Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On March 24, 2026, the platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rebounded, with the platinum main contract rising 3.61% to 487.40 yuan/gram and the palladium main contract rising 4.89% to 359.50 yuan/gram [1]. - Platinum: Market sentiment improved, and platinum prices rebounded from a low level. Trump's remarks changed market expectations for the US - Iran situation, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices and an improved interest - rate cut expectation. However, Iran's attitude has not significantly eased, and Trump's remarks may be inconsistent. In the long term, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still affects market expectations and platinum prices. The outlook is for a volatile trend [2]. - Palladium: Market sentiment improved, and palladium prices recovered. Supply - side uncertainties continue, with the US imposing anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium and Europe considering new sanctions. Demand faces structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is loosening, and in the short term, there are still supply disturbances. The outlook is for a volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Index - On March 24, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2515.21, down 0.65%; the commodity 20 index was 2795.15, down 0.56%; the industrial products index was 2570.33, down 0.49% [48]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On March 24, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2582.35, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day decline of 3.44%, a 1 - month decline of 4.20%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.86% [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "stagflation" concern has slightly eased, and major asset classes have rebounded. However, due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term [1]. - The Iran - geopolitical situation continues to impact the financial market. Trump's statement about peace talks with Iran led to a sharp decline in crude oil on the evening of the 23rd and a rebound in major asset classes, but Iran officials denied direct negotiations with the US on the 24th. This statement can somewhat ease the market's concern about the "stagflation" risk [1]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target for the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy, and improves the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and external demand remains resilient [1]. - The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation faces large uncertain fluctuations, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Macro - The Iran - geopolitical situation continues to affect the financial market. Trump's statement on peace talks led to a sharp decline in crude oil on the evening of the 23rd and a rebound in major asset classes. But on the 24th, Iran officials denied direct negotiations with the US. Although Trump's statement cannot substantially relieve the Strait blockade, it can ease the market's concern about the "stagflation" risk to some extent [1]. 3.2 Domestic Macro - The "15th Five - Year Plan" continues the "14th Five - Year" indicator framework, raises the target for the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds relevant indicators, and improves relevant systems. The current domestic macro - economy is stable, and external demand remains resilient [1]. 3.3 Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag of the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation faces large uncertain fluctuations, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets [1]. 3.4 Market Conditions of Various Varieties - **Financial**: Stock index futures show a shrinking - volume rebound, index options' implied volatility falls, and the sentiment has not fully warmed up. Treasury bond futures price in the easing of the US - Iran situation, and the long - end sentiment of bonds warms up. All are expected to be volatile [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a post - oversold repair - type rebound in the short term, but need to be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. They are expected to be volatile [4]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line has decreased month - on - month, and the spot market has declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by repeated geopolitical conflicts, the market is expected to be volatile. For example, steel has strong cost support, and iron ore fluctuates at a high level [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The pessimistic sentiment has eased, and basic metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate. For example, aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, and nickel is expected to be strongly volatile [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The Middle East geopolitical situation remains deadlocked, and the energy and chemical sector continues to fluctuate at a high level. For example, crude oil fluctuates at a high level, and methanol fluctuates within a range [5]. - **Agriculture**: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price continues to weaken. Natural rubber rebounds slightly, and synthetic rubber fluctuates at a high level. Cotton fluctuates within a range [5]. 3.5 Financial Market and Industry Index Fluctuations - **Financial Market Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, the stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, while the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different trends. The US dollar index fell, and the US and Chinese bond yields also changed [7]. - **Industry Index Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, most industries in the CITIC industry index rose, such as non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel. However, the petroleum and petrochemical industry fell [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodity Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil rose slightly, while NYMEX natural gas and ICE UK natural gas fell. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also showed different trends [10][11]. - **Domestic Commodity Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, most domestic commodities showed different degrees of fluctuations. For example, gold and silver rose significantly, while crude oil and fuel oil fell significantly [12][13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international crude oil futures continue to oscillate at a high level. