Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with brokerage stocks showing strength against the trend, indicating a potential recovery in the brokerage sector's performance [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 4, A-shares opened lower but saw brokerage stocks like Huayin Securities rising over 4%, Dongwu Securities and Guotai Junan increasing nearly 2%, and others like Huatai Securities and Southwest Securities rising over 1% [1][10]. - The 390 billion yuan brokerage ETF (512000) saw an increase of 0.71% in its market price, with a significant net inflow of 1.139 billion yuan over the past five days [1][10]. Group 2: Brokerage Business Outlook - In January 2026, new A-share accounts reached 4.9158 million, a month-on-month increase of 89% and a year-on-year increase of 213% compared to January 2025, indicating a robust brokerage business environment [2][12]. - Analysts noted a significant recovery in self-operated investment income for brokerages in January, with brokerage business activity reaching historical highs, suggesting a strong start to the year for listed brokerages [3][12]. Group 3: Profit Forecasts - As of now, 26 listed brokerages have reported or forecasted their earnings, all showing year-on-year profit growth, a rare "full house" scenario, with six firms reporting over 100% growth [3][12]. - Notably, Citic Securities reported a record net profit exceeding 30 billion yuan, while Guotai Junan's net profit increased by 111% to 115% [3][12]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Position - Despite the overall bullish market, the brokerage sector has not seen significant momentum, with the CSI All Share Securities Index only rising 2.54% in 2025, compared to a 22.70% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [4][12]. - The sector's valuation remains low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.43, indicating a significant disconnect between high growth in earnings and stock performance [4][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance expectations for listed securities firms in 2025, driven by a vibrant capital market and robust growth in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [1][2] - As of January 30, 2025, 21 listed securities firms have disclosed their performance forecasts, with leading firms like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan expected to maintain their market dominance, projecting CITIC Securities' net profit to exceed 30 billion yuan and Guotai Haitong's net profit growth rate to exceed 100% year-on-year [1] - Smaller securities firms are anticipated to show even greater profit elasticity, with Guolian Minsheng forecasting a year-on-year net profit growth rate exceeding 400% [1] Group 2 - The growth drivers for the 2025 performance of these listed securities firms include brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, supported by a favorable A-share market environment and government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting the capital market [2] - Factors such as a moderately loose liquidity environment, continuous optimization of the capital market, and the restoration of investor confidence are expected to collectively enhance the performance of the securities sector [2] - The current valuation of the securities sector is at a historical low, presenting a defensive rebound opportunity, with recommendations to focus on strong leading firms and those with competitive advantages in wealth management, proprietary trading, and cross-border business [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that over 20 A-share listed brokerages have released positive earnings forecasts for 2025, with many expected to double their profits. Major firms like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan are projected to achieve net profits exceeding 100 billion CNY [13][14]. - The insurance sector is seeing increased investment in pension and technology innovation, with a significant shift towards equity investments due to declining interest rates and new accounting standards. By the end of 2024, insurance equity investment assets are expected to reach 1.92 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of nearly 13% [40][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - As of January 30, 2026, more than 20 A-share listed brokerages have issued earnings forecasts for 2025, with most reporting year-on-year profit growth. Notably, CITIC Securities is expected to achieve a net profit of 300.51 billion CNY, a 38.46% increase [13][14]. - The report anticipates a favorable performance for the securities industry in 2025, driven by a recovery in both primary and secondary markets [13]. 2. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - Insurance capital is increasingly directed towards pension and technology sectors, with significant investments in healthcare and elderly care. By the end of 2025, the market size of China's health and elderly care industry is projected to reach 9.8 trillion CNY [41][42]. - Major insurance companies are establishing specialized health management subsidiaries to enhance service offerings and customer retention, aiming to create a second growth curve through a "product + service" model [42]. 3. Market Liquidity Tracking - The report notes that the central bank conducted a net injection of 530.5 billion CNY in the open market during the week of January 26-30, 2026, indicating a proactive approach to managing liquidity in the financial system [47].

Core Insights - The overall performance expectations for the optical interconnect industry are strong, with differentiation providing insights for 2026 [2] - The trend of price increases in the fiber optic industry is clear, driven by rising demand and new technologies [2] Group 1: Industry Performance and Trends - The optical interconnect sector is expected to benefit from the AI industry chain, leading to upward revisions in market expectations [1] - The appreciation of the RMB impacts the optical interconnect sector, which primarily focuses on overseas exports, with implications for accounting and exchange rates [2] - The market for pluggable modules is anticipated to continue improving in 2026-2027, with new packaging and material technology changes emerging [2] Group 2: Technological Developments - Attention is drawn to the opportunities arising from the transition of CPO/OIO technologies from 0 to 1, with significant growth expected in the coming years [2] - LightCounting forecasts that CPO technology shipments will begin scaling up from 800G and 1.6T ports starting in 2026-2027, primarily for large cloud service providers [2] - By 2029, the penetration rates for CPO technologies are projected to reach 2.9% for 800G, 9.5% for 1.6T, and 50.6% for 3.2T [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Recent price increases in fiber optic cables are attributed to heightened demand from telecom operators and pre-holiday inventory buildup, suggesting continued price strength [2] - Major domestic clients are expected to accept price increases, confirming the sector's volatility and pricing power [2] Group 4: Key Industry News - Corning has established a long-term supply agreement worth $6 billion with Meta [3] - NVIDIA has made an additional $2 billion investment in CoreWeave [3] - Microsoft has released its second-generation self-developed AI chip, Maia 200 [3] - The personal AI assistant ClawdBot is gaining global traction [3] - Microsoft and Meta have released their latest financial reports [3]

