Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally driven by liquidity, policy expectations, and structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and non-bank financials [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with communication and non-ferrous metals being traditional favorites, while new themes like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [3]. - The A-share market is showing signs of a spring rally, supported by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [5][10]. - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to favorable conditions, including a weak dollar and the upcoming Chinese New Year and Two Sessions [11][16]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from structural changes and increased demand [10][12]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery, is showing signs of recovery and is expected to benefit from the shift in global competition [3][4]. - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are positioned to benefit from the anticipated capital inflows and improved asset returns [9][12]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower import costs and enhance domestic purchasing power, benefiting sectors reliant on imports and domestic consumption [7][9]. - The potential for significant capital inflows due to RMB appreciation could lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, creating a favorable environment for investment [7][9]. - The overall economic environment is improving, with expectations of continued liquidity support and a stable policy backdrop, which is conducive to market growth [5][10].

转自：证券时报 人民财讯12月28日电，中信建投研报称，从月度数据与市场表现来看，跨年行情或呈现"成长先行、白 酒蓄力"的鲜明特征。当前市场资金更倾向于布局零食、乳业等景气度明确、弹性更高的赛道，这类板 块在政策支持与产业趋势共振下，月度数据持续改善，成为跨年行情的核心驱动力。而白酒板块则处 于"磨底蓄力"阶段，随着春节临近，终端备货需求逐步启动，近期头部酒企批价企稳、库存回落的边际 变化已开始显现，预计春节后随着消费场景修复与需求集中释放，白酒将迎来估值修复行情。 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Insights - The cross-year market trend is characterized by "growth leading, liquor accumulating," with funds favoring sectors like snacks and dairy that show clear momentum and higher elasticity, driven by policy support and industry trends [1][3] - The liquor sector is in a "bottoming accumulation" phase, with demand for inventory preparation increasing as the Spring Festival approaches, indicating a potential valuation recovery post-holiday [1][3] Group 2: Liquor Industry Developments - Major liquor companies such as Gujing Gongjiu, Xijiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are signaling positive developments, revealing strategic plans and annual results amidst industry adjustments and high inventory levels [1][2] - Gujing Gongjiu aims to optimize product structure and expand growth through new product launches and enhanced market strategies, while Xijiu reported a stable sales figure of approximately 19 billion yuan for the year, with significant inventory reduction [2][6] - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on digital transformation and strategic upgrades, targeting younger consumers and enhancing brand value while maintaining price stability for its flagship product [2][8] Group 3: Performance Forecasts - As the 2025 annual report forecast period approaches, certain food and beverage sectors are expected to exceed performance expectations due to differentiated advantages, despite short-term revenue growth slowdowns [4] - The liquor sector is anticipated to see improved performance due to inventory control and channel optimization, while segments like prepared dishes and functional snacks are benefiting from consumer recovery and product upgrades [4] Group 4: Catalysts for Future Growth - Multiple catalysts are expected to drive better-than-expected Q1 results starting from late January, including the peak sales season for liquor companies during the Spring Festival and improved data from various consumer goods sectors [5] - The food and beverage sector is currently at historical low valuations, suggesting potential for significant upward movement as market sentiment improves [5] Group 5: Dairy and Processed Food Insights - The dairy processing industry is set to benefit from temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy products, accelerating domestic processing and improving profit margins for upstream dairy producers [10] - The average price of raw milk has shown signs of stabilization, indicating a potential turning point for the dairy market in 2026 [10] Group 6: Snack and Beverage Sector Dynamics - As the Spring Festival approaches, snack companies are preparing for a peak sales season, with expectations for strong performance in Q1 due to extended inventory and sales timelines [12][13] - The beverage industry is currently focused on inventory reduction, with a more favorable competitive environment anticipated as seasonal activities ramp up [13]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid appreciation of the RMB is significantly influenced by currency settlement, similar to the situation in July-August this year. The previous three years of bearish sentiment towards the RMB and bullish sentiment towards the USD have led to capital being trapped overseas. This year, as US assets weaken and Chinese assets strengthen, this trapped capital is reversing through currency settlement, driving the RMB's appreciation. The trend of RMB appreciation is expected to continue, with a high probability of breaking the 7 mark, although short-term pressures from currency settlement will ease after the settlement window closes [1][2][3]. Group 1 - The RMB's appreciation this year is a reversal of the depreciation experienced over the past three years, which was largely unexpected by the market. The RMB has approached the 7 mark against the USD [5][30]. - The depreciation of the RMB in previous years was primarily due to the stronger performance of US assets from 2022 to 2024, driven by significant fiscal stimulus and an AI industrial revolution in the US, while other major economies struggled with high inflation [6][31]. - The second reason for the RMB's depreciation was the persistent weakness in China's real estate sector, which suppressed domestic demand and led to a long-term bearish narrative around the economy [7][8][32]. Group 2 - By 2025, the factors that previously led to the RMB's weakness are expected to reverse. The USD is projected to weaken against all major currencies, indicating a decline in global confidence in US assets [10][35]. - The negative impact of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to stabilize by 2025, contributing to a more favorable outlook for the RMB [10][35]. - The strong performance of Chinese exports and the emergence of technological advantages are expected to further enhance the RMB's appreciation momentum [10][35]. Group 3 - The reversal of depreciation expectations is linked to the RMB starting to price in "Chinese advantages," particularly in technology and manufacturing [38][41]. - In 2025, significant changes in asset performance are anticipated, with precious metals and Chinese tech stocks expected to outperform other major assets, reflecting a shift in global economic dynamics [39][40]. - The weakening of the USD is attributed to concerns over US credit and technology, while the RMB's strength is supported by China's robust manufacturing capabilities and the resilience of its supply chains [16][41]. Group 4 - The future outlook for the RMB suggests a systematic re-evaluation of its exchange rate amid the construction of a new global order, driven by China's role in the global manufacturing system and technological leadership [44][46]. - The RMB is expected to undergo a second re-evaluation as it moves away from the negative impacts of the "old economy," with a focus on balancing domestic demand [47]. - In the short term, the RMB should maintain moderate stability, as uncertainties in global conditions and the domestic economy persist [22][27][48].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is pivotal for gold, with significant price increases and central bank gold reserves reaching 36,000 tons, valued over $4 trillion, surpassing euro reserves and approaching dollar levels [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks have become significant players in the gold market, with their purchasing behavior reflecting strategic needs amid global political instability [2][3]. - The World Gold Council's data does not fully capture the extent of central bank gold purchases, indicating a need for more comprehensive research [2][3]. - Central banks primarily acquire gold through four channels: OTC market purchases, local production, transactions with the IMF, and potentially through gold ETFs [7][10][44]. Group 2: Gold Storage and Management - Global gold storage is managed through a diverse system involving central banks, commercial banks, and specialized custodians [12][46]. - Two main operational models for gold storage exist: internal (self-managed by central banks) and external (outsourced to third-party custodians) [47][48]. - The three major pillars of global central bank gold custody are the New York Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) [52][58]. Group 3: Storage Strategies and Motivations - Central banks employ three primary storage strategies: domestic storage emphasizing sovereignty and security, a mixed domestic and foreign storage approach, and non-disclosure of storage locations [61][62][66]. - Countries like China and the U.S. predominantly store their gold domestically, while others, such as Germany and Belgium, utilize a mixed approach due to historical and logistical reasons [63][65]. - Many nations opt for secrecy regarding their gold storage details to mitigate geopolitical risks and maintain market stability [66].