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the impact on Russian crude oil exports have led to a tight supply situation. Although the short - term sanctions relief has slightly eased the tightness, the key lies in whether the strait can be unsealed. Investors should view oil prices with an oscillatory mindset [1]. - Chemical product prices have been oscillating recently. The cost of energy is the anchor for chemicals. In the context of reduced supply in oil - chemical industries, processing fees have been compressed. There is an expectation of valuation repair in the future. If the geopolitical situation eases, the decline in upstream energy prices may be greater than that of chemicals; if it persists, chemicals may experience a supplementary increase [1]. - Overall, the energy and chemical sector continues to be in an oscillatory pattern, awaiting the clarity of the geopolitical situation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and oil prices are oscillating at a high level. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a weakening of oil prices, but there is still great uncertainty in the geopolitical outlook. The current crude oil market faces a large supply gap, and the potential release of floating storage in Iran and Russia is relatively limited. The pressure on Persian Gulf countries to cut production remains. Future expectation deviations mainly come from the progress of the US - Iran conflict, the passage of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on energy facilities. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Supply shortages persist, and the fluctuation of geopolitical expectations intensifies, so oil prices are expected to oscillate [7]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The sharp decline in crude oil has driven down the asphalt futures price. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core influence on oil prices. The market's concern about the resumption of US - Iran negotiations has led to a decline in asphalt futures prices. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly, and there is an expectation of a significant decline in refinery operations. The reduction in asphalt production by various groups may drive up the asphalt - fuel oil spread. The supply of asphalt is expected to further decline, while the demand side has a large inventory accumulation pressure. Currently, the asphalt futures price is undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core driver of oil prices. The market's concern about the resumption of US - Iran negotiations has led to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil mean that the tense situation in Iran affects not only the export of Iranian fuel oil and Middle - East fuel oil but also the supply of Middle - East natural gas. However, the Singapore fuel oil cracking spread has fallen from a record high, indicating that the refinery feed demand and power - generation demand may be suppressed by high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The expected increase in Venezuela's oil production exerts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen from a high level following crude oil, and the market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main - product attributes, and its valuation has been significantly repaired compared to crude oil and asphalt during the oil - price increase. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The low - sulfur fuel oil - asphalt spread has returned to a high level, and the valuation is in a moderately high state. The high profit is expected to drive an increase in low - sulfur fuel oil production. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green - fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current valuation is relatively low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: The cost pressure on downstream polyester factories remains significant. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the end of the US - Iran war and the reopening of the strait has led to a significant correction in international oil prices, and downstream chemicals are expected to be more affected by cost. Fundamentally, the reduction in the operation of domestic and foreign PX plants affects the future supply expectation of PX. Although the polyester sales volume has increased after the sharp decline in oil prices, the current PX/PTA prices are still at a high level, and the cost pressure forces the continuous increase in the expectation of polyester production reduction. The negative feedback on the demand side suppresses the PX price and profit. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. In the short - term, the PX price is guided by cost, with strong support at the bottom. The logic of buying at low prices in the medium - term remains. The positive spread between PX05 - 09 months should be reduced when it is high, and the PXN is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The decline in cost has led to an increase in polyester sales volume. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price has fallen from a high level, and the PX price has followed suit. Although the decline in cost has driven an increase in downstream polyester sales volume, the current high cost still exerts great pressure on polyester factories. The short - term spot inventory is still relatively loose, and the basis is weakly sorted. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is expected that PTA will maintain a wide - range oscillatory trend in the short - term. The positive spread between TA05 - 09 months should be reduced when it is high. The short - term volatility increases, and it is not recommended to try to catch the top in the short - term [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil and commodity sentiment dominate the fluctuation, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The current price of pure benzene is mainly dominated by the geopolitical situation, with strong repeatability of disturbances. On the energy side, the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a tight supply of crude - oil spot and pushed up oil prices. The supply of Asian naphtha is tightening, which may affect the operation of domestic and foreign cracking plants. On the supply side, some refineries have reduced their operations. On the demand side, the downstream profit is acceptable, and there is no negative - feedback pressure. The value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil has increased. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with an upward trend. