Group 1: Rare Metal ETF Performance - The Rare Metal ETF has a turnover rate of 11.57% during trading, with a transaction volume of 359 million yuan, indicating active market trading [3] - The latest scale of the Rare Metal ETF reached 3.08 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's share reached 3.67 billion shares, also a new high since inception, and ranks first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past three days, the Rare Metal ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 358 million yuan, totaling 551 million yuan [3] - As of October 10, the net value of the Rare Metal ETF has increased by 17.31% over the past three years [3] - The highest monthly return since inception is 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being five months and a maximum increase of 66.25%, averaging a monthly return of 8.60% [3] Group 2: Cobalt Export Quotas and Market Dynamics - According to CITIC Construction Investment, cobalt export quotas for Congo (Kinshasa) have been finalized, with Luoyang Molybdenum, Glencore, and Eurasian Resources holding the top three shares at 35.9%, 27.3%, and 21.6% respectively [4] - The total quota for 2026 and 2027 is set at 96,600 tons, which includes a basic quota of 87,000 tons allocated to production enterprises and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons [4] - Under the quota system, only about 44% of production can be exported, resulting in a reduction of over 100,000 tons [4] - Based on estimates for 2024, with a supply of 270,000 tons and demand of 230,000 tons, the market is expected to shift from a surplus of about 70,000 tons to a shortage of about 30,000 tons, potentially driving cobalt prices higher [4] Group 3: Rare Earth Export Controls - The Ministry of Commerce has issued four documents to strengthen rare earth export controls, adding five categories of medium and heavy rare earths to the export control list [4] - The controls also extend to the entire industrial chain, including equipment, technology, and raw materials, with additional regulations on overseas military and high-end semiconductor demands [4] - The strategic position of rare earths has been further reinforced through these measures [4] Group 4: Rare Metal Index and Investment Opportunities - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and others, collectively accounting for 59.91% of the index [4] - Investors can also participate in the rare metal sector through the Rare Metal ETF linked fund (014111) [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for price increases in copper due to supply disruptions and tariff impacts, suggesting that recent price pullbacks may present good buying opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, amid renewed tariff concerns between China and the US, recommending an increased allocation to gold [5] - The report notes significant price increases in cobalt intermediate products, forecasting continued price growth in 2026-2027 due to supply-demand imbalances [7] - The report discusses the tightening supply of rare earths due to new export controls, which may lead to price increases in the domestic market [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7554.83, with a 52-week high of 7783.14 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper rose by 0.76%, aluminum by 2.20%, zinc by 0.95%, and lead by 1.44%. Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold up by 3.80% and silver by 1.44% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 14,579 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,602 tons in aluminum, and an increase of 17,175 tons in lead [30]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government has issued conditions for obtaining and distributing cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2025 [1][2] - The DRC is expected to contribute 76% of global cobalt production in 2024, with a projected reduction in export supply over the next two years [10][11] - The report highlights potential supply shortages in the cobalt market due to various companies facing operational challenges [8][10] Summary by Sections Export Quota Details - The basic export quotas for cobalt in 2025 are set at 3,625 tons for October, and 7,250 tons for both November and December [2] - Quotas are allocated based on historical export volumes from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, with specific exclusions for certain companies [2][3] Company-Specific Quotas - Key companies and their basic export quotas for Q4 2025 include: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 6,650 tons - Glencore: 3,925 tons - Eurasian Resources: 2,125 tons - Gecamines: 1,475 tons [6][16] - The 2026 quotas for these companies are projected to be significantly higher, indicating a potential increase in production capacity [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a supply gap of approximately 25,500 tons in 2027, driven by increasing global demand for cobalt, particularly in electric vehicles [12][13] - The DRC's export supply is expected to decrease significantly, with a projected reduction of 12,340 tons over the next two years [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as: - Luoyang Molybdenum, which will hold a significant share of the DRC's export quotas - Huayou Cobalt, with substantial production capacity in Indonesia - Other companies like Likin Resources and Greeenmei, which are expanding their nickel and cobalt production capabilities [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for copper prices to rise in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights that the recent trade conflicts have temporarily