Capital.com高级市场分析师凯尔·罗达表示："特朗普周末对欧洲国家加征关税，并加大力度胁迫以吞并 格陵兰岛，导致人们对美国失去信任。黄金价格的波动反映了人们对全球地缘政治紧张局势的担 忧。""显然，投资者正在抛售美元，抛售美债，尤其是长期国债，转而买入黄金，因为目前市场对黄金 的信心高于对美元的信心。" A股市场黄金概念股午后进一步拉升，其中，白银有色、国城矿业、四川黄金、中国瑞林、湖南白银、 招金黄金涨停，南矿集团涨超8%，西部黄金、赤峰黄金涨超7%，豫光金铅、晓程科技、中金黄金涨超 6%，株冶集团、山金国际、盛达资源、鹏欣资源涨超5%。 受避险需求和美元走软的提振，金价飙升至每盎司4870.96美元的历史新高。美国总统特朗普对格陵兰 岛的觊觎可能会引发与欧洲的贸易战，并可能动摇北约。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 息市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601212 | 白银有色 | 1 | 10.01 | 635亿 | 46.50 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | 10 | 10.01 | 331亿 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of a significant policy in Shanghai has led to a strong rally in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), which saw a price increase of over 2.1% during the day and is approaching its previous listing high [1][11]. Fund Performance - As of the latest update, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) has received a net subscription of 21.6 million units, accumulating a total of 635 million yuan over the past 10 days [1][11]. - The latest scale of the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF reached 1.665 billion yuan, setting a new historical high, making it the largest ETF tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index in the market [6][13]. Stock Performance - Key stocks in the sector, including Baiyin Nonferrous, Hunan Nonferrous, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, have hit the daily limit, with Baiyin Nonferrous rising by 10.01% and Hunan Nonferrous by 10% [3][14]. - Other notable performers include Guocheng Mining, which increased by over 8%, and Zhongkuang Resources, which rose by more than 7% [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The Shanghai government has issued a plan to enhance the competitiveness of non-ferrous metal commodities, aiming to improve resource allocation and global pricing influence [4][12]. - A favorable supply-demand balance, characterized by limited supply growth and improving demand, is expected to support the long-term strength of the non-ferrous sector [5][13]. Investment Outlook - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF covers a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture various market cycles [8][16]. - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions may reshape global metal supply chains, potentially increasing the demand and value of strategic metals such as copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [5][13].

Group 1: Key Insights on Precious Metals - The upward momentum for precious metals, particularly gold, is strong, with London gold prices reaching $4,611.05 per ounce, an increase of $117.20 per ounce from the previous week, reflecting a rise of 2.59% [2] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut anticipated in January [2][3] Group 2: Key Insights on Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices are experiencing high-level consolidation, with LME copper closing at $12,925 per ton, down $65 per ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4] - Domestic copper inventory is reported at 213,515 tons, showing an increase of 4,600 tons from January 9, while SHFE inventory also reflects a similar trend [4] - Aluminum prices are at 24,000 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with LME aluminum inventory at 488,000 tons, a decrease of 9,825 tons [6] Group 3: Key Insights on Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin prices are at 41,4640 yuan per ton, up 639.40 yuan per ton, indicating a positive trend [8] - Antimony prices have rebounded, with domestic antimony ingot prices increasing by 0.2 million yuan per ton from January 9 [10] Group 4: Investment Ratings and Recommendations - The copper industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tightness in copper supply [13] - The aluminum industry also holds a "recommended" investment rating, supported by rigid supply dynamics [14] - The tin industry is rated "recommended" as supply constraints are expected to support tin prices [14] - The antimony industry is rated "recommended" following a rebound in prices after a six-month decline [14] Group 5: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), and China National Gold (600916) [15] - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and Western Mining (601168) [15] - For aluminum, recommended stocks are Shenhuo Co. (000933) and Yunnan Aluminum (000807) [15] - In the tin sector, recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. (000960) and Hunan Gold (002155) [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that A-share gold concept stocks have strengthened significantly due to rising demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions, leading to record high prices for gold and silver [1] - Silver prices reached a historical high of $95.89 per ounce, while gold prices surpassed $4830 per ounce, also marking a new record [1] Group 2 - Hunan Silver (002716) saw a price increase of 10.00%, with a total market value of 38.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 97.11% [2] - Silver Nonferrous (601212) rose by 8.99%, with a market capitalization of 62.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 45.13% [2] - Guocheng Mining (000688) increased by 5.75%, with a market value of 31.8 billion, but has a year-to-date decline of 3.45% [2] - Other notable stocks include Nankuang Group (001360) up 5.00%, Xiaocheng Technology (300139) up 5.25%, and Sichuan Gold (001337) up 4.30% [2] - The overall trend indicates a strong performance in the gold and silver sector, with many companies experiencing significant year-to-date gains [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry is experiencing significant growth due to rising gold prices and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Companies in this sector are leveraging their resource advantages and operational efficiencies to capitalize on these market conditions. Company Summaries - **Sichuan Gold (001337)**: Located in Sichuan, the company benefits from high-quality gold resources and low-cost mining advantages. It is expected