1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - economic outlook is negative, with the joint US - Israel strike on Iran reducing Middle East crude oil supply and pushing up oil prices, leading to inflation risks. The Fed's interest rate decision is hawkish. Basic metals are experiencing panic selling, with prices expected to be under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the duration of the US - Iran conflict and oil price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Macro - risk aversion has increased, causing copper prices to drop significantly. The Fed's stance is hawkish, and the US dollar index has risen, pressuring copper prices. Copper supply is tight, and demand is improving. In the short term, copper prices are expected to be volatile [6][7]. - **Alumina**: The non - ferrous sector has seen a collective sell - off, and alumina prices have fallen from high levels. The market is in a state of slight surplus, but cost support exists. It is expected to have wide - range volatility [7]. - **Aluminum**: With a pessimistic macro outlook, aluminum prices have declined. Supply and demand are in a state of balance, and in the short term, prices are expected to remain high and volatile. In the medium term, the price center may rise [8][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price has declined following the aluminum ingot. Cost support is strong, and supply and demand are stable. It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short and medium terms [17]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventories have increased significantly, and zinc prices are declining. In the short term, prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of decline [13][14]. - **Lead**: The non - ferrous sector sentiment is weak, and lead prices are declining. Supply and demand are in a state of balance, and prices are expected to be volatile [16][19]. - **Nickel**: The non - ferrous sector has corrected, and nickel prices have fallen. Supply pressure has slightly decreased, but inventories are high. It is expected to be slightly bullish, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [20][21]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market has corrected following the decline in nickel prices. Cost support exists, and production is expected to increase. It is expected to be slightly bullish, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [22][23]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment has weakened, and tin prices have dropped significantly. Supply is expected to increase, but demand is also growing. Prices are expected to be volatile [23]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On March 19, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% [150]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 19, 2026, the index was 2616.34, with a daily decline of 2.17%, a 5 - day decline of 3.56%, a 1 - month decline of 2.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.59% [152].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the overall panic sentiment in the non - ferrous market has spread to the new energy metal market, putting pressure on new energy metal prices. In the long - run, the expected path of polysilicon supply contraction has shifted from administrative clearance to market - based clearance, with prices expected to fluctuate widely. For lithium ore, although production capacity is rising, the expected demand is high, the expected supply - demand surplus is narrowing, and the supply - demand improvement is expected to push up the price center [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has weakened, and silicon prices have declined [7]. - **Information Analysis**: As of March 19th, the price of Tongyang 553 in Xinjiang was 8,650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,300 yuan/ton. The price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,750 yuan/ton. As of last week, domestic inventory was 437,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In February, industrial silicon production was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%. In 2025, cumulative production was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. In December, industrial silicon exports were 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. From January to December, cumulative exports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the operation rate in the southwest during the dry season has dropped to a very low level, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. Although the operation rate of large northwest factories has recovered and stabilized, long - term over - supply pressure remains. On the demand side, polysilicon inventory consumption pressure is high, and the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries for industrial silicon is weak [7]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon remains in a loose supply - demand pattern, with prices expected to fluctuate in the medium - to - long term and remain under pressure [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Inventory is at a high level, putting pressure on polysilicon prices [7]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 19th, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 45.5 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. On the same day, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,910 lots, with no change [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, macro - hedging sentiment has increased, dragging down polysilicon prices. In terms of supply, production in the southwest is still in a reduced state during the dry season, and overall production is low. On the demand side, demand remains weak, inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt numbers are increasing, pressuring prices. In the long run, supply is also contracting, and leading enterprises are strengthening mergers and acquisitions, so future supply - demand may tighten, and prices may fluctuate widely [8]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, polysilicon prices may fluctuate widely [8]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The