suppressed copper prices, but a recovery is expected as downstream demand rebounds in Q4 [1][4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.3% month-on-month to 1.121 million tons, while year-on-year it increased by 11.6% [3][68]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate fell by 6.9 percentage points to 58.53% [3][76]. The report notes that air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 18%, 15%, and 9% for October, November, and December respectively [3][96]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 18.7% compared to September 29, 2025, while LME copper inventory decreased by 0.1% [2][24]. Price and Futures Summary - **Copper Prices**: As of October 10, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 85,910 RMB/ton, up 3.37% from September 30, while LME copper closed at 10,374 USD/ton, down 3.05% from October 3 [1][17]. - **Futures**: The active SHFE copper contract's open interest decreased by 5.6% week-on-week, with a total of 216,000 contracts [4][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that gold and rare earths may see a resurgence, while it also highlights opportunities for copper investments during market dips [8][13] - The report emphasizes that the deterioration of fiat currency credit and the need for safe-haven assets are driving gold prices upward, with gold stabilizing above $4,000 [8][13] - The upgrade of export controls on rare earths is seen as a strategic catalyst, potentially enhancing the value of the sector [14] - The report expresses confidence in the mid-term rise of copper prices due to fundamental supply-demand changes, recommending investors to look for opportunities in the copper sector [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to deteriorating fiat currency credit and increased demand for safe-haven assets [8][13] - The rare earth sector is poised for a strategic boost following the upgrade of export controls, which may lead to higher domestic prices [14] - The copper market is anticipated to experience a mid-term price increase driven by supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like electric vehicles and data centers [15][16] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry's profitability is under short-term pressure, with costs providing some support for steel prices [17] - Iron and steel production has seen slight declines, with traditional peak season demand yet to be validated [19] - Overall steel inventories are rising, indicating a potential oversupply situation [22] - Steel prices are maintaining a weak and stable trend, with notable price differentiation among various steel products [36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in August 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt are stable, while nickel prices have shown slight increases [50][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting strong performance and favorable market conditions [8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the recent increase in gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion due to renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - Industrial metals are expected to continue strengthening due to supply disruptions and robust demand, particularly in copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, while the SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 11.89% during the reporting period [1]. - Precious metals, including gold and silver, saw significant price increases of 6.48% and 2.48%, respectively [1]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Price and Stock Correlation - The report notes that aluminum prices are supported by a seasonal increase in demand and controlled inventory levels, with a current price of 20,950 RMB/ton [27]. - Copper prices are influenced by supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with a recent price of 10,374 USD/ton [12][41]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - The report highlights that aluminum production is expected to remain low due to increased direct supply ratios and seasonal demand, which supports price stability [25][26]. - Copper supply is under pressure from production cuts by major mining companies, which is expected to sustain higher prices [2][41]. 2.3 Lead, Tin, and Nickel - Lead prices have shown resilience due to tight supply conditions, with recent prices around 20,026 USD/ton [58]. - Nickel prices are fluctuating due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and supply concerns, currently priced at 122,180 RMB/ton [60]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have surged due to strong safe-haven demand, with a recent price of 4,035.50 USD/oz, reflecting a 6.48% increase [14][74]. - Silver prices are also rising, driven by industrial demand and investment interest, currently at 47.52 USD/oz [14][74]. 