Group 1: Economic Impact and Market Trends - The return of the La Niña phenomenon is expected to disrupt global agricultural supply chains, potentially leading to economic losses of several hundred billion dollars [2][7] - In 2025, the U.S. stock market saw significant gains across major indices, driven by AI-themed trading, with predictions of a further 20% increase in technology stocks in 2026 [3][8] - The high-end residential market in China experienced a unique trend in 2025, with notable sales such as the Shanghai project selling 64 units for a total of 40.25 billion yuan, although a rational return in transactions is anticipated for 2026 [4][9] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Two employees from CITIC Securities were sentenced for bribery, with one receiving a 10-year and 2-month sentence and the other a 10-year and 6-month sentence [2][7] - Shengyuan Environmental Protection reported a significant loss of 81.54% on a 60 million yuan investment in a private equity product, which may impact its 2025 financial performance [2][7] - Baihua Pharmaceutical is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock trading [3][9] - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been launched, expected to reach a scale of one trillion yuan, aimed at increasing investment in emerging industries [5][9]

Core Viewpoint - Over 80% of public REITs products experienced an increase this week, with the China Securities REITs Total Return Index rising by 1.56% from December 22 to 26, 2023 [2][5] Market Performance - The China Securities REITs Total Return Index saw a slight decline of 0.18% on December 26, closing at 1014.80 points. During the week, 67 out of 79 listed public REITs recorded a rise, with the highest increase being 7.86% for the Zhongjin Chongqing Liangjiang REIT [5][6] - The top-performing REITs included Zhongjin Chongqing Liangjiang REIT (7.86%), Huaxia Fund Huayun REIT (5.99%), and Bosera Jinkai Industrial Park REIT (5.94%). Conversely, 10 products experienced declines, with one falling over 5% [5][6] New Developments - The highly anticipated Xinjiang first hydropower REIT, Huaxia Zhongke Clean Energy REIT, successfully concluded its issuance, attracting over 1616 billion yuan in subscription funds, with a public investor subscription multiple of approximately 392 times [3][8][9] - The underlying asset of Huaxia Zhongke Clean Energy REIT is the Bopona Hydropower Station, the largest in the Hotan region, which has maintained stable revenue and power generation for over 14 years [9] Market Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent price fluctuations in the public REITs market are largely unrelated to the underlying fundamentals, but rather influenced by discussions surrounding the accounting treatment of OCI principal and interest [5][7] - The market is still in a policy dividend period, and it is recommended to gradually focus on low-priced opportunities in relatively stable projects [7]

