Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gaining attention due to increased external uncertainties and positive domestic policy signals, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth [12][16] - The liquor sector is expected to show a "front low, back high" performance trend for the year, with a focus on inventory digestion in the first half and gradual demand recovery in the second half [17][32] - The consumer goods sector, particularly those related to the catering supply chain and benefiting from fertility policy catalysts, is highlighted for potential investment opportunities [39] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Expectations and Industry Focus - Increased external uncertainties have led to a heightened focus on domestic demand as a crucial element for economic growth [12] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption have positively influenced market confidence, with a comprehensive action plan to enhance consumer spending [13][16] 2. Liquor Sector - Liquor sales during the Spring Festival saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 10%, with a focus on inventory management during the off-peak season [17] - High-end liquor demand remains stable, while mid-range and regional brands are experiencing varied performance based on market conditions [19] - Major liquor companies are engaging in share buybacks and increasing shareholdings to bolster market confidence [24][30] 3. Consumer Goods Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors related to the catering supply chain, with specific attention to the seasoning, beer, dairy, and snack segments [39] - The seasoning sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in restaurant consumption, while the beer sector is poised for growth due to the resurgence of dining scenarios [40] - Dairy demand is anticipated to rise following the introduction of fertility subsidies in various regions, which could positively impact dairy company performance [39]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index reported at 24307.01 points [1] - The CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index has decreased by 1.04% over the past month, increased by 6.78% over the past three months, and has decreased by 0.32% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 300 Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [2] Group 2 - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index are: Kweichow Moutai (50.89%), Wuliangye (13.09%), Yili (9.64%), Shanxi Fenjiu (5.39%), Luzhou Laojiao (4.82%), Haitian Flavoring (3.66%), Dongpeng Beverage (3.02%), Yanghe Distillery (2.28%), Jinshiyuan (1.92%), and Shuanghui Development (1.45%) [2] - The market share of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index is 75.95% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 24.05% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] Group 3 - The industry composition of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index shows that liquor accounts for 79.81%, dairy products for 9.64%, condiments and cooking oil for 4.64%, soft drinks for 3.02%, meat products for 1.45%, and beer for 1.43% [3] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made when the CSI 300 Index samples are modified [3]

Industry Dynamics - In March, the production of liquor by large-scale enterprises in China decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, totaling 378,000 kiloliters, with a cumulative production of 1,032,000 kiloliters in the first three months, down 7.3% year-on-year [4] - Beer production increased by 1.9% year-on-year in March, reaching 3,128,000 kiloliters, but the cumulative production for the first three months fell by 2.2% [4] - Wine production saw a significant decline of 25% year-on-year in March, with a total of 9,000 kiloliters produced, and a cumulative production of 24,000 kiloliters in the first three months, also down 25% [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a list of 40 key traditional food industries for cultivation, including liquor categories such as Baijiu, Huangjiu, and wine, aimed at boosting economic development and enhancing domestic demand [4] - Five liquor enterprises were recognized in the national-level skills master studio list, highlighting the industry's focus on skill development and training [7] Company Dynamics - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 14.667 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a net profit of 1.056 billion yuan, up 63.74% [8] - Shanghai Gui Jiu (Rocky Co.) reported a revenue of 285 million yuan, a significant decline of 82.54%, with a net loss of 217 million yuan, down 349.63% [9] - Tianyoude Jiu reported a revenue of 1.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.69%, but a net profit decline of 52.96% to 42.135 million yuan [10] - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, with a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [10] - Moutai achieved sales exceeding 10 million yuan during the China International Consumer Products Expo, showcasing strong consumer interest in its products [10] - Luzhou Laojiao received the first data intellectual property registration certificate in the liquor industry for real-time monitoring data of bottled liquor, indicating a focus on quality control [11] - Yanghe Baijiu's cellar group was certified by Guinness World Records as the largest scale of liquor cellars, emphasizing the company's production capacity [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent quarterly report of E Fund's star fund manager Zhang Kun, highlighting his portfolio adjustments and investment philosophy amidst changing market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Adjustments - As of the end of Q1 2025, Zhang Kun's managed funds have a total scale exceeding 60.82 billion yuan, an increase of 1.841 billion yuan from the end of the previous year [2]. - The largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Selection, saw its scale grow by over 1.4 billion yuan to 38.908 billion yuan, while E Fund Quality Selection increased by 500 million yuan to 14.169 billion yuan [2]. - All four funds experienced varying degrees of net redemptions, with E Fund Blue Chip Selection facing a net redemption of 960 million units [3]. Group 2: Portfolio Composition and Strategy - Zhang Kun maintained a high stock position, with stock holdings remaining above 94% across his funds, and a consistent allocation of around 45% in Hong Kong stocks [4]. - In Q1, he optimized the structure of his holdings, reducing exposure to internet stocks while increasing investments in logistics and tourism sectors [5]. - Major reductions were noted in holdings of Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and Yanghe Brewery, with reductions around 30% for Alibaba and Yanghe, and over 10% for Tencent [5][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Philosophy - Zhang Kun emphasized that the stock market's returns are fundamentally linked to corporate earnings, which he believes will not remain below the return on equity (ROE) levels for an extended period [7]. - He noted improvements in competitive landscapes across certain industries and highlighted the importance of focusing on companies with strong business models and shareholder-friendly capital allocation [7]. - The manager expressed optimism regarding the economic impact of real estate downturns and consumer stimulus policies, suggesting that investors should concentrate on corporate performance rather than macroeconomic concerns [7].

