Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. It is advisable to look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those holding long positions should continue to hold them cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4050 - 4100, support is 3900, and strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area. For silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, support is 47.5, and strong support is 45.5 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metals prices rebounded slightly but remained in a narrow - range oscillation, reversing Tuesday's pattern. The US dollar index oscillated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose, the US stock market rebounded, the European stock market rose, Bitcoin rebounded, crude oil prices fell, and the Southern China Non - ferrous Metals Index oscillated at a low level. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3990.4 per ounce, up 0.75%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.86 per ounce, up 1.2%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 912.26 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11276 yuan per kilogram, down 0.73%. The US October ADP employment increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025 and higher than the expected 28,000. The September total employment was revised to a decrease of 29,000 from a decrease of 32,000. After the data, precious metals briefly declined and then returned to an upward trend. The US October ISM services PMI rebounded unexpectedly, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains uncertain. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 37.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.5%. For January 29, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 25.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 19.4%. For March 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 17.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 45.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 6.4%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1038.63 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 16.93 tons to 15150.71 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.4 tons to 656.2 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report at 20:00 on Thursday. FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech at 00:00 on Friday; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harker will speak at the New York Economic Club at 01:00; 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak at 05:30; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will have a fireside chat on monetary policy at 06:30; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the European Central Bank Money Market Conference at 16:00 [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Price Table - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main - continuous contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6] 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings [13] 3.6 Stock - Bond - Commodity Overview - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, and 10Y US real interest rate [18]

Core Viewpoint - The futures industry is undergoing regulatory changes aimed at enhancing quality and compliance, shifting from quantity-driven growth to a focus on high-quality development and diversified services [2][4][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes and Industry Direction - The new regulations emphasize compliance and risk management, encouraging futures companies to create a positive industry atmosphere and enhance their service capabilities to support the real economy [2][4]. - The industry is transitioning from a marketing-oriented approach to a service-oriented model, with companies encouraged to establish compliance frameworks and improve their operational management [3][4]. Group 2: Company Strategies and Innovations - Companies like Nanhua Futures are focusing on a diversified business model that includes futures brokerage, risk management, wealth management, and overseas financial services to provide comprehensive risk management solutions [2]. - Newhu Futures is restructuring its business into four layers: intermediary, tool, trading service, and trading investment, aiming to enhance service quality and client engagement [3]. - Green Dahu Futures plans to implement a multi-faceted strategy that includes business diversification, customer diversification, and a focus on regional and functional capabilities to meet national strategic goals [4]. - Zhejiang Merchants Futures is leveraging digital innovation to improve service quality, developing platforms to address the pain points of small and medium-sized enterprises in pricing, inventory, and financing [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metal price, in the short term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and existing long - position bottom positions should be held cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On Tuesday, precious metal prices declined. The US dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell, the US stock market, Bitcoin, crude oil, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index all dropped. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3941.3 per ounce, down 1.81%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $46.895 per ounce, down 2.4%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 908.92 yuan per gram, down 1.14%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11238 yuan per kilogram, down 1.33% [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations rebounded slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.1%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 3.15 tons to 1038.63 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 22.2 tons to 15167.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 6.7 tons to 665.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons as of the week ending October 24 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday night. There will also be ISM manufacturing and services PMI, ADP small non - farm data during the week. Also, pay attention to whether the US government shutdown will delay data releases. Events: The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report on Thursday at 08:00. On Friday, multiple FOMC members will give speeches at different times [4] 3.4 Price and Spread Data - The report provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various gold and silver contracts such as SHFE gold and silver futures, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver futures, as well as the COMEX gold - silver ratio [5] 3.5 Inventory and Position Data - It shows the latest inventory and position data of SHFE and CME gold and silver, including SHFE gold inventory (87816 kg), CME gold inventory (1178.2529 tons), SHFE gold position (144602 lots), etc. [13][14] 3.6 Other Asset Data - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of other assets such as the US dollar index, US stocks, crude oil, LME copper, and US Treasury yields [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show an "oscillating and strengthening" trend within the range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton in the next month. If the lithium ore gap cannot be replenished, the price may break through 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - On the lithium ore side, the expected increase in the number of lithium concentrates arriving at ports this month can ease the tight situation. The release of salt - lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. The demand side is currently