Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains revenue projections for New Oriental-S (09901) for FY26-FY28 at $5.38 billion, $5.98 billion, and $6.73 billion, respectively, with expectations of profit margin pressure easing as the overseas study business stabilizes [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Shenwan Hongyuan expects New Oriental's revenue for 2QFY26 to reach $1.165 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [2] - The education business (including cultural tourism) is projected to generate $957 million in revenue, up 11% year-on-year, while other businesses (mainly Dongfang Zhenxuan) are expected to achieve $208 million, growing 18% year-on-year [2] - The estimated Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company for 2QFY26 is $63 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 77.8% [2] Group 2: Overseas Study Business - The overseas examination training and consulting business is expected to generate $242 million in revenue for 2QFY26, a decline of 3% year-on-year, with a slowdown in growth of 33.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The high-end one-on-one overseas examination training business faces challenges due to its premium pricing, prompting the company to adjust its model to one-to-many classes to lower costs and expand its service offerings [3] - The growth rate of the overseas study training and consulting business is anticipated to bottom out in 2QFY26 [3] Group 3: New Business Growth - New business revenue, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, is projected to grow by 21% year-on-year to $364 million in 2QFY26, driven by strong growth in non-academic competency services [4] - The company plans to enhance its product matrix by offering competency classes in elementary school and subscription services for learning machines in middle school to meet differentiated training needs [4] - The number of teaching sites is expected to increase to 1,368, a year-on-year growth of 20%, although the growth rate has slowed by 3.7 percentage points compared to 1QFY26 [4] Group 4: Operating Profit Margin - Despite the slowdown in high-margin overseas study business, the increase in competency business margins is expected to offset this impact [5] - The company is implementing measures such as workforce optimization and cost control, leading to an anticipated expansion of Non-GAAP operating profit margin by approximately 2 percentage points to 4.7% in 2QFY26 [5] - The Non-GAAP operating profit margin for the education business is projected to be 4.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points, while the margin for other businesses (mainly Dongfang Zhenxuan) is expected to be 8%, up 8.5 percentage points year-on-year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The forum focused on exploring new opportunities for green sustainable development and establishing Shanghai as an international green finance hub [1] Group 1: Role of Securities Companies - Securities companies play a crucial role as core intermediaries in capital markets, linking funds and assets, and facilitating the green transition of industries [3] - In the context of Shanghai's push to build an international green finance hub, securities firms are encouraged to integrate into strategic frameworks and strengthen their foundational services for green finance [3] Group 2: Financing Services - Over the past three years, the company has provided nearly 100 billion yuan in various financing services to green industries in the Yangtze River Delta region, successfully implementing several exemplary green finance projects [3] - In the equity financing sector, the company has supported nearly 20 green industry enterprises in raising over 20 billion yuan since 2022, focusing on sectors like renewable energy and high-end equipment manufacturing [3][4] Group 3: Debt Financing and Innovative Products - The company has tailored transformation financing solutions for traditional high-energy-consuming industries and has issued over 30 green corporate bonds and enterprise bonds, totaling nearly 40 billion yuan [4] - The company is actively involved in innovative products such as carbon-neutral ABS, green convertible bonds, and green REITs [4] Group 4: Investment and Trading - The company has established a 1 billion yuan green industry investment fund focused on clean energy and green materials, successfully investing in quality projects [4] - In the past three years, the company has achieved nearly 15 billion yuan in trading volume for green-linked derivatives and has developed various carbon finance-related products [4] Group 5: Future Directions - The company plans to enhance its financial services by focusing on product innovation, cross-border collaboration, ecosystem synergy, and talent development to support the elevation of Shanghai's international green finance hub [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains Alibaba Group's earnings forecast and buy rating, projecting revenues for FY2026-FY2028 at 1,038.6 billion, 1,143.4 billion, and 1,250.6 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 101.9 billion, 145.5 billion, and 183.6 billion RMB respectively. The SOTP valuation method yields a target valuation of 3,412.4 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 203 USD per ADS, indicating a 34% upside potential, and a target price of 197 HKD per share, also reflecting a 34% upside potential [1]. Group 1 - AI cloud growth is expected to continue, driven by improved Capex and accelerating cloud revenue trends, with domestic AI cloud fundamentals remaining positive for the coming year. Alibaba is noted for its comprehensive self-developed technology stack in cloud computing, which includes chips, servers, operating systems, and large models, positioning it among the top tier in terms of revenue scale, growth rate, and profit margins in China [2]. - The competition from ByteDance's Volcano Engine focuses on the MaaS layer, but Alibaba Cloud's advantages in full-stack solutions and ecosystem integrity are difficult to replicate in the short term. Alibaba Cloud's leadership in the broader AIIaaS and overall cloud market is supported by the demand for enterprise-wide intelligent transformation [3]. Group 2 - The domestic AI chip market is experiencing a surge in demand for localized computing power, with Alibaba's T-head chips achieving performance levels comparable to international standards and winning bids for large intelligent computing center projects. This development is crucial for Alibaba Cloud to provide differentiated computing services and enhance profit margins [4]. - Alibaba is positioning itself to capture the C-end entry point, potentially unlocking monetization opportunities. The company is enhancing its AI capabilities to transition from graphical user interfaces to natural language interfaces, integrating its ecosystem through products like the Quark AI glasses, which aim to create a seamless connection between various services [5].

