Group 1 - The stock price of JiuGuiJiu (000799) closed at 47.47 yuan on July 11, 2025, down 0.46% with a turnover rate of 6.0% and a trading volume of 195,000 hands, resulting in a transaction amount of 934 million yuan [1] - On July 11, the net outflow of main funds was 48.89 million yuan, accounting for 5.23% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors had a net inflow of 30.03 million yuan, accounting for 3.22% of the total transaction amount [2][3] - JiuGuiJiu plans to donate 2 million yuan to support education, medical care, technology, and cultural projects in Luozha County, Tibet, as part of its corporate social responsibility initiatives [2][3] Group 2 - The donation does not require approval from the board of directors or shareholders, and it is not considered a related party transaction [2] - The company has a history of making donations to aid projects, which reflects its commitment to social responsibility and enhances its brand image and social influence [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation within the industry, particularly in the liquor segment, where companies are actively seeking transformation amid market pressures. It emphasizes three main investment themes: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible companies benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang are expected to show strong profit growth, with Yanjing projected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a challenging half-year, with demand and policy impacts leading to a slowdown in sales. The report anticipates that the performance expectations for the mid-year and the entire year of 2025 have been largely adjusted [2]. - Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on service enhancement and transformation strategies to navigate the current market conditions. The report suggests that the upcoming month of September will be critical for assessing the impact of policies and consumer demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. Zhujiang Beer is also projected to see a profit increase of 15% to 25% [3]. - Eastroc Beverage is forecasted to generate revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% to 42% year-on-year [3]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that companies like Youyou Foods and Miaokelando are expected to report significant profit increases, with Youyou Foods projecting a revenue growth of 40.91% to 50.77% [7]. - The overall consumer goods sector is highlighted as a space to watch for growth, particularly for companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage index increased by 0.8% from July 7 to July 11, ranking 23rd among 28 sectors, performing in line with the CSI 300 index. The sub-sectors of liquor (+1.4%), health products (+1.4%), and beer (+1.2%) showed relatively strong performance [11][12] - The current liquor market is experiencing downward pressure due to unexpected restrictions on alcohol consumption, leading to a decline in demand. However, it is anticipated that the liquor sector will find a bottom in the second half of the year, presenting potential investment opportunities [11][12] - The report suggests focusing on leading liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others for strategic investments. Additionally, it recommends identifying high-quality new consumption companies that align with industry trends for long-term holding [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Strategic focus on leading liquor companies and maintaining high-quality new consumption stocks. The liquor sector is expected to stabilize and present investment opportunities in the second half of the year [11][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance is consistent with the broader market, with specific sub-sectors like liquor and health products outperforming [12][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with whole milk powder prices showing a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, while fresh milk prices have decreased by 6.5% year-on-year [15][20] Liquor Industry News - The market price of Kweichow Moutai has been steadily increasing, indicating a recovery in market confidence. Other companies are also taking measures to stabilize their pricing strategies [39] Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, and others, focusing on companies with strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [4][45]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downward price trend, driven by changes in consumer demand and market dynamics, as indicated by recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics [1][5]. Price Trends - National data shows that liquor prices have decreased by 1.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month as of June 2025, with an overall decline of 2.0% in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The price of premium liquor brands, such as Feitian Moutai, has dropped from over 3000 yuan to below 2000 yuan, indicating a significant reduction in market premium [4]. Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers moving away from traditional high-alcohol liquor towards lower-alcohol options and craft beers, leading to a contraction in the white liquor market [5][6]. - The demand for high-priced liquor for business banquets and gifts has decreased, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises facing financial pressures [5][6]. Supply and Inventory Issues - The white liquor industry is facing overproduction and high inventory levels, with a reported production decline of 7.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - Companies are resorting to price reductions as a means to clear excess inventory, with distributors eager to recover funds through lower pricing strategies [6]. Market Dynamics - The rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales has intensified price competition and increased price transparency, reducing the ability of traditional channels to maintain high prices [6]. - The shift from "face consumption" to a more rational consumer mindset emphasizes value for money and quality, challenging the high-end liquor market's previous status as a social currency [6].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades four stocks: Fen Wine, Luzhou Laojiao, ZJLD to Neutral from Buy, and Anhui Gujing to Sell from Neutral, while maintaining Buy on Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [9][36]. Core Insights - The current cycle for the spirits industry is likely prolonged due to the impact of the new austerity policy, with uncertainties on when the cycle will bottom out [1][14]. - The report anticipates policy headwinds to persist from 2Q25 to 2Q26, followed by a modest impact in 2H26 as improper dining restrictions for civil servants normalize [2][14]. - The spirits industry is expected to see a decline in total addressable market (TAM) by 10% to 14% in 2025-27E, with a forecasted decline of over 6% in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026 [2][14]. Summary by Sections Risk Profiling - A policy impact ranking analysis indicates that upper mid-end and commercial banquet-focused products will face greater pressure, while Moutai is expected to remain resilient due to its gifting demand and limited exposure to government-related banquet consumption [2][12]. Earnings and Valuation Analysis - The report projects +1%/+5% aggregated topline growth for 2025/26E, down from previous estimates of +6%/+9%, with high-end spirits expected to grow by +5%/+5% and upper-mid-high end spirits facing declines of -10%/+2% [2][14]. - A bear case analysis suggests potential earnings downside risks of 6% to 18% for most spirits names compared to the base case [2][14]. Industry Growth Forecast - The spirits industry growth forecast has been revised down to a greater than 6% decline in 2025 and a -2% decline in 2026, compared to prior forecasts of +4%/+3% growth [2][14]. - The report highlights that the spirits industry has been consolidating, with leading players gaining market share, particularly in the super premium segment [2][25]. Company-Specific Insights - Moutai's wholesale price stability is supported by various measures, and the report suggests that a price below RMB 1,800 could hurt distributor profits, leading to market volatility [8][14]. - The report revises down sales and net profit estimates for various companies, including a 1% to 19% reduction for most names, reflecting the impact of the new policy [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period, prompting liquor companies to collaborate strategically with "traffic channel merchants" to launch new products, exemplified by the partnership between Pang Donglai and Baofeng Liquor, which is expected to generate approximately 1 billion yuan in revenue within the year [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The collaboration between liquor companies and traffic channel merchants is not an isolated case, with multiple instances of co-branded products emerging, such as "Free Love" by Pang Donglai and Baofeng Liquor, and "Yanghe Daqu" by JD and Yanghe Co. [3][4]. - The "liquor company + traffic channel merchant" model has become a significant strategy for addressing inventory pressure and sales challenges in the industry [3][5]. - The partnership model has shown promising short-term results, with "Free Love" projected to achieve 1 billion yuan in revenue and Yanghe Daqu selling over 10,000 bottles within 48 hours on JD [4][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The collaboration aims to leverage the terminal control and user assets of traffic channel merchants to enhance product sales and reduce customer acquisition costs [5][6]. - The liquor industry faces a critical challenge of high channel inventory and weak terminal sales, necessitating a shift from traditional distribution models to more direct sales approaches [6][7]. - Data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association indicates that 58.1% of distributors reported increasing inventory levels in the first half of 2025, highlighting the ongoing inventory pressure in the market [6]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The increasing collaboration between liquor companies and traffic channel merchants is expected to evolve, with a focus on creating differentiated products and transitioning from "channel-driven" to "brand-driven" strategies [8][9]. - The historical evolution of this collaboration model reflects a shift from simple supply relationships to strategic partnerships, emphasizing the need for liquor companies to understand consumer demands and develop unique products to stand out in a competitive market [9][10].

