Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to continued pressure on mid-to-high-end demand, but there are expectations for profit improvement in the coming years [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan, down 37.10% [1]. - The total revenue including contract liabilities was 1.617 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.62%, while cash sales amounted to 1.623 billion yuan, down 15.34%, indicating better cash collection performance compared to revenue [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 69.36%, a decrease of 4.79 percentage points year-on-year, likely influenced by a shift in product mix [3]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.46%, while low-end liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.59%, with the decline rate slowing compared to previous periods [2]. - Revenue from domestic sales was 494 million yuan, down 8.96%, while revenue from outside the province was 949 million yuan, down 33.25% [2]. - The number of distributors decreased to 2,621, a reduction of 42 compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Future Outlook - The company has announced a stock incentive plan aimed at motivating employees, with targets for revenue growth of no less than 20%, 36%, and 55% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, and net profit growth targets of no less than 164%, 231%, and 309% [4]. - Based on Q1 2025 performance, the company expects revenues of 5.789 billion yuan, 6.332 billion yuan, and 6.799 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 921 million yuan, 1.165 billion yuan, and 1.417 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential [5].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the liquor company Jiu Gui Jiu has been declining, with significant drops in revenue and net profit reported for both the first quarter of 2024 and the previous year [2][3][11]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Jiu Gui Jiu achieved revenue of 344.04 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.34% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.71 million yuan, down 56.78% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 31.45 million yuan, a decrease of 54.76% [3][4]. - For the full year 2023, the company reported total revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, a decline of 49.7%, and a net profit of 12.49 million yuan, down 97.72% [4][5][6]. Product and Segment Performance - All product lines except the Xiangquan series saw revenue declines last year, with the Neican series down 67.06% and the Jiu Gui series down 49.32% [5][6]. - The Xiangquan series, however, experienced a revenue increase of 7.64% [5][6]. Market Trends and Challenges - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a transition period, with high channel inventory and pressure on market prices for various brands [13]. - Increased competition is leading to a concentration of market share among leading companies, exacerbating the "Matthew Effect" in the industry [13]. Shareholder Information - As of March 31, 2024, the total number of shareholders for Jiu Gui Jiu was 142,300, a decrease of 5.26% from the end of the previous year [11]. - Despite the continuous decline in performance, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 195 million yuan, which exceeds 100% of the net profit for 2024 [11]. Stock Performance - Jiu Gui Jiu's stock price has been on a downward trend since September 2021, dropping over 78.83% from its peak of 273.29 yuan per share [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][11] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue at 1.58 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, and net profit at 350 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [4] - Despite short-term pressures, the company is expected to focus on its core products and improve in the long term, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 600 million, 680 million, and 760 million yuan respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 7,081 million yuan - 2024A: 5,357 million yuan (down 24.3% YoY) - 2025E: 5,802 million yuan (up 8.3% YoY) - 2026E: 6,428 million yuan (up 10.8% YoY) - 2027E: 7,090 million yuan (up 10.3% YoY) [7] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 1,771 million yuan - 2024A: 346 million yuan (down 80.5% YoY) - 2025E: 600 million yuan (up 73.6% YoY) - 2026E: 678 million yuan (up 13.0% YoY) - 2027E: 757 million yuan (up 11.6% YoY) [7] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 74.5% in 2023A, expected to decline to 63.2% in 2025E - Net Margin: 25.0% in 2023A, expected to rise to 10.3% in 2025E [7][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E Ratio: 10.7 in 2023A, expected to rise to 31.6 in 2025E - P/B Ratio: 2.6 in 2023A, expected to remain around 2.6 in 2025E [7][8] Market and Operational Insights - The company’s high-end liquor revenue in Q1 2025 was 1.23 billion yuan, down 28% YoY, while low-end liquor revenue was 210 million yuan, down 13% YoY [8] - E-commerce channels showed growth, with revenue of 200 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 37% YoY [8] - The company’s total market capitalization is 19 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 333 million shares [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gaining attention due to increased external uncertainties and positive domestic policy signals, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth [12][16] - The liquor sector is expected to show a "front low, back high" performance trend for the year, with a focus on inventory digestion in the first half and gradual demand recovery in the second half [17][32] - The consumer goods sector, particularly those related to the catering supply chain and benefiting from fertility policy catalysts, is highlighted for potential investment opportunities [39] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Expectations and Industry Focus - Increased external uncertainties have led to a heightened focus on domestic demand as a crucial element for economic growth [12] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption have positively influenced market confidence, with a comprehensive action plan to enhance consumer spending [13][16] 2. Liquor Sector - Liquor sales during the Spring Festival saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 10%, with a focus on inventory management during the off-peak season [17] - High-end liquor demand remains stable, while mid-range and regional brands are experiencing varied performance based on market conditions [19] - Major liquor companies are engaging in share buybacks and increasing shareholdings to bolster market confidence [24][30] 3. Consumer Goods Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors related to the catering supply chain, with specific attention to the seasoning, beer, dairy, and snack segments [39] - The seasoning sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in restaurant consumption, while the beer sector is poised for growth due to the resurgence of dining scenarios [40] - Dairy demand is anticipated to rise following the introduction of fertility subsidies in various regions, which could positively impact dairy company performance [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [6]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector is in line with expectations during the earnings disclosure period, with a focus on the recovery of consumer demand and the impact of upcoming consumption policies [4][6]. - The white liquor segment is currently experiencing a weak performance, but there is optimism for recovery as policies to boost consumption are anticipated to be implemented [4]. - The report highlights the importance of channel health and market stability for liquor companies, with several firms expected to benefit from valuation recovery and increased buyback activities [4][6]. Summary by Sections Industry News - In the first quarter, food and beverage prices in Shandong decreased by 1.4%. A 560 million yuan liquor project in Zunyi is set to commence production in September, and an additional 100 million yuan liquor project has been initiated in Guizhou [15]. Company News - Guizhou Moutai achieved 2.68% of its revenue target in the first