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降息预期再升,有色整体回暖
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-17 09:38
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The overall market for non-ferrous metals is recovering, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and the upcoming peak demand season in September and October, leading to price increases in copper and aluminum [1][2] - Precious metals are supported by rising trade tensions, weak labor market data in the US, and ongoing expectations for interest rate cuts, which have contributed to an upward trend in gold and silver prices [3] - The small metals sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in antimony and rare earths, with price increases and improved fundamentals expected [4][5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices continue to rise, with the Shanghai copper closing at 79,080 CNY/ton, supported by tight supply and increased demand from downstream sectors [1][14] - Aluminum prices have increased, with the Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,660 CNY/ton, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and favorable macro policies [2][19] - Gold and silver prices have risen, with gold averaging 780.72 CNY/gram and silver at 9,210 CNY/kilogram, supported by weak US economic data and inflation trends [3][23] Small Metals - Antimony prices are showing signs of stabilization, with market dynamics indicating limited downward space due to strong cost support and low inventory levels [4] - Rare earth prices have reached new highs, with light rare earth oxide prices rising by 7% to 557,500 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for significant improvement in the sector [5] Other Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaging 83,000 CNY/ton, reflecting strong market demand and supply disruptions [33] - Cobalt prices are experiencing a slight increase, with cobalt intermediate prices rising to 13.1 USD/pound, although demand remains weak [38] - Tin prices have shown strength, with LME tin closing at 33,700 USD/ton, supported by positive macro sentiment despite underlying supply weaknesses [43] - Tungsten prices have increased across the board, with black tungsten ore prices reaching 200,500 CNY/ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [48] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, with 45-50 degree molybdenum concentrate averaging 4,365 CNY/ton, driven by increased demand from steel mills [53]
矿端供应预期进一步收缩,铜价表现坚挺
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 09:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the supply expectations for copper are further tightening, leading to a robust performance in copper prices. Additionally, the gold market is expected to benefit from rising inflation expectations in the U.S. due to tariff disturbances [1][38] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase this week [13] - Price fluctuations among non-ferrous metals varied, with some prices rising while others fell [23] 2. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Supply expectations are tightening, with global copper inventories increasing by 0.84 thousand tons. Chile's copper production growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced [2] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to macroeconomic sentiments, with a slight increase in supply and moderate demand [2] 3. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Supply disruptions are causing lithium prices to rebound strongly, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 15% to 83,000 CNY/ton [3] - **Metal Silicon**: The market remains stable with no significant changes in the fundamentals, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] 4. Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by U.S. inflation data, with a notable increase in the PPI to 3.7% in July, leading to expectations of continued upward pressure on gold prices [1][38] 5. Key Stocks - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current market conditions [1][2][3]
行业投资策略周报:智利铜矿供给紧缺,继续推荐工业金属机会-20250817
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 08:39
Core Insights - Chile's copper supply is tight, continuing to recommend opportunities in industrial metals [5][7] - The report maintains a positive investment rating for industrial metals [5] Industrial Metals - Copper: Supply constraints due to the suspension of Codelco's copper mine in Chile (350,000 tons), limited future increments post-resumption, and no hope for the Panama copper mine to resume this year. Tight raw material supply has led to reduced output and declining social inventory. Demand remains stable, with major traders reluctant to sell, creating a bullish market sentiment. The upcoming demand peak from September to November could significantly push copper prices higher if supply remains constrained. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, and Zangge Mining [7]. - Aluminum: Slight increase in theoretical operating capacity and rising aluminum ingot inventory. Weekly aluminum rod production decreased, but real estate consumption sentiment in Beijing improved. In the medium to long term, alumina supply is expected to increase, potentially keeping prices low. Electrolytic aluminum inventory is at historical lows, providing price support as the peak season approaches. Recommended stocks include Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo, Nanshan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Suotong Development, Huatong Cable, and Zhongfu Industrial [7]. Energy Metals - Rare Earths: Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose by 3.62% to 558,000 yuan/ton, and praseodymium-neodymium mixed metal prices increased by 2.65% to 678,000 yuan/ton. Supply remains tight, with some companies halting production due to raw material shortages. The upcoming peak season is expected to drive prices higher. Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, Shenghe Resources, and Guangsheng Nonferrous [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.12% to 81,200 yuan/ton. The suspension of the Jiangxi mine since August 10 and other mines facing license reviews have led to low inventory levels, shifting the industry from surplus to tight balance. Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Lingnan, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie, and Salt Lake Resources [7]. Precious Metals - Inflation recovery and interest rate cut expectations are under scrutiny, with market focus on the aftermath of US-Russia-Ukraine talks. CPI data was weak, but core CPI exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in rate cut expectations for September. The lack of a ceasefire agreement after the US-Russia summit has heightened market caution. Long-term, risks from debt and slowing economic growth may pressure the dollar and US Treasuries, highlighting gold's value as a hedge. Recommended stocks with production growth and performance release include Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Shanjin International, Western Gold, Chifeng Gold, Tongguan Gold, and Wanguo Gold Group [7].
