底价成交。 作为房地产市场的关键上游，土地市场的供应规模、成交价格以及政策调控走向均对市场产生深远影 响。与北上广等其他一线城市相比，深圳上半年宅地出让数量相对较少，但近期出让数量已经显著回 升。业内人士普遍认为，这一变化是深圳积极应对市场下行压力，主动调整土地供应策略的有力举措。 中指研究院的数据显示，今年上半年300城住宅用地出让金同比增长27.5%，但成交面积仍下降5.5%， 其中一线及二线城市出让金增长均超过40%，而三四线城市仍小幅回落。从城市集中度来看，上半年 TOP20城市宅地出让金占全国比重升至68%，杭州、北京涉宅用地出让金均超千亿元，杭州出让金已接 近去年全年水平。头部房企投资策略趋于一致，投资拿地进一步聚焦，叠加核心城市优质地块供应力度 加大，上半年北京、上海、深圳、杭州、成都多宗地块竞拍出高溢价。 近段时间以来，多个重点城市的土地市场热度不减。7月23日，苏州共有两宗地块开启限时竞价，分别 位于园区双湖、吴中郭巷。其中，园区双湖地块经过49轮竞拍，由绿城房地产集团有限公司以总价 46.67亿元竞得，成交楼面价每平方米65241.78元，溢价率8.74%，该地块成交楼面价刷新江苏省当前最 ...

Core Insights - The land auction in Shenzhen's Longhua District concluded with a base price transaction, highlighting the scarcity of low-density residential land in core areas [1] - Recent trends indicate a divergence in land auction results, with "super core" areas experiencing high demand while secondary core areas face cooling interest from developers [2] - The overall land supply and transaction prices in the real estate market are crucial for influencing market dynamics, with a notable increase in land auction activity in Shenzhen as a response to market pressures [2] Group 1 - The A815-0036 plot in Longhua was sold for 1.906 billion yuan, translating to a floor price of approximately 28,050 yuan per square meter [1] - In contrast, the Qianhai Guiwan plot was sold for 2.155 billion yuan with a floor price of about 84,000 yuan per square meter, marking an 86% premium [1] - The A802-0309 plot in Longhua was acquired for 2.37 billion yuan, with a floor price of 27,565.89 yuan per square meter and a premium of 40.7% [1] Group 2 - The land auction market in Shenzhen is characterized by a trend where top-tier developers are cautious about non-super core plots, focusing instead on high-demand areas [2] - The first half of the year saw a 27.5% increase in land auction revenue across 300 cities, despite a 5.5% decline in transaction area [2] - The top 20 cities accounted for 68% of the national land auction revenue, with cities like Hangzhou and Beijing surpassing 100 billion yuan in land sales [2] Group 3 - Recent land auctions in key cities like Suzhou have shown continued high demand, with a record floor price of 65,241.78 yuan per square meter achieved by Greentown Real Estate [3] - Developers are increasingly prioritizing project safety and profitability, particularly in core urban areas where land scarcity drives high premium transactions [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [3][19]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to stabilize the economy and support urban renewal initiatives [3][6]. - Urban renewal is highlighted as a key focus, with the central government calling for high-quality implementation of urban renewal projects, particularly in core first- and second-tier cities [3][11]. - The report suggests that the current real estate market is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, aligning with the "good housing" development direction, which is expected to create significant opportunities for quality real estate companies [3][11]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The central government aims to enhance fiscal spending and maintain liquidity to lower financing costs for businesses and residents [3][6]. - The emphasis is on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency [3][6]. Urban Renewal - The report notes that urban renewal is being positioned as a critical measure to boost demand, particularly through the transformation of urban villages [3][11]. - The central government has set higher standards for urban renewal, indicating a shift towards improving existing urban environments rather than merely expanding [3][11]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - The report identifies a potential bottoming out of broad housing demand, with expectations for policy measures to further stimulate the market, including urban renewal and mortgage rate reductions [3][11]. - Quality real estate companies are expected to lead the recovery, with improvements in return on equity (ROE) driven by better inventory management rather than increased leverage [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate firms with strong product capabilities and inventory management, such as Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, and China Resources Land [3][11]. - It also highlights undervalued firms like Xincheng Holdings and China Overseas Development as potential investment opportunities [3][11].

