1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical influence on coking coal and coke has subsided, and the warehouse receipt pressure has suppressed the performance of the coking coal and coke market. Although the short - term replenishment demand shows signs of weakening, the downstream rigid demand still exists, and the supply - demand contradiction in the short - term market is relatively limited. The 05 contract is mainly under pressure, while the 09 contract may rebound after falling to a low level [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Weakening of the Coking Coal and Coke Market - Geopolitical conflicts show signs of easing, and the support of the energy substitution logic weakens. The U.S. President is willing to end the military action against Iran, causing the crude oil price to fall, and the coking coal and coke market also weakens following the energy substitution expectation [1] - The coking coal main contract is approaching delivery, and the warehouse receipt pressure makes the market continue to be under pressure. The trading logic has shifted from energy substitution expectation to warehouse receipt delivery pressure, and the 05 contract faces more obvious delivery pressure than the 01 contract, dragging down the far - month contracts [2] Market Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, the short - term replenishment demand shows signs of weakening, but the steel mill profits are acceptable, and the iron - making production is expected to continue to increase. The downstream rigid demand for coking coal and coke still exists. Although imports remain at a high level, the increase in domestic coal mine production may not exceed expectations under policy regulation. The upstream inventory of coking coal and coke is relatively low year - on - year, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [2] - The 05 contract is mainly under pressure due to warehouse receipt pressure, but due to the remaining geopolitical fluctuations, there is still support below the market. The 09 contract is less affected by delivery, and there is still a possibility of rebound after the price drops to a low level following the 05 contract [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply uncertainty of lithium carbonate persists, and its price volatility has intensified. The current supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains in a tight - balance state. Short - term price volatility may increase due to factors such as the unclear duration of the Zimbabwean export ban, the progress of mine复产 in Jiangxi, uncertain improvement in new energy vehicle terminals, and macro - constraints. In the medium - to - long - term, the price center still has support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1][2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The main contract of lithium carbonate had an amplitude of over 8% today, and the price dropped significantly to around 160,000 yuan per ton. The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is in a tight - balance state, but supply - related events are frequent, and the news continuously affects the market. There are repeated expectations about whether the Zimbabwean ore export ban will continue. If the export resumes, the supply fluctuations will be marginally reduced, which may suppress market sentiment and prices. The supply - demand changes of rough ore need to be dynamically evaluated and tracked [2] Fundamental Situation - **Supply side**: Domestic production lines have quickly recovered, and production has continued to increase. The import of strong ore and lithium carbonate in the first quarter also maintained good growth, enhancing the overall supply capacity. However, resource fluctuations are frequent. The Zimbabwean ore export ban has lasted for nearly a month, and the recovery time is unclear. If the export restriction continues, the expectation of tight overseas ore supply will be strengthened, and domestic rough ore imports from May to June and later may be affected, supporting prices. If the export resumes in the short term, the impact may be mainly concentrated in May - June, and long - term concerns about supply fluctuations will be marginally alleviated, which may impact market sentiment. Additionally, the progress of mine复产 in Jiangxi still needs verification, and supply - side uncertainties remain [3] - **Demand side**: In March and April, the production schedules of cathodes and batteries remained high, supporting the demand for lithium carbonate. In terms of melting, the performance of energy storage is still optimistic. After a short - term weakening, new energy vehicles have an expected marginal improvement in the peak season, but the overall performance still needs further verification [3] - **Inventory**: The previous inventory continued to decline and recently increased slightly, but the overall level is still relatively low. In the context of frequent supply fluctuations, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate still maintains a tight - balance pattern [3] Summary and Strategy - From March to April, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate maintained a tight - balance. Due to factors such as the unclear duration of the Zimbabwean export ban, the progress of mine复产 in Jiangxi, uncertain improvement in new energy vehicle terminals, and macro - constraints, short - term price volatility may increase. The driving factors need to be observed. As long as the tight - balance of supply - demand is not broken, the medium - to - long - term price center still has support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In