Core Viewpoint - The information disclosure evaluation results for listed companies in 2024 show a significant decline in ratings for several companies, including New城控股, which dropped from an A rating to a C rating compared to 2022 [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - New城控股's information disclosure rating decreased two levels from A to C in 2024 [1]. - The company is primarily engaged in real estate development and sales, with its revenue composition being 68.63% from real estate development sales, 29.06% from property leasing and management, and 2.31% from other sources [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Context - New城控股 belongs to the real estate development sector, specifically commercial real estate, and is associated with various concept sectors including REITs, elderly care industry, new retail, mid-cap, and heavily held by funds [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the transition of China's property industry from new construction to rental asset operations, driven by the emergence of the C-REIT (China Real Estate Investment Trust) market, which is expected to reshape the competitive landscape and long-term investment thesis of the industry [2][12][31]. Core Insights - **C-REIT Market Potential**: The C-REIT market is projected to reach a market capitalization of approximately US$1 trillion, which is over 30 times larger than its current size. This growth is anticipated to attract long-term yield investors [4][11]. - **Policy Support**: Since the third quarter of 2025, supportive policies have accelerated the issuance of onshore REITs, expanding the asset scope and issuer background, which is crucial for the growth of C-REITs [4][11]. - **Investment Strategy**: Listed developers are seen as a viable way to access the expanding C-REIT theme due to their large rental portfolios and strategic commitment to divesting mature properties into REITs [5][11]. Key Beneficiaries - **Short-term Beneficiaries**: CR Land (1109.HK) is identified as the primary beneficiary in the short term, followed by Seazen (601155.SS) and Longfor (0960.HK), due to their substantial but highly pledged malls [6][11]. - **Medium-term Beneficiaries**: Other developers such as COLI (0688.HK), Vanke (2202.HK), and Poly (600048.SS) may benefit from the expansion of REIT coverage due to their rich non-retail rental assets [6][11]. Market Dynamics - **Transition Drivers**: The transition is driven by diminishing housing demand due to aging demographics and regulatory changes that have lowered development returns on equity (ROE) [13][21][23]. - **Regulatory Changes**: The introduction of the "three red lines" policy has tightened leverage for developers, leading to a shift towards a dual-track housing supply system focusing on public and rental housing [22][23]. Competitive Landscape - **Shift to Rental Focus**: Developers are increasingly focusing on recurring income from rental properties as the attractiveness of traditional property development diminishes. This shift is expected to reshape the competitive landscape and investment thesis of the industry over the next 10-20 years [29][31]. - **Challenges in Transition**: The transition to a rental-focused model is slow due to the asset-heavy nature of rental businesses, slow asset turnover affecting ROE, and limited exit channels for unlocking asset value [29][30]. Long-term Investment Thesis - **Evolving Investment Logic**: The investment logic is expected to shift from high leverage and turnover models to a focus on stable recurring income and dividend visibility, reflecting a more balanced growth approach [31][35]. - **Future Focus on REITs**: As developers transform into landlords and the C-REIT market matures, the focus may shift from developers to REITs with strong recurring income assets, similar to trends observed in developed markets [35][41]. Regulatory Framework for C-REITs - **Development Stages**: The development of C-REITs has progressed through four stages: initial preparation, gradual progress, increased promotion, and full acceleration, with significant regulatory milestones achieved since 2021 [43][44]. - **Regulatory Characteristics**: C-REITs have stringent regulations compared to developed markets, including requirements for shareholding, leverage, and cash distribution [46][48]. Conclusion - The transition in China's property industry towards a rental-focused model and the growth of the C-REIT market present significant investment opportunities. Developers with strong rental portfolios are well-positioned to benefit from this shift, while the evolving regulatory landscape will further facilitate the growth of C-REITs in the coming years [4][11][31].

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings reported a decline in both revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, while commercial operation income increased, indicating a shift in focus amid ongoing challenges in the residential sector [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, New City Holdings achieved operating revenue of 34.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million yuan, down 33.1% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a reduction in the scale of development business turnover, with a completed area of 3.5 million square meters, down 59.8% year-on-year [3]. - Total assets decreased from 534.2 billion yuan in 2021 to 307.2 billion yuan in 2024, with liabilities reduced from 437.2 billion yuan to 224.5 billion yuan, indicating a significant contraction of over 200 billion yuan in three years [3]. Debt Management - New City Holdings is approaching the end of its debt repayment peak, with only two debts remaining due in 2025: a $250 million overseas bond maturing in October and a 2 billion yuan medium-term note maturing in December [3]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company’s payable construction funds were 38.39 billion yuan, down from 45.27 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, reflecting a reduction in cash outflow pressure [3]. Financing and Market Position - New City Holdings has successfully navigated financing channels, issuing two medium-term notes totaling 1.9 billion yuan and two unsecured U.S. dollar bonds totaling $4.6 billion in 2025 [4]. - Despite the successful financing, the company faces inventory pressure, with the overall real estate market experiencing a slowdown in sales [4]. Commercial Operations - The company has opened and managed 176 Wuyue Plazas, generating total commercial operation revenue of 10.51 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year, with an average occupancy rate of 97.7% [6]. - New City Holdings is expected to generate approximately 14 billion yuan in taxable rental income and around 13 billion yuan in revenue in 2025, while its market valuation stands at approximately 31.872 billion yuan [6]. Investor Sentiment - Investors express concerns regarding New City Holdings' ability to navigate through economic cycles, especially following recent incidents involving the misuse of funds by major shareholders, which have led to audit complications [6].

