CMOC(603993)
Search documents
2026年度策略:物少天成贵,势来价自高
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-03 07:50
Precious Metals - The report highlights that gold remains a strong investment, with central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings, and gold ETFs experiencing sustained inflows during the interest rate cut cycle, indicating a bullish trend for gold prices [1][20] - Silver is expected to see significant price increases, driven by financial demand rather than industrial demand, with the gold-silver ratio indicating that silver is undervalued compared to gold [1][20] Industrial Metals - Copper is projected to experience a bullish market due to a clear supply-demand gap, supported by macroeconomic factors such as tariff reductions and increased capital expenditures, alongside strong demand from the energy and AI sectors [2][3] - Aluminum supply may face constraints due to high demand from data centers, with potential production risks and a tightening global supply-demand balance expected in 2026 [3] - Tin supply is limited due to global resource scarcity, while demand is expected to rise from the semiconductor and AI sectors, leading to a price increase [4] - Nickel prices are anticipated to recover as supply disruptions in Indonesia continue to impact the market [4] Energy Metals - Lithium demand is expected to surge, particularly from energy storage applications, with supply growth projected to slow down due to reduced capital expenditures by producers [7] - Cobalt prices are likely to rise due to export controls from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will create a supply gap that cannot be compensated by increases in Indonesian production [8] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to persistent supply-demand imbalances, with limited new supply expected before 2027 [9] - Antimony prices are projected to remain high due to rigid supply constraints and potential easing of export controls, which could enhance price elasticity [10] - The rare earth sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with prices likely to rise as demand from electric vehicles and robotics increases [11]
2026年格隆汇“下注中国”十大核心资产之洛阳钼业
格隆汇APP· 2026-01-03 07:49
时代浪潮奔涌,国运与产业共振催生核心资产价值。当全球供应链重构遇上新能源产业革命, 掌握核心资源、具备全球竞争力的龙头企业,早已成为格隆汇"下注中国"的关键标的。 洛阳钼业(603993.SH、3993.HK)这家从中国栾川走出的矿企,如今已成长为全球领先的 铜钴生产商,2025年股价暴涨超200%,市值突破4000亿元,正以"资源+贸易+新增长极"三 驾马车,书写中国矿业的全球化传奇。 | | 菅收(亿元) | 문다 | | --- | --- | --- | | 矿产贸易 | 888.9 | 61.1% | | | 386.2 | 26.5% | | 1 | 61.8 | 4.3% | | RE | 46.6 | 3.2% | | 磷肥 | 30.7 | 2.1% | | 三年 | 24.8 | www.gogudata.con1.7% | | F | 15.9 | 1.1% | 01 为什么是洛阳钼业?硬核逻辑梳理 洛阳钼业能从众多企业中脱颖而出,核心在于踩准了中国新能源转型的风口,更手握"需求绑 定+资源布局+业绩确定性"三大王牌。 1.铜钴高景气周期持续加码 它的核心优势,是深度绑定国内新能源产业链 ...
狂飙超94%,最强黑马板块是它!2026年怎么看,机构最新研判揭秘
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-01 04:26
Group 1: Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant performance of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2025, which achieved an annual index increase of 94.73%, marking it as the top-performing sector in the A-share market [1][4]. - The surge in non-ferrous metal prices, including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and lithium, is attributed to a combination of rigid supply constraints and structural demand growth, leading to a strong bull market for metals [4][5]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Performance - By the end of 2025, the A-share market capitalization of the non-ferrous metals industry approached 5 trillion yuan, with 12 stocks surpassing the 1 billion yuan market cap [5]. - Notable stocks such as Zijin Mining saw a remarkable increase of 133.09% in 2025, with its market cap exceeding 710 billion yuan [5]. - A total of 46 stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector reached historical highs in 2025, with key players like Luoyang Molybdenum and Tianshan Aluminum achieving significant gains [4]. Group 3: Technology Sector Activity - The technology sector experienced high trading activity, with an average daily trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a record high [8]. - The electronic industry led the trading activity with an average daily turnover of 266.57 billion yuan, driven by the AI revolution and domestic substitution trends [8][12]. - The market capitalization of the electronic sector reached 13.77 trillion yuan, surpassing the banking sector for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 5.56 trillion yuan [8]. Group 4: Financing Trends - In 2025, financing funds significantly flowed into the technology sector, with the electronic industry receiving a net buy of 165.53 billion yuan, the highest among all sectors [12][15]. - The financing balance for the electronic industry stood at 382.06 billion yuan, leading the market and indicating a shift in capital towards technology-focused investments [15]. Group 5: Outlook for 2026 - Institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2026, focusing on sectors such as technology growth, cyclical reversals, and domestic demand expansion [16][17]. - Key areas of interest for investment include AI applications, resource stocks, and innovative technologies like quantum technology and controlled nuclear fusion [16][17].