terms of strategy, while paying attention to buying opportunities during price corrections, risk control should be strengthened. Downstream enterprises can purchase at low prices or conduct appropriate hedging to control inventory and price risk exposures [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 31, the main PVC contract dropped 5.39% to close at 5,353 yuan/ton. The weak performance was due to two reasons: the profit recovery boosted the开工 willingness of calcium carbide - based PVC enterprises and the load of ethylene - based enterprises also increased, resulting in the supply reduction of PVC falling short of expectations; the US released a signal of geopolitical easing, cooling the commodity market sentiment and causing PVC to give back the geopolitical premium [1]. - In the short - term, PVC production stopped falling and stabilized, with the load of domestic ethylene - based enterprises increasing and the marginal calcium carbide - based enterprises starting up more. In the medium - term, the stability of raw material supply for ethylene - based enterprises should be noted. Overseas, chlor - alkali plants in Japan, South Korea, Western Europe, and South Asia have cut production due to raw material supply disruptions [2]. - PVC downstream start - up improved month - on - month, but the enthusiasm for chasing price increases was poor. Domestic export orders remained normal as foreign buyers made rigid purchases. [2] - The price of calcium carbide rebounded moderately, and the dynamic comprehensive cost of calcium carbide - based PVC changed relatively little. The price of ethylene was strong, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased. The supply and demand of calcium carbide both increased, and the rising rate of calcium carbide may slow down. Due to the supply disruption of crude oil and naphtha and the reduction of overseas cracking load, ethylene remained strong [2]. - Looking forward, the PVC market is under pressure due to the uncertain geopolitical expectations and the domestic PVC production cut falling short of expectations. If the geopolitical situation is not substantially alleviated, there is still a risk of production cuts for PVC at home and abroad, and domestic exports will still be favorable, giving the market the momentum to rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Short - term: PVC production stopped falling and stabilized. The load of domestic ethylene - based enterprises increased, and the marginal calcium carbide - based enterprises started up more [2]. - Medium - term: Pay attention to the stability of raw material supply for ethylene - based enterprises. If raw material procurement is difficult, ethylene - based enterprises may still cut production [2]. - Overseas: Chlor - alkali plants in Japan, South Korea, Western Europe, and South Asia have cut production due to raw material supply disruptions [2]. Demand - PVC downstream start - up improved month - on - month, but the enthusiasm for chasing price increases was poor. Overseas and domestic prices soared, foreign buyers made rigid purchases, and domestic export orders remained normal [2]. Valuation - Calcium carbide price rebounded moderately, and the dynamic comprehensive cost of calcium carbide - based PVC changed relatively little. Ethylene price was strong, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased. The supply and demand of calcium carbide both increased, and the rising rate of calcium carbide may slow down. Due to the supply disruption of crude oil and naphtha and the reduction of overseas cracking load, ethylene remained strong [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polysilicon prices rose notably today due to policy expectations. Consecutive signals from the NDRC and the State Administration for Market Regulation have reinforced policy expectations around curbing excessive competition, supporting the rebound in polysilicon prices [4][5] - In the short term, polysilicon prices are likely to fluctuate around the cost range. In the medium term, attention should focus on policy direction and the progress of supply - side clearing. Over the medium to long term, polysilicon prices are expected to remain in a wide trading range. Downstream players may consider moderate restocking on price dips, while investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [8][10] Summary According to Relevant Contents Event Review - On March 14, the NDRC stated in the 2026 Economic and Social Development Plan draft that it would curb disorderly competition in sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and promote price stabilization and recovery in products including polysilicon, wafers, and lithium carbonate. On March 30, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti - Unfair Competition Law to curb "involution - style" competition in key industries such as photovoltaics [4][5] Market Outlook Supply - Most polysilicon producers remain in a state of production cuts under high inventory pressure. Although some producers show willingness to resume output, overall polysilicon production is expected to stay at a low level in April [7][9] Demand - Affected by weak end - user demand and seasonal softness at the beginning of the year, wafer production and operating rates declined in January - February. In March, wafer output was temporarily supported by a "rush to export" window, but as this window closes, production schedules in April are unlikely to see a meaningful increase. Post - holiday domestic demand recovery remains limited, and downstream demand overall remains subdued [7][9] Inventory - Polysilicon stockpiles are still elevated. While upstream producers have attempted to ease supply pressure through production cuts and controls, inventory accumulation has not yet been effectively digested, and further time is needed for destocking and supply - side clearing [7][9] Price and Strategy - Polysilicon prices have fallen significantly in the earlier stage and are now at a relatively low valuation level. In the short term, prices will fluctuate around the cost range. In the medium term, the supply - demand balance may improve marginally if production cuts continue. Over the medium to long term, prices are expected to remain in a wide trading range. Downstream players may consider moderate restocking on price dips, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [8][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk remains high, causing platinum and palladium to fluctuate. The short - term market risk preference is low, and investors are advised to be cautious. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for the valuation of platinum, but the current geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran still significantly affects market expectations and platinum prices. Palladium follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector, with short - term supply disturbances and long - term supply - demand loosening [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price**: On March 30, 2026, the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 2.66% to 497.5 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: The US released positive signals of suspending strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and negotiating with Iran, but Trump's remarks increased uncertainty. Short - term geopolitical risk remains high, market volatility is large, and risk preference is low. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is pessimistic. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is conducive to platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still affects the market [2] - **Outlook**: The high energy prices push up the US inflation expectation and postpone the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate [2] Palladium - **Price**: On March 30, 2026, the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 0.61% to 357.30 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. On the demand side, there is structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, and it mainly follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector [3] - **Outlook**: The spot tightness has eased recently, and with macro - level suppression, it is expected that the palladium price will fluctuate [3] Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2535.43, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index is 2829.64, up 1.01%; the industrial products index is 2584.88, up 1.10% [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 30, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2615.59, with a daily increase of 0.50%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.29%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.62% [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices in early April did not meet the announced increase, mainly remaining the same or slightly declining. The Houthi attacks on Israel may expand the conflict to the Red Sea, but the impact on the actual operation routes of European lines is limited. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. After Iran established a safety corridor, the passage through the strait has rebounded slightly recently, and the geopolitical premium may be partially reversed. - The outlook is weak and volatile. The online freight rates of Jiyu are expected to be weak and volatile. The SCFIS European line is expected to reach a recent high next week and then decline. The establishment of Iran's passage mechanism may lead to a partial reversal of the geopolitical premium [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Logic - According to the latest special report, the spot prices in early April did not meet the announced increase, mainly remaining the same or slightly declining. The Houthi attacks on Israel may expand the conflict to the Red Sea, with limited impact on European lines. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. After Iran established a safety corridor, the passage through the strait has rebounded slightly recently, and the geopolitical premium may be partially reversed [1][6]. 3.2 Spot Market Freight Rates - MSK's online freight rate for the AE1 route in the second week of April was $2350/FEU, up $50 from the opening. HPL SPOT's low - end price for the AE2/NE1 route in early April was adjusted down to $2147/FEU, a decrease of $200 from the previous week. Other voyages remained at $3035/FEU, and the online price in the second half of April was also adjusted down to $3035/FEU. The price in May remained at $3535/FEU. - OOCL's price in the first week of April remained at $2781 - 2881/FEU, up $50 - $100 from the end of March. In the second week of April, the high - end online price decreased, and the freight rates above $3000/FEU dropped to $2787 - 2880/FEU. EMC's freight rate remained unchanged, with a special - offer voyage CES on April 1 at $2650/FEU and other voyages in April at $3060/FEU. CMA CGM's online freight rate in early April was $2725/FEU. - MSC's online freight rate in early April remained at $2852/FEU. ONE's online freight rate at the beginning of April dropped to $2561/FEU, basically the same as at the end of March, and was at $3061/FEU from the second half of April to May [2]. 