Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is in the process of switching from the off - season to the peak season. In March, the price increase was realized in advance, and April will still focus on stable loading. The probability of the emergency fuel surcharge of leading shipping companies being implemented in China this week is low, and shipping companies may still issue price increase letters or peak - season surcharges in April to support prices. The far - month contracts maintain a high premium, mainly due to the short - term emotional impact brought by the Houthi issue. The market is waiting for the realization of optimistic expectations, such as the impact of Middle - East transshipment, supply - chain disruptions, and fuel prices on supply and demand. In the short term, with a high premium, the market may show wide - range fluctuations, and there is a risk of increased volatility. It is recommended to participate with caution. The outlook is for a volatile market, with changes in the Strait of Hormuz and escort arrangements being the main risks [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Freight Rates and Contract Volume - Price - Last weekend, the freight rates on the European route showed a slight increase. Trump gave Iran a 48 - hour ultimatum. In the morning, some freight rates on the Evergreen line dropped to $2435/FEU. In the afternoon, the 04 contract quickly rose to 2190 points, and contracts such as 05 hit the daily limit during the session, then the overall market continued to decline. At the close, the 04 contract closed at 1957.4 points, up 3%, with a decrease of 74 in open interest; the closing price growth rates of contracts 05, 06, and 07 exceeded 10%, and the closing price increases of contracts 09 and later exceeded 6%. After the market, SCFIS increased by 8.8% to 1693.26 points, corresponding to the shipping prices from March 16 - 22 [2]. - According to Geek Rate data at 17:00, in the spot market, for GEMINI, MSK's online freight rate in the first week of April is $2630/FEU; HPL - SPOT's price at the end of March remained at $2535/FEU, with a low - price of $2035 taken off the line, and the single - voyage quote at the beginning of April remained at $2735/FEU, and other voyages were in the range of $3035 - 3535/FEU. For OCEAN, EMC's CES quote at the beginning of April is $2650/FEU, about $480 lower than at the end of March ($3130 - 3230/FEU), and the same as last weekend; other April voyage quotes are $3360/FEU. OOCL maintained $2737 - 2846/FEU at the end of March and opened at $3187 - 3284/FEU in April. For PA&MSC, ONE's quote remained at $2755/FEU at the end of March and $3761/FEU in April; MSC's online showed one CONDOR quote at the beginning of April of $2852/FEU, basically the same as at the end of March ($2840/FEU) [2]. Futures Contract Data | Contract | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Long - Position | Short - Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2604 | 1957.4 | 2007.2 | 5.6199 | 36453 | 17696 | 10817 | 11998 | | EC2605 | 2378.8 | 2354.1 | 10.8481 | 2459 | 1814 | | | | EC2606 | 2692.9 | 2597.8 | 10.3568 | 17737 | 14312 | | | | EC2607 | 2783 | 2755.6 | 11.1422 | 618 | 992 | | | | EC2608 | 2564 | 2557.7 | 9.4718 | 1998 | 2945 | | | | EC2609 | 1835.4 | 1824.7 | 6.3137 | 142 | 502 | | | | EC2610 | 1815 | 1651.5 | 6.9417 | 4102 | 7517 | | | | EC2612 | 1815 | 1812.1 | 6.4376 | 125 | 438 | | | [9] Spot Freight Rate Data | | SCFI | SCFIS | | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index (points) | 1707 | | | Northern Europe Route ($/TEU) | 1636 | 1693.26 (+8.8%) | | Mediterranean Route ($/TEU) | 2784 | | | West Coast of the United States Route ($/FEU) | 2054 | 1024.11 (-7.7%) | | East Coast of the United States Route ($/FEU) | 2922 | | [10] Geopolitical and Strait Passage Information - Geopolitically, the US - led naval alliance warned that the new threat from the Houthi to shipping in the Strait of Mandeb may pose an "increased risk" to maritime traffic. On March 22, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces stated that they would join the Middle - East war on Iran's side. The Houthi also claimed to have a hypersonic ballistic missile called "Palestine - 2". Houthi leader Abdul Malik al - Houthi said his forces were ready to act. Iran has provided the Houthi armed forces with anti - ship ballistic missiles, including the Asif missile with a range of 400 kilometers, the "Tufan" ground - to - ground ballistic missile with a range of up to 1800 kilometers, the Kuz series of cruise missiles with a range of more than 1300 kilometers, and the Samad series of attack drones with a range of up to 2500 kilometers [3]. - In terms of strait passage, on March 20, the freight rate from the Middle - East to China was $12.01/barrel, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%, and the freight rate from West Africa to China rebounded by 4.1% to $7.56/barrel. According to ShipVoy, the daily passage volume of the Strait of Hormuz was updated to 2 outbound voyages today [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The situation of the Iran geopolitical conflict remains unclear, and it is recommended to remain cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The remarks of Trump may help reduce the probability of the tail - risk of further deterioration of the situation, but cannot substantially relieve the Strait blockade. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and it has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. [1] - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The stock index, non - ferrous and precious metal sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk preference. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation is further strengthened, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overseas Macro - The impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on the financial market continues, and major asset prices fluctuate significantly. Trump's 48 - hour ultimatum is still in effect, but he said that the negotiation with Iran is "progressing very smoothly", which may help reduce the probability of the tail - risk of further deterioration of the situation. Crude oil prices significantly corrected on the evening of March 23, and major asset prices rebounded. [1] 3.2 Domestic Macro - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target of the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. It also focuses on rectifying involution - style competition, advancing carbon peak work, and improving the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and the high seasonality of domestic port container throughput and the CRB index confirms the resilience of external demand. [1] 3.3 Asset Views - Be cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The stock index, non - ferrous and precious metal sectors may be dragged down by the deterioration of market risk preference. