2025 年 7 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,148 | 0.97 | 41.65 | | 恒生国企 | 8,709 | 1.15 | 50.97 | | 恒生科技 | 5,326 | 2.10 | 41.49 | | 上证综指 | 3,497 | 0.72 | 17.56 | | 深证综指 | 2,102 | 1.28 | 14.39 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,181 | 1.15 | 15.32 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,241 | -1.31 | 17.38 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,226 | -0.86 | 30.52 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,418 | -0.89 | 36.02 | | 德国 DAX | 24,207 | 1.76 | 44.50 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [31]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 41.4% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index, which rose by 25.2% [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for a rational perspective on the valuation of innovative drugs, as their prices are expected to continue rising due to high expectations for overseas transactions [2]. - The Chinese innovative drug sector is characterized by high risk, long development cycles, and high returns, with a strong global competitive edge in R&D capabilities [2]. - Recent policy measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration are expected to support the long-term payment space for innovative drugs, including encouraging commercial health insurance to expand investment in innovative drugs [5]. Summary by Sections Company Ratings and Valuations - Companies such as Sanofi (1530 HK), Junshi Biosciences (2367 HK), and others are rated as "Buy" with significant upside potential, with target prices indicating potential increases of 15% to 54% [3]. - For instance, Junshi Biosciences has a market cap of $7,720 million and a target price of $79.96, suggesting a 37% upside [3]. Market Trends and Policy Impact - The report highlights that the innovative drug sector will benefit from new policies that support high-quality development, which will open up payment avenues for innovative drugs [5]. - The commercial health insurance market is projected to grow significantly, with expected premium income reaching 977.3 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies specific companies with strong growth potential, including Junshi Biosciences, Guo Shengtang, and Angelalign, which are expected to benefit from robust product offerings and market expansion [5]. - The overseas business of Angelalign is noted for its improving profitability, with expectations for continued growth driven by a large international market [5].

Market Overview - Global markets experienced a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,888, down 0.76% for the day but up 40.13% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines of 0.79% and 0.92% respectively, while the DAX in Germany rose by 0.58% [1] - The report highlights a rise in risk aversion due to escalating trade tensions, particularly with new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on several countries [3] Industry Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, with the MSCI China Healthcare Index up 41.4% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 16.2% [4] - The report emphasizes the need for a rational perspective on the valuation of innovative drugs, as the market anticipates higher transaction frequencies and scales for overseas deals [4] - Recent policy measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration are expected to enhance the long-term payment landscape for innovative drugs, with commercial health insurance projected to reach 977.3 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 8.2% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several companies within the healthcare sector as attractive investment opportunities, including: - **Giant Bio**: Expected sales recovery driven by product and brand expansion [6] - **Guo Shengtang**: Rapid expansion of stores and strong cash flow [6] - **Angelalign**: Improving profitability in overseas markets [6] - Other recommended stocks include: - **Sangfor Technologies (1530 HK)**, **Giant Bio (2367 HK)**, **Guo Shengtang (2273 HK)**, **Angelalign (6699 HK)**, **BeiGene (ONC US)**, and **Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)** [6] Focus Stocks - The report lists several focus stocks with potential upside, including: - **Geely Automobile (175 HK)**: Target price of 24.00, representing a 47% upside [7] - **Xpeng Motors (XPEV US)**: Target price of 28.00, representing a 56% upside [7] - **Sany International (631 HK)**: Target price of 8.70, representing a 32% upside [7] - Other notable mentions include **Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)**, **Polaire (603605 CH)**, and **Tencent (700 HK)**, all rated as "Buy" with significant upside potential [7]

Macro Economic Overview - The US job market remains robust, with June non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding market expectations, leading to a drop in the unemployment rate. However, the job growth is primarily supported by seasonal government education positions, while private sector employment, especially in manufacturing and key service industries, has slowed considerably [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with a reduced probability of interest rate cuts in the near term. Inflation is anticipated to slightly rebound from June to August before declining again in September [2] - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market showed mixed results, with Hong Kong stocks declining while A-shares rose, driven by sectors such as banking and public utilities [4] Company Analysis - Alibaba (BABA US) announced plans to issue HKD 12 billion in zero-coupon exchangeable bonds due in 2032 to support international business development. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including investments in cloud infrastructure and international business [5] - The issuance of these bonds is expected to help Alibaba quickly raise overseas funds for international expansion and increase the liquidity of Alibaba Health's shares upon conversion [5] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba with a target price of USD 155.5, reflecting a potential upside of 43% from the current price of USD 108.70 [6] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 48% from the current price of HKD 16.26 [6] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 28.00, representing a 49% upside from its current price of USD 18.85 [6] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 40.61, suggesting a 6% upside from the current price of USD 38.49 [6]