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has received recognition from both domestic and international capital markets due to its robust performance and unexpected results in the commercial sector, leading to an upgrade in its rating by Morgan Stanley to "Overweight" and an increase in its target price by 25% to 19.7 yuan [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - New City Holdings achieved a total commercial operation revenue of approximately 10.511 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.82% [1] - The company has established 205 comprehensive projects across 141 cities, with a total rental property occupancy rate of 97.7% as of the end of the third quarter [1] - Despite a lackluster overall retail market, New City Holdings recorded an 11% revenue growth in the first nine months of the year, attributed to its strong position in core urban areas [2] Group 2: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts that New City Holdings' rental income will grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8%, reaching 15.2 billion yuan by 2027, supported by government initiatives to boost consumption [2] - The recent "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan" issued by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments aims to support commercial real estate projects, which may provide long-term financing support for New City Holdings [2] - The company is expected to leverage its scale advantage with over 200 Wuyue Plazas to gain more financing benefits, ensuring stable development in the new real estate cycle [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to several companies, including New城控股 with a target price of 18 yuan, 绿城中国 with a target price of 11.7 yuan, and 中国金茂 with a target price of 2.1 yuan [5]. Core Insights - The real estate market in core cities is experiencing accelerated price declines, particularly in the second-hand housing market, with a notable drop of 4.4% since April 2025 [1][11]. - The price of newly built homes in first-tier cities has shown resilience, with a year-on-year decline of only 0.7% in 2025, significantly narrowing from a decline of 3.8% in 2024 [1][22]. - The structural contradictions in the market are being released due to previous price control policies, leading to an influx of new homes into the second-hand market, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Trends - Since the third quarter of 2025, the real estate market has faced increasing adjustment pressures, particularly in the second-hand housing market of core cities, which is undergoing a rapid price decline [1][11]. - The price of newly built homes in first-tier cities has shown a strong anti-decline resilience, with a year-to-date decline of only 0.6% [1][22]. 2. Price Dynamics - The price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities has dropped significantly, with a 15.1% decline in the price of newly built homes from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2025 [1][37]. - The number of new listings for second-hand homes built between 2018 and 2025 has increased by 67.7% from 2023 to 2025, indicating a significant supply influx [2][36]. 3. Policy Environment - Following the relaxation of real estate control policies in August, there was a brief improvement in sales in September, but the downward pressure on prices has continued [3][12]. - The report suggests that companies like 金地集团 and 新城控股 may benefit from the improved policy environment and sales recovery [3][12]. 4. Regional Analysis - In cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou, new home prices have increased by 2.6% and 1.8% respectively since April 2025, while second-hand home prices have faced significant declines [22][23]. - The report highlights that the price dynamics in core cities are characterized by a divergence between new and second-hand homes, with new homes maintaining relative stability while second-hand homes experience significant price drops [21][22]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the real estate policies may further loosen by the end of the year, which could provide additional support to the market [3][12]. - The ongoing structural changes in the market, particularly the influx of new homes into the second-hand market, are expected to continue influencing price trends [2][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The real estate sector is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for facilitating economic circulation. The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized promoting high-quality development in real estate, indicating potential policy support [4][48] - There is an anticipated wave of development for high-quality housing due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure, with a focus on core cities and strong land acquisition capabilities [4][48] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.5%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) fell by 0.7% during the week [4][7] - In the new housing market, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 2.43 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 4.8%, but a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% [14][18] - For the month of October, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 8.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [18][19] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of October 25-31, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.43 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% [14] - For October, new housing transactions totaled 8.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of October 25-31, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.05 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6% [30] - For October, second-hand housing transactions totaled 7.32 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2% [33] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is promoting a system of selling existing homes to mitigate delivery risks. Additionally, five departments issued a plan to support qualified commercial real estate projects in issuing Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) [45] - Guangzhou has released guidelines for constructing quality housing, emphasizing green construction and energy-efficient appliances [45] - Policy adjustments in housing provident funds have been made, including increasing the maximum ratio of monthly repayments to family income from 55% to 60% in Hainan [45] Company Announcements - In Q3 2025, several companies reported their net profits, with notable figures including China Vanke at -16.07 billion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 98.6%) and China Merchants Shekou at 1.05 billion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%) [48][50] - Financing activities include a loan agreement where Shenzhen Metro Group will provide up to 22 billion yuan to China Vanke [48][50]

