Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the liquor market is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on three companies in the consumer goods sector. The food and beverage index declined by 2.5%, ranking 23rd among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.6 percentage points. The soft drink sector (+0.9%), other food products (+0.0%), and meat products (-0.0%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor market is showing bottoming characteristics, with the consumer goods sector focusing on three companies. The liquor market's sales have improved slightly in Q3, but year-on-year declines persist due to the ongoing impact of alcohol bans on business consumption and overall consumer pressure [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 2.5%, ranking 23rd out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 3.6 percentage points. The soft drink sector, other food products, and meat products showed relatively better performance [12][13]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder in GDT auctions was $3,790 per ton, down 0.5% month-on-month but up 9.9% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, stable month-on-month but down 3.5% year-on-year [16][17]. Liquor Industry News - Moutai's terminal sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of over 20%. The company is deepening its reform process and emphasizing sustainable development, with an increased dividend rate [40][44]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: 1. Ximai Food: Stable growth in the oat business, with a downward trend in raw material costs expected to continue until 2027 [11]. 2. Weilong Delicious: New product launches are expected to stabilize the noodle product line, with significant growth in the konjac category [11]. 3. Bairun Co.: The cocktail business is expected to see slight growth, with a focus on new products and whiskey brand development [11][44].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Fenjiu Sealing Ceremony emphasizes the themes of "Respect for Heaven, Love for People, Heritage, and Innovation," showcasing the cultural roots of Fenjiu's 6,000-year brewing history and marking the 110th anniversary of its gold medal at the Panama International Exposition [1][8][12] Group 1: Event Overview - The ceremony took place on September 26, 2025, at the Fenjiu Cultural Scenic Area in Shanxi Province, featuring immersive performances and traditional rituals [1] - Notable attendees included leaders from the Shanxi Provincial Cultural Tourism Group, the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, and various literary figures, alongside Fenjiu Group executives and media representatives [3][4] Group 2: Cultural Significance - The Sealing Ceremony has evolved into a significant cultural IP within the industry, reflecting Fenjiu's commitment to innovation while honoring its historical roots [5][6] - The event serves as a platform for showcasing the cultural confidence of Chinese liquor and its high-quality development, with a focus on the themes of "Respect for Heaven, Love for People, Heritage, and Innovation" [8][12] Group 3: Performances and Themes - The ceremony featured various performances that illustrated the themes, including a dance representing the respect for nature, a narrative on the emotional connection to the craft, and a demonstration of traditional brewing techniques [9][10] - The closing performance, "New Glory," symbolized Fenjiu's spirit of innovation and breakthrough while honoring its legacy [10][12]

Investment Dynamics - China Resources Holdings' subsidiary Huachuang Xinxin plans to reduce its stake in Shanxi Fenjiu by up to 16.20 million shares, representing a maximum of 1.33% of the company's total share capital. The company currently holds 10.50% of Shanxi Fenjiu [3] - Huachuang Xinxin has previously reduced its holdings, with a total of 6.30 million shares sold between December 2024 and February 2025. The parent company, China Resources, maintains confidence in Shanxi Fenjiu's future despite the reduction [3] Brand Dynamics - LVMH's beauty incubator Kendo has sold its vegan makeup brand KVD Beauty to private equity fund Windsong Global, marking Kendo's first brand sale. KVD will join the multi-brand beauty platform Belle Brands [11] - Netflix has signed a global co-marketing agreement with Anheuser-Busch, focusing on promotional activities for shows like "The Gentlemen" and "Culinary Class Wars," featuring Budweiser and other brands during major events [14] - McDonald's is launching a Mid-Autumn Festival campaign in collaboration with the game "Black Myth: Wukong," featuring themed products and events across over 7,100 restaurants [17] - Lanzhou Beef Noodle has entered a strategic partnership with Coca-Cola to promote cultural heritage and develop co-branded products through various marketing channels [20] - The tea brand "Bawang Chaji" is opening new stores in Hong Kong, expanding its market presence since entering in 2024 [23] - Alibaba's Amap has waived the annual entry fee for all restaurant merchants and is providing various support services to enhance business opportunities [26] - IKEA's parent company Inter IKEA Group announced a CEO transition, with Jakub Jankowski set to take over in January 2026, aiming to drive international manufacturing and digitalization [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly on high-end liquor and leading consumer goods companies, indicating long-term investment value in stocks like Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Qingdao Beer [6][8]. Core Viewpoints - Despite a recovery in liquor demand during the peak season, the industry is still undergoing adjustments, and patience is required for the fundamental recovery [6][7]. - The liquor sector is entering a destocking phase, but achieving a balance between volume and price will take time, with expected pressure on Q3 reports [6][7]. - The consumer goods sector is expected to benefit from cost advantages and new product opportunities driven by evolving consumer preferences [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 2.49% last week, with liquor down 3.03%, underperforming the broader market [5][6]. - Key stocks showing significant gains include Yangyuan Beverage (up 32.49%) and Jinzi Ham (up 11.93%) [5]. 2. Liquor Sector Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's bottle price is 1800 RMB, up 45 RMB week-on-week, while the box price is 1830 RMB, up 60 RMB [7][10]. - The industry faces challenges such as high inventory, weak demand recovery, and price discrepancies leading to unprofitable channels [7][8]. 3. Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The report highlights a favorable outlook for dairy products due to declining costs and improving supply-demand dynamics, recommending stocks like Yili and New Dairy [8]. - The beer industry remains stable, with recommendations for Yanjing Beer and Qingdao Beer [8]. 4. Market Performance - The food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 2.79 percentage points, with the liquor sector lagging by 3.33 percentage points [44].