Industry Insights - The technology sector is significantly impacted by the recent US-Vietnam trade agreement, with Apple’s supply chain expected to benefit the most from the elimination of a major uncertainty [2][6] - The US will impose a 20% tariff on goods exported from Vietnam, while a 40% "transshipment" tariff will apply to goods from other countries, down from a previously announced 46% [2] - Companies with high revenue exposure to the US and production capabilities in Vietnam, such as AAC Technologies, BYD Electronics, and Hon Teng Precision, are likely to respond positively in the short term [6] Company Analysis - BeiGene (ONC US) has shown promising initial efficacy with its CDK4 inhibitor BGB-43395, which demonstrates good hematological safety and a lower incidence of neutropenia compared to other approved CDK4/6 inhibitors [6][9] - The incidence of grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) was only 19.7% in the dose optimization cohort, significantly lower than the 29-55% range seen in other CDK4/6 inhibitors [6][9] - The objective response rate (ORR) for BGB-43395 in a small cohort of HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer patients was 11%, with a disease control rate (DCR) of 55.6%, indicating potential for improved outcomes with longer follow-up [7][9] - The company plans to initiate a Phase III trial for BGB-43395 in second-line HR+/HER2- breast cancer in Q4 2025, maintaining confidence in its development [7][9] - The blood cancer treatment pipeline is competitive, with the BTK inhibitor Zebrutinib leading in new prescriptions and Sonrotoclax showing differentiated advantages over Venetoclax [8][9] - BeiGene is advancing clinical trials for Sonrotoclax in various indications and plans to submit new drug applications in China for R/R MCL and R/R CLL by 2H25 [8][9]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,221, down 0.26% for the day but up 42.08% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 in the US closed at 6,227, up 0.88% for the day and 30.56% year-to-date [1] - The DAX in Germany closed at 23,790, down 1.01% for the day but up 42.02% year-to-date [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Financial Index rose 0.06% for the day and is up 48.18% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 1.22% but is down 2.68% year-to-date [2] - The Chinese stock market saw gains in energy, real estate, and materials, while information technology, healthcare, and telecommunications lagged [3] Investment Opportunities - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00, representing a potential upside of 47% from its current price of 16.32 [4] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, indicating a 52% upside from its current price of 18.37 [4] - Tencent (700 HK) has a target price of 660.00, suggesting a 32% upside from its current price of 501.50 [4] Economic Indicators - The US ADP employment data unexpectedly declined, raising expectations for interest rate cuts, while the two-year Treasury yield fell [3] - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which may reflect a dual impact from economic slowdown and reduced labor supply due to immigration policies [3]