quarter. Luzhou Laojiao has established an investment company [15]. Investment Views - The white liquor sector is expected to recover as consumption policies are implemented. The overall valuation of the sector is considered low, with many companies engaging in buybacks or increases in holdings, indicating strong potential for valuation recovery [4]. - Recommended stocks include: Water Well, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiu Gui Jiu for their valuation advantages; and Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, Gujing Gongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu for overall recommendations [4][6]. Key Company Feedback - The report includes performance forecasts for key companies, with Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao all receiving "Buy" ratings based on their expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is maintaining active expense investments during the peak season to promote sales, with a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3] - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4] - Revenue and profit are expected to gradually improve as the company enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2] - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow, which increased by 106.8% year-on-year to 224 million yuan [3] Market and Channel Analysis - The company has optimized its channel structure, with a total of 2,621 distributors as of the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 42 from the end of 2024 [2] - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 36.7% year-on-year to 205 million yuan, reflecting a trend towards online sales in the liquor market [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] - The stock incentive plan aims to motivate employees with performance targets that require significant revenue and profit growth over the next three years [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][19]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is maintaining active expenditure during the peak season to promote sales, with a sales expense ratio increasing by 3.03 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4]. - The company expects a turning point in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, and net profits of 422 million yuan, an increase of 21.9% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market and Channel Analysis - The company’s provincial revenue was 494 million yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year, while out-of-province revenue was 949 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [2]. - The e-commerce channel saw revenue of 205 million yuan, an increase of 36.7% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in online sales [2]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting revenues of 5.08 billion yuan in 2025, 5.375 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.756 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 422 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 508 million yuan [5][6]. - The stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 45.0 for 2025 and 42.1 for 2026, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's Q1 2025 report shows significant revenue and profit growth, indicating a successful strategy amidst industry adjustments [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.576 billion, a 75.68% increase quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 346 million, surpassing the total net profit of 345.8 million for the entire year of 2024 [1] - Gross margin improved to 69.36%, and net cash flow from operating activities increased by 106.76% to 224.2 million [2] - Operating costs and management expenses decreased by 11.25% and 25.24% respectively, enhancing profit margins [2] Market Strategy - The company implemented a "stable price, control inventory, strong sales" strategy, leading to a 41 million increase in contract liabilities, reflecting restored channel confidence [2] - E-commerce sales grew to 205 million, a 36.71% year-on-year increase, indicating successful channel optimization [2] Product Development - Focus on core products led to Q1 revenue of 1.234 billion from mid-to-high-end liquor and 208 million from ordinary liquor, accounting for 85.58% and 14.42% of total revenue respectively [3] - The company aims to strengthen its position in the 400 yuan price range and expand into rural markets [3] Long-term Growth and Innovation - R&D expenses surged from 8.39 million to 95.33 million from 2019 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 62.59% [5] - The company holds 45 invention patents and has developed over 144 new products, enhancing its technological capabilities [5] - Brand value for "Shede" reached 100.655 billion and "Tuopai" 72.196 billion, totaling 172.851 billion, a 51.48% increase since 2020 [6] Industry Outlook - The industry is viewed as undergoing a short-term adjustment, with companies demonstrating resilience and strategic focus expected to thrive [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the market and operational adjustments needed to improve performance [1][2]. Revenue Analysis - The company achieved revenue of 1.58 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1% [1]. - Revenue breakdown by product shows mid-to-high-end and regular liquor generating 1.23 billion and 0.21 billion yuan respectively, with declines of 28.5% and 12.6% year-on-year [2]. - Regional revenue analysis indicates that domestic, external, and e-commerce channels generated 0.49 billion, 0.95 billion, and 0.20 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -9.0%, -33.2%, and +36.7% [2]. - E-commerce now accounts for approximately 14% of total revenue, reflecting a breakthrough in this channel [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.35 billion yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points to 69.4%, while the net profit margin fell by 4.2 percentage points to 22.0% [2]. - Sales expenses increased by 3.0 percentage points, and the balance of contract liabilities rose to 0.21 billion yuan, indicating a need for careful cash flow management [2]. Future Outlook - The company has set ambitious targets for 2025, aiming for revenue growth of no less than 20% or net profit growth of at least 164% [3]. - The company is focusing on core brands and implementing a flatter organizational structure to enhance operational efficiency [3]. - Profitability is expected to gradually recover, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 showing significant growth of 164%, 25.5%, and 23.8% respectively [4]. Valuation and Investment Rating - The company’s estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.74, 3.44, and 4.26 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20.8, 16.6, and 13.4 times [4]. - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" based on the anticipated recovery in profitability and revenue growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.58 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue structure shows that high-end and regular liquor generated 1.23 billion yuan and 210 million yuan respectively in Q1 2025, with year-on-year declines of 28.5% and 12.6% [3]. - The company is focusing on improving its operational efficiency through a flat organizational structure and targeted assessments [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 4.7%, with net profit increasing by 164% to 913 million yuan [5][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.74 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.8, 16.6, and 13.4 for the years 2025 to 2027 [5][10]. Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 22.0%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 69.4% [3]. - The balance of contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 was 210 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40 million yuan [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has added 215 new distributors while 257 exited, resulting in a net decrease of 42 distributors, leaving a total of 2,621 at the end of Q1 2025 [3]. - The company’s strategic focus includes enhancing its e-commerce channel, which saw a revenue increase of 36.7% year-on-year, contributing approximately 14% to total revenue [3].