1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector continues to oscillate due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affecting oil supply and causing price fluctuations. The market is waiting for the geopolitical situation to become clear [2]. - Different energy and chemical products show various trends. Some products, such as crude oil, are expected to be volatile and bullish, while others, like urea, are expected to be in a state of shock consolidation [5][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and the supply gap persists. The Strait of Hormuz has a low traffic volume, and the supply shortage is expected to drive oil prices to oscillate strongly. The outlook is bullish [5]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the asphalt futures price oscillates at a high level. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated, and production cuts are expected to increase. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [6]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil oscillates at a high level. Geopolitical factors are the core drivers. In the long term, the substitution of fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East may increase fuel oil exports, which is a long - term negative factor [6]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the high - level oscillation of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, its current valuation is relatively low, and it follows the trend of crude oil [8]. - **PX**: The cost remains strongly supported. Due to the tense situation between the US and Iran and the upcoming maintenance season in April, the supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to remain high [10]. - **PTA**: The oil price remains strong, supporting the center of PTA. Although the downstream situation is not clear, the supply is expected to shrink, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to strengthen [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is mainly affected by the geopolitical situation. The supply at home and abroad is expected to decline, and the downstream negative feedback is not obvious. It is expected to oscillate strongly [16]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to the supply and demand of styrene. The supply may decrease at home and abroad, and the export demand is expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The export demand continues, and the de - stocking pattern is expected to expand further. The supply in the Middle East is tight, and the export demand will continue if the strait remains blocked [20]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream's willingness to chase high prices is insufficient. The supply of polyester staple fiber continues to increase, but the downstream trading is average, and the price is expected to oscillate [21]. - **Bottle Chips**: It is passively following the cost. The upstream polyester raw materials are supported by the strong international oil price, and the price is expected to follow the cost fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and it oscillates within a range. The domestic and overseas situations are uncertain, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium [25]. - **Urea**: It is mainly guided by policies and oscillates and consolidates. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand is in a transition period. The price is restricted by policies [27]. - **PE**: Due to the uncertainty of geopolitics, it should be treated with caution. The supply of crude oil is tight, and the import of PE may decrease [30]. - **PP**: Affected by geopolitical news, it oscillates. The direct impact on imports is limited, and the refinery profit is under pressure [31]. - **PL**: Affected by geopolitical expectations, it oscillates. The cost support is obvious, but the downstream powder profit is under pressure [32]. - **PVC**: The production cut is not as expected, and it should be treated with caution. The geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, and the supply and demand situation is complex [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is adjusted, and it should be treated with caution. The geopolitical situation affects the supply and demand, and the inventory removal is not smooth [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread data, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 7.41, change: 0.16), Dubai (M1 - M2: 12.15, change: 2.75), etc. [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, asphalt (basis: - 93, change: 109, warehouse receipt: 85620 tons) [39]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread data, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 391, change: - 260), 1 - month TA - EG (1399, change: - 81) [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists different varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis is provided in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The real - world and expected scenarios are in a state of game, leading to a differentiated performance in the sector. The cost side disturbances may be repeated, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply - side disturbances. The bullish expectations for the peak season are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world side remains to be verified. If the geopolitical conflict persists, price support will be strong; if it eases, prices may face a correction [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall de - stocking is difficult to achieve due to the loose supply - demand situation, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, and recent fluctuations may increase [2][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, and the demand from long - process steelmaking is slowly recovering. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak equilibrium, and it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke are increasing, and the resumption of iron - making production may be faster. There is still support from the spot cost side. After the first round of spot price increase is implemented, it is expected to remain stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the cost side of coking coal [3][11] - **Coking Coal**: The trading logic of coking coal futures is shifting from energy substitution to warehouse - receipt delivery. With the decline in restocking demand, continuous import pressure, and the approaching delivery of the main contract, the futures price may be under pressure. However, geopolitical disturbances will still support the futures price, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectations of rising manganese ore import costs and electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, considering the loose supply - demand situation, high inventory, and difficult cost transfer in the manganese - silicon market, there is still a risk of correction in the medium - to - long - term valuation above the cost level [3][14][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectation of increasing electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in the silicon - iron industry is serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the comprehensive cost of manufacturers [6][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand situation is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][14] 3.5 Steel - The cost performance is differentiated, and the futures price operates in an oscillatory manner. The spot transaction has improved, the steel mill profitability has increased, and the production is gradually returning to normal. The downstream demand is slowly releasing, and the inventory is decreasing, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The impact of the decline in Iranian steel supply is limited in the short term. The futures price still has downward pressure, but cost - side disturbances may be repeated [8] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 30, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index increased by 0.96%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.33% on that day, decreased by 1.20% in the past 5 days, increased by 6.47% in the past month, and increased by 2.87% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint - Due to the intensifying supply disturbances in the Middle East, aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong in an oscillating manner. The main contract in the second quarter is expected to be between 22,000 - 28,000 yuan per ton [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On March 28, UAE's ATaweelah was attacked by drones, and its facilities were severely damaged. On March 29, Bahrain Aluminium confirmed that its facilities were also attacked and damaged, intensifying the marginal supply disturbances in the Middle - East aluminum market. On March 30, SHFE aluminum opened strongly, with an intraday increase of nearly 4% and LME aluminum rising more than 5.5% [3]. Fundamental Situation - **Macro - aspect**: Geopolitical situation remains under observation, and risk appetite has temporarily stabilized [4]. - **Supply - side**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased overseas supply disruptions. Some local plants have already cut production, and there is a risk of an expanded production - cut area. Mozal is under maintenance, and new projects in Indonesia are restricted by factors such as power. Overall, the supply - side constraints are strong [4]. - **Demand - side**: The weekly terminal operating rate in China has rebounded, and the spot remains at a discount. In the medium - term, there are still structural highlights, with high - growth in energy storage and power grid sectors. It is expected that the global supply - demand will remain tight in 2026 [4]. Summary and Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips. For spreads, continue to focus on the SHFE - LME aluminum spread arbitrage and the LME aluminum borrow strategy [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, the polysilicon price rebounded due to repeated policy expectations and low valuations. The price of the main contract rose 3.45% to 8,550 yuan/ton, driven by policy - end guidance. The "anti - involution" policy expectations are still there [2][3]. - In the short term, the polysilicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the cost range under the pattern of repeated policy expectations and weak demand. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy orientation and the progress of supply going overseas. If production cuts continue, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve marginally. In the long - term, the price of polysilicon will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The price of the main contract of polysilicon rose 3.45% to 8,550 yuan/ton today, mainly driven by policy - end. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation's statements on preventing disorderly and "involution - type" competition in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields formed an echo, promoting the price rebound [3]. Fundamental Situation - Supply side: Under the pressure of high inventory, most silicon - material enterprises are still in a state of production reduction. Although some enterprises have the willingness to resume production, the overall output of polysilicon in April is expected to remain at a low level [4]. - Demand side: Affected by weak terminal demand and the off - season at the beginning of the year, the production and operating rates of silicon wafers declined from January to February. In March, silicon - wafer production was boosted by the "export rush" window, but it is difficult to significantly increase in April. The overall production of battery cells and components is low, and downstream demand is still weak [4]. - Inventory: The inventory pressure of polysilicon is still large. Although the upstream has alleviated the supply through production reduction and control, the inventory accumulated over the years has not been significantly reduced, and it still takes time to consume inventory and ship the supply [4]. Summary and Strategy - Summary: The polysilicon price has fallen significantly in the early stage and is currently in a low - valuation range. In the short term, it will fluctuate within the cost range; in the medium and long - term, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [5]. - Strategy: For downstream industrial enterprises, they can make appropriate low - price purchases. For unilateral operations, it is recommended to wait and see for now [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption of lithium carbonate continues to ferment, and its price has rebounded significantly. The 3 - 4 month supply - demand of lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance, which may be further extended under the support of supply disruption expectations. Short - term price fluctuations are large, while the medium - to - long - term price center still has certain support [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 6.1% to 108,440 yuan per ton today. The price rebounded again. On one hand, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still in a tight balance. This week, the macro - sentiment improved and risk appetite rebounded, driving