中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-10 现实预期不佳，盘⾯仍有压⼒ 淡季钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯延续弱势。钢⼚复 产节奏偏缓，但铁矿⽯发运端存在扰动，盘⾯有企稳迹象。冬储临近 尾声，煤焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，盘⾯表现偏弱。玻璃供应端存在扰 动，但玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 淡季钢材端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面延续弱势。钢厂复 产节奏偏缓，但铁矿石发运端存在扰动，盘面有企稳迹象。冬储临近 尾声，煤焦补库支撑逐步转弱，盘面表现偏弱。玻璃供应端存在扰 动，但玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 1. 铁元素方面：库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当 前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开重要会 议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场情绪变 化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，随着补库接近尾声，整 体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-10 全国动⼒煤普遍去库，化⼯延续震荡整 理 原油期货价格延续震荡整理态势，市场焦点依旧在于美伊和谈。彭博 报道，2月6日美伊双方在阿曼进行了初次谈判，美国总统表示会谈进行得 非常好，双方会谈将于本周继续进行。在地缘局势平息前，原油将延续震 荡整理。隆众数据显示，当前煤炭市场价格则受到低库存的支撑，周度看 全国各区域均环比去库，发运倒挂，煤炭价格春节前后维持坚挺的概率较 大。彭博报道，美国天然气期货周一延续跌势，天然气钻机数持续回升为 期价带来压力。 三大一次能源的震荡格局为化工带来一些支撑，化工产业链自身当前 矛盾并不很大。周一液体化工库存公布，隆众数据显示，2月9日当周苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比下滑11.18%，库存绝对值位于五年同期最低；纯苯港 口库存周度环比略增0.34%，纯苯当前依旧是五年同期最高的库存水平；C CF公布数据显示，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增加4.24%。乙二醇和纯苯的 累库属于季节性，苯乙烯的反季节性去库更凸显当前产业格局的健康，高 利润带来的远期开工的回升是隐忧。 原油：地缘溢价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dovish remarks of the San Francisco Fed President eased market expectations of the Fed's hawkish policy, leading to a weaker dollar and a rise in the precious metals sector. As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58%, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - The price of platinum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term due to a weaker dollar and positive macro - expectations. The report suggests seizing opportunities to go long on platinum and short on palladium [2]. - The price of palladium is also expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term, supported by short - term spot shortages and positive macro - environment [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58% [2]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the market is in a wide - range volatile consolidation phase due to factors such as sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues, and Fed rate - cut expectations. In the long term, the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of price elasticity. The platinum - to - palladium ratio has fallen to a relatively low level this week, and it is recommended to consider long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities [2]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - **Main Logic**: There is uncertainty on the supply side, with the US import investigation of Russian unforged palladium pending and Europe considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The palladium lease rate has been rising, and the spot shortage supports the price. On the demand side, there is still structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and Fed rate - cut expectations provide clear support for the price [3]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. Supported by short - term spot shortages and a positive macro - environment [3]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index was 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1404.35, up 0.58% [49]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on February 9, 2026, was 2681.11, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day increase of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.82%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.18% [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n 资产观点：国内权益市场的政策预期和额外流动性依然可以提供上⾏的 ⽀撑。国债整体中性，短端机会好于⻓端，但赔率有限。贵⾦属中的⻩⾦ 维持多头标配，⽩银暂时观望。有⾊⾦属在产业逻辑⽀撑下仍然向好，但 短期内市场挤压拥挤交易泡沫，待市场波动率降低同时，可抓住短期下跌 的机会逢低布局。⿊⾊商品整体偏震荡，原油或在地缘⽀撑下有所上⾏， 但不确定性较⼤，因此建议保持观望。 n ⻛险提⽰：地缘冲突加剧⻛险，关税冲突⼴泛升级，国内增量政策和经 济修复不及预期，美联储货币政策⼤幅偏离预期。 • 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前。 n 今⽇市场：根据Wind数据，今日国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属 涨幅居前，铂金涨10.58%；基本金属全部上涨，沪锡涨6.61%；非金属建 材全部上涨，玻璃涨0.56%；化工品跌幅居前，苯乙烯跌2.87%；农副产品 多数下跌，原木跌1.90%；黑色系全部下跌，硅铁跌1.44%；能源品全部下 跌，低硫燃料油跌1.22%；新能源材料多数下跌，工业硅跌0.82%；航运期 货全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌0.39%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆粕跌0. ...

