期货有限公司 Futures Company Limited 供应扰动与制裁消息压制市场情绪,碳酸锂多合约跌停 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 8月20日，碳酸锂期货多合约跌停，主力合约至8080元吨。今日碳酸铜跌停主要受突发事件犹动影响，一方面，8月19日江特电机发布公告称全资下属公司直春钢锂将于近日正式复卫 复产，带来情绪科空。另一方面，8月19日美国国土安全部 (DHS)宣布新增钢铁、铜、锂、烧碱和匹瓦列为所谓《柴否/强迫劳动预防法》的高度优先的法行业、该法眼制效减定为强迫我或 制造的中国商品进入美国,对国内锂相关产品出口美国造成压力,市场对锂供应链风险的担忧加剧。 基本面情况 近期供应端持续存在挑动，宜春银锂此前因设备检修停产约1个月，后续复产后将逐步恢复理盐生产，预计月度影响量级在1000吨左右，对供应实际影响相对有限，但情绪补空影响较 大、另外，市场对采矿会规问题图优持续，藏格型业盐湖项目和宁德时代机下第胜云母项目信声，其余青海和江西的塑料"主"企业同样面临采矿许可证明的潜在停产风险，碳酸锂供应碳 就动在演剧网仍为市场关注焦点、基本面来看变化不大、银相百川数据，7月胆矿进口75. ...

进口量符合预期,日韩贡献主要增量 2025/08/20 童丹丹 杨家明 杨晖宇 投资咨询业务资格: 从业资格号:F03142141 从业资格号:F3046931 从业资格号:F03086737 证监许可【2012】669号 投资咨询号: Z0021744 投资咨询号:Z0015448 投资咨询号: Z0020561 伊 究 陈子昂 尹伊君 李六旭 晨 杨黎 从业资格号:F03108012 从业资格号:F03141405 从业资格号:F03107980 从业资格号:F03141405 投资咨询号: Z0021454 投资咨询号: Z0021451 投资咨询号: Z0021671 投资咨询号: Z0021671 风险提示: 宏观政策落地效果不及预期;纯苯进口偏离预期;装置预期外检修或恢复;油价波动。 中国纯苯月度进口量 韩国→中国 千吨 万陣 600 35 30 500 25 400 20 300 15 200 10 100 5 0 0 12 1 2 3 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 0 10 11 t 6 6 东南亚→中国 本→中国 万吨 万吨 -2024 -- 2025 202 ...

CM》中 信 期 货 有 限 公 司 原油产量持稳,成品需求平淡 ──EIA石油月度供应报告 \\\10 / CITIC Futures Company Limited 2025-08-20 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 EIA7月石油供应报告对美国6月产需情况进行确认。5月美国原油产量1348 8万桶/日，轩比增2.4万桶/日，油价中枢下移后产量韧性仍有体 现。需求方面，5月美国石油产品需求2002. 3万桶/日，环比增11万桶/日，增速弱于季节性。其中汽油需求延续季节性增长，环比增速17.4万桶/ 日，但柴油需求环比降9.4万桶/日，汽柴油需求均为五年同期低位。因炼化利润好转、炼厂进科的净投入5月环比增72.4万桶/日，脱离了3至4月 的同比低迷态势。 风险提示:地缘冲突,美国对外制裁政策,OPEC+产量政策。 图表 1: 美国石油产品月度总需求 千桶/日 2022 2021 2023 2025 2024 图表 2: 美国汽油月度需求 2021 2025 - 2024 -- 2023 2022 21500 21000 20000 19000 18000 17 ...

