Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.65% on September 26, with 10 industries experiencing gains, led by the petroleum and petrochemical sector, which rose by 1.17%, and the environmental protection sector, which increased by 0.38% [1] - The computer and electronics sectors saw the largest declines, with drops of 3.26% and 2.75%, respectively [1] - Overall, there was a net outflow of 83.579 billion yuan in the main funds across the two markets, with 5 industries seeing net inflows [1] Industry Performance - The automotive industry had the highest net inflow of funds at 0.882 billion yuan, despite a decline of 0.56% in its stock price [1] - The banking sector also saw a slight increase of 0.08% with a net inflow of 0.566 billion yuan [1] - A total of 26 industries experienced net outflows, with the electronics sector leading with a net outflow of 29.836 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with a net outflow of 13.807 billion yuan [1] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry declined by 0.15% but had a net inflow of 0.128 billion yuan, with 69 out of 124 stocks rising [2] - Guizhou Moutai led the inflow with 0.373 billion yuan, followed by Jinzi Ham and Wancheng Group with inflows of 0.115 billion yuan and 0.0429 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The sector also had 17 stocks with net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, with Wuliangye, Yangyuan Beverage, and ST Juewei leading the outflows at 0.125 billion yuan, 0.0729 billion yuan, and 0.0409 billion yuan, respectively [2][4] Fund Flow in Food and Beverage Sector - Top inflow stocks included: - Guizhou Moutai: -0.28% change, 0.373 billion yuan inflow [2] - Jinzi Ham: +6.61% change, 0.115 billion yuan inflow [2] - Wancheng Group: +0.43% change, 0.0429 billion yuan inflow [2] - Top outflow stocks included: - Wuliangye: -1.11% change, -0.125 billion yuan outflow [4] - Yangyuan Beverage: +10.01% change, -0.0729 billion yuan outflow [4] - ST Juewei: -3.40% change, -0.0409 billion yuan outflow [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [53]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the focus on liquor sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, suggesting that consumer demand remains under pressure, particularly for high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai [4][48]. - The report indicates a structural opportunity in mass-market products, with varying performance across different sub-sectors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring demand and cost indicators in the beer sector and consumption recovery in the condiment sector [4][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From September 12 to September 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index fell by 5.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 6.76 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index during this period, with the baking sector experiencing the largest decline at -7.80% [13][14]. - Approximately 7% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Qianwei Yangchu (+21.90%) and Yangyuan Beverage (+16.80%) [15] . Industry Important Data Tracking Liquor Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of Feitian Moutai decreased to 1,765 RMB per bottle, while the price of Guojiao 1573 increased to 840 RMB per bottle [22]. Condiment Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of soybean meal was 2,988 RMB per ton, down 72 RMB from September 11, while the price of white sugar was 5,780 RMB per ton, down 110 RMB [25]. Beer Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the average price of barley was 2,230 RMB per ton, while the price of aluminum ingots was 20,710 RMB per ton, down 100 RMB [30]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.03 RMB per kilogram as of September 19, 2025 [37]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 RMB per kilogram as of September 25, 2025, down 0.49 RMB from September 11 [39]. Industry News - The report notes a slight decline in the national liquor price index in early September 2025, indicating ongoing market adjustments [41]. - The number of registered beer-related enterprises increased by 10.83% year-on-year from January to August 2025, reflecting a growing market [42]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquor sales during the upcoming holidays and suggests focusing on high-certainty liquor brands and mass-market products that benefit from policy catalysts [48].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a decline on September 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.18% to 3846.33 points, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector closed at 2244.21 points, down 0.19%, with the stock of JiuGuiJiu leading the decline at 1.87% [1] - Major liquor companies saw the following closing prices and percentage changes: - Kweichow Moutai: 1434.79 CNY, down 0.29% - Wuliangye: 120.29 CNY, down 1.01% - Shanxi Fenjiu: 189.82 CNY, down 1.34% - Luzhou Laojiao: 127.04 CNY, down 1.87% - Yanghe Brewery: 67.94 CNY, down 0.60% [1] Research Insights - Huachuang Food and Beverage's report indicates that the liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical bottoming process in three phases: supply clearance, supply-demand rebalancing, and demand improvement [1] - The upcoming third-quarter reports may signal the first turning point in supply and demand, with expectations of "accelerated