证券代码：000799 证券简称：酒鬼酒 公告编号：2025-16 二、对公司的影响 公司已连续多年向援扶对象捐赠帮扶资金，此次捐赠事项是公司 持续积极履行社会责任、回馈社会的举措，有利于彰显公司服务国家 战略的使命担当，有利于提升公司品牌形象和社会影响力。本次对外 捐赠事项不会对公司经营产生重大影响。 特此公告 酒鬼酒股份有限公司董事会 2025年7月11日 酒鬼酒股份有限公司 关于对外捐赠的公告 本公司及其董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、捐赠事项概述 酒鬼酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）为切实履行公司的社 会责任，提升公司品牌形象，拟向西藏洛扎县捐赠帮扶资金人民币 200 万元，用于当地教育、医疗、科技、文化等帮扶项目。根据《深 圳证券交易所股票上市规则》及《公司章程》等相关规定，本事项无 须提交董事会及股东会审议。本次对外捐赠事项不构成关联交易。 ...

酒鬼酒：拟向西藏洛扎县捐赠帮扶资金200万元 智通财经7月10日电，酒鬼酒(000799.SZ)公告称，公司拟向西藏洛扎县捐赠帮扶资金200万元，用于当 地教育、医疗、科技、文化等帮扶项目。此次捐赠是公司持续积极履行社会责任、回馈社会的举措，不 会对公司经营产生重大影响。 ...

酒鬼酒（000799）公告，公司拟向西藏洛扎县捐赠帮扶资金200万元，用于当地教育、医疗、科技、文 化等帮扶项目。此次捐赠不构成关联交易，且不会对公司经营产生重大影响。 ...

Group 1 - Fenggu Liquor Industry has appointed Chen Chao as the chairman candidate, indicating a positive change in the industry after its bankruptcy restructuring [1] - Chen Chao, born in June 1989, has extensive experience in the liquor industry and management, which may enhance market confidence in Fenggu's recovery [1] Group 2 - Fat Donglai's founder Yu Donglai announced that the "Free·Love" product line is expected to generate around 1 billion yuan in revenue this year, showcasing the brand's ambition to achieve international quality standards [2] - The collaboration between Fat Donglai and Baofeng Distillery to launch "Free·Love" reflects an innovative approach in the retail sector, potentially opening new sales channels for traditional liquor companies [2] Group 3 - Moutai and Xijiu have donated a total of 20 million yuan for disaster recovery efforts in Qiandongnan Prefecture, demonstrating corporate social responsibility and strengthening their brand image [3] - The donations include 10 million yuan from Moutai and 3 million yuan from Xijiu, highlighting the close relationship between local liquor companies and regional development [3]