证券代码：601225 证券简称：陕西煤业 公告编号： 2025-044 陕西煤业股份有限公司 第四届董事会第五次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 陕西煤业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届董事会第五次会议通知于 2025 年 12 月 10 日以书面方式送达，会议于 2025 年 12 月 16 日以通讯表决方式召开。会 议应参加表决的董事 7 名，实际表决的董事 7 名。本次会议的召开程序及出席董事人 数符合《中华人民共和国公司法》等法律、法规和公司《章程》的规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 经与会董事一致同意，会议形成决议如下： 1、通过《关于聘任公司副总经理的议案》。 同意聘任乔少波先生担任公司副总经理，任期自本次董事会审议通过之日起至第 四届董事会届满之日止。 赞成票：7 票，反对票：0 票，弃权票：0 票。 本议案已经提名委员会审议通过。 赞成票：7 票，反对票：0 票，弃权票：0 票。 2、通过《关于制定公司经理层成员 2025 年度目标责任书的议案》。 同意 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a mixed supply and demand scenario, with production and imports declining, while coal prices are on the rise due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [14][21] - The report highlights the resilience of major coal companies, emphasizing their strong cash flow and profitability, which positions them well for future growth despite market fluctuations [14] Supply Side Summary - Coal production in November 2025 was 430 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, but the decline was less severe than in October [20][21] - Coal imports fell by 19.87% year-on-year in November, with a total of 44.05 million tons imported, reflecting supply chain disruptions and high base effects from the previous year [9][28] - Overall coal supply in November showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed compared to October [28] Demand Side Summary - The demand for coal is being negatively impacted by a 4.2% year-on-year decline in thermal power generation in November, contrasting with a 7.3% increase in October [10][29] - Chemical and metallurgical sectors are showing positive contributions to coal consumption, with chemical industry coal usage increasing by 8.22% year-on-year [12][41] Inventory Summary - Power plants are replenishing their coal inventories, with significant increases noted in November, while upstream coal inventories remain low [13][14] - The inventory levels for coking coal are also rising but are still considered low overall [13] Price Summary - The average price of thermal coal at northern ports rose to 822 RMB per ton in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% [13] - The report anticipates that coal prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand and supply adjustments, despite the ongoing fluctuations [14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [15][14] - It highlights the investment value of coal stocks due to their high dividends and cash flow characteristics, recommending a strategic approach to investing in the sector [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic coal prices have shifted from an upward trend to a rational decline since November, with future price stability dependent on winter demand, particularly if temperatures drop unexpectedly in December and January, potentially increasing residential electricity demand and coal consumption by power plants [1] - The report suggests that the global energy landscape indicates that coal's role as a stabilizing force is unlikely to change in the short term, recommending a focus on long-term opportunities in the power sector [1] - The challenges facing the U.S. electricity system include high demand driven by AI and extreme weather, which complicates the goals of decarbonization, reliability, and cost efficiency, creating a "trilemma" that may require a shift away from decarbonization to meet reliability and cost demands [1] Group 2 - As of December 12, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 763 RMB/ton, down 38 RMB/ton (-4.7%) from the previous week, with domestic supply stable and imports continuing to decline [2] - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1650 RMB/ton, with expectations for improved demand despite the seasonal downturn [3] - The total inventory of coking coal across three ports is 3.01 million tons, with a utilization rate of 73.16% for coking enterprises with inventories over 200,000 tons [4] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on key companies in the sector, including China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH, 01088), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH, 01898), while also keeping an eye on Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH, 01171) and Jinneng Holding [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the coal sector, recommending a focus on key players such as China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, while also keeping an eye on Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [3][4]. Core Insights - The coal sector has reached a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [1]. - Coal prices have recently entered a rational decline after a period of increase, with future price stability dependent on winter demand [3][4]. - The report highlights the ongoing global energy challenges, particularly in the U.S., where electricity supply issues are exacerbated by rising demand driven by AI and extreme weather [3][4]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of December 12, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 763 RMB/ton, down 38 RMB/ton (-4.7%) from the previous week [5][6]. - The price of Q5000 coal at Huanghua Port is 662 RMB/ton, down 39 RMB/ton (-5.6%) [5][6]. - Inventory levels have increased across major ports, with Qinhuangdao's inventory rising to 7.3 million tons, up 480,000 tons (7.0%) [19][20]. Coking Coal Data Tracking - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1650 RMB/ton, while other grades have seen slight declines [36]. - The average price of primary metallurgical coke at major domestic ports is 1686 RMB/ton, down 55 RMB/ton (-3.2%) [61]. Global Coal Market Dynamics - The offshore price of Newcastle Q5500 coal has decreased by 8 USD/ton (-8.8%), making domestic coal more cost-effective compared to imports [15][22]. - The report notes that Australian coking coal prices have increased by 3 USD/ton (1.4%), while costs for domestic coking coal remain lower than imported options [47]. Long-term Contracts and Pricing Trends - The annual long-term contract price for Q5500 coal at Northern Ports has increased to 694 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton (1.5%) from the previous month [26]. - The comprehensive trading price for Q5500 coal in Qinhuangdao is 709 RMB/ton, down 6 RMB/ton (-0.8%) from the previous week [38].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "recommended" investment rating for the coal mining industry, highlighting a tightening supply and expected demand release during winter, which is anticipated to stabilize coal prices within a reasonable range [1][2]. Policy Impact - The 2025 coal industry policies focus on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" and "controlling production and improving quality," with measures to enhance supply resilience and promote industry transformation towards carbon neutrality [6][11]. - The implementation of the overproduction inspection policy in July 2025 aims to curb excessive competition and stabilize coal prices, which had been under pressure earlier in the year [12][11]. Supply and Demand Analysis - For thermal coal, supply is expected to contract while demand is projected to grow, with coal production growth slowing down and imports anticipated to decline by about 10% in 2025 [6][35]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain stable, supported by a potential cold winter and increased electricity consumption during peak seasons [38][39]. Price Dynamics - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is likely to recover due to a combination of supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with the price expected to rise from approximately 620 CNY/ton in July 2025 to around 820 CNY/ton by November 2025 [18][6]. Coking Coal Outlook - Coking coal, being a scarce resource, is expected to see limited supply growth, but demand may rebound due to recovery in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, which could stimulate steel production and, consequently, coking coal consumption [6][42]. - The report emphasizes that coking coal prices are more elastic and could see significant growth potential in response to demand recovery [6][7]. Investment Strategy - The coal sector is viewed as having long-term investment value, driven by both dividend and cyclical factors, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with strong dividend yields and potential for growth [7][6]. - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry for stable dividends, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Huaibei Mining for their market-driven growth potential [7][6].