Group 1 - AI Infra has become a key "seller" for application deployment, with computing scheduling being the core variable determining the profitability of model inference [1] - Domestic model token fees are significantly lower than overseas, leading to higher cost sensitivity; for instance, Alibaba's Aegaeon can reduce GPU usage by 82% through token-level scheduling [1] - The combination of generative AI and agents is accelerating penetration, with AI infra software expected to enter a high growth phase [1] Group 2 - The demand for data infrastructure is surging ahead of application explosion, with vector databases becoming a necessity; Gartner predicts that by 2025, enterprise adoption of RAG technology will reach 68% [2] - The data architecture in the AI era is shifting from "analysis-first" to "real-time operations + analysis collaboration," leading to significant changes in the industry [3] - MongoDB is well-positioned to meet the low-cost AI deployment needs of small and medium-sized clients, achieving a 30% growth rate in its core products for FY26Q3 [3] Group 3 - NVIDIA has introduced a SCADA solution that connects GPUs directly to SSDs, reducing IO latency to microsecond levels, which is crucial for vector databases to adapt to AI real-time inference needs [4] - Relevant companies in this space include MongoDB, Dameng Data, Yingfang Software, Snowflake, and Deepin Technology [5]

为更好的满足投资者的理财需求，进一步提升客户体验，根据农银汇理基金管 理有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）与申万宏源证券股份有限公司（以下简称"申万宏源"）及申万宏源西 部证券股份有限公司（以下简称申万西部）签署的代理销售协议，自2025年12月24日起，申万宏源及申 万西部新增代销农银汇理金益债券型证券投资基金（基金代码：008030），投资者通过申万宏源及申万 西部申购（包括定投）前述基金，享受费率优惠，费率折扣以前述代销机构活动为准。 代销机构信息如下： 申万宏源证券股份有限公司 公司客服电话：95523 公司网址：www.swhysc.com 申万宏源西部证券股份有限公司 特此公告。 农银汇理基金管理有限公司 2025年12月24日 农银汇理基金管理有限公司关于农银汇理创业板指数型证券投资基金提前结束募集的公告 农银汇理创业板指数型证券投资基金（以下简称"本基金"）经中国证监会证监许可【2025】2536号文注 册募集，已于2025年11月24日开始募集。 公司客服电话：95523 公司网址：www.swhysc.com 本公告仅对申万宏源及申万西部新增代销农银汇理金益债券型证券投资基金及开展费率优惠活动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Communications Administration reported that 71 apps (SDKs) were found to infringe on user rights, highlighting ongoing issues with user data protection in the app industry [1]. Group 1: Company Issues - Guoxin Futures Co., Ltd.'s app, Guoxin Futures (version 1.0.8), was flagged for illegally collecting personal information [2]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co., Ltd.'s apps, Shenwan Hongyuan (version 1.3.81) and Shenwan Hongyuan Securities (version 6.0.6), faced issues related to difficulties in account cancellation [3][4]. - Guoxin Futures is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Guoxin Securities, as indicated in its annual report [5]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan, as per its annual report [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the results of the "Third China Bond Valuation Cup - Fixed Income Quantitative Special" essay competition, emphasizing the importance of quantitative strategies in fixed income investment and risk management [1]. Group 1: Winning Essays - The first prize was awarded to the essay titled "Hedging Strategy for Government Bond Investment Portfolio Based on Synthetic Options," which introduces a practical hedging and pricing solution to improve the risk-return characteristics