证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 2024gszqdatemark 年 08 月 17 日 李宁（02331.HK） 2024H1 表现符合预期，全年业绩预计持平略增 公司 2024H1 营收增长 2.3%，归母净利润下降 8%，整体表现符合预 期。1）收入：2024H1 公司营收同比增长 2.3%至 143 亿元，其中批发/直 营/电商增速分别-2%/+3%/+11%。2）毛利率：2024H1 公司毛利率同比 提升 1.6pcts 至 50.4%，毛利率的提升一方面来源于电商以及线下直营业 务折扣的改善，另一方面来源于电商&直营占比提升导致渠道结构变化。 3）销售费用率：2024 年作为体育赛事大年，李宁加强销售费用投放， 2024H1 销售费用率提升 2pcts 至 30.2%。4）归母净利润：综合考虑利息 收入等非经常性收益的减少后，公司上半年归母净利润同比下降 8%至 20 亿元，归母净利率同比-1.5pcts 至 13.6%。5）派息：公司拟派发中期股 息每股 37.75 分/股，股利支付率为 50%（2023 年同期为 45%）。 李宁成人装：短期流水有所波动，公司重视内功修炼，推动品牌可持续增 长。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for Li Ning [1][4][32]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 2.3% year-on-year to 14.35 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, despite a challenging consumer environment [1][7]. - Gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 50.4%, driven by better discount management and changes in channel structure [1][7]. - The company plans to increase its interim dividend payout ratio to 50%, up from 45% in the previous year [1][7]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was 14.35 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% decline year-on-year [1][7]. - The operating profit margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 16.7%, while the net profit margin fell by 1.5 percentage points to 13.6% [1][7]. - The company expects revenue growth in 2024 to be in the low single digits, with net profit margin maintained in the low double digits [31][32]. Product Performance - The running category led growth with a 25% increase, with three core running shoe series selling over 5 million pairs [15][32]. - The basketball category saw a decline in both growth and market share, attributed to a slowdown in the overall basketball market [15][32]. - The sports lifestyle category's sales increased significantly, with the soft series achieving a nearly fourfold year-on-year growth [15][32]. Channel Performance - Revenue from the wholesale channel decreased by 2% to 6.59 billion yuan, while direct sales grew by 2.7% to 3.5 billion yuan [13][32]. - E-commerce revenue increased by 11.4% to 4 billion yuan, with a significant improvement in customer traffic and conversion rates [13][32]. - The overall inventory turnover ratio remained healthy, with a 3.9-month inventory turnover period [20][32]. Financial Forecasts - The company revised its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 3.15 billion, 3.55 billion, and 3.86 billion yuan respectively [32][33]. - The target price was adjusted to 17.9-19.2 HKD, down from 24.3-25.7 HKD, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5-14.5x for 2024 [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning (2331) [2] Core Views - H1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with profits surpassing forecasts while revenue met expectations [3] - The company revised its full-year 2024 revenue guidance downward due to ongoing macroeconomic pressures [3] - Li Ning's operating quality remains healthy, with the running category performing exceptionally well [4] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 14.345 billion, a 2.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Net profit for H1 2024 was RMB 1.952 billion, an 8% year-on-year decrease [4] - Gross margin improved to 50.4%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Net profit margin declined to 13.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company plans to pay an interim dividend of 37.75 cents per share, with a payout ratio of 50% [4] Business Operations - Running category sales increased 25% year-on-year in H1 2024, accounting for 30% of total sales [4] - Basketball category sales decreased 20% year-on-year in H1 2024, representing 22% of total sales [4] - Inventory turnover improved to 3.9 months, down from 4-4.5 months in Q1 2024 [4] - E-commerce gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points, while direct-to-consumer gross margin rose by 0.5 percentage points [4] Market Performance - Current stock price: HKD 13.10 [5] - 52-week price range: HKD 13.10 - 40.75 [5] - Current market capitalization: HKD 33.857 billion [5] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts adjusted to RMB 3.20/3.62/3.90 billion, down from previous estimates of RMB 3.38/3.75/4.14 billion [4] - Projected PE ratios for 2024-2026: 10/9/8 times [4] - Revenue growth guidance for 2024 revised from mid-single-digit to low-single-digit growth [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was generally in line with expectations, with revenue of 14.35 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and a net profit of 1.95 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% [1] - The decline in net profit was primarily due to an increase in expense ratios exceeding the growth in gross profit margins, with operating profit margin decreasing by 1.0 percentage points to 16.7% and net profit margin decreasing by 1.5 percentage points to 13.6% [1] - The company adjusted its revenue guidance for 2024 to low single-digit growth, previously expecting mid-single-digit growth, while maintaining a low double-digit net