Core Viewpoint - The investment banking sector is currently facing significant scrutiny and legal repercussions, highlighted by the recent sentencing of two senior executives from CITIC Securities for corruption-related offenses, indicating a broader trend of increased regulatory oversight in the financial industry [3][4][5]. Group 1: Cases of Corruption - CITIC Securities has seen two of its senior executives, Du Pengfei and Fang Beibei, sentenced to over 10 years in prison for corruption, with Du receiving a sentence of 10 years and 2 months for accepting bribes totaling 410.64 million yuan, while Fang was sentenced to 10 years and 6 months for receiving 540 million yuan in kickbacks [4][6][23]. - Fang Beibei, known as the "first beauty of investment banking," was involved in a bond issuance case where she facilitated the concealment of issues faced by the issuer, leading to her conviction for bribery [6][18]. - Du Pengfei's case involved a scheme where he received bribes through stock holdings related to an IPO project, which he helped to misrepresent to the public [25][26]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The recent cases reflect a significant shift in the regulatory landscape, with the financial sector facing heightened scrutiny and enforcement actions against corruption, particularly in state-owned financial institutions [28][32]. - The classification of certain investment banking roles as "state workers" has led to more severe penalties under the law, with the threshold for sentencing being lower for those deemed to be in public service [19][20]. - The ongoing investigations and legal actions against various financial institutions, including Postal Savings Bank, indicate that no entity in the financial sector is immune from regulatory oversight [33][34].

Core Insights - The bond underwriting business of CITIC Securities has shown strong momentum, with a cumulative underwriting scale exceeding 7.4 trillion yuan and over 18,500 bonds since 2021, ranking among the top two in the industry for five consecutive years [1] - The company has provided bond financing services to over 2,200 enterprises, covering various market entities including state-owned, private, and innovative companies [1] Group 1: Business Structure and Service Capability - CITIC Securities has demonstrated a multi-layered and comprehensive approach in serving the real economy and national strategies, with a cumulative underwriting scale of over 2.3 trillion yuan in the industrial bond sector, primarily funding strategic industries such as high-end manufacturing and green low-carbon technologies [2] - The company has ranked first in the market for asset securitization, with significant projects in renewable energy and infrastructure, including the first public REITs for central enterprises in the renewable energy sector [2] - In cross-border financing, CITIC Securities has underwritten over 700 offshore bonds, raising nearly 200 billion yuan, and has entered the top four among Chinese securities firms in Bloomberg's G3 currency underwriting rankings [2] Group 2: Focus on Innovation and Green Finance - CITIC Securities has increased its service efforts in the fields of technology innovation and green finance, leading the industry in bond underwriting for technology-themed bonds, with over 1,000 bonds and a scale exceeding 3.8 trillion yuan [3] - The company has also underwritten over 450 green-themed bonds, surpassing 2.3 trillion yuan, supporting projects in clean energy, marine economic protection, and low-carbon transitions in traditional industries [3] - The bond market has played a crucial role in expanding direct financing, optimizing financing structures, and reducing financing costs for the real economy, with CITIC Securities guiding funds towards national strategic priorities [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to further leverage its flexible terms and diverse varieties to inject more financial resources into the real economy as the construction of a financial power progresses [4]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a comprehensive upward trend in 2025, with significant recovery in market sentiment [1] - As of December 25, nearly 4,700 active equity funds were analyzed, with only 194 showing negative returns this year, while over 4,500 achieved positive returns [1][5] - A total of 83 funds reported annual returns exceeding 100%, with the top ten funds all surpassing 144% [1] - The top twenty funds over a three-year period had returns exceeding 160%, with an average return of 193% [1][5] - The worst-performing twenty funds averaged a loss of nearly 41% over the same period, highlighting a stark contrast with top performers [1][6] Fund Performance - The fund with the worst performance, Jin Ying Multi-Strategy A, recorded a loss of 47.72%, followed closely by CITIC Construction Investment Smart IoT A and Tianzhi New Consumption, both exceeding 47% losses [2][6] - Despite the overall market uptrend, ten funds still reported negative returns this year, with CITIC Construction Investment Smart Life A down 17.05% and Shenyin Wanguo Medical Pioneer A down 13.82% [7] - The underperforming funds primarily consisted of flexible allocation and equity mixed funds, many of which were themed around popular sectors like technology and new energy [7] Management and Size Analysis - CITIC Construction Investment Fund was notably affected, with four of its products appearing in the bottom twenty, managed by Zhou Ziguang, whose funds underperformed their benchmarks by over 54% [7] - Tianzhi Fund also had three products in the bottom list, with two managed by Li Shen, showing significant underperformance against benchmarks [7] - Most underperforming funds were categorized as "mini funds," with 15 having assets under 200 million yuan, and Tianzhi Transformation Upgrade nearing liquidation with only 0.03 billion yuan [3][7] Investment Style and Future Outlook - Some funds failed to manage drawdowns effectively during adjustments in sectors like new energy and healthcare, exemplified by Shenyin Wanguo Medical Biology A, which lost 38.73% over three years [8] - The future of the industry is expected to trend towards more refined and transparent fund assessment systems, with a focus on long-term performance metrics [8] - This shift aims to promote rational investment behavior and encourage fund managers to focus on long-term industry trends and corporate value, fostering sustainable benefits for investors [8]