Report Summary Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking [2] Report Date - February 9, 2026 [3] Researcher Information - Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] - Gan Mang, Qualification No. F03124127, Investment Consultation No. Z0023461 [3] Key Data Points General Bond - As of February 8, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in February was 75.5 billion yuan [4] - This week's new general bond issuance was 75.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 36.3 billion yuan, and next week's planned issuance is 61.6 billion yuan [4] Special Bond - As of February 8, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in February was 134.3 billion yuan [4] Local Government Bond Net Financing - This week's local government bond net financing scale was 578.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 268.1 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 320.5 billion yuan [5] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week's treasury bond net financing scale was 212 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 325.3 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is - 249.9 billion yuan [8] Government Bond Net Financing - This week's government bond net financing was 790.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 593.4 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 70.6 billion yuan [10]

册货有限公司 美国2025年11月产需双弱 EIA石油月度供应报告 res Company Limited 2026-02-09 资料来源:彭博 中信期货研究所 图表 2:美国汽油月度需求 千桶/日 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 8900 9300 9000 8700 8400 8100 7800 7500 2月 4月 5月 7月 8月 12月 1月 3月 6月 8H 10月 11月 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 EI A2026年1月石油供应报告对美国2025年11月产需情况进行确认。据彭博援引自EIA数据，2025年11月美国原油产量1378.2万桶/日，环比减 8.2万桶/日，较前期EIA周度数据的连续增产预估相比，产量预期及环比趋势均有向下的调整，需求方面，虽11月烧厂进科季节性走高，但美国汽 油、柴油、航煤表需均回落,石油产品总需求回落至同期低位。 风险提示:地缘冲突,OPEC+产量政策,宏观风险。 图表 1:美国石油产品月度总需求 千摘/日 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 2200 ...

朗 货 有 限 公 司 欧洲库存回落, 中东库存回升 Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 掘Kpler数据，2月8日当周，全球全口径（含在途）库存回落，开年以来整体呈现震荡态势。据Kpler数据，2月8日当周全球陆上原油库存回 升，主要由中国、中东库存增加带动，印度、欧洲、俄罗斯库存均回落。近两周欧洲库存回落明显。中东库存延续开年以来的升势。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 · - 2023 - 2022 2024 36000000 3550000 3500000 345000 90000 335000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 资料来源:Kpler 中信明倍 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓库 2024 - 2023 - 2022 3800000 3700000 4700000 3600000 35000000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货 ...

周内责金属整体维持调整走势,白银仍波动剧烈,黄金呈现盘整。据万得数据,2月6日沪银主力收于18799元/千克、跌幅 14. 92%，沪金主力收于1090. 12元/克，跌幅2. 02%。日内伦敦金现最低触及4654美元/盎司，伦敦银现最低触及64美元/盎司。 美股等外围资产持续下跌，对贵金属形成情绪、流动性层面冲击。1月29日受相关科技公司业绩影响，美股出现较大幅度下跌， 当晚即对商品市场产生拖累. 随后"沃什交易"进一步对责金属的过热行情形成修正。本周以来美股再度下跌，数字货币等流动性敏感 的资产也出现大幅下挫，外围市场情绪的持续低迷，对贵金属形成负反馈。值得关注的是，在近半年金银的大幅上涨中，价格和美股走 势的联动性加强,风险偏好的交易上贵金属呈现出接近风险资产的特征。 中美元首通话释放积极信号，贵金属对地缘冲突的敏感度边际下降。据外交部发布，2月4日晚间中美元首通话，特朗普表示" 美方愿与中方加强合作，推动两国关系取得新发展"。万得援引央视新闻报道，美东时间2月5日，美国国务院通过"虚拟驻伊朗德黑兰 使馆"发布安全警告称，伊朗全国范围内持续加强安全管控，局势依然紧张，美方敦促美国公民尽快自行离开伊朗。1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-06 美伊谈判前后油价延续⾼波动，烧碱下 ⾏持续性待观察 央视新闻报道，美伊谈判将于2月6日在阿曼举行，谈判前油价高波动 仍在延续，本轮核问题谈判结果将对短期油价形成方向性指引。路透显示 海外柴油裂解价差重回弱势，炼厂毛利相对承压。路透报道俄罗斯对中国 出口的原油折扣幅度继续加大，市场存在对印度购买减量的担忧。伊朗及 俄罗斯地缘局势、OPEC+二季度产量预期等供应端因素仍是2月原油市场关 注的核心，目前地缘溢价仍存，短期重点关注美伊谈判动向及印度对俄罗 斯石油购买进展。 板块逻辑： 油价高波动下化工品市场有所分化，PX及PTA存在终端需求支撑不足 的阶段性压力，纯苯及苯乙烯在3月后的去库预期支撑下价格震荡偏强。 近期液氯价格上调，烧碱下行空间打开，但考虑节前液氯价格可能向下调 整，烧碱以震荡看待。 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：沥青原料供应扰动有望缓解 高硫燃油：燃油期价等待美伊谈判进展 低硫燃油：低硫燃油跟随原油震荡 甲醇：沿海利空显著，甲醇区间震荡 尿素：预售订单支撑，尿素震荡整理 乙二醇：近端到货偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: Kevin Warsh's nomination as a candidate for the new Fed Chair is expected to have limited impact on the market. His policy stance on quantitative tightening may be difficult to implement. The market's expectations for the US monetary policy path are unlikely to change significantly, and investors should also monitor the US-Iran situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The domestic market is expected to continue with positive policy expectations. In Q1, there is a growing expectation that policies will be intensified to achieve a good start for the economy in the 15th Five-Year Plan. The overall policy environment is favorable, which supports a bullish view on risk assets in Q1 [9]. - Asset views: Structured opportunities in portfolio allocation are emphasized. It is recommended to overweight IC and non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectations, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectations can support the upward movement of the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities but limited odds. The precious metals sector has high short - term volatility, and it is recommended to wait for volatility to decline. Non - ferrous metals are relatively strong and can be considered for right - side allocation after a pullback. Black commodities are range - bound, and crude oil has high uncertainty, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Price and Performance Data Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - On February 5, 2026, most index futures showed declines, such as the CSI 500 futures with a daily decline of - 