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the production of domestic and foreign refineries may be reduced, and the de - stocking of pure benzene is advanced [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitics brings positive factors to styrene supply and demand, and styrene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The styrene price is still dominated by the geopolitical situation, with strong repeatability of disturbances. On the supply side, some plants are under maintenance or have postponed maintenance, and some long - stopped plants are restarting. On the demand side, the overall downstream profit has declined, and the support for the price has weakened. The ethylene price is strong, squeezing the styrene profit, and some factories may reduce production or conduct maintenance in the future. There is an expectation of new exports of styrene. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with an upward trend. Affected by the geopolitical situation, domestic and foreign production may be reduced, and export demand may increase [15]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation continues to disturb market sentiment, and ethylene glycol maintains a high - level consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The high - level correction of international oil prices has significantly weakened the support for chemicals. The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main ports will drop to a low level in early April. With exports and regional supply adjustments, the port inventory will be rapidly reduced. The market will continue to oscillate widely when the import supply of ethylene glycol cannot be effectively realized. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the medium - term, and to maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude in the short - term. Pay attention to reducing the EG05 - 09 spread when it is high [17]. 3.1.10 Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The polyester staple - fiber market is highly polarized. Factories are holding up prices, while downstream buyers are waiting and watching. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price fluctuates widely, and the market sentiment strongly games around the geopolitical situation. The prices of polyester raw materials fluctuate in line with the cost. Fundamentally, the supply of polyester staple fiber continues to increase, but the downstream trading is average, and most buyers are waiting and watching. The cost of raw materials held by yarn mills is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the digestion and acceptance ability of the subsequent process. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price of polyester staple fiber follows the upstream, and there is certain support for the processing fee at the bottom. The short - term price volatility is large, and cautious operation is recommended [18]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: The cost volatility intensifies, and polyester bottle chips passively follow. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has corrected from a high level, and polyester bottle chips have followed the upstream raw materials to rise and then fall. The overall absolute price change is limited. It is expected that the short - term price trend will still mainly follow the upstream cost. The current supply - demand situation of polyester bottle chips is relatively tight, and the overall fundamentals are relatively good. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee at the bottom is enhanced. The position of going long PR and short TA should be temporarily exited [20]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and methanol oscillates within a range. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, 2026, the methanol futures price oscillated weakly. The inland market continued to be in a relatively strong oscillatory state, but the overall procurement intensity of downstream in northern Shandong was average. The inventory of methanol production enterprises and ports has decreased. The overseas situation regarding the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The situation in Iran is full of uncertainties, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium, which is difficult to disappear in the short - term. The price has room to rise but is restricted by the downstream's resistance to high prices and weak demand. - **Risk Factors**: Upward risk: A sharp increase in coal prices, favorable macro - policies, and supply - side disturbances; Downward risk: Downstream negative feedback [23]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Urea oscillates and consolidates under the game between long and short positions. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, 2026, urea oscillated weakly. The supply side maintains a high - level daily production, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand side has a weakening agricultural demand and insufficient industrial demand. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the spot price is suppressed by the policy - guided price. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The current fundamentals of urea are relatively stable. The supply remains at a high level, and the agricultural demand support is slightly loosened while the industrial demand is moderately recovering. The sustainability of the futures - price increase driven by market sentiment needs to be considered. - **Risk Factors**: Upward risk: A sharp increase in coal prices, favorable macro - factors, and unexpected demand; Downward risk: A sharp decline in coal prices, policy - control risks, and unexpected demand [25]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of geopolitical cooling disturbs the market, and LLDPE should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, the LLDPE futures price fell back, and the market game was intense. The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but there is still great uncertainty in the geopolitical outlook. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, the import of LLDPE may decrease. The energy - chemical sentiment is still volatile in the short - term, and the refinery operation rate has declined, which still supports the near - term contracts. The spot price fluctuates, and the downstream trading is average. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market game is intense under geopolitical disturbances, and the downstream trading is average. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: A decline in oil prices and a weakening of geopolitical disturbances; Bearish risk: An increase in oil prices and a deterioration of the geopolitical situation [29]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of geopolitical relaxation disturbs the market, and PP prices fall. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, the PP futures price fell. The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but there is still great uncertainty in the geopolitical outlook. The direct impact on the PP import is limited. The oil - based and PDH profits of PP refineries are still under pressure, which supports the price, while the coal - based profit has been significantly repaired. The overall operation rate is at a low level, and the spot trading is average. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The spot trading is average, and the market has a fierce long - short game under the disturbance of geopolitical news. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: A decline in oil prices and a weakening of geopolitical disturbances; Bearish risk: An increase in oil prices and a deterioration of the geopolitical situation [30]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations disturb the market, and PL prices fall. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, the PL futures price fell. The reduction in supply has a significant boosting effect, and enterprises' quotations remain firm. Downstream factories purchase as needed, and the actual - order trading is relatively scattered. However, some auctions have a small premium, pushing up the trading center. The short - term powder - material profit is compressed, and the acceptance of downstream factories is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The operation rate has declined, but the downstream powder - material profit is still under pressure. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: A decline in oil prices and a weakening of geopolitical disturbances; Bearish risk: An increase in oil prices and a deterioration of the geopolitical situation [31]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The impact is mainly from sentiment, and PVC should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market is currently gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the commodity sentiment has cooled down. The geopolitical conflict has not been substantially alleviated, and there are still expectations of cost support and supply disturbances in the energy - chemical sector. At the micro level, both domestic and foreign production has been reduced, and the PVC inventory has been reduced. The overall supply is decreasing, the downstream operation rate has improved, the enthusiasm for chasing price increases is not high, the overseas price has soared, and the export signing is average this week. The cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and enterprises are in a loss state. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market is gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the sentiment in the chemical sector has cooled down. If the geopolitical situation is not substantially alleviated, there is still a risk of chlorine - alkali production reduction, and the market should be cautiously optimistic. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: Geopolitical cooling and less - than - expected PVC de - stocking; Bearish risk: Geopolitical heating up and an increase in PVC exports [33]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical sentiment has declined, and caustic soda should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market is currently gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the commodity sentiment has cooled down. The geopolitical conflict has not been substantially alleviated, and there are still expectations of cost support and supply disturbances in the energy - chemical sector. At the micro level, both domestic and foreign production has been reduced, the caustic - soda export has improved, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. The alumina marginal - device profit is poor, and production reduction has been realized. The demand for caustic soda has been marginally boosted. The inventory of large alumina factories in Shandong has been reduced. The enthusiasm for chasing price increases of 32% caustic soda is average. The export orders continue, and the price of 50% caustic soda has been raised. The overall supply is decreasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market is gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the sentiment in the chemical sector has cooled down. If the geopolitical situation is not substantially alleviated, there is still a risk of chlorine - alkali production reduction, and the market should be cautiously optimistic. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: Geopolitical cooling and weak spot market; Bearish risk: Geopolitical heating up and supply reduction [

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market had a volume - shrinking rebound, and the right - side signal for the future market is not clear. There is a possibility of a callback to build a bottom again. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3][9] - The implied volatility of stock index options declined, and the sentiment has not fully warmed up. It is recommended to continue holding the call option defense strategy [4][10] - The market priced in the easing of the US - Iran situation, and the sentiment of the long - end of the bond market warmed up. The long - end of treasury bond futures may be volatile, and the short - end has relatively strong support [5][10] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the stock market had a volume - shrinking rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78%, the CSI 1000 rose 2.59%, and the Science and Technology Innovation Composite Index rose 3.24%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by more than 36 billion compared with the previous day. Small and micro - cap stocks were strong. The weak - dollar and anti - inflation sectors were strong, and the energy sector pulled back [3][9] - Overseas risks have not subsided, the stock market volume shrank significantly, and the support of institutional funds for broad - based ETFs is uncertain. So, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3][9] Stock Index Options - On Tuesday, the underlying market showed a "W" - shaped trend. The total trading volume of financial options decreased significantly. The implied volatility of each variety decreased during the day but was still higher than last week's level. The PCR of positions among varieties was divergent, and the skew index mostly increased, indicating a cautious view of the future market [4][10] - Considering the high uncertainty of external events, it is risky to bet on medium - term short - volatility or reversal strategies too early. It is recommended to continue holding the call option defense strategy [4][10] Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, the long - and short - end trends of the main contracts of treasury bond futures continued to diverge. The prices of T and TL rose, while the prices of TF and TS fell. The T main contract opened higher and closed up after fluctuating [5][10] - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 3.35 billion yuan, and the capital market remained stable. The market priced in the easing of the US - Iran situation, and the long - end sentiment of the bond market warmed up [5][10] - The result of the US - Iran negotiation is undetermined. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns. The central bank will renew 500 billion MLF on the 25th, and the short - end has relatively strong support, while the long - end may be volatile [5][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts cause repeated disturbances. Coal and coke prices fluctuate sharply following crude oil prices. The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties make iron ore futures and spot prices strong. Affected by the expected energy - saving and emission - reduction production cuts in the industry, the manganese - silicon futures rose strongly but then fell back from the high level. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, there is still expected pressure on coking coal warehouse receipts, and the supply - demand surplus pattern of glass and soda ash remains unchanged. After the sector prices rise, there is still a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to the disturbances from the geopolitical end and the iron ore supply end [1]. - Overall, the peak - season expectations are cautious, and the upward drive from the real - world end remains to be verified. There are still uncertainties in domestic and foreign macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, the price support will be strong; if the conflicts ease, the prices may face a correction [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties support iron ore futures and spot prices. The supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upper - limit valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. In the short term, scrap steel arrivals remain stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue in a weak balance, with short - term oscillation expected [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - In the short term, the supply and demand of coke both increase, and the resumption speed of hot metal production may be faster. The price of the spot cost end continues to rise, and the expectation of a successful spot price increase for coke is strong. The futures are expected to follow the coking coal at the cost end. Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of coking coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflicts ease and trading returns to the fundamentals, there will still be correction pressure on the coking coal and coke futures [2]. 3.3 Alloys - Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties are difficult to disprove. However, based on the fundamentals of loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transmission for manganese - silicon, in the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of correction for the valuation level of the futures higher than the cost. For ferrosilicon, the problem of over - capacity is still relatively serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose. In the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the cost [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expected disturbances in glass supply, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales cannot continue to improve, high inventories will always suppress prices. The short - term supply of soda ash is stable at a high level, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6]. 3.5 Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: Cost support is strong. Pay attention to peak - season demand. Spot trading is average. After the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, iron - water production has rebounded rapidly, and electric - furnace production has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly in the building materials category. Demand shows resilience, and steel has started to reduce inventories, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. Geopolitical risks increase energy valuation, and the cost end has strong support, but the high inventory and cautious peak - season expectations limit the upward drive of prices [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures are oscillating at a high level, with repeated geopolitical disturbances. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and arrivals have recovered. The US - Iran conflict affects the shipment and arrival rhythm, and high crude - oil prices increase shipping costs. The overall supply - demand is loose, but the pressure is difficult to be reflected in trading. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the new CEO of BHP, the US - Iran conflict, and the sensitivity of iron - ore prices [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals continue in a weak balance, and the spot price has a narrow - range correction. Scrap - steel arrivals are stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [10]. - **Coke**: Cost support is strong, and the bullish sentiment is strong. The futures follow coking coal and oscillate at a high level. After the lifting of restrictions, both supply and demand have recovered. The cost has been rising, and the expectation of a successful spot price increase is strong. The futures are expected to follow coking coal [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The auction prices continue to rise, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The energy substitution logic is the focus of trading. Domestic supply has room for a small increase, and imports remain high. After the lifting of restrictions, coke production has increased, and upstream coal - mine inventories have decreased. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but there is correction pressure if geopolitical conflicts ease [12]. - **Glass**: Real - world demand is weak, and production and sales have weakened month - on - month. Supply may be disturbed, and middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The supply - demand is in surplus, and high inventories suppress prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - demand is still in surplus, and macro factors dominate fluctuations. Supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - surplus pattern will intensify in the long run, with the price center declining [15]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: Affected by the expected production cuts, the futures rose and then fell. The actual production - control intensity remains to be seen. The cost is expected to rise, and demand may improve, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and there is a risk of correction in the medium - to - long term [16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The cost expectation is strong, but the valuation support is insufficient. The electricity - cost increase expectation is strong, and demand may improve. However, over - capacity is serious, and the supply - demand may turn loose. There is a risk of correction in the medium - to - long term [18].