Group 1 - Public funds have adjusted their holdings in the first quarter, with the top three heavyweights being CATL, Kweichow Moutai, and Tencent Holdings, with total market values of 146.78 billion, 141.49 billion, and 84.89 billion respectively [1] - The overall market for alcoholic beverages in China is facing challenges such as intensified competition, excess capacity, and changing consumer preferences, leading to a noticeable decline in market growth and profitability [1][6] - Some funds have reduced their holdings in liquor stocks, particularly in well-known brands like Wuliangye and Yanghe, while others, such as E Fund and Huatai-PineBridge, have increased their positions in Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [1][2] Group 2 - The latest data shows that the total market value of the liquor-related funds has changed little despite some reductions in holdings, with the total market value of the top ten holdings in the China Securities Liquor Index Fund decreasing by approximately 2.6 billion [2] - Shanxi Fenjiu has emerged as a significant highlight, with 28 funds making it their top holding, reflecting a shift in investment focus [7] - Fund managers emphasize the importance of cash flow and are looking for companies with strong business models and competitive advantages, indicating a strategic shift in investment logic [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of improvement in April 2025, influenced by external environment changes and market style shifts. The sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand and is seen as a safe haven for funds during market volatility [8][34] - The white wine industry is believed to be at its cyclical bottom, with expectations of a stable upward trend in the future. Key companies recommended for investment include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Ancient Well Wine [8][35] Summary by Sections Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the allocation ratio of food and beverage in the overall market funds decreased from 10.6% in Q4 2024 to 9.8%, marking a new low since 2020. Active equity funds also reduced their allocation to 8.1% from 8.3% [5][14] - The food and beverage sector's market value increased by 0.2% in Q1 2025, ranking 18th out of 31 sectors, while the transaction amount proportion fell to 2.14% [15][21] Fund Holdings - The overall number of shares held by funds in the food and beverage sector decreased in Q1 2025, indicating a general reduction in holdings across major consumer companies [7][27] - The concentration of fund holdings in the white wine sector increased, with active equity funds raising their allocation from 6.46% in Q4 2024 to 6.57% in Q1 2025, while overall market funds decreased their allocation from 9.0% to 8.5% [6][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively positioning in the food and beverage sector due to strengthening domestic demand expectations. Key areas of focus include: - Snacks sector, with companies like Ganyuan Food and Yanjinpuzi being highlighted for their growth potential [8][36] - Beer industry, particularly Qingdao Beer, expected to improve due to low base effects and restaurant recovery [8][36] - Dairy industry, with a focus on Yili Group, benefiting from policy catalysts and expected price stabilization [8][36] - Other companies worth noting include Angel Yeast, Ximai Food, and Bairun Co., which are expected to benefit from cost advantages and new product launches [8][36]