1.59% and a weekly decline of - 2.9%. Treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having a daily increase of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.22% [2]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose by 0.27% on February 5, 2026, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 25 pips. The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate decreased by 0.95 bp [2]. Interest Rates - The 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 1 bp on February 5, 2026, and the US Treasury 10Y - 2Y spread increased by 1 bp [2]. Industry Index - On February 5, 2026, industries such as consumer services, textile and apparel, and food and beverage showed increases, while industries like non - ferrous metals, steel, and machinery showed declines [4]. Domestic Commodities - On February 5, 2026, commodities such as shipping (container shipping to Europe) and fuel oil showed increases, while precious metals (silver) and non - ferrous metals (nickel) showed significant declines [5]. Overseas Commodities - On February 4, 2026, overseas energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose, while NYMEX natural gas fell. Precious metals like COMEX gold and COMEX silver also rose [6]. 2. Sector Analysis Financial Sector - Stock index futures: The stock market closed down with shrinking trading volume, and the consumer sector strengthened seasonally. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase [10]. - Stock index options: The implied volatility showed a differentiated trend, indicating a range - bound game sentiment. The short - term outlook is range - bound [10]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the implementation of monetary policy, risk appetite, and government bond issuance [10]. Precious Metals Sector - Gold: Geopolitical tensions eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the US economic fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and geopolitical trends [10]. - Silver: The structural tightness in the spot market eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch are similar to those for gold [10]. Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Spot freight rates were under pressure, and shipping companies cut prices to attract cargo before the festival. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include spot market freight rate changes, geopolitical sentiment, and the risk of price wars among shipping companies [10]. Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: Cost support weakened, and the futures market was under pressure. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [10]. - Iron ore: Hot metal production increased slightly, and inventories continued to accumulate. The short - term outlook is range - bound, with factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather conditions, port ore inventories, and policy dynamics to be monitored [10]. - Coke: Profits recovered, supply increased, and the demand from hot metal production provided support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include steel mill production, coking costs, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. - Coking coal: Restocking was nearly completed, and the futures and spot markets were range - bound. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include coal mine resumption, Mongolian coal imports, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Nickel: There was a game between expected policies and weak reality, and nickel prices were range - bound. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [10]. - Tin: Market sentiment was weak, and tin prices continued to adjust. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [10]. - Copper: The US dollar index continued to rise, and copper prices were under short - term pressure. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish stance of the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [10]. - Aluminum: Inventories continued to accumulate, and aluminum prices declined. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [10]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: Supply pressure remained, and geopolitics dominated the rhythm. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [12]. - LPG: Chemical demand weakened, and attention should be paid to Iranian risks. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [12]. Agricultural Sector - Natural rubber: Short - term support was still effective. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [12]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures market had high elasticity, and attention should be paid to the lower - bound support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [12]. - Cotton: It was range - bound and lacked a unilateral trend before the festival. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include production and demand [12]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar exports still had potential, and the medium - to - long - term outlook was for a range - bound decline. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound decline, and factors to watch include Brazilian port logistics, lower - than - expected northern hemisphere production, and macroeconomic fluctuations [12].