to gain from rising gold prices and regional resource integration policies, enhancing its growth potential [1]. - **Zhaojin Gold (000506)**: A well-established player in the gold industry, Zhaojin has a comprehensive supply chain and strong technical capabilities. The company is positioned to benefit from increased gold demand due to geopolitical tensions and has a robust hedging strategy to stabilize profits [2]. - **Shandong Gold International (000975)**: This company operates globally, focusing on low-cost mining resources. It is expected to thrive amid geopolitical conflicts, leveraging its operational experience and resource management to respond to international gold price fluctuations [3]. - **Xiaocheng Technology (300139)**: Focused on intelligent mining solutions and African resource development, the company is set to benefit from both rising gold prices and increased demand for mining technology services [4]. - **China National Gold (600489)**: As a leading state-owned enterprise, it has the largest gold reserves in China. The company is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing domestic gold supply and prices amid rising global demand [5]. - **Western Gold (601069)**: Based in Xinjiang, the company benefits from high-quality resources and regional policies supporting resource integration. It is positioned as a key player in ensuring domestic gold supply [6][7]. - **Chifeng Gold (600988)**: A rapidly expanding company that has increased its resource reserves through acquisitions. It is expected to enhance profit margins through optimized mining processes amid rising gold prices [8]. - **Hengbang Shares (002237)**: A leading gold smelting company, it benefits from its ability to process complex ores and is positioned to gain from rising gold prices and increased demand for silver recovery [9]. - **Shandong Gold (600547)**: The absolute leader in the gold industry, it has the largest resource reserves and production capacity. The company is expected to stabilize market expectations and supply amid rising gold prices [10]. - **Hunan Silver (002716)**: A core player in the silver industry, it benefits from rising silver prices and increased demand from the photovoltaic industry, enhancing its profit margins [11]. - **Zijin Mining (601899)**: A major player in the non-ferrous metals sector, it has a global footprint in gold mining and is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and geopolitical tensions [12]. - **Yintai Gold (000975)**: This company has a strong resource base and low-cost mining operations, positioning it well to benefit from rising gold prices and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [13]. - **Shengda Resources (000603)**: A leading silver company, it is expected to benefit from rising silver prices and increased demand from the photovoltaic industry, while also expanding into gold resource development [14]. - **Yuguang Gold Lead (600531)**: A leader in lead and zinc smelting, it has strong silver recovery capabilities and is expected to benefit from rising silver prices amid increased industrial demand [15]. - **Hunan Gold (002155)**: A significant gold producer, it is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and regional resource development policies, enhancing its growth potential [16]. - **Zhongrun Resources (000506)**: Focused on overseas gold projects, it is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and geopolitical tensions, leveraging its operational experience [17]. - **Yuancheng Gold (600766)**: This company is focused on gold exploration and development, benefiting from rising gold prices and regional resource integration [18]. - **Xingye Mining (000426)**: A multi-metal mining company, it is expected to benefit from rising silver prices and increased demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry [19]. - **Jin Gui Silver Industry (002716)**: A leading silver smelting company, it is expected to benefit from rising silver prices and increased demand from the photovoltaic industry [20]. - **Western Mining (601168)**: A core player in the non-ferrous metals sector, it is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and increased demand for new energy metals [21]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)**: A global mining giant, it is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and geopolitical tensions, leveraging its diverse resource portfolio [22]. - **Guizhou Platinum Industry (600459)**: A leader in precious metals, it is expected to benefit from rising demand for platinum and palladium amid global energy transitions [23]. - **Nanmin Group (001360)**: A mining equipment leader, it is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and increased demand for mining equipment amid a booming gold market [24]. - **Xingye Silver Tin (000426)**: This company is expanding its global gold asset portfolio and is expected to benefit from rising silver prices and increased demand for gold [25].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - In the first month of the new year, spot gold has increased by over 8%, rising more than $380 [1] - Major gold mining companies include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, all of which have strong resource reserves and cost control capabilities [3] - Shandong Gold is noted for its high correlation with gold prices, indicating significant earnings elasticity [3] Group 2: Silver Market Overview - Silver resources are led by companies like Silver Mountain Mining, which has a silver reserve of 8,382 tons, ranking first in Asia [4] - Shengda Resources focuses on silver mining and refining, with 92% of its business in silver, showcasing strong profitability linked to silver prices [5] - Hunan Silver is the only listed company in China primarily focused on silver, with a full industry chain from mining to refining [7] Group 3: Platinum Group Metals - Companies like Zhongxin Metal and Guoyuan Platinum are involved in the recovery and production of platinum group metals, with significant future production expected [7] - The demand for palladium is anticipated to rise due to its use in automotive