【环球财经】刚果(金)将允许2025年钴出口配额延续执行至3月底
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2026-01-01 00:50
Group 1 - The Congolese mining regulatory authority has decided to extend the cobalt export quotas set for Q4 2025 until March 31, 2026, to ensure a smooth implementation of the new quota system [1] - The total cobalt export cap for the year 2025 has been established at 96,600 tons, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounting for approximately 70% of global cobalt production [1] - The demand for cobalt has surged due to the rapid growth of the global electric vehicle industry, which has led to increased international cobalt prices following previous export restrictions [1] Group 2 - Glencore is expected to be one of the first companies to initiate shipments under the new quota system, while China Molybdenum has been preparing for its first cobalt exports [2] - China Molybdenum has been allocated a cobalt export quota of 6,650 tons for Q4 2025, and the company is working to comply with the Congolese government's export procedures [2] - Several administrative processes, including shipping, customs declaration, and final approvals, must be completed before the exports can officially commence [2] Group 3 - The Congolese government announced a suspension of cobalt exports in February 2025, initially set for four months, to address the oversupply in the international market that was causing a decline in prices [3]
2026年格隆汇“下注中国”十大核心资产名单,重磅揭晓!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-31 20:53
Core Insights - The 2026 "Bet on China" top ten core assets have been announced by Gelonghui, a well-known independent research institution in China, based on votes from millions of members across over 70 countries [1][3] - The selection process involved over half a month of voting, resulting in hundreds of thousands of valid votes, emphasizing the collective wisdom of global investors [3] Selection Criteria - The selected listed companies must meet four key principles, reflecting the uncertainties in the Chinese investment market for 2025, including fluctuating recovery expectations, real estate stability concerns, and the ambiguity in investment directions related to AI and new energy [2] Performance Metrics - Since the end of 2018, the "Bet on China" top ten core assets index has achieved a cumulative increase of 318.67%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index (+56.2%), Hang Seng index (-0.82%), and S&P 500 index (+175.3%) [3] - In 2025, the equal-weighted return of the top ten core assets reached 35.1%, again surpassing the CSI 300 index (+17.7%), Hang Seng index (+27.8%), and S&P 500 index (+17.3%) [3] Core Assets Overview 1. **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308)**: Expected to benefit from the acceleration of AI computing infrastructure in China, with a projected demand for optical modules reaching 18 billion yuan, and a 50% annual growth in domestic demand for 800G optical modules [5] 2. **Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)**: With a massive user base, Tencent is expected to see its advertising revenue exceed 40 billion yuan in 2026, driven by its social media platforms and AI efficiency improvements [6][7] 3. **Alibaba (09988.HK)**: Anticipated to achieve 170 billion yuan in revenue from cloud services, with a growth rate of 34%, while also focusing on domestic consumption upgrades [7][8] 4. **Gold ETF (518880)**: Positioned as a key hedging tool for domestic investors, with a forecasted gold price potentially reaching 5,000 USD per ounce, supported by liquidity and geopolitical factors [8] 5. **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993/03993.HK)**: Expected to produce 660,000 tons of copper and 120,000 tons of cobalt in 2026, benefiting from the growth of the domestic electric vehicle market [9] 6. **Ping An Insurance (601318/02318.HK)**: Projected to see a 20%-25% increase in market value, benefiting from the domestic interest rate cycle and a focus on quality equity assets [10] 7. **Dongfang Caifu (300059)**: Anticipated to see a 22%-28% growth in market value, driven by increased capital market activity and AI-driven wealth management services [11] 8. **Wanhua Chemical (600309)**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 15.5-16.2 billion yuan in 2026, supported by domestic demand for MDI and new materials [12] 9. **WuXi AppTec (02268.HK)**: Positioned as a leader in the ADC field, with over 60% of its pipeline serving domestic clients, reflecting the growth of China's biopharmaceutical industry [13] 10. **Trip.com Group (09961.HK)**: Projected to see a revenue growth of over 25%, benefiting from the recovery of domestic travel and tourism [14] Conclusion - The ten core assets are aligned with China's key sectors such as AI computing, new energy, consumption, finance, and biomedicine, reflecting the country's new productive forces and upgrading of livelihoods [14]
2026年格隆汇“下注中国”十大核心资产名单,重磅揭晓!
