Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhongjin Gold has experienced a significant stock price increase, with a 17.69% rise over the past four days, closing at 17.76 yuan per share on September 2, with a total market capitalization of 86.088 billion yuan [1] - Zhongjin Gold's stock trading volume reached 4.072 billion yuan on the reporting date, indicating strong investor interest and activity [1] - The company, established on September 24, 2007, specializes in geological exploration, mining, and smelting of gold and other non-ferrous metals [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Dongfang Fund has a significant position in Zhongjin Gold, with its fund, Dongfang Xingrui Trend Leading Mixed A, holding 348,000 shares, representing 5.4% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 92,920 yuan during the four-day stock price increase, with a current floating profit of about 6,610 yuan [2] - The fund has shown strong performance this year, with a return of 55.89%, ranking 588 out of 8,184 in its category, and a one-year return of 90.47%, ranking 538 out of 7,971 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, while institutional investors are heavily increasing their positions in gold stocks [1][4] - International gold prices have surpassed $3,557 per ounce, and domestic gold prices have exceeded 800 yuan per gram, indicating a strong market trend [1] - Institutional holdings in gold stocks like Shandong Gold and Chifeng Gold have exceeded 1 billion yuan, showcasing a clear disparity in information access between institutional and retail investors [4] Group 2 - The article discusses four major pitfalls in a bull market, including holding stocks too long, blindly chasing market hotspots, over-relying on leading stocks, and buying heavily discounted stocks without proper analysis [5][6] - It emphasizes that profits in a bull market are not achieved by waiting but by proactive decision-making and understanding market dynamics [6] Group 3 - The case of Dize Pharmaceutical illustrates that stock prices can rise despite negative news if institutional investors see long-term potential, while Narui Radar's stock price fell despite a significant profit increase due to lack of institutional interest [7][11] - The article stresses the importance of quantifiable data in predicting institutional behavior, highlighting that institutional trading has distinct characteristics that can be tracked over time [12][15] Group 4 - The article concludes that understanding the underlying funding logic behind market movements, such as the recent surge in gold prices, is crucial for investors, rather than merely reacting to market trends [12][13]

Group 1 - The performance of gold stocks in the first half of 2025 has significantly improved, with several companies reporting substantial increases in net profit [2][5] - The international gold price has been rising, with COMEX gold futures reaching a record high of $3,557.1 per ounce on September 1, 2025, marking a nearly 35% increase year-to-date [2][4] - Domestic gold prices have also surged, with the Shanghai gold contract closing at 800.56 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of over 28% since the beginning of the year [3][4] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a probability of a 25 basis point cut in September reaching 87.4% [4][5] - Global gold demand has increased significantly, with the World Gold Council reporting a 3% year-on-year increase in total demand to 1,249 tons in Q2 2025, and a 45% increase in value to $132 billion, a historical high [4][5] - Several organizations are optimistic about the future performance of gold prices, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and the safe-haven appeal of gold as key factors [5][6] Group 3 - The financial performance of gold companies has improved, with 12 gold stocks reporting year-on-year increases in net profit or turning profitable, including notable gains from companies like Western Gold and Shandong Gold [5][6] - Western Gold reported a net profit of 154 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 131.94% increase year-on-year, achieving the highest profit for the same period since its listing [6] - Social security funds have shown interest in gold stocks, with five gold stocks receiving significant investments, totaling 3.312 billion yuan, indicating strong institutional support [6]

