2025 年 4 月 2 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 固生堂 (2273 HK) AI 赋能中医服务龙头 资料来源：公司资料、彭博及招银国际环球市场预测 | 目标价 | 52.38 港元 | | --- | --- | | (此前目标价 | 56.50 港元) | | 潜在升幅 | 57.5% | | 当前股价 | 33.25 港元 | 中国医药 武 煜, CFA (852) 3900 0842 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 黄本晨, CFA huangbenchen@cmbi.com.hk 公司数据 固生堂发布 24 年度业绩，收入同比增长 30.1%至 30.2 亿元，经调整净利润同比 增长 31.4%至 4.0 亿元。公司的收入符合我们的预期，但利润端比我们的预测高 3.1%。公司业绩在医保监管趋严的情况下保持了高速的增长，体现出固生堂作为 龙头企业的合规性以及强劲发展势头。受益于强劲增长的客户需求，公司线下收 入同比增长 35%，其中老店收入同比增长 28%，门诊人次同比增长 25.9%，客单 价同比增长 3.3%。公司持续推进医联体合作，全年新增 8 家医联体合作单位。 ...

1 Apr 2025 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Maxscend (300782 CH) LT prospects intact; Maintain HOLD on continued margin pressure Maxscend released its FY24 results. Revenue went up by 2.5% YoY to RMB4.5bn, missing CMBI estimates/BBG consensus by 2%/1%. NP declined significantly by 64.2% YoY to RMB402mn, missing CMBI estimates/BBG consensus by 28%/21%. GPM/NPM declined by 7.0ppt/16.7ppt to 39.5%/9.0% in FY24 (vs. 46.4%/25.6% ...

2025 年 4 月 1 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观经济及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 中国经济 - PMI 显示复苏势头持续 3 月制造业 PMI 继续保持复苏势头，新订单和生产均强劲增长。但通缩压力 依然存在，原材料采购和出厂价格指数进一步收缩。原材料和制成品库存下 降，显示企业不愿扩大资本支出和库存投资。服务业 PMI 因需求改善而小幅 上升，而建筑业 PMI 进一步扩张。 受益于房地产市场改善、耐用品销售强劲以及贸易顺差扩大，今年第一季度 GDP 增速可能达到 5.2%。但是 4 月和 5 月外部冲击风险将会上升，特朗普 的对等关税和极限施压可能会抑制全球贸易活动、商业投资和市场信心。 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,120 | -1.31 | 35.62 | | 恒生国企 | 8,517 | -1.05 | 47.64 | | 恒生科技 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Life OPAT, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1% to RMB 27.6 billion, surpassing forecasts. Group OPAT rose 2.5% YoY to RMB 34.4 billion, and net profit increased significantly by 64.9% YoY to RMB 45.0 billion, exceeding profit alerts by 55%-70% [1]. - The company achieved a notable 57.7% increase in NBV on a like-for-like basis, despite revising down long-term investment return assumptions by 50 basis points to 4.0% [1][9]. - The report highlights the insurer's effective asset/liability management and strong fundamentals, positioning it favorably against peers [1]. Financial Performance - For FY24, net profit is projected at RMB 46.4 billion, with EPS expected to be RMB 4.67. The consensus EPS for FY25 is RMB 4.29, indicating a slight downward revision from previous estimates [2][9]. - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decline from 0.8 in FY24 to 0.7 in FY25, reflecting a more attractive valuation [2][12]. - The combined ratio for P&C insurance is projected to be 98.6% for FY24, indicating a slight deterioration compared to the previous year [12]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at HK$34.00, representing a 37.1% upside from the current price of HK$24.80 [2][10]. - The stock is trading at 0.54x FY25E P/EV and 1.05x P/B, suggesting it is undervalued relative to its embedded value [10][12]. - The report notes a significant increase in total investment income, which soared 131% YoY to RMB 120.4 billion, driven by higher dividends and fair value gains [8]. Share Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately HK$238.6 billion, with a 52-week high of HK$33.15 and a low of HK$14.14 [3]. - Over the past month, the stock has appreciated by 7.8%, outperforming the market [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PICC P&C, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The full-year combined ratio (CoR) for FY24 was reported at 98.8%, which is a 1.0 percentage point increase year-on-year, primarily due to a rise in the loss ratio [1][8]. - The management provided an optimistic guidance for FY25, expecting the auto and non-auto CoR to be less than 96% and 99% respectively, which is an improvement compared to previous years [1][8]. - The net profit for FY24 is projected to be RMB 32.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, aligning with forecasts [1][2]. - The report revises the EPS forecasts for FY25-27 upwards by 6%, 11%, and 18% to RMB 1.58, 1.74, and 1.93 respectively, driven by improved CoR composition [1][9]. Financial Performance - Total insurance revenue for FY24 is expected to reach RMB 485.2 billion, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase, with auto and non-auto insurance service revenue rising by 4.5% and 8.8% respectively [8]. - The underwriting profit is anticipated to drop by 44% year-on-year to RMB 5.7 billion, with a significant loss recorded in Q4 [1][8]. - The dividend per share (DPS) for FY24 is set at RMB 0.54, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, indicating a payout ratio of 37.3% [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for PICC P&C has been revised to HK$15.80 from the previous HK$14.00, representing a 9.9% upside from the current price of HK$14.38 [3][10]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.09x for