Group 1: Real Estate Development and Property Services Valuation - As of July 25, 2025, the real estate sector (Shenwan) has a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.78, ranking in the 90.45th percentile historically since 2024 [3] - The Hang Seng real estate and construction sector has a PB of 0.44, ranking in the 98.69th percentile historically since 2024 [3] - From July 1 to July 25, 2025, the real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 7.8%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.93 percentage points [3] - Key A-share real estate companies with the highest gains during this period include New Town Holdings (+12.2%), China Merchants Shekou (+9.3%), and Gemdale Corporation (+7.4%) [3] Group 2: Property Services Market Performance - From July 1 to July 25, 2025, the property services sector (Shenwan) rose by 3.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.20 percentage points [4] - The Hang Seng property services and management index increased by 5.1%, also underperforming the Hang Seng index by 0.37 percentage points [4] - Key A-share property service companies with the highest gains include TeFa Service (+10.4%), World Union (+9.2%), and Ningbo Fuda (+5.9%) [4] Group 3: Public Fund Holdings in Real Estate - As of the end of Q2 2025, public funds held a total market value of approximately 48.4 billion yuan in real estate stocks, down from 54.8 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025 [5] - This represents about 0.14% of net asset value and 0.67% of stock investment value, indicating a lower allocation compared to standard industry benchmarks by 0.56 percentage points [5] Group 4: Market Trends and Opportunities - In the first half of 2025, the sales amount of commodity residential properties in six major cities (excluding affordable housing) reached 913.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.0% increase [6] - The average transaction price of land in core cities increased by 22.8% to 12,009 yuan per square meter [6] - Notable real estate companies with strong sales performance include China Jinmao (36.8 billion yuan, +19.6% YoY) and Yuexiu Property (36.9 billion yuan, +10.8% YoY) [6]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to "stabilize the real estate market and stock market," indicating that the stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][48] - The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.3%, the ChiNext Index by 2.8%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.7%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 4.1% [5][8] - The top five stocks in terms of price increase were *ST Nan Zhi (+15.4%), Hainan Airport (+14.5%), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (+12.4%), Tibet City Investment (+11.8%), and Dayuecheng (+10.6%) [5] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of July 19-25, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.69 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 19.4% [15] - In July (up to the week of July 25), new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 5.77 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 28.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.9% [19] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of July 19-25, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.95 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 1.8% [31] - In July (up to the week of July 25), second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 6.96 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 3.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [35] Industry News - The State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations," marking a new phase of legalization and standardization in the housing rental market [48] - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in real estate development loans, indicating a recovery in growth [48] - The Ministry of Finance reported that the revenue from state-owned land transfers in the first half of 2025 was 1.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [48] Company Announcements - China Merchants Shekou issued the first phase of corporate bonds worth 800 million yuan with an interest rate of 1.70% for a term of 3 years [51] - China Jinmao issued the first phase of unsecured medium-term notes worth 2 billion yuan with an interest rate of 2.30% for a term of 3 years [51] - Binhai Group acquired the land use rights for a state-owned construction site in Hangzhou, covering an area of 36,496 square meters with a total price of 1.53 billion yuan [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the real estate development sector, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Binjiang Group, while also giving a "Buy" rating to China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and China Jinmao in the H-share sector [37][71]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown resilience, with the real estate (Shenwan) index rising by 7.8% from July 1 to July 25, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.93 percentage points [29][37]. - The report highlights a structural alpha opportunity in the real estate sector, particularly for leading companies with strong brand recognition and product reputation, despite a weak beta performance overall [4][65]. - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal and structural optimization in high-capacity core cities, which are expected to benefit from ongoing real estate policies [70][71]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development Sector Valuation and Key Companies - As of July 25, 2025, the real estate (Shenwan) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 42.93, with a historical percentile of 99.45% [11][20]. - The top-performing A-share real estate companies from July 1 to July 25, 2025, include New Town Holdings (+12.2%), China Merchants Shekou (+9.3%), and JinDi Group (+7.4%) [29][31]. Property Services Sector Valuation and Key Companies - The real estate services (Shenwan) P/E ratio is 46.73, with a historical percentile of 86.21% as of July 25, 2025 [2][40]. - The top-performing A-share property service companies during the same period are TeFa Service (+10.4%), World Union (+9.2%), and Ningbo Fuda (+5.9%) [51][55]. Public Fund Holdings in Real Estate Sector - As of the end of Q2 2025, public funds held a total market value of approximately 484.4 billion yuan in real estate stocks, representing a decrease from 548.4 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025 [3][63]. Market Trends and Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the sales amount for commodity residential properties in major cities increased by 6.0%, while the overall sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 11.4% [4][66]. - The report notes a significant increase in land transaction prices and areas in key cities, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [67][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: stable leading companies with high product reputation, companies with rich existing resources, and the long-term growth potential of the property services sector [71][70].