pressure relief in reports and marginal demand improvement," marking a potential first layout opportunity for the sector [1] - The focus for the next year will be on continuously sensing forward-looking signals and gradually confirming a positive cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of instant retail in China's liquor market is expected to maintain double-digit growth in the coming years, driven by the competitive landscape of food delivery services by 2025 [1][3] Group 1: Instant Retail Growth - China's retail industry has evolved through traditional retail, e-commerce, and new retail, with instant retail significantly shortening delivery times and enhancing consumer choices [1][2] - The liquor instant retail market has seen a surge since its inception on platforms like 1919 and Jiuxiaoer, with four main channel models emerging: vertical, platform-based, warehouse-store integrated, and front warehouse models [1][2] Group 2: Drivers of Instant Retail - The rise of instant retail in liquor is attributed to changing consumer habits, with a growing demand for convenience and quick fulfillment of spontaneous needs [2] - Cost efficiency is achieved by reducing distribution layers and operational costs, coupled with subsidies from some platforms, leading to significant price advantages [2] - Supply-side drivers include channel partners seeking to capture new growth and brand owners willing to collaborate with channels for new product launches and promotions [2] Group 3: Impact on the Liquor Industry - Instant retail presents both opportunities and challenges for the liquor industry, offering efficient fulfillment and better reach to younger consumers, while potentially impacting brand image and pricing structures [3] - Historical trends indicate that changes in the liquor cycle often coincide with channel transformations, and the current deep adjustment in the industry necessitates adaptation to instant retail [3] - The instant retail market for liquor in China is projected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate approaching the mid-double digits, benefiting core categories like baijiu and beer [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The liquor retail channel is undergoing structural growth, with instant retail emerging as a highlight; recommended stocks include leading national brands and regional players with strong channel development capabilities [4] - Specific recommendations for baijiu include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jiansiyuan, and Guqingongjiu, while short-term elastic stocks include Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [4] - For beer, which is the second-largest category in liquor, recommended stocks include Qingdao Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and China Resources Beer, reflecting high participation in instant retail [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) announced a share reduction by its major shareholder, Huachuang Xinrui (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., which plans to reduce up to 16.20 million shares through block trading due to fund expiration and normal liquidation [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Reduction Details - Huachuang Xinrui currently holds 128 million shares, accounting for 10.50% of the total share capital, after acquiring shares in 2018 for 5.16 billion yuan [1]. - This is not the first reduction by Huachuang Xinrui; previous reductions occurred in September 2022 and February 2023, totaling 8.02 million shares, with profits of 1.492 billion yuan from these transactions [1][2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu has shown significant growth, with revenue increasing from 9.444 billion yuan in 2018 to 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, moving from the fifth to the third position in the industry [3]. - In a challenging year for the liquor industry, Shanxi Fenjiu was one of the six out of twenty A-share liquor companies to achieve growth in both revenue and net profit, reporting a revenue of 23.964 billion yuan (up 5.35%) and a net profit of 8.505 billion yuan (up 1.13%) in the first half of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) announced a share reduction plan by its major shareholder, Huachuang Xinrui (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., intending to reduce up to 16.20 million shares through block trading due to fund expiration and normal liquidation [2][4]. Shareholder Reduction Details - Huachuang Xinrui currently holds 128 million shares, accounting for 10.50% of the total share capital, after acquiring shares in 2018 for 5.16 billion yuan [2]. - Previous reductions by Huachuang Xinrui occurred in September 2022 and February 2023, totaling 8.02 million shares, with profits of 1.492 billion yuan from these transactions [2][3]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu has shown significant growth, with revenue increasing from 9.444 billion yuan in 2018 to 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, ranking third in the industry [4]. - In a challenging market, the company reported a revenue of 23.964 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, and a net profit of 8.505 billion yuan, up 1.13% [4]. - Despite the overall industry downturn, Shanxi Fenjiu increased its marketing expenses by 19.1% to 2.382 billion yuan, contrasting with many competitors who reduced marketing efforts [4].