profit margin guidance [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.35 billion HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% and a net profit of 1.95 billion HKD, reflecting an 8.0% decline [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the period was 0.76 HKD, with a proposed interim cash dividend of 0.378 HKD per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 50% [1] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 50.4%, mainly due to better product discount management and an increase in the proportion of high-margin direct sales [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by category for the first half of 2024 was distributed as follows: footwear (54.7%), apparel (37.5%), and equipment and accessories (7.8%), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.4%, -4.7%, and 30.3% [1] - Revenue by channel showed a decline in distribution and retail store sales by 2.0% and an increase in e-commerce sales by 11.4% [1] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing market efficiency in high-tier markets and expanding into emerging markets, while also strengthening its product offerings in categories such as outdoor and youth apparel [4] - The company plans to manage inventory effectively and improve its flexible response capabilities to market changes [4] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards by 8%, 6%, and 5% respectively, with expected EPS of 1.25, 1.45, and 1.63 HKD for the respective years [4][5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 10, 8, and 7 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 2.3% to RMB 14.345 billion, with a gross margin rise of 1.6 percentage points to 50.4%[2] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 1.952 billion, with a net profit margin of 13.6%[6] - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 1.965 billion, down from RMB 2.125 billion in the previous year[7] - Basic earnings per share decreased to RMB 75.80 from RMB 80.63 year-on-year[6] - The company's revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 14,345,288 thousand, an increase from RMB 14,018,947 thousand in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of 2.3%[41] - The group's profit attributable to equity holders for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,952,032,000, a decrease from RMB 2,121,231,000 in 2023, resulting in a profit margin of 13.6% compared to 15.1% in the previous year[54] Cash Flow and Assets - Operating cash inflow rose by 40.6% to RMB 2.730 billion, indicating improved cash flow management[2] - Total assets increased to RMB 35.536 billion from RMB 34.208 billion as of December 31, 2023[5] - The total cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 6,146,726,000, an increase of RMB 702,843,000 from December 31, 2023[57] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved to 37.2% from 40.2% as of December 31, 2023[38] Inventory and Receivables Management - Inventory decreased to RMB 2.313 billion from RMB 2.493 billion, reflecting better inventory management[4] - The company reported a total inventory of RMB 2,312.83 million as of June 30, 2024, down from RMB 2,493.21 million as of December 31, 2023[19] - Accounts receivable as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 1,259.01 million, compared to RMB 1,243.75 million as of December 31, 2023[20] - The expected credit loss provision for trade receivables decreased to RMB 48,394 thousand as of June 30, 2024, down from RMB 142,428 thousand in the same period of 2023, indicating a reduction of about 66%[22] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from footwear reached RMB 7,844.16 million, an increase of 4.38% compared to RMB 7,514.67 million in the previous year[16] - Revenue from apparel decreased to RMB 5,375.22 million, down 4.67% from RMB 5,639.91 million in the same period last year[16] - E-commerce sales increased to RMB 4,004.26 million, up 11.39% from RMB 3,595.35 million in the previous year[17] - The proportion of revenue from e-commerce channels increased to 27.9%, up from 25.6% in the previous year[43] Expenses and Investments - Total sales and distribution expenses increased by 9.6% year-on-year to RMB 4,326,883,000, accounting for 30.2% of total revenue[47] - Administrative expenses rose to RMB 680,297,000, representing 4.7% of total revenue, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year[48] - Research and product development expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 317,257 thousand, an increase from RMB 290,764 thousand in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of about 9.1%[24] - The company completed the acquisition of Vansittart Investment Limited for a total consideration of HKD 2.221 billion (approximately RMB 2.013 billion), with RMB 1.813 billion allocated to investment properties[9] Market and Sales Performance - Overall retail sales (including online and offline) recorded a low single-digit decline, indicating challenges in market demand[2] - Direct sales revenue slightly increased by 2.7% year-on-year, maintaining a stable retail flow[41] - The basketball category has been strategically enhanced