Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/02/ 10-0925 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要 Abstract News: China's 1-year and 5-year LPR remain unchanged (PBOC). Prices: Most equity ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-25 供需预期分化，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：供需预期分化，碳酸锂领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继续延 后，供应扰动担忧持续，供需预期偏紧；工业硅和多晶硅生产企业主 动适应弱需求而减产，但工业硅和多晶硅供需整体延续偏宽松。中短 期来看，新能源金属远期供需预期不同，新能源金属价格走势分化， 碳酸锂相对偏强。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅， 价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断 拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价格重心。 ⼯业硅观点：供需双弱，硅价延续震荡。 多晶硅观点：库存持续累积，多晶硅暂时承压。 碳酸锂观点：IEEPA关税失效引发抢出⼝预期，碳酸锂开盘⼤涨。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-25 基本金属震荡整理，关注下游消费恢复 进展 有⾊观点：基本⾦属震荡整理，关注下游消费恢复进展 交易逻辑：据汇通财经网数据，近期美国公布的经济数据偏弱，美联储降 息预期有所升温，尽管关税政策再度出现反复，但考虑到当下美联储降息 预期也在摇摆，估计短期可能还是会对基本金属构成一定压制。原料端延 续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。终端偏弱，现 实供需偏宽松，但中期供需收紧预期仍在，密切跟踪下游消费恢复进展。 整体来看，短期基本金属偏震荡，中期美联储独立性风险和供应扰动担忧 仍在，铜铝锡镍等品种有望维持震荡偏强走势。 铜观点：特朗普关税被否，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：减产预期博弈过剩现实，氧化铝价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：库存累积明显，铝价震荡运⾏。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑延续，价格震荡运⾏。 锌观点：美国关税政策反复，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：伦铅库存⼤幅累积，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：印尼26年镍矿配额落地，镍价偏强运⾏。 不锈钢观点：镍价震荡⾛⾼，不锈钢盘⾯上⾏。 锡观点：暂⽆明显驱动，锡价震荡运⾏。 ⻛险 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Potential [4] - Zinc: Potential [4] - Sugar: On hold [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative in 2026, with the USD index expected to range between 95 - 102. The RMB may show a stable upward trend with limited depreciation space [7]. - For cross - border arbitrage of various commodities, different strategies are recommended based on their respective market conditions, such as long LME copper and short SHFE copper for copper futures, and long LME zinc and short SHFE zinc for zinc futures. For most other commodities, a wait - and - see approach is suggested [4][6][37][51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference and overseas price difference fluctuated. This week, due to the neutral valuation of the domestic - international price difference and the high - level volatility of the RMB exchange rate, it's recommended to hold off on cross - market arbitrage [13]. - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference first rose and then fell, and the overseas price difference declined. This week, as the domestic - international price difference has returned to a neutral level and the tightness of overseas silver spot has marginally eased, the strategy of shorting the domestic - international price difference should be exited [19]. - **Platinum**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the previous high - premium situation in the domestic market was rectified. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [25]. - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the high - premium state was rectified. This week, cross - border arbitrage should be put on hold [31]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, the LME cancellation warrant ratio was high, the overseas squeeze risk remained, and the import profit of forward contracts was unlocked. This week, it's recommended to focus on taking a long position in LME copper and a short position in SHFE copper in forward contracts [37]. - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to accumulate, while overseas inventories decreased. In the short term, the exchange ratio fluctuated within a range. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [42]. - **Zinc**: Last week, zinc ingot exports gradually decreased, the accumulation speed of LME zinc inventory slowed down, and domestic zinc ingot inventory seasonally accumulated. This week, it's recommended to focus on going long on LME zinc and shorting SHFE zinc [51]. - **Lead**: Last week, LME lead inventory significantly accumulated again, and the domestic lead ingot import window closed. This week, cross - market arbitrage of lead ingots should be put on hold [52]. - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window closed, the nickel balance ratio fluctuated, and domestic and foreign inventories remained at relatively high levels. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [59]. - **Tin**: Last week, the short - term tin balance ratio fluctuated, the inventories of Shanghai tin and LME tin both increased, and the domestic - international price difference was not significant. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [63]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant driving factors. This week, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [67]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent spread fluctuated and rebounded. This week, due to the stability of Middle - East crude oil spot, the large fluctuation of freight rates, and the potential geopolitical risks, it's recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Natural Gas**: Last week, the TFU - HH spread fluctuated widely. This week, it's recommended to reduce positions or exit. In the short term, the trading of overseas gas prices mainly depends on the weather, and in the medium term, the fundamentals may tighten in the US and loosen in Europe, which is negative for the TFU - HH spread [104]. 3.5 Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the soybean crushing profit fluctuated weakly. The US soybean price was strong due to optimistic export expectations, while the domestic market sentiment was weak after the pre - holiday stockpiling ended. This week, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [73]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the domestic - international sugar price difference was at a historically high level and continued to widen. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [78]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there were no major changes, and the price spread was within the non - arbitrage range. With the approaching of the global rubber tapping season, supply is expected to increase, but demand remains weak. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [82]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the market's expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates decreased, putting pressure on the copper price spread between COMEX and LME. However, the expectation of US copper tariffs limited the downward space. This week, arbitrage between COMEX and LME copper should be put on hold [89]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS fluctuated. This week, as the OPEC+ April production policy is undetermined and the Middle - East geopolitical situation is tense, it's recommended to wait and see [94]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent spread narrowed. This week, although the US refined oil inventory is decreasing, the strengthening of oil freight rates has widened the cross - regional spread, and its sustainability needs further observation. It's recommended to wait and see [100]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: See the content under the "Energy" section [104].

