记者丨叶麦穗 编辑丨黄剑 市场担忧美联储独立性受到挑战，投资者避险情绪升温，国际金价上周上涨2.86%。整个8月，国际金 价累计涨幅超过5%，创下今年4月以来的最佳单月表现。9月1日（截至北京时间17:00），黄金再度驶 入上涨通道，最高触及3489.86美元/盎司，距离历史新高仅有一步之遥。与此同时，COMEX黄金期货 价格盘中最高冲至3557.1美元/盎司，站上历史最高点。 市场的主流观点认为，近期聚焦于美联储货币政策转向的逻辑，叠加美联储独立性受质疑，重新推升市 场避险买盘，关注金价能否顺利突破4月历史高点位置，为下一步上涨打开上行空间。 由于黄金走强，近期又有大行上调黄金价格展望。瑞银集团称，随着美联储降息、美元走弱以及投资需 求扩大，金价将延续涨势，该机构同时还上调了2026年上半年的金价预测。Wayne Gordon等瑞银财富 管理部门分析师在报告中表示，将2026年3月末黄金目标价上调100美元，至每盎司3600美元；6月末目 标价上调200美元，至每盎司3700美元。他们预测今年全球黄金需求预计将增长3%，达到4760吨，创 2011年以来的最高水平。这已经是瑞银今年第五次调整对黄金的展望。 ...

Group 1 - The core transaction of Zhongjin Gold on September 1 involved a block trade of 287,000 shares, amounting to 5.0426 million yuan, with a transaction price of 17.57 yuan per share [2][3] - The buyer was China International Capital Corporation's Beijing Jian Guo Men Wai Securities Branch, while the seller was Ping An Securities' Shenzhen Jin Tian Road Securities Branch [2] - In the last three months, Zhongjin Gold has recorded a total of six block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 39.701 million yuan [3] Group 2 - The closing price of Zhongjin Gold on the day of the transaction was 17.57 yuan, reflecting a 10.02% increase, with a daily turnover rate of 4.72% and a total trading volume of 3.9 billion yuan [3] - Over the past five days, the stock has increased by 15.97%, although there has been a net outflow of 195 million yuan in funds [3] - The latest margin financing balance for Zhongjin Gold is 2.283 billion yuan, with an increase of 48.3847 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth of 2.17% [4] Group 3 - Two institutions have provided ratings for Zhongjin Gold in the past five days, with Huatai Securities setting the highest target price at 17.97 yuan as of August 29 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongjin Gold's stock price surged due to its strong half-year performance and market expectations for asset injections, reflecting robust growth in the gold industry amid rising gold prices [4][10]. Company Overview - Zhongjin Gold, established in June 2000, is the first publicly listed company in China's gold industry, with its main business covering geological exploration, mining, and processing of gold and non-ferrous metals [4][5]. - The company has undergone three distinct development phases: rapid growth (2008-2012), stable development (2013-2019), and a new journey (2020-present), with significant increases in gold production and resource reserves [5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhongjin Gold achieved revenue of 65.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit of 3.386 billion yuan, up 13.71% [5]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 35.067 billion yuan, a 22.90% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.695 billion yuan, reflecting a 54.64% growth [7][10]. - Key financial indicators showed improvement, with a total profit of 4.081 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 57.32% increase, and a net asset return rate of 9.36%, up 2.84 percentage points [7]. Market Dynamics - The surge in gold prices, with international prices rising by 24.31% year-to-date, has significantly enhanced the company's profit margins [10]. - The company is planning to acquire stakes in four gold mining enterprises, which is expected to boost its resource reserves and production capacity [10]. Technological Advancements - Zhongjin Gold has invested in technological innovation, with 1.68 billion yuan allocated for research and development in the first half of 2025, resulting in numerous patent applications and authorizations [11]. - The company's advancements in new materials and rare metals are expected to contribute to its valuation reconstruction [11].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, leading to significant gains in gold-related stocks [1][3][7]. Price Movements - On September 1, COMEX gold prices peaked at $3552.4 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $3534.1 set in early August [1][3]. - The domestic futures market also saw a surge, with the Shanghai gold futures contract breaking through 800 yuan per gram [1]. Market Reactions - The rise in international gold prices has led to a substantial increase in A-share precious metal stocks, with companies like Zhongjin Gold and Hunan Gold hitting their daily price limits [4]. - In the past week, gold prices have increased by over $80 per ounce, marking a four-day consecutive rise and drawing global investor attention [5]. Economic Indicators - The gold price increase is attributed to the dovish signals from the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, where Fed Chair Powell's remarks suggested a potential restart of interest rate cuts [8][9]. - Recent economic data, including the core PCE index, has reinforced expectations for rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [8][9]. Investment Sentiment - Fund managers believe that gold has further upward potential, although caution is advised regarding the market's anticipation of rate cuts [10][11]. - The ongoing trend of central banks, including China's, increasing gold reserves is seen as a supportive factor for gold prices [8][11]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current economic environment, characterized by weakening dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks, will continue to favor gold as a safe-haven asset [11][12]. - The narrative of "de-dollarization" and the increasing allocation of gold assets by emerging market central banks are expected to drive long-term demand for gold [11][12].

