期指：忧虑暂缓，回归基本面 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 13 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4616.83 | ↓1.97 | | 7927.4 | | | | | | IF2510 | 4613.8 | ↓2.08 | -3.03 | 611.6 | 43832 | ↑3683 | 51030 | ↓3181 | | IF2511 | 4600.4 | ↓2.19 | -16.43 | 75.5 | 5422 | ↑734 | 9132 | ↑1427 | | IF2512 | 4592.2 | ↓2.18 | -24.63 | 1336.5 | 96227 | ↑17523 | 162971 | ↓329 | | IF2603 | ...

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 截至2025年10月10日收盘，国泰海通(601211)报收于18.94元，上涨1.34%，换手率1.91%，成交量257.38 万手，成交额49.11亿元。 来自交易信息汇总：10月10日主力资金净流出4225.67万元，占总成交额0.86%。 来自公司公告汇总：国泰海通证券截至2025年9月30日H股与A股法定/注册股本均无变动，已发行 股份情况清晰列示。 当日关注点 公司公告汇总国泰海通证券股份有限公司H股公告（2025年9月证券变动月报表） 国泰海通证券股份有限公司截至2025年9月30日的证券变动月报表显示，公司普通股H股和A股的法定/ 注册股本均无变动。H股上月底结存及本月底结存均为3,505,759,848股，每股面值人民币1元；A股上月 底结存及本月底结存均为14,123,165,981股，每股面值人民币1元。本月底法定/注册股本总额为人民币 17,628,925,829元。已发行股份方面，H股已发行股份（不包括库存股）为3,505,759,848股，库存股为 0；A股 ...

Core Viewpoint - External shocks leading to asset declines present a good opportunity to increase holdings in the Chinese market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent escalation in the US-China trade dispute has caused investor anxiety, reminiscent of the situation in April, resulting in panic selling [1] - In April, investors had a vague understanding of the risks associated with "reciprocal tariffs," leading to valuation contraction and diminished confidence [1] - Current trade risks are clearer compared to April, and domestic financial stability conditions are more defined, suggesting that external shocks are disturbances rather than trend-ending events [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There is a strong and ongoing demand among Chinese society and investors for quality assets, particularly those with solid development logic [1] - The current external conflicts and disturbances causing asset declines are viewed as buying opportunities [1] - Geopolitical shocks and adjustments are inevitable, but they are expected to be short-lived and manageable, marking a favorable time to increase investments in China [1]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks has accelerated, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 395.2 billion in Q3, an increase compared to Q2 [1][2] Flow Perspective - In Q3, southbound funds continued to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 395.2 billion, which is an increase from Q2 [2] - The outflow of foreign capital has slowed down, with a cumulative net outflow of HKD 66.4 billion in Q3, marking a decrease in outflow for three consecutive quarters [2] - The proportion of southbound holdings in Hong Kong stocks has reached a new high, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect holding amount rising from 20.7% at the end of Q2 to 21.8% at the end of Q3 [2] Industry Perspective - In Q3, the main inflows from southbound funds were into consumer discretionary, non-bank financials, and pharmaceuticals, while software and hardware saw net outflows in Q2 [3] - Foreign capital dominates most sub-sectors in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the internet, finance, and most consumer sectors [3] - Southbound funds have gained significant pricing power in sectors such as semiconductors, general consumption, and general dividends over the past two years [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector has experienced an excess decline compared to the overall A-share index since late August, with valuations and institutional holdings at low levels. The brokerage sector shows good performance prospects, while the insurance sector has certain dividend attributes. The non-bank financial sector is seen as having both offensive and defensive characteristics, and there are strategic opportunities for investment in the brokerage sector, particularly in undervalued life insurance stocks and high dividend yield companies like Jiangsu Jinzu [5] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 3.19 trillion yuan, up 15.9% month-on-month. In September, 2.94 million new A-share accounts were opened, a year-on-year increase of 61% and a month-on-month increase of 11%. The total number of new accounts opened from January to September reached 20.15 million, up 50% year-on-year [6] - The adjustment of margin financing collateral ratios is a routine measure and primarily affects new financing scales without impacting existing stock. The brokerage sector's performance in Q3 is expected to show a year-on-year growth of 53.1% in net profit attributable to the parent company, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [6] - The report recommends three main lines of brokerage stocks: Guosen Securities, which benefits from retail advantages and the Hainan cross-border asset management pilot; Huatai Securities and CICC, which excel in overseas and institutional business; and GF Securities and Dongfang Securities H, which have significant wealth management advantages [6] Insurance Sector - The implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy for non-auto insurance business is expected to lead to a decline in the comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance companies. The regulatory measures are anticipated to guide the industry towards more standardized development and lower insurance rates [7] - Long-term interest rates remain stable, alleviating net asset pressures, while the expected return on equity assets is boosted, leading to a potential improvement in the interest margin for insurance companies in the medium to long term. The report recommends undervalued stocks such as China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance [7] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Huatai Securities, GF Securities, Guosen Securities, Dongfang Securities H, CICC H, Dongfang Caifu, Guotai Junan; China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance; Jiangsu Jinzu, Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [4][55]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the brokerage sector, with a significant increase in new A-share accounts and trading volumes, indicating a robust market environment. The net profit for the brokerage sector is expected to show high year-on-year growth for the first nine months of 2025 [4]. - The insurance sector is undergoing regulatory changes aimed at improving profitability, particularly in non-auto insurance, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the industry [4]. - The report identifies three main investment themes in the brokerage sector: 1) Stronger institutions benefiting from improved competition, 2) Brokerages with high earnings elasticity, and 3) Companies with strong international business capabilities [4]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.47% during the period from September 29 to October 10, 2025, while the non-bank index increased by 3.18%. The brokerage sector saw a rise of 4.42%, while the insurance sector increased by 0.89% [7]. - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 26,034.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.08% [15][31]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of October 10, 2025, the financing balance in the margin trading market was 24,455.47 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 31.2% [15]. - The report notes that the average daily trading volume for the first nine months of 2025 was 26,034.09 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant trading environment [31]. Regulatory Developments - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has implemented a new framework for non-auto insurance, focusing on improving underwriting profitability and establishing stricter fee management and compliance measures [4][17]. - The report mentions the central bank's liquidity measures, including significant net injections through various monetary policy tools, which aim to maintain market liquidity [16][19].