with the launch of four new product lines: "馭帥," "音速," "閃擊," and "空襲," each targeting specific performance functions[74] - The company has effectively utilized celebrity endorsements to reach a broader consumer base, enhancing brand recognition and appeal[80] Strategic Initiatives and Innovations - The company continues to focus on technological innovation to enhance sports participation and promote a healthy lifestyle[41] - The company has successfully launched three innovative products: "绝影3" running shoes, "龙雀" high-performance racing shoes, and biodegradable professional sports shoes, showcasing advancements in technology and environmental sustainability[70] - The company plans to increase the usage of metal 3D printing technology in shoe production to 60-70% by 2025, enhancing product precision and quality[71] - The company has engaged in various marketing strategies, including collaborations with Disney and LPL, to build emotional connections with younger consumers[81] Workforce and Organizational Development - The company employed 5,003 employees as of June 30, 2024, an increase from 4,845 employees at the end of 2023, indicating growth in workforce[89] - The company is committed to optimizing its organizational structure and enhancing talent development to support strategic goals[88] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The audit committee reviewed the accounting principles and practices adopted by the group and confirmed compliance with international accounting standards for the interim financial data[93] - There were no significant matters requiring disclosure under the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Rules from June 30, 2024, to the date of the announcement[92]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HK$26.55, representing a 71% upside from the current price of HK$15.50 [1] Core Views - Li Ning's 1H24 revenue is expected to grow by 2.0% YoY to RMB 14.3 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 14.9% YoY to RMB 1.81 billion [1] - For the full year 2024, revenue and net profit are forecasted to grow by 5.2% and 5.1% YoY, reaching RMB 29.03 billion and RMB 3.35 billion, respectively [1] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 49.4% in 1H24, up 0.6 percentage points YoY, driven by improved discount rates [1] - Li Ning is focusing on expanding its product line in the RMB 399-599 price range and adopting a "one county, one strategy" approach to penetrate lower-tier cities [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 27.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 32.6 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.7% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3.19 billion in 2023 to RMB 4.02 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.1% [1] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 48.4% in 2023 to 50.0% in 2026 [2] Valuation - The target price of HK$26.55 implies a 17x 2025 P/E ratio [1] - Current valuation metrics show a 2024E P/E of 10.9x, P/B of 1.4x, and P/S of 1.3x [2] Industry Outlook - The report assigns an **Overweight** rating to the Consumer Durables & Apparel sector, indicating expected outperformance relative to the market [1] Key Drivers - Li Ning's running shoe matrix is performing well, with continued iterations of flagship products like Jueying and Dilu [1] - The company is adjusting its basketball shoe offerings to cater to the consumption downgrade trend, introducing products priced between RMB 499-699 [1] - Channel reforms are underway, with a focus on expanding in lower-tier cities through tailored strategies [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Ning is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 20.7, maintained for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - Li Ning's focus on technological innovation is a key driver for the brand's growth, highlighted by the recent 2024 Li Ning Technology Conference showcasing its advancements in sports technology [1]. - The company has introduced six unique innovative technologies, including Carbon Core and GCU, which significantly enhance product performance and athlete experience [1]. - Revenue projections for Li Ning are estimated at RMB 29.3 billion, RMB 32.1 billion, and RMB 35.0 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of RMB 3.4 billion, RMB 3.9 billion, and RMB 4.4 billion [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Li Ning has a total of 6,214 main brand stores as of March 31, 2024, with a net decrease of 26 stores compared to the end of 2023 [1]. - The company is committed to enhancing its logistics network, which has improved the quality and efficiency of direct deliveries to retail and wholesale stores [1]. Financial Performance - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.3, RMB 1.5, and RMB 1.7 for the years 2024 to 2026, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 13, and 11 respectively [2]. - The company has maintained its profit forecasts, indicating confidence in its operational strategies and market positioning [2]. Market Strategy - Li Ning is focusing on a "single brand, multi-category, multi-channel" strategy