从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1435.00元/股，下跌0.28%；五粮液收盘价达120.17元/股，下跌1.11%；山西汾酒收盘价达191.16元/股，下跌0.64%；泸州老窖收盘价达127.58元/股， 华创食饮在其研报中指出，当前阶段，酒企报表受损但维护渠道生态，酒企端不再强硬压货，并放缓回款进度要求，减少渠道资金占用，持续为渠道纾压，因此经销商虽订单、出货总额有所下滑 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）9月26日尾盘，沪指3828.11点下跌0.65%。白酒板块2239.12点收盘下跌0.41%，其中11只白酒股下跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in stock prices, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye seeing decreases, while the overall cash flow situation for distributors is gradually improving despite lower order volumes [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11 points, down 0.65%, with the liquor sector index at 2239.12 points, down 0.41% [1] - Eleven liquor stocks reported declines, including Kweichow Moutai at 1435.00 CNY per share (down 0.28%), Wuliangye at 120.17 CNY (down 1.11%), Shanxi Fenjiu at 191.16 CNY (down 0.64%), Luzhou Laojiao at 127.58 CNY (down 1.45%), and Yanghe Brewery at 67.95 CNY (down 0.59%) [1] Company Summary - Huachuang Food and Beverage's report indicates that while liquor companies are facing damaged financial statements, they are focusing on maintaining channel ecosystems and are not aggressively pushing inventory [1] - Companies are easing the pressure on cash flow by slowing down the collection of payments, which reduces the financial burden on distributors [1] - Distributors are managing cash flow more cautiously, cleaning up accounts receivable from end customers, and requiring cash payments for purchases, leading to a gradual improvement in cash flow [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.65% on September 26, with 10 industries experiencing gains, led by the petroleum and petrochemical sector, which rose by 1.17%, and the environmental protection sector, which increased by 0.38% [1] - The computer and electronics sectors saw the largest declines, with drops of 3.26% and 2.75%, respectively [1] - Overall, there was a net outflow of 83.579 billion yuan in the main funds across the two markets, with 5 industries seeing net inflows [1] Industry Performance - The automotive industry had the highest net inflow of funds at 0.882 billion yuan, despite a decline of 0.56% in its stock price [1] - The banking sector also saw a slight increase of 0.08% with a net inflow of 0.566 billion yuan [1] - A total of 26 industries experienced net outflows, with the electronics sector leading with a net outflow of 29.836 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with a net outflow of 13.807 billion yuan [1] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry declined by 0.15% but had a net inflow of 0.128 billion yuan, with 69 out of 124 stocks rising [2] - Guizhou Moutai led the inflow with 0.373 billion yuan, followed by Jinzi Ham and Wancheng Group with inflows of 0.115 billion yuan and 0.0429 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The sector also had 17 stocks with net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, with Wuliangye, Yangyuan Beverage, and ST Juewei leading the outflows at 0.125 billion yuan, 0.0729 billion yuan, and 0.0409 billion yuan, respectively [2][4] Fund Flow in Food and Beverage Sector - Top inflow stocks included: - Guizhou Moutai: -0.28% change, 0.373 billion yuan inflow [2] - Jinzi Ham: +6.61% change, 0.115 billion yuan inflow [2] - Wancheng Group: +0.43% change, 0.0429 billion yuan inflow [2] - Top outflow stocks included: - Wuliangye: -1.11% change, -0.125 billion yuan outflow [4] - Yangyuan Beverage: +10.01% change, -0.0729 billion yuan outflow [4] - ST Juewei: -3.40% change, -0.0409 billion yuan outflow [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [53]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the focus on liquor sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, suggesting that consumer demand remains under pressure, particularly for high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai [4][48]. - The report indicates a structural opportunity in mass-market products, with varying performance across different sub-sectors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring demand and cost indicators in the beer sector and consumption recovery in the condiment sector [4][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From September 12 to September 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index fell by 5.