格隆汇APP· 2025-12-31 16:18
Core Insights - The article presents the "Top 10 Core Assets for 2026" as voted by millions of members from over 70 countries, highlighting the collective wisdom of global investors in navigating market uncertainties [2][5]. Summary by Categories Core Assets - The selected core assets include: - **Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创)**: Market cap of 6,778 million RMB, focusing on AI and advanced manufacturing [3] - **Tencent (腾讯)**: Market cap of 49,160 million RMB, centered on AI applications [3] - **Alibaba (阿里巴巴)**: Market cap of 24,500 million RMB, involved in AI and cloud computing [3] - **Gold ETF (黄金ETF)**: Market cap of 1 million RMB, categorized under precious metals [3] - **Luoyang Molybdenum (洛阳钼业)**: Market cap of 4,279 million RMB, with no specific industry listed [3] - **China Ping An (中国平安)**: Market cap of 12,400 million RMB, in the financial sector [3] - **Dongfang Caifu (东方财富)**: Market cap of 3,663 million RMB, with no specific industry listed [3] - **Wanhua Chemical (万华化学)**: Market cap of 2,400 million RMB, in the chemical industry [3] - **WuXi AppTec (药明合联)**: Market cap of 1,515 million RMB, in the pharmaceutical sector [3] - **Trip.com Group (携程集团)**: Market cap of 3,250 million RMB, in consumer discretionary [3] Market Context - The investment landscape in China for 2025 is characterized by uncertainties, including fluctuating recovery expectations, geopolitical tensions, and evolving trends in real estate and AI [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of collective intelligence in investment decisions, asserting that the aggregated insights from millions can effectively guide investors through market complexities [5][7]. Performance Metrics - From 2019 to 2025, the "Top 10 Core Assets Index" achieved a cumulative growth of 318.67%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index (+56.2%) and the Hang Seng Index (-0.82%) [11]. - In 2025, the equal-weighted return of the top assets reached 35.1%, again surpassing the performance of major indices [11]. Selection Criteria - The selected companies must meet four key principles: 1. Represent Chinese enterprises with a domestic market focus 2. Align with future economic directions and create long-term value 3. Possess competitive advantages or potential in emerging sectors 4. Have a projected market cap growth of 20% or more in 2026 [10] Individual Company Insights - **Zhongji Xuchuang**: Expected to benefit from a surge in AI-related demand, with a projected market cap growth of 25%-30% [12]. - **Tencent**: Anticipated to see a 25%-30% increase in adjusted net profit, driven by its strong domestic user base and advertising revenue [13]. - **Alibaba**: Forecasted to achieve a 25%-28% stock price increase, supported by its dual focus on AI and consumer markets [14]. - **Gold ETF**: Positioned as a key hedging tool, with a projected 28%-32% growth in fund inflows [15]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum**: Expected to maintain its leading position in the battery materials sector, with a projected net profit of 320-350 million RMB [16]. - **China Ping An**: Anticipated to grow its market cap by 20%-25%, benefiting from the domestic financial market's recovery [17]. - **Dongfang Caifu**: Projected to see a 22%-28% increase in market cap, driven by the growth in wealth management services [18]. - **Wanhua Chemical**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 155-162 million RMB, supported by domestic demand [19]. - **WuXi AppTec**: Positioned as a leader in the ADC field, with significant growth driven by domestic innovation [20]. - **Trip.com Group**: Forecasted to grow revenue by over 25%, capitalizing on the recovery of domestic travel [21]. Conclusion - The selected core assets reflect a strategic alignment with China's economic growth and key sectors, including AI, renewable energy, finance, and healthcare, emphasizing their potential for long-term value creation [22].