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation is strengthened, and the global stock market is weak, which may suppress risk assets. [1] 3.4 Market Performance 3.4.1 Financial Market - On March 23, 2026, stock index futures generally declined, with the CSI 300 futures down 3.94%, the SSE 50 futures down 3.83%, the CSI 500 futures down 5.16%, and the CSI 1000 futures down 5.87%. Treasury bond futures mostly declined, with the 2 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.03%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.06%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.09%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.03%. The US dollar index rose 0.33%. [7] 3.4.2 Industry Index - On March 23, 2026, most industries in the CITIC industry index declined. Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, and non - ferrous metals had relatively large declines, while the coal industry rose 0.35%. [8][9] 3.4.3 Overseas Commodities - As of March 20, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 2.66%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.61%, COMEX gold fell 2.47%, and COMEX silver fell 4.78%. [10][11] 3.4.4 Domestic Commodities - On March 23, 2026, shipping's container shipping to Europe line rose 7.61%, precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium generally declined, non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc had different trends, and black building materials such as steel, iron ore, and coke generally rose. Energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and methanol also had significant increases. [12][13] 3.5 Short - term Judgment of Each Sector - **Financial**: Stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate. [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver may have a corrective rebound after a short - term over - decline and are expected to fluctuate. [4] - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe line is expected to fluctuate weakly. [4] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to fluctuate. [4] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: Most basic metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate, and some varieties such as nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate strongly. [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to continue to fluctuate due to the unclear Middle - East geopolitical situation. [5] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are affected by geopolitical conflicts and have large fluctuations, with different trends for different varieties. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy substitution logic of coal has become the focus of recent market trading. Under the high crude oil prices due to continuous geopolitical conflicts, coking coal and coke prices are strong. The continuous US - Iran conflict and tight spot liquidity of some varieties support the spot and futures prices of iron ore. The impact of the Australian hurricane is limited, but the rising energy valuation continues to support alloy prices. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the peak - season expectations are still cautious, so the upward driving force for steel prices is limited. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron - ore supply - side disturbances [1] - Overall, the peak - season expectations are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world situation remains to be verified. There are still uncertainties in domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, prices will be strongly supported; if they ease, prices may face downward pressure [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The continuous US - Iran conflict and tight spot liquidity of some varieties support the spot and futures prices of iron ore. The supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to oscillate. Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals recovered. Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuates. Steel mill profitability increased month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to recover further. Port inventories decreased slightly, and steel - mill imported - ore inventories increased [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, scrap - steel arrivals are generally stable, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak balance, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap - steel supply is generally stable, short - process steel - mill demand has recovered rapidly, but long - process steel - mill demand has recovered slowly. Steel - mill inventories are still at a low level [11] Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both coke supply and demand are increasing, and the iron - water复产 speed may be faster. The spot cost is rising, and the expectation of a spot price increase is strong. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. After the lifting of production restrictions, both supply and demand of coke have recovered. With the rising energy valuation due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost is rising, and the willingness to raise spot prices has emerged again [12] - **Coking Coal**: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will remain the focus of coking - coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but if the geopolitical conflicts ease and trading returns to fundamentals, there will be downward pressure on the futures prices. Domestic coal - mine supply has room for a slight increase, and Mongolian coal imports remain high. After the lifting of production restrictions, coke production has increased, and upstream coal - mine inventories have decreased slightly [13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese - ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, in the medium - to - long - term, there is still a risk of a correction in the valuation level of the futures market above the cost due to the loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transfer. The impact of the Australian hurricane is limited. The cost of manganese ore is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to pick up with the start of the peak season. However, the supply may increase, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products in the current geopolitical environment is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still a risk of a correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the cost [19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventories will always suppress prices. The spot price is low, and glass manufacturers are suffering large - scale losses. Downstream demand has not recovered, and middle and downstream restocking has led to a reduction in upstream inventories. Energy - price increases have pushed up the expected cost of far - month contracts [14] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is currently stable at a high level, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted. The daily production decreased month - on - month. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has not changed much. The industry is still at the bottom of the cycle [16] Steel - Spot trading is performing well. After the weakening of environmental - protection production restrictions, iron - water production has rebounded rapidly, and electric - furnace production has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly led by building materials. Infrastructure investment growth at the beginning of the year is good, downstream resumption of work is progressing well, and rigid and restocking demands are slowly being released. Steel inventories have started to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals [9] Commodity Index - On March 23, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2531.78, up 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2810.80, down 0.34%; the industrial products index was 2583.01, up 1.73%. The steel - industry chain index on March 23, 2026, had a daily increase of 2.25%, a 5 - day increase of 2.11%, a 1 - month increase of 7.03%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.86% [104][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amidst the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, multiple agricultural and related commodity varieties are experiencing significant fluctuations. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1]. - Different commodities show different trends: some are trending strongly, some are oscillating, and some are weakening. For example, synthetic rubber is trending strongly, while pork prices are hitting new lows [1][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats are trending strongly due to rising crude oil prices. The overall inventory of edible oils in China has decreased, with different trends in the inventory of each type of oil. In the future, attention should be paid to the risks of crude oil decline and the expected difference in biodiesel policies [5]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical issues in the Middle East have led to a rise in crude oil prices, which in turn boosts the trend of oils and fats. Although the inventory of domestic oils has decreased, the demand is relatively weak, and each type of oil has its own supply - demand characteristics [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at low levels [5]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The long - short forces are stalemated, and the two types of protein meal are oscillating [5]. - **Logic**: Internationally, factors such as the expected postponement of the US President's visit to China and the high - level oscillation of crude oil prices affect the price of US soybeans. Domestically, the expected relaxation of regulations on Brazilian soybeans and the traditional shutdown season have an impact on the supply and demand of protein meal [6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. Rapeseed meal may be weaker than soybean meal [6]. Corn - **Viewpoint**: With low inventory and continued replenishment, corn futures are strengthening again [6]. - **Logic**: The supply of corn shows a differentiated trend, with an increase in the supply of wet corn in North China and a rise in port prices. The demand from the feed and deep - processing sectors is improving, and the inventory of grain - using enterprises has stopped decreasing and started to increase. The impact of substitute products such as wheat still needs to be observed [9]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term, but attention should be paid to the possible callback pressure caused by factors such as the increase in wet corn supply and the release of substitute products [9]. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: With a loose supply - demand relationship, pig prices have hit new lows [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply of pigs has increased, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the pressure of pig slaughter remains high. In the long - term, the reduction of sow inventory is not smooth, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and recover in the third quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to hedging opportunities by short - selling at high levels. In the fourth quarter, the price may rise moderately [10]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Macro - sentiment has a dominant influence, and attention should be paid to the support at low levels [11]. - **Logic**: After a sharp decline, the rubber price has stabilized. With the start of the harvest season in Yunnan and the impact on tire orders to the Middle East, the price is under downward pressure. The support from synthetic rubber needs to be continuously observed [13]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to oscillate due to limited fundamental variables [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The synthetic rubber market has hit the daily limit twice this month [14]. - **Logic**: The continuous escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a rise in crude oil prices, and the trading logic has shifted to the shortage of butadiene. The supply of butadiene has decreased, and there may be a shortage of spot goods in the future. As long as the geopolitical situation remains tense, the price is likely to rise [15]. - **Outlook**: The market will mainly follow the sector sentiment. If crude oil prices continue to rise, the market will remain strong in the short - term [15]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: There is support at the bottom and pressure at the top [15]. - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the cotton processing and inspection are basically completed, and the inventory is starting to decrease. The export data of textile and clothing is good, and the demand in March is strong. However, the announcement of the sliding - scale tariff quota and the negative macro - expectations have led to an oscillating correction of the domestic market [15]. - **Outlook**: Cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels during the correction [15]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, domestic and international sugar prices oscillate following the oil price. In the long - term, there is a hidden upward - driving force in the surplus pattern [16]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the sugar price is affected by the oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle East conflict. Although the global sugar market is in a surplus situation, high oil prices may affect the production in Brazil's new harvest season and tighten the global sugar supply [16]. - **Outlook**: The sugar price is expected to oscillate, and the short - term price reference range is 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [16]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp market maintains an independent trend and continues to oscillate within a range [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price of pulp fluctuates due to the game between long and short forces. The consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. The demand in the future will decline seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp inventory is high. However, the cost provides support at low levels [18]. - **Outlook**: The pulp price is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 4950 - 5050 yuan/ton and pressure at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton [18]. Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - offset paper market is strengthening with the rebound of commodities [19]. - **Logic**: The supply of double - offset paper has increased, and the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream printers is mainly for rigid needs, and the market is moving slowly. However, in the short - and medium - term, the traditional demand season and the paper enterprises' desire to repair profits may lead to a short - term price increase [20]. - **Outlook**: The double - offset paper market is expected to oscillate. In the short - term, it may first rise and then fall, and in the long - term, it will oscillate within the range of 3800 - 4300 yuan/ton [20]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The price of logs is strengthening due to increased costs [22]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in international oil prices, which has raised the shipping cost from New Zealand to China. New Zealand suppliers have reduced production and raised prices, resulting in a supply - demand mismatch. However, the actual demand recovery is slow, and there may be short - term high - level oscillation risks [22]. - **Outlook**: Logs are expected to oscillate strongly, with strong support at the bottom and obvious hedging pressure at the top [22]. Commodity Index - On March 23, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2531.78, up 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2810.80, down 0.34%; the industrial product index was 2583.01, up 1.73%. The agricultural product index on March 23, 2026, was 965.09, with a daily decline of 0.10%, a decline of 0.91% in the past 5 days, an increase of 3.20% in the past month, and an increase of 3.43% since the beginning of the year [182][184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and base metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate. The improvement in supply and demand is expected to support prices. The information released by Trump about the easing of the military conflict between the US and Iran has triggered short - covering, which helps to improve short - term panic. In the medium term, supply - side disturbance risks still support prices, and actual demand and supply - demand are expected to continue to improve. Base metals are expected to show a fluctuating trend [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: Macro uncertainties increase, and copper prices fluctuate widely. The copper price is affected by high inventory in the short term, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index may lead to a fluctuating performance. In the medium term, it is expected to be in a fluctuating state [6]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 67.2 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7 US dollars/dry ton [6]. - **Main Logic**: With the fermentation of the Middle East conflict, energy prices fluctuate sharply, increasing market concerns about macro uncertainties. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level and still falling, and the supply of scrap copper is also tight. The supply - side contraction expectation of refined copper is further strengthened. On the demand side, as the peak demand season approaches, the inventory of refined copper has started to decline, and the supply - demand of copper has improved marginally [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: Supported by the ore policy expectation in Guinea, the alumina price remains strong. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2772.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 406,877 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,274 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment has magnified the fluctuations in the market. The Middle East geopolitical issue remains unresolved, and risk assets are generally under pressure. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of alumina fluctuates little, the balance between upstream and downstream has improved significantly but is still slightly in surplus, the warehouse receipt level is constantly increasing, and the spot quotation has risen slightly. The Middle East issue has continuously disturbed the electrolytic aluminum production, putting pressure on the demand for alumina, but the increase in freight and auxiliary material prices also brings the expectation of cost support. Recently, there have been new disturbances at the ore end, intensifying market concerns about resource stability, and the market price has run strongly in the short term [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Macro sentiment fluctuates, and aluminum prices fluctuate. In the short term, it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. In the medium term, the supply - demand is expected to tighten, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to rise [8][9]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,502 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 612 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 145 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton; the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1356,000 tons, with no month - on - month change; the inventory of aluminum rods in the main domestic consumption areas was 353,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons; the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 403,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 198 tons [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US economic data continues to show structural differentiation, and there is strong uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical conflict. On the supply side, the domestic built - in production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit remains high; the Middle East geopolitical conflict increases the disturbance of overseas aluminum supply, and Indonesia is restricted by electricity and other factors, so there are still constraints on the medium - term supply increase. On the demand side, the weekly initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand still exists, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum remains low. The subsequent demand performance and inventory changes need to be concerned [8][9]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The market follows the aluminum ingot, and the price fluctuates. In the short and medium term, it is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [10]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the price of ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,502 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 612 yuan/ton [10]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the aluminum ingot, the quotation remains high, and the tight supply situation is difficult to change in the short term, with strong cost support. On the supply side, the operating rate continues to be low, and the tax refund policy and tax transfer may still restrict the supply in the medium term. On the demand side, the policy of replacing old cars with new ones continues to be implemented, but the subsidy intensity has declined. In the short term, high prices suppress downstream demand, and it is still mainly based on rigid - demand replenishment at low prices. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: The support of low TC is emerging, and zinc prices fluctuate. In the short term, it may stabilize in a fluctuating manner. Overall, it shows a fluctuating trend [11][12]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 5 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was - 20 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was - 30 yuan/ton; as of March 23, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 219,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons [11]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomically, against the background of the continuous military conflict between the US and Iran and the sharp rise in oil prices, in the short term, investors' concerns about economic slowdown have increased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has faded again, with a pessimistic macro sentiment. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the refinery profit has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The export of previously locked - price zinc ingots has ended one after another, and the supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new orders at the terminal are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. Overall, the short - term supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is still an expectation of inventory reduction during the consumption peak season, and zinc prices may stabilize in a fluctuating manner in the short term [11][12]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: The cost support is stable, and lead prices fluctuate [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25 yuan/ton), the price difference between primary and recycled lead was 0 yuan/ton (no change); the price of 1 lead ingot was 16,200 - 16,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,250 yuan/ton, no month - on - month change; the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets on March 16, 2026 was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 58,024 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150 tons [11][13]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has widened, the price difference between primary and recycled lead ingots has remained stable, and the futures warehouse receipt has decreased. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, the lead price has remained stable, the loss of recycled lead smelting has narrowed slightly, smelters have resumed production one after another, and the weekly output of lead ingots has increased. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more wait - and - see, and the orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: The market fluctuates, and attention should be paid to changes on the supply side. It is expected to show a fluctuating and strong trend, and the follow - up progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [15][16]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57,632 tons, a month - on - month increase of 942 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 282,792 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons; on March 23, the market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,080 - 1,110 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), the same as on the 20th; on March 16, GEM stated in an interactive platform that in February 2026, an accident occurred in the temporary slag storage area of its Qingmeibang Park in Indonesia due to a landslide caused by heavy rain. The company has completed the rectification as required, and there is no issue of license revocation. This rectification only involves part of the HPAL production capacity of Qingmeibang, which has little impact on the overall operation of the company. The company is accelerating the completion and acceptance of the permanent slag storage, aiming to fully release the production capacity in the shortest time [15]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel output decreased month - on - month in February, and the output of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia also decreased to a certain extent month - on - month in February. The overall supply - side pressure of nickel has slightly decreased, but the overall visible inventory still remains at a high level. The subsequent realization of peak - season demand needs to be focused on. In terms of policy disturbances, according to the news from Mysteel, Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of the nickel balance. The follow - up changes in Indonesia's policy need to be continuously tracked [15][16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: The nickel iron price remains stable, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. It is expected to show a fluctuating and strong trend, and the follow - up progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [17]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 41,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 827 tons; in the spot market, on March 23, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 to the stainless - steel main contract was 315 yuan/ton; on March 23, the market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,080 - 1,110 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), the same as on the 20th [17]. - **Main Logic**: The nickel iron price is strong, and the chromium end is stable. There is still a certain cost support for stainless steel. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decline significantly month - on - month, but in March, the production schedule is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand still maintains a relatively cautious attitude. The subsequent realization of the peak season needs to be focused on. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [17]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: The macro sentiment is weak, and tin prices fluctuate. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating operation [18][19]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 35 tons month - on - month to 8,920 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 508 tons month - on - month to 8,978 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by 2,298 lots month - on - month to 75,930 lots; in the spot market, on March 23, the average price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingot was 341,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12,150 yuan/ton [18]. - **Main Logic**: The supply problem of tin has been alleviated to some extent. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas in low - altitude areas, and it is expected that the ore output in Wa State will gradually increase; in Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has become looser; the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, although the supply - side problem of tin has been alleviated compared with before, the supply in the main production areas is still vulnerable. On the demand side, the rapid development of AI has driven the semiconductor industry to maintain high growth, but the global new photovoltaic installed capacity may not increase this year, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may decline. However, other traditional fields such as tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals remain basically stable. Considering the inventory reconstruction in the industrial chain, it is expected that the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. Overall, there are still supply risks, and with the resilience of downstream demand, it is expected that there will still be support at the bottom of tin prices. However, in the short term, it is suppressed by weak macro sentiment and the expectation of supply recovery, and the price will maintain a fluctuating operation [18][19]. 3.2行情监测 - No specific monitoring content provided in the text. 3.3中信期货商品指数（2026 - 03 - 23） - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,531.78, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2,810.80, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%; the industrial product index was 2,583.01, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% [147]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on March 23, 2026 was 2,553.80, with a daily increase or decrease of - 0.91%, a five - day increase or decrease of - 5.41%, a one - month increase or decrease of - 4.36%, and a year - to - date increase or decrease of - 4.92% [149].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply disturbance risk persists, and lithium carbonate shows slightly stronger performance. The supply - demand expectation of new energy metals has weakened. In the short term, the demand expectation is weak, and new energy metals are under pressure, but the supply disturbance supports the price of lithium carbonate. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - side contraction expectation path of polysilicon has changed from administrative clearance to market - based clearance, with its price expected to fluctuate widely; industrial silicon supply and demand are in surplus, and its price is expected to be under pressure; lithium ore production capacity is rising, and demand growth is also fast, with the expected surplus narrowing, and the supply - demand improvement is expected to push up the price center [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of March 23, the price of oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang was 8,650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 in Xinjiang was 8,850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,750 yuan/ton. As of last week, the domestic inventory was 435,550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; market inventory was 184,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; factory inventory was 251,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. In February, the export of industrial silicon was 47,520 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%; the cumulative export from January to February was 113,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.9% [7]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts cause energy concerns, and the recent rise in coal prices provides cost support for industrial silicon. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the production capacity of large factories in Xinjiang has partially recovered after the Spring Festival, and the operation rates in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia are at a high level, with the supply in the northwest currently stable; the operation rate in the southwest has dropped to a very low level during the dry season, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. In the long run, the over - supply pressure of industrial silicon still exists. On the demand side, polysilicon has a large inventory consumption pressure, some silicon material factories continue to shut down for maintenance, and the demand for industrial silicon in March is still weak; silicone enterprises continue to hold prices, and the demand for industrial silicon is mainly based on rigid needs; the operation rate of the aluminum alloy is expected to recover after the Spring Festival, but the demand for industrial silicon is limited [7]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon is still in a loose pattern. In the short term, the rise in coal prices provides cost support, and the silicon price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On March 23, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 43.5 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/kg. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,810 lots, with a month - on - month change of 0 lots [8]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the macro - hedging sentiment has increased, and most risk assets have declined, dragging down the polysilicon price. On the supply side, it is currently the dry season, and the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest is still in a state of reduction, with the overall production at a low level. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon remains weak, the silicon wafer production schedule is still low, the polysilicon inventory is continuously accumulating, and the number of warehouse receipts is also increasing, putting pressure on the price. In the medium - to long - term, considering that the polysilicon supply is also shrinking, and leading enterprises are strengthening integration and mergers, the long - term supply and demand of polysilicon are expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [8]. - **Outlook**: The weak demand drags down the polysilicon price, but considering that the supply is still at a low level, the polysilicon price may show a wide - range fluctuation in the medium - to long - term [8]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Information**: On March 23, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.6% to 149,040 yuan/ton. The morning - session spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 145,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 250 yuan/ton, and the evening - session market price was 144,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the morning - session price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 142,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan/ton, and the evening - session price was 144,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 781 lots to 33,537 lots [9]. - **Main Logic**: The supply disturbance has not been resolved, and the terminal demand has weakened. The lithium price fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. In the first quarter of 2026, the supply remains relatively strong. According to customs data, the imports of lithium ore and lithium carbonate from January to February have maintained good growth. At the same time, the demand is differentiated. The sales volume of new energy vehicles is not good, but the production of cathode materials at the primary end is still booming, which needs further verification. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a tight balance. The Middle East geopolitical events cause the market to switch between recession expectations and energy substitution expectations, and the market lacks a strong driving force, so the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No new content provided other than what is in the "行情观点" section. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No new content provided other than what is in the "行情观点" section. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No new content provided other than what is in the "行情观点" section. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: The comprehensive index is not described in detail. The commodity 20 index was 2,810.80, a decrease of 0.34%; the industrial product index was 2,583.01, an increase of 1.73% [48]. - **板块指数**: For the new energy commodity index on March 23, 2026, the current price was 479.82, with a daily decline of 1.77%, a decline of 7.50% in the past 5 days, a decline of 7.56% in the past month, and a decline of 5.86% since the beginning of the year [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - In the week of March 22, global full - caliber (including in - transit) crude oil inventories declined significantly, likely due to shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf leading to a decrease in the number of in - transit cargoes. Floating storage inventories increased significantly, mainly due to the backlog of cargoes within the Persian Gulf. In terms of on - land inventories by region, European inventories decreased slightly, while inventories in China, India, Russia, and the Middle East all increased [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **Global Full - Caliber Crude Oil Inventory**: In the week of March 22, it declined significantly, mainly because shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf led to a decrease in in - transit cargoes [2] - **Floating Storage Inventory**: It increased significantly, mainly due to the backlog of cargoes within the Persian Gulf [2] - **On - land Inventory by Region**: - **Europe**: Inventory decreased slightly [2] - **China, India, Russia, Middle East**: Inventories increased [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Import and Export Profit Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: March 22, 2026 [1] - Researchers: Yang Jiaming (F3046931, Z0015448), Chen Ziang (F03123846, Z0019914), Yang Li (F03147405, Z0022768) [2] Core Content Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil price spread between domestic and international markets is presented in a chart, showing price differences between Singapore Port and Zhoushan Port from 2021 to 2025 [4][5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil price spread between Zhoushan and Singapore is presented, covering the period from 2021 to 2025 [6][7] PTA and Ethylene Glycol - PTA price spread between domestic and international markets from 2022 to 2024 is shown in a chart [8][9] - Ethylene glycol spot price spread between domestic and international markets in 2023 and 2024 is presented [10][11] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene price spreads between South Korea and China, South Korea and the US, and global pure benzene prices are presented in charts, with different time - series data from 2022 to 2026 [12][13] PVC - PVC international market prices including different regions like India, US Gulf, Northwest Europe, and Tianjin are shown from 2010 to 2025 [17][18] - Price spread between India and China from 2022 to 2025 is presented [19][20] LLDPE - LLDPE price spreads between the US and Asia, Europe and Asia, and the Middle East and Asia are presented in charts, with different time - series data [21][23][25] PP - PP price spreads between the US and Asia, Europe and Asia, and the Middle East and Asia are presented in charts, covering different time periods from 2021 to 2026 [28][29][31] Methanol - Methanol CFR price in China from 2010 to 2025 is shown [33][34] - Methanol price spreads between the US and Asia, and Europe and Asia are presented in seasonal charts from 2022 to 2026 [35][37] Urea - Global major urea prices from 2013 to 2025 are presented [39][40] - Urea price spreads between the Middle East and China (FOB small - particle), Egypt and China (FOB large - particle) are shown in different time - series [41][43] - Urea export profit in 2026 is presented [45][46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the week of March 22, global full - caliber (including in - transit) crude oil inventories declined significantly, likely due to shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf leading to a decrease in the number of in - transit cargoes. Floating storage inventories increased significantly, mainly due to the backlog of cargoes inside the Persian Gulf. In terms of on - land inventories by region, European inventories decreased slightly, while inventories in China, India, Russia, and the Middle East all increased [2] Summary by Related Charts Global Crude Oil Inventory Charts - Charts 1, 3, 4 show global on - land, floating storage, and combined land + floating/sea crude oil inventories from 2022 - 2026, with specific numerical scales provided, such as 3050000, 335000, 3900000 etc. [3] Regional Crude Oil Inventory Charts - Chart 5 shows China's crude oil inventory from 2022 - 2026 with inventory levels ranging from 950000 