Summary of Poly Developments Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Poly Developments - **Date**: April 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Performance - In April 2025, Poly Developments' subscription was concentrated in 38 core cities, accounting for 91% of total subscriptions, with first and second-tier cities making up approximately 80% [2][5] - The sales of incremental projects maintained a high proportion of 61% in April, indicating the company's strength in core areas and new projects [2][5] - The overall visitor volume in April 2025 decreased by about 40% year-on-year, but the top 50 star projects contributed 50% of the visits, showing increased attractiveness of leading projects [2][9] - During the May Day holiday, the subscription amount remained stable compared to last year, attributed to improved conversion rates and significant sales efforts at the end of April [2][10] Financial Performance - The total amount of new expansion projects from January to April 2025 reached 30.8 billion yuan, with an equity ratio of 82%, marking a recent high [2][11] - As of the end of April 2025, the comprehensive interest-bearing debt cost for Poly Developments fell below 3% for the first time, at 2.96%, with new debt costs at 2.8% [2][13][14] Sales and Inventory Management - In April 2025, the contract amount was 24.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, with a cumulative contract amount of 87.7 billion yuan from January to April, down 9% year-on-year [4] - The overall sales rate in April was not very high, with first-tier cities at 45% and second and third-tier cities between 35% and 40% [2][8] - The push sales amount in April was 19 billion yuan, with the last five days contributing 56% of the total, primarily in preparation for May Day sales [2][7] Expansion and Investment Strategy - Poly Developments disclosed four new expansion projects in April, totaling 450,000 square meters and an investment amount of 12.8 billion yuan, representing a 400% increase year-on-year [2][11] - The company aims to achieve an annual investment target of 100 billion yuan, having already realized about 40 billion yuan by April [12] Future Outlook - The company expects market heat to rise in the coming months, with several new projects scheduled to launch in May and June [15] - Recent government policies, including interest rate cuts, are anticipated to positively impact the real estate industry, enhancing liquidity and supporting recovery [16] Challenges and Adaptations - The shift to a current housing sales model is expected to change the industry dynamics, requiring companies to enhance their comprehensive capabilities [17][18] - Poly Developments has established a fast construction system to reduce the time from land acquisition to completion to 14 months, with some projects potentially completed in 12 months [3][19] Internal Structure - Poly Developments primarily handles development in most cities, with only a few cities, such as Shenzhen, managed by Poly Properties [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, Poly Developments [5] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 10.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.00 billion yuan, down 58.6% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 54.27 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.95 billion yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is focusing on deepening its presence in core cities, with sales in 28 key cities expected to account for 90% of total sales in 2024, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of newly acquired land has significantly increased from 7,300 yuan per square meter in 2021 to 16,900 yuan per square meter in 2024 [2] - The company has seen a decrease in financing costs, with the comprehensive cost of interest-bearing liabilities dropping to 2.92% in 2024, a decrease of 22 basis points year-on-year. The approval of an 8.5 billion yuan convertible bond further enhances its financing capabilities [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company's projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 285.99 billion yuan, 267.67 billion yuan, and 271.78 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a continued decline in revenue [4] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 4.59 billion yuan, with a slight recovery expected in 2027 to 6.11 billion yuan [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.39 yuan in 2025, 0.38 yuan in 2026, and 0.51 yuan in 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing housing prices for both the real estate market and consumer confidence [4][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the real estate market, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 29% week-on-week, while second-hand home sales showed a year-on-year increase of 12% [3][12]. - The report indicates that the government is implementing a series of monetary policy measures to support market stability, including a reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and housing provident fund rates [4][27]. - The report suggests that the competitive landscape in the real estate sector is expected to improve, particularly for companies with strong product capabilities, as