Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged as relatively mild inflation data clears the way for interest rate cuts after the weakening of the labor market, and the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable. However, in the short term, the resonance upward movement of the Chinese and US equity markets has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and the upward movement of the gold price may still need to build momentum. The price of spot gold is relatively mild below 3500, and its elasticity may increase after breaking through this level. The recovery of risk appetite brings greater short - term elasticity to silver, but the pressure at the 40 - dollar mark is still obvious, and its breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Fed could have cut interest rates in June and July, there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut and a series of consecutive interest rate cuts, the current Fed interest rate should be further lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, the Fed's interest rate is restrictive, he is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, the Fed's spending is not supervised, he is considering recruiting relevant talents from the private sector to serve in the Fed, he will not support stopping the release of employment reports, and the Fed may cut interest rates in advance if the data is accurate [2]. - Russia responded to the "Putin - Biden meeting" regarding territorial issues. Russian Foreign Ministry Deputy Spokesperson Fadeyev stated that Russia's territorial composition is determined in the national constitution, and the goals of the Russian delegation in the Russia - US leader negotiations will be based entirely on national interests [2]. - Trump's list of candidates for Fed Chairman has expanded to 11. Two government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to replace Fed Chairman Powell when his term expires next May, including three previously unannounced candidates. Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview all candidates, screen the list, and submit the final list to the president for a decision, but no timetable was provided [3]. Price Logic - Yesterday, the gold price rose slightly, and silver recorded a larger increase. US inflation rose as expected, and the impact of tariffs was limited. After the weakening of the labor market, relatively mild inflation data clears the way for interest rate cuts, and the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable. Fed Chairman Powell may give a clearer statement at the global central bank annual meeting next week. The dominant logic in the past quarter, "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest rate cut expectations", is shifting to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest rate cut expectations". The change of the Fed leadership may bring a more dovish path in the long - term and a re - consideration of the Fed's independence [4]. Outlook - This week, the range of spot London gold is expected to be between 3340 and 3500 US dollars per ounce, and the range of spot London silver is expected to be between 37 and 40 US dollars per ounce [7].

IEA⽉报表⽰原油2026年过剩幅度创纪 录，原油带动油化⼯回落 国际原油期货延续震荡整理态势，宏观的利好并未对原油价格有较强 的提振。IEA发布最新月报，它表示，由于需求增长放缓、供应增加， 明年全球石油库存将以每天296万桶的速度增加，甚至超过2020年疫情时 期的平均增速；同时两年的全球石油需求增速将不到2023年时的一半。 与低迷的原油市场相反地是股市的持续走强，美国通胀数据表现温和， 美股飙升至纪录新高，全球其他地区股市整体格局也表现亮眼。根据航空 客运飞行计划，全球航空煤油需求的季节性高峰即将逐步消退，这对中质 馏分都有拖累作用，柴油裂差我们当前以震荡思路对待。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-08-14 板块逻辑： 8月13日日盘焦煤价格在临近前期高点附近大幅回落，这显然大幅拖 累了下游的煤化工。油化工也因为原油的颓势而低迷不振。化工产业链可 能接下来一段时间将演绎供需过剩的基本面逻辑。9月合约交割在即， 高库存的烯烃、PTA等品种很可能跟随原料展开一波小幅调整。未来需求 走势如何？是否还有金九银十，则决定了1月合约的成色。 原油：地缘担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Bullish Oscillation | | Protein Meal | Oscillation | | Corn and Starch | Bearish Oscillation | | Hogs | Oscillation | | Natural Rubber and 20 - rubber | Oscillation | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillation | | Cotton | Bullish Oscillation | | Sugar | Oscillation | | Pulp | Oscillation | | Logs | Bearish Oscillation | [7][8][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple favorable factors drive the oils and fats market to run strongly. Protein meal is affected by emotions and supply pressure. Corn shows signs of restocking downstream. Hog futures are expected to correct. Rubber experiences a pull - back after a rise. Synthetic rubber has limited variables. Pulp is considered bullish in the short - term. Cotton prices are boosted by a reduction in US cotton production. Sugar prices rebound due to supply expectation adjustments. Logs are affected by new warehouse receipt pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: USDA's August report unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, increased the yield per acre by 1.1 bushels to 53.6 bushels, and cut the expected yield by 1.16 million tons to 116.82 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons [1][7]. - **Logic**: Multiple factors contributed to the rise of domestic oils. From a macro perspective, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the US - China tariff policy is extended. From an industrial perspective, the reduction in US soybean area and production, lower - than - expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia, and anti - dumping rulings on Canadian rapeseed are positive. However, US soybean growth is good, and palm oil is in the production season [2][7]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is likely to continue to run strongly in the near future [3][7]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 13, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also increased [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is tightening. Domestically, there is short - term inventory pressure, but long - term demand is expected to increase. The anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is positive for the far - month [8]. - **Outlook**: The market pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weakness and far - term strength will continue. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low prices [8]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: The prices of corn in Jinzhou Port and the domestic average showed small changes. The closing price of the main contract increased [10]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable to weak, with supply inventory being digested and demand being weak. There are signs of restocking in South China ports. New - season corn production is normal [10]. - **Outlook**: There is uncertainty in the short - term due to old - crop de - stocking, and there is a downward drive after new - crop listing [10]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 13, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased slightly, and the futures price decreased [11]. - **Logic**: After the end of the symposium, the market hype subsided. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume increases. In the medium - term, the supply will increase. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog futures market fluctuates greatly. The spot and near - term have high - weight inventory pressure, while the far - term has a bullish expectation. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Cambodia's latex exports decreased in the first 7 months of 2025 [14]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices adjusted after a rise. It is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid [14]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed increases [16]. - **Logic**: The BR futures followed natural rubber to adjust. It is affected by natural rubber sentiment and raw material cost support. The supply of butadiene is tight, and downstream demand is good [16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the futures may run strongly in an oscillatory manner [16]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the number of registered warehouse receipts and the closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA report cut US cotton production, tightening global supply. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. The suspension of tariffs boosts market confidence [17]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly before new - flower listing [17]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts increased [18]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short - term, supply pressure increases seasonally, but the rebound of the external market supports the domestic market [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices have a downward drive; in the short - term, they are expected to run in the range of 5600 - 5900 [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong increased [18]. - **Logic**: The pulp fundamentals are weak, with high supply and weak demand overseas. However, the price is at a low level, and the negative factors have been fully priced in [18]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [18]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price weakened due to new warehouse receipt pressure. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. There is a marginal improvement in fundamentals [20]. - **Outlook**: The log futures are expected to run in the range of 800 - 850 [20].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Domestic Commodity Futures Mostly Decline, Black Series Generally Close Lower - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250814" [1] Group 2: Market Performance Domestic Main Commodities - Index futures generally showed an upward trend. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.96%, a weekly increase of 2.15%, a monthly increase of 2.81%, a quarterly increase of 7.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.37% [4] - Treasury futures mostly had minor fluctuations. The 2 - year Treasury futures had a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.02%, a quarterly decrease of 0.13%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.59% [4] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index decreased by 0.20% weekly, 21.98% monthly, 13.4% quarterly, and 9.60% year - to - date [4] - Interest rates showed different trends. The 10Y Chinese bond yield increased by 7.9bp quarterly and 0.1bp year - to - date, while the 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 5bp quarterly and decreased by 26bp year - to - date [4] Popular Industries - Some industries like the grass - colored gold industry had good performance, with a daily increase of 1.28%, a weekly increase of 4.59%, a monthly increase of 4.37%, a quarterly increase of 11.54%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.85%. While some industries like the pharmaceutical industry had a daily decrease of 0.86%, a weekly decrease of 0.88%, a monthly decrease of 0.88%, a quarterly increase of 12.63%, and a year - to - date increase of 21.76% [4] Overseas Commodities - In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 1.44% daily, 0.43% weekly, 9.03% monthly, 2.91% quarterly, and 12.23% year - to - date [4] - Precious metals such as COMEX gold increased by 0.17% daily, decreased by 1.69% weekly, increased by 1.71% monthly, increased by 2.55% quarterly, and increased by 28.81% year - to - date [4] - In the non - ferrous metals sector, LME copper increased by 1.17% daily, 0.74% weekly, 2.43% monthly, decreased by 0.38% quarterly, and increased by 12.05% year - to - date [4] - In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans increased by 2.18% daily, 4.64% weekly, 4.24% monthly, 0.46% quarterly, and 2.20% year - to - date [4] Other Domestic Commodities - Many commodities showed various trends. For example, the shipping container freight rate to Europe (ECSA) increased by 5.96% daily, decreased by 7.17% weekly, decreased by 6.46% monthly, decreased by 0.44% quarterly, and decreased by 40.93% year - to - date [5] Group 3: Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - The overseas market is facing a situation where the US economic fundamentals are weak. The China - US tariff negotiation period is postponed to November 12. The US CPI in July met expectations. The upcoming tariff implementation in August may test market sentiment. The internal personnel change in the Fed and the US CPI data next week will guide market expectations for interest rate cuts and risk appetite [9] Domestic Macro - China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face the risk of decline and restricted re - export trade [9] Asset Views - Domestically, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month. Maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. Overseas, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations and maintain the allocation of US bonds. Slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from the weak US dollar and reduce the allocation of US dollar money market funds to be cautious about interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [9] Group 4: Viewpoints on Different Sectors Finance - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term outlook is a fluctuating upward trend. Stock index options: Layout offensive strategies, with a short - term fluctuating upward trend. Treasury futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term fluctuating trend [10] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards as the market returns to the logic of the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, with the US economic fundamentals weakening [10] Shipping - The shipping container freight rate to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the market focuses on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [10] Black Building Materials - Most products in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, are expected to fluctuate. For example, steel has strong cost support, and iron ore has a healthy fundamental situation [10] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. have different short - term trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate downward, while aluminum is expected to continue to recover, but the overall demand weakness needs to be noted [10] Energy and Chemicals - Most products in this sector are expected to fluctuate. For example, crude oil is expected to fluctuate downward due to geopolitical concerns easing and supply pressure remaining. Some chemicals like LPG are expected to fluctuate due to cost and demand factors [12] Agriculture - Oils, fats, and protein meals are expected to continue to be strong, while corn/starch is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [12]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-08-13 股市延续配置思路，债市情绪仍偏弱 股指期货：沪指逼近前⾼ 股指期权：续持进攻策略 国债期货：债市情绪仍偏弱 股指期货方面，周二权益市场延续上行走势，其中沪指逼近2024年10 月前高，科创50、创业板指异动大涨。盘面情绪强势，这主要与中美贸易 联合声明有关，前期上涨幅度较少的上证50早盘拉升。另外，昨日盘面一 大特征是大市值个股表现突出，如科创50表现显著强于科创100及科创20 0。我们认为和几个因素有关，其一，沪指面临向上突破压力，历史上突 破前夕一般需要大盘股支持，部分投机资金在大市值个股中寻找机会， 其二，也可能与大机构资金集中入市有关，前期踏空资金寻找低位补涨方 向。目前来看，市场对于负面因素并不敏感，短期延续配置思路，若沪指 向上突破，仍是小市值因子占优。 股指期权方面，昨日权益市场持续震荡偏强，科创创业板块强势。 期权方面，市场整体成交额小幅回落，其中大部分品种流动性回落，科创 创业相关品种依旧交投活跃。期权情绪指标明显走强，尾盘看涨期权隐含 波动率快速提升，推测买权进场交易。目前行情上涨有所 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for each metal, the following outlooks are provided: - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: High - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [8] - Aluminum: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Range - bound oscillation in the short term, with potential for spread recovery later [12] - Zinc: Oscillating in the short term, with a potential decline in the medium - to - long term [14] - Lead: Oscillating [16] - Nickel: Wide - range oscillation in the short term, hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21] - Stainless Steel: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [23] - Tin: Oscillating, with potential for increased volatility in August [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs attention. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening, and the risk of weakening demand is increasing, which exerts negative pressure on base metal prices. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and the supply disturbances of copper, aluminum, and tin still support base metal prices. It is recommended to short copper and zinc on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Sino - US tariff suspension is extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply constraint remains, but the demand is marginally weakening. The follow - up focus is on the tariff implementation [6][7]. - **Alumina**: Shanxi Province adjusts the registration authority of some mineral species, and the alumina futures price rises significantly. In the short term, the futures price is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues, with high volatility. The fundamental situation is relatively weak [8]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the consumption quality, and aluminum prices continue to rise. The short - term supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - **Zinc**: The price of the black series rebounds again, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply is loosening, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - **Lead**: The cost still provides support, and lead prices are oscillating. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the demand is slightly affected by the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the futures price, and the fundamental situation is marginally weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price goes up. The cost has increased recently, and the follow - up focus is on the demand during the peak season and inventory changes [23]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply is tight, but the demand is marginally weakening in the second half of the year. The price is expected to oscillate, with potential for increased volatility in August [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals in this section, such as copper, alumina, aluminum, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring content.