Group 1 - The report discusses the high volatility of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) due to a shift in monetary policy and concerns over long-term debt sustainability, leading to a rapid increase in JGB yields since early 2024 [3][4] - The report highlights the divergence between the rising JGB yields and the depreciation of the Japanese yen, attributing this to market concerns over fiscal health and capital outflows driven by trade agreements [3][4] - The outlook suggests continued upward pressure on JGB yields, while the divergence between the yen and interest rate differentials may not persist long-term, potentially leading to yen appreciation as market concerns ease [4] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of a proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit around 4% for 2025, which is higher than previous years, to support economic stability [5][8][9] - The report indicates that China's government debt ratio remains significantly lower than that of major economies, providing ample fiscal space for expansionary policies [8][9] - The focus on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure aims to transition from production-oriented to welfare-oriented spending, with significant allocations for education, social security, and healthcare [10] Group 3 - The report outlines the commitment to expanding domestic demand as a primary driver of economic growth, with a focus on increasing consumption and investment to stabilize the economy [13][14] - It highlights the need to boost consumer spending, noting that the contribution of final consumption to GDP growth was 53.5% in the first three quarters of 2025 [14][15] - The investment strategy includes increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government special bond usage to stimulate effective investment [15][26] Group 4 - The report discusses the establishment of a unified national market to combat "involution" in competition, emphasizing the need for standardized regulations and improved resource allocation [16][17] - It notes the progress in reducing logistics costs and increasing inter-provincial trade, indicating a move towards a more integrated market [16][17] - The focus on creating a competitive market order aims to enhance efficiency and support high-quality development across various industries [17] Group 5 - The chemical industry is identified as entering a favorable phase driven by global supply dynamics and increasing demand for AI technologies [30][31] - The report lists key players in various segments of the chemical industry, including gas turbines, refrigerants, and energy storage, highlighting potential investment opportunities [31][32] - It emphasizes the importance of value-driven strategies in the chemical sector, with a focus on enhancing dividend yields and addressing supply-side challenges [32] Group 6 - The report on credit bonds indicates a need for strategies that focus on attracting incremental funds and adapting to market conditions, with a recommendation for short-term and mid-to-long-term strategies [34][35] - It highlights the ongoing challenges in the municipal bond market, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in lower-rated bonds while seeking opportunities in higher-quality assets [36] - The financial bond market is expected to face limited supply pressures, with a focus on maintaining asset quality amid changing market dynamics [37] Group 7 - The report on social financing data indicates a stable growth rate in loans, primarily driven by corporate lending, while consumer borrowing remains cautious [38][39] - It notes a significant increase in direct financing, reflecting a positive trend in market development, despite a decline in household leverage [39][40] - The overall financial environment suggests continued support for fiscal and monetary policies to sustain economic growth [39]

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Insights - The coal sector has confirmed a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with supply-demand dynamics showing a reversal point and downward risks fully released [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of winter demand in determining future coal prices, especially if temperatures drop unexpectedly in December and January, potentially increasing residential electricity demand and coal consumption by power plants [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the U.S. power system, particularly the "impossible trinity" of decarbonization goals, grid reliability, and the cost-speed requirements of AI data centers, suggesting that the U.S. may need to abandon its decarbonization targets to meet these demands [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, along with Yanzhou Coal and Jinneng Holding [4]. Coal Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 763 RMB/ton, down 38 RMB/ton (-4.7%) from the previous week [7]. - Domestic coal prices have entered a rational decline phase since November, with a focus on whether winter demand can exceed expectations [4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic supply remains stable, with imports continuing to decrease; total supply is expected to maintain a stable decline throughout the year [4]. - The report notes that the average price of metallurgical coke at major domestic ports has decreased, with the price of primary metallurgical coke at 1686 RMB/ton, down 55 RMB/ton (-3.2%) [58]. Inventory Levels - As of December 12, 2025, Qinhuangdao's coal inventory has increased by 48,000 tons (7.0%), with total inventory at major northern ports rising by 201,200 tons (5.8%) [22]. - The report indicates that the total inventory of coking coal at three major ports is 3.01 million tons, up 11,000 tons (3.8%) from the previous week [57]. Market Tracking - The report tracks coal price declines across various ports, with significant drops noted at Huanghua, Jiangsu, and Ningbo ports [7][9]. - The report also highlights that the average price of Australian coking coal has increased by 3 USD/ton (1.4%), while domestic coking coal remains cheaper than imported options [46].

