美联储如期降息，⻩⾦短线冲⾼回落 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-18 美联储9⽉如期降息25bp并上调增⻓、就业预期，仍释放更鸽派信号，凸 显决策层加⼤防范就业⻛险的政策倾向，市场对后续降息路径仍存不确 定，⻩⾦冲⾼回落。 重点资讯： 1) 美联储将利率下调25个基点，并暗示将在今年余下时间稳步降低 借贷成本，决策者们采取行动回应了对就业市场疲软的担忧，联储内 部广泛支持这一行动，包括特朗普总统任命的大多数理事。 2) 路透伦敦9月16日报导，俄罗斯石油管道运输公司(Transneft)已 警告生产商，他们可能不得不削减产量，此前乌克兰针对俄重要出口 港口和炼油厂发动无人机袭击。 3) 英国和美国已达成一项技术协议，加强在人工智能(AI)、量子计 算和民用核能领域的联系；以微软为首的顶级美国公司承诺向英国投 资310亿英镑（420亿美元）。 价格逻辑： 美联储9月如期降息25bp至4.00%-4.25%，为去年12月以来首次降息， 仅新任理事Miran主张降息50bp成唯一异议，或降温市场对于美联储 独立性担忧。点阵图显示年内再降息50bp的中值预 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-18 股市温和上⾏，债市曲线⾛平 股指期货：温和上⾏ 股指期权：情绪再次⾛强 国债期货：债市曲线⾛平 股指期货方面，温和上行。昨日早盘盘面虽有波折，但全天呈现温和 上扬走势，其中创业板、科创50、中证1000相对强势，成长较价值占优， 微盘走势偏弱，上涨个股与下跌个股数量相近。短期趋势无忧，市场更在 意结构配置情况。从本轮资金流的状态来看，增量资金主要依托于三类资 金，其一是杠杆资金，融资余额规模持续新高，其二是中长期机构资金， 近期大型科技股以及港股互联网股频繁异动显现出资金加仓及布局的趋 势，其三是量化类资金，CTA以及指增类产品均对股票市场趋势形成正向 支撑作用。故从配置上，双创以及小微盘可能是共性方向，继续关注IM多 单配置。 股指期权方面，情绪再次走强。昨日标的市场全线上涨，双创及中小 盘继续领衔，期权市场成交额129.39亿元，相比前一交易日回升25.89%， 前一日提到买权主导的行情有所延续，且从成交结构来看，认购期权占比 有所回升，情绪再次走强。其他情绪指标方面，持仓量PCR在普涨行情中 维持平稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For global major assets, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. Domestically, the risk preference is increasing as the process of household deposit transfer is ongoing. It is recommended to focus more on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets. Specific attention should be paid to CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds and precious metals. Additionally, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased to some extent, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be observed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomy - **Overseas Macro**: In the US, retail and import prices in August exceeded expectations, while the real estate market in September was sluggish. The Fed's interest - rate meeting on the early morning of September 18th is a key event. After the lower - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the August inflation data provides another reason for the Fed to cut interest rates. The intensifying personnel turmoil among Fed governors also boosts the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: It is necessary to observe the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting infrastructure demand to some extent. However, there is a risk that more special bonds may be used for debt resolution rather than physical work. The implementation rhythm of the 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments is uncertain, which may postpone the demand pulse of commodity physical consumption to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [7]. 3.2 Asset Views - **General Recommendation**: In major assets, more attention should be paid to liquidity - sensitive risk assets. Specific attention should be given to CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [7]. 3.3 Viewpoint Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence, and the market is expected to be volatile with the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the market is expected to be volatile with the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the market is expected to be volatile with risks such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence drive the price up, and the market is expected to rise with fluctuations, depending on the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.3.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is no upward momentum due to loading pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, and the decline rate of freight rates in September should be monitored [8]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: There are rumors of production restrictions, and the upward trend of the market has slowed down. The market is expected to be volatile, and factors such as the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production should be monitored [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port transactions have increased, and the price is fluctuating. The market is expected to be volatile, and factors such as changes in port inventory, policy dynamics should be observed [8]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has been implemented, and market expectations have improved. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on steel production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Downstream replenishment has started, and spot transactions have improved. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The expectation of "anti - involution" is rising, and the cost side provides support. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The expectation of "anti - involution" is rising, and attention should be paid to steel procurement pricing. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Macro - sentiment has improved, and spot prices have started to rise. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Downstream replenishment before the festival has led to a slight rebound in spot prices. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on soda ash inventory [8]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper ore supply, and the copper price is expected to rise with fluctuations, depending on supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's stance, and domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and inventory is accumulating. The price is under pressure and expected to be volatile, depending on ore production resumption, electrolytic aluminum production recovery, and sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the price is expected to rise with fluctuations, depending on supply disturbances and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has banned illegal mining, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, depending on macro - and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the market has risen significantly. The price is expected to be volatile, depending on Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the price is at a high level and expected to be volatile, depending on the resumption of production and demand improvement expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, suppressing the upward space of the price. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on supply reduction and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile, depending on demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply - demand imbalance is obvious, and the market is expected to decline with fluctuations, depending on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Valuation repair has been realized, and attention should be paid to the cost side. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Option positions are concentrated at 3500, and the price rebounds following crude oil. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on sanctions and supply disturbances [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitics, it rebounds weakly following crude oil. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates following crude oil. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: The contradiction between near - and far - term contracts is large, and the market is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: It returns to the fundamental level and is under downward pressure, waiting for new positive factors. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on export implementation and market sentiment [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is pessimistic about future production capacity expansion. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device implementation [10]. - **PX**: The fundamental driving force is limited, and the price follows the cost. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and demand during peak seasons [10]. - **PTA**: The willingness to hold goods is low, and spot liquidity is abundant, suppressing the basis. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and peak - season demand [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw material support is general, and processing fees have recovered. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The off - season of demand is deepening, which restricts the market. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [10]. - **Propylene**: The reduction in propane and PL commodity volume has boosted the price, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and the market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support, and the market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: The reality is weak, but expectations are strong. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and the market is cautiously bearish. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.3.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has weakened, and prices may continue to adjust. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices are dragging down the market, and the futures price is testing the lower - bound support. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade relations [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: There has been continuous rainfall recently, and attention should be paid to grain quality. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Hogs**: The policy of reducing weight and limiting production continues, and the near - term contracts are under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: It is adjusting downward following the overall commodity market. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has returned to a weak trend. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is fluctuating slightly, and attention should be paid to purchase prices. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is fluctuating slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on imports [10]. - **Pulp**: Market sentiment is stable, and the price is in a range - bound fluctuation. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - economic changes and overseas quotes [10]. - **Offset Paper**: There is limited upward momentum, and the price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [10]. - **Logs**: Processing demand has slightly recovered, and spot prices may rise. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on shipments and dispatches [10].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is hovering near the historical high of $3,700 per ounce due to the expectation of the Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut and the decline of US Treasury yields [1][3] - The first interest - rate cut is about to happen, and attention should be paid to the guidance on the subsequent path from the quarterly end interest - rate meeting. There can be a moderate optimism about the subsequent interest - rate cut space at the beginning of the interest - rate cut cycle [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Key Information - The US and China have reached a framework agreement on TikTok's ownership transfer to US control, to be confirmed in a call between US President Trump and Chinese leaders on Friday [2] - The Trump administration is taking actions to weaken China's global port network and place more strategic docks under Western control [2] - The central bank and the General Administration of Customs have optimized the "non - one - batch - one - certificate" policy for gold imports, expanding applicable customs from 10 to 15, extending the license validity period to 9 months and allowing multiple declarations within the validity period, which is beneficial to the gold trade [2] - Chinese leaders proposed a global governance initiative at the "SCO+" meeting, aiming to promote the multipolarization of the international monetary system and improve the global financial governance system [2] b) Price Logic - In the European session on Tuesday, gold hovered near the historical high of $3,700 per ounce. Market bets on the Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut continued to suppress the US dollar, driving up non - yielding assets. The market focus is on the Fed's policy meeting this week [3] - US economic data in August showed that retail sales and industrial output both exceeded expectations, causing short - term pressure on gold and silver. Meanwhile, the unexpected decline of Canada's CPI strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the probability of a rate cut this week in the swap market rose to 93% [3] c) Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities includes special indices (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index, PPI Commodity Index) with corresponding increases of +0.62%, +0.79%, +0.67%, and +0.39% respectively on September 16, 2025 [44] - The precious metals index on September 16, 2025, had a daily increase of +1.15%, a 5 - day increase of +1.69%, a 1 - month increase of +9.09%, and a year - to - date increase of +33.31% [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the ratings include "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., based on the "Investment Rating Standard Explanation" [264]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EU is considering increasing sanctions on Russia, and the chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. International crude oil futures have risen for three consecutive days. The EU's consideration of sanctioning oil companies importing Russian crude has raised concerns about supply - side disruptions. OPEC+ representatives will discuss production capacity this week, which may affect future production increases. Macro - level positive sentiment has provided some support for oil prices [2]. - The chemical market currently lacks a clear mainline. China's weak retail sales data has led to expectations of consumption - stimulating policies. Chemical products have generally risen following the rebound of crude oil and coal, but the rebound is hesitant, and the basis of many varieties has weakened. During the refinery maintenance season, there are not many unexpected over - maintenance situations, and the reduction in chemical supply is insufficient to support a large - scale rebound [3]. - Overall, the short - term boost from macro - sentiment on chemical product prices is temporary, and the overall situation remains one of oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks. The market is affected by factors such as API data on US inventories, the situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and OPEC+ production policies. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, with geopolitical factors as the main risk [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: Option positions are concentrated at 3500. The asphalt futures price rebounds following crude oil. However, the high - level valuation of asphalt has contradictions in inventory and production scheduling, and the price is expected to oscillate [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, fuel oil weakly rebounds following crude oil. The three main drivers of high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates following crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain low - valuation fluctuations [4][11]. - **Methanol**: There are still contradictions between the near - term and far - term markets, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The price is affected by factors such as regional market prices, device maintenance, and port inventories [4][22]. - **Urea**: With the overall rebound of the chemical industry, urea's growth is under pressure and is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [4][23]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The expectation of a loose supply - demand situation in the long - term suppresses price elasticity, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [4][17]. - **PX**: The fundamental outlook is poor, and the processing fee is further compressed. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support level around 6600 [4][12]. - **PTA**: Polyester demand is average, and the spot market has sufficient supply, putting pressure on the basis. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support around 4600 [4][12]. - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates with costs, and demand is average. The price is expected to oscillate and sort out in the short term [4][19]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is limited driving force, and it passively follows the market. The price is expected to oscillate, with the absolute value following raw materials [4][20]. - **PP**: Slight increase in maintenance and support from the coal end lead to oscillations. The price is affected by factors such as device maintenance, cost support, and supply - demand relationships [4][25]. - **Propylene**: PDH maintenance still provides support, and it oscillates in the short term [4]. - **Plastic**: Slight increase in maintenance leads to oscillations. The price is affected by factors such as oil prices, technical support, downstream demand, and supply - side pressure [4][24]. - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by benzene - ethylene devices and macro - disturbances, pure benzene rises intraday. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, waiting for new drivers [4][14]. - **Benzene - Ethylene**: Affected by macro and device disturbances, benzene - ethylene rebounds. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space due to inventory pressure [4][15]. - **PVC**: With a weak current situation and strong expectations, PVC oscillates. The price is affected by macro - policies, cost changes, and supply - demand relationships [4][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is under pressure to decline, and the futures market is cautiously weak. The price is affected by factors such as downstream demand, device maintenance, and cost [4][28]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in these spreads [30]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented, along with their changes [31]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The report shows the inter - variety spread data for combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., and their changes [33].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-17 股市盘⾯韧性⾜，债市情绪回暖 股指期货：盘⾯具有韧性 股指期权：短期博弈扰动，中期备兑应对 国债期货：债市情绪回暖 股指期货方面，盘面具有韧性。昨日盘面一度出现波折，但伴随午后 反攻，主要宽基指数均收红，行业方面，计算机、纺服、汽车等领涨，银 行、保险资金撤离，市值因子表现更为显著，全天呈现小市值占优大市值 偏弱的特征，同时量能维持在2.3万亿，近日有量缩特征。国庆之前维持 积极配置的看法，同时风格配置偏向成长领域。尽管8月金融数据表现不 一，但呈现出两个特征，其一，居民存款搬家正在提速，居民存款流入非 银存款，其二，M1M2剪刀差上行，隐含化债之后企业资金活化加速，对应 于信用环境改善，其三，消费、通胀暂难提升，这一方面催生政策提速预 期，另一方面强化资金流入科技领域。短线情绪偏强且具有韧性，继续配 置IM多单。 股指期权方面，短期博弈扰动，中期备兑应对。昨日期权市场成交额 102.78亿元，相比前一交易日回升15.46%，推测买权博弈占主导，原因有 二：其一是当前品种间分化相对大，市场博弈点较多；其二是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating upward", with individual variety ratings as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [8] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [9] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating upward [12] - Glass: Oscillating [13] - Soda ash: Oscillating [16] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [17] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [18] Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has strengthened again, providing an upward driver for the sector. Combined with the replenishment logic, strong macro - expectations, and the approach of the National Day with enterprises starting pre - holiday stockpiling, it is expected that the sector will oscillate upward before the holiday. However, attention should be paid to the dynamics of China - US talks and the possible negative impact of overseas countries imposing additional tariffs on China [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - Policy - level mention of "anti - involution", along with production restrictions in Tangshan's coking and steel enterprises and coal over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia, has boosted market sentiment. Steel, coking coal, glass, and soda ash have shown strong performance, while iron ore has been relatively weak. In the later stage, although the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, it is expected to push up the sector's prices further considering the macro - level benefits during the peak season and the industry's replenishment [2]. Situation of Each Variety Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy. The environmental protection - related production restrictions in Tangshan may have a limited impact on the overall demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. Port trading volume increased, overseas mine shipments returned to normal, 45 - port arrivals decreased, demand was supported in the short term, and the overall inventory level was neutral [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the trend of finished products. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply decreased, demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The second - round price cut has been implemented. The futures market is strong, and the spot market sentiment has improved. The supply is basically stable, and the demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Coking coal: The supply is temporarily stable, and the demand for pre - holiday replenishment from downstream coking enterprises has been released. The price is expected to oscillate upward in the short term due to the strong "anti - involution" atmosphere, limited coal production growth, and macro - policy benefits [12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the price, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move downward [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: The short - term cost supports the price, and the decline space during the peak season is limited. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand relationship will loosen, and the price center will move downward [3][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if it returns to fundamental trading, the price is expected to decline [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the long - term price center will move downward to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. Steel - The spot market trading volume is average, and the inventory is accumulating, but the rate has slowed down. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Although the cost support has weakened, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the warming macro - environment still support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [7]. Indexes - On September 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special indexes (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and the steel industry chain index all showed an upward trend [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for various agricultural products, including "Oscillating" for oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, live pigs, synthetic rubber, and sugar; "Oscillating Strongly" for natural rubber and cotton; "Oscillating Weakly" for corn/starch in the short term; and specific trading ranges and outlooks for double-offset paper and logs [5][6][8][10][11][13][14][16][19][21]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural products, influenced by factors such as weather, supply and demand, policies, and international trade. For example, the decline in the good - rate of US soybeans affects the oil and protein meal markets; the new grain listing rhythm impacts the corn market; and the "anti - involution" policy affects the live pig market [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The good - rate of US soybeans continues to decline, and oils and fats continued to oscillate strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Affected by seasonal harvest pressure and demand concerns, US soybeans and soybean oil fluctuated. The macro - environment focuses on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, and the dollar weakened on Monday. Crude oil prices oscillated strongly due to concerns about Russian oil supply interruptions. In the industrial sector, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has expanded, and the good - rate has dropped to 63%. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak. The production of Malaysian palm oil in September may be at a high level, and the probability of inventory accumulation is large. The demand for palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil continues to decline slowly, but it is still high year - on - year. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of the recent strengthening of oils and fats. The probability of a continued increase in oil prices in the medium term is high [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot market drags down the futures price, which tests the lower - edge support. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and a US interest - rate cut is almost certain. The September supply - demand report adjusted the US soybean area and yield. The good - rate of US soybeans is in line with expectations, and the export inspection is better than expected. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans needs attention. Domestically, in the short term, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises also rises slightly. In the long term, the purchase of soybeans in October is nearly completed, and the purchase in November is advancing. - **Outlook**: The macro - expectation is positive, the yield of US soybeans may still decline, and the sowing progress in South America is uncertain. The protein meal futures price continues to oscillate in the range, and it is recommended to hold long orders and take corresponding hedging measures [5]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The arrival volume of trucks is at a high level, and the futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply side is affected by the active grain sales in the trading link, and the inventory of each link is declining. The demand side is affected by the inventory situation of feed enterprises. In the short term, there is pressure from the new grain listing, and in the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the condition of tight carry - over inventory. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The spot market pressure persists, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the planned slaughter volume of farms in September increases, and the supply of pigs is abundant in the short, medium, and long terms. The "anti - involution" policy may gradually reduce the supply pressure in 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of pork to pig slightly increases, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens decreases. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to oscillate. The futures market shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It runs strongly and returns to the 16,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: After the 09 contract is delisted, the 01 contract is still strong, and it is also driven by the overall strengthening of commodities. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive drivers. The supply side needs to pay attention to the output and inventory reduction rate, and the demand side needs to observe the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises. - **Outlook**: The macro - sentiment is good, and the short - term fundamentals are also supportive. The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10][11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It runs in a range. - **Logic**: The BR futures price oscillates horizontally. It follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of raw material butadiene. In the medium - term, the expectation of many device overhauls from September to November and the low price reduce the bearish sentiment, but there is no continuous upward - driving force. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price is expected to rise slightly in the short term, and the futures price may oscillate strongly [12][13]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price fluctuates slightly, and pay attention to the dynamic of the purchase price. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazil and India are expected to increase production, while the US is expected to reduce production, but the global cotton production may not decrease significantly. Domestically, the commercial inventory is low, the downstream demand improves, and the opening price of new cotton is expected to be higher than last year. The Fed may cut interest rates in September, which may boost commodity prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it oscillates in the range of 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price oscillates slightly. - **Logic**: In the long term, the global sugar market supply is expected to be loose in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward pressure. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import also increases. However, the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound. - **Outlook**: In the long term, the sugar price has a downward - driving force and is expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, it runs in the range of 5,500 - 5,750 yuan [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment is temporarily stable, and the pulp enters a range - fluctuation market. - **Logic**: The pulp futures price rebounds after hitting a new low. The stabilization is mainly due to the non - excessive weakness of the double - offset paper futures after listing and the relief of the pressure of warehouse - receipt trading after the 09 contract delivery. The demand in the spot market is average. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has a weakened effect, and the resumption of production by Chenming brings additional supply. Although it is the seasonal peak season, the demand improvement is limited. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The expected fluctuation range is 4,950 - 5,300 yuan [17][18]. 3.1.10 Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The commodity sentiment rebounds, and the double - offset paper oscillates strongly. - **Logic**: The double - offset paper futures price rebounds with the commodity sentiment. In the short term, the fundamentals change little, the publisher's tender has not started, and there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The spot price is at a neutral level, and there is no clear upward or downward driver. - **Outlook**: It is difficult to go up or down unilaterally. Consider operating in the range of 4,000 - 4,500 yuan [19][20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The processing demand recovers slightly, and the spot price may have an upward - adjustment expectation. - **Logic**: The inventory of logs rebounds slightly, and the market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September improves, but it is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase in September - October, and the port is in the inventory - reduction stage. - **Outlook**: The log price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September [21]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, live pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [23][41][54][66][113][124][139][164]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "Strongly", "Oscillating Strongly", "Oscillating", "Oscillating Weakly", "Weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and the calculation method of standard deviation [178].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货涨跌互现，黑色系普遍上涨 ——中信期货晨报20250917 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 221/221/221 181/181/181 基 础 色 辅 助 色 228/210/172 0/0/0 210/10/16 87/87/87 227/82/4 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: 【中信期货航运】美西、欧洲计划运力高位回落,至美国发运量维持低位 -- 数据报告20250916 - Research Team: Industrial and Cyclical Group - Research Analysts: An Jierui, Wu Xilu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The planned shipping capacities for the US West Coast and Europe are declining from their peak levels, while the shipping volume to the United States remains low [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Shipping Capacity - In the 39th week (from September 21st to September 28th), the planned shipping capacity on the US West Coast route dropped to 340,000 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4%. The shipping capacity on the US East Coast route was 217,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 31% [4] - The shipping capacity on the China - Southeast Asia route is operating at a high level, with a year - on - year positive growth of 37% but a narrowing increase, and a month - on - month decline of 12.5% with an expanding decline [4] - In the 39th week, the shipping capacity on the China - North Europe route decreased month - on - month, dropping to 325,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%. The shipping capacity on the Mediterranean route increased by 46.7% year - on - year and decreased by 8% month - on - month [4] Shipping Volume of Containerized Cargo to the United States - As of September 15th, the shipping volume of containerized cargo from China to the United States reached 444,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8%, and the number of ships was 54, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8% [4] - The shipping volume of containerized cargo from Vietnam to the United States rebounded last week, reaching 130,000 TEU, a week - on - week increase of 44% [4] Port Arrival Volume in the United States - In the 37th week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the United States was 531,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 189,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 24.6%, and that from Vietnam was 68,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9% [5] - This week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the United States was 486,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 170,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.5%, and that from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 9.9% [5] Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of September 14th, the container throughput of domestic ports increased by 0.1% week - on - week and 13.5% year - on - year, reaching 6652,000 TEU [5] Vizion Booking Data - From August 18th to August 25th, the total bookings in the United States were 336,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 5.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The bookings from China to the United States were 122,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30% [5] - In the first three weeks of August, the average weekly total booking volume in the United States was 355,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.1% compared to July. The average weekly booking volume of imports from China to the United States was 124,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6% compared to July [5]