深度分析:洛阳钼业大涨超3%,还能继续持有吗?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-31 12:35
截至今天下午收盘,洛阳钼业大涨超过3.39%,有的投资者朋友问我:还可以买洛阳钼业吗?还能继续 持有吗?今天我就跟大家从基本面、技术面、未来成长潜力三个方面来聊一聊。 洛阳钼业是稀缺战略性矿产的龙头,下面我们来看一下其基本面: 首先,该公司在中国、非洲、南美洲布局了核心矿产资源,资源规模和质量都是排名全球前列。 1、在刚果金布局了铜和钴的矿产资源。持有两大世界级的铜矿,控制铜资源量超过3000万吨,钴资源 量超过200万吨,矿山铜品位、钴品位远超行业平均水平。2023年跻身全球第一大钴生产商。2024年跻 身全球前十铜矿生产商。 其铜生产成本为每吨3200美元,而行业平均值为每吨4800美元,每吨铜的生产成本比同行业低1600美 元。其钼的生产成本也稳居中国前三甲。其生产成本优势全球领先,这就增加了其利润。 第三,其子公司IXM为全球第三大金属贸易商,成功实现了生产、贸易的全产业链闭环,业绩确定性 强。同时与需求方宁德时代签订股权协议,宁德时代控股8.5%,意味着其订单具有稳定性。 其次,我们再来看看其具体的业绩 1、2025年前三季度其归母净利润142.8亿元,超越2024年全年的135.32亿元,5年5倍 ...
稀有金属ETF(562800)盘中涨近2%!磷酸铁锂行业集中减产检修,有望迎来周期性的拐点
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-31 03:44
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in the rare metals sector, with the CS Rare Metals Index rising by 1.14% and individual stocks like Western Materials and Shengxin Lithium Industry seeing gains of over 5% and 4% respectively [1] - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) has shown a year-to-date increase of over 92%, indicating strong investor interest and performance in this sector [1] - A wave of production cuts and maintenance in the lithium iron phosphate industry is anticipated as companies prepare for a surge in downstream demand by 2026, with Longpan Technology announcing a planned reduction in production starting January 1, 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to a report from CITIC Securities, the profitability of the lithium iron phosphate industry is expected to reach a cyclical turning point, with current profitability at a low point and potential for recovery as supply-demand dynamics improve [1] - The report emphasizes that the trend towards high-end products and international expansion is likely to yield excess profits for leading companies in the lithium iron phosphate sector [1] - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) tracks the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index, with its top ten weighted stocks including Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Huayou Cobalt, collectively accounting for approximately 60% of the fund [2]
有色金属股走强,江西铜业涨近9%领涨,铜价2025年涨幅超43%创2009年来最佳
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-31 03:28
Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant rise in non-ferrous metal stocks, particularly copper, with Jiangxi Copper leading the gains at nearly 9% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price increased by 2.7% to $12,550 per ton, reaching a historical high of $12,960 [1] - The annual cumulative increase in copper prices is approximately 43%, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Jiangxi Copper's market capitalization is 189.4 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 175.86% [2] - Silver Bond's stock rose by 6.58%, with a market cap of 12.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 39.88% [2] - Yunnan Copper's stock increased by 4.94%, with a market cap of 40.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 70.80% [2]
有色ETF基金(159880)红盘向上,COMEX白银期货涨近8%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 02:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal industry, with the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) rising by 0.72% and specific stocks like Guocheng Mining (000688) and Huayou Cobalt (603799) showing significant gains [1] - The COMEX gold futures increased by 0.2% to $4,352.3 per ounce, while spot gold rose by 0.17% to $4,338.83 per ounce, indicating a strong momentum in precious metals [1] - The article mentions a policy from the National Development and Reform Commission encouraging mergers and reorganizations in resource-constrained industries like alumina, which has led to a significant rise in alumina prices [1] Group 2 - The Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159880) closely tracks the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals, which includes 50 securities that reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals account for 52.34% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) being prominent [2]