Core Insights - The A-share market is expected to gradually recover by 2025, leading to significant improvements in the IPO business for securities firms, although a profound industry shift is underway with a reshuffling among leading firms and a rational return to underwriting fee models [1][4]. Group 1: IPO Underwriting Performance - In 2025, the total IPO underwriting amount by 34 securities firms reached 1250.44 billion, nearly doubling compared to 2024's 673.53 billion, although it remains about one-third of 2023's total of 3556.37 billion [5][6]. - The top ten securities firms in IPO underwriting saw significant growth, with the lowest increase being 78.36%, while firms ranked seventh to tenth did not achieve the same growth [6][7]. - CITIC Securities led the underwriting amount in 2025 with 234.69 billion, followed by Guotai Haitong at 190.30 billion, indicating a substantial gap between the top two firms [11][12]. Group 2: Changes in Industry Dynamics - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities created a "giant" that surpassed CITIC Securities in the number of underwritings but still lags in underwriting amount and income [2][9]. - CICC's IPO underwriting amount surged nearly threefold to 138.05 billion, marking a significant return to the top five, reflecting a competitive landscape among leading firms [3][8]. - The high-profit era for investment banks is over, with a more rational fee structure and a balanced business layout emerging in the industry [4][15]. Group 3: Underwriting Fees and Revenue - The underwriting fees have significantly decreased, with a large project raising over 3 billion potentially yielding only 50 million in fees, contrasting sharply with previous standards [3][15]. - CITIC Securities reported an underwriting and sponsorship income of 11.36 billion, exceeding Guotai Haitong's 9.76 billion by 1.6 billion, highlighting the income disparity between the two firms [13][14]. - The trend of lower fees is attributed to various factors, including reduced project numbers, lower fundraising scales, and regulatory guidance aimed at lowering costs for companies [17].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the macro asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, recommending commodities > equities > bonds [1] Equities - CITIC Securities forecasts a 5%-10% annual increase for the Wind All A-share index in 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a performance bottom rebound and a second round of valuation recovery, referred to as a "Davis Double-Click" market [1] - US stocks are likely to maintain fundamental growth momentum under a backdrop of "fiscal + monetary" easing during the mid-term election year [1] Bonds - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is projected to fluctuate within a range of 1.5%-1.8%, with a pattern of initially declining and then rising [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to remain within a range of 3.9%-4.3% [1] Commodities - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel throughout the year [1] - Gold is anticipated to maintain strength supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with a potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the rate of increase may slow [1] - Copper is expected to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an average price forecasted to rise to $12,000 per ton [1] Currency - The Chinese yuan is likely entering a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate expected to gradually approach 6.8 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the macro asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, recommending commodities over stocks and bonds [1] Group 1: Equity Market - The report anticipates a 5%-10% increase in the annual performance of the Wind All A index for 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a rebound in earnings and a second round of valuation recovery, leading to a "Davis Double" market scenario [1] - The US stock market is projected to maintain fundamental growth momentum under a backdrop of "fiscal + monetary" easing during the midterm election year [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The 10-year China government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.5%-1.8% for the year, with a pattern of initially declining and then rising [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is likely to remain within a range of 3.9%-4.3% [1] Group 3: Commodity Market - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel throughout the year [1] - Gold is expected to maintain strength due to liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with a potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the rate of increase may slow [1] - Copper is anticipated to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an expected average price increase to $12,000 per ton [1] Group 4: Currency Market - The Chinese yuan is likely entering a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate expected to gradually approach 6.8 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted the "prominent contradiction between strong supply and weak demand" in its monetary policy committee meeting, indicating that supply-side adjustments may be a focus for future policy efforts [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The meeting introduced a new emphasis on cross-cycle adjustments, suggesting that future policy priorities may shift towards long-term institutional reforms [1] - The statement regarding cost reduction emphasized "promoting the low-level operation of comprehensive financing costs," indicating a focus on maintaining low financing costs rather than immediate operational measures [1] - The meeting omitted references to preventing fund diversion and guiding financial institutions to increase monetary credit, reflecting a continued trend of downplaying quantitative targets by the central bank [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts a marginally loose liquidity environment and moderate economic recovery in 2026, recommending commodities over stocks and bonds [1] Group 1: A-shares - The expected annual increase for the Wind All A index is between 5% and 10% [2] - The net profit growth for listed companies in 2026 is projected at 4.8%, with price pressures on profits expected to ease gradually [2] - Structural opportunities may become the norm, with a "low volatility, slow bull" market anticipated, driven by absolute return