2026-02-24 関 货 有 限 公 司 陆地库存趋稳, 浮 仓大幅攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 图表 9:俄罗斯原油库存 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 据Kpler数据，2月22日当周，全球全口径（含在途）原油库存相对稳定，全球陆上原油库存小幅回落，但浮仓库存大幅攀升。分地区看，印度 及俄罗斯原油库存增加,中国、中东、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 十四 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 - 2025 · 2024 - 2023 - 2022 3600000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 345000 120000 3400000 900000 3350000 33000000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原流 图表 4:全球陆地+海上(含 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2023 - 20 ...

i 自 限公司 npany Limited IEEPA关税失效引发抢出口预期,碳酸锂开盘大涨 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 风险因素:政策变动;供应端超预期复产;需求不及预期 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 王雨欣 从业资格号:F03108000 投资咨询号:Z0021453 量新动态及原因 今日碳酸锂价格开盘增仓大涨，主力合约一度涨超8％。价格上涨主要原因是特朗普IEEPA关税被判违法引起的轮出口预期带来的。新华社报道，当地时间2月20日，美国最高法院裁定特朗 取府核靠'国际紧急经济及力法'(IEEPA) 征收的一揽子全球关税缺乏法律依据。因此无效，判决公布后，特朗普迅速宣布将通过其他法律手段推出新的10%全球关税。为明150天。相较于此 前，关税整体降低10%，可能会刺激出口需求的增加。此外，当前供需基本面偏强，市场预期节后紧平衡局面延续，同时春节期间，资金情绪有所修复, 基本面情况 从基本面来看，当下碳酸锂基本面仍然较强，资金筒维对价格影响较大。1-2月供应维持相时强劲，虽有部分企业检修减产，但整体处于高位;同时需求表现较好，下游在价格回调后备货积 极 ...