strong, with the prices of core battery materials rising, and the downstream production scheduling in November remains highly prosperous, which will maintain strong demand for lithium salts and intensify the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. National industrial policies are expected to support the demand for lithium salts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 85,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 29.4% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 45.1% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,560 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0, a daily环比 of 0.00%, a weekly change of - 4,340 yuan/ton, and a weekly环比 of - 5.24%. Other contract data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads between different contracts are also provided [8]. - **Options and Other Data**: Information on estimated volume totals, option contract data for different months (including opening, high, low, last, change, settle, estimated volume, and prior - day open interest) are presented [22][23]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The daily average prices of different types of lithium ores (lithium mica, lithium spodumene, etc.) with different Li₂O contents are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. The exchange rate of the US dollar to the RMB is also provided [27]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and their daily and weekly changes are presented. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea) is also included [30]. - **Price Spreads**: Spreads such as the difference between electric - carbon and industrial - carbon, electric - carbon and electric - hydrogen, and the difference between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [37]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The daily prices of downstream products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes, and their changes are presented [38][39]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The main - continuous basis of lithium carbonate and the basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands are provided [41][43]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The seasonal data and the quantity data of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts (including the total and for different warehouses) are presented, along with their daily changes [44][46]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), import profit, and theoretical delivery profit are presented, with their historical trends shown [47][48][49]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with battery material production plans, different hedging strategies are recommended according to whether the product price is correlated with the raw material price. The hedging tools include futures and on - and off - exchange options, with different hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises with lithium carbonate production plans can use futures and options to hedge against the risk of price decline during sales. Different hedging ratios are recommended based on different situations [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories can use futures and options to hedge against the risk of inventory depreciation, with recommended hedging ratios and price levels [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy interventions have affected the long - term supply of live pigs. Long - term strategic outlook can be bullish, but short - to medium - term trends are still based on fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may take a production cycle to form. Currently, the market is in a state of oversupply, and short - term pig prices have dropped rapidly due to concentrated slaughtering. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will improve, and there may be a structural shortage of large pigs, supporting prices during the peak season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The predicted price range for the main contract is 11,000 - 13,500. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 24.24%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 75.74% [2] 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment risk, strategies include short - selling live pig futures to lock in profits according to the inventory, selling call options when there is no suitable price on the futures market, and buying out - of - the - money put options to not miss potential price increases. Recommended ratios for short - selling futures and selling call options are both 10% [2] - **Procurement Management**: For future procurement plans and fear of raw material price increases, strategies are to buy live pig forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options when there is no suitable price on the futures market, and buy out - of - the - money call options when not wanting to lock in profits in advance and expecting lower costs [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Policy interventions may impact long - term supply. The policy bottom has appeared, but the market bottom needs time. The current fundamental situation is oversupply, and short - term price drops are due to concentrated slaughtering. Recently, the number of pigs sold by large farms and second - fattening groups has decreased, and some second - fattening has started restocking. With the peak season, demand will improve, and there may be a shortage of large pigs [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors, translated from Chinese) - Macro sentiment has improved, boosting market confidence. The price difference between standard and fat pigs is at a relatively high level in the same period. There is a medium - to long - term expectation of capacity reduction in the policy. The current pig price is low, fattening costs are down, and second - fattening speculators are entering the market. Large farms are selling fewer pigs [6] 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors, translated from Chinese) - The inventory of breeding sows is still relatively high. The inventory of large - scale enterprises is at a three - year high. Terminal consumption downstream is weak. The occupancy rate of second - fattening pens has returned to a high level [6][7] 3.6 Pig Spot Prices - The national average pig spot price is 11.78 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan or 1.26%. Prices in Henan, Hunan, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Guangdong also show declines [9] 3.7 Pig Futures Prices - The closing prices of pig futures contracts 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 are 11,685, 11,360, 11,860, 12,465, 13,255, and 11,550 yuan/ton respectively, with no change on the day [10] 3.8 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - Spreads and basis such as LH01 - 03, LH03 - 05, etc., show different degrees of change, with LH01 - 03 down 22.62%, LH03 - 05 up 3.09%, etc [16]