为什么特朗普政府的关税态度会出现如此快速的软化？美国为什么很难长期坚持对其他经济体的高关税 政策？归根到底，是因为美国很难长时间逆着经济规律做事情。短期来看，美国政府可以发起一些违背 经济规律、市场原则的政策，但这样做也会给美国的经济、民生、金融市场带来诸多的问题，导致美国 国内的压力明显增大。而当这种压力大到一定程度的时候，政府的态度纠偏是必然的事情。 在过去几年，国泰海通宏观团队反复强调，中国供给端的竞争力是非常强的。国泰海通宏观做了大量的 国别研究，对一系列新兴经济体（如越南、印尼、印度、巴西、甚至中东等国家）的制造业发展进行了 分析。国泰海通宏观发现，较多新兴经济体在发展制造业方面都存在诸多掣肘，短期内很难快速替代中 国的制造业。而制造业也不可能大量的回流美国，美国也很难承接。所以在2018年以后，美国对中国的 直接贸易依赖下降，但仍然需要通过其他第三方国家与中国建立间接的贸易联系。 其次，中国的应对经验更丰富。经过4月的关税实验以后，我国有望在应对方式和工具上更加精准有 效。例如在4月初对等关税落地时，我国风险资产也出现了比较大幅度的异常波动，之后在强有力的政 策和资金支持下，风险资产普遍触底反弹。 ...

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：宏观预期反复，或延续弱势震荡 ➢ 经历了节前补库操作的兑现，节后需求表现相对偏弱，交投氛围相对偏冷清。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 产地小部分煤矿因假期出现短暂停产，国内供应小幅环比下降；蒙煤进口通车量尚未恢复至假期前的高位水平。 ◆ 2、需求： ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 中美贸易博弈或再度升级，全球海内外市场风险偏好高位回落，海外风险资产已在周五晚上出现估值上的大幅下挫，黑色估值同 样面临较大回调压力。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 煤焦基本面呈供需双弱态势，供需边际矛盾相对较小，叠加反内卷相关预期阶段性的充分计价，目前盘面估值或再度由宏观层 面因素所主导，中美贸易相关问题上的博弈激烈程度近日有所增加，风偏的回落或将对黑色及煤焦估值产生较大冲击。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continuation of strong growth in the brokerage sector, with a significant increase in net profits expected for the first nine months of 2025. Key metrics include a 61% year-on-year increase in new A-share accounts and a 203% increase in average daily stock trading volume in September 2025 [2][5] - The brokerage sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.48, placing it in the 47.8th percentile over the past decade [2] - The report notes a favorable market environment supporting continued high growth in brokerage performance, with specific recommendations for leading firms and those with strong international business capabilities [2][7] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.47% during the period from September 29 to October 10, 2025, while the non-bank index increased by 3.18%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 4.42%, 0.89%, and 0.52%, respectively [5][6] Non-Bank Sector Insights - The report indicates that the insurance sector is benefiting from the implementation of a "de-involution" policy framework for non-auto insurance, which is expected to improve underwriting profitability for leading firms [2][16] - Specific investment recommendations include firms that are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics and those with strong earnings elasticity [2][7] Key Data Tracking - As of October 10, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 26,034.09 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.99% increase from the previous period [14][32] - The report also tracks significant metrics such as the balance of margin financing and securities lending, which stood at 24,455.47 billion yuan as of October 9, 2025, marking a 31.2% increase from the end of 2024 [14][39]

Group 1 - China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations at over 5.3%, indicating strong long-term growth potential despite short-term structural disparities in the economy [1] - The real estate sector remains a significant drag on domestic demand, as it holds a high share in residents' wealth allocation, impacting consumption sources [1] - The article emphasizes the need to stabilize housing prices and explores variables that could indicate when housing prices are stabilized [1] Group 2 - The concepts of rental yield and price-to-rent ratio are introduced, with rental yield measuring the annual rental income relative to the property's sale price [2] - A common belief is that if rental yields exceed government bond rates, properties become more attractive, but historical examples from the U.S. and Japan show this logic may not hold true [2][5] - The article argues that housing is akin to "credit bonds," where price fluctuations affect perceived value, unlike stable government bonds [5] Group 3 - The return on investment in real estate comes from both rental income and capital gains, with expectations of price increases diminishing the importance of rental yields [6] - When housing price expectations are low, rental yields must be significantly higher to compensate for potential price declines and associated costs [6] - The article draws parallels between real estate and stock market behaviors, noting that both markets react similarly to investor expectations [7] Group 4 - The analysis of 13 economies reveals that once housing prices enter a downward cycle, valuations tend to revert to historical lows, similar to stock market trends [7] - Stabilizing housing prices requires more than just increasing rental yields; it necessitates managing price expectations, which are influenced by macroeconomic inflation expectations [7][8] - Recent macroeconomic policies in China have focused on boosting expectations and inflation, which could positively impact housing price stability in the future [8]