Industry Fundamentals - Coking coal downstream is about to start seasonal restocking, while thermal coal downstream restocking is nearly complete. Current coking coal inventory at sample steel mills is 7.95 million tons, down 0.45% week-on-week, while independent coking plants hold 8.83 million tons, up 3.02% week-on-week. This indicates that coking production has begun seasonal restocking, and steel mills are expected to follow suit [1] - Major power generation groups have coal inventories of 14.23 million tons, down 1.75% week-on-week, indicating that power plants have largely completed restocking and are entering a procurement off-season. The number of vessels at ports in the Bohai Rim has significantly decreased, reflecting reduced procurement demand from power plants [1] - The coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports is 29.08 million tons, up 5.07% week-on-week, suggesting that inventory pressure is gradually shifting to the midstream sector. Short-term coking coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, while thermal coal prices may still face some pressure [1] Key Events - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a special meeting on December 12, emphasizing that central enterprises should ensure a good finish to this year's work and a strong start for next year. The meeting highlighted the need to focus on core responsibilities and resist "involution" competition, aiming for development driven by value creation [1] Price Comparison and Valuation - As of December 12, the ratio of coking coal futures closing price to the spot price of 5500 kcal thermal coal is 1.20, which is at a 6.7% percentile level since 2013, close to the historical low of 0.98 recorded in June 2025. This indicates that current coking coal prices are significantly lower than thermal coal prices [2] - The CITIC coal industry index PB is 1.43 times, with a ratio of 0.80 times compared to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, both at 57% and 42% percentile levels since 2013, indicating that the coal sector's valuation is at a historical median level [2] Investment Opportunities - From a seasonal perspective, downstream steel mills and coking plants are expected to gradually start restocking, which will support coking coal prices in the near term [3] - This year's restocking by steel mills and coking plants has been delayed, primarily due to downstream pessimism regarding future coking coal prices. However, with the catalyst of "anti-involution" messages, downstream demand may shift from wait-and-see to procurement [3] - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal is nearing historical lows, suggesting that any slight disturbance could lead to a significant rebound in coking coal prices [2][3]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Macro Insights - The report discusses the rapid rise in Japanese government bond yields since early 2024, attributed to the end of negative interest rates and the abandonment of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, alongside concerns over long-term debt sustainability and structural demand shrinkage [3][4] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit around 4% for 2025, which is higher than previous years, indicating a focus on constructive fiscal expansion [5][8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth, with consumer spending contributing significantly to GDP growth [13][14][15] Group 2: Industry and Sector Analysis - The chemical industry is entering a favorable phase, driven by global supply dynamics and increasing demand for AI technologies, with specific companies identified as key players in various segments such as gas turbines and refrigerants [30][31] - The report outlines the ongoing transformation in the real estate sector, focusing on controlling supply, reducing inventory, and improving the quality of housing, with a significant emphasis on affordable housing initiatives [20][21][27] - The robotics sector is experiencing accelerated financing and innovation, with several companies completing significant funding rounds to enhance R&D and commercialize advanced robotic solutions [41][42][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the coal industry [6] Core Insights - The focus is on the investment opportunities in the coking coal sector, particularly as current coking coal prices are lower than thermal coal prices, and some coking coal stocks are trading below their net asset value [3][65] - The report highlights that the market's pessimistic expectations for coking coal stocks are already reflected in their prices, suggesting a potential for left-side positioning in this sector [3][65] - The long-term contract prices for thermal coal at production sites are expected to stabilize prices and reduce volatility, with specific stocks like Shaanxi Coal and Zhongmei Energy being recommended [3][65] Industry Overview - The report notes that the coking coal downstream is about to begin seasonal inventory replenishment, while the thermal coal downstream has largely completed its replenishment [8] - Current coking coal futures prices are significantly lower than thermal coal prices, with the ratio of coking coal futures to thermal coal prices at a historical low [8][27] - The coal mining operating rates remain low compared to the same period last year, indicating supply constraints [30][29] Key Events - A recent meeting by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for central enterprises to focus on core responsibilities and resist "involution" competition, which may impact the coal sector's operational strategies [8] Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of coking coal futures was significantly lower than that of thermal coal, indicating a potential for price recovery in the coking coal market [8][27] - The report indicates that the inventory levels at major ports are high, which may influence future price movements in the coal market [37][40]