Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities stabilizing sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the rise of favorable policies for housing and the potential for commercial real estate assets to be revalued during a monetary easing cycle [2][3]. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 201 million square meters last week, up 11.9% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities increasing by 12.6% and third and fourth-tier cities by 3.2% [4][5]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in November are down 39%, with first and second-tier cities down 37.8% and third and fourth-tier cities down 49.2% [5][7]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities was 89.538 million square meters, with a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week [22][23]. Policy and News Tracking - The State Council supports the issuance of REITs for private investment projects and the central bank aims to improve the foundational financial system for real estate [31][32]. - Local policies include the promotion of purchasing existing homes for affordable housing in Hangzhou and the launch of online applications for housing provident fund loans in Zhengzhou [31][34]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales data for October 2025. China Jinmao achieved sales of 12 billion yuan, up 3%, while other companies like New Town Holdings and CIFI Holdings saw significant declines [38][39]. - China Resources Land announced a placement of 49.5 million shares, raising approximately 2.06 billion HKD, maintaining a 70.1% stake post-placement [38][39]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 2.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 1.08%, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [43][47]. - Notable stock performances included China Wuyi and Huaxia Happiness, which saw significant gains, while companies like Asia Pacific Real Estate and Shenzhen Real Estate A experienced declines [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious optimism despite current challenges [2][3]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with significant declines in new construction and completion rates. For the period from January to October 2025, total real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, with new construction down by 19.8% and completions down by 16.9% [1][20]. - The sales side shows a broader decline in sales volume and price. From January to October 2025, the sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a more pronounced drop of 18.8% in October alone. The sales amount also fell by 9.6% year-on-year, with a 24.3% decline in October [2][33]. - Funding sources for real estate development are tightening, with total funding down by 9.7% year-on-year. In October, funding sources saw a significant drop of 21.9% compared to the previous month [35]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the real estate sector is still in a bottoming phase, with core cities expected to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the potential shift of real estate companies towards manufacturing and the favorable conditions for quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle [2][3]. - Adjustments to the 2025 forecasts include a projected investment decline of 14.2% (previously 11.0%), new construction down by 18.0% (previously 15.1%), and completions down by 17.7% (previously 20.0%) [20][34].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in adjusted net profit for Q3 2025, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability despite stable transaction volumes and efforts in cost control [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8% [1] - Total transaction volume for the period was 736.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year stability [1] - Net revenue reached 23.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - Overall gross margin was 21.4%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year due to a decrease in the contribution from high-margin existing and new housing business [1] Business Segments - The existing housing transaction volume was 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, with net revenue of 6 billion yuan, down 3.6% [2] - The contribution margin for existing housing was 39.0%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, impacted by reduced revenue and increased fixed labor costs [2] - New housing transaction volume was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7%, with net revenue of 6.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.1% [2] - Non-property transaction service revenue increased to 45% of total revenue, with a contribution margin of 39.7% [2] Cost Control and Efficiency - Operating expenses for the period were 4.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.5% [1] - Fixed labor costs decreased by 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control measures [2] Future Outlook - The company has increased its stock buyback efforts, spending approximately 280 million USD in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [3] - The company maintains a strong cash reserve of approximately 70 billion yuan, supporting its operational stability [3] - Future adjusted net profits are projected to be 5.76 billion, 7.68 billion, and 9.67 billion yuan over the next three years [3] - A target price of 60.0 HKD / 22.8 USD has been set, maintaining a buy rating based on expected growth and efficiency improvements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in Q3 2025, with net revenue showing a slight increase while net profit experienced a significant decline, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amidst operational adjustments and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved net revenue of 23.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit was 747 million yuan, down 36.1% year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 1.286 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 27.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company's total GTV for Q3 2025 was 736.7 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The company continued to optimize operational efficiency, with operating expenses decreasing by 1.8% year-on-year and 6.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The decline in profit was attributed to a lower proportion of high-margin existing and new housing business revenues, with overall gross margin decreasing by 1.3 percentage points to 21.4% [1]. Group 3: Business Segments - The existing housing business GTV grew to 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, but net revenue fell by 3.6% to 5.991 billion yuan due to a higher proportion of GTV from agents [1]. - The new housing business GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year, with net revenue declining by 14.1% to 6.639 billion yuan, reflecting a similar trend to the national market [2]. - The "two wings" business segments, including home decoration and rental services, showed profitability improvements, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and rental income at 5.727 billion yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 94.665 billion yuan, 92.631 billion yuan, and 96.035 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.3%, -2.1%, and +3.7% respectively [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 6.083 billion yuan, 7.146 billion yuan, and 8.095 billion yuan for the same period, with respective year-on-year changes of -15.5%, +17.5%, and +13.3% [2].

