Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua expects limited impact on coal production from the recent capacity verification by the energy bureau, which checks for over-extraction exceeding 10% [1] Group 1 - Investors inquired about the potential impact of the energy bureau's verification on China Shenhua's performance, especially in light of a significant increase in commodity futures prices by over 30% [1] - The company confirmed that it complies with coal mining production arrangements and anticipates that the capacity verification will have a limited effect on its coal output [1]

大家好欢迎参加华源公用大能源新型电力系统白皮书汇报目前的形势与我们的任务煤炭行业中期策略目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始播报声明 请参会人员务必注意本次电话会议交流内容仅限参会人员内部参考任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对电话会议任何内容进行泄露或外发请勿以任何方式索要、泄露、散布、转发电话会议纪要任何泄露电话会议纪要等信息的行为均为侵权行为华源证券保留追究泄露转发者法律责任的权利各位投资者好我是华源证券煤炭分析师邱达志 今天晚上跟大家在线上去分享我们煤炭的中期策略以及对于近期煤炭板内卷查超产以及期货方面的一些观点今天的题目是煤炭中期策略但实际上这个策略是三个月前构思和撰写的所以跟当前的形式还是有一定的区别 所以我们也会结合本策略报告以及他所提供给我们的一个指导对于目前煤炭行业查超产的影响进行一个分析实际上这篇报告是对于成本进行了一个详细的分析我们提出了在两个月前煤炭因为成本的倒挂其实已经到了一个底部然后在当时坚定的去推荐了 7月22号发酵的煤炭茶超产事件进行一个回顾以及对于它的政策的发展进行一定的展望第三部分我们也可以稍再讲一下目前的焦煤的期货它是怎么样去展望因为上周四我们也跟焦煤的专家进行了交流也可以将交 ...

Core Insights - China Shenhua (601088) reported a coal production of 29.3 million tons in July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [1] - The coal sales volume in July 2025 was 37.8 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, the total coal production was 194.7 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The total coal sales volume for the same period was 242.7 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [1] Power Generation and Sales - In July 2025, the total power generation reached 21.95 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - The total electricity sales volume in July 2025 was 20.58 billion kWh, which is a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] - From January to July 2025, the total power generation was 120.73 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [1] - The total electricity sales volume for the same period was 113.49 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對 其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內 容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 (在中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) (股份代碼: 01088) 2025 年 7 月份主要運營數據公告 (海外監管公告) 中國神華能源股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會及全體董事保證本公告內容不 存在任何虛假記載、誤導性陳述或者重大遺漏，並對其內容的真實性、準確性和完整 性承擔法律責任。 | | | | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 運營指標 | | 單位 | | | (重述後) | | (%) | | | | | | 7 月 | 累計 | 7 月 | 累計 | 7 月 | 累計 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | | 商品煤產量 1. | | 百萬噸 | 29.3 | 194.7 | 27.5 | 195.7 | 6.5 | (0. ...

中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （重述后） | | （%） | | | | | 7 月 | 累计 | 7 月 | 累计 | 7 月 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 商品煤产量 1. | 百万吨 | 29.3 | 194.7 | 27.5 | 195.7 | 6.5 | (0.5) | | 2. 煤炭销售量 | 百万吨 | 37.8 | 242.7 | 40.0 | 270.0 | (5.5) | (10.1) | | （二）运输 | | | | | | | | | 1. 自有铁路运输周转量 | 十亿吨公里 | 26.3 | 179.1 | 24.3 | 185.7 | 8.2 | (3.6) | | 2. 黄骅港装船量 | 百万吨 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The merger and acquisition (M&A) market in China has become increasingly active since the implementation of the "Six Merger and Acquisition Guidelines" in September last year, with various companies announcing M&A plans and progress in August 2023 [1][2][3] Group 1: M&A Activity - In August 2023, several A-share listed companies, including China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd., Southern Black Sesame Group Co., Ltd., Kunwu Jiuding Investment Holdings Co., Ltd., and Shanghai Xindao Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., disclosed M&A-related plans or progress [1] - Black Sesame announced plans to transfer approximately 20% of its total share capital to a state-owned enterprise in Guangxi, which will change its controlling shareholder and actual controller [1][2] - Jiuding Investment plans to acquire a 53.2897% stake in Nanjing Shenyuan Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. for 213 million yuan, aiming to expand its industrial layout and cultivate new growth points [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The M&A activities reflect a growing emphasis on resource integration across both traditional and emerging industries, driven by the need for industrial upgrades and new productivity development [1][3] - China Shenhua's significant acquisition plan aims to consolidate coal and energy assets, potentially reshaping the industry landscape and enhancing market competitiveness [3] - Emerging industries such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence are also witnessing frequent M&A activities, as companies seek to acquire core technologies and talent to accelerate growth [4] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The involvement of various stakeholders, including state-owned enterprises, private equity, and listed companies, indicates a heightened focus on M&A under policy guidance [3] - Acquiring "hard technology" companies is becoming a trend, as these firms possess high growth potential and can provide new business growth points and technological advantages for acquirers [4] - M&A is seen as a key strategy for both traditional and emerging industries to enhance competitiveness and drive technological innovation [4]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is expected to see a turning point in supply and demand by the end of 2026 to 2027, driven by policy changes and supply constraints [1][2] - The implementation of Document 108 and safety inspections are leading to a reduction in production from major mines, particularly in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions [1][4] Key Points - **Supply Constraints**: The Document 108 is expected to remain in effect until October, with safety inspections continuing to impact supply until the end of the year [1][4] - **Demand Resilience**: The demand for thermal coal is strong due to seasonal factors and winter storage needs, while coking coal is benefiting from reduced supply and rising steel prices [1][5] - **Price Trends**: Coking coal prices have increased by 400 RMB/ton, with expectations for further price increases due to low inventory levels and high demand [3][9] - **Market Sentiment**: The market sentiment is improving, with a positive outlook for coking coal prices supported by safety regulations and a recovering demand environment [3][8] Potential Investment Opportunities - **Recommended Companies**: Key companies to consider include Lu'an Energy, Shenhua Group, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [3][10][11] - **High Dividend Yields**: These companies offer high dividend yields compared to other sectors, making them attractive for investors [10][11] Additional Insights - **Mongolian Coal Market**: Recent overselling in the Mongolian coal market has led to a supply shortage, exacerbated by production cuts during the Nadam Festival and customs clearance issues [6][7] - **Coking Coal vs. Thermal Coal**: Coking coal has a higher price elasticity compared to thermal coal, which is constrained by electricity and livelihood policies [9] - **Long-term Outlook**: The coal sector is at a long-term cyclical turning point, with macroeconomic policies providing a safety net for prices [2][10]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (01088) has seen a significant stock price increase, reaching a historical high of 37.84 HKD, driven by a major asset restructuring announcement involving the acquisition of 13 companies under its controlling shareholder, China Energy Group [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Shenhua's stock rose over 3%, reaching 37.84 HKD, with a trading volume of 606 million HKD [1] - The stock price increase reflects positive market sentiment regarding the company's strategic moves [1] Group 2: Major Asset Restructuring - The company announced a major asset restructuring plan to acquire 13 enterprises involved in coal mining, ports, and shipping through a combination of share issuance and cash payments [1] - This restructuring aims to optimize resource allocation across the coal industry and enhance integrated operational capabilities while addressing industry competition issues [1] Group 3: Management Communication - On August 3, the management held a conference call to address investor concerns regarding the transaction, emphasizing the commitment to avoid industry competition and reduce related party transactions [1] - The management reassured investors that the transaction aims to enhance EPS rather than dilute it, and reiterated the company's commitment to high returns and sustainable dividend policies [1] - Citigroup noted that the management is aware of investor concerns and is focused on minimizing dilution risks while maintaining dividend commitments [1]

Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed, with the CITIC Coal Index declining by 10.77% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 10.80 percentage points, ranking last among 30 industries [1][14][15] - The decline is attributed to weak demand for thermal power, leading to a continuous drop in coal prices and a significant decrease in coal company profits, raising concerns about the sustainability of high dividends in the coal industry [1][15] Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the proportion of active funds holding coal stocks decreased to 0.36%, down 0.08 percentage points from Q1 2025. Index funds' holdings also fell to 0.71%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [1][19] - The combined holding of both types of funds in the coal sector is now 0.52%, down 0.09 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1][19] Cost Perspective on Coal Price Valuation - The complete cost curve for 16 listed thermal coal companies indicates that the complete cost per ton of coal is approximately 390 CNY/ton, suggesting a port price of 640 CNY/ton. The port coal price fell to 618 CNY/ton in early June, indicating that over 20% of coal production capacity could face losses at this price level [2] - The current coal price is considered low in terms of valuation, as it is near the cost line, which could lead to production cuts if prices remain below cost [2] Historical Policy Interventions - Historical analysis shows that significant policy interventions were necessary for coal price reversals in 2008, 2015, and 2020. Each price bottom was accompanied by government actions to stimulate demand or control supply [3] - The report emphasizes that policy intervention is a necessary condition for coal price recovery, with expectations for potential government actions to support prices in the current context [3] Thermal Coal Price Outlook - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price of 618 CNY/ton may represent a bottom, with potential for recovery driven by improved demand in the second half of 2025 [4][6] - Two scenarios are outlined: an optimistic scenario where demand improves significantly, and a pessimistic scenario where demand remains weak, potentially leading to further price declines [6] Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops due to supply-demand imbalances, with low-sulfur coking coal prices falling to around 1100 CNY/ton. The report indicates that this decline has already reflected market expectations [5][7] - The report highlights the importance of inventory rebuilding and the enforcement of production limits to support price recovery in the coking coal market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with significant earnings elasticity like Lu'an Huanneng and Jinneng Holding [8] - The report also notes the potential for price recovery in coking coal, with expectations for prices to rise to a range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton in the long term [7][8]

近年来并购重组公司数量 单位:家 344 206 192 148 123 102 96 88 77 75 2025年 2024年 2023年 2022年 2021年 2020年 2019年 2018年 2017年 2016年 注：2025年数据截至8月8日 2025年以来，并购重组市场明显提速，涉及公司数量显著增加。从大背景来看，无论是政策端的大力推动，还是市场主体的积极参与，都使得 并购重组愈发活跃。数据显示，本轮并购重组浪潮呈现四大特征：规模更大、双创公司占比高、政策包容性更强、聚焦产业整合。这些新特征 有望对各个行业的竞争格局进行重塑，并为经济的高质量发展注入全新活力。 特征一：规模更大 据证券时报·数据宝统计，以首次披露日期为准，截至8月8日，2025年以来有88家上市公司公开了作为竞买方的并购重组事件。以此粗略年化 计算，今年通过并购重组的公司数量有望突破140家，创下自2020年以来的新高。 并购重组事件的规模也呈现显著扩大的趋势，诸多大型交易引人瞩目。例如，海光信息对中科曙光100%股权的吸收合并；中国神华计划收购 其控股股东所持的煤炭、坑口煤电等相关资产；湘财股份对大智慧100%股权的吸收合并 ...