9月1日，A股市场继续上攻。尽管金融股表现不佳并拖累了大盘，但沪指仍微幅上涨。 科技成长股依旧火热，创业板指逼近3000点。市场交易活跃度较高，日成交额微降至2.78万亿元，但市场分化明 显，有3208只个股收涨。截至8月29日，沪深京两融余额增至2.26万亿元。 多位受访人士表示，当下需要注意一些风险。例如，TMT（科技、媒体和通信）与医药板块短期交易拥挤，融资 盘占比抬升。一旦监管层对量化交易或两融窗口指导，高弹性板块可能出现剧烈回撤。预计本周指数仍将呈"沪稳深 强"的震荡抬升格局，即沪指在3850至3930点区间反复拉扯，创指则有望挑战2600点上方的筹码密集区。 3208只个股收涨 | 名称 | . | ****** | 最新 | 总市值 | 成交额 | 周涨幅% | 月涨幅% | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属(申) | | | 3.46 6635.29 | 41773 Z | 1763亿 | BA6 | 346 | 53.67 | | 院程科技 | 1 | 13.43 | 22.38 ...

截至发稿，COMEX黄金报3543.4美元/盎司，伦敦现货黄金报3469.86美元/盎司。这已是国际金价连续第五个交易日上涨。 黄金、白银期货价格9月双双迎来"开门红"。 9月1日，COMEX黄金主力合约价格快速拉升，盘中最高触及3552.4美元/盎司，日内涨幅超1%，突破8月高点再创历史新高，今年以来累计涨幅扩 大至约35%。 同日，伦敦现货黄金价格同步攀升，最高达3486.16美元/盎司，距今年3500美元的历史高点仅不足1%。 此外，COMEX白银期货价格也于9月1日上午刷新历史新高，盘中最高触及41.64美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅达41%，超过黄金同期涨幅。 国际金价五连涨、 9月1日，COMEX黄金主力合约价格快速拉升，盘中最高触及3552.4美元/盎司，再创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金价格同步攀升，最高达3486.16美元/ 盎司。 多重利好刺激贵金属价格走高 谈及贵金属价格走高的原因，一位贵金属分析师对智通财经记者表示，主要是纽约期货相对于伦敦现货的溢价率回到年内高位，与二者关税预期 重新强化有关。剔除关税的因素，对应基本面就是白宫无视通胀预期走高强压美联储降息，宏观点说是降低美元资产信用，微观点说是再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is concerned about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased investor risk aversion and a significant rise in international gold prices, which saw a monthly increase of over 5% in August, the best performance since April of this year [1][3]. Gold Price Outlook - Multiple institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with UBS predicting that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce next year, and adjusting their 2026 price targets to $3,600 and $3,700 per ounce for March and June respectively [3][4]. - Citibank has also increased its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating economic growth and inflation prospects in the U.S. as key drivers [4]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with potential for prices to reach $3,810 to $3,880 if central bank purchases exceed expectations [4]. Mining Companies Performance - Gold mining companies have reported significant profit growth, with all 11 listed gold mining companies showing positive net profit growth in the first half of the year [6][10]. - Shandong Gold achieved a revenue of 56.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.01%, and a net profit of 2.808 billion yuan, up 102.98% year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and optimized cost control [9][10]. - Western Gold reported a revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a 69.01% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 131.94% due to increased gold production and higher prices [10]. Investment Trends - The rise in gold prices has led domestic asset management institutions to recognize the importance of gold in asset allocation, with nearly 45% of 515 FOF products now holding gold ETFs, up from 192 last year [4][5]. - The recent policy allowing insurance companies to invest in gold is expected to bring approximately 200 billion yuan in incremental funds to the gold market [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the upcoming domestic demand peak are expected to support the prices of precious metals, particularly gold and silver [4][5]. - It anticipates a strong demand season for copper and aluminum, with prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [5][9]. - The report notes that tin prices are likely to show resilience due to tight supply conditions, while antimony prices are under pressure from weak demand [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 3.37% increase in the week from August 25 to August 29, outperforming the broader market [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rare earths (+17.19%), tungsten (+14.70%), and silver (+12.45%) [21]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - China's industrial profits for July showed a year-on-year decline of 1.5%, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.3% [27]. - The U.S. second-quarter core PCE price index was reported at 2.5%, aligning with expectations, indicating stable inflation [27]. 3. Precious Metals Market Data - London gold prices rose to $3,429.15 per ounce, an increase of $90.85 (2.72%) from August 21 [30]. - Silver prices also increased to $38.80 per ounce, up $1.24 (3.29%) [30]. 4. Industrial Metals Data - Copper prices on the LME closed at $9,875 per ton, up $150 (1.54%) from August 22 [41]. - Aluminum prices in China were reported at 20,720 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 30 yuan [42]. 5. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, reflecting a favorable investment outlook [12]. - Specific stocks recommended include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, and Huaxi Securities among others [13].