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 6.76 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index during this period, with the baking sector experiencing the largest decline at -7.80% [13][14]. - Approximately 7% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Qianwei Yangchu (+21.90%) and Yangyuan Beverage (+16.80%) [15] . Industry Important Data Tracking Liquor Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of Feitian Moutai decreased to 1,765 RMB per bottle, while the price of Guojiao 1573 increased to 840 RMB per bottle [22]. Condiment Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of soybean meal was 2,988 RMB per ton, down 72 RMB from September 11, while the price of white sugar was 5,780 RMB per ton, down 110 RMB [25]. Beer Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the average price of barley was 2,230 RMB per ton, while the price of aluminum ingots was 20,710 RMB per ton, down 100 RMB [30]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.03 RMB per kilogram as of September 19, 2025 [37]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 RMB per kilogram as of September 25, 2025, down 0.49 RMB from September 11 [39]. Industry News - The report notes a slight decline in the national liquor price index in early September 2025, indicating ongoing market adjustments [41]. - The number of registered beer-related enterprises increased by 10.83% year-on-year from January to August 2025, reflecting a growing market [42]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquor sales during the upcoming holidays and suggests focusing on high-certainty liquor brands and mass-market products that benefit from policy catalysts [48].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a decline on September 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.18% to 3846.33 points, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector closed at 2244.21 points, down 0.19%, with the stock of JiuGuiJiu leading the decline at 1.87% [1] - Major liquor companies saw the following closing prices and percentage changes: - Kweichow Moutai: 1434.79 CNY, down 0.29% - Wuliangye: 120.29 CNY, down 1.01% - Shanxi Fenjiu: 189.82 CNY, down 1.34% - Luzhou Laojiao: 127.04 CNY, down 1.87% - Yanghe Brewery: 67.94 CNY, down 0.60% [1] Research Insights - Huachuang Food and Beverage's report indicates that the liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical bottoming process in three phases: supply clearance, supply-demand rebalancing, and demand improvement [1] - The upcoming third-quarter reports may signal the first turning point in supply and demand, with expectations of "accelerated pressure relief in reports and marginal demand improvement," marking a potential first layout opportunity for the sector [1] - The focus for the next year will be on continuously sensing forward-looking signals and gradually confirming a positive cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of instant retail in China's liquor market is expected to maintain double-digit growth in the coming years, driven by the competitive landscape of food delivery services by 2025 [1][3] Group 1: Instant Retail Growth - China's retail industry has evolved through traditional retail, e-commerce, and new retail, with instant retail significantly shortening delivery times and enhancing consumer choices [1][2] - The liquor instant retail market has seen a surge since its inception on platforms like 1919 and Jiuxiaoer, with four main channel models emerging: vertical, platform-based, warehouse-store integrated, and front warehouse models [1][2] Group 2: Drivers of Instant Retail - The rise of instant retail in liquor is attributed to changing consumer habits, with a growing demand for convenience and quick fulfillment of spontaneous needs [2] - Cost efficiency is achieved by reducing distribution layers and operational costs, coupled with subsidies from some platforms, leading to significant price advantages [2] - Supply-side drivers include channel partners seeking to capture new growth and brand owners willing to collaborate with channels for new product launches and promotions [2] Group 3: Impact on the Liquor Industry - Instant retail presents both opportunities and challenges for the liquor industry, offering efficient fulfillment and better reach to younger consumers, while potentially impacting brand image and pricing structures [3] - Historical trends indicate that changes in the liquor cycle often coincide with channel transformations, and the current deep adjustment in the industry necessitates adaptation to instant retail [3] - The instant retail market for liquor in China is projected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate approaching the mid-double digits, benefiting core categories like baijiu and beer [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The liquor retail channel is undergoing structural growth, with instant retail emerging as a highlight; recommended stocks include leading national brands and regional players with strong channel development capabilities [4] - Specific recommendations for baijiu include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jiansiyuan, and Guqingongjiu, while short-term elastic stocks include Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [4] - For beer, which is the second-largest category in liquor, recommended stocks include Qingdao Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and China Resources Beer, reflecting high participation in instant retail [4]