3.3 Passage Through the Strait - On March 29, there were 8 passages through the strait, including 1 dry - bulk carrier operated by Jia Xiang Da Shipping Co Ltd, a shipping company from Hong Kong, China. - On March 27, the VLCC freight rate from the Middle East to China was updated to $10.78/barrel, a 2% decrease from the previous period, and the VLCC freight rate from West Africa to China was updated to $8.26/barrel, a 1.4% decrease. - Iranian officials plan to implement an access and toll system for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, establishing a new strait management system similar to Turkey's management of the Bosphorus Strait and Egypt's management of the Suez Canal [3][6]. 3.4 Futures Contract Data | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Settlement Price (Points) | Price Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Long Position (Lots) | Short Position (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2604 | 1719.7 | 1757.1 | 1.0408 | 8177 | 7029 | 4577 | 5171 | | EC2605 | 2005.6 | 2049 | - 0.3478 | 1460 | 2027 | | | | EC2606 | 2532.3 | 2567.2 | 7.7886 | 26147 | 17711 | | | | EC2607 | 2625 | 2670 | 4.3198 | 635 | 1231 | | | | EC2608 | 2539 | 2545.6 | 6.958 | 1308 | 2808 | | | | EC2609 | 1753.7 | 1778.9 | 3.1467 | 111 | 541 | | | | EC2610 | 1834.2 | 1656.5 | 4.3399 | 3462 | 7135 | | | | EC2612 | 1834.2 | 1840.7 | 5.1648 | 214 | 471 | | | [9] 3.5 Spot Freight Rate Data | | SCFI | SCFIS | | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index (Points) | 1826.8 | | | Northern European Route ($/TEU) | 1703 | 1752.54 (+3.5%) | | Mediterranean Route ($/TEU) | 2764 | | | US West Route ($/FEU) | 2352 | 1263.40(+23.4%) | | US East Route ($/FEU) | 3264 | | [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is in a stage of oscillatory repair after a rapid correction. The driving force has shifted from single - factor risk - aversion to a dual - game of "geopolitical support + re - inflation constraint". Gold has underlying support, while silver shows higher volatility [1]. - Gold is in an oscillatory repair stage under high - volatility conditions. Geopolitical uncertainties provide support, but high oil prices and a strong US dollar limit its upward potential. The market is unlikely to return to a unilateral loose - trading stage in the short term and is more likely to maintain an oscillatory repair pattern [2]. - Silver follows the repair trend of precious metals but has significantly higher volatility than gold. It is more easily affected by market sentiment and industrial product pricing in the short term. Its price may show alternating repair and retracement characteristics [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Overview - The Middle East situation is still in a stage of high - level fluctuations, with negotiation signals and military pressure coexisting. The geopolitical risk premium has not significantly declined. Oil prices remain high, suppressing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and the US dollar is generally strong [1]. Gold - **Viewpoint**: Gold is in an oscillatory repair stage under high - volatility conditions. Geopolitical uncertainties provide support, while high oil prices and a strong US dollar limit its upward potential [2]. - **Logic**: The Middle East situation still has risks in military deployment, energy transportation security, and regional spill - over, making it difficult for the market to fully unwind the geopolitical premium. High oil prices increase concerns about inflation stickiness and the Fed's delayed interest - rate cuts, constraining gold's upward momentum. After a rapid decline, the repair of gold prices indicates that allocation demand still exists, but the market has not returned to a unilateral loose - trading stage [2]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation, oil - price transmission, and changes in the Fed's policy expectations. If geopolitical risks continue to escalate, gold still has allocation value; if negotiation expectations rise and high oil prices continue to suppress the interest - rate cut space, the upward slope of gold may be limited [2]. Silver - **Viewpoint**: Silver follows the repair trend but has higher volatility than gold and is more easily affected by market sentiment and industrial product pricing in the short term [2][3]. - **Logic**: Silver benefits from the overall stabilization and repair of precious metals and has higher price elasticity when gold stops falling. The increase in energy prices has begun to be transmitted to the industrial product chain, supporting silver's sentiment. However, due to its dual financial and industrial attributes, silver's price fluctuates more in a strong - dollar and risk - asset - pressured environment, showing alternating repair and retracement [3]. - **Outlook**: If gold continues to repair and industrial product sentiment remains strong, silver has room for a supplementary increase; if the US dollar remains strong or the market shifts back to liquidity - contraction trading, silver's volatility may further increase [3]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: Not detailed in the content. - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2535.43, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index is 2829.64, up 1.01%; the industrial products index is 2584.88, up 1.10% [43]. - **Plate Index**: The precious metals index on March 30, 2026, is 3769.72, with a daily increase of 1.46%, a 5 - day increase of 2.88%, a 1 - month decrease of 18.56%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.43% [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market