进口量符合预期,日韩贡献主要增量 2025/08/20 童丹丹 杨家明 杨晖宇 投资咨询业务资格: 从业资格号:F03142141 从业资格号:F3046931 从业资格号:F03086737 证监许可【2012】669号 投资咨询号: Z0021744 投资咨询号:Z0015448 投资咨询号: Z0020561 伊 究 陈子昂 尹伊君 李六旭 晨 杨黎 从业资格号:F03108012 从业资格号:F03141405 从业资格号:F03107980 从业资格号:F03141405 投资咨询号: Z0021454 投资咨询号: Z0021451 投资咨询号: Z0021671 投资咨询号: Z0021671 (1)总量上:根据海关数据,2025年7月国内纯苯进口量50.8万吨,整体符合预期。环比+15.3万吨, t+43.3%,增加较多是统计时间口径差异和到货延迟所致;同比+15.8万吨,+45.3%,同比高增主要是美国 不再分流韩国纯苯所致。 风险提示: 宏观政策落地效果不及预期;纯苯进口偏离预期;装置预期外检修或恢复;油价波动。 中国纯苯月度进口量 韩国→中国 千吨 万陣 600 35 30 500 25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different financial derivatives are as follows: The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias"; for stock index options, it is "oscillating"; and for treasury bond futures, it is "oscillating with a slight downward bias" [9][10][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures. The stock index futures market has broken through a key point with active incremental funds, and the upward trend is expected to continue. In the stock index options market, it is advisable to observe the persistence of the volatility inflection point and continue to hold bull spread strategies. The treasury bond futures market is affected by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect and capital tightening, and there are opportunities for curve steepening and long - end arbitrage [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and closed flat on Tuesday, with trading volume slightly narrowing to 2.64 trillion yuan. After breaking through a 10 - year high, there was a style shift from dividends to growth. The market neutral strategy has faced setbacks since last week, indicating a shift from micro - small caps to small - medium caps. With positive sentiment indicators, there is no need to overly worry about pullbacks in August. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [3][9] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying assets oscillated weakly, with only the CSI 1000 Index rising by 0.07%, while the SSE 50 ETF fell by 1.14%. Option trading volume declined by about 30%. Volatility decreased in most options. It is advisable to observe whether the morning volatility continues to decline and add short - volatility positions if it does. The bull spread strategy can be continued [4][10] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T contract rose due to the stock - bond seesaw effect and some short - sellers taking profits. However, capital tightening restricted the rise. The market risk preference and anti - involution may affect the bond market, and it is advisable to pay attention to curve steepening and long - end arbitrage opportunities [5][10][11] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On August 20, 2025, China's one - year loan prime rate (LPR) in August was announced at 3.35%, higher than the previous and predicted value of 3%. Other data such as China's July全社会 electricity consumption annual rate, the US August SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value, and Japan's July national CPI annual rate are yet to be released [13] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Pension**: On August 19, five departments issued a notice to enrich the scenarios for receiving personal pensions, adding three new scenarios and new application channels, effective September 1 [13] - **Photovoltaic**: On August 19, multiple departments held a photovoltaic industry symposium, calling for strengthening industry regulation, curbing low - price disorderly competition, standardizing product quality, and supporting industry self - regulation [14] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not elaborated in the provided content [15][19][31]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-08-20 原油和煤炭价格双双⾛弱，成本端拖累 化⼯ 由于乌克兰停火前景引发交易商关注，原油价格下跌。尽管自冲突爆 发以来，俄罗斯的原油出口大体上保持正常，但任何最终达成的和平协议 都可能为减少对俄罗斯原油出口的限制铺平道路。特朗普与乌克兰领导人 周一在白宫举行会谈后，致电俄罗斯总统，敦促其着手安排与泽连斯基的 一对一会面。乌克兰表示周一对俄罗斯的"友谊"输油管道系统发动了新 一轮袭击，导致原油供给短暂减量，这是Brent近期略强于WTI的主要原 因。 板块逻辑： 虽然有些供给扰动，原油的反弹却幅度较小，8月19日夜盘焦煤价格 再度大幅走低，化工在成本端拖累下绝对值也都下行。在一片低迷中， 尿素逆势上涨3.59%，究其原因主要是出口预期的改变。中印关系缓和， 中国尿素出口配额或有提升，我国尿素整体产能略过剩，出口的增加将有 助于缓解国内的过剩格局，且从中印的表态看，后期中国出口至印度的尿 素量将有较大增长。 原油：累库压力延续，关注地缘扰动 沥青：沥青期价3500或从支撑变压力 高硫燃油：无视俄炼厂遇袭，高硫燃油偏弱震荡 ...