股市⻛格偏向IM，债市维持震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-24 股指期货：春节外围交易科技事件，⽀撑IM⻛格 股指期权：续持买权防御 国债期货：短期债市维持震荡 股指期货方面，春节外围交易科技事件，支撑IM风格。春节假日期 间，港股偏弱势下行，其中恒科再创2025年8月以来新低；美股三大指 数、富时中国A50震荡收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数探底回升。主要交易 三大事件，一是美伊谈判出现波折，地缘局势紧张，推高避险和战略商品 价格；二是春晚效应，AI应用、机器人等在春晚高频出现，催化港股新质 生产力板块活跃；三是海外科技事件，谷歌发布更强模型、特斯拉无人车 投产提前，推动美股科技巨头企稳反弹。而春节消费方面，春运人员流动 量、春节档电影总场次预计创历史新高。 假期事件对权益市场的影响中 性偏积极，节后港股开门红，三大指数均高开收涨。A股开市预计也将延 续温和上行，但斜率较1月放缓，核心计价春节消费偏暖与科技事件热 点，风格偏向IM。同时也需注意，节后进入重要会议窗口期，政策看涨期 权即将兑现，"春季躁动"或进入尾声，建议持有IM多单。 股指期 ...

研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 据Kpler数据，2月22日当周，全球全口径（含在途）原油库存相对稳定，全球陆上原油库存小幅回落，但浮仓库存大幅攀升。分地区看，印度 及俄罗斯原油库存增加,中国、中东、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 2026-02-24 関 货 有 限 公 司 陆地库存趋稳, 浮 仓大幅攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 图表 8:欧洲原油库存 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 十四 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 - 2025 · 2024 - 2023 - 2022 3600000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 345000 120000 3400000 900000 3350000 33000000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原流 图表 4:全球陆地+海上(含 2024 - 2023 ...

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-13 非农数据好于预期，铂钯价格小幅回落 据CNBC报道，隔夜公布的美国1⽉⾮农就业数据⼈⼝好于预期，失业率出 现下降。今⽇美元指数⼩幅⾛强，铂钯价格承压下⾏。据同花顺数据，截 ⾄2026年2⽉12⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价544.9元/克，跌幅 1.05%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为430.05元/克，跌幅1.48%。 铂观点：美国非农数据好于预期，铂金小幅回落 主要逻辑：据CNBC,美国1月非农就业人数增加13万，高于预期，失业率降 至4.3%。今日美元指数小幅走强，铂金价格承压回落。短期来看，当前欧 洲对俄罗斯铂族金属制裁预期抬升、美伊地缘问题反复、美联储降息预期 波动均持续扰动市场，加之长假临近资金交投趋于谨慎，市场仍处于震荡 整理的阶段。长期来看，美国仍处于降息通道中，特朗普造成的美联储独 立性受损和全球政治经济秩序松动，促使美元信用走弱的长期趋势延续， 有利于价格长期弹性的释放。策略方面，本周铂钯比值回落到偏低位区 间，建议择机关注多铂空钯机会。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，中长 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-13 股市领涨⾏业再度切换，债市⽌盈动⼒ 或有所上升 股指期货：领涨⾏业再度切换 股指期权：续持买权防御为主 国债期货：⽌盈动⼒或有所上升 股指期货方面，领涨行业再度切换。周四权益市场偏暖为主，双创风 格领涨，中证500、中证1000表现次之，电子、电新、计算机活跃，领涨 行业切换至成长。与此同时，关注到A股、港股表现割裂，恒生科技下 跌，部分资金担心港股节日期间拖累A股的可能性。从港股回撤原因来 看，与多方面因素有关，一是2月港股IPO提速，影响微观流动性，二是科 技股面临外卖等事件冲击，三是日韩等亚太市场近期强势，不排除资金分 流的可能。对于前述猜测，目前认为可能性偏低，一方面，港股相较前高 已累积一定跌幅，与美股走势有脱敏的可能性，另一方面，美元指数上行 势头止住，流动性层面利于配置。综上，仍建议配置IM多单。 股指期权方面，续持买权防御为主。昨日权益指数震荡整理。期权方 面，各个品种市场成交额有所反弹，但相较于前两周市场波动下的流动性 升温，本周期权交投量能依旧相对平稳。隐含波动率日内走势整体偏强， 考虑 ...