有色金属周报20250817:供给扰动+降息预期,看好商品价格表现-20250817
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-17 06:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to support commodity prices in the near term [1][2]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases due to the upcoming "golden September and silver October" season, despite some weakness in demand [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly cobalt and lithium, are projected to experience price increases due to supply constraints and strong demand [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to rise in price, driven by central bank gold purchases and changing tariff policies [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that copper prices are supported by rising production rates and demand from downstream cable consumption, with the SMM import copper concentrate index showing a slight increase [2][3]. - Aluminum production remains high, but demand is weak, leading to an increase in social inventory [2][21]. - Key companies recommended include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply shortages, while lithium prices are also increasing due to tight supply conditions [3]. - Key companies recommended include Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, with a target of breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark [4]. - Key companies recommended include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4][5].
股市观察20250815:沪指突破“924”高点!A股下一站去哪里?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 09:58
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3674.4 points, reaching a new high since December 2021 [1] - The "924 market" on October 8, 2024, saw the index open up 10.13% and close at 3674.4 points, marking a historic peak driven by strong policy support [3] Policy Impact - A series of robust policies were introduced by the central bank, financial regulators, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 24, which contributed to the market rally [3] - The State Council emphasized measures to boost the capital market and guide long-term funds into the market during a press conference on October 8 [3] Market Trends - The research team believes that the A-share market has entered its fifth bull market, characterized as a "systematic slow bull," with a shift in asset allocation towards equity assets by residents [5] - The long-term target for the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to exceed the 3700-point mark [5] Sector Performance - The financial sector remains a key driver of the index's strength, with a notable performance from brokerage firms, while the banking sector has seen a pullback [6] - Leading brokerages such as Guosheng Securities and Changcheng Securities have shown significant gains [6] Investment Opportunities - Recent trends indicate three main drivers for the brokerage industry: an increase in T0 client numbers, steady growth in client margin scales, and a noticeable increase in leverage among existing clients [10] - The research team anticipates that the equity allocation by insurance funds, wealth management, and public offerings will likely rebound, opening growth opportunities for brokerage services [10] Large-cap Stocks - Eight large-cap stocks, including Industrial Fulian and Zijin Mining, have reached historical highs, indicating strong performance in the market [11] - The market has shown a trend where large-cap stocks outperform smaller indices, likely due to institutional funds entering the market [11] Future Outlook - The research team predicts that the A-share market will continue to experience a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on large financial stocks and large-cap companies as potential investment targets [12]
洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司关于对外担保计划的公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-08-15 19:11