Report Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][19]. Core Viewpoints - The coal mine production restriction expectation cannot be falsified in the short term, the coking coal supply is still shrinking, the steel inventory is low, and there is a strong expectation of production restriction before major events, which strongly supports the price. In a stable fundamental state, there may be a resonance between macro - positive policies and the industry in the future. Recently, the black market has been highly volatile and will mainly oscillate within the current range before new drivers emerge [3]. Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and no obvious increase [3]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to regular maintenance, the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction due to profit reasons is small in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are production restriction policies in the second half of the month [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the iron ore port area increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation range was limited [3]. - Outlook: The fundamental negative drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [3]. Carbon Element - Supply: Some coal mines in the main production areas reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production checks, and some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production. Although the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, there were restrictions on some traders' haulage recently, which may affect future customs clearance [4]. - Demand: The coke output was temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the inventory of some coal mines had started to accumulate, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market [4]. - Outlook: Under supply disturbances, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures price is expected to be more likely to rise than to fall in the short term [4]. Alloys - Manganese Silicate: The cost support was continuously strengthened by the continuous increase in coke prices. The wait - and - see sentiment in the manganese ore market increased, and the port ore prices remained firm. The downstream demand was still resilient, but the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The output is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is healthy. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw - sheet inventory increased month - on - month. After the futures price dropped, the spot market sentiment declined, and the upstream production and sales decreased significantly [5]. - Supply: One production line was still waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with no prominent internal contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances [5]. - Outlook: Although the cost support strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals were still weak. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. Steel - Core Logic: The Sino - US tariff suspension is expected to maintain export resilience. The arrival of delivery resources may increase supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of five major steel products is accumulating. The fundamental situation has marginally weakened, but the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures price [10]. - Outlook: Focus on steel mill production - restriction and terminal demand [10]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume slightly decreased. Spot market prices rose. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to last year's level. Steel enterprise profitability reached a three - year high, and the molten iron output decreased slightly. The port inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals, with limited inventory accumulation [10]. - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, the price is expected to oscillate [11]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The supply decreased as the shipping willingness was low. The demand increased as the electric - furnace profit was good, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days were at a low level [12]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate [12]. Coke - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to production - restriction rumors. Spot prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke production was stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the iron - water output remained high. The supply - demand structure was tight, and the price was still supported [13]. - Outlook: The market has started the sixth round of price increases, and attention should be paid to possible parade - related production - restriction policies [13]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to supply disturbances. Spot prices were stable. Supply was affected by production - reduction factors in the main production areas and potential customs - clearance restrictions on Mongolian coal. Demand was firm, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment [15]. - Outlook: Supply recovery is expected to be slow, and the futures price is likely to rise in the short term [15]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The market's expectation of supply reduction increased. Supply capacity was not cleared, and production was at a high level. Demand for heavy soda decreased, and light - soda downstream procurement was weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and there was significant short - term delivery pressure [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [18]. Manganese Silicate - Core Logic: The futures price was under pressure due to increased supply. The spot price was firm. The cost increased, and the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space in the long term [18]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The futures price oscillated as production recovery accelerated. The spot price was supported by cost. Supply was expected to increase, and demand from the steel - making and metal - magnesium industries was resilient. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [19]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the long - term fundamentals have potential concerns [19].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 锂供应扰动延续，锂价继续领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：锂供应扰动延续，锂价继续领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：新能源金属交易逻辑如下，中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落 后产能，投资者对硅供应端收缩预期增强，国内锂供应也出现扰动， 期货日报记者证实江西锂矿大厂停产，周二智利也传出碳酸锂生产线 生产事故，锂供应扰动提振价格，锂价领涨新能源金属。中短期来 看，供应端收缩预期和成本抬升预期强化，这对新能源金属价格有支 撑，锂供应扰动有望短期推高锂价，需谨防锂价上极端风险，可继续 通过看涨期权押注锂价涨势；而工业硅和多晶硅现实供需端面临产能 产量高位，供需趋弱，硅价进一步涨势放缓，密切留意产业链动向。 中长期来看，若供应端无实质性收缩或者需求端无明显好转，硅价存 在回落压力；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，碳酸锂供应高增将限制锂价 上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪起伏，硅价持续波动。 多晶硅观点：市场情绪反复，多晶硅价格宽幅波动。 碳酸锂观点：情绪有所消退，锂价尾盘回调。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 蛋白粕：加菜籽反倾销初步认定，菜粕远月大幅上涨 玉米/淀粉：市场延续弱势震荡 生猪：现货维持弱势，盘面窄幅震荡 橡胶：产地恶劣天气预期，胶价维持偏强震荡 合成橡胶：窄幅震荡上行 纸浆：阔叶价格持续回暖，纸浆阶段维持偏多看待 棉花：中美经贸会谈落地，或对市场情绪有所提振 白糖：主产国产糖量预期调整，外盘反弹 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间运行 【异动品种】 蛋⽩粕观点：加菜籽反倾销初步认定，菜粕远⽉⼤幅上涨 (1)2025年8月12日,国际大豆贸易升贴水报价:美湾豆204美分/蒲式耳， 周环比变化-11美分/蒲式耳或-5.12%,同比变化-36美分/蒲式耳或-15% ;美西豆178美分/蒲式耳，周环比变化-10美分/蒲式耳或-5.32%,同比变化 -52美分/蒲式耳或-22.6087%;南美豆308美分/蒲式耳，环比变化-19美分/ 蒲式耳或-5.81%，同比变化61美分/蒲式耳或24.6964%。 (2)2025年8月12日，中国进口大豆压榨利润均值186.28元/吨，周环比变 化+6.51元/吨或+3.62%%，同比变化684.54元/吨或137.3861%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Egypt is an open - market economy with a relatively complete industrial, agricultural, and service system. Its economy is service - led, followed by light industries such as textile and food processing. Oil and gas, tourism, remittances, and the Suez Canal are its four major foreign exchange income sources [1][9]. - Egypt is rich in energy resources, with significant reserves of oil, gas, phosphate, and iron. It plays an important role in global oil and gas trade due to its control of key transportation routes [2]. - In recent years, Egypt has faced challenges in energy production, such as a decline in crude oil production, while also actively promoting energy - related infrastructure construction and renewable energy development [14][29]. Summary by Directory 1. Egypt National Overview - **Geographical Location**: Egypt covers 1001,000 square kilometers, spanning Asia and Africa. It has a long coastline and significant climate differences, with a Mediterranean climate in the north and a tropical desert climate in most other areas [8]. - **Economic Overview**: With a population of about 104 million and over 10 million overseas migrants, Egypt's GDP in 2024 was $403 billion with a 3% growth rate. Services, industry, and agriculture account for 46%, 36%, and 18% of GDP respectively. It is a major food importer and has good tourism development conditions. Its main resources include oil, gas, phosphate, and iron, and its main trade partners are China, the UAE, and the US. In the 2023/2024 fiscal year, its foreign trade volume was $104.7 billion [9][11]. - **Historical Politics**: As one of the four ancient civilizations, Egypt has a long history of dynasties. It has been successively conquered by various powers and finally became the Arab Republic of Egypt in 1971. It plays an important role in international affairs and joined the BRICS in 2024 [12][13]. 2. Oil and Other Liquids - **Crude Oil Grades**: Egypt has three main crude oil grades: Suez, Belayim, and Western Desert. Suez and Belayim are medium - sulfur crude oils, while Western Desert is light - low - sulfur crude oil [14]. - **Production**: From 2014 - 2023, the average daily production of liquid fuels was about 694,000 barrels, mainly crude oil and lease condensate. However, due to a lack of major oil discoveries, production has declined [14]. - **Refineries**: Egypt has 8 refineries with a total rated capacity of about 763,000 barrels per day. Some refineries are being upgraded, such as the Middle East and Assiut refineries [17]. 3. Natural Gas - **Production and Consumption**: From 2013 - 2022, the average annual production and consumption of dry natural gas were about 2 Tcf. Consumption has been increasing, but production growth has stagnated since the 2020s [20]. - **Projects**: Multiple offshore gas fields, such as the Zohr field, have promoted gas production. The government is developing new projects, and in 2023, Egypt flared about 66 Bcf of gas [20][21]. 4. Coal - Egypt does not produce coal and relies entirely on imports. The average annual coal consumption from 2013 - 2022 was about 2.8 million short tons, mainly for the industrial sector, especially construction [24]. 5. Electricity - **Installed Capacity**: From 2013 - 2022, the total power - generation installed capacity almost doubled, with most growth from fossil - fuel power generation. Non - hydro renewable energy capacity also increased significantly, reaching 3.4 GW in 2022 [26]. - **Renewable Energy Goals**: The Egyptian government aims for 42% of total installed capacity to come from renewable energy by 2035. Projects such as a 10 GW wind project and a 10 GW solar project are in development [29]. - **Nuclear Power**: Egypt is starting to develop nuclear power. The El Dabaa nuclear power plant is under construction, with a planned total installed capacity of 4.8 GW by 2030 [30]. 6. Energy Trade - **Oil and Other Liquids**: Egypt controls important oil and gas transportation routes. From 2013 - 2022, it exported an average of about 239,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate and imported about 111,000 barrels per day. In 2023, it exported about 166,000 barrels per day, mainly to Europe [31][32]. - **Natural Gas**: Egypt has two major regional gas pipelines. From 2013 - 2022, it exported an average of about 126 Bcf of gas and imported about 122 Bcf. In 2023, it exported about 173 Bcf of LNG, mainly to Europe [35][37].