1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market is expected to be mainly volatile as the holiday approaches. Different agricultural products have different trends, including weakening, fluctuating, and potential recovery [1]. - For example, the supply of live pigs is abundant, leading to a weakening of pig prices in the short - term, but the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Exports are weakening, and sentiment is cautious. Oils and fats are undergoing a corrective adjustment. - **Logic**: The 1 - month palm oil inventory in Malaysia is lower than expected, but the weak export performance from February 1 - 10 has put pressure on sentiment. For soybeans, the market anticipates an increase in South American soybean production in the USDA's February report, and the support from Sino - US agricultural trade is weakening. Regarding rapeseed oil, after the tariff reduction agreement between China and Canada in early January, the supply is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying hedges at low回调 levels [5]. 3.1.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Funds are reducing positions before the holiday, and the two types of meal are trading in a narrow range. - **Logic**: Internationally, China's purchase of US soybeans provides support, but the accelerated harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in Brazilian soybean production in the USDA's February report suppress the upward space of US soybean futures prices. Domestically, due to factors such as the exchange's margin increase and the Spring Festival holiday, pre - holiday funds are mainly for risk - avoidance, and the market is inactive. After the holiday, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [6]. 3.1.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Pre - holiday arrivals are decreasing, and prices are volatile. - **Logic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the trading activity is decreasing. After the holiday, there may be some selling pressure, but the remaining grain pressure is limited. The supply of feed grains is supplemented by policy - grain auctions and imported grains. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Pay attention to the trading and restocking rhythm of traders after the holiday [8][9]. 3.1.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Supply is abundant, and pig prices are weakening. - **Logic**: In the short - term, as the Spring Festival approaches, the number of slaughtered pigs is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until at least April 2026. In the long - term, the process of capacity reduction was hindered in January 2026. After the holiday, the demand will decrease significantly, and the supply is still excessive in the first quarter of 2026. It is expected that the pressure on live pig slaughter will weaken in the second half of 2026. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. Before the Spring Festival, there is a risk of selling pressure. After the holiday, the fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended that the industrial side pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Maintaining range - bound trading. - **Logic**: The rubber price is expected to continue range - bound trading before the holiday. Although the fundamentals are relatively weak, there is a possibility of an early rise due to expected factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand side has some support but no large - scale restocking. The obvious negative factor is the rapid inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The trading volume is limited, but the capital attention is increasing [11][12]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Mainly range - bound trading before the holiday. - **Logic**: The BR futures price first rose and then fell. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the trading of butadiene is not bad. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. - **Outlook**: Weakly bullish in the medium - term. Although the short - term rise is fast and needs adjustment, the mid - term trend is still bullish [13]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Lack of upward momentum before the holiday. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, textile factories are shutting down for holidays. Before the holiday, there is no obvious driving force, and the cotton price is expected to be range - bound. After the holiday, the traditional peak season will boost the cotton price. In the long - term, the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be in a tight balance, and the cotton price center is expected to rise. - **Outlook**: Weakly bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Brazil still has export potential, and sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - and long - term. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. Major producing countries are expected to increase production. Brazil's production is coming to an end, but its export potential is large. The production in the Northern Hemisphere is optimistic. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rebounds [16]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are almost stagnant, and futures are fluctuating independently. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and both the terminal and downstream are in a low - demand state. After the holiday, the seasonal recovery of demand will bring marginal benefits. The valuation of pulp futures is not high, and the downward space is limited. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is recommended to wait and see during the Spring Festival [17]. 3.1.10. Double - Glued Paper - **Viewpoint**: Trading is coming to an end, and double - glued paper is trading in a narrow range. - **Logic**: The double - glued paper market has entered a pre - holiday stagnant state. Paper mills' production is basically stable, and some production lines have maintenance plans. After the holiday, the consumption recovery rhythm depends on the resumption of work of downstream printing factories, and there may be more price - cutting phenomena. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [18][19]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Trading is light, and the market is range - bound. - **Logic**: Before the holiday, the log market is entering a shutdown stage, and trading is light. The spot price is relatively stable, and the market is range - bound. Although the fundamentals have improved marginally, there is still pressure from weak future demand and expected supply increase. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range of 770 - 830 yuan/cubic meter for the short - term 03 contract [21][22]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring The report only lists the names of varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.3. CITIC Futures Commodity Index (February 10, 2026) - **Composite Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04%. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 10, 2026, is 927.60, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day decline of 0.61%, a 1 - month decline of 1.66%, and a decline of 0.58% since the beginning of the year [182][183][184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. Energy products all rose, precious metals were mixed, agricultural and sideline products mostly increased, shipping futures declined, black commodities mostly fell, new energy materials mostly dropped, and chemical products were mixed [1][2]. - The US economy shows a weak - stable total volume with a differentiated structure. The manufacturing PMI in January was good, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened and employment data was below expectations [2]. - In China, the fundamental changes this week were limited. The boost from the incremental policies in Q4 2025 was not significant yet, but policy expectations were strengthening. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, with both supply and demand decreasing marginally [2]. - For assets, domestic equity markets can get upward support from policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities but limited odds. Gold in precious metals is a long - term standard allocation, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are still promising under industrial logic, and investors can buy on dips after market volatility reduces. Black commodities are generally volatile, and crude oil may rise due to geopolitical support but with high uncertainty, so it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Today's Market - Base metals led the gains, with Shanghai tin up 3.33%. Energy products all rose, with crude oil up 2.17%. Precious metals were mixed, with Shanghai silver up 1.97%. Agricultural and sideline products mostly increased, with corn up 0.44%. Shipping futures declined, with the container shipping index (European line) down 4.57%. Black commodities mostly fell, with coke down 1.71%. New energy materials mostly dropped, with industrial silicon down 1.53%. Chemical products were mixed, with styrene down 0.98%. Oils and fats mostly declined, with palm oil down 0.69%. Non - metallic building materials all fell, with PVC down 0.44% [2] 3.2 Overseas Macro - The US economy shows a weak - stable total volume and a differentiated structure. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was good, and the positive feedback from the looser liquidity since H2 2025 may have gradually affected the manufacturing industry. However, the non - manufacturing sector weakened and employment data was below expectations [2] 3.3 Domestic Macro - The fundamental changes this week were limited. The boost from the incremental policies in Q4 2025 to the fundamentals was not significant yet, but policy expectations were strengthening. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, with both supply and demand decreasing marginally. The expectation of policy support for a "good start" in Q1 is rising, and the policy intention to stabilize investment since Q4 2025 may continue into Q1 2026 [2] 3.4 Asset Views - Domestic equity markets can be supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities but limited odds. Gold in precious metals is a long - term standard allocation, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are promising under industrial logic, and investors can buy on dips after market volatility reduces. Black commodities are generally volatile, and crude oil may rise due to geopolitical support but with high uncertainty, so it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [2] 3.5 Market Conditions of Different Sectors - **Finance**: The market sentiment is warm. Stock index futures are expected to rebound following the external market, stock index options are volatile, treasury bond futures are volatile, and gold and silver are in a stage of price adjustment and are volatile [6] - **Shipping**: Before the Spring Festival, the decline in freight rates slowed down. The three major alliance shipping companies issued a price increase notice for the European line in March. The container shipping European line is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6] - **Black Building Materials**: The current situation and expectations are not good, and the market still faces pressure. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to be volatile [6] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous market has warmed up, but inventories have accumulated significantly. Base metals have stopped falling and are volatile. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals are expected to be volatile or volatile and slightly stronger [6] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The national thermal coal has generally reduced inventories, and the chemical industry continues to be volatile. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, and other products are all expected to be volatile [6][7] - **Agriculture**: As the Spring Festival approaches, most agricultural products are volatile. Grains, oils, livestock, and other products are expected to be volatile or volatile and slightly weaker [7] 3.6 Financial Market Price and Change Data - Stock index futures: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures had different price levels and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [10] - Treasury bond futures: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures had different price levels and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [10] - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index and the US dollar intermediate price had different price levels and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [10] - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield, 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread, and 10 - year break - even inflation rate had different price levels and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [10] 3.7 Industry Index Price and Change Data - The prices and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes of various industries in the CITIC Industry Index, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, commerce and retail, non - ferrous metals, etc., are provided [11][12] 3.8 Overseas Commodity Price and Change Data - The prices and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes of overseas commodities such as energy (NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent oil, etc.), precious metals (COMEX gold, COMEX silver), non - ferrous metals (LME copper, LME aluminum, etc.), and agricultural products (CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, etc.) are provided [13][15] 3.9 Domestic Commodity Price and Change Data - The prices and daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes of domestic commodities in various sectors such as shipping (container shipping European line), precious metals (gold, silver), non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum), black building materials (rebar, hot - rolled coil), energy and chemicals (crude oil, fuel oil), and agriculture (soybeans, corn) are provided [16][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The China - Southeast Asia shipping route is the world's largest trade corridor, showing resilience in trade tensions. The Southeast Asian container shipping market has strong growth momentum driven by economic growth and industrial transfer [8][33]. - In 2025, the North Asia - Southeast Asia route had the highest capacity share and the fastest growth rate among intra - Asia trades. However, future capacity growth may be constrained by the high average age and low orderbook of feeder vessels [26][34]. - Southeast Asian shipping routes generally have lower freight rate volatility than long - haul routes, with certain correlations to Northern Europe rates. New contracts listed by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange provide more options for hedging [2][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Situation of the Southeast Asia Container Shipping Market - The China - Southeast Asia route is the world's largest trade corridor. In 2025, the trade value between China and ASEAN reached 1,055.87 billion USD, up 7.3% year - on - year. Asian intra - regional routes are the world's largest container shipping market. From January to October 2025, the cargo volume in this regional market reached 41.234 million TEUs, accounting for 25.9% of the global total, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.1% [8]. - Due to short shipping distances, the China - Southeast Asia route is highly competitive, with carriers including global giants and regional specialists. Major routes include services from China to Singapore/Malaysia, Thailand/Vietnam, and Indonesia [11]. - Freight rates on Southeast Asian routes generally have lower volatility than long - haul routes, with seasonal patterns. Rates usually retreat from highs in January and February, rebound in early March, and are driven up in mid - April by the Songkran Festival. In 2025, due to tariff - driven front - running, rates surged prematurely between March and May, fell during the traditional peak period (June - August), hit a floor in the August - September off - season, and rebounded in October [12][13]. 3.2 Demand in Southeast Asian Shipping Market - The six major economies of ASEAN (Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam) have shown economic resilience, with a three - year compound GDP growth rate of 3% in 2024, surpassing the overall GDP growth rate of Asia by 0.3 percentage points [16]. - The trade war between China and the United States has led to a global supply chain restructuring, and Southeast Asia has become an important destination for industrial transfer. From January to November 2025, China's exports to five ASEAN countries reached 492.33 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. By October 2025, the container cargo volume in the Asian market reached 41.234 million TEUs, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.3% [20]. - Among the commodities transported by general cargo containers, Vietnam accounts for the highest proportion (31.5%) of China's exports to the five ASEAN countries. In 2025, the total value of China's exports of 33 categories of commodities to the five ASEAN countries reached US$202.48 billion [24]. 3.3 Southeast Asian market capacity and competition landscape - In 2025, the North Asia - Southeast Asia route had the highest capacity share (56.1%) and the fastest growth rate (19.1% year - on - year) among all intra - Asia trades. By the end of 2025, the total capacity deployed by carriers within the intra - Asia market reached 3.415 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [26]. - Regional carriers such as Wan Hai, SITC, and TS Lines maintain a strong presence in the intra - Asia market. They focus on strategic layouts within Southeast Asian feeder routes and offer differentiated services, serving as essential supplements to regional market coverage [30]. 3.4 Outlook - From a demand perspective, the Southeast Asian market shows diversified and high - growth characteristics in importing Chinese goods, driven by economic growth and industrial transfer dividends [33]. - Future capacity growth may be constrained by the high average age and low orderbook of feeder vessels. - Southeast Asian routes typically have lower freight rate volatility than long - haul routes, with a 75.8% correlation between rates from China to Singapore and Malaysia and Northern Europe rates, and a 51.7% correlation for Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. New contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 listed on February 10th provide more options for hedging [35].

