Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the trading performance and financing activities of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. on December 31, with a stock price increase of 2.46% and a trading volume of 5.017 billion yuan [1] - On December 31, Luoyang Molybdenum had a financing buy amount of 369 million yuan and a financing repayment of 437 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of -67.59 million yuan [1] - As of December 31, the total balance of margin trading for Luoyang Molybdenum was 3.363 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 3.341 billion yuan, accounting for 0.96% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012, primarily engaged in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2] - The company's main business revenue composition includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), and others [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved an operating income of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.280 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - Luoyang Molybdenum has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of Luoyang Molybdenum included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 47.472 million shares to 695 million shares [3] - The Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF saw a decrease in holdings, while the E Fund CSI 300 ETF became a new shareholder with 86.4742 million shares [3]

业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 05 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格延续强势，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251229-20260102 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 1．一周行情回顾 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.71%，深证成指上涨 0.29%，沪深 300 下跌 0.09%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 3.31%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.39 个百分点。2）分子板块看， ...

Group 1 - The core objective for 2026 is to ensure the KFM Phase II project meets key milestones, preparing for the commissioning and trial production of the concentrator plant [2][5] - The KFM mine, operated by Luoyang Molybdenum in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is a world-class copper-cobalt mine [4] - In 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum announced an investment of $1.084 billion for the KFM Phase II project, expected to start production in 2027, adding an average of 100,000 tons of copper metal annually upon reaching full capacity [6] Group 2 - The copper futures market is expected to maintain a supply-demand imbalance in 2026, driven by significant demand growth from sectors such as electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and renewable energy [7][8] - The anticipated increase in copper demand is projected to outpace supply growth, as new projects like KFM require several years for completion, leading to sustained high prices [8] - The construction and management of the KFM project are characterized by tight schedules and complex coordination, contributing to a sense of achievement for the team involved [8]

| 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 603993 | 說明 | | 於上海證券交易所上市 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 17,460,842,176 | RMB | | 0.2 | RMB | | 3,492,168,435.2 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 17,460,842,176 | RMB | | 0.2 | RMB | | 3,492,168,435.2 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 4,278,862,035.2 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a strong fluctuation in lithium prices in the short term, supported by a backdrop of price reassessment across key metals [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel and coal production in 2026, which, combined with Vale's suspension of nickel mining, is expected to tighten supply and support nickel prices [1] - The cobalt market is expected to remain structurally tight, with prices likely to rise further due to ongoing supply constraints [2][5] - The antimony market is showing signs of recovery in exports, which may lead to domestic prices converging with higher international prices [6][18] - The lithium market is experiencing a continuous destocking trend, with prices expected to remain strong due to stable demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [8][19] - The rare earth market is tightening due to new export restrictions from Vietnam, which may further support prices [20] - The tin market faces uncertainties in supply due to ongoing issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's government plans to cut nickel production by approximately 34% in 2026, reducing the target to 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - Vale's Indonesian operations have halted nickel mining, contributing to supply tightness [1] - The cobalt market is expected to face structural supply constraints, with prices projected to rise due to a decrease in available export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][5] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise as supply remains tight, particularly with winter mining activities slowing down [6][18] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls that may further tighten supply and support higher domestic prices [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased to 118,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a 16.76% rise [8] - Continuous destocking in the lithium market is expected to support prices, with demand from the electric vehicle sector remaining robust [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - New export restrictions from Vietnam are expected to tighten global rare earth supply, supporting prices [20] - China continues to dominate the rare earth supply chain, with significant production capacity compared to other countries [20] Tin Industry Update - The tin market is facing uncertainties due to supply issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] - Recent increases in tin imports from Myanmar may help alleviate some supply concerns, but overall uncertainty remains [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of responsible land acquisition and resettlement practices in large mining projects, highlighting TFM's commitment to adhering to international standards and local regulations to ensure the rights and livelihoods of affected communities are respected and improved [1][9]. Group 1: Resettlement Process - TFM prioritizes resettlement and compensation for land users when mining operations impact local residents, following Congolese laws, environmental and social impact assessments, and international standards [3][11]. - The resettlement process involves participatory methods, ensuring affected communities are informed, engaged, and have channels to express their opinions, with negotiations conducted transparently in the presence of local leaders and organizations [3][11]. Group 2: Asset Assessment and Compensation - Before resettlement, TFM initiates a systematic process to inventory and assess the assets of affected individuals, which is crucial for ensuring fair compensation [4][12]. - Compensation is set at 150% of the assessed value of the assets, including transportation allowances and support for vulnerable groups, with a focus on capacity building through training in financial management and entrepreneurship [5][13]. Group 3: Diverse Resettlement Options and Livelihood Restoration - Affected individuals can choose to relocate to TFM-built resettlement villages or select urban areas within supported provinces, with agricultural support provided for three years to enhance food security and restore livelihoods [6][14]. - Families losing up to 2501 square meters of farmland receive agricultural supplies, and after the support period, they are encouraged to join savings and credit associations to improve financial inclusion and community resilience [6][14]. Group 4: Transparency and Accountability - TFM maintains a comprehensive archive of all relevant documents in both paper and electronic formats to ensure traceability and transparency in the resettlement process [7][15]. - An open grievance mechanism allows community members to submit complaints, with a commitment to respond within 45 days, reinforcing trust and participation in the resettlement process [7][15].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业周报 降息预期交易继续 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [分析师： Table_Author]宫帅 SAC 执证号：S0260518070003 SFC CE No. BOB672 010-59136660 gongshuai@gf.com.cn 分析师： 王乐 SAC 执证号：S0260523050004 021-38003617 wangle@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈琪玮 SAC 执证号：S0260524040003 SFC CE No. BTE650 021-38003631 chenqiwei@gf.com.cn 请注意，王乐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 -4% 16% 35% 55% 74% 94% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 有色金属 沪深300 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 工业金属与钢铁：内需预期有望改善，工业金属价格或高位运行。铜 铝：25 年 12 月 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that industrial metal prices have shown a significant upward trend, particularly for copper and tin, which are constrained by supply issues. Prices have gradually increased throughout the year, with copper reaching a historical high [14][15][39]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has been impressive, with a year-to-date weighted average increase of 100.46% as of December 11, 2025, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [26][33]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain favorable for industrial metals in 2026, with continued liquidity support from the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic policies aimed at boosting demand [39][10]. Group 2 - The report identifies AI and energy storage as significant drivers of marginal demand growth for copper and aluminum, with substantial capital expenditures from major cloud service providers expected to continue [45][58]. - For copper, the demand from AI data centers is projected to add approximately 26.8 thousand tons to total copper demand in 2026, driven by increased infrastructure investments [58][59]. - In the aluminum sector, while demand growth is anticipated, it is expected to be more limited compared to copper, with projected aluminum demand from data centers reaching around 78 thousand tons globally by 2026 [64][66]. Group 3 - The supply side for copper remains constrained due to ongoing production cuts and delays in new mining projects, which are expected to exacerbate structural shortages in the market [42][43]. - The aluminum market is facing a rigid supply ceiling domestically, with limited growth in production capacity and risks of shutdowns due to high electricity costs [43][44]. - The report recommends several companies with strong growth potential in the copper sector, including Shengtun Mining, Zangge Mining, and Zijin Mining, as well as companies in the aluminum sector like China Aluminum and China Hongqiao [11][39].