emissions control, benefiting companies that produce it as a byproduct [7] - GreenMei is a leader in the recycling of electronic and automotive waste, with a substantial capacity for recovering precious metals [7]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 3.47% compared to the previous trading day, with Hunan Silver leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - Hunan Silver's stock price rose by 10.03% to 12.40, with a trading volume of 4.6076 million shares and a transaction value of 543.8 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 546 million yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 612 million yuan [1] - Hunan Silver had a main fund net inflow of 3.28 billion yuan, representing 6.04% of its total trading volume [2] - The trading data indicates that while some stocks like Hunan Silver saw positive main fund inflows, others like Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Gold experienced significant net outflows [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [7][8]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation continues to create volatility, but gold prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing tensions [3][52]. - The steel industry is anticipated to see improved profitability due to the implementation of growth policies and an optimistic demand outlook in sectors like shipbuilding and construction [4][5]. - The copper market is expected to tighten due to supply constraints from major mines, while demand is projected to increase in sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [4][41]. - The aluminum sector faces challenges with oversupply in alumina and potential short-term price corrections, but the demand from the new energy vehicle sector remains a key focus [4][48]. - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export controls and the strategic importance of rare earth resources [7][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Current steel mill inventory pressure is not significant, and short-term demand decline is limited, with expectations of price support before the Spring Festival [5][19]. - As of January 16, 2026, the total steel inventory was 12.4955 million tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the previous week, but an increase of 7.72% year-on-year [26][27]. - The comprehensive price index for steel on January 16, 2026, was 3,457.46 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous week [39][40]. Copper Industry - The copper market is facing a lack of driving force for price increases, but expectations for 2026 remain positive due to anticipated demand growth [3][41]. - As of January 16, 2026, LME copper prices were 13,000 USD/ton, with SHFE copper prices at 101,900 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease in LME prices but an increase in SHFE prices [46]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum processing sector is currently in a contraction phase, with a PMI of 42.4% as of December 2025 [48]. - The average price of alumina on January 16, 2026, was 2,666 CNY/ton, down 1.00% from the previous week [49]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical landscape and mixed economic data from the U.S. are influencing gold prices, which are expected to remain supported [52]. - As of January 16, 2026, COMEX gold prices were 4,601.10 USD/oz, reflecting a 1.83% increase from the previous week [53].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a collective pullback in major indices, with significant declines in copper and gold prices, while emerging sectors like AI data centers are driving long-term demand for non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 20, 2026, major indices have collectively retreated, with copper prices experiencing a sharp drop and gold prices slightly declining [1]. - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), fell by 0.2%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 2.31%, and the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) dropped by 2.34% [1]. - The trading volume was active, with a turnover of 216 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.49%, indicating potential fund accumulation [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Demand Drivers - Non-ferrous metal ETFs have seen continuous net inflows over the past 18 days, totaling 10.774 billion yuan [1]. - Emerging fields like AI data centers are becoming core demand drivers for non-ferrous metals, with significant reliance on copper and aluminum for power and cooling systems [1]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be supported in the long term due to "AI capital expenditure growth" and global energy transition trends [1]. Group 3: Industrial Product Price Dynamics - According to Dongfang Securities, market expectations for short-term interest rate cuts have been dampened following statements from Trump, leading to weakened financial support for industrial product prices [2]. - Increased domestic inventory and lower downstream processing rates have contributed to negative feedback for major industrial products like copper and aluminum [2]. - Despite short-term volatility, strong support for industrial products is anticipated due to internal and external policy expectations, with some inventories at historically low levels [2]. Group 4: ETF Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 52.98% of the index [2].

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 4.18% on January 19, with Sichuan Gold leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector showed significant price increases, with Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Gold both rising by 9.99% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 1.549 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.489 billion yuan [1] - Major stocks like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold saw net inflows of 342 million yuan and 301 million yuan respectively, indicating strong institutional interest [2] - Retail investors showed negative sentiment towards several stocks, with significant outflows from Sichuan Gold and other companies [2]