重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 免责声明:除非另有说明、中信期货有限公司（以下简称"中信期货）拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经 授权,不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性 以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。本报告并不构成中信期货给予的任何私人咨询建议。 苯乙烯利润回升,海外多套装置重启 2026/02/10 投资咨询业务资格: 册 尹伊君 证监许可【2012】669号 究 从业资格号:F03107980 投资咨询号: Z0021451 员 最新数据: 国内苯乙烯开工略升。根据隆众,截至2026年2月5日,国内苯乙烯开工率69.96%,环比+0.68pct,同比- 6.67pct。周度产量35.09万吨,较上期增0.34万吨。本周华东一套苯乙烯装置重启产出但时间有限,华南提 负荷装置影响时间增加,周内无装置降负、停车,整体产出小幅增量。 近期海外多套装置重启,日本NSSM装置存检修计划。根 ...

Interpreting DCE Iron Ore Brand & Premium Changes | 徐 柯 Xu Ke | 从业资格号 Qualification No: F03123846 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0019914 | | --- | --- | | 桂晨曦 Gui ChenXi | 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 | 2026/02/09 Event 事件点评 Recently, DCE released an announcement with the following adjustments: 1. Removal of Yangdi Fines and Bengang Concentrate from the list of deliverable brands. . Adjustment of premiumdiscount levels: premium for Carajas Fines reduced from 15 yuantome to 5 yuantome ; premium/discount for IOC6 ...

供应端预期反复，新能源金属延续宽幅 震荡 新能源观点：供应端预期反复，新能源⾦属延续宽幅震荡 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继续延 后，供应扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅生产企业主动适应弱需求而 减产，工业硅和多晶硅供需略微改善。中短期来看，供应端预期反 复，新能源金属延续宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强， 尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求 预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价 格重心。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-10 ⼯业硅观点：⻓期过剩压⼒仍在，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格宽幅震荡。 碳酸锂观点：供需驱动不强，碳酸锂震荡运⾏。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-10 春节临近，板块品种多震荡 油脂：油脂窄幅震荡 蛋⽩粕：交投清淡，双粕盘⾯震荡 ⽟⽶：临近春节，购销清淡 ⽣猪：供应宽松，猪价偏弱 天然橡㬵：节前区间震荡为主 合成橡㬵：关注短期⽀撑⼒度 棉花：节前震荡为主 ⽩糖：巴西产糖已进⼊尾声，糖价中⻓期震荡偏弱 纸浆：期货弱势不改，现货年前难有起⾊ 双㬵纸：双㬵纸低位窄幅震荡 原⽊：上⾏驱动不⾜，原⽊⾛弱 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 原木观点：原木走弱 逻辑：综合来看，原木估值抬升带动价格底部上移，但供需偏宽松背 景下，短期利多出尽，上行动力或不足。