to strengthen its brand presence and retail operational capabilities [2]. - The company is enhancing its digital logistics and supply chain transparency, which is expected to improve overall customer experience and operational efficiency [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company possesses a rare professional sports gene and industry-leading product capabilities. With 2024 being a significant year for sports, the launch of multiple technological platforms and new products is expected to drive revenue growth. The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 3.38 billion, 3.75 billion, and 4.14 billion RMB, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 15, 13, and 12 times [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The report discusses the launch of three industry-leading innovations at the "2024 Li Ning Technology Show," including the "Absolute Shadow 3," "Dragon Sparrow," and "Anti-Rain Double Permeable Nano Technology" [6]. Product Innovations - The "Absolute Shadow 3" is expected to be released soon, featuring three major upgrades that enhance rebound strength, energy efficiency, and stability. The "Dragon Sparrow" is positioned as the lightest marathon racing shoe in the industry, weighing under 89g for size 8.5, incorporating advanced lightweight materials [7]. Market Expectations - With the upcoming Paris Olympics in July 2024, the company plans to launch new products and marketing initiatives starting in Q2. The report anticipates that the second half of the year will see better revenue and same-store sales growth compared to the first half, driven by new product launches and marketing efforts [8]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates a steady increase in revenue from 14.457 billion RMB in 2020 to an expected 35.370 billion RMB in 2026, with a projected net profit growth from 4.011 billion RMB in 2022 to 4.144 billion RMB in 2026. The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 16 in 2023 to 12 in 2026 [9].

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call is associated with Guohai Securities, focusing on investment suitability management for clients [1] Core Points and Arguments - The views expressed by the conference guests are personal opinions and do not represent Guohai Securities' stance [1] - The conference does not constitute any investment advice [1] - Recording or forwarding the meeting is strictly prohibited, with legal consequences for violations [1] - Guohai Securities reserves all legal rights regarding the information shared during the conference [1] - Guohai Securities and its employees are not liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the conference information [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on risk awareness in investment practices is highlighted, indicating a cautious approach to investment [1]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Hold" [1][11]. Core Views - The growth momentum of the company is weaker compared to its competitors, leading to a diminished valuation attractiveness. The target price is adjusted to HKD 23.0, reflecting a potential upside of 10.0% from the current price of HKD 20.9 [1][4]. Summary by Sections Short-term Performance - The company's online revenue growth in Q1 2024 is at the lower end of 20% year-on-year, similar to Anta, while offline revenue performance lags behind major competitors. Wholesale store revenue has decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, and direct retail store revenue has declined similarly [2][3]. Market Share and Brand Strength - Despite strong growth in the running category, the basketball category has seen a year-on-year decline in revenue. Competitors like Anta and 361 Degrees are investing heavily in basketball, suggesting that the company is losing market share in this segment [2][3]. - The company's brand strength may be under pressure, as recent high-profile marketing efforts have not significantly enhanced its brand or product appeal. The company has been lackluster in marketing and new product launches, raising concerns about its competitive edge [2][3]. Market Expectations and Valuation - The market's expectations for the company's net profit in 2024 appear overly optimistic, with significant downside risks. Investors may be underestimating the impact of additional property depreciation, one-time profits from joint ventures last year, and declining interest income on the company's profit margins for 2024 [2][3]. - The current valuation at 15x 2024 PE does not present a compelling investment case, given the projected compound annual growth rate of 8.3% for net profit from 2023 to 2026 [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 27,598 million in 2023 to RMB 28,952 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Net profit is expected to slightly increase from RMB 3,187 million in 2023 to RMB 3,218 million in 2024, a growth of 1.0% [3][7]. - The report highlights a recovery in channel inventory and a healthier inventory age structure, with significant improvements in retail discounts across various channels compared to the second half of 2023 [2][3].