Market Overview - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.87% and the S&P 500 up 0.52% year-to-date performance remains strong for most indices, with the Hang Seng Index up 41.21% [1][2] - The Chinese A-share market saw gains, particularly in the pharmaceutical, banking, and non-ferrous sectors, while the computer, retail, and telecommunications sectors experienced declines [3] Industry Insights - The Chinese automotive industry reported robust sales in June for new energy vehicles, with Li Auto's deliveries down 11% month-on-month, while XPeng and NIO met expectations with significant year-on-year growth [5][6] - BYD maintained stable wholesale volumes in June, while Geely raised its annual sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million units, reflecting strong demand [6] - The heavy truck sector in China saw a 29% year-on-year increase in sales in June, driven by both diesel and new energy trucks, exceeding expectations [7] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 48% [8] - XPeng Motors (XPEV US) also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, suggesting a 53% upside [8] - NIO (not specified) is undergoing brand integration and personnel streamlining to reduce resource waste, although the effectiveness of these measures is uncertain [5]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,284, down 0.17% for the day but up 42.45% year-to-date [1] - The US markets, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, saw gains of 1.00% and 0.52% respectively, with the Nasdaq also up by 0.52% [1] - European markets performed well, with Germany's DAX rising 1.62% and France's CAC increasing by 1.78% [1] Industry Insights - The software and IT services sector is experiencing significant advancements in AI, with shorter iteration cycles and improved model capabilities [4] - AI is expected to drive growth in cloud computing and advertising in the short term, while its impact on sectors like autonomous driving and e-commerce should be monitored in the long term [4] - The independent AI application commercialization is still in its early stages, but B2B applications are showing positive momentum overseas [4] Company Analysis - Bosideng (3998 HK) has a conservative sales growth forecast of 10% for FY26, with management confident in outperforming the industry due to its strengths in product design and market promotion [6][7] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings with a focus on high-end and functional products, targeting sales of 40 billion RMB for its extreme cold series in FY26 [5] - Bosideng's FY25 results met expectations with a 12% increase in sales to 25.9 billion RMB and a 14% rise in net profit to 3.5 billion RMB [6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng with a target price of 5.55 HKD, reflecting a 13x FY26 forecasted P/E ratio [7] - The report suggests that factors such as low base effects, late Spring Festival, and product upgrades will support Bosideng's growth [7] - Other companies highlighted for potential investment include Tencent (700 HK) and Microsoft (MSFT US), both expected to benefit from AI-driven growth in their respective sectors [4][8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the Chinese stock market, while stablecoin concepts continue to rise, and the Renminbi reaches a new high since November last year [1] - The report indicates that the Chinese government will allocate 138 billion yuan in the second half of the year to stimulate consumption, amidst pressures for additional consumer stimulus policies [1] - The report notes that the U.S. economic data is weakening, which raises expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to a recovery in global market risk appetite [2] Company Analysis - ZhongAn Online (6060 HK) has initiated a new share placement at HKD 18.25 per share, raising approximately HKD 3.896 billion (around USD 496 million) to strengthen its capital base and support innovation in fintech [5][6] - The company expects a 15% year-on-year growth in total premiums for the year, driven by strong demand in health and auto insurance sectors, with a projected growth rate of 20% and 22% respectively for these segments [6] - ZhongAn's stock is currently trading at 1.3x FY25E P/B, with a target price of HKD 20.4, reflecting confidence in its core insurance business and potential for further capital strengthening [7] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the positive market response to Xiaomi's recent product launches, including the YU7 SUV, which saw a pre-order volume of 289,000 units within the first hour, indicating strong demand [8] - The report projects that Xiaomi's electric vehicle sales could exceed initial forecasts, with a target of 360,000 units for 2025 [8] - The stablecoin market is highlighted as having significant growth potential, with Coinbase's stablecoin business accounting for 15% of its total revenue in Q1 2025, driven by favorable regulatory developments [7]

Market Overview - Chinese stock market experienced significant gains, led by brokerage stocks, as the People's Bank of China and six ministries reiterated efforts to promote long-term capital inflow and stabilize the capital market [1] - European stock markets declined, with NATO members committing to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, but the market may be entering a profit-taking phase as these expectations are already priced in [1] - US stock market saw slight increases, with technology, communication services, and healthcare sectors rising, while real estate and utilities fell [2] Company Analysis: GuoShengTang (固生堂) - GuoShengTang, a leader in China's private TCM service industry, demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 12.7% year-on-year increase in offline patient visits in Q1 2025, showing a month-on-month acceleration [6] - The company plans to accelerate store expansion, aiming to open 15-20 new stores in 2025, including both self-built and acquisitions, enhancing its market leadership in key regions [6] - GuoShengTang launched the first national TCM AI avatar, which utilizes deep learning from a renowned TCM expert, aiming to improve diagnostic quality and address the shortage of quality TCM resources [7] - The company has a strong focus on increasing self-paid revenue, with less than 30% of its income coming from insurance, and plans to expand treatment and self-paid herbal medicine income [8] - GuoShengTang returned 4.2 billion yuan to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2024, representing 137% of its net profit for that year, and continues to maintain a robust cash flow for shareholder returns [8] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 52.75 HKD, expecting revenue growth rates of 26.7%, 25.9%, and 25.0% for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [8] Company Analysis: Carote (卡罗特) - Carote's sales growth is expected to remain weak in Q2 2025, similar to Q1, with a forecasted single-digit growth due to high base effects from the previous year and ongoing macroeconomic challenges [9][10] - The company has adjusted its sales growth forecast for FY 2025 from 23% to 14%, anticipating a slowdown in demand in key markets like China and Europe [10] - Recent tariff increases on steel and aluminum products significantly impact Carote's gross margins, with total tariffs on exports to the US potentially reaching 73.3% [11] - The rating for Carote has been downgraded to "Hold" with a target price of 4.64 HKD, reflecting the anticipated decline in net profit and sales growth due to rising tariffs and weak demand [11]