中期来看，一月新西兰因天 气发运延迟，二月预计发运偏大，一季度中旬旺季过后或将再度累 库，无新增利多背景下或有转弱风险，预计维持区间运行为主。操作 上：短期03合约770-830元/方区间操作。 展望：震荡。短期市场无新增驱动，基本面宽松延续，原木维持区间 运行。 风险因素：地产需求、现货流动性、国际贸易关系、资金因素等。 农业团队 研究员： 王聪颖 从业资格号：F0254714 投资咨询号：Z ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-10 沃仕鹰派预期交易弱化，基本金属震荡 止跌 有⾊观点：沃仕鹰派预期交易弱化，基本⾦属震荡⽌跌 交易逻辑：据财联社消息，特朗普提名的下届美联储主席出乎市场预期， 投资者对沃仕印象解读为鹰派；不过，随着美国疲软的就业数据披露，沃 仕鹰派预期交易有所弱化，整体上看，宏观面预期有所改善。原料端延续 偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。终端偏弱，现实 供需偏宽松，但中期供需收紧预期仍在。整体来看，随着沃仕鹰派预期交 易弱化，中期美联储独立性风险和供应扰动担忧仍在，铜铝锡等品种有望 维持震荡偏强走势，短期基本金属有望震荡回升，考虑到春节长假临近， 铜铝锡短多交易为宜。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号F03141853 投资咨询号Z0022534 铜观点：库存延续⾼位，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：减产预期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-02-10 ⾼位震荡中修复，配置资⾦回补⽀撑价 格 贵⾦属在前期剧烈波动后出现修复性反弹，⻩⾦重返关键整数位附近，⽩ 银同步回升但弹性更⼤。短期交易逻辑由单边趋势转向⾼波动下的结构性 再平衡，配置与对冲资⾦回补对价格形成⽀撑，宏观与政策不确定性仍是 核⼼背景。 黄金观点：高位震荡中企稳修复，中期多头逻辑未被破坏。 逻辑：前期去杠杆与情绪踩踏结束后，黄金在关键价位附近获得配置 盘承接。官方需求延续，对价格波动的容忍度较高，压缩了下行空 间。海外方面，市场继续围绕美国就业与通胀数据交易，美联储政策 路径与独立性讨论反复，对实际利率与美元形成扰动，利好黄金的防 御与配置属性。 展望：在宏观数据未形成一致指向前，黄金更可能维持高位宽幅震 荡，回调阶段关注配置资金承接力度，中期仍受官方购金与美元信用 逻辑支撑。 展望：短期随黄金震荡偏强运行，但需警惕快速拉升后的技术性回 吐，中期仍取决于贵金属整体配置需求与宏观风险定价。 风险提示：特朗普政策变化；美联储货币政策变化；地缘冲突变化。 白银观点：波动显著放大，跟随黄金修复但节奏更快。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-10 股指期货：跟随外部市场反弹 股指期权：期权市场情绪偏暖 国债期货：债市多头情绪继续有所升温 股指期货方面，跟随外部市场反弹。周一权益市场高开之后高位震 荡，全A指数涨幅接近2%，通信、传媒、电子表现强势。A股反弹与上周五 全球风险资产情绪修复有关，伴随美国降息预期升温，以及比特币、贵金 属等资产止跌，对于流动性负向传导的担忧弱化。展望后市，节前快速反 弹的概率相对不大，有利因素在于美元指数见顶回落，而不利因素在于节 前整体参与度较低，在近期风险事件频发的背景下，资金偏好更倾向保 守，建议轻仓过节。进入节后，进入重要会议窗口期，现阶段市场倾向政 策看涨期权，节后预计温和上行但斜率较1月放缓。 市场情绪偏暖 股指期权方面，情绪偏暖。相较于前两周市场波动下的流动性升温， 昨日市场上涨后，期权交投量能相对平稳。结合期权情绪指标持仓量PCR 的整体走强，以及隐含波动率的回落，推测目前市场情绪偏暖。但考虑到 节假日和行权日的临近，期权端建议买权防御为主。需要说明的是，此时 建议买权对冲并不意味着看空，而是对整体持仓的系 ...