格隆汇1月4日｜入选逻辑：手握全球约23%钴储量及世界级铜钴矿集群，核心矿山铜钴品位远超行业平 均，KFM二期投产后将再增10万吨铜产能，叠加刚果(金)钴出口配额红利，量价共振支撑业绩高增。 通过资源禀赋优势与数字化改革降本，铜生产成本处在相对低位，"矿山+贸易"模式平滑周期波动，抗 风险能力行业领先。 铜钴受益新能源需求扩容，巴西金矿并购落地与厄瓜多尔金矿布局构建"铜金双极"，H股股权激励绑定 核心团队，长期成长确定性强。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant growth potential of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (洛阳钼业), highlighting its transformation into a global leader in copper and cobalt production, with a projected stock price increase of over 200% by 2025 and a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Business Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue structure for the first three quarters of 2025 shows that mineral trading accounted for 61.1% of total revenue, with copper and cobalt contributing 26.5% and 4.3% respectively [3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024, with a net profit of 135.32 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 64.03% [12]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1,454.85 billion yuan and a net profit of 142.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 72.61% [12]. Group 2: Market Position and Demand - The company is deeply integrated into the domestic new energy industry chain, benefiting from the rising demand for copper and cobalt, which are essential for electric vehicles and batteries [6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's cobalt products are primarily supplied to leading domestic battery manufacturers such as CATL and BYD, creating a closed-loop from raw materials to end demand [6]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, with copper prices expected to exceed $12,000 per ton by 2025 and cobalt prices rising over 154% from the beginning of the year [6]. Group 3: Global Resource Strategy - The company has established a global presence through strategic acquisitions in Asia, Africa, and South America, securing significant reserves of copper, cobalt, niobium, phosphate, molybdenum, and tungsten [8]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo include TFM, one of the largest copper-cobalt mines globally, ensuring a stable supply for the domestic new energy industry [9]. Group 4: Future Growth and Expansion - The company aims to produce 66,000 tons of copper and 12,000 tons of cobalt by 2026, with ongoing expansion projects expected to enhance production capacity significantly [21]. - The KFM Phase II project, set to be operational by 2027, will add 100,000 tons of copper production capacity, supporting the company's long-term growth objectives [17]. - The acquisition of gold mines in Brazil is expected to diversify revenue streams and enhance profitability, with projected annual gold production reaching 8 tons [20].