Group 1 - The article provides a ranking of various equity funds managed by different fund managers, highlighting their assets under management and year-to-date performance [1] - Zhang Kun's equity fund leads with an asset size of 60.82 billion and a year-to-date return of 3.49% [1] - Liu Yan Chun's fund has an asset size of 41.02 billion but shows a slight decline of -0.19% year-to-date [1] Group 2 - The top ten funds collectively manage over 2 trillion, indicating a significant concentration of assets in the leading funds [1] - The performance of the funds varies, with some showing positive returns while others have negative year-to-date performance, reflecting market volatility [1] - The data suggests a competitive landscape among fund managers, with varying strategies impacting their performance [1] Group 3 - The article also lists the top holdings of a specific fund as of March 31, 2025, with Tencent Holdings and Alibaba being the largest positions [3] - The total market value of the top holdings amounts to approximately 28.99 billion, representing 78.81% of the fund's total stock value [3] - The report indicates a decrease in holdings for some major stocks, such as Tencent and Alibaba, by -13.79% and -34.01% respectively [3] Group 4 - The geographical distribution of investments shows a significant allocation to China at 45.48%, followed by the United States at 34.00% [7] - This distribution highlights the fund's focus on domestic markets while still maintaining a presence in international markets [7]

一 、库存周期的本质 ： 供需错配的动态平衡 白酒库存周期的本质是 供给刚性与需求弹性的错配 。 供给端的长周期属性 ： 高端白酒 （ 如茅台 、五粮液 ）生产需经历制曲 、发酵 、蒸馏 、陈酿等环节 ，陈酿时间可达 3-5 年 ， 导致产能释放存在明显滞后性13 。这种 " 生产 - 库存 - 销售 " 的长链条使得企业难以快速响应市场需 求变化 ，容易积累库存压力 。例如 ，泸州老窖因 2020 年技改新增 10 万吨产能 ，半成品酒库存从 2018 年的 46.96 亿元增至 2024 年的 123 亿元 。而中低端白酒生产周期较短 （ 如五粮液系列酒基 酒仅需 81 天 ），库存周转相对灵活 ，但受价格敏感型需求波动影响更大 。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 资悟堂 来源：雪球 " 白酒行业的库存周期是生产刚性 、需求弹性 、渠道博弈 、政策调控等多因素共同作用的结果 。当 前行业处于主动去库后期 ，预计 2025 年末逐步进入补库 ，但价格带分化 、集中度提升 、消费分层 等结构性变革将重塑竞争格局 。企业需通过品牌护城河 ...

从一季度业绩表现来看，鹏华碳中和主题A以60.26%的回报率领先，永赢先进制造智选A（52.32%）紧 随其后，两者均聚焦新能源、高端制造等政策利好赛道。相比之下，消费、医疗及部分传统能源主题基 金表现低迷，如兴全趋势投资（-6.31%）、华夏能源革新A（-0.89%）等，或凸显市场对成长性与估值 修复逻辑的分歧。 专题：2025基金一季报：最新持仓曝光！ 2025年一季度收官，A股市场结构性行情凸显，百亿规模以上的权益类基金业绩呈现显著分化。从碳中 和主题的强势领涨，到消费、能源板块的持续承压，基金经理的调仓能力与行业配置策略经受考验。 据Wind数据统计，截至2025年4月21日，权益类基金（包括普通股票型基金、偏股混合型基金、平衡混 合型基金、灵活配置型基金）中，共有28只基金规模达到百亿以上。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | 季度回报 今年以来回报 | 基金规模 | 非金经理 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | × | ళ్ళి | 亿元 | | | 1 | 016530.OF | 删华碳中和主题A | 60.26 ...

一季度 张坤在管基金 的 整体持仓变动不大，主要调整了 消费 和 科技 等行业的结构 。 一方面，对长期持有的白酒企业进行了再平衡，减持了一季度亏损 8%的洋河股份，增持了山西汾酒。 4月22日凌晨，张坤旗下基金披露了2025年一季报。 另一方面，减持在2024年四季度几乎顶格配置的 港股互联网，分别减持腾讯、阿里巴巴 216.5万股和2376.5万股。 此外，张坤所管理的易方达亚洲精选在一季报中还有一大关注点，即对台积电的操作，减持其美股仓位，增加了少许在中国台湾本土上市的台积电股票。 在 3月底披露的 2024年年报中，张坤在谈及"最优秀的企业和企业家也都会遇到困难和问题"时，特别举了台积电创始人张忠谋的例子，台积电的发展经历 了诸多坎坷，但如今的台积电成为了全球市值前十的企业。 伟大是"熬"出来的，投资也是如此，需要的是长期主义。 其实， 从 3月底披露的年报和今天（4月22日）最新披露的一季报来看，张坤少有的用较大篇幅来从宏观视角做了一些解读。 2024年的年报中，张坤大幅谈及过去较为审慎的房地产周期；在一季报中，用大量笔墨对当下经济进行了分析预判。 而在数字、迹象的背后，张坤想要表达的核心观点在于 ...