Group 1 - Precious metal prices have strengthened, with international gold prices rising for the fifth consecutive trading day, reaching a record high of $3553.8 per ounce on COMEX and spot gold surpassing $3480 per ounce, nearing the historical high set in April [1] - Spot silver prices have also broken the $40 per ounce mark for the first time since 2011, with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, currently reported at $40.574 per ounce, reflecting a 2.22% rise [1] Group 2 - Domestic gold stocks surged, with companies like Zhongjin Gold, Western Gold, and Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, while Shandong Gold and Chifeng Gold rose over 7% [3] - Some gold jewelry brands have also seen price increases, with Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry's gold physical prices rising to 1027 yuan, an increase of 1.18% [3] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that the upward potential for gold remains significant, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and recent inflation data showing a 2.9% year-on-year increase in the core personal consumption expenditure price index [4] - In August, international gold prices saw a cumulative increase of over 5%, marking the best monthly performance since April [4] - Financial institutions suggest that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing global economic pressures and geopolitical risks, with recommendations for continued investment in gold [4] Group 4 - The market has seen a trend towards "gold substitutes," particularly silver and platinum, as consumers seek more affordable alternatives to gold jewelry amid rising gold prices [5] - Analysts believe that precious metals still have further upward potential, with silver and platinum maintaining long-term investment value, although short-term trading risks may increase [5][6] Group 5 - Silver possesses not only safe-haven and monetary attributes but also significant industrial properties, making it a more complex investment compared to gold [6] - The volatility of silver is higher than that of gold, which may increase investment difficulty, prompting experts to advise investors to clarify their investment objectives to avoid impulsive decisions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to experience a strong upward trend, with significant inflows into related ETFs and rising prices for key metals like gold and industrial metals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) surged by 3.68%, reaching its highest point since September 2021, with a trading volume of 50.98 million yuan, a 133% increase from the previous period, marking the third-highest in history [1]. - The ETF saw a net subscription of 49.2 million units, with a total net inflow of 28.4 million yuan over the past five days and 40.96 million yuan over the past ten days, indicating strong market confidence in the sector [1]. Group 2: Price Drivers - COMEX gold prices reached a historical high of $3,557.1 per ounce, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to exceed 80% in September [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lead to a depreciation of the dollar, making dollar-denominated metals cheaper and boosting global demand [2]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Leading gold stocks such as Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold, and Western Gold hit their daily limit, with other companies like Huayu Mining and Jinchuan Group also experiencing significant gains [3]. Group 4: Sector Composition - As of the end of August, the non-ferrous metal ETF and its linked funds track the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, and lithium accounting for 25.3%, 14.2%, 13.8%, 13.6%, and 7.6% of the index, respectively, providing a diversified investment opportunity [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about precious and industrial metals, citing ongoing monetary easing and favorable trends in the fundamentals of certain metals, which are expected to elevate price levels [2].