Group 1 - The company plans to provide guarantees totaling up to 4.1 billion yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiaries [2][4] - The company has no overdue guarantees as of the announcement date [4][13] - The total amount of external guarantees accounts for 23.02% of the company's most recent audited net assets [4][13] Group 2 - The company has been authorized to provide a maximum guarantee amount of 55 billion yuan for the year 2025, with specific limits for subsidiaries with asset-liability ratios above and below 70% [5] - The guarantees will cover various financial obligations, including loans, bond issuances, and other forms of liabilities [5] - The authorization is valid from the date of the 2024 annual general meeting until the 2025 annual general meeting [5] Group 3 - The company has not yet signed any agreements related to the guarantees mentioned in the plan [11] - The guarantees are deemed necessary for the normal operations of the company and its subsidiaries, which are all wholly-owned [12] - The credit status of the guaranteed parties is considered good, and the overall risk of the guarantees is manageable [12] Group 4 - An investor briefing session is scheduled for August 25, 2025, to discuss the company's half-year performance and financial status [15][18] - Investors can participate in the session via video and online interaction, with opportunities to submit questions beforehand [19] - The session will include participation from independent directors and management [18]
洛阳钼业:8月25日将举行2025年半年度业绩说明会


Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-15 12:44
Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) announced plans to hold a semi-annual performance briefing on August 25, 2025, from 15:00 to 16:00 [1] Company Summary - The company is scheduled to conduct a performance explanation meeting for the first half of 2025 [1]
洛阳钼业收盘上涨4.12%,滚动市盈率15.43倍,总市值2376.91亿元
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-15 12:13
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and market position of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., which has a closing price of 11.11 yuan, a 4.12% increase, and a rolling PE ratio of 15.43 times, with a total market capitalization of 237.69 billion yuan [1] - The company ranks 5th in the small metals industry, which has an average PE ratio of 68.26 times and a median of 66.32 times [1] - As of the first quarter of 2025, 212 institutions hold shares in Luoyang Molybdenum, with a total holding of 422.579 million shares valued at 3.558 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Luoyang Molybdenum's main business includes mining and processing of base and rare metals, with key products such as molybdenum, tungsten, copper, cobalt, niobium, and phosphate [1] - The latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 show an operating revenue of 46.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%, and a net profit of 3.946 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 90.47%, with a gross profit margin of 22.33% [1] - The PE ratios of other companies in the industry range from 15.43 times for Luoyang Molybdenum to 42.96 times for Zhongtung High-tech, indicating a significant disparity in valuation within the sector [2]
洛阳钼业(03993) - 截至2025年6月30日半年度业绩说明会


2025-08-15 12:05
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責,對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 CMOC Group Limited* 方式:上證路演中心(http://roadshow.sseinfo.com)視頻直播和網絡互動 3. 參加人員 參加業績說明會的人員為本公司獨立非執行董事和管理層。 截至2025年6月30日半年度業績說明會 1. 業續說明會類型 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司(「本公司」)將於2025年8月25日(星期一) 15:00-16:00舉行本公司截至2025年6月30日止半年度業績(「半年度業績」)之 業績說明會(「業績說明會」)。業績說明會將通過上海證券交易所上證路演中 心提供的網上平台採取視頻直播和網絡互動方式舉行,藉此,本公司將與投 資者就半年度業績及本公司的營運進行交流。 為了加強投資者的交流互動及讓投資者對本公司表現作出評價,歡迎本公司 股東及投資者參加本次網上說明會。 2. 網上說明會的召開時間及方式 時間:2025年8月25日(星期一)15:00-16:00 ...
洛阳钼业(03993) - 海外监管公告 - 关於召开2025年半年度业绩说明会的公告、关於对外担保...


2025-08-15 12:00
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責,對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 CMOC Group Limited* (於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) (股份代號:03993) 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作出。 以下為洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司(「本公司」)於上海證券交易所網站 (www.sse.com.cn )所發佈《洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司關於召開2025年半年度 業績說明會的公告》《洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司關於對外擔保計劃的公告》。 承董事會命 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司 劉建鋒 董事長 中華人民共和國河南省洛陽市, 二零二五年八月十五日 於本公告日期,執行董事為劉建鋒先生、孫瑞文先生及闕朝陽先生;非執行董 事為林久新先生及蔣理先生;及獨立非執行董事為王開國先生、顧紅雨女士及 程鈺先生。 * 僅供識別 证券代码:603993 证券简称:洛阳钼业 编号:2025-043 本次投资者说明会以视频结合网络互 ...