投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-01-06 供应担忧继续，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：供应担忧继续，碳酸锂领涨新能源⾦属 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西某云母矿复产预期延 后且尼日利亚锂矿政策有望调整，委内瑞拉局势动荡，供应扰动担忧 持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，但多晶硅收储平台成立，供应端收 缩预期仍在。中短期来看，供应扰动担忧持续，新能源金属或维持震 荡偏强走势。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格 重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔 高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长期供需走向需要重新审视，年 度供需拐点可能提前出现。 ⼯业硅观点：供需驱动弱，硅价随情绪波动。 多晶硅观点：强预期VS弱现实，多晶硅价格延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点：市场情绪偏强叠加供应担忧，锂价开年⼤涨。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-06 地缘局势仍有不确定性，供应减量担忧 提振沥⻘和甲醇 1月4日，OPEC+的8个主要产油国召开会议，决定维持2025年11月初制 定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产，产量与2025年12月及 2026年1月保持相同。与此同时，市场也在逐步消化委内瑞拉局势对油市 的影响，WCS相较于WTI的价差扩大，美国石油股因为可能参与委内油田开 采的可能也出现反弹，欧洲军工股则因担心地缘也出现上涨。因库存高 企，供应宽裕，我们看到即使委内瑞拉局势动荡也并未对原油绝对价格带 来较大提振，同时其他地区地缘的可能性也需要保持警惕。 板块逻辑： 化工周一日盘整体高开低走，周一夜盘则略有反弹。1月5日当周苯乙 烯和乙二醇华东港口库存周度环比略降，苯乙烯库存仍是五年最高；压力 较大的仍是纯苯，周度库存环比增加6%。周一夜盘反弹力度较大的PVC和M A，PVC的反弹与陕西可能针对高耗能企业收取加价电费的文件有关，陕西 的电石产量占全国总产量的7.2%左右（卓创数据）；假设加价收取0.1元/ 度，电石成本将增加320元/吨。甲 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/01/06 China Futures Daily Note CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: South Korean President Lee Jae-myung embarks on his first state visit to China since taking office. Futures Prices: On Jan 5, equity index futures rose while CG ...

固定收益组 甘青 从业资格号 F03124127 投资咨询号 Z0023461 固定收益组 程小庆 2026-01-05 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0018635 政府债发行追踪 -- 2025年第53周 截至12/31,新增一般债发行进度为96.3% 2019年 -2022年 2020年 2021年 2023年 2024年 ·2025年 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 | 本周地方债净融资规模为174亿，环比增加206亿，下周计划净融资1177亿 | | | --- | --- | | 亿元 | ■2025年 ■过去2年平均 | | 5000 г | | 截至12/31,新增地方债发行进度为103.1% 2019年 2022年 2020年 2021年 2023年 2024年 ·2025年 120% г 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 15 ...