Core Insights - The sixth batch of land auctions in Shanghai raised a total of 28.96 billion yuan, with an overall premium rate of 22.33% [1] - The auction saw 8 plots available, with 7 plots sold at a premium, indicating strong demand in the Shanghai land market [1][6] - The XH-02 (TPL) unit 051-11 plot in Xuhui District set a new national floor price record, sold for 1.225 billion yuan at a price of 200,300 yuan per square meter [2][6] Company Insights - Shanghai Qixiang Wangyu Real Estate Co., Ltd., a new player in the market, won the record-setting plot, indicating the entry of new developers into the competitive landscape [2][5] - The actual controller of Shanghai Qixiang is Ye Shuqing, who is linked to multiple enterprises across various sectors, including real estate and automotive [2][5] - Ye Huabiao, associated with Shanghai Qixiang, is known for his significant role in the automotive industry, particularly as a major supplier for leading car manufacturers [5] Industry Trends - Major real estate companies such as China Overseas Land & Investment, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Real Estate actively participated in the bidding, reflecting the attractiveness of Shanghai's land market [1][6] - The auction results suggest that developers are focusing on prime urban areas, as these locations tend to maintain strong market performance [8] - The competitive bidding for core plots indicates a strategic move by leading firms to secure valuable land for future projects, ensuring a healthy cycle in the real estate market [8]

Overview - The aging population and increasing health awareness in China are driving rapid development in the health and wellness real estate market, with the market size reaching 15,510 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 1.51% [1][11] - However, the market is expected to decline to 13,918 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.89%, due to the transition from a new housing era to a stock housing era [1][11] Market Segmentation - Health and wellness real estate products can be categorized into six types: smart health residential communities, active senior communities, health tourism communities/towns, medical and nursing institutions, health complexes, and health industrial parks [2][5] - The main revenue models include property sales, operational services, health and wellness services, elderly care operations, and property leasing [2] Development History - The health and wellness real estate industry in China began in the 1980s, initially focusing on basic medical care and daily assistance for the elderly [6] - The concept of "health and wellness" was proposed in 2010, leading to the establishment of health tourism demonstration bases and the integration of health services with tourism and leisure [6] Current Market Situation - The health and wellness real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with a significant decline in market size anticipated in the coming years [11] - The increasing elderly population, projected to reach 21,969 million by 2024, is creating a substantial demand for health and wellness services [9] Competitive Landscape - Major real estate companies such as Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Resources Land are actively investing in the health and wellness sector [13][16] - Poly Developments has established a comprehensive "three-in-one" elderly care system, covering professional care, cognitive care, and travel elderly care [13][15] Future Trends - The health and wellness real estate sector is expected to focus on creating age-friendly communities that cater to both elderly and younger populations, emphasizing a vibrant community atmosphere [21] - There will be a greater emphasis on location selection, favoring suburban areas or satellite cities that offer a balance of natural surroundings and urban connectivity [21]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何看待反内卷对地产的间接影响？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 地产行业属性与传统产能概念差别很大，直接出台相关反内卷政策的概率不高，但也会受到一 些间接影响。反内卷一定程度上将缓和物价下行压力，有助于降低实际利率，但可能对生产、 就业和收入等总量数据造成一定压力。关键还是需求端扩张性政策的配合，既提升居民就业和 收入预期，反内卷又降低实际利率，如此方能更有效地提振地产需求；但如果没有收入提升预 期，物价的提升反而会压制实际可支配收入，提振地产需求依赖总需求扩张引致的良性通胀， 而非供给侧优化之下的成本上涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何看待反内卷对地产的间接影响？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期有所提振， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][30]. Core Insights - The real estate market is currently experiencing a trend of destocking, with new housing market conditions still under pressure. The central government's recent statements indicate a shift towards more robust measures to stabilize the market [4][30]. - The report highlights the importance of product strength and inventory management capabilities in identifying quality real estate companies for investment [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New housing transaction volume in 34 key cities increased by 19.9% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 24.5% increase, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 24.7% decrease [5][8]. - In July, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 687.5 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6% [8][9]. - The inventory of residential properties in 15 cities increased by 0.2% week-on-week, with a corresponding average monthly de-stocking period of 20 months [21][22]. 2. Industry Policies and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3% for one year and 3.5% for five years in July [30][31]. - Various local governments have introduced policies to stimulate the housing market, including the cancellation of housing sales restrictions and adjustments to housing provident fund loan rules [30][31]. - The report notes that the fiscal revenue from property taxes increased by 12% year-on-year, while land appreciation tax revenue decreased by 17.6% [30][31]. 3. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing activities, with notable issuances including China Merchants Shekou's bond issuance of 800 million yuan at a 1.70% interest rate [36][37]. - The report mentions that Beike-W repurchased approximately 2.49 million shares for about 16 million USD during the week [38].