Core Insights - The company reported a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, primarily driven by the development of its two wings business [1] - The adjusted net profit decreased by 28% year-on-year, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [2] - The existing housing business remained stable, while the new housing business showed a decline in performance [3][4] Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total GTV of 736.7 billion yuan, with revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - The revenue contributions from various segments were as follows: existing housing (26%), new housing (29%), home decoration and furniture (19%), rental services (25%), and emerging businesses (2%) [1] - The two wings business continues to enhance the stability of the company's revenue amid a challenging market environment [1] Profitability Analysis - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.3 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.6% [2] - The gross profit margin was reported at 21.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The contribution profit rates for various segments were: existing housing (38%), new housing (26%), home decoration (23%), rental services (8%), and emerging businesses (5%) [2] Segment Performance - The existing housing business GTV was 505.6 billion yuan, showing a 6% year-on-year increase, while revenue was 6 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year [3] - The new housing business GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% year-on-year decline, with revenue also down 14% [4] - The home decoration and furniture business revenue grew by 2% year-on-year, while rental services saw a significant increase of 45% [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a more pronounced year-on-year decline in revenue for its main business segments in Q4 due to high base effects [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly lowered to 5.4 billion and 7 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating despite the downward adjustments in profit forecasts [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The two main business segments are gradually becoming profitable, and significant share buybacks are being conducted to reward shareholders. The company is expected to see substantial incremental growth from its home decoration and rental businesses, which are turning profitable. Despite short-term pressures on the brokerage business due to market cycles, the company maintains a clear alpha compared to the industry. Continuous innovation and AI empowerment are expected to enhance quality and efficiency, leading to greater earnings elasticity as market conditions stabilize [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.1 billion yuan (up 2.1%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 750 million yuan (down 36.0%). Adjusted net profit was 1.29 billion yuan (down 27.8%). For the first three quarters of 2025, these figures were 72.4 billion yuan, 2.9 billion yuan, and 4.5 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +16.1%, -16.8%, and -23.3% [6][10]. Business Segments - The rental revenue has increased significantly, countering the decline in the brokerage segment. The company reported a 45.3% year-on-year increase in rental revenue, with over 660,000 managed properties as of Q3 2025. The brokerage business saw a decline in revenue from existing and new homes, with year-on-year changes of -3.6% and -14.1%, respectively [10]. Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 21.4%, with a gross profit decline of 3.9%. The profitability of the rental business improved significantly, contributing a profit margin of 8.7%. The company has successfully managed expenses, with selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 18.4% [10]. Share Buybacks and Future Outlook - The company executed a share buyback amounting to 281 million USD in Q3 2025, the highest in nearly two years. Cumulatively, 675 million USD has been spent on buybacks in the first three quarters, representing nearly 3% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024. The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.78 billion, 7.62 billion, and 8.33 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24.3, 18.4, and 16.9 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][12]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 23.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%. However, net income decreased by 27.8% to 1.286 billion yuan [1][4]. - The net revenue from second-hand housing transaction services fell by 3.6% to 6 billion yuan, while new housing transaction services saw a decline of 14.1% to 6.6 billion yuan [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.286 billion yuan, reflecting a significant drop compared to the previous year [2][4]. - The company maintained a strong cash position with cash and short-term investments totaling 55.7 billion yuan, and continued share repurchases amounting to 281 million USD in Q3 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 23.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. The total transaction value (GTV) was 736.7 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin decreased to 21.4%, down from 22.7% in the same period last year, primarily due to reduced contributions from second-hand and new housing transaction services [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 5.601 billion yuan, with a decline of 22.3% expected in 2025 [11]. Future Projections - Revenue estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 93.62 billion yuan, 92.83 billion yuan, and 96.16 billion yuan, respectively [11]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is forecasted to be 0.71 USD, 0.97 USD, and 1.10 USD, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.5X, 17.2X, and 15.3X [2][11]. Market Position - The company is recognized for its leading position in the market, and its scarcity as an investment target supports the "Buy" rating [2][4].

贝壳-W(02423)发布公告，该公司于2025年11月13日斥资300万美元回购53.4万股股份，每股回购价格为 5.5-5.74美元。 ...

格隆汇11月14日丨贝壳-W(02423.HK)公告，11月13日耗资300万美元回购53.4万A股。 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02423 | 說明 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) | 2025年11月13日 | 3,366,778,024 | | 0 | | 3,366,778,024 | | 1). 其他 (請註明) | | | % | | | | | 見B部分 | | | | | | | | ...