有⾊观点：需求逐步⾛弱，基本⾦属震荡承压 交易逻辑：7月中国社融数据不及预期，固定资产投资和零售数据延 续回落；美国7月零售增长不及预期，8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数 超预期回落，整体来看，美联储降息预期压制美元指数，这在一定程 度上抵消欧美经济数据走弱的负面影响，但经济走弱对需求的负面影 响不容忽视。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐步季节性趋松，国内库存 逐步季节性回升。中短期来看，弱美元对价格有支撑，但供需逐步趋 松，需求走弱风险在加大，这对基本金属价格有负面压力，逢高沽空 铜锌，长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动 问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，这对基本金属价格有支撑。 铜观点：中美延⻓暂停关税，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：现货微跌仓单增⻓，氧化铝震荡承压。 铝观点：现货贴⽔运⾏，铝价震荡回落。 铝合⾦观点：税返政策调整趋严，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锌观点：⿊⾊系价格下跌，锌价震荡回落。 铅观点：成本⽀撑稳固，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：市场情绪反复，镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈钢观点：仓单⼤幅增⻓，不锈钢延续回调。 锡观点：印尼精炼锡出⼝量下滑，锡价⾼位震荡。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-08-20 供应扰动风险仍存，新能源金属整体延续强 势 新能源观点：供应扰动⻛险仍存，新能源⾦属整体延续强势 交易逻辑：除已经停产的江西大型锂云母项目及国内盐湖项目外， 青海和江西剩下的锂矿生产企业也同样面临采矿许可证到期及潜在停 产风险，国内锂供应扰动不断，9月底之前，供应收缩题材可能无法 证伪，而需求正逐步进入季节性旺季，供需将进入阶段性偏紧状态， 锂价继续领涨新能源金属。中短期来看，供应端收缩预期和成本抬升 预期强化，这对新能源金属价格有支撑，锂供应扰动有望中短期继续 推高锂价，需继续谨防锂价上极端风险，对锂价维持偏多思路为宜； 而工业硅和多晶硅现实供需端面临产能产量高位，供需趋弱，硅价进 一步涨势放缓，硅价整体呈现偏震荡走势，密切留意产业链动向。 长期来看，若供应端无实质性收缩或者需求端无明显好转，硅价存在 回落压力；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，碳酸锂供应高增将限制锂价上 方高度。 ⼯业硅观点：煤炭价格反复，硅价持续波动。 多晶硅观点：市场情绪反复，多晶硅价格宽幅波动。 碳酸锂观点：多空博弈延续，价格震荡回调。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-20 经济数据良莠不⻬，⻩⾦延续震荡 市场静待美联储会议纪要以及俄乌和谈后续进展，⻩⾦延续震荡。 重点资讯： 1) 美国总统特朗普周二表示，他希望俄罗斯总统普京能够朝着结束 乌克兰战争的方向前进，但他也承认普京有可能不想达成协议。 2) 美国总统特朗普在推动乌克兰和平进程中提出，美国可能以提 供"空中支援"而非派遣地面部队的方式，作为对乌克兰战后安全保 证的一部分，并正积极安排俄乌总统双边会谈以促成停火。 3) 中国和印度边界问题特别代表第24次会晤周二在新德里举行。 中方特别代表、中央外办主任王毅表示，双方应通过对话沟通增进互 信，扩大交流合作，共同推动在边境管控、划界谈判、跨境交流等方 面汇聚共识、明确方向、设定目标，妥善解决具体问题，为两国关系 改善发展不断营造有利条件。 4) 美国7月营建许可总数不及预期，公布为135.4万户，低于市场预 期的138.6万户；新屋开工数据意外强劲，公布142.8万户，高于预期 的129万户。 价格逻辑： 周二，黄金价格低波震荡，市场静待美联储会议纪要以及俄乌和谈后 续进展。周二 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].