showed resilience throughout the day, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market increased. For stock index futures, A - shares are more resistant to decline than some Asian - Pacific markets, with potential reasons including lower energy dependence and weaker linkage with the US stock market. It's advisable to buy on dips but not over - estimate the upside, and better opportunities may come after the situation becomes clear in April [1][5]. - For stock index options, the market turnover of each variety is rising, the option sentiment indicator (PCR) is falling, and the implied volatility is strong. It is recommended to continue holding call options for defense [2][5]. - For treasury bond futures, the main contracts rose, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined. The market is trading the expectation of the 30Y treasury bond active - period coupon - cutting. The central bank's large - scale net liquidity injection supports the short - end of the bond market, and the "US - Iran conflict" boosts risk - aversion sentiment. The long - end of the bond market may be volatile, with only cautious long - making opportunities. Strategies such as ultra - long - end reverse arbitrage and 30Y - 10Y spread convergence are recommended [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the market opened lower and then recovered. The All - A index rose slightly, and the trading volume was slightly over 1.9 trillion. Military, metal, and textile sectors led the gains. The expectation of US - Iran peace talks was the catalyst for market stabilization [1][5]. - **Reasons for Resistance**: China's lower energy dependence than Japan and South Korea may lead to the transfer of Asia - Pacific funds to A - shares. Also, the linkage between A - shares and the US stock market is weaker than that of Japanese and South Korean stocks, making the callback of A - shares more controllable [1][5]. - **Disadvantages**: The trading volume is still low, the market shows a dumbbell - shaped leading pattern (defensive style), and the high oil price indicates that the market has not priced in the rapid geopolitical easing [1][5]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: A - shares have certain anti - decline properties. It is advisable to buy on dips, but the upside should not be over - estimated. A better time to increase positions may come after the situation is clear in April. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips and increase the position of IM to a medium level [1][5]. (2) Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The trading volume of each option variety is rising, the option sentiment indicator (PCR) is falling, and the daily implied volatility is strong, indicating a strong hedging atmosphere. The current option market is trading on volatility rather than just direction [2][5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Continue to hold call options for defense to protect the overall portfolio from systematic risks [2][5]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined. The market started to trade the expectation of the 30Y treasury bond active - period coupon - cutting, with the 25T6 of 30Y treasury bonds performing weakly [2][6]. - **Supporting Factors**: The central bank's large - scale net liquidity injection supports the short - end of the bond market. The "US - Iran conflict" has increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the bond market has become less sensitive to high oil prices. When the 30Y treasury bond interest rate rises to around 2.3%, the buying power of banks and other institutional investors has increased, supporting the long - end [2][6]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: In the short term, the long - end of the bond market may be volatile, with only cautious long - making opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to ultra - long - end reverse arbitrage strategies and 30Y - 10Y spread convergence strategies. The trend strategy is to maintain a volatile view, the hedging strategy is to pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, the basis strategy is to look for ultra - long - end reverse arbitrage opportunities, and the curve strategy is to focus on 30Y - 10Y spread convergence opportunities [2][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On March 30, equity index futures were mixed, while most commodities rose, with SCFIS(Europe) leading the raise. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.3%, and IF dropped 0.3%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), Lithium Carbonate, and Benzene, while the top three decliners were Sodium Hydroxide, Synthetic Rubber, and Silicon Metal [9][10][11]. - Crude oil prices are expected to move in a range-bound but strong trend due to supply reductions and rising uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical situation. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to operate in a range-bound manner as the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively sound. Aluminum prices are expected to remain range - bound with a bullish tilt in the short term and may see an upward shift in the medium - term price center [20][29][37]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 30, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities rose. SCFIS(Europe) led the increase. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.3%, and IF dropped 0.3%. In commodity futures, SCFIS(Europe) rose 6.3% with a 38.4% month - on - month increase in open interest, Lithium Carbonate gained 4.5% with a 4.