风险提示: 宏观政策落地效果不及预期;纯苯进口偏离预期;装置预期外检修或恢复;油价波动。 苯乙烯国内开工 苯乙烯国内非一体化利润(元/吨) 2021 - 2022 - -2024 · 2026 2021 - 2025 - 2023 -- 2025 - 2022 -- 2023 -- -2024 - -2026 100% 3500 3000 90% 2500 2000 80% 1500 1000 70% 500 0 60% -500 50% -1000 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 苯乙烯全球开工 本乙烯海外开工 2022 2021 2023 - 2024 2025 -- 2026 2021 - 2022 - 2024 -- 2025 -- 2026 2023 -- 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2022, Australia, Qatar, and Russia have consistently been China's top three LNG suppliers, accounting for around 70% of total imports. Australia's import share declined from 38.96% in 2021 to 29.63% in 2025, while Qatar's and Russia's shares rose from 11.23% to 28.20% and from 5.65% to 14.27% respectively. The market shares of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea remained stable, and the share of imports from other countries dropped sharply [1][5][12]. - Adequate export capacity and relatively low prices have secured the dominant position of Australia, Qatar, and Russia among China's LNG import sources. In 2025, China's average LNG import cost decreased by about 9.7% from 2024. Russia implemented substantial price cuts in 2025, making its LNG the cheapest among major sources [15]. - Qatar's LNG trade is mainly under long - term contracts, with prices linked to oil prices and correlated with JKM. In 2025, imports rose year - on - year, and if new projects are on schedule in 2026, supply to China may increase by around 2.6 million tonnes [2][19]. - Australia's LNG imports in 2025 dropped 21.8% year - on - year. Its LNG price links to oil prices, with a higher spot share than Qatar. In 2026, imports may recover with lower costs but lack an advantage over Russian gas [3][44]. - Russia's LNG exports to China are 60% spot, with more diversified importers. In 2025, imports were up 18.7% year - on - year. Due to Europe's ban, much Russian LNG will divert to Asia, with China as the primary destination. If Russia continues price cuts, import growth is possible [4][31]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Qatar: Most trade volumes are under long - term contracts, with import prices linked to oil prices - In 2025, China imported 17.431 million tons of LNG from Qatar, up 7.65% year - on - year. The average import price of Qatari LNG is closely correlated with oil prices (correlation coefficient around 0.85) and JKM gas prices (correlation around 0.76). If the oil price center falls to $60/bbl or lower, the average import price may decline to $440/ton or below, stimulating import growth [19]. - Over 90% of Qatari LNG imports are under long - term contracts, dominated by China's three major oil and gas companies (combined share over 80%). After 2022, the importer structure became more diversified [20][21]. - Based on existing contracts, the total contracted volume with Qatar is approximately 20 million tons. The execution rate reached nearly 95% in 2025. If new projects start operation as scheduled in 2026, Qatar's LNG export supply to China may increase by around 2.6 million tons [24]. - Qatari LNG imports are relatively evenly distributed across East China, South China, and North China, with major receiving terminals including Rudong, Caofeidian, Shenzhen Dapeng, Ningbo Chuanshan, and Zhuhai ports [28]. 3.2 Russia: Exports to China are dominated by spot volumes, with further growth expected - In 2025, China imported 9.861 million tonnes of LNG from Russia, up 18.7% year - on - year. The average import price of Russian LNG is closely linked to JKM gas prices (correlation coefficient 0.936) and Brent oil prices (correlation around 0.75). Since July 2025, Russian exporters cut prices, and by December, the average import price dropped to 429.07 USD/ton, stimulating import growth [31]. - Russian LNG exports to China are dominated by spot volumes (59.34% in 2025). The three major oil and gas companies accounted for about 60% of total imports in 2025, and non - major oil and gas companies have increased their purchases of Russian spot LNG in recent years [34]. - Europe will phase out purchases of Russian LNG in 2026. Around 2.5 - 3 million tons of non - long - term contract volumes are expected to be diverted to Asia this year, and nearly 12 million tons next year. China is the primary destination for diverted Russian LNG, but geopolitics and sanctions need to be monitored [39][40]. 3.3 Australia: Imports may see a moderate recovery increment this year - In 2025, China imported 20.4714 million tonnes of LNG from Australia, down 21.8% year - on - year, with a partial recovery at the end of the year. The average import price of Australian LNG is closely linked to oil prices (correlation coefficient around 0.79), and international gas price surges have a more significant impact on it due to a higher spot share [44]. - Australian LNG import costs may fall below 450 USD/tonne in the first half of this year, but it still has no economic advantage over Russian gas [47]. - Long - term contract imports from Australia fell 30% to 10.32 million tonnes in 2025 but still accounted for more than 50% of total imports. The importer structure has become more diversified, with CNOOC and Sinopec as major buyers [48]. - Australia's LNG exports in 2025 reached 77.824 million tonnes, down 3.508 million tonnes year - on - year. The second 5 - million - tonne train at the Pluto project is expected to start operations in September 2026, which may lift exports, but it will face intense competition in the Chinese market [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term precious metals may have a corrective rebound after oversold, and it is necessary to closely monitor the geopolitical negotiation progress between the US and Iran and be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. The medium - and long - term upward logic for gold remains unchanged. For silver, in the short - term, it follows gold and may rebound after oversold, and the risk of repeated conflicts should be watched. In the medium - and long - term, if the economic cycle shifts to a stagflation scenario, gold will still benefit, and silver's elasticity may be limited, but there is support for silver prices, and its overall trend is expected to follow gold [1][2][5]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Gold - Logic: Gold experienced a sharp sell - off during the day, with the price dropping by more than 8% and the COMEX gold price falling below the $4,150 per ounce mark, then rebounding. The positive signal of US - Iran dialogue released by Trump and the suspension of military strikes on Iranian energy facilities eased geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, driving the sharp drop in oil prices [1]. - Outlook: Short - term gold may have a corrective rebound after oversold, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the geopolitical negotiation progress between the US and Iran and be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. The medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1][2]. Silver - Logic: Silver showed a "V - shaped" reversal during the day, with the COMEX silver price dropping by more than 10% and reaching $61 per ounce, then rebounding. Trump's statement eased geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, and the deeply oversold market triggered a technical correction. The US - Iran conflict remains highly uncertain, and the upward space may be limited. The decline in COMEX silver positions and global silver ETF positions has temporarily alleviated the tight spot market, and the spot - driven force of silver is weak, with price rebounds mainly relying on risk sentiment repair [2][5]. - Outlook: In the short - term, silver follows gold and may have a corrective rebound after oversold, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. In the medium - and long - term, if the economic cycle shifts to a stagflation scenario, gold will still benefit, and silver's elasticity may be limited, but there is support for silver prices, and its overall trend is expected to follow gold [2][5]. Commodity Indexes - Comprehensive Index: No specific data analysis provided. - Special Indexes: The commodity index was 2531.78, up 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2810.80, down 0.34%; the industrial products index was 2583.01, up 1.73% [45]. - Sector Indexes: The precious metals index on March 23, 2026, was 3675.04, with a daily decline of 4.31%, a 5 - day decline of 13.77%, a 1 - month decline of 11.89%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.90% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: The market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and liquidity may be the key factor. The TACO trading may drive a short - term market rebound, but the market may still face pressure later. The key lies in whether liquidity increases. If the two - market stabilizes without a liquidity recovery, it may be a bull trap [1][10]. - **Stock Index Options**: The risk - aversion sentiment has escalated, and volatility has risen rapidly. In the context of long - term risk pricing of external events, one should be wary of the risk of secondary amplification of volatility caused by liquidity transmission. It is recommended to continue holding call options for defense in the short term [2][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The geopolitical situation has escalated, and most of the bond market has declined. One needs to pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns. The short - end is relatively well - supported, while the long - end may be volatile [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the stock market adjusted again. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 4.31%, and the China Securities 1000 Index fell 4.81%. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and technology stocks were under pressure, and small - cap stocks led the decline [1][10]. - **Influencing Factors**: The Israel - Iran conflict heated up again over the weekend. The market is worried that the geopolitical risk may not end in the short term, and the impact of energy disturbances on inflation may be underestimated. Trump postponed the strike on Iran for 5 days after the market closed yesterday, leading to a rebound in crude oil and the US dollar index after a decline, and a weak stabilization of US and European stocks [1][10]. - **Outlook**: TACO trading may drive a short - term market rebound, but the market may still face pressure later. The key lies in whether liquidity increases. Reasons include: multi - asset resonance due to geopolitical conflicts, low trading volume in the past three days, and possible liquidity踩踏 caused by retail investors and hot money stopping losses [1][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [10]. 3.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the underlying market declined throughout the day, and the total single - day trading volume of financial options soared to 21.83 billion yuan. The IV of each variety rose rapidly, reaching a relatively high level in the past quarter, and the position PCR declined rapidly, indicating that the implied risk is still being released [2][10]. - **Structural Features**: The upward volatility intensity of the call side of the 50 and 300 options is greater than that of the small - and medium - cap options, indicating that the market expects the former to be relatively more resistant to decline [2][10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of long - term risk pricing of external events, be wary of the risk of secondary amplification of volatility caused by liquidity transmission. It is recommended to continue holding call options for defense in the short term [2][10]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were divided. The price of the TL contract rose, while the prices of other varieties of contracts fell. The T main contract fluctuated downward after opening [3][11]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US - Iran situation escalated over the weekend, increasing the market's expectation of rising oil prices. At the same time, due to the decline in the stock market, some funds may have redemption on the liability side, leading to the net selling of spot bonds by some funds and a weakening of the treasury bond futures market [3][11]. - **Outlook**: One needs to pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns. The short - end is relatively well - supported under the relatively loose capital situation, while the long - end may be volatile [3][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: volatile. Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - side hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: appropriately pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage at the ultra - long end. Curve strategy: the short - term curve may be steeper [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unclear, and the energy and chemical sectors continue to fluctuate. Crude oil prices fluctuated significantly on Monday. The attitude of the United States is crucial to the price trend of oil and gas, and the key issue is when the Strait can be navigated smoothly. The chemical sector may enter a volatile pattern [2]. - Crude oil leads the chemical sector to continue the volatile pattern, waiting for the geopolitical situation to become clear [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and oil price volatility has intensified. The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices. The geopolitical outlook remains highly uncertain, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances are still strong, and asphalt futures prices are rising. The geopolitical situation is the core factor affecting oil prices. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly, and the supply of asphalt is expected to further decline. The asphalt futures price is currently undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supported by geopolitical factors, high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong. The geopolitical situation is still tense, and the high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil are still driving up the futures price. However, the cracking spread of Singapore fuel oil has fallen from a record high, indicating that the refinery feed demand and power generation demand may be suppressed by high prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. It follows the high - level fluctuation of crude oil, and the market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment is greatly affected by news, and it fluctuates widely. The US - Iran conflict has not been effectively alleviated, and international oil prices are strong during the Asian session but fluctuate at night. The supply of PX is expected to be affected by the reduction of domestic and foreign PX device loads [12]. - **PTA**: The cost fluctuates widely, and the short - term volatility of PTA has increased. International oil prices fluctuate around the US - Iran peace talks. The cost and market sentiment dominate the price trend in the short term. High inventory is still a real problem [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: It fluctuates strongly. The current price of pure benzene is mainly dominated by the geopolitical situation. The supply of Asian naphtha is tightening, and some refineries have reduced their loads. The downstream profit is acceptable, and the value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil has increased [17]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to the supply and demand of styrene, and it fluctuates strongly. The price of styrene is still dominated by the geopolitical situation. There are changes in the supply side, and the downstream profit has declined. There is an expected increase in exports [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation continues to disturb market sentiment, and ethylene glycol maintains a high - level consolidation. International oil prices fluctuate around the US - Iran peace talks, and the arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port will decrease in early April. The market will continue to fluctuate widely [21]. - **Short - Fiber**: There is intense game between upstream and downstream, and the transaction shows high - low differentiation. International oil prices fluctuate widely, and the supply of short - fiber continues to increase, but the downstream transaction is average, and the short - fiber factory has a slight inventory build - up [22]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost volatility increases, and bottle chips passively follow. The upstream cost remains at a high level, and the price of bottle chips follows the upstream raw materials. The supply and demand of bottle chips are relatively tight [26]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and methanol fluctuates within a range. The methanol futures price has risen significantly. The inland market is strong, and the coastal market is affected by the geopolitical situation. The authenticity of the US - Iran peace talk news is uncertain [29]. - **Urea**: There is a game between long and short positions, and urea fluctuates and consolidates. The supply of urea is sufficient, and the demand is cautious. The spot price is restricted by policy guidance and commercial storage [31]. - **PE**: The market game is intense, and PE should be viewed with caution. The global crude oil market still faces a large gap, and PE imports may decrease. The spot price fluctuates widely, and the downstream transaction is average [33]. - **PP**: Geopolitical news disturbs the market, and PP fluctuates widely. The global crude oil market has a large gap, and the direct impact on PP imports is limited. The refinery profit is under pressure, and the spot price fluctuates widely [34]. - **PL**: Geopolitical news disturbs strongly, and PL fluctuates widely. The supply reduction has a significant boost, but the downstream factory's acceptance is limited [35]. - **PVC**: It is mainly affected by sentiment, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. The market game on the US - Iran peace talks has enlarged commodity fluctuations. The supply is decreasing, the downstream start - up has improved, and the export order is average [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market fluctuates strongly, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. The market game on the US - Iran peace talks has enlarged commodity fluctuations. The supply is decreasing, the export has improved, and it is expected to reduce inventory [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is provided in the report for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on March 23, 2026, shows that the commodity index is 2531.78 (+0.33%), the commodity 20 index is 2810.80 (-0.34%), and the industrial product index is 2583.01 (+1.73%) [280]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on March 23, 2026, shows a daily increase of 4.03%, a 5 - day increase of 9.93%, a 1 - month increase of 68.73%, and a year - to - date increase of 78.69% [282].