of government bond futures portfolios [2]. - The third prize was given to the essay "Empirical Research on Government Bond Futures Option Pricing Model and SABR Model of Volatility Surface," which supports investors in dissecting and recombining specific dimensions of risk [3][4]. Group 2: Quantitative Strategies - The fixed income foreign exchange commodity division has made significant progress in quantitative strategy research, algorithmic trading, automated market making, and the construction of quantitative analysis platforms, covering core products such as interest rate bonds, government bond futures, and interest rate swaps (IRS) [2]. - The division's quantitative strategies encompass high-frequency, medium-frequency, and low-frequency trading, gradually establishing a robust strategy system characterized by multiple products and low correlation [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The fixed income foreign exchange commodity division aims to continuously explore innovation in the quantitative and derivatives fields, building a comprehensive quantitative analysis and investment system to support high-quality development [5]. - The division emphasizes the integration of financial technology into investment research to promote the steady growth of FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities) business [5].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：申万宏源融成） 美国弱通胀+日央行鸽派加息，流动性担忧缓解 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251213-20251219) 本期投资提示： 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251212-20251219) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦美联储政策走向的博弈，美联储此前的降息与扩表操作引发通胀反弹的担忧，而 11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6% 创 2021 年以来新低，又推动市场升温 2026 年更早降息的押注，加上本周五日本央行鸽派加息，全球流动性担忧缓解，市场风 险偏好先下后上。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.16%，本周下降3BPs，美元指数上涨0.32%，当前点位为98.7；2）权益方面，本周阿根廷、越南、 欧洲股市上涨较多，而科创板、恒生指数则出现下跌，韩国、日本股市跌幅较大；3）商品方面，本周黄金上涨1.25%，在俄乌冲突缓和叠加供应过剩影 响下，原油本周下跌0.93%。 全球资金流向跟踪：截止到2025/12/17，过去一周来看，内外资均流入中国股市；海外资金主动和被动方面，海外主动基金过去一周流出3.12亿美元，而 海外被动基金过去一周流入14.67亿美元；内资和外资方 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：申万宏源策略 一、日央行鸽派加息，美联储非鹰派降息，下一任美联储主席人选必须"超级鸽派"。12月全球货币政策 关键验证期，有望平稳收官。美国中期选举年，货币 + 财政双宽重新成为主导资产定价的预期。A股面 临的海外环境可能趋于平稳。 日央行加息25基点符合预期，而后续加息的幅度和时机取决于通胀与经济的演变，日央行鸽派加息，日 元兑美元进一步贬值。套息交易退潮担忧缓解。此前，美联储降息符合预期，重启扩表早于预期，且表 述并不鹰派，叠加特朗普表示下一任美联储主席人选必须"超级鸽派"。至此，12月全球货币政策关键验 证期，资本市场大概率能平稳度过。后续，美国中期选举年，货币 + 财政双宽的中期预期，可能重新 主导资产定价。增量财政发力的窗口期，可能在美国政府关门问题解决后，2026年2月后才是观察期。 未来一段时间，A股面临的海外环境可能趋于平稳。 二、春季股市流动性仍宽松：10月高净值投资者回调增配私募；保险开门红可期，但提前博弈不足；沪 深300和A500 ETF净申购放量。春季稳定资本市场预期窗口较多：2月春节，3月两会，4月特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - On December 19, Canggang Railway (02169) shareholders transferred stocks from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Hong Kong to Ju Cheng Securities, with a transfer market value of HKD 162 million, accounting for 5.54% of the total shares [1][1]. Financial Performance - Canggang Railway reported a revenue of RMB 132 million for the mid-term of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1]. - The company's profit attributable to equity shareholders was RMB 30.878 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [1]. - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.80 cents [1].