12月新增一般债累计发行384亿元 -2021年 -- 2022年 -- 2023年 -- 2024 -- 2025年 2020年 亿元 政府债发行追踪 -- 2025年第53周 固定收益组 程小庆 2026-01-05 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0018635 固定收益组 甘青 从业资格号 F03124127 投资咨询号 Z0023461 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息 仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收 到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 截至12/31,新增专项债发行进度为104.4% 本周新增专项债发行145亿,环比增加125亿,下周计划发行874亿 亿元 2022年 2021年 2019年 2020年 ■2025年 ■过去2年平均 ·2024年 ·2025年 2023年 4000 120% 3500 100% 3000 80% 2500 2000 60% 1500 40% 1000 20% 500 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in policy will continue to boost the terminal demand for chemicals. The prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The OPEC+ will hold a monthly video conference on January 4th to plan the organization's future production, and the market generally expects it to maintain the decision of "suspending the production increase in the first quarter". Geopolitical situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine are short - term supports for oil prices. The Chinese government has advanced the issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade - in, which will significantly boost styrene [2]. - The supply and demand of the chemical industry have been flat recently, with no major contradictions, and the overall trend will be volatile. The PTA spot processing fee has increased, and the operating enthusiasm of PTA enterprises will rise. The processing fee of downstream polyester filament has dropped to a three - year low, and the industrial chain profit has shifted. The spot liquidity of polyolefin has tightened, and the futures price will move sideways. The rebound of styrene is not optimistic due to the drag of raw material pure benzene and high inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. API data shows that US crude oil and refined product inventories continued to accumulate in the week of December 26th, and the total inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products is rising against the seasonal trend. The geopolitical prospects in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations. The decline in Venezuela's shipments is not obvious for now, but its crude oil exports are expected to decline later. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rises following the increase in crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the asphalt futures price. If there is a substantial supply disruption in the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory is starting to accumulate [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Be vigilant about the positive support for fuel oil from Iran's suspension of natural gas supply to Iraq. Although there are factors that support the high - sulfur fuel oil price, such as the potential resumption of fuel oil power generation in Iran and Iraq, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and there are medium - and long - term double negatives [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates [4]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions have emerged again, and combined with capital rotation, the upward trend in the pre - holiday market may continue [4]. - **Urea**: There is concentrated pre - holiday procurement, and urea is expected to be in a consolidation state [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average [4]. - **PX**: The expected supply - demand pattern of PX has weakened, and the price has回调 after rising. International oil prices are strong, providing cost support. However, due to the market's focus on supply increase expectations, the price has回调 after rising, and the terminal has slowed down its procurement rhythm [12]. - **PTA**: The maintenance of polyester plants is gradually being implemented. The supply - demand of PTA has weakened marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost in the short term [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The callback is limited, the processing fee is under pressure, and the willingness to reduce production is increasing. The cost support is strong, but the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the processing fee is under pressure [24]. - **Bottle Chip**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. The price of polyester bottle chips fluctuates following the raw materials, and the short - term driving force is limited [26]. - **Propylene**: The CP price in January has been raised, and the PDH is expected to reduce its operating rate, so the PL has strengthened slightly [4]. - **PP**: The CP price has been raised, and PP has strengthened slightly [4]. - **Plastic**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the holiday, and plastic is expected to fluctuate. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the fundamental support for plastic has increased slightly, but the driving force for both long and short positions is relatively weak [31]. - **Styrene**: The short - term market is dominated by sentiment, and the sustainability of export transactions should be monitored. The cost support from pure benzene is weak, but there are positive factors such as export orders and market sentiment stimulation. However, the supply and demand situation is not optimistic, and the upside is restricted [18]. - **PVC**: Short - sellers take profits before the holiday, and PVC is mainly in a fluctuating state. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand expectation has improved, but the high - inventory pressure still exists [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply in the short term [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given, along with their latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists different varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [284]. - **Energy Index**: On December 30, 2025, the energy index was 1093.97, with a daily increase of 0.49%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.18%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.91% [286].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-31 节前资金流出，铂钯继续大幅回调 12⽉31⽇，铂钯继续⼤幅回调，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为589.85元/克 ，跌幅13%；钯主⼒合约收盘价为447.45元/克，跌幅13%。