A股尾盘大金融板块跌势扩大，证券、保险方向领跌，中银证券跌超6%，中国人保、中国太保、中国 平安、中国人寿、中国银河、国泰海通等跌幅靠前。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，2015年的煤炭、2025年的多晶硅、光伏玻璃等行业跌至甚至 跌破现金成本仍然在生产。如果没有外部扰动因素，需要等到行业内标致性的头部企业出清出市场，行 业可能才至底部。该行认为当前煤炭行业已经走出过往"现金流压力下的囚徒困境"，从供给和需求两方 面看板块基本面或已经到达此轮周期底部，维持行业"增持"评级。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 从多晶硅、玻璃到2015年的煤炭：囚徒困境下的现金流博弈 1)供给侧改革后央国企成为行业主导(TOP50中央国企占比约85%份额);2)2021-2024年盈利大幅度改善， 行业负债率快速下降，基本已无偿债压力;3)政府具备技术监管手段及产能限制政策(安监局要求产能利 用率不能超过110%)，共同促进煤炭行业供给格局大幅度改善，已经"不一样"。从2025年4月港口价格 跌破650元/吨，全国出现大范围大规模的产量下降，就是印证了经济学原理"经济性导致的企业自发减 产"行为。 供需走出底部，国家能源局发声煤炭"反内卷" 该行认为2025Q1暖冬天气因素导致的总量需求不及预期已经过去，随着全社会用电总量的快速恢复，5 月开始电煤需求已经开始恢复1 ...

Group 1 - The company, New Point Software, has released a voluntary disclosure of its performance forecast for the first half of 2025, expecting a revenue of 670.28 million yuan, a decrease of 14.52% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between -74.20 million yuan and -49.46 million yuan, indicating an increase in losses by 25.80 million yuan to 50.53 million yuan compared to the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase in loss margin of 109.02% to 213.52% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between -122.10 million yuan and -81.40 million yuan, reflecting an increase in losses by 7.10 million yuan to 47.80 million yuan compared to the previous year, with a year-on-year increase in loss margin of 9.55% to 64.33% [1] Group 2 - New Point Software was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on November 17, 2021, with an initial public offering of 82.50 million shares at a price of 48.49 yuan per share, currently in a state of decline [2] - The total amount raised from the initial public offering was 4.00 billion yuan, with a net amount of 3.83 billion yuan, exceeding the original fundraising target by 0.93 billion yuan [2] - The funds were intended for various projects including underlying technology research, software platform upgrades, and construction of research and operation centers, among others [2]

来源：国泰海通证券研究 导读 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定2025年10月召开中共四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形势和部署下半年经济工 作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形势的判断相较4月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适 逢"十五五"规划起草在即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与2020年7月政治局会议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： 第一，对财政和货币政策的要求从"用好用足"转变为"落实落细"，"充分释放政策效应"。财政政策方面，会议要求"提高资金使用效率"；货币政策方面， 则要求"用好各项结构性货币政策工具"。在二季度各项宏观政策已经在加速落实的背景下，下半年将更加关注政策效果。 第二，"反内卷"淡化"低价"，置于全国统一大市场建设的总体布局之中。与中央 ...

Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled coil futures market shows a mixed sentiment with a slight increase in the main contract price, while the overall positions indicate a net short among the top 20 positions [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - As of July 30, the main contract for hot-rolled coil (2510) closed with a price change of +0.81%, and the trading volume reached 1.3374 million contracts, with total transactions across all contracts amounting to 1.7719 million contracts, an increase of 438,200 contracts from the previous day [1][3]. - The top 20 positions show a total long position of 1.7434 million contracts, a decrease of 17,000 contracts, while the total short position increased to 1.8482 million contracts, an increase of 8,142 contracts [1][3]. Major Players - The top three long positions are held by Guotai Junan with a total holding of 227,678 contracts, CITIC Futures with 224,154 contracts, and Everbright Futures with 145,677 contracts [1][3]. - The top three short positions are also led by Guotai Junan with 401,739 contracts, followed by Dongzheng Futures with 142,390 contracts, and Everbright Futures with 122,151 contracts [1][3]. Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 positions, the largest increase in long positions was seen in Yong'an Futures with an increase of 8,372 contracts, followed by Dadi Futures with an increase of 4,694 contracts, and Zhongtai Futures with an increase of 3,907 contracts [1][3]. - Conversely, the largest decreases in long positions were recorded by Dongzheng Futures with a reduction of 19,419 contracts, Guotai Junan with a decrease of 10,192 contracts, and CITIC Futures with a decrease of 9,293 contracts [1][3]. - For short positions, the largest increases were in Dongzheng Futures with an increase of 3,615 contracts, Yide Futures with an increase of 3,145 contracts, and Beijin Futures with an increase of 2,288 contracts [1][3]. - The largest decreases in short positions were noted in CITIC Futures with a reduction of 21,691 contracts, Yong'an Futures with a decrease of 2,646 contracts, and Guotai Junan with a decrease of 2,222 contracts [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - Cryptocurrency trading is primarily dominated by hedge funds and retail investors, facilitated through top centralized exchanges, with significant regulatory developments enhancing compliance and service offerings in the sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Cryptocurrency Trading Dynamics - As of Q2 2025, 69% of Bitcoin is expected to be held by individuals, while approximately 80% of trading volume is driven by institutional investors such as hedge funds, leaving retail investors with only 20% of the trading volume [1][2]. - Major centralized exchanges like Binance, MEXC, and HTX are estimated to account for 50% of global trading volume, serving as crucial liquidity centers [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The EU introduced the MiCA regulation in June 2023, allowing securities firms to register as Crypto Asset Service Providers (CASP) to offer various services including custody and trading [3]. - The U.S. House Rules Committee passed a cryptocurrency bill on July 14, 2025, enabling brokers to register with the CFTC as Digital Commodity Exchanges (DCE) and engage in trading and market-making activities [3]. - The Hong Kong SFC's A-S-P-I-RE roadmap allows securities firms to apply for licenses to operate digital asset trading platforms or act as intermediaries [3]. - New regulations in Singapore require digital token service providers to register as DTSPs to conduct digital token trading and related services [3]. Group 3: Internet Brokerage and Liquidity Provision - Internet brokerages leverage their retail customer flow to provide liquidity to exchanges, enhancing their business models [4]. - The Payment for Order Flow (PFOF) model allows brokerages like Robinhood to package customer orders and sell them to market makers, generating spreads while offering commission-free trading to retail clients [4]. - Firms like Futu and Tiger Brokers connect retail customer flow to exchanges, charging lower fees (0.08%-0.05%) compared to exchange trading fees (0.1%-0.3%) [4]. - The PFOF model retains customer assets within brokerage accounts, facilitating the expansion of business scenarios, including crypto asset staking and self-custody wallets [4].

7月28日，康尼机电（603111.SH）公告称，收到南京市中级人民法院送达的1名机构投资者诉公司证券 虚假陈述责任纠纷案件的一审《民事判决书》【（2022）苏01民初928号】，其中，判决赔偿损失 3290.79万元。《民事判决书》显示，被告除康尼机电外，还有国泰海通、苏亚金诚、东洲评估、嘉源 律所、陈某、高某等，被判分别在50%、40%、15%、2%、2%、2%范围内承担连带责任。 康尼机电称，上述判决书为待生效的一审判决，公司拟提起上诉。 不过，截至上述公告日，共有17名投资者对康尼机电提起了索赔诉讼，累计诉请金额为38263.29万元， 均已下达一审判决，一审判决康尼机电负担的赔偿损失和案件受理费合计金额为8314.65万元。其中， 在一审民事判决书【（2022）苏01民初3953号】中，判决国泰海通对康尼机电负担的赔偿损失和案件受 理费合计金额为54.77万元，在50%范围内承担连带责任。目前康尼机电已对9名普通投资者履行完毕赔 偿义务，合计赔偿金额为139.48万元。 中经记者 罗辑 北京报道 针对上述公告涉及的证券虚假陈述责任纠纷案件，除上述17件案件外，康尼机电对法院已受理但尚未立 案的其他4 ...