晨会纪要（2025/09/02） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.02） 宏观及策略研究 结构性因素拉动下，制造业景气边际改善——2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据点评 公司研究 业绩增速表现亮眼，聚焦机器人传感器领域——柯力传感（603662）2025 年 中报点评 主要产品量价齐升，增量项目持续推进——紫金矿业（601899）2025 年半年 报点评 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/09/02） 宏观及策略研究 价格带动业绩增长，资源基础继续夯实——中金黄金（600489）2025 年半年 报点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 结构性因素拉动下，制造业景气边际改善——2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a slight consolidation, with a noticeable trend of "high cutting and low buying" in recent funds, particularly focusing on the solid performance and high valuation of the non-ferrous metal sector during the interim report season [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant net inflow of over 1 billion yuan in a single day, with four out of the last five days showing net inflows totaling over 1.85 billion yuan [3] - As of the latest data, the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has surpassed a scale of 10 billion yuan, with both fund shares and scale reaching new highs since its listing [3] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) experienced a net subscription of 2.9 million shares, translating to a real-time net subscription amount exceeding 37 million yuan [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Silver trading prices have surpassed 40 USD per ounce, marking the highest level since 2011 [5] - On September 1, tungsten concentrate prices surged by 12,000 yuan, reaching 264,000 yuan per ton, with a growth rate of 4.76%, and a cumulative increase of nearly 35% over the past two months [5] - COMEX gold futures rose over 1% on September 1, reaching a peak of 3,552 USD per ounce, setting a new historical high [5] Group 3: Sector Analysis - Analysts indicate that the A-share precious metals and industrial metals sectors are currently in a "high profitability, low valuation" phase, with expectations for valuation increases driven by active capital market trading and the "high cutting and low buying" rotation effect [3] - The non-ferrous sector is experiencing a comprehensive growth across various sub-sectors, with price-driven earnings per share (EPS) and improved sentiment contributing to a dual boost in price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [5] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading option for investors looking to capitalize on future opportunities in precious and industrial metals, given its higher copper content and scale [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing bullish trend in the precious metals market, particularly gold, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing investments in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for related ETFs and stocks [1][4][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold has achieved a six-day consecutive rise, reaching a historical high of $3,578.4 per ounce [1]. - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) experienced a market pullback, with a decrease of 0.76%, yet saw a net subscription of 28.2 million units, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 38.1 million yuan the previous day, reflecting positive sentiment towards the sector [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Key stocks in the sector, such as Baiyin Nonferrous, Western Gold, and Jinmoly, have seen significant gains, with some reaching the daily limit [3]. - Other notable performers include Tianshan Aluminum, which rose over 5%, and China Gold, which increased by more than 4% [3]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - **Gold**: Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lead to lower real interest rates, driving funds into gold, which is expected to maintain its upward trend unless the U.S. economy shows strong growth with low inflation [4]. - **Copper**: The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with expectations of further rate cuts and a favorable supply-demand balance, particularly in sectors like electric power infrastructure and new energy vehicles [4]. - **Aluminum**: The sector is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with ongoing policy support and stable demand from industries such as new energy vehicles and power [4]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent regulatory measures indicate increased control over supply, which is expected to drive prices higher, supported by the strategic importance of rare earths [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide a diversified investment approach, with significant weightings in copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [7].

Group 1 - The A-share precious metals sector showed strong performance at the beginning of trading, with Western Gold reaching the daily limit increase [1] - Hunan Silver surged over 9%, indicating significant investor interest and market movement [1] - Other companies such as China National Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Sichuan Gold also experienced upward trends, reflecting a broader rally in the sector [1]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector continues to strengthen, with silver stocks hitting the limit up [1] - Companies such as Hunan Silver, Western Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Zhaojin Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Shandong Gold International are experiencing gains [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - On September 1, COMEX gold prices surpassed $3550 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $3552.2 per ounce, with an increase of over 1% [1] - Domestic gold stocks also performed well, with companies like Western Gold hitting the daily limit, and Hunan Gold rising by 8%. Other gold stocks such as Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold saw increases exceeding 6% [1] - The gold jewelry market experienced price hikes, with brands like Chow Tai Fook raising the price of pure gold jewelry to 1027 yuan per gram, an increase of 12 yuan per gram from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Expectations - The international gold price has risen for five consecutive trading days, with an overall increase of over 5% in August, indicating strong market demand for gold [3] - The U.S. core inflation rate, as reported by the Commerce Department, reached an annualized growth rate of 2.9% in July, the highest level since February, suggesting that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [3] - Market expectations are leaning towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support commodity prices, including gold [3] Group 3: Future Projections - Swiss Bank has raised its target price for international gold to $3700 per ounce by the first half of 2026, while analysts at Bank of America predict a more aggressive target of $4000 per ounce [4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a focal point for the market, with expectations that a significant slowdown in employment data could further elevate rate cut expectations and push gold prices to challenge historical highs [5] - As of June 30, 2025, the London spot gold price was $3287.45 per ounce, reflecting a 24.31% increase since the beginning of the year, highlighting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased, leading to a rise in investor risk aversion and a 2.86% increase in international gold prices last week [1] - In August, international gold prices saw a cumulative increase of over 5%, marking the best monthly performance since April of this year [1] - As of September 1, gold prices reached a high of $3489.86 per ounce, nearing historical highs, while COMEX gold futures peaked at $3557.1 per ounce [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - Multiple institutions have raised their gold price outlooks, with many believing that reaching $4000 per ounce next year is feasible [1] - UBS has adjusted its gold price forecast for March 2026 to $3600 per ounce and June 2026 to $3700 per ounce, citing a projected 3% increase in global gold demand this year [2] - Citibank has raised its three-month gold price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, attributing this to deteriorating economic growth and inflation prospects in the U.S. [3] Group 3: Mining Company Performance - Gold mining companies have reported significant profit increases, with all 11 upstream gold companies showing positive net profit growth [5] - Shandong Gold reported a 24.01% increase in revenue and a 102.98% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by rising gold prices and optimized cost control [6][7] - Other companies like Western Gold and Zhongjin Gold also reported substantial revenue and profit growth, with Western Gold achieving a 69.01% increase in revenue year-on-year [7][8] Group 4: Investment Trends - The rise in gold prices has led domestic asset management institutions to increasingly recognize gold's role in asset allocation, with nearly 45% of FOF products now holding gold ETFs [3][4] - A pilot program allowing insurance funds to invest in gold has been initiated, potentially bringing around 200 billion yuan into the gold market [4] - Banks have begun issuing wealth management products with significant allocations to gold, aiming to capture long-term gains while diversifying risk [4]