Market Overview - On January 7, the A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the green, marking a 14-day winning streak [1] - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a slight increase of 0.45% after a morning surge, achieving five consecutive days of gains and attracting over 1.38 billion yuan in net inflow, totaling 3.5 billion yuan over four days [1] Industry Performance - The performance of constituent stocks in the Nonferrous 50 ETF was mixed, with Huayou Cobalt rising over 5%, Northern Rare Earth up over 4%, and Luoyang Molybdenum increasing by 1%. Conversely, Yun Aluminum fell over 3%, and Zijin Mining dropped over 2% [6] Copper Price Forecast - Citigroup updated its copper price forecast, suggesting that the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price could rise to $14,000 per ton within the next three months due to strong market momentum and bullish factors [3] - Factors contributing to this bullish outlook include cross-exchange arbitrage related to the U.S. market, global demand and growth expectations, and constrained copper supply [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side remains frequently disrupted, with Canadian miner Captone announcing a strike at its Manto Verde copper-gold mine in Chile [4] - From a financial perspective, the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weak dollar are expected to support higher copper prices. The supply-demand dynamics indicate a robust demand side, driven by AI and emerging market developments [4][5] Long-term Price Projections - According to CITIC Securities, the LME copper price is projected to gradually rise to $9,800 per ton, $10,600 per ton, $11,200 per ton, and $12,000 per ton from 2025 to 2028, driven by the scarcity of copper resources and increasing demand [5] - The global refined copper demand is expected to grow at an average rate of around 2.5%, with supply gaps widening in the coming years [7] Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a strategic investment vehicle, covering various metal sectors and benefiting from the super cycle in nonferrous metals [9] - The ETF has a high concentration of copper and gold, with copper content at 34% and gold content at 12%, making it a leading option in its category [9] - The ETF's performance has been driven by earnings rather than valuation, with a PE ratio of 26.27, down 52% from five years ago, indicating a favorable valuation environment [14]

Group 1 - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with significant advancements expected in the near future [6][8] - A Finnish startup, Donut Lab, has announced the world's first commercially viable solid-state battery, set to be showcased at CES 2026, which promises to surpass traditional lithium battery technology in energy density, charging speed, and lifespan [8] - The industry consensus is moving towards reducing liquid electrolyte content and increasing solid electrolyte usage, which is seen as a disruptive technology that will drive innovation and competition among global companies [8][9] Group 2 - Companies involved in solid-state battery technology, such as Tianqi Lithium (002460), Enjie (002812), and others, are expected to see significant profit growth, with some projected to double their net profits this year [11][12] - Research indicates that solid-state battery manufacturers will benefit first from the industry's acceleration, with new equipment opening up additional growth opportunities [9] - Key players like Tianqi Materials (002709) and Xiamen Tungsten (厦钨新能) are making strides in solid-state battery materials, with advancements in sulfide electrolytes and oxide-based materials [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth and precious metals sectors are experiencing significant price increases, driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly in the context of China's regulatory measures and global economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 1.88%, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Rare Earth (600259) up 10.00%, Shengtun Mining (600711) up 9.01%, and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) up 7.57% [1]. - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) increased by 2.01%, marking its fifth consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 2.13 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, domestic rare earth supply regulation is expected to smooth out the issuance of quotas, while overseas supply is projected to continue growing as new projects come online [2]. - Demand for rare earths is anticipated to remain strong, particularly from the electric vehicle sector and robotics, further emphasizing the scarcity of resources and potentially driving prices higher [2]. Group 3: Gold and Silver Market Insights - Global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, which supports the ongoing bullish trend in gold prices, especially during periods of interest rate cuts [2]. - Silver ETF holdings are expected to rise significantly by 2025, driven by its financial attributes, which will likely contribute to an increase in silver prices [2]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, due to high - speed consumption growth, lithium carbonate is expected to shift from an oversupply situation to a tight - balance pattern. The smooth