the linkage of lithium - related stocks. On the other hand, the expectation of supply - side disruptions has increased. There is an expectation that the export ban in Zimbabwe may be extended, and the diesel shortage in Australia due to geopolitical factors may constrain lithium mining and shipping [2] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: After the Spring Festival, the production line operation of domestic lithium carbonate quickly recovered, and the output continued to rise. The import of lithium carbonate in the first quarter also maintained good growth. However, there are frequent factors disturbing the supply, increasing market concerns. The ore export ban in Zimbabwe has lasted for nearly a month, and the recovery time is unclear. The diesel supply shortage in Australia has affected mining operations. The supply uncertainty has increased [3] - **Demand**: In March, the consumption in the battery sector reached a relatively high level, supporting the lithium price. However, the performance of the new - energy vehicle market still needs to be observed. The production and sales of domestic new - energy vehicles were at a low stage from January to February, and the retail sales in early March were still under pressure. With the arrival of the peak season, there is an expectation of improvement in production and sales, and the demand for electric vehicles and energy storage may be boosted [3] - **Inventory**: The previous inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline and has now slightly increased, but the fundamentals are still relatively tight [3] Summary and Strategy - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate will maintain a tight - balance pattern from March to April, and this state may be further extended. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and the sustainability of the driving force needs verification; the medium - to - long - term price center still has certain support. Downstream enterprises can buy on dips or moderately carry out hedging, and institutional investors can pay attention to the callback - buying opportunities under macro - fluctuations and large - scale price fluctuations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - COMEX silver is a crucial pricing benchmark in the global precious and industrial metal markets, reflecting the supply - demand relationship of silver's dual attributes of "monetary hedging" and "strategic industry". It provides price discovery and hedging mechanisms for industries and is a key tool for investors to hedge risks [7]. - The CME Group is a leading global financial derivatives trading and clearing group. Its COMEX platform is the most liquid and largest - scale precious metal trading platform, and its silver futures contract is an important pricing reference for the global silver market [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Contracts - **Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group)**: It is a leading global financial derivatives trading and clearing group based in Chicago, USA. It consists of multiple exchanges, including CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX, providing trading and risk - management services for various asset classes [7][12]. - **COMEX Silver Futures Contracts**: - Contract unit: 5,000 ounces; quotation unit: dollars per ounce; settlement method: deliverable [14]. - Trading time varies in different trading systems (CME Globex, TAS, TAM, CME ClearPort) with specific time ranges and rules [14]. - Minimum price change: Outright is 0.005 dollars per ounce; calendar spread is 0.001 dollars per ounce [14]. - Other details include product codes, trading cutoff, settlement procedures, etc. [14]. - **Contract Margin Reference**: The maintenance margin and risk scan rate vary for different contract start and end months from February 2026 to January 2027 [20]. - **Contract Lifecycle Reference**: For different months from March 2026 to March 2027, details such as the first trading day, last trading day, settlement day, etc., are provided [22]. - **Contract Code Reference**: Codes for 12 - month continuous contracts and specific - month contracts are provided for different data platforms [24]. - **Historical Volume - Price Performance**: Volume and price data from 1983 - 2025 are presented in graphs, showing the market volume and open interest changes over time [27]. 3.2 Delivery Process - **Delivery Process Overview**: The CME precious metal contract delivery is a three - working - day standardized process, including the delivery intention day, notice day/invoice day, and delivery day [6][30][31]. - **Delivery Intention Day**: Sellers must submit a delivery intention notice through the Deliveries Plus application, match positions with warrants, and the system will issue an allocation notice. The first and last intention/holding days are specified [36]. - **Notice Day/Invoice Day**: The clearinghouse issues invoices to both parties, usually on the first working - day morning after the intention day. Invoice details include brand, warrant number, weight, etc. [37][38]. - **Delivery Day**: Sellers receive electronic funds transfer, and buyers receive electronic warrants in their Deliveries Plus inventory. A delivery case is provided to illustrate the process [40][41][42]. - **Delivery Quality Requirements**: The standard delivery unit is 5,000 troy ounces of silver with a minimum purity of 99.9%. Other requirements include allowable weight, weight calculation accuracy, approved refineries, and storage and transportation requirements [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy shortage continues to impact the market, and the chemical industry remains in a volatile state. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has created an energy gap, and Asian countries are preparing for the worst - case energy scenario. The chemical industry has mostly entered a state of weak supply and demand, and investors should approach it with a volatile mindset [1]. - Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels due to the uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Other chemical products, including asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc., are also expected to show a volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and oil prices are volatile at high levels. - **Main Logic**: The US has postponed its attack on Iranian energy facilities, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still highly uncertain. There is a large supply gap in the crude oil market, and the potential release of floating storage in Iran and Russia is limited. The inventory in China and the US is mainly driven by seasonal patterns, and de - stocking in consuming countries is expected to occur after April. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Supply shortages persist, and fluctuating geopolitical expectations are likely to keep oil prices volatile [4]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt - fuel oil price spread continues to recover upward. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core influence on oil prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is still at a low level, and the profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated and is expected to recover. Refinery production cuts may drive the spread to rise. The supply of asphalt is expected to further decline, but there is still a large inventory build - up pressure on the demand side. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The absolute price of asphalt is in an over - valued range, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [6]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The discount of high - sulfur fuel oil has dropped significantly but remains at a high level. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core driver of oil prices. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil have led to a significant increase in its price. The Singapore fuel oil cracking spread has turned negative, indicating that high prices may suppress refinery feedstock and power generation demand. In the long term, the replacement of fuel oil power generation demand in the Middle East is a long - term negative factor. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen from its high level following crude oil. It has strong product attributes, and its valuation has been significantly repaired during the oil price increase. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The high export tax - rebate rate and high profit are expected to drive an increase in production. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current valuation is relatively low and it will follow crude oil fluctuations [8]. PX - **Viewpoint**: It rebounds after a decline following raw materials. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran situation shows no signs of improvement, and international oil prices have rebounded after a decline. Domestically, PX device changes are mainly within the planned scope, while overseas PX device loads have continued to weaken. Under the negative feedback of lower - than - expected polyester load and increased production cuts, PX is under pressure, and the market trading atmosphere is light. - **Outlook**: Volatile. In the short term, PX prices may be adjusted according to cost guidance, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips remains. The PX05 - 09 spread positive arbitrage should be reduced when it is high, and the PXN is expected to remain volatile [9][10]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Filament production cuts are implemented and the scale is expanded, weakening the demand support for upstream products. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have rebounded after a decline. Although the previous cost decline drove the sales volume of downstream polyester, the current high cost still puts pressure on polyester factories. The spot inventory is relatively loose, and the basis has not strengthened significantly. The large - scale production cuts of polyester filament have further weakened the demand and increased the difficulty of inventory reduction. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend in the short term. The TA05 - 09 spread positive arbitrage should be reduced when it is high, and the short - term volatility has increased [10][11]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates strongly, mainly driven by geopolitical factors. - **Main Logic**: The price of pure benzene is mainly dominated by the geopolitical situation. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has tightened the supply of crude oil and Asian naphtha. On the supply side, some refineries are under maintenance, and the supply may decline. On the demand side, the profits of downstream products, except for styrene, have increased, and there is no negative feedback pressure. The value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for gasoline has increased. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the production of refineries at home and abroad may be reduced, and the de - stocking of pure benzene will be advanced [12][13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors bring positive supply - demand factors, and styrene fluctuates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The price of styrene is still dominated by the geopolitical situation. On the supply side, some overseas devices are operating at the lowest load, and some domestic devices are restarting or under maintenance. On the demand side, the overall profit of downstream products has declined, and the comprehensive operating rate has decreased. The non - integrated profit is neutral to low, and some factories may reduce production or conduct maintenance. There is an expected increase in exports. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong. Affected by the geopolitical situation, production at home and abroad may be reduced, and export demand may increase [14]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation continues to disturb market sentiment, and ethylene glycol remains at a high level. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have rebounded after a decline, driving up the cost of downstream chemical products. The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main ports will decrease to a low level in early April, and the port inventory will be accelerated for de - stocking. The inability to effectively realize imported ethylene glycol will keep the market in a wide - range volatile pattern. The production cuts of polyester factories have weakened the demand support for upstream products. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term, and maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude in the short term [15][17]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Downstream enthusiasm for chasing high prices is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have rebounded after a decline, and the market sentiment is strongly influenced by the geopolitical situation. The price of polyester raw materials fluctuates in line with the cost. The supply of short - fiber continues to increase, but the downstream trading volume is average, and most buyers are in a wait - and - see state. The short - fiber market is polarized, with factories raising prices and downstream customers waiting at high prices. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The short - fiber price follows the upstream products, and the processing fee has certain support at the bottom. The short - term price volatility is large, and cautious operation is recommended [17][18]. Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: The cost volatility intensifies, and bottle chips passively follow. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has rebounded after a decline, and bottle chips follow the upstream cost. The absolute price change is limited, and the short - term price trend is expected to continue to follow the upstream cost. The supply and demand of bottle chips are relatively tight, and the overall fundamentals are relatively good. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee at the bottom is strengthened. Attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on PR and short on PF to isolate the wide - range cost fluctuations [19]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and methanol fluctuates within a range. - **Main Logic**: On March 26, 2026, the methanol futures price fluctuated strongly. The inland market is supported by factors such as the rigid demand inquiry and procurement of olefin devices and the positive restart expectation of MTO devices in East China. The coastal market has support from import reduction and inventory de - stocking, but the actual pick - up is not good. The situation in Iran is full of uncertainties, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The geopolitical premium is difficult to disappear in the short term. Although the price is restricted by the downstream's resistance to high prices and weak demand, there is still room for an upward movement [22][24]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Driven by demand and policy guidance, urea fluctuates and consolidates under the game between long and short positions. - **Main Logic**: On March 26, 2026, urea fluctuated strongly. On the supply side, although there are routine maintenance of gas - based devices, the daily production of the industry remains at a high level of 21 - 220,000 tons, and the market supply is sufficient. On the demand side, although the agricultural demand for green - turning fertilizer is coming to an end, the industrial demand from compound fertilizers, boards, and melamine is increasing. The enterprise inventory continues to decline. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The current fundamentals of urea are relatively stable. The supply remains at a high level, and the agricultural demand support is slightly weakened while the industrial demand is moderately recovering. The spot price is restricted by policy price limits and commercial storage release, and the sustainability of the futures price increase driven by market sentiment needs to be considered [25]. PE - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance is increasing, and PE should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still highly uncertain, and oil prices are expected to be volatile at high levels. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The energy - chemical sentiment is still volatile in the short term, and the refinery operating rate has declined, which still supports the near - month contracts. The spot price fluctuates, and the downstream trading volume is average. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The market game is intense under geopolitical disturbances, and the downstream trading volume is average [28]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances and increasing maintenance lead to PP fluctuations. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and oil prices are volatile at high levels. The direct impact of imports on PP is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH PP refineries are still under pressure, which supports the price, while the coal - based profit has been significantly repaired, and the overall operating rate is at a low level. The PP spot trading volume is average, and exports have increased. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Maintenance is still increasing, and the market game between long and short positions is intense under geopolitical news disturbances [29]. PL - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations disturb the market, and PL fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On March 26, PL fluctuated. Some enterprises released propylene, which intensified the wait - and - see sentiment of industry players. The enterprise quotations were mainly stable, and some prices continued to decline, dragging down the actual transaction price. The short - term powder profit was compressed, and the downstream factory acceptance was limited. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The operating rate has declined, and the downstream powder profit is still under pressure [30]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Supply has increased slightly, and PVC should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market is speculating on the US - Iran peace talks, and the commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. At the micro level, although the domestic supply has increased, exports are maintained, and the PVC inventory is being de - stocked. The profit repair has boosted the production willingness of calcium carbide - based PVC enterprises, and the maintenance of ethylene - based PVC has ended. However, raw material shortages may lead to an expansion of ethylene - based PVC production cuts in April. The downstream operating rate has improved, but the enthusiasm for chasing high prices is not high. - **Outlook**: Volatile. In the short term, the production cuts of ethylene - based PVC are less than expected, and the market is slightly under pressure. If the geopolitical situation does not improve substantially, there is still a risk of chlor - alkali production cuts, and the market should be treated with cautious optimism [31]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The upstream inventory has increased, and caustic soda should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market is speculating on the US - Iran peace talks, and the commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. At the micro level, the domestic production has increased slightly, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the upstream inventory has increased. The marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, and production cuts have been implemented. The demand for caustic soda from alumina plants in Guangxi is expected to increase. The procurement enthusiasm for 32% caustic soda is average during the non - alumina peak season. Exports may improve, and the price elasticity of 50% caustic soda is relatively large. The operating rate of domestic caustic soda plants has increased. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The upstream inventory build - up drags down the caustic soda price. If the geopolitical situation does not improve substantially, there is still a risk of chlor - alkali production cuts, and the market should be treated with cautious optimism [33]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the price differences between different contract months [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis and warehouse receipt data of various varieties, which can reflect the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the inter - variety spreads of different varieties, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., which can help analyze the relative price relationships between different products [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread monitoring data for various chemical products, but specific details are not fully described in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unclear situation of the geopolitical conflict, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The global stagflation expectation faces significant uncertain fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the potential adverse impact of the repeated geopolitical situation on risk assets. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF, while being vigilant about the drag that the further deterioration of market risk appetite may bring to the stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Macroeconomics - The situation of the Iranian geopolitical conflict continues to affect the financial market, and the war situation has fluctuated. On March 26, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a series of large - scale attacks on the infrastructure in Isfahan, increasing market concerns about the further escalation of the war. Iran has responded to the US's 15 - point cease - fire proposal through an intermediary, but believes the US's negotiation stance is part of a "third deception" plan. The market's expectation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been dashed, resulting in a rebound in oil prices and a decline in major assets. The negotiation may still be in the intermediary - mediated stage, and it is difficult to reach a complete agreement quickly in the short term [1]. 3.2 Domestic Macroeconomics - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries on the basis of the "14th Five - Year Plan" indicator framework, and adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. It also prioritizes the rectification of involution - style competition and the promotion of carbon peak work, and improves the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable and has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and the CRB index are at seasonal highs, indicating that external demand remains resilient [1]. 3.3 Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. Be vigilant about the potential adverse impact of the repeated geopolitical situation on risk assets. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant about the drag that the further deterioration of market risk appetite may bring, and it is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. 3.4 Market Conditions of Various Sectors - **Financial Sector**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and risk appetite tightens. Stock index futures are affected by strong geopolitical risks and are in a volatile state; stock index options have a slight increase in implied volatility and are also in a volatile state; treasury bond futures have improved sentiment due to safe - haven demand and loose capital, and are in a volatile state [4]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: In the short term, they are in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the risk of repeated conflicts. Gold and silver are affected by the repeated geopolitical situation, which raises inflation concerns, but the spot drive of silver is still weak, and both are in a volatile state [4]. - **Shipping Sector**: The opening freight rate of MSK has decreased month - on - month. The spot market has declined, and the passage through the strait may improve marginally. The container shipping European line is in a weakly volatile state [4]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: The cost support has weakened, and the prices are falling from high levels. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as cost, production, and inventory [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and basic metals are oscillating and rising. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [4]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The energy shortage continues to affect the market, and the chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply, and demand [5][6]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The supply of pig sources is sufficient, and the price continues to fall. Grains, oils, livestock, and other agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. Among them, the price of live pigs continues to fall, and it is in a weakly volatile state [5][6]. 3.5 Market Fluctuation Data - **Financial Market**: On March 26, 2026, stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined; treasury bond futures such as 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year showed different degrees of increase; the US dollar index increased, and the US dollar intermediate price also changed; interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield also changed [8]. - **Industry Index**: On March 26, 2026, most industries in the CITIC Industry Index declined, with industries such as national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and electronics having relatively large declines, while industries such as coal and oil and petrochemicals had slight increases [9][10]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 25, 2026, energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil declined; precious metals such as COMEX gold and COMEX silver increased; non - ferrous metals such as LME copper and LME aluminum had different trends; agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn increased [11][12]. - **Domestic Commodities**: On March 26, 2026, shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy and chemicals, and agricultural products all showed different degrees of price fluctuations. For example, the container shipping European line increased, while gold and silver declined [13][14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The situation between the US and Iran remains severe, causing platinum and palladium prices to be under pressure and fluctuate. The short - term geopolitical situation leads to significant market volatility, and the long - term weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for platinum valuation, but current geopolitical conflicts still affect market expectations and prices. Palladium follows platinum's fluctuations, with short - term supply disturbances and long - term loosening of supply - demand [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Price**: On March 26, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 4.78%, closing at 487.40 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: Iran has submitted a response to the US regarding the "15 - point proposal" and believes the US negotiation statement is a "third deception." Short - term geopolitical uncertainties increase market volatility, and risk preference is low. In the long run, the long - term weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still influences market expectations and prices [2] - **Outlook**: Platinum prices are expected to fluctuate due to the high uncertainty of the US - Iran situation [2] Palladium - **Price**: On March 26, 2026, the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 5.23%, closing at 353.35 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: There are continuous uncertainties on the supply side. The US has made a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. In the long - term, supply - demand is loosening, and in the short - term, there are supply disturbances, mainly following the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] - **Outlook**: Palladium prices are expected to fluctuate as the spot tightness has eased recently and there is macro - level suppression [3] Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The commodity 20 index is 2811.87, up 0.44%; the industrial products index is 2545.38, up 0.15% [48] - **Plate Index (Non - ferrous Metals)**: On March 26, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2599.38, with a daily increase of 0.19%, a 5 - day increase of 0.86%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.40%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.22% [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical situation remains stalemated, with signs of relaxation in strait passage; the market may still be in a wide - range volatile state. Spot prices in April are under pressure, and offline freight rates may drop to $2000/FEU. The central price of European routes may still have the risk of weakening and moving downward. Geopolitical factors over the weekend are the main influencing factors, and the claim by the Houthis to control the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and the establishment of the passage mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz may bring risk impacts. Currently, the trading volume and open interest of European routes are relatively low, and the liquidity activity is not high. Investors are advised to manage their positions and risks well. The market outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of the geopolitical situation and changes in the spot market [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Freight and Contract Volume - Price - **Futures Contract Data**: EC2604 closed at 1771.4, down 0.9628% with a trading volume of 12470 and an open interest of 10730; EC2605 closed at 2043.6, down 1.2324% with a trading volume of 1403 and an open interest of 1847; EC2606 closed at 2417.3, up 4.6709% with a trading volume of 11695 and an open interest of 13831; EC2607 closed at 2535.2, up 3.8421% with a trading volume of 350 and an open interest of 988; EC2608 closed at 2412.4, up 5.1254% with a trading volume of 900 and an open interest of 2797; EC2609 closed at 1696.9, up 1.8486% with a trading volume of 36 and an open interest of 496; EC2610 closed at 1750, up 4.0854% with a trading volume of 1935 and an open interest of 7193; EC2612 closed at 1750, up 2.6328% with a trading volume of 34 and an open interest of 501 [7] - **Spot Freight Data**: The comprehensive index of SCFI is 1707 points. The freight rate of the Nordic route is $1636/TEU, and SCFIS is 1693.26 (+8.8%); the freight rate of the Mediterranean route is $2784/TEU; the freight rate of the US West route is $2054/FEU, and SCFIS is 1024.11 (-7.7%); the freight rate of the US East route is $2922/FEU [8] Geopolitical and Passage Information - **Geopolitical Situation**: The Houthis claim to be ready to control the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. The US - Iran negotiation continues, and the US military action against Iranian power and energy facilities is postponed for 5 days. Iran rejects the US cease - fire plan and proposes 5 conditions for a cease - fire [2] - **Passage Situation**: Iran is seeking a bill to maintain its sovereignty, dominance, and regulatory power over the Strait of Hormuz and generate revenue through toll collection. The Strait of Hormuz, an international energy artery, has begun to resume a small number of ship passages after almost 25 days of near - suspension. On March 25, there were 4 passages in the Strait of Hormuz. The VLCC freight rate from West Africa to China is updated to $8.5/barrel, a 1.8% decrease from the previous period; the VLCC freight rate from the Middle East to China is updated to $11.13/barrel, a 2.4% decrease from the previous period. For Middle East routes, if outside the Strait of Hormuz, land transportation is used to enter the strait; if entering Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia, ships directly pass through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [3][4] Spot Quotations - **European Route Spot Freight**: GEMINI: MSK's online freight rate for European routes in early April rose to $2350/FEU, a $10 increase from the previous day. HPL SPOT's freight rate in early April is $2635 - $3035/FEU. OCEAN: OOCL's online freight rate at the end of March is $2737/FEU, and the quote in early April is $2847 - $2880/FEU. EMC's special - price voyage CES on April 1 is $2650/FEU, and the freight rate for other voyages in April is $3060/FEU, a $300 decrease from the previous week. MSC&PA: MSC's online freight rate in early April is $2852/FEU; ONE's online freight rate dropped to $2555/FEU at the end of March and reached $3061/FEU in April [1][2]