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase last week, with MSCI global index up by 0.2%, MSCI developed markets flat at 0.0%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 1.4% [2] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced the largest increase [2] - Commodities saw a significant rise in oil prices, while gold and silver experienced notable pullbacks [2] - The dollar depreciated, while the British pound and Japanese yen appreciated, and the Chinese yuan depreciated [2] Trading Sentiment - Global market trading volume increased last week, with major indices showing rising volatility [2] - Trading volumes in A/H/U.S./European/Japanese stocks increased, while South Korean stock trading volume decreased [2] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong stocks rose and is at historical highs, while U.S. investor sentiment is also at historical highs [2] - Volatility increased in Hong Kong, U.S., European, and Japanese stocks, while U.S. Treasury bond volatility decreased [2] - Valuations in both developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [2] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Japanese and European stocks were revised upward last week [3] - As of January 30, 2026, the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Hang Seng Index was revised from -2.1% to -2.0% for 2025 [3] - The S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 was revised from +10.5% to +11.8% [3] - The Eurozone STOXX 50's EPS forecast for 2025 was revised from -4.5% to -4.4% [3] Economic Expectations - The U.S. economic surprise index rose last week, potentially due to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and easing geopolitical tensions [3] - The European economic surprise index also improved, supported by better-than-expected GDP growth in the Eurozone for Q4 [3] - The Chinese economic surprise index showed marginal improvement, influenced by real estate and service consumption policy expectations, as well as improved Sino-British relations [3] Capital Flows - The hawkish nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has influenced market expectations [4] - As of January 30, the market anticipates 2.1 rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, a slight decrease from the previous week [4] - Global liquidity saw significant inflows into mainland China, the U.S., South Korea, India, and Europe last week, with the largest inflow into Hong Kong stocks coming from the Stock Connect [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that over 20 A-share listed brokerages have released performance forecasts for 2025, with most expected to achieve year-on-year profit growth, and several are projected to double their profits [13][14]. - The insurance sector is increasingly focusing on pension and technology innovation investments, with significant capital being allocated to these areas, indicating a shift towards building a health and pension ecosystem [40][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - As of January 30, 2026, more than 20 A-share listed brokerages have issued performance forecasts for 2025, with most reporting positive year-on-year growth in net profit. Notably, major brokerages like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan are expected to exceed 10 billion CNY in net profit [13][14]. - The report anticipates a favorable performance for the securities industry in 2025, driven by a recovery in both primary and secondary markets, as well as a rebound in margin financing [13]. 2. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - Insurance capital is increasingly directed towards diverse equity investments, with the total equity investment assets reaching 1.92 trillion CNY by the end of 2024, marking a nearly 13% year-on-year increase [40]. - Major insurance companies are establishing funds to invest in the pension and technology sectors, with China Life investing approximately 125 billion CNY in two equity funds focused on the pension industry and technology innovation [41]. 3. Market Liquidity Tracking - The report notes that the central bank conducted a net injection of 530.5 billion CNY into the market during the week of January 26-30, 2026, indicating a proactive approach to managing liquidity [47].

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecasts of 26 listed securities firms indicate a rare "full house" situation, with all firms expecting year-on-year profit growth, driven primarily by wealth management and investment businesses [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Among the 26 firms, the net profit growth is expected across the board, with 22 firms providing specific reasons for their performance, highlighting wealth management as the core driver [1] - The leading firm, CITIC Securities, anticipates a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 38.50% increase, making it the only firm projected to exceed 30 billion yuan [2] - Guotai Junan Securities, following its merger, expects a net profit between 27.533 billion and 28.006 billion yuan, with a staggering growth rate of 111% to 115% [3] Group 2: Notable Performers - Eight firms are projected to achieve over 100% year-on-year profit growth, with Tianfeng Securities leading at an expected increase of 520.7% to 722.7% [4] - Other notable performers include Xiangcai Securities and Guolian Minsheng Securities, both expecting profit growth of approximately four times, attributed to significant advancements in wealth management and business integration [4] - The overall positive outlook for the brokerage sector is supported by active market conditions and a recovery in investment banking, which are expected to drive substantial increases in brokerage and investment income [4]

3家券商去年净利润超百亿 2026.02. 03 本文字数：2573，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周楠 随着1月收官，上市券商年报预告披露的首个高峰期结束。得益于A股过去一年的震荡上行，券商经纪及自营业务显著增长，进而带动整体业绩回暖。 Wind统计显示，截至1月底，中信证券（600030.SH）等5家上市券商已披露2025年业绩快报，另有17家披露了当期业绩预告，合计占到上市券商总 数的五成左右。整体来看，上述22家券商业绩集体报喜，8家去年的归母净利润增幅预计超七成。 从目前的排名来看，"一哥"中信证券继续霸榜，2025年实现营收748.3亿元、归母净利润300.51亿元，同比双双增长。除此之外，实现逾百亿净利的 券商还有2家，国泰海通（601211.SH）预计去年归母净利润275.33亿元至280.06亿元，同期，招商证券（600999.SH）预计实现归母净利润123亿 元。此外，天风证券（601162.SH）去年有望扭亏，预计实现归母净利润1.25亿元至1.85亿元。 二级市场上，伴随A股震荡调整，即便有业绩利好的提振，证券板块近期表现仍较为平淡。但在业内看来，板块短期调整并非意味着行情终 ...

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I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02611 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,505,759,848 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 3,505,759,848 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,505,759,848 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 3,505,759,848 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601211 | 說明 | ...