Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The social services sector is showing resilience during the off-peak season, supported by fundamental data and a shift in funding styles, creating conditions for relative returns across industries [4]. - Key areas of focus include mid-cap blue-chip characteristics, growth potential, and recovery prospects in performance, particularly in OTA, hotels, human resources, and select dining and scenic spots [4]. Summary by Sections Hotels - The hotel sector demonstrates strong fundamentals with a recovery in performance. Huazhu reported a revenue of 7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing previous growth guidance [8]. - The national hotel RevPAR turned positive in October 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating a stable volume and rising prices [8]. Scenic Spots - The demand for scenic spots remains robust due to the autumn holiday and the upcoming winter season, with double-digit growth in visitor numbers reported [8]. - For instance, the Jianmen Pass scenic area saw a 30% increase in visitors during the autumn holiday, and hotel bookings in Zhejiang rose by 68% [8]. Duty-Free - The duty-free shopping scene in Hainan is recovering, with sales reaching 506 million yuan from November 1-7, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.86% [8]. - This recovery is attributed to low base effects, new policies, and promotional activities, alongside a shift in consumer behavior due to international travel restrictions [8]. OTA (Online Travel Agencies) - Ctrip's Q3 2025 report showed a net operating income of 18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 16% [8]. - The international OTA orders grew by about 60%, with inbound travel orders doubling, indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel demand [8].

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, significantly above the expected 50,000, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.4% [7] Industry and Company - In the restaurant industry, the report recommends leading companies in the hot pot sector, noting that in October 2025, the A-share, H-share, and U.S. stock markets saw significant gains for several chain restaurants, particularly Guoquan, which projected a revenue increase of 13.6%-25.8% for Q3 2025 [3][8] - The report indicates that the overall restaurant revenue in China increased by 3.8% year-on-year in October, with the CPI showing a slight increase due to holiday effects and domestic demand policies [8] - The report tracks the expansion of coffee brands, with notable growth in the coffee sector, particularly for brands like Nuo Wa, which saw significant store openings [9] - For the home appliance industry, October sales were under pressure, with a 15% decline in retail sales of home appliances, and a 13% drop in export value [13][14] - The report notes that in October, air conditioning sales fell by 20.1%, with expectations of continued pressure on production in December [15] - In the automotive sector, XPeng Motors reported a 149% year-on-year increase in sales for Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 20.4 billion yuan, marking a 102% increase [19][20] - The report highlights that NVIDIA's revenue for Q3 reached $57 billion, a 62% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand in data centers and gaming [25][26] - NetEase's revenue for Q3 increased by 8% year-on-year, with deferred revenue growing by 25%, indicating strong long-term operational capabilities [28][30] - Huazhu Group's Q3 revenue grew by 17.5% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding its membership base and improving revenue management [31][32] - Ctrip's Q3 revenue increased by 15.5% year-on-year, with a significant contribution from the sale of Makemytrip, indicating strong performance in the travel sector [34]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,912.60, up by 196.10 points or 0.76% on November 24, 2023, indicating a positive market sentiment with several large-cap stocks showing gains [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The HSI reached a high of 25,933.69 and a low of 25,726.96 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 58.746 million shares [1]. - The index has a 52-week high of 27,275.90 and a low of 18,856.77, reflecting significant volatility over the past year [1]. Group 2: Major Stock Movements - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 107.330, up by 0.03% compared to the previous close [2]. - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 629.114, reflecting an increase of 0.74% from the last trading session [2]. - Alibaba Group saw a notable increase of 4.67%, closing at HKD 154.500 [3]. - Other significant gainers included NetEase, which rose by 5.87%, and Kuaishou, which increased by 7.11% [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance in Q3, with revenue growth of 15.5% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of 14.6% [11] - The Non-GAAP net profit increased significantly by 221.2% to 191.56 billion yuan, primarily due to the sale of a stake in Makemytrip [11] - The adjusted EBITDA related to the main business was 63.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.7% increase, which also exceeded expectations [11] Revenue Breakdown - The company's accommodation booking revenue reached 80.5 billion yuan, up 18.3%, while transportation ticketing revenue was 63.1 billion yuan, up 11.6% [12] - International platform revenue is expected to grow by 40%, with Trip.com platform hotel and flight bookings increasing over 60% [12] - Domestic revenue is estimated to have grown about 10%, with hotel night stays maintaining a growth rate of 15% [12] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to structural impacts from the growth of Trip.com [13] - The operating profit margin (OPM) for the first three quarters showed a gradual improvement in the decline rate, indicating operational efficiency [13] - The company is expected to maintain a total revenue growth rate of over 15% despite short-term fluctuations in international travel [14] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of 318 billion yuan in 2025, with a dynamic PE ratio of 11x [14] - Revenue forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: 61.86 billion yuan in 2025, 71.40 billion yuan in 2026, and 82.24 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [5][15]