Market Overview - The futures concept sector declined by 0.37% on November 4, with Meihu Co., Ltd. leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3960.19, down 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13175.22, down 1.71% [1] Stock Performance - Xiamen Guomao (600755) saw a significant increase of 4.51%, closing at 6.72 with a trading volume of 1.32 million shares and a turnover of 885 million yuan [1] - Meihu Co., Ltd. (6163309) experienced a decline of 3.77%, closing at 34.93 with a trading volume of 135,600 shares and a turnover of 477 million yuan [2] - Other notable performers included Modern Investment (000900) with a 0.94% increase and Zhongke Jincai (002657) with a 2.26% decline [2] Capital Flow - The futures concept sector experienced a net outflow of 536 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 313 million yuan [2] - The capital flow data indicates that major funds were predominantly withdrawing, contrasting with the inflow from retail investors [3] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Quzhou Development (600208) had a net inflow of 65.63 million yuan from main funds, while it faced a net outflow of 63.93 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Zhongjin Lingnan (000060) reported a net inflow of 18.44 million yuan from main funds, but also saw outflows from both retail and speculative funds [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The stock index opened lower and rebounded in the late session, recouping some losses, with the trading volume in the two markets falling below 2 trillion yuan. The decline in the Asia - Pacific market and the increasing profit - taking intention of funds led to a correction in some sectors. The market showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, with the basis of stock index futures falling and market sentiment cooling. However, the late - session rebound indicated support at lower levels. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate. The market has significant differences in the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut path, and attention should be paid to the US ADP data. The strategy recommended is to hold positions and wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index closed down collectively, with the large - cap index relatively resilient. The CSI 300 index closed down 0.75%. The trading volume in the two markets decreased by 1913.73 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IM declined with increasing volume, while other varieties declined with decreasing volume [3]. Important Information - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose additional tariffs on China if China continued to restrict rare - earth exports, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways [4]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.89 | -0.18 | -1.92 | -1.55 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.8199 | 5.0534 | 14.3967 | 23.3578 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | -2.4816 | -1.2191 | -0.511 | -2.4149 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0097 | 9.6979 | 25.4358 | 36.2939 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | -0.1034 | -0.2629 | -0.0107 | 0.0556 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.41 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.71 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.45 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 19157.58 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | -1913.73 | [7]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will show an "oscillating and strengthening" trend in the range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton in the next month. If the lithium ore gap cannot be filled in time, the price may break through 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - On the lithium ore side, the expected increase in the quantity of imported lithium concentrates this month can ease the supply tightness. The release of salt lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will directly expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. The current demand is strong, and the prices of core battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are rising, indicating the demand toughness for lithium carbonate. The high - prosperity production schedule in November will maintain the strong demand for lithium salts, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. The downstream demand of lithium battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which will support the spot price of lithium carbonate [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The 20 - day rolling volatility of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 30.0%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 45.1%. The strong pressure level of the LC2601 contract is 85,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Contract Information**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,560 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 3,720 yuan (- 4.52%) and a weekly decrease of 3,080 yuan (- 3.77%). The trading volume is 975,978 lots, with a daily increase of 389,310 lots (66.36%) and a weekly increase of 246,671 lots (33.82%). The open interest is 457,374 lots, with a daily decrease of 67,810 lots (- 12.91%) and a weekly decrease of 31,429 lots (- 6.43%) [8]. - **Spread Information**: LC2601 - LC2603 is 100 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 420 yuan (- 80.77%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 86.49%); LC2601 - LC2605 is - 500 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 580 yuan (- 725.00%) and a weekly decrease of 740 yuan (- 308.33%); LC2603 - LC2605 is - 600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (36.36%) and a weekly increase of 100 yuan (20.00%) [8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 26,490 lots, with a daily decrease of 800 lots (- 2.93%) and a weekly decrease of 845 lots (- 3.09%) [8]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores have different degrees of decline. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,115 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 35 yuan (- 1.63%) and a weekly increase of 50 yuan (2.42%) [26]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan (- 0.13%) and a weekly increase of 2,400 yuan (3.15%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan (- 0.12%) and a weekly increase of 2,400 yuan (3.06%) [29]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have different changes. For example, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 36,025 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 25 yuan (- 0.07%) [38]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Information**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands vary. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2601) is - 100 yuan, and the four - material comprehensive basis quote (LC2601) is - 225 yuan [42]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,490 lots, a decrease of 800 lots compared with yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as a decrease of 150 lots in Xiangyu Speed - Pass Shanghai and 440 lots in Suining Tiancheng [45]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore, including the production profit from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate [46][47][49]. 5. Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce battery materials in the future, if they are worried about the increase in procurement costs due to rising lithium carbonate prices, they can buy corresponding futures contracts or sell put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 20%, and the recommended entry range is below 73,000 yuan for futures and LC2512 - P - 73000 for options [2]. - **Sales Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce lithium carbonate in the future, if they are worried about the decrease in sales profits due to falling prices, they can sell corresponding futures contracts or buy put options and sell call options to lock in sales profits. The hedging ratio for futures is 40%, and 20% for options [2]. - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories, if they are worried about inventory depreciation due to falling prices, they can sell futures contracts or call options to lock in inventory value. The hedging ratio for futures is 60% (above 83,000 yuan), and 30% for call options (LC2601 - C - 83000) [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The key trading point of the current soybean meal futures lies in the export demand of US soybeans in the context of China-US negotiations. With an expected export volume of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in and limited incremental factors, the ending inventory will remain around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. However, with the smooth progress of soybean planting in Brazil, there will be limited upward driving forces. The upward space of the domestic soybean meal rebound is expected to be limited due to the high inventory pressure in the near - term. The purchase of US soybeans will lead to a downward driving force in the far - term, but the cost support will also limit the decline [4]. - The key trading point of the current rapeseed meal futures is that the domestic rapeseed meal is affected by the continuous China - Canada negotiations. In the short term, due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, the futures price shows a slightly stronger performance, but it is not advisable to chase the long position. Since the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed was announced on August 12, domestic importers have been cautious about purchasing Canadian rapeseed. The import volume this year has decreased by 42% compared with the same period last year. The fourth quarter will maintain a state of weak supply and demand. After the Chinese government decided to resume group tours to Canada on November 3, the subsequent demand is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 9.8% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 6.9%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 18.7% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 40.2% [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Instrument | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - For soybean meal: The external market focuses on export demand, while the domestic market is constrained by high inventory in the near - term and the purchase of US soybeans in the far - term. Short - term attention should be paid to whether a procurement and tariff adjustment agreement is signed between China and the US this week [4]. - For rapeseed meal: Affected by China - Canada negotiations, the short - term performance is slightly stronger, but the subsequent demand is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The new warrant registration situation after the centralized cancellation in November can be monitored [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - **Bullish factors**: The Brazilian export premium supports the far - term contract price from the cost side; the external market continues to strengthen under the background of purchasing US soybeans; the pressure in the near - term is alleviated due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month [5]. - **Bearish factors**: The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend; the smooth planting in Brazil and the expected high yield in South America suppress the far - term futures price; the supply gap in the far - term is filled under the background of China - US negotiations and procurement [6][7]. 3.5 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3015 | - 11 | - 0.36% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2818 | - 11 | - 0.39% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2935 | - 14 | - 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2497 | 6 | 0.24% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2378 | - 2 | - 0.08% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2466 | - 4 | - 0.16% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1134.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.127 | 0.0129 | 0.18% | [7] 3.6 Price Spreads - **Soybean meal spreads**: The spread between M01 and M05 is 197 (no daily change), between M05 and M09 is - 117 (up 3), and between M09 and M01 is - 80 (down 3). The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3040 (no change), and the basis is 25 (up 11) [8]. - **Rapeseed meal spreads**: The spread between RM01 and RM05 is 119 (up 8), between RM05 and RM09 is - 88 (up 2), and between RM09 and RM01 is - 31 (down 10). The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2580 (up 130), and the basis is 89 (up 27) [8]. - **Soybean meal - rapeseed meal spreads**: The spot price spread is 460 (no change), and the futures price spread is 518 (down 17) [8]. 3.7 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) | 4858.2301 | - 88.7137 | 0.2633 | | Import cost of Brazilian soybeans | 4116.33 | 60.38 | 79.49 | | Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 789.9561 | - 10.8447 | - 57.4083 | | Import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) | - 991.4751 | - 88.7137 | - 404.2412 | | Import profit of Brazilian soybeans | - 38.6558 | 0.6921 | - 10.2467 | | Import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed (futures) | 596 | - 63 | - 135 | | Import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed (spot) | 857 | - 56 | - 130 | [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growth in investment demand (monetary easing prospects and periodic safe - haven trading) will continue to push up the price center of precious metals, in the short term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to add positions on dips, and those with existing long positions should continue to hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Condition - On Monday, precious metal prices fluctuated and consolidated. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly, the U.S. stock market continued to fluctuate and adjust, Bitcoin fell, crude oil fluctuated, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index also fluctuated as a whole [2]. - The final settlement price of the COMEX gold 2512 contract was $4013.4 per ounce, down 0.06%; the U.S. silver 2512 contract settled at $48.25 per ounce, down 0.75%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 922.58 yuan per gram, up 0.47%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11455 yuan per kilogram, up 0.39% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations cooled slightly. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 32.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3% [3]. - The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 1041.78 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15189.82 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.7 tons to 658.9 tons per day; as of the week of October 24, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the U.S. non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening. There will also be data such as ISM manufacturing and services PMI and ADP small non - farm data released during the week. Also, pay attention to whether the U.S. government shutdown will delay data releases [4]. - In terms of events, on Thursday at 08:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. On Friday, multiple FOMC members will give speeches [4]. 3.4 Price Ranges - The resistance level for London gold is 4050 - 4100, the support level is 3900, and the strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area; for silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, the support is 47.5, and the strong support is 45.5 [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The report also provides data on precious metal futures and spot prices, inventory and position data, and stock, bond, and commodity market data, including the U.S. dollar index, U.S. stocks, crude oil, and U.S. Treasury yields [5][13][15][19].