funds [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Stocks - A rebound in performance and a second round of valuation recovery are expected for Hong Kong stocks [3] - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic PE is currently at 11.3 times, indicating a valuation gap [3] - Estimated net profit growth for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech in 2026 is 6.7% and 24.3%, respectively [3] Group 3: US Stocks - The dual easing of fiscal and monetary policy in the midterm election year is expected to sustain growth momentum [4] - Projected net profit growth for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and MAG 8 is 15.6%, 20.0%, and 24.5%, respectively [4] - The potential for a significant increase in stock buybacks due to lower interest rates and tax cuts is noted [5] Group 4: Bonds - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is expected to range from 1.5% to 1.8% in 2026, with a downward trend initially [6] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to fluctuate between 3.9% and 4.3% [7] Group 5: Commodities - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel, transitioning from oversupply to balance [11] - Gold prices may reach $5,000 per ounce, supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks [12] - Copper prices are projected to rise to $12,000 per ton due to supply constraints and demand from the power sector [13] Group 6: Currency - The RMB is expected to enter a mild appreciation cycle, with the USD/CNY exchange rate gradually approaching 6.8 [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the new energy sector is expected to see significant improvement in fundamentals by 2026, driven by domestic systematic upgrades and increased overseas demand, with a focus on energy storage, wind power, high-quality development in photovoltaics, and new growth opportunities in green fuels [1] Group 1: New Energy Development - New energy development is transitioning from "quantity accumulation" to "quality leap" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with wind and solar power becoming the mainstay of energy supply [2] - The 15th Five-Year Plan is crucial for achieving carbon peak by 2030 and building a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system, with structural optimization expected in various aspects [2] Group 2: Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50% globally from 2025 to 2027, driven by market-driven demand and improved commercial models [3] - The domestic energy storage industry is well-positioned with a complete supply chain, and Chinese manufacturers are likely to benefit from rising standards and profitability [3] Group 3: Wind Power - Domestic wind power is anticipated to grow steadily due to high returns and favorable grid integration, while international support for wind energy is expected to align growth trends [4] - The wind turbine sector is projected to recover prices and profit margins, with opportunities for global market expansion [4] Group 4: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector may face pressure in domestic installations by 2026, with a potential global installation decline of 5%-10% to 520-550 GW, although emerging markets remain vibrant [5] - New technologies such as high-efficiency silicon batteries and perovskite materials are expected to drive long-term growth in the photovoltaic industry [6] Group 5: Green Fuels - The green fuel market, including green alcohol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is poised for significant growth, potentially reaching a market size of trillions by 2030 [7] - The domestic green fuel industry benefits from abundant renewable energy resources and a complete supply chain, facilitating the transition from demonstration to commercial operation [7]

【中信证券：流动性宽松预期下金价有望延续涨势 2026年或冲击5000美元/盎司】智通财经12月26日 电，中信证券研报指出，2026年金价有望继续受益于美联储降息带来的流动性宽松氛围，全球黄金ETF 流入将作为黄金的重要买盘。潜在的地缘政治风险和贸易冲突引发的避险情绪将继续支撑金价，去美元 化、央行购金等长期趋势构成金价上涨的坚实基础，我们预计2026年金价将再创新高，但考虑到2025年 金价涨幅显著，且上述因素已部分在金价中兑现，我们预计2026年金价涨幅或收窄至10%-15%，全年价 格或冲击5000美元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities predicts that the yield center for China's 10-year government bonds will decrease by 10 basis points in 2026, maintaining a fluctuation range of around 30 basis points, compared to the 1.6%-1.9% range expected for 2025 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central economic work conference continues to signal a moderately loose monetary policy, with an expected policy rate reduction of about 10 basis points [1] - The central bank's report in Q3 2025 emphasizes maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships, suggesting that the decrease in the 10-year government bond yield center will align with policy rate adjustments [1] Group 2: Market Volatility - Interest rate bonds are expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" pattern, with anticipated fluctuation levels similar to those in 2025 [1] - Factors such as changes in central bank operations, the stock-bond seesaw effect, and regulatory uncertainties significantly amplified interest rate volatility in 2025, and these disturbances are not fully resolved for 2026 [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The interest rate is expected to exhibit a "two-phase" characteristic: a downward trend from the beginning of the year to mid-year due to anticipated policy easing, followed by potential upward pressure in the latter half of the year as inflation rebounds and local government debt issues are resolved [1]

中信证券指出，2026年金价有望继续受益于美联储降息带来的流动性宽松氛围，全球黄金ETF流入将作 为黄金的重要买盘。潜在的地缘政治风险和贸易冲突引发的避险情绪将继续支撑金价，去美元化、央行 购金等长期趋势构成金价上涨的坚实基础，我们预计2026年金价将再创新高，但考虑到2025年金价涨幅 显著，且上述因素已部分在金价中兑现，我们预计2026年金价涨幅或收窄至10%-15%，全年价格或冲击 5000美元/盎司。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that since mid-November, the volatility of ultra-long bond rates has increased, which has suppressed banks' willingness to allocate ultra-long bonds due to factors such as long-term liability gaps and seasonal liquidity assessments [1] - It is anticipated that the fiscal stimulus pace next year will be relatively balanced, leading to a situation where the actual yield of ultra-long bonds on the asset side of commercial banks remains relatively attractive [1] - On the liability side, the pressure is alleviated under the long-term impact of the central bank's monetary policy framework reform, suggesting that ultra-long bonds still possess certain cost-effectiveness for allocation in the long run [1]