combination of macro and demand expectations has put pressure on lithium prices [8]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 19th, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 5.01% to 142,600 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 25,396 lots to 595,675 lots. The morning - session spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2,750 yuan/ton, and the evening - session price was 144,950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9,250 yuan/ton. The morning - session price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton, and the evening - session price was 144,950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9,250 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,029 lots to 34,740 lots [8][9][10]. - **Main Logic**: There is a divergence between the initial and terminal demand for lithium carbonate. In March, supply - demand is still strong, but terminal performance needs further observation. In the first quarter of 2026, supply remained relatively strong, and demand was also good, maintaining a tight balance. However, new energy vehicle sales from January to February were not optimistic, and if the power demand in March is still negative, there is a high risk that the initial demand from April to May will fall short of expectations [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, supply - demand is in a tight balance, but demand shows signs of weakening, so prices are expected to fluctuate [11]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The report does not provide specific monitoring content for industrial silicon other than the information in the "行情观点" section. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The report does not provide specific monitoring content for polysilicon other than the information in the "行情观点" section. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - The report does not provide specific monitoring content for lithium carbonate other than the information in the "行情观点" section. 3.3中信期货商品指数 3.3.1综合指数 - On March 19, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2,569.19, a decrease of 0.50%. The commodity 20 index was 2,885.41, a decrease of 1.06%. The industrial products index was 2,567.44, an increase of 0.39% [48][49]. 3.3.2特色指数 - The report does not provide specific information on the characteristic index. 3.3.3板块指数 - For the new energy commodity index on March 19, 2026, the closing value was 483.92, with a daily decrease of 3.99%, a 5 - day decrease of 7.59%, a one - month decrease of 5.34%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.06% [51].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the outlooks are as follows: - Oils and fats: Oscillatory [7][8] - Protein meals: Oscillatory [9] - Corn: Oscillatory [10][11] - Hogs: Oscillatory and weakening [11] - Natural rubber: Oscillatory [12][14] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillatory and strengthening [15] - Cotton: Oscillatory and strengthening [16] - Sugar: Oscillatory [18] - Pulp: Oscillatory [20] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [20][22] - Logs: Oscillatory [23] Group 2: Core Views - The overall agricultural market is currently characterized by complex and diverse trends, with different commodities showing various price movements and supply - demand relationships. The market is significantly influenced by factors such as macroeconomics, geopolitics, and seasonal patterns. For example, the hog market is facing high supply and weak demand, while the oil and fat market is affected by geopolitical tensions and supply - demand dynamics in the international market. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Oils and fats continue to oscillate. Geopolitical factors in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, affecting the cost of vegetable oils. Different types of oils have their own supply - demand situations. For example, palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in the first half of March, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [8]. Protein Meals - **View**: Trading is清淡, and the two major protein meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) oscillate in a narrow range. International factors such as inflation concerns in the US, geopolitical tensions, and the progress of Brazilian soybean harvest affect the price of soybeans, which in turn impacts protein meals. Domestically, the import cost has slightly decreased, but the decline in the futures price is limited. The spot market has light trading volume [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory [9]. Corn - **View**: The market maintains a tight balance, and the futures price oscillates. The supply is affected by factors such as farmers' selling rhythm and the increase in wheat supply. The demand from downstream enterprises is mainly for replenishment, and the market is in a state of game between supply and demand [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short - term. In the medium - term, it has a bullish tendency based on the annual supply - demand balance [11]. Hogs - **View**: Supply remains high, and hog prices continue to decline. In the short - term, supply exceeds demand due to high inventory and low consumption. In the medium - term, the supply pressure will continue until August 2026. In the long - term, hog prices may gradually pick up in the third quarter of 2026 [11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and weakening. It is recommended that the industrial sector consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year and anti - arbitrage strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The macro - environment is weak, and rubber prices continue to decline. The market is affected by the macro - economic downturn, the expected high yield in the Yunnan production area, and the decline in tire orders to the Middle East [12][14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price is relatively firm. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a reduction in the supply of butadiene, driving up the price of synthetic rubber. Although the fundamentals are weak, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall under the current geopolitical situation [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and strengthening. The price will remain strong in the short - term if oil prices continue to rise [15]. Cotton - **View**: The macro - sentiment is bearish, and cotton prices continue to correct. The fundamentals are generally good, but there is a lack of new upward drivers. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but the upside is limited in the short - term [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a long - term buying strategy on dips [16]. Sugar - **View**: Short - term domestic and international sugar prices oscillate with oil prices. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, but oil price fluctuations may affect the sugar - to - ethanol ratio in Brazil, thereby influencing sugar supply [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The domestic price range can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [18]. Pulp - **View**: Pulp shows signs of stabilizing after continuous decline. The fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and low downstream demand. However, the cost provides a certain support [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation strategy, with support at 4950 - 5050 yuan/ton and resistance at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton [20]. Offset Paper - **View**: It oscillates weakly. The market is generally stable, with some price increases. The paper mills have inventory pressure, and the demand from downstream printers is average. The price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [20][22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [22]. Logs - **View**: Geopolitical factors increase the volatility of logs. The price is mainly driven by cost factors, such as the increase in freight and exchange rate. In the short - term, the futures price oscillates strongly, but in the medium - term, it may face pressure due to increased supply [23]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to operate within the range of 780 - 830 yuan/cubic meter [23]. Group 4: Commodity Index Data - On March 19, 2026, the comprehensive commodity index was 2569.19, with a change of - 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, with a change of - 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, with a change of + 0.39%. - The agricultural product index on March 19, 2026 was 968.39, with a daily change of - 0.19%, a 5 - day change of - 1.96%, a one - month change of + 4.04%, and a year - to - date change of + 3.79% [185][187].

Group 1: Investment Rating - None mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Interest rate cut convergence and deterioration of risk appetite led to a significant adjustment in precious metals [2] - Geopolitical conflicts causing inflation and delaying interest rate cuts are the core factors suppressing precious metal prices, and the March FOMC meeting strengthened this logic [4] - Short - term risk prevention is recommended, while long - term trends are optimistic. Pay attention to the rhythm of stagflation trading and the interest rate path guidance after the换届 of the Fed Chairman [5] Group 3: Summary by Key Content Precious Metal Price Movements - On March 19, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17,984 yuan/kg, a decline of 10.35%, and the main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,062 yuan/g, a decline of 4.64%. The spot price of London gold dropped below $4,700/ounce, and the spot price of London silver dropped below $70/ounce [4] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Prices - Geopolitical conflicts have shifted market expectations from a blitz to a long - term war, with rising energy prices and a negative impact on precious metal prices. The March FOMC meeting showed that most members supported maintaining the policy interest rate, and the Fed raised GDP and inflation expectations, while the market priced in a delay in interest rate cuts [4] - Deterioration of risk appetite led to a decline in the equity market, which dragged down commodities. When the equity market drops significantly, there is a risk of selling precious metals due to liquidity squeeze [5] Investment Suggestions - In the short term, focus on risk prevention as precious metals may experience weak adjustments, and beware of sharp declines due to liquidity squeeze. In the long term, the decline of the US dollar's status may benefit gold, while silver's elasticity may be restricted. Pay attention to the development of geopolitical conflicts and the impact of the Fed Chairman's换届 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that due to the continuous high freight rates, the change in bauxite export policies, and the adjustment of the supply - demand balance, the alumina price is expected to remain volatile in the short term. In the medium - term, the supply - demand logic will gradually relax. It is recommended to maintain a short - term long position with a regular or light - position low - buying strategy, while closely observing the implementation details of Guinea's policies and changes in new production capacity [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The aluminum market showed relative strength, with the price breaking through the 3,100 yuan/ton mark [2]. Fundamental Situation - **Bauxite**: As of September 18, the freight from Guinea to China has risen to $30.5, a $6 increase compared to August. The price of spot orders has increased by $6 per ton. Guinea's operating mines have a total agreed production capacity of about 3 billion tons per year, and the actual bauxite export volume in 2026 was about 1.8 billion tons, accounting for about 60% of the agreed production and sales. Guinea is implementing a "quota system" for bauxite in April, which may aim to maintain mining profits and accelerate the construction of local alumina plants. There is an expectation of a marginal tightening of bauxite shipments, but the specific impact magnitude depends on further detailed rules [3]. - **Supply**: According to Aladdin data, due to production cuts by large domestic alumina plants, the operating production and sales