Group 1 - The real estate ETF (512200) has seen a 0.56% increase, with a trading volume of 39.944 million yuan as of November 5, 2025 [1] - The index it tracks, the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, also rose by 0.56%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Yingxin Development (up 9.33%) and Hainan Airport (up 6.45%) [1] - Since the beginning of the year, the real estate ETF has grown by 1.098 billion shares, indicating a strong interest in the sector [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, the real estate market is in the early "stabilization" phase, with a projected slight narrowing of the total housing sales decline to -5.0% in 2026 [2] - Huatai Securities suggests that the market is bottoming out, supported by reduced new home supply and marginal improvements in purchasing power, with a focus on policy adjustments to enhance buyer sentiment [2] - The industry is expected to show a "dumbbell" differentiation trend, with structural stabilization signals emerging, particularly in "good housing" companies and commercial real estate opportunities [2] Group 3 - The real estate ETF (512200) closely tracks the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors by categorizing the index into various industry levels [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Poly Developments, Vanke A, and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, indicating a concentration of investment in these key players [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent analysis and target price adjustments by major securities firms in the A-share market, highlighting the search for new investment opportunities amid market fluctuations [2][5]. Group 1: Target Price Adjustments - Citic Securities initiated coverage on seven companies, including Giant Network and Ninebot, with target price increases exceeding 50% [3][4]. - Ninebot received a target price of 98 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 62.95% from its latest closing price [4]. - Huatai Securities identified 13 companies with target price increases over 50%, primarily in the technology sector, with the highest being SMIC at 238 CNY, representing a 101.18% upside [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The focus of research has shifted towards sectors with stable earnings and long-term growth potential, such as technology and consumer goods [7][11]. - The analysis indicates a strong interest in high-dividend stocks and cyclical sectors as market risk appetite stabilizes [5][7]. Group 3: Notable Companies - Zhongding shares were highlighted with a target price of 37.33 CNY, suggesting a 66.80% upside, following significant investment from a major private equity firm [8][10]. - Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye were noted as top targets in the liquor sector, with target prices reflecting substantial growth potential [11][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a potential market consolidation phase due to high valuations and a lack of immediate positive catalysts [9][11]. - The overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations for a gradual recovery in the market driven by stable policy environments and economic growth targets [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Daxing District, Beijing, reflects a trend of rational pricing in the real estate market, with the winning bid significantly lower than previous transactions in the area, indicating increased supply and challenges in property absorption [1][4]. Group 1: Land Transaction Details - The DX04-0102-6038 plot in Xihongmen Town was sold for a base price of 1.904 billion yuan, with a floor price of 30,000 yuan per square meter [1][3]. - The land covers approximately 2.76 hectares with a planned above-ground construction area of about 63,500 square meters and a plot ratio of 2.3 [2][3]. - The site is strategically located between the Fifth and Sixth Ring Roads, near the planned subway Line 19 East Xihongmen Station, enhancing its accessibility [2][3]. Group 2: Market Context and Trends - The Xihongmen East area has seen a surge in land sales since 2020, with 10 residential plots auctioned, contrasting with the lack of new housing prior to that year [4][5]. - The recent auction price for the 6038 plot is approximately 28% lower than the price paid by China State Construction for a similar plot last year, indicating a downward trend in land prices amid market adjustments [1][6][7]. - The area is expected to benefit from the development of the Lize Business District and the Capital Business District, with the completion of the subway line projected to improve connectivity significantly by 2029 [3][6]. Group 3: Development Potential and Amenities - The 6038 plot is positioned to develop high-quality residential products due to its lower plot ratio and proximity to transportation infrastructure [2][3]. - The site will include 3,500 square meters of commercial facilities and is designed to integrate with the subway station, enhancing its appeal [2][3]. - The surrounding area boasts established amenities, including large commercial complexes, educational institutions, and healthcare facilities, contributing to a favorable living environment [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of New World Development to "Overweight," citing the company's unexpected rental growth through increased market share and positive progress in selling mature mall businesses via private REITs [1] Group 1 - The company achieved better-than-expected rental growth by enhancing its market share [1] - Positive developments in selling mature mall businesses through private REITs will improve cash flow and enhance profitability quality [1] - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for the company by 25% to 19.7 yuan [1] Group 2 - Earnings per share forecasts for 2026 to 2027 were increased by 3-5% [1]