Group 1: Central Enterprises in Shanghai - Shanghai is home to 7 central enterprises, including China Shipbuilding Group, China Baowu Steel Group, and China Ocean Shipping Group, which have significant contributions to their respective industries [3][4][7][9]. - China Shipbuilding Group has a registered capital of 110 billion yuan, employs 347,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 361.9 billion yuan [3]. - China Baowu Steel Group has a registered capital of 52.791 billion yuan, employs 260,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 1,087.7 billion yuan [4]. - China Ocean Shipping Group has a registered capital of 11 billion yuan, employs 130,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 651.7 billion yuan [7]. - China Eastern Airlines Group has a registered capital of 25.287 billion yuan, employs 75,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 84 billion yuan [9]. - Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China has a registered capital of 50.101 billion yuan, employs 10,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 10.5 billion yuan [11]. - China Electrical Equipment Group has a registered capital of 30 billion yuan, employs 15,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 100 billion yuan [13]. - Bank of Communications, the first state-owned commercial bank, has a registered capital of 74.2 billion yuan, employs 90,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 403.9 billion yuan [15]. Group 2: Other State-Owned Enterprises in Shanghai - Shanghai hosts 45 state-owned enterprises, with notable examples including Shanghai International Group, Shanghai Guosheng Group, and Shanghai Shentong Metro Group [17]. - Shanghai International Group has a registered capital of 30 billion yuan, employs 15,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 725 million yuan [17]. - Shanghai Guosheng Group has a registered capital of 20.066 billion yuan, employs 5,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 1 billion yuan [17]. - Shanghai Shentong Metro Group has a registered capital of 290 million yuan, employs 15,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 402 million yuan [17]. - China Pacific Insurance Group has a registered capital of 9.62 billion yuan, employs 110,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 455 billion yuan [17]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank has a registered capital of 29.352 billion yuan, employs 59,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 173.434 billion yuan [17]. - Guotai Junan Securities, one of China's largest securities firms, has a registered capital of 8.905 billion yuan, employs 14,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 35.471 billion yuan [17]. - Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation has a registered capital of 11.575 billion yuan, employs 200,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 744 billion yuan [17]. - Shanghai Electric Group has a registered capital of 15.579 billion yuan, employs 29,000 people, and has an annual revenue of 117.6 billion yuan [17]. - Shanghai Huayi Group has a registered capital of 12.131 billion yuan, employs 11,600 people, and has an annual revenue of 38.937 billion yuan [17].

根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安期货，总持仓38974、中信期货，总持仓34281、中信建投，总持仓25533；空头前三 席位为国泰君安期货，总持仓46927、永安期货，总持仓46177、浙商期货，总持仓35277； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：南华期货、持仓3971、增仓340，华泰期货、持仓7303、增仓282，渤海期货、持 仓3155、增仓238；多头减仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓11152、减仓-8150，国泰君安期货、持仓25901、减仓-3352，一德期 货、持仓3851、减仓-3153； 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月30日收盘主力合约工业硅2509,涨跌+2.20%,成交量60.52万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为35730手。 工业硅期货全合约总计成交105.56万手，比上一日新增3.81万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓36.23万手，比上一日减少1.16万手。全 合约前20席位空头持仓42.90万手，比上一日减少6891手。 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | | 会员 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually reach a bottom, with supply-side adjustments beginning to emerge, and potential government policies could accelerate this process [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Analysis - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.6813 million tons last week, a decrease of 19,800 tons week-on-week; however, total inventory remains at a near historical low of 13.365 million tons, down 11,600 tons [2] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates increased by 3.21 percentage points to 62.18% [2] - The demand from the real estate sector is declining, but the negative impact on overall demand is expected to weaken gradually, with stable growth anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors [4] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar increased to 330.1 CNY, up 131.5 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit rose to 244.1 CNY, an increase of 113.5 CNY [3] - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies rose to 63.64%, an increase of 3.47% week-on-week, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to gradually stabilize in demand, with a projected increase in supply-side adjustments if government policies are implemented [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce plans to promote structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity in key industries, including steel [4]