Group 1 - Ctrip Group and the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency have announced a deepened strategic partnership to promote Turkey as a "super destination" for global tourists [1] - Ctrip's data indicates that inbound flight bookings to Turkey are expected to grow by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while hotel bookings are projected to increase by 16% [1] - Major source markets for Turkey include the UK, Germany, and China, with Indonesia showing remarkable growth in bookings, up 178% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - In Q3, Ctrip's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20%, outperforming market trends [1] - Popular outbound destinations include Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with Europe, particularly Iceland and Norway, showing significant booking increases [1] - Ctrip's overall accommodation booking revenue in Q3 grew by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand during summer and the National Day holiday [1] Group 3 - The company's international business saw a total booking volume growth of approximately 60% in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining a key focus [1] - The Trip.com app experienced a 69% year-on-year growth in monthly active users globally (excluding mainland China) during October and November, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [1] - Domestic hotel prices showed signs of stabilization, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in Q3, and a rising trend during the Golden Week [1] Group 4 - Ctrip's adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion, maintaining projections of 20 billion and 22 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively [2] - The adjusted PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 11, 17, and 16 times, respectively, reflecting confidence in the company's overseas business growth [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the hotel and duty-free industries, indicating a positive outlook for operational improvements in these sectors [1]. Core Viewpoints - Despite the overall pressure on consumption in the current macro environment, a structural recovery trend in certain consumer service sectors is becoming increasingly evident. Operational improvements are being observed, suggesting a gradual exit from the bottom range [4]. - The hotel industry is experiencing an optimization in supply-demand dynamics, with core operational data showing marginal improvements, indicating a mild upward trend in industry prosperity supported by sustained travel demand [4]. - The duty-free industry is expected to benefit from policy incentives, particularly with the upcoming operational phase in Hainan and the continued rollout of related policies, which are anticipated to catalyze new growth opportunities [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 4.86% this week, while the overall A-share market fell by 5.14%. The CSI 300 index decreased by 3.77% [7][23]. - Notable stocks in the consumer services sector that performed well include Dalian Shengya, Chuangye Heima, and Shangri-La (Asia) [4]. Important Announcements - Huazhu Group reported a 17.5% year-on-year increase in hotel revenue for Q3 2025, reaching 30.6 billion yuan, with net profit of 1.5 billion yuan [30]. - Ctrip Group's Q3 net operating revenue was approximately 18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth, with a net profit increase of 192.6% [30]. - Wanwu Xingsheng achieved a total revenue of 5.15 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 27.1% year-on-year increase [30]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in the coming month, including Bubu Gao on December 11, Guilin Tourism on December 5, and Guangzhou Restaurant on November 28 [31].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com Group (09961), highlighting strong growth potential in its overseas business and an upward revision of the adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion yuan [1] Recent Events - Trip.com has deepened its strategic partnership with the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency, aiming to position Turkey as a "super destination" for global travelers. Data shows that inbound flight bookings to Turkey are expected to grow by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with hotel bookings increasing by 16%. Notably, Indonesia's booking volume surged by 178% year-on-year, contributing to the rising popularity of inbound tourism in Turkey [1] International Business Growth - Outbound travel: In Q3, Trip.com's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%. During the Golden Week, bookings grew by approximately 30%. Popular destinations include Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with Europe showing significant growth, particularly in Iceland and Norway. Despite a decrease in cross-border flight prices compared to last year, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, while hotel prices have stabilized [2] - International business: Q3 saw a 60% year-on-year increase in total bookings on Trip.com, with the Asia-Pacific region being a key operational focus, growing over 50%. New markets in the Middle East and Europe also showed impressive growth. The company has achieved rapid market share growth and plans to continue investing globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Sensor Tower data, the Trip.com app's monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China grew by 69% year-on-year, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [2] Domestic Market Trends - Domestic hotel prices have shown signs of stabilization, with Q3 overall accommodation booking revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand, particularly during the summer and National Day holidays. There is a diverse and growing demand for unique and immersive travel experiences among domestic consumers, with increased bookings in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and even remote areas. Hotel price declines narrowed to low single digits in Q3, with an upward trend during the Golden Week. Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com increased by over 100% year-on-year in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as the main source market, alongside strong growth from Europe and the United States [3]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com Group (09961), highlighting strong growth potential in its overseas business and an upward revision of adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion RMB [1] Recent Events - Trip.com Group has deepened its strategic partnership with the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency, aiming to position Turkey as a "super destination" for global travelers. Data shows that inbound flight bookings to Turkey increased by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with hotel bookings up by 16%. Notably, Indonesia's bookings surged by 178% year-on-year, contributing to the rising popularity of inbound tourism in Turkey [1] International Business Growth - Outbound travel: In Q3, Trip.com's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20%. During the Golden Week, bookings increased by approximately 30%. Popular destinations included Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with significant growth in Europe, particularly in Iceland and Norway. Despite a decrease in cross-border flight prices compared to last year, prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, while hotel prices remained stable [2] - International business: Trip.com reported a 60% year-on-year increase in total bookings in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as a key operational focus, growing over 50%. New markets in the Middle East and Europe also showed impressive growth. The company has achieved rapid market share growth and plans to continue investing globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Sensor Tower data, the Trip.com app's monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China grew by 69% year-on-year, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [2] Domestic Market Performance - Domestic hotel prices have shown signs of stabilization, with Q3 overall accommodation booking revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand, particularly during the summer and National Day holiday. There is a growing diversity in tourism demand, with increased bookings in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, as well as in remote areas. Hotel price declines narrowed to low single digits in Q3, with an upward trend during the Golden Week. Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com increased by over 100% year-on-year in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as the main source market, alongside strong growth from Europe and the U.S. [3]

Summary of Ctrip Group's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ctrip Group (携程集团) - **Date**: November 21, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Ctrip's domestic and outbound tourism is entering a low season, while overseas tourism is entering a peak season, with Trip.com’s revenue share expected to rise from 13% in Q3 to 17-18% in Q4, indicating a seasonal revenue structure change [2][5] - The company has not been significantly impacted by new competitors due to rational competition post-pandemic, with brands focusing on core positioning and customer loyalty rather than price wars [2][6] - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels has shown signs of recovery, with a 15% increase in domestic hotel bookings in Q3 and a return to 2019 levels for outbound travel bookings [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, domestic market performance was strong, particularly in leisure travel, with a 10% growth rate maintained in the first two months of Q4 [3] - Trip.com is expected to maintain over 50% growth in Q4, despite a high base from the previous year, with hotel business growth exceeding 40% of total revenue [3][4] AI Integration and Technology - Ctrip is implementing an "AI everywhere" strategy, integrating AI into its app for customer service, sales optimization, and user experience enhancement [2][7] - The company is developing an AI itinerary planning assistant that generates travel recommendations based on user inputs, aiming to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement [8][10] Revenue Structure and Commission Rates - Ctrip has no immediate plans to adjust commission rates for domestic or outbound businesses, focusing instead on market share growth [4][11] - Future commission rate increases may occur for Trip.com, currently at 8-9%, as the company prioritizes market share over immediate profitability [11] Market Recovery and Competition - The APAC market is recovering rapidly, with capacity restored to 90%, and Ctrip expects to capture more market share as some overseas OTAs have not returned to the Chinese market [13][15] - The company is focusing on high-value markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, where it has achieved profitability and is shifting marketing strategies from brand advertising to performance-based advertising [17][18] Challenges and Strategic Responses - Recent events in Japan have led to increased order cancellations, but Ctrip is adapting by promoting alternative destinations and monitoring travel trends [12] - The company is aware of the unique competitive landscape in Japan and Korea, where local OTAs dominate, and is adjusting its strategies accordingly [22][23] Future Outlook - Ctrip plans to maintain its marketing budget at current levels, with no immediate expansion expected, while anticipating a stable loss rate in 2026 [26][27] - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, particularly in the APAC region, and aims to leverage AI and data analytics to enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency [10][20] Additional Insights - Ctrip's focus on high-end international travel customers through Trip.com aligns with its strategy to enhance user experience and reduce reliance on third-party platforms [24][25] - The company is committed to optimizing its revenue structure by increasing the share of higher-margin segments like hotel bookings [11][19]

Group 1 - Douyin e-commerce's GMV growth exceeded 30% from January to October 2025, with an expected annual GMV surpassing 4 trillion yuan, approaching Pinduoduo levels [1][8] - Douyin's local life service business also saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 60% from January to October, and the annual GTV expected to exceed 800 billion yuan [1][8] - ByteDance's new strategy for Douyin e-commerce focuses on durable consumer goods to achieve market share breakthroughs and optimize traffic distribution mechanisms to enhance GMV [2][9] Group 2 - The Macau SAR government estimates the gross gaming revenue for 2026 to be 236 billion patacas, with a cautious outlook considering external economic uncertainties [2][11] - The government anticipates that tourism will continue to develop positively in 2026, supported by various favorable factors, despite a slight underperformance in actual gaming revenue in early 2025 [11][12] - The Macau government revised its 2025 gross gaming revenue estimate down to 228 billion patacas, reflecting a monthly revenue adjustment from 20 billion to 19 billion patacas [12]