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest, and Benzene advanced 4.3% with a 1.1% month - on - month increase in open interest. The top three decliners were Sodium Hydroxide, Synthetic Rubber, and Silicon Metal [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 30, the main contract of Crude Oil rose 3.1% to 763.5 yuan/barrel (INE). The Middle East geopolitical situation has led to supply reductions and rising uncertainty over its duration. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have caused sustained supply cuts from Gulf countries. Russia's shipments increased in March but still face security challenges. The market currently faces a supply shortfall, and consumer inventories are expected to decline in April [16][20][21]. 1.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - On March 30, the main Lithium Carbonate futures contract rose 4.5% to 171620 yuan/ton (GFEX). Supply is strong overall, but there are concerns due to disruptions such as Zimbabwe's ore export ban and diesel supply issues in Australia. Demand for cathode and battery production is high from March to April, and the decline in new energy vehicle sales and production is expected to narrow. Inventories have slightly accumulated recently, and the supply - demand balance is tight [25][29][31]. 1.2.3 Aluminum - On March 30, the main Aluminum futures contract rose 3.4% to 24725 yuan/ton (SHFE). Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and geopolitical conflicts increase supply concerns. In the medium term, supply growth is limited, and demand is resilient. The price is expected to remain range - bound with a bullish tilt [35][37]. 2. Important News 2.1 Macro News - China plans to build an underwater high - speed railway beneath the Yangtze River with a total investment exceeding 500 billion yuan, which is estimated to drive upstream and downstream industries to generate nearly 1.5 trillion yuan in added value [42]. - Trump wants to "seize" Iran's oil and does not rule out occupying Kharg Island. He also said Iran has agreed to "most of" the 15 - point ceasefire plan [42][43]. - The Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman said U.S. proposals are "highly unreasonable". An Iranian official plans to introduce an access and toll system for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran confirmed that the IRGC Navy Commander was killed in an airstrike [42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive expectations of biodiesel support the strengthening of edible oils. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating upwards. Considering the high uncertainty in the Middle East situation, high - running crude oil prices, and the expected increase in biodiesel demand, it is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [1][6]. - For protein meal, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the market will continue to oscillate. The market for soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be affected by the Middle East situation and industrial factors, showing an oscillating trend [7]. - The sentiment in the corn market is loosening, and both futures and spot prices are falling. In the short - term, the price will face callbacks, and in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating range [9]. - The supply of live pigs remains high, and the pig price is still weak. In the short - term, the price will run weakly; in the medium - term, the downward cycle continues; in the long - term, the pig price is expected to gradually bottom out and warm up in the third quarter [10]. - The sentiment in the natural rubber market is warm, and the market will maintain an oscillating trend. The price is mainly driven by the macro - logic, and there are some positive factors on the supply side [11][13]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market has cooled slightly, and it maintains a high - level oscillation. The tight supply of butadiene supports the market, and it is still likely to rise [14]. - The cotton price is running strongly. In the medium - and long - term, both the domestic and international cotton markets are bullish, and in the short - term, the 05 contract will oscillate strongly [15][16]. - The sugar price is oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern is still loose, waiting for the new - season harvest in Brazil. In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the medium - and long - term, there may be an upward driving force [17][18]. - The pulp market is in a stalemate and maintains an oscillating trend. The price is restricted by the weak supply - demand of softwood pulp but supported by costs [20][21]. - The double - offset paper market is weakly oscillating. In the short - term, the spot price drags down the market, and in the medium - term, the publishing tender will support the price [22][23]. - The log inventory is decreasing, and the market is strongly oscillating. The high cost and low inventory support the market, but there is a risk of high - level oscillation [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The positive expectations of biodiesel support the strengthening of edible oils [1][6]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks exist, and oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Indonesia will continue the biodiesel B50 plan, and Malaysia's palm oil production decreased and exports increased in March. The US EPA released renewable fuel obligation targets, increasing the production and consumption of biodiesel. Domestic soybean oil inventory decreased due to refinery maintenance, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased weekly, with expected increased supply [1][6][8]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate upwards. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [1][6]. 3.1.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the market will continue to oscillate [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market expects an increase in US soybean planting area, and the Middle East situation affects oil prices. The renewable fuel obligation targets are in line with expectations, and there are both positive and negative factors for US soybeans. Domestically, oil mills are actively hedging, and the market expects a decrease in soybean crushing volume. Feed enterprises' demand is weak [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7]. 3.1.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment is loosening, and both futures and spot prices are falling [9]. - **Logic**: Upstream, the warming temperature leads to an increase in the grain - selling rhythm. Downstream, the demand from the feed and deep - processing sectors is stable and recovering. The supply - demand pattern is gradually easing, and there is competition from substitute grains [9]. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate. In the short - term, there is a risk of callbacks, and in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating range [9]. 3.1.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply remains high, and the pig price is still weak [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the出栏 pressure continues. In the long - term, the production capacity reduction process is not smooth, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and warm up in the third quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. In the fourth quarter, the price is expected to rise moderately [10]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the market is warm [11]. - **Logic**: The market risk preference is improving, and the price is mainly driven by the macro - logic. There are some positive factors on the supply side, and the downstream inventory is relatively optimistic. There is a need for price adjustment seasonally [13]. - **Outlook**: The market will maintain an oscillating trend [13]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment has cooled slightly, and it maintains a high - level oscillation [14]. - **Logic**: The tight supply of butadiene supports the market. Although the upward momentum has cooled, the supply shortage situation remains, and it is still likely to rise [14]. - **Outlook**: The market will follow the sector sentiment. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short - term [14][15]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price is running strongly [15]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the supply of cotton in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing, and the demand is stable. The overall fundamentals are positive [16]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate strongly. In the medium - and long - term, it is bullish, and it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices after callbacks [16][17]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern is still loose, waiting for the new - season harvest in Brazil [17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the price will oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices. In the medium - and long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect Brazil's production and tighten the global sugar supply [18]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. In the short - term, the price range is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. In the medium - and long - term, there may be an upward driving force [18]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is in a stalemate and maintains an oscillating trend [20]. - **Logic**: The consumption of hardwood pulp is strong, and that of softwood pulp is weak. The demand will decrease seasonally, and the supply pressure is high. However, the cost provides support [21]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. The price is restricted by the supply - demand but supported by costs [21][22]. 3.1.10. Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market is weakly oscillating [22]. - **Logic**: The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The publishing tender in April and May will support the price, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [23]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and the price will run in the range of 4000 - 4300 yuan/ton [23]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is decreasing, and the market is strongly oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The port inventory is low, and the supply is affected by geopolitical factors, resulting in high costs and low supply. The demand has some resilience, but there is a risk of high - level oscillation [24]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate strongly. The price is supported by the cost but faces hedging pressure [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 No specific data information is provided in the given content for detailed summary. 3.3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are provided. The commodity 20 index increased by 1.01% to 2829.64, the industrial products index increased by 1.10% to 2584.88, and the agricultural products index increased by 0.04% on March 30, 2026, with a 5 - day decline of 0.42%, a 1 - month increase of 0.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.12% [185][187].