FY25E, with an average 3-year forward return on equity (ROE) estimated at 13.5% [10][12]. - The report highlights a dividend yield of 4.7% for FY25, increasing to 5.7% by FY27 [2][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [15]. Core Insights - CSPC's total revenue is projected to decline by 7.8% YoY to RMB29.0 billion in FY24, primarily due to significant drops in oncology and cardiovascular drug sales [7]. - The company anticipates a return to positive organic revenue growth in FY2025, driven by new product launches and business development (BD) initiatives [7]. - CSPC has made substantial progress in out-licensing innovative assets, aiming to secure 3-4 out-licensing deals annually to generate recurring revenue [7]. - The target price for CSPC is revised to HK$5.71 from HK$5.97, reflecting a 15.5% upside from the current price of HK$4.94 [3][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY23 is reported at RMB31,450 million, with a slight YoY growth of 1.7%, while FY24 revenue is expected to drop to RMB29,009 million [2][12]. - Net profit for FY23 is RMB6,072.7 million, showing a decline of 2.6% YoY, with further expected declines in FY24 to RMB4,338.8 million [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY23 is reported at RMB0.49, with projections of RMB0.37 for FY24 [2][12]. Business Development and Pipeline - CSPC's business development efforts are expected to create a sustainable revenue stream, with a robust pipeline of 40-50 assets identified for out-licensing potential [7]. - The company is focusing on clinical trials for its EGFR ADC (SYS6010), which is currently in Phase 3 development globally [7]. Market Performance - CSPC's market capitalization is reported at HK$58,871 million, with a 52-week high of HK$7.12 and a low of HK$4.34 [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 4.9% and a 3-month performance of 3.3% [5].

Company Analysis - Xinda Biopharmaceuticals (1801 HK) is expected to achieve sustainable profitability ahead of schedule in 2024, with a projected non-IFRS net profit of 332 million RMB and EBITDA of 412 million RMB, driven by strong product revenue growth and one-time licensing fee income [2] - The total revenue for Xinda Biopharmaceuticals is anticipated to reach 9.42 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 52%, with product sales revenue of 8.23 billion RMB, up 44% year-on-year [2] - The sales of the monoclonal antibody, Xindili, grew by 34% to 526 million USD, and the company expects to continue maintaining non-IFRS EBITDA profitability in 2025, even excluding an 8 million USD upfront payment from a licensing deal with Roche [2][5] Financial Performance - Xinda Biopharmaceuticals' non-IFRS gross margin is projected to improve from 82.8% in 2023 to 84.9% in 2024, while the SG&A ratio is expected to decrease from 58.0% to 50.9%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5] - By the end of 2024, the company is expected to hold a strong cash balance of 10.2 billion RMB, supporting its long-term development [5] Product Pipeline and Innovation - Xinda Biopharmaceuticals is focusing on developing next-generation immunotherapies and ADCs, with over 10 ADC clinical projects underway, including IBI363, which is anticipated to be a significant product for treating immune-resistant and cold tumors [5][6] - The company plans to update data on IBI363 at the ASCO conference in June, including results from a clinical trial in immune-resistant squamous non-small cell lung cancer [5] Market Overview - The global market has shown mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.65% and the S&P 500 down 1.97% on the same day, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors [2][4] - The report highlights that the U.S. core PCE inflation exceeded expectations, contributing to increased market risk aversion, while European markets also experienced declines [4] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinda Biopharmaceuticals, with a target price raised to 61.71 HKD, reflecting confidence in the company's sustainable profitability and strong innovation pipeline [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for the company with a target price (TP) revised down by 9% to HK$ 25.35, implying a 36.9% upside from the current price of HK$ 18.52 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company experienced mixed performance in FY24, with net sales remaining flat at US$ 3.6 billion, while net profit decreased by 13% YoY to US$ 346 million, primarily due to higher selling expenses and fewer impairment reversals [1][2]. - Major markets such as Asia and North America saw declines of 3.6% and 1.2% YoY, respectively, but growth in Europe and Latin America offset these declines with increases of 3.1% and 17.0% YoY [1]. - The management anticipates a decline in sales for 1Q25, projecting a fall by low single digits to mid single