the market transitions to a new development model [4][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 cities totaled 181.9 million square meters last week, a decrease of 29.2% compared to the previous week [5]. - In May, new home sales in 34 cities increased by 9% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 10.6% increase [7][8]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, with a current available area of 89.27 million square meters [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced a series of monetary policy measures, including a 10 basis point reduction in the LPR and a 25 basis point reduction in housing provident fund rates [4][27]. - The report notes that the government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting domestic demand in response to external trade tensions [4][27]. Company Announcements - In April, major real estate companies reported varied sales performance, with China Overseas Development achieving sales of 202 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, while China Jinmao saw a 7% increase [34]. - As of April 30, 2025, China Vanke and China Merchants Shekou have initiated share buybacks, indicating confidence in their long-term prospects [34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and is maintained [12]. Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has become more proactive, and market expectations have improved, although marginal downward pressure has increased since April [5]. - The rapid decline phase in the industry regarding volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [5]. - The importance of real estate to the economic internal circulation cannot be overlooked, emphasizing the need to focus on quality real estate companies with core assets and stable cash flows [5]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 0.92% this week, with a year-to-date decline of 5.57%, ranking 30 out of 32 industries [6][15]. - The performance of the sector has been poor, with declines primarily in development and property management companies, while rental companies showed mixed results [6]. Policy Updates - The central bank announced interest rate cuts, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy rates, expected to lead to a similar decline in LPR [7]. - Local policies in Guangdong aim to better meet housing consumption needs and support the transformation of urban villages [7]. Sales Data - Recent new home registrations in sample cities showed fluctuations, with new home transaction area down by 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand homes saw a 16.0% increase [8]. - As of May 9, the new home transaction area in 37 cities showed a month-on-month increase of 15.8% [8]. Mortgage Rate Insights - The average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers in key cities is around 3.1%, expected to decrease to approximately 3.0% following policy rate adjustments [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of rental-to-sale ratios and actual interest rates in determining the appropriateness of mortgage rates [9].

Core Insights - The announcement of the regulatory adjustment for the Donghua Li 7 and 8 plots has sparked significant discussion within the industry [1] - The two plots are currently in the early research stage, with no confirmed plans for sale in the near future [3] - The adjustment is seen as a breakthrough in addressing historical issues related to these plots, but there are still many processes to complete before they can be officially listed [5] Industry Developments - The scarcity of residential land resources in the Zhuliao area makes any potential land sale highly anticipated, with the recent Jin Cheng Street plot in Zhencheng attracting considerable attention from industry insiders and the public [7] - Major real estate companies such as Poly, Longfor, and Beike have shown strong interest in the Jin Cheng Street plot, indicating a potential bidding war [7] - Beike is expanding into real estate development, with plans to acquire land in Foshan, marking its first project in the city [9] - Poly is speculated to be a strong competitor for the Jin Cheng Street plot, potentially developing a second phase of its Tongji Mansion project [15] - Longfor is expected to leverage its previous success with the Yuhuajing project to compete for the new plot, which is located close to its previous development [19] - The plot's location in the core area of Zhencheng, surrounded by dense commercial, educational, transportation, and medical resources, makes it a highly sought-after site for real estate companies [20] - The outcome of the bidding process on May 27 is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape of the Foshan real estate market [22]

此次4宗地块的起拍总价约84亿元，有两宗地溢价成交，两宗地底价成交，土拍热度分化。参拍房企全 部为上海近年来土拍常客，比如保利发展、保利置业、招商蛇口、金茂、中海、华润、中铁建等，且全 为央国企。 5月9日，上海2025年四批次土拍顺利举行，4宗地块共揽金97.1亿元。 央国企补仓 当天上午，先是杨浦、松江地块相继卖出，共收金67亿元。其中，保利置业以42.4063亿元总价、溢价 率26.3%拿下杨浦地块，成交楼面价约为8.02万元/平方米。中铁建以24.7082亿元，溢价率20.42%拿下松 江新城地块，成交楼面价2.5288万元/平方米。 当天下午，保利发展、北外滩集团分别以底价8.4亿元、21.57亿元获取青浦、虹口地块。 大赢家是保利集团。根据两宗地所在板块在售新房均价估算，保利集团此次加码投资上海，至少可增加 超过75亿储备货值。 公开信息显示，杨浦地块位于内中环，紧邻12号线爱国路站，与滨江直线距离约500米。这宗地附近就 是中海在2024年11月拿的杨浦区N090602单元K8-05地块。另外，中海于2024年10月竞得的杨浦区定海 社区K2-04地块、杨浦区定海社区G2-5地块也在附近，三宗地 ...