临近元旦假 期，市场情绪⾛弱资⾦流出，带动铂钯⼤幅回调，需继续警惕价格⼤幅波 动⻛险。 铂观点：节前资金流出，铂金大幅回调 主要逻辑：铂金经历回调后内外价差有所收窄，至12月31日收盘，广期所 铂金主力合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含税）溢价35.16元/克，但仍 高于进口成本，存在无风险套利机会，因此未来价差存在收敛倾向。不过 由于套保额度限制等方面的问题，短期价差或仍然偏高。当前波动加剧需 高度警惕风险。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂族金属的主要供应 国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方面，铂金市场整体处 于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来 重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步 放大远期价格弹性。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强。短期价 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-31 震荡运⾏为主，关注钢⼚复产与下游补 库节奏 国家发展改⾰委、财政部发布关于2026年实施⼤规模设备更新和消 费品以旧换新政策的通知，政策基调仍显积极。钢材淡季延续去库， 基本⾯⽭盾有限，盘⾯震荡运⾏。铁矿⾼库存或将⾯临堆存费征收的 压⼒，盘⾯上涨乏⼒。焦煤交割博弈加剧，盘⾯波动剧烈。玻璃供给 扰动带动玻纯盘⾯价格反弹，但供需过剩压制上⽅空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水基本持稳，港口库存持续累积，钢厂少量补 库，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供需双弱，钢厂 库存偏高，补库放缓，废钢现货上涨乏力，华东主导钢企上周末提降 30元/吨，预计现货市场跟跌为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，四轮提降落地后现货有望企稳，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随 着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，且进入一月后蒙煤进口冲量行为将 有所改善，总体供应压力将得到缓解，焦煤基本面将延续边际改善， 期现价格仍有上涨动力。 3. 合金方面：内蒙 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For different financial derivatives, the outlooks are as follows: - **Stock Index Futures**: The outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The outlook is "oscillation" [8]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures on December 31, 2025, and believes that better investment opportunities may come after the holiday. It also provides corresponding operation suggestions for different derivatives based on market trends and signals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Suggestions for Different Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and recovered, closing flat at the end of the session with basically the same trading volume and continued cooling market sentiment. There are three signals: the daily high has decreased; only one hot - spot sector can be supported; new hot - spots are emerging. Incremental funds have returned to rationality, and it is expected that there will be no systematic opportunities at the end of the year [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Retain long positions, wait for the opportunity to increase positions after New Year's Day, and temporarily use high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main allocation lines, with large - cap stocks preferred over small - cap stocks. The recommended operation is "Dividend ETF + IC long positions" [7]. Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: The equity market opened lower and fluctuated higher. The trading volume of each option variety increased slightly, but the increase was limited, and the trading volume remained at a relatively low level. The intraday implied volatility of options fluctuated sharply and showed a strong overall trend. It is speculated that the proportion of investors in directional trend trading has decreased, and the demand for option hedging and risk management may be more stable [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Continue to hold sold options to increase returns, and can also supplement with a small amount of bought put options for protection and defense. The recommended operation is "covered call" [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.17%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.02%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly increased, and the yields of spot bonds showed differentiated trends. The central bank's net injection of funds was 25.32 billion yuan, but the year - end capital market tightened, which affected the bond market. However, considering the central bank's care for the capital market, the probability of continued tight capital after the New Year is low [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For trend strategies, expect oscillation. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, pay attention to the widening of the basis. For curve strategies, expect the curve to remain steep [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar The economic calendar shows the time, region, indicators, previous values, forecast values, and unpublished release values of economic data from December 30, 2025, to January 1, 2026, including data from the United States, China, and Europe [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Regulatory Policy**: The "Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" will be implemented on January 1, 2026, aiming to implement the "Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" [11]. - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: The Central Rural Work Conference from December 29th to 30th analyzed the situation and challenges of "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" and deployed work for 2026 [12]. - **TMT**: The Ministry of Education plans to issue relevant policy documents next year to promote the application of artificial intelligence in education and build an education system for the future [12]. - **Real Estate**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling housing will have different value - added tax policies depending on the length of housing ownership [13]. - **Consumption**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance will implement a large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy in 2026, with clear funding channels and cost - sharing ratios [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but does not provide specific data content [15][19][31].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘涨跌互现，贵金属跌幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20251231 中信期货研究所 王含章 从业资格号F03121254 投资咨询号Z0022985 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | 热门行业涨跌幅 | | | | | | 硅铁 | 5750 | 1.30% | 1.38% | 6.68% -8.09% | 2.42% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 行业 | 现价 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | 锰硅 | 5942 | 1.36% | 1.75% | 5.80% -2.43% | 2.84% | | | 石油石化 | 3429 2.67% | 4.0 ...