3.2 Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains robust, with prices supported by strong consumption in electric vehicles and energy storage, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 71,300 RMB/ton [14][3]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices around 331,500 RMB/ton [3][14]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, citing strong earnings forecasts and favorable market conditions [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in October, driven by stable inflows of external funds and anticipated rebounds in earnings growth across various industries due to low base effects from the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Expectations - The market is likely to continue the trend observed in September, with a low-slope upward movement [1]. - October marks the window for Q3 earnings reports, which are expected to show a rebound in profitability for most industries, enhancing market confidence [1]. - Major sectors of focus include new energy, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, which have seen increased attention [1][6]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Recommendations - Key areas of interest include AI computing, semiconductor self-sufficiency, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion, alongside the "anti-involution" theme which may see policy support [2]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is favored due to ongoing industry trends and potential catalysts such as the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [3]. Group 3: Broker Recommendations - As of October 10, 2025, 40 brokers have disclosed their top stock picks, involving 267 A-share companies, with many stocks being recommended by multiple brokers [3][4]. - The electronics sector leads with 61 companies included in the October broker picks, marking its 20th consecutive month as the most recommended sector [6][7]. - Other sectors with significant representation include power equipment, non-ferrous metals, automotive, machinery, and biomedicine, each with over 20 companies recommended [6][7]. Group 4: Notable Stocks and Performance - 24 stocks have been jointly recommended by three or more brokers, with notable mentions including Luxshare Precision, Keqing Network, and Zhaoyi Innovation, each recommended by six brokers [9]. - Zhaoyi Innovation, a leader in storage chips, has seen substantial institutional interest, with public funds holding nearly 27 billion yuan and northbound funds over 5.1 billion yuan [9]. - The stock of Zijin Mining, a leading non-ferrous metal company, has gained over 99% in the first three quarters of 2025, attracting significant attention from brokers [16]. Group 5: Industry Distribution of Recommended Stocks - The distribution of recommended stocks shows a notable increase in the number of picks from the power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors compared to the previous month, with increases of 17, 11, and 9 stocks respectively [6][7]. - Conversely, sectors such as non-bank financials, food and beverage, and telecommunications saw a decrease in recommended stocks, with non-bank financials dropping by 13 stocks [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, driven primarily by rising copper prices, with a notable increase of 24% in stock price over a few trading days, reaching a historical high of 18 yuan per share [2][4][6]. Company Performance - Since April 9, 2023, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has surged by 218%, increasing its market capitalization from 121 billion yuan to a peak of 384 billion yuan, and maintaining a market cap of 357.7 billion yuan as of October 10, 2023 [2][4]. - The company reported a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.07% [2][11]. Market Dynamics - The stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum is closely linked to copper prices, which have risen from 9,154 USD/ton to 10,867 USD/ton since April 11, 2023, marking an increase of 18.7% [8]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in the copper and cobalt markets, capitalizing on the growing demand driven by the global energy transition [3][10]. Strategic Initiatives - Luoyang Molybdenum has focused on acquiring high-quality mining resources, including significant stakes in world-class mines, which has established a long-term cost advantage [3][9]. - The company has adopted a "mining + trading" dual-driven model to maximize the value of its mining industry chain [6][10]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite strong performance, Luoyang Molybdenum faces challenges related to its dependence on cyclical industries and market volatility, particularly in the context of global supply chain uncertainties [2][4]. - The company is exploring new growth paths to reduce reliance on cyclical profits and ensure sustainable growth [2][10].

Investment Themes - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement, China State Construction, and Ningde Times in the cyclical sector[2] - In the consumer sector, recommended stocks include Hengrui Medicine and Shanxi Fenjiu[2] - In the power equipment and new energy vehicle sector, recommended stocks include Ningde Times and Goldwind Technology[2] - In the TMT sector, recommended stocks include Longi Green Energy and Luxshare Precision[2] Market Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.25%, and the ChiNext Index by 50.40%[4] - The average gain of the recommended stock portfolio was 33.11%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index's gain of 17.90%[4] - Key outperformers included Huaxin Cement and Ningde Times, with quarterly gains exceeding 50%[4] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with a focus on "appropriate easing" in monetary policy to support growth[4] - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery but remained in contraction territory as of September[4] - The report anticipates continued inflow of foreign capital due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets[4] Company Highlights - Huaxin Cement's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.30, with a PE ratio of 14.27[6] - China State Construction's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.16, with a PE ratio of 4.68[12] - China Rare Earth's projected EPS for 2025 is 0.34, with a PE ratio of 150.92[25] - Hengrui Medicine's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.26, with a PE ratio of 56.90[33]