Core Viewpoint - The eighth "China's Four Famous Liquor Cup" men's basketball invitational tournament emphasizes collaboration and innovation among the four major liquor brands, aiming to foster a community for mutual development and promote the high-quality growth of the Chinese liquor industry [1][5][17]. Group 1: Event Overview - The tournament is hosted by Moutai Group, Fenjiu Group, Luzhou Laojiao, and Xifeng Group, with the theme "Upholding Tradition and Innovation to Brew a Better Future" [1]. - The opening ceremony featured notable leaders from the four liquor companies and local sports officials, highlighting the importance of the event [3]. - The tournament includes six high-level matches over three days, showcasing the competitive spirit and skills of the participating teams [12]. Group 2: Leadership Insights - Leaders from the four major liquor companies discussed the structural changes and opportunities in the Chinese liquor industry during a pre-event meeting [14]. - Moutai's chairman emphasized the importance of enhancing product quality and cultural heritage to promote the internationalization of Chinese liquor [15]. - Fenjiu's chairman highlighted the need for the industry to embrace youthfulness and technological innovation to adapt to changing consumer trends [15]. - Luzhou Laojiao's chairman called for collaboration to build a healthy market ecosystem and promote the unique stories of Chinese liquor [15]. - Xifeng's chairman stressed the importance of maintaining quality and exploring diverse styles of Chinese liquor while fostering a spirit of cooperation [15]. Group 3: Cultural Significance - The tournament, first held in 1987, aims to blend sportsmanship with industry spirit, creating a blueprint for collaborative development [17]. - The event serves as a platform for the four major liquor brands to strengthen their bonds and drive the industry forward through shared values and cooperation [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) is experiencing active trading and has seen significant net inflows, indicating strong investor interest in the food and beverage sector amid positive market signals and upcoming consumption events [1][2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of September 25, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) showed a slight decline of 0.55% with a trading volume exceeding 24 million yuan and a premium/discount rate of 0.18% [1]. - The ETF has recorded a net subscription of 18 million units, reflecting strong demand from investors [2]. - The ETF has seen a continuous net inflow of funds for seven consecutive trading days, accumulating over 150 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Composition and Holdings - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which includes stocks from the beverage, packaged food, and meat industries [3]. - Major holdings in the ETF include leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Yili Group, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Haitian Flavoring & Food [3]. Group 3: Market and Consumption Trends - Recent reports indicate a positive outlook for the liquor market, with Moutai's management noting a significant recovery in terminal sales as the traditional double festival approaches [4]. - Various promotional activities are being launched to stimulate consumption, including a 10 million yuan tourism consumption voucher initiative in Haikou [3].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% to 3859.62 points, while the liquor sector experienced a decline, indicating mixed performance in the industry [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector index closed at 2259.28 points, down by 0.45%, with 16 liquor stocks experiencing declines [1] - Key liquor companies reported the following stock prices: - Kweichow Moutai at 1441.03 CNY, down 0.07% - Wuliangye at 122.00 CNY, up 0.30% - Shanxi Fenjiu at 194.28 CNY, down 0.17% - Luzhou Laojiao at 130.50 CNY, down 1.07% - Yanghe Brewery at 68.76 CNY, down 0.51% [1] Company Insights - Tianfeng Securities noted that liquor companies have begun preparations for the upcoming double festival, although the overall consumption environment remains under pressure [1] - The report highlighted a slight downward trend in the short-term prices of core high-end liquor, suggesting that better value propositions may stimulate sales [1] - Future focus will be on the recovery of the banquet market during the double festival [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to drive a peak in alcohol consumption, prompting regulatory actions to ensure product safety [1][3] - A joint inspection team was formed by the Salt Lake District Market Supervision Administration to conduct safety checks on alcoholic products in key retail locations, focusing on the safety of consumer products [1][3] - The inspection emphasized popular alcoholic beverages such as white wine, red wine, and beer, with a thorough examination of sourcing, quality, and labeling [3] Group 2 - Inspectors reviewed purchase ledgers and required documentation from retailers, specifically targeting well-known brands like "Fenjiu" and "Wuliangye" for authenticity verification [3] - Issues identified during inspections included incomplete purchase records and non-compliant labeling, leading to immediate corrective actions and follow-up checks to ensure compliance [3] - The administration plans to enhance market surveillance during the holiday period and maintain open channels for consumer complaints regarding counterfeit or expired products [3]