Core Insights - The company forecasts a 14% year-on-year growth in core OTA revenue for Q3 2025, with total revenue expected to increase by 9% to 5.45 billion yuan [1][2] - The vacation business continues to face pressure, particularly due to a 25% year-on-year decline in flight volume from China to Thailand [2] Revenue Breakdown - **Accommodation**: Expected to grow by 14% year-on-year, driven by a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a steady rise in the share of three-star hotels and a slight increase in platform ADR [1] - **Transportation**: Anticipated to grow by 9% year-on-year, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic passenger volume and a rapid growth in international ticket sales [1] - **Other Revenue**: Expected to increase by 34% year-on-year, driven by growth in hotel management and PMS revenue [1] Profitability and Guidance - The company maintains its full-year revenue and profit guidance for 2025, projecting a 15% increase in core OTA revenue and a Non-IFRS net profit of 3.3 billion yuan [2] - The company is focused on cost control and enhancing international business monetization [2] Valuation and Market Position - The company maintains a target price of 28 HKD, representing an upside potential of 28%, with current trading at 14x/12x 2025/2026 Non-IFRS P/E [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais anticipates Tongcheng Travel's (00780) third-quarter core online travel platform (OTA) business to grow by 15% year-on-year to 4.6 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit reaching 1.03 billion RMB and a profit margin of 19% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue from accommodation and transportation ticketing is expected to increase by 14% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit forecast has been slightly raised due to improved sales and marketing efficiency [1] Group 2: Stock Rating and Price Target - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been raised from 20 HKD to 22 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The performance during the National Day holiday met internal expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the fourth quarter, particularly for outbound tourism [1] - The recent acquisition of Wanda Hotel Development (00169) is expected to enhance the brand value of the existing hotel management business, although its impact on this year's financial performance is anticipated to be limited due to the need for strategic development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC anticipates Tongcheng Travel (00780) will see a 15% year-on-year growth in its core online travel agency (OTA) business for Q3, reaching 4.6 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit of 1.03 billion RMB and a profit margin of 19% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from accommodation and transportation ticketing is expected to increase by 14% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit forecast has been slightly raised due to improved sales and marketing efficiency [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been increased from 20 HKD to 22 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Seasonal Performance - The performance during the National Day holiday met internal expectations, indicating strong demand [1] - The fourth quarter's outbound tourism performance is deemed crucial for the group's growth prospects in 2026 [1] Acquisition Impact - The recent acquisition of Wanda Hotel Development (00169) is expected to have a limited impact on this year's financial performance due to the need for strategic development [1] - The acquisition is believed to enhance the brand value of the existing hotel management business and improve earnings per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais forecasts that Tongcheng Travel's core online travel agency (OTA) business revenue will grow by 15% year-on-year to 4.6 billion yuan in Q3, with adjusted net profit reaching 1.03 billion yuan and a profit margin of 19% [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Expectations - The expected revenue growth for the accommodation and transportation ticketing segments is 14% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The fourth quarter's outbound tourism performance is deemed crucial for the group's growth prospects in 2026 [1] Group 2: Acquisition Impact - The recent acquisition of Wanda Hotel Development is expected to have a limited impact on this year's financial performance due to the need for the group to establish a development strategy and the limited time remaining in the year [1] - The acquisition is anticipated to enhance the brand value of the group's existing hotel management business and improve earnings per share [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustment - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been raised from 20 HKD to 22 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel (00780) for 2025 and 2026, with an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 28, indicating an upside potential of 28% [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For Q3 2025, CICC expects core OTA revenue to grow by 14% year-on-year, with total group revenue increasing by 9% to RMB 5.45 billion, and Non-IFRS net profit projected at RMB 1.02 billion [2] - The hotel segment is expected to see a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a stable share of three-star hotels, leading to a 14% growth in accommodation revenue [2] - The transportation segment is projected to grow by 9%, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic flight passenger volume and a rise in international ticket sales [2] Group 2: Overall Business Performance - The company maintains a 15% growth expectation for core OTA revenue in 2025, driven by steady growth in domestic accommodation and transportation, along with contributions from international business [3] - The hotel management business is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with the completion of the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management in Q4 [3] - CICC maintains the forecast for the company's Non-IFRS net profit at RMB 3.3 billion for 2025, supported by efficient cost control and enhanced international business monetization [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts Tongcheng Travel's Q3 revenue to increase by 9% year-on-year to 5.45 billion yuan, with core OTA revenue expected to rise by 14% to 4.59 billion yuan, and Non-IFRS net profit projected at 1.02 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - CICC maintains its full-year 2025 revenue and profit guidance for Tongcheng Travel, expecting core OTA revenue to grow by 15% year-on-year and Non-IFRS net profit to reach 3.3 billion yuan [1] Business Segment Performance - The domestic segments of accommodation and transportation within the core OTA business show steady growth, while the overseas segment contributes additional growth [1] - Other business segments, particularly hotel management, continue to experience high growth, with the completion of the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management expected in Q4 [1] Rating and Target Price - CICC maintains a "outperform industry" rating for Tongcheng Travel, setting a target price of 28 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel (00780) for 2025 and 2026, with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 28, indicating an upside potential of 28% [1] Group 1: Revenue Forecasts - For Q3 2025, the group expects a 9% year-on-year increase in total revenue to CNY 5.45 billion, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 14% to CNY 4.59 billion [2] - The hotel segment is anticipated to see a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a steady rise in the share of three-star hotels, leading to a 14% growth in accommodation revenue [2] - The transportation segment is expected to grow by 9%, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic flight passenger volume and a rapid growth in international ticket sales [2] - Other revenues are projected to increase by 34%, driven by growth in hotel management and PMS revenues [2] Group 2: Annual Guidance - The company maintains its 2025 core OTA revenue growth forecast at 15%, supported by steady growth in domestic accommodation and transportation, along with contributions from international business [3] - The company is expected to achieve a Non-IFRS net profit of CNY 3.3 billion for 2025, aided by efficient cost control and enhanced monetization of international business [3]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Tongcheng Travel (00780) will experience stable growth in core OTA revenue for Q3, with an expected year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Revenue Projections - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, and UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient [1] - The company’s accommodation revenue is projected to grow at a mid-teens level [1] - In the transportation segment, UBS predicts a high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for Tongcheng in Q3 [1] Target Price Adjustment - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts Tongcheng Travel (00780) to experience stable growth in core OTA revenue for Q3, with an expected year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Revenue Projections - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, but UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient [1] - The company’s accommodation revenue growth is projected to be in the mid-teens percentage range [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Transportation Business - In terms of transportation services, UBS predicts a high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for Tongcheng in Q3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects Tongcheng Travel's core OTA revenue to achieve a 14% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, approaching the upper end of its previous guidance of 10%-15% [2] Revenue Insights - Despite normalized travel demand during the National Day holiday, Tongcheng's hotel revenue is expected to remain resilient, with accommodation revenue growth likely nearing the mid-teens percentage range [2] - In the transportation segment, third-quarter revenue is anticipated to achieve high single-digit year-on-year growth [2] Target Price Adjustment - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng Travel from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]