digits, influenced by weak US consumer sentiment despite a recovery in Asia [1][9]. - Organic sales and net profit are expected to grow by 1.5% and 1.8% YoY in FY25E, respectively, supported by ongoing share buybacks and progress in dual-listing [1][9]. Financial Summary - For FY24, the company reported revenue of US$ 3,589 million, a decrease of 2.5% YoY, with a projected revenue of US$ 3,731 million for FY25E, reflecting a growth of 4.0% [2][32]. - The net profit for FY24 was US$ 346 million, down 12.9% YoY, with an expected slight recovery to US$ 351.8 million in FY25E [2][32]. - The report indicates a decline in gross profit margin from 60.0% in FY24 to an expected 59.5% in FY25E, while the operating profit margin is projected to remain at 17.1% [29][32]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a decline of 14.1% over the past month and 14.3% over the past three months, indicating a challenging market environment [5]. - The current market capitalization stands at HK$ 26,729.4 million, with an average turnover of HK$ 128.1 million over the last three months [3]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Schroders PLC with 6.0% and Bank of New York Mellon Corporation with 5.4% [4]. E-commerce Performance - In the first two months of FY25, online sales on major platforms like TBTM and JD.com decreased by 7% and 18% YoY, while sales on Douyin surged by 200% YoY, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and effective marketing strategies [9][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for EHang Holdings with an unchanged target price of US$30, indicating a potential upside of 44.6% from the current price of US$20.75 [3][21]. Core Insights - EHang has obtained the first-ever Operator Certificate (OC) for commercial operations of its pilotless passenger-carrying eVTOL aircrafts, which positions the company to conduct aerial tourism and air taxi services in Guangzhou and Hefei [1]. - The earnings forecast for 2025E and 2026E remains unchanged, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory despite current losses [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 117 million in FY23A to RMB 1,646 million in FY27E, with year-on-year growth rates of 165.0% in FY23A and 288.5% in FY24A [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 301.7 million in FY23A to a profit of RMB 246.4 million in FY27E [2]. - The company’s P/S ratio is forecasted to decrease from 81.2x in FY23A to 5.8x in FY27E, indicating a more favorable valuation as revenue increases [2]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of EHang is approximately US$1.31 billion, with an average turnover of US$46 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month decline of 9.6% but a 6-month increase of 47.5%, indicating volatility in the short term but positive performance over a longer period [5]. Shareholding Structure - The largest shareholder is Huazhi Hu, holding 30.7% of the shares, which may influence company decisions and strategic direction [4]. Customer Orders - EHang has secured significant orders, with a total of 1,210 aircraft orders (195 delivered and 1,020 intent orders) from various customers, indicating strong demand for its eVTOL products [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Innovent Biologics, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics is entering a phase of sustainable profitability, having achieved a full-year non-IFRS net profit of RMB332 million in FY24, driven by strong product revenue growth and one-off license fee income [8]. - The target price has been revised upwards from HK$57.67 to HK$61.71, reflecting a 33.6% upside potential from the current price of HK$46.20 [3][8]. - The company is advancing its next-generation immuno-oncology (IO) therapies and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), with significant clinical programs underway [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB6,206 million in FY23 to RMB11,356 million in FY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.8% [2][13]. - Net profit is expected to turn positive in FY25, reaching RMB445.7 million, with EPS projected at RMB0.27 [2][11]. - R&D expenses are forecasted to remain stable, while gross profit margin is expected to expand to 84.9% in FY24 from 82.8% in FY23 [2][8]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Innovent Biologics is approximately HK$75.68 billion, with a 52-week high of HK$51.15 and a low of HK$30.00 [3][4]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month absolute return of 14.2% and a 3-month return of 29.8% [5]. Pipeline and Growth Potential - Innovent has a robust pipeline with over 10 ADC clinical programs and is focusing on combination trials with its next-generation IO therapy, IBI363 [8]. - The company aims to initiate multiple Phase 3 trials by 2030, targeting global markets with its innovative therapies [8].