to 1250000 [5] - Chart 6 shows the US crude oil inventory from 2022 - 2026 with inventory levels from 13000 to 22000 [16][17] - Chart 7 shows India's crude oil inventory from 2022 - 2026 with inventory levels from 80000 to 110000 [7] - Chart 8 shows Europe's crude oil inventory from 2022 - 2026 [10] - Chart 9 shows Russia's crude oil inventory from 2022 - 2026 with inventory levels from 750000 to 1050000 [9] - Chart 11 shows the Middle East's crude oil inventory from 2022 - 2026 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - China's natural gas supply is mainly supported by domestic production and pipeline imports, with LNG as a supplement. In 2025, domestic production accounted for over 60% of total supply, pipeline imports rose to 18.77%, and LNG imports fell to 20.68% [1][3][4] - Gas demand growth has slowed. In 2025, industrial and urban gas LNG consumption declined, while refueling station demand rose 10%. In 2026, demand growth will likely be driven by the power and transportation sectors, as industrial and traditional urban demand remains weak [2][4] - LNG imports are expected to recover in 2026. Domestic production will rise steadily and pipeline imports will see no significant growth. With domestic gas consumption projected to grow moderately, LNG imports will fill the gap, with growth dependent on demand realization [3][4][71] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply: Domestic Production and Pipeline Imports as the Foundation, LNG Imports as a Supplement Domestic Production: Production Boost and Storage Building Underpin the Steady Growth of Domestic Supply - China's natural gas output has maintained a steady rise in recent years, concentrated mainly in the Southwest, Northwest and North China. In the first 11 months of 2025, cumulative domestic natural gas output rose by 6.4% year - on - year [11][75] - Corporate capital expenditure remains at a high level. The capital expenditure on exploration and production by the Big Three National Oil Companies has basically stayed at 400 billion yuan per year since 2022. China's natural gas output is expected to reach 300 billion cubic meters by 2030 [15][79] Pipeline Gas Imports: Accelerated Growth in the Past Two Years, Growth Rate Likely to Slow in the Future - Imports of pipeline natural gas have risen year after year, concentrated primarily in Russia and Turkmenistan. In the first 11 months of 2025, cumulative imports reached 54.46 million tonnes, a year - on - year increase of 7.6% [20][83] - The average import price is expected to decline further alongside oil prices, yet the simulative effect on import volumes is likely to be limited. Import volumes depend more on pipeline expansion and contract execution [24][86] LNG Imports: Diversified Channels, Volatile Import Volumes - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's cumulative LNG imports reached 60.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. Price declines boosted imports in the second half [27][89] - International oil prices lead LNG average import prices by approximately six months, with short - term fluctuations driven by JKM gas prices [27][92] - 2026 remains a peak year for the commissioning of global LNG export capacity. A further drop in costs is expected to spur a recovery in China's LNG imports, yet the actual change in import volumes will still depend on domestic demand and fluctuations in supply from other channels [32][97] Supply Structure: Strong Cost Advantages for Domestic Production and Pipeline Imports, with LNG Imports as a Supplement - Domestic natural gas production accounts for nearly 60% of China's total supply, and pipeline gas imports have registered rapid growth in recent years. In 2025, the share of domestic output in total supply exceeded 60%, the proportion of pipeline gas imports climbed to 18.77%, while that of LNG imports fell to 20.68% [33][98] - Domestic natural gas and imported pipeline gas hold a distinct cost advantage over LNG. China's natural gas supply structure is built on domestic production and pipeline gas imports, with LNG imports serving as a supplement [34][99] Demand: Gradually Slowing Growth, with Transportation and Power Sectors as the Major Growth Drivers Urban Gas: Slowing Growth in Traditional Demand, with Transportation Demand Emerging as a New Growth Driver - Urbanization rate growth has driven the rise in China's urban gas consumption. Since 2023, the growth in urban gas consumption has been driven primarily by the transportation sector [43][44][106] - LNG heavy - duty truck sales have passed their explosive growth phase, and competition with new energy heavy - duty trucks is likely to intensify in the future [49][110] Power Sector: Rising Installed Capacity Drives Consumption Growth, While Higher Capacity Prices May Curb Utilization Hours - Installed gas - fired power capacity has grown at an accelerated pace during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, with the share of natural gas consumption in the power sector edging up slightly. As of November 2025, installed gas - fired power capacity exceeded 160 GW [52][112] - Gas - fired power generation registered a robust year - on - year growth in 2025, with the major increment concentrated in South China. The peaking role of gas - fired power units will be further strengthened [57][116] Industrial Sector: Coal - to - Gas Switch Drives Fuel Demand Growth, While Chemical Demand Hits a Bottleneck - Natural gas consumption for industrial fuel has maintained steady growth, whereas consumption in the chemical industry has contracted in recent years. Growth in industrial fuel demand may face certain pressure in the short term [59][64][120] - Natural gas demand in the chemical industry may see a marginal recovery in the follow - up period as international natural gas prices decline further [68][126] China's Natural Gas Supply and Demand to Remain Loose in 2026, with LNG Imports Set for a Recovered Growth - On the demand side, growth in industrial and traditional urban gas demand is hitting a bottleneck. Transportation and power sector demand have become the major growth drivers, but their current volume remains relatively small. China's natural gas consumption is likely to remain in a slow - growth trajectory, with the year - on - year growth rate expected to stay within 5% [71][131] - On the supply side, domestic production is projected to continue rising, yet pipeline gas imports may see no notable year - on - year increase in 2026. LNG imports are highly likely to register a recovery in 2026, with the actual growth magnitude dependent on the fulfillment of demand [71][131] - In the medium to long term, China's domestic natural gas production is expected to maintain a steady upward trend, while demand growth slows year by year. Growth in natural gas imports is likely to decelerate in tandem, with pipeline gas imports taking priority over LNG [72][131]