of alumina have dropped to 93.9 million tons, while the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4.946 million tons. The balance coefficient between the two is 2.09, and the surplus has narrowed. However, there are still expectations of new production and sales in the supply side at home and abroad from a medium - term perspective [3]. - **Demand**: Recently, there have been production disruptions in electrolytic aluminum plants in the Middle East, leading to a weakening of the overseas demand for alumina. Currently, the alumina import window has opened, which may increase the marginal pressure on supply [3]. Summary and Strategy - In the short term, the alumina price is expected to remain volatile. In the medium - term, the supply - demand logic will gradually relax. It is recommended to maintain a regular or light - position low - buying short - term long position. The implementation details of Guinea's policies and changes in new production capacity need to be further observed [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The seasonal characteristics of crude oil inventory accumulation and refined product inventory depletion continue after the refinery operating rate deviates from the high at the beginning of the year. The data at the beginning of March has not been significantly affected by the sharp reduction in Middle East supply, and subsequent attention should be paid to the rhythm of SPR release and changes in net exports of crude oil and petroleum products [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory and Production - In the week of March 13, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 5.436 million barrels, and diesel inventory decreased by 2.527 million barrels [4] - US crude oil production was 13.668 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day from the previous value [4] - The refinery operating rate rose from 90.8% to 91.4%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 63,000 barrels per day [4] Demand - US refined product apparent demand was 21.639 million barrels per day, an increase from the previous value of 21.201 million barrels per day [4] - US gasoline apparent demand was 8.728 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous value of 9.241 million barrels per day [4] - US diesel apparent demand was 4.399 million barrels per day, an increase from the previous value of 4.065 million barrels per day [4] Trade - US crude oil imports were 7.194 million barrels per day, an increase from the previous value of 6.422 million barrels per day [4] - US crude oil exports were 4.898 million barrels per day, an increase from the previous value of 3.434 million barrels per day [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock and bond markets are showing signs of improvement. For stock index futures, the downside is limited, and it is advisable to hold a bottom - position. For stock index options, it is recommended to continue holding call options for defense. For bond futures, the sentiment in the bond market is gradually recovering [1][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market Outlook Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the equity market rebounded in a volatile manner, with the ChiNext and STAR Market leading the gains, while finance, real estate, and petrochemical sectors were weak. The decline in the center of crude oil futures led to a rotation of market styles. The sustainability of the market needs attention, as trading volume remained low (slightly exceeding 2 trillion yuan) and the open interest of stock index futures did not increase significantly. However, the overall downward space is judged to be limited, and it is recommended to hold a bottom - position of IM. The focus should be on geopolitical developments, especially the convergence of crude oil spot prices [1][6]. Stock Index Options - Affected by market conditions, the trading volume of each option variety slightly increased, the option sentiment indicator (open interest PCR) dropped significantly, and the implied volatility was relatively strong, indicating a strong hedging atmosphere. It is recommended to continue holding call options for defense to protect the systematic risks of the overall position [1][6]. Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment continued to recover. The T - contract of bond futures trended upward in a volatile manner, and the motivation for long - positions to enter the market was relatively strong. The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the recent decline in oil prices may have spurred the long - position sentiment in the bond market, and inflation concerns may not have further intensified. Although there was tax payment and a small net withdrawal of funds by the central bank, the overall liquidity remained loose, which was favorable for the bond market. The short - end of the bond market remained relatively strong, and the long - end interest rate declined, showing a bullish steepening of the yield curve. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle - East conflict and inflation expectations, and the cost - effectiveness of bond allocation may increase again [2][7]. 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring data of stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures, but no specific content is provided in the given text [8][12][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the lingering stagflation risk, along with cautious expectations for the peak season, inventory pressure in the industrial chain, and limited bright spots in the fundamentals, result in insufficient upward drive for the market. However, due to uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in coking coal and coke prices following crude oil, continuous disturbances in the iron ore supply, tightened liquidity expectations for some spot varieties, and the expected increase in hot metal production, there is still support at the cost end. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate due to supply and geopolitical disturbances. In the long - term, the high inventory pressure is difficult to ease, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure will be greater, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly oscillating [1] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - demand weakness has marginally improved, with demand recovery slightly faster than supply, providing some support for prices. It is expected to follow the rise of finished product prices in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price rebound of finished products and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand are increasing, with hot metal复产 possibly faster. The cost - end price has risen, and the spot support is strong. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, and the actual pressure on the fundamentals remains due to high Mongolian coal imports. The spot price is unlikely to rise significantly. The futures price is affected by macro expectations and geopolitical conflicts. It may be strong if the geopolitical conflict persists, and oscillate if it eases [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, with high upstream inventory and resistance in cost transmission. There is significant selling pressure on the futures market, and the high - level valuation above the cost line has a callback risk [2][15] - **Silicon Iron**: The market inventory pressure is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose and suppressing the upward price space. The current futures valuation is much higher than the comprehensive cost, and there is a risk of a high - level callback [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [2][5][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][5][14] 3.5 Steel - The inventory pressure remains, and the upward drive is limited. The spot trading volume is average. After the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, hot metal production is expected to rise, and the overall supply of five major steel products is expected to recover from a low level. The demand shows resilience but lacks bright spots. The inventory is moderately high, and it will take time to ease the fundamental contradictions. The price upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2581.98, down 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2916.20, down 0.36%; the industrial product index was 2557.35, down 0.31%. The steel industry chain index on March 18, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.08%, a 5 - day increase of 1.25%, a 1 - month increase of 4.31%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.80% [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic outlook is negative due to factors such as the US - Israel joint strike on Iran, which has reduced Middle East crude oil supply, pushed up oil prices, and raised inflation risks, thus weakening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Basic metals are under pressure in the short - term, but aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. In the medium - term, the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends need to be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The US dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. With increasing energy prices, US inflation risks rise, and the US dollar's safe - haven property boosts the index. Copper ore supply is tight, and the smelting profit is falling, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. As the demand peak season approaches, the inventory accumulation of refined copper slows down. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price strengthens in the short - term due to renewed disturbances in the ore end. Although the upstream - downstream balance has improved, it is still slightly in surplus. The cost is supported by rising shipping and auxiliary material prices, while the demand is pressured by electrolytic aluminum production disturbances. Alumina is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts are highly uncertain, causing a slight decline in aluminum prices. The domestic production capacity is stable, while overseas supply is disturbed. The initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but high prices suppress demand. Social inventory continues to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term and may rise in the medium - term [7][8]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The cost support continues, and the price drops slightly. The cost is supported by the high - priced scrap aluminum, and the supply is constrained by policies. The demand is affected by the weakening subsidy policy. The price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - and medium - term [9][15]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory accumulates significantly, and zinc prices decline. The macro - economic slowdown concerns increase, but the situation has slightly improved. The zinc supply is increasing, while the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short - term and have a downward trend in the long - term [11][12]. - **Lead**: The cost support is stable, and lead prices stop falling and rebound. The spot discount widens, and the production of lead ingots increases. Although the demand for electric bicycles is weak, the lead - acid battery operating rate will rise. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. - **Nickel**: High visible inventory suppresses the market, and the price oscillates. The nickel supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory remains high. The adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore quota affects the market's balance expectation. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [17][18][19]. - **Stainless steel**: The high price of nickel - iron supports the stainless - steel market, and the price oscillates. The cost is supported, and the production is expected to increase in March. The terminal demand is cautious. Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [20][21]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment weakens, and tin prices are under pressure. The supply in Wabang and Indonesia is expected to increase, while the supply in Congo (Kinshasa) is at high risk. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is growing. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [22]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined, with decreases of 0.38%, 0.36%, and 0.31% respectively [150]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 18, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index fell by 0.94% on the day, 1.58% in the past 5 days, 0.52% in the past month, and 0.43% since the beginning of the year [152].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict in the Middle East has escalated, disrupting the global energy supply. China, as the world's largest crude oil importer, may release some commercial crude oil reserves to help the petrochemical industry through the current difficulties. The price of chemicals is unlikely to fall significantly due to the increase in cost [2]. - Crude oil will lead the chemical industry to continue its strong and volatile pattern. The prices of various chemical products are affected by geopolitical factors, and the market outlook varies for different products [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The operation risk of energy facilities in the Middle East has increased, and the shortage pattern continues. The market is facing a large supply gap, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The main influencing factors include the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production policy changes, and Sino-US tariff policy adjustments [7]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by geopolitical factors, the asphalt futures price fluctuates at a high level. The refinery's profit has deteriorated, and there is an expectation of a significant reduction in refinery operations. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supported by geopolitical factors, it fluctuates at a high level. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes are pushing up the futures price. In the long term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced, which is a long - term negative factor. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical situation in the short term [8][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the high - level fluctuation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The current valuation is moderately high, and it is expected to fluctuate following crude oil [11]. - **PX**: The supply is expected to be tight due to the contraction of the total supply and structural concessions. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips is maintained [13]. - **PTA**: Traders are actively selling, and the basis is rapidly weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the TA05 - 09 spread is expected to maintain a positive spread logic in the short term [14][15]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is mainly affected by the geopolitical situation and runs strongly in a volatile manner. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [15][17]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to supply and demand, and it runs strongly in a volatile manner. The supply may be reduced, and there is an expectation of increased exports. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [18][19]. - **MEG**: The cost side is still supported, and the price is firm under the reduction of supply. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. - **Short Fibers**: The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with mostly rigid demand transactions. The price follows the upstream and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [21][22]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The intraday trading has become lighter, and the transaction price difference is large. The price follows the upstream raw materials, and the processing fee has a certain support below. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the continuous geopolitical conflict, it fluctuates within a range. The market tends to trade the geopolitical premium, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Urea**: The commercial reserves are concentrated and released, and the price is moderately weak. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand side has some changes. It is expected to fluctuate moderately and may be slightly weak [26]. - **PE**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and it should be treated with caution. Geopolitical factors support the raw material side, but the downstream demand is affected by price increases. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [30][31]. - **PP**: Geopolitical factors boost the support of the raw material side, and it fluctuates strongly. The raw materials such as crude oil and propane still support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [31]. - **PL**: The refinery operation is decreasing, and the downstream is still under pressure. It fluctuates strongly. The operation is decreasing, but the powder profit is still under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [32]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and it is cautiously optimistic. The reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the market, but attention should be paid to the alleviation of the shortage of upstream raw material supply. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is decreasing, and it is cautiously optimistic. The reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the market, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [34][35]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 4.04, change: 0.01), Dubai (M1 - M2: 9.92, change: 0.72), etc. [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, such as asphalt (basis: - 310, change: 9, warehouse receipt: 93980 tons), etc. [38]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 242, change: - 72), etc. [39]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2581.98, with a decline of 0.38%; the commodity 20 index is 2916.20, with a decline of 0.36%; the industrial product index is 2557.35, with a decline of 0.31% [277]. - **Energy Index**: On March 18, 2026, the energy index was 1774.53, with a daily increase of 0.48%, a 5 - day increase of 2.97%, a 1 - month increase of 53.93%, and a year - to - date increase of 63.31% [279].