release of supply is likely under high - profit conditions, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of consumption [4][55]. - If the consumption end exceeds expectations and the supply end encounters force majeure, the short - term supply - demand may be tight. There is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the first half of next year. If consumption fails to meet expectations, the price may correct and return to the cost - pricing model. If consumption continues to exceed expectations and supply - side production falls short of expectations in the second half of the year, the lithium carbonate price is expected to strengthen further [4][55]. - It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will range from 80,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton in 2026. As the overall industry oversupply narrows, the price center may rise, and the overall fluctuation range remains large [4][55]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of Lithium Carbonate Trends in 2025 - In 2025, lithium carbonate first declined and then rose. Before the mid - year, the price hit a low of 58,000 yuan per ton. After the mid - year, with the "anti - involution" policy and unexpected demand growth, the price accelerated upwards and reached 120,000 yuan per ton at the end of the year [7]. - From March to May, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of production at the Jiaxiaowo Mine, the decline in overseas Australian ore guide costs, and weak consumption led to inventory accumulation and bottom - building of the futures price [7]. - From May to July, under the "anti - involution" background, policies from the State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology drove the futures price out of the bottom [8]. - In mid - and early August, the shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo Mine and the mining license issues of 8 mines in Jiangxi disturbed the market, causing the futures price to soar [8]. - From late August to mid - October, inventory gradually decreased, but high inventory suppressed the price, and trading sentiment faded [8]. - From late October to the end of the year, supply disruptions and a surge in energy - storage demand led to a significant shortage in supply - demand, and the futures price exceeded 120,000 yuan per ton [9]. Chapter 2: Outlook for the Domestic Macroeconomic Situation 2.1 The Beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan: Stabilize Growth and Expand Domestic Demand - In 2026, economic growth will be emphasized more. Policy strength is expected to be between that after September 2024 and that from July 2025 to the present [15]. 2.2 Policy: Fiscal Policy as the Mainstay and Monetary Policy as a Supplement - Fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive", with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of about 5.9 trillion yuan. Special bond quotas are expected to be set at 4.5 - 5 trillion yuan. Fiscal policy will shift from "scale expansion" to "efficiency improvement" [17]. - Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" tone but be more cautious in operation. There will be at least one round of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in 2026, with a reserve - requirement ratio cut of 0.25 - 0.5 percentage points and an interest - rate cut of 10 - 20 BP [17]. 2.3 The Possibility of Spill - over Risks in the Real Estate Market Has Significantly Decreased - In 2025, there were no strong national real - estate policies. The change in policy statements may indicate a shift in policy priorities and a change in risk positioning for the real - estate market [21]. 2.4 The "Anti - Involution" Policy May Enter the Implementation Stage - The "anti - involution" policy may enter the implementation stage in 2026, but the public - opinion enthusiasm may decrease, and policies will have priorities [23]. Chapter 3: Sufficient Production Capacity, and the Rising Lithium Price Center Stimulates Supply Elasticity 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Production Capacity Remains Sufficient - In 2025, the overseas supply structure was significantly differentiated. Global lithium carbonate production - capacity layout is accelerating towards Western Australia, South America, and Africa. By the end of 2025, global lithium carbonate smelting capacity exceeded 2 million tons, with domestic capacity exceeding 1.5 million tons [25][26]. - In 2026, it is expected to be the last peak of this round of production - capacity expansion cycle, with new and upcoming projects having a total capacity of over 160,000 tons. Global lithium resource supply is expected to grow by about 30% [24]. 3.2 Slight Increase in Imports, with Significant Growth in Argentina This Year - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 23,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to October, the import volume was 196,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Imports from Argentina increased significantly [32]. 3.3 The Continuous Growth of Domestic Production Is Mainly Driven by Spodumene - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 54.6%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 776,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.2%. The main driving force for production growth was spodumene [35]. 3.4 The