地块西侧乍浦路曾是上海最早的美食街之一，也是电影《酱园弄》的取景地，周边有胜利电影院、今潮 8弄等。 第四批次上海土拍市场平稳落槌。 5月9日，上海四批次4幅地块全部成功出让，总出让面积约10.1万平方米，总成交金额97亿元。其中，2 宗地块溢价成交，2宗底价成交。 此次土拍中，参拍企业有所减少。相比第三批次的约15家房企报名，四批次共吸引约9家房企参与其 中。从参拍企业性质来看，主要以央国企为主，6家央企，2家国企，1家港资。其中，保利集团旗下的 保利发展（600048）和保利置业分别斩获一宗地块。 业内人士表示，既未现超预期的激烈角逐，也未诞生突破性的亮点时刻。整场出让在波澜不惊中有序推 进，房企拿地策略趋于理性，市场延续稳中有进的态势，折射出当前土地市场审慎而务实的发展基调。 保利置业补仓杨浦 5月9日上午10点，杨浦地块率先开拍，这是此次供地中最热门地块。 在未开拍之前，从流传出参拍房企名单中也可以看出，这也是前期报名阶段参拍房企最多的地块，包括 招商蛇口（001979）、中国金茂、华润置地、中海地产、保利置业5家竞买人。 最终，该地块由中国铁建（601186）竞得，成交价24.71亿元，成交楼面价2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to face profit impacts in 2024 due to impairment and a decrease in project turnover, but a gradual stabilization of gross margins is anticipated as the industry recovers, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 311.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.15%, primarily due to a decline in real estate project turnover; net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.001 billion yuan, down 58.56% year-on-year [2] - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2026 to 0.45 yuan and 0.49 yuan respectively, and introduced a new EPS forecast of 0.54 yuan for 2027; a target price of 10.17 yuan is set based on a 0.6x PB valuation method [2] Sales and Market Position - The company maintained its industry-leading sales scale, achieving a signed area of 17.9661 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of 24.7% year-on-year, and a sales amount of 323.029 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year; it has remained the top in sales amount for two consecutive years [3] - The company focused on 38 core cities, with sales accounting for 90% of total sales, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year; the market share in these cities reached 7.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from 2023 [3] Cash Flow and Asset Management - The company reported positive operating cash flow of 6.3 billion yuan in 2024, marking the seventh consecutive year of positive cash flow; at year-end, cash on hand was 134.2 billion yuan, with receivables from sold but not yet collected funds amounting to 83.2 billion yuan [3] - The company has successfully revitalized approximately 47.5 billion yuan of restricted funds through accelerated investment recovery in joint projects and land reserves [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to stimulate economic growth and support employment amid weak economic data [1][3][4] - The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds [4] - The cut in the re-lending rate by 0.25 percentage points aims to alleviate the financial pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises [4] Group 2 - The immediate impact on the stock market is expected to be positive, with sectors such as real estate, consumer goods, and high-debt industries likely to benefit from lower financing costs [5][6] - Historical comparisons show that after previous rate cuts, the A-share market has generally performed well, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to 1.6%, the lowest since 2005 [8][9] - The potential for further interest rate cuts exists if economic conditions remain weak, with a possibility of a 10 basis point reduction in the third quarter [10][11] Group 3 - The real estate market may stabilize in first-tier cities, but there are still significant inventory pressures in third- and fourth-tier cities, indicating a divergence in recovery [11] - There is a high likelihood that deposit rates will follow suit and decrease, potentially pushing more funds into the stock market [12] - Investment strategies suggest a balanced approach with a focus on sectors like real estate, automotive, and technology, while avoiding export-dependent industries [13][15]

Group 1 - Dashi Intelligent signed a smart hospital project contract worth 58.12 million yuan with the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College and Bengbu Urban Construction Investment Development Co., Ltd. [1] - The project aims to create a comprehensive tumor specialty hospital integrating medical care, research, teaching, preventive health care, and rehabilitation, which is expected to positively impact the company's future performance [1] Group 2 - Huahong Company reported a net profit of 22.76 million yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 89.73%, despite a revenue increase of 18.66% to 3.913 billion yuan [2] - The company specializes in the development and application of embedded/non-volatile memory, power devices, and other semiconductor technologies [2] Group 3 - Jindi Group announced a signed area of 214,000 square meters in April, a year-on-year decrease of 55.14%, with a signed amount of 2.78 billion yuan, down 55.45% [3] - The company focuses on real estate development and sales, commercial real estate, and property management [3] Group 4 - Jinlong Automobile reported a bus production of 4,361 units in April, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79%, with sales of 3,611 units, down 3.91% [4][5] - The company is engaged in the production and sales of bus products [5] Group 5 - Sanyou Medical established a joint venture with CGBio Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 60 million yuan, focusing on innovative cell biological materials and regenerative medicine [6][7] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of orthopedic implant consumables [7] Group 6 - Jinzhi Technology won a bid for projects related to the State Grid with a total amount of 90.73 million yuan, accounting for 5.12% of the company's projected revenue for 2024 [9][10] - The company focuses on smart energy and smart city businesses [10] Group 7 - Pinggao Electric won multiple procurement projects from the State Grid, totaling approximately 1.751 billion yuan, which is 14.12% of the company's projected revenue for 2024 [10] - The company specializes in high-voltage switchgear and power engineering contracting [10] Group 8 - Luantang Pharmaceutical received approval for the raw material drug Celecoxib, which is a selective COX-2 inhibitor with fewer gastrointestinal side effects compared to traditional NSAIDs [11][12] - The company is involved in the research, production, and sales of pharmaceutical products [12] Group 9 - Dongjie Intelligent obtained seven patent certificates related to AGV and conveyor system technologies [13][14] - The company specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, installation, and debugging of intelligent logistics systems [14] Group 10 - XJH Holdings received a government subsidy of 8.69 million yuan, which accounts for 38.67% of the company's projected net profit for 2024 [15][16] - The company focuses on the recycling and dismantling of waste electrical products [16] Group 11 - Huaihua Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received approval for the clinical trial of HZ-J001 ointment for treating non-segmental vitiligo [17][19] - The company is engaged in the research, production, and sales of pharmaceutical products [19] Group 12 - ST Aonong reported a pig sales volume of 132,800 heads in April, a year-on-year decrease of 14.42%, while the stock of pigs increased by 15.06% [22][23] - The company is involved in feed, pig farming, food, and trade [23] Group 13 - Beibu Gulf Port reported a cargo throughput of 31.75 million tons in April, a year-on-year increase of 20.32% [24][25] - The company specializes in port loading, storage, and related services [25] Group 14 - Dongfang Iron Tower won a bid for State Grid projects totaling approximately 100 million yuan, which is 2.39% of the company's projected revenue for 2024 [26] - The company focuses on steel structures and related businesses [26] Group 15 - Huanxu Electronics reported a consolidated revenue of 4.641 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 0.72% [27] - The company provides design, manufacturing, and related services for brand customers [27] Group 16 - Jincheng Co. announced that part of its bank accounts has been frozen, involving approximately 32.97 million yuan due to contract disputes [28][29] - The company specializes in high-end intelligent equipment for photovoltaic and smart port sectors [29] Group 17 - NAIKE Equipment announced the departure of core technical personnel Wang Xiangguo [30][31] - The company focuses on semiconductor packaging equipment and related products [31] Group 18 - Jiaojian Co. won a construction project in Hefei with a bid amount of approximately 704 million yuan, covering residential buildings and related infrastructure [32][33] - The company specializes in infrastructure construction and related services [33] Group 19 - Hongyuan Green Energy plans to transfer a 27.07% stake in Inner Mongolia Xinyuan Silicon Material Technology Co., Ltd. for 1.245 billion yuan [34][35] - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of aviation electromechanical products [35] Group 20 - Poly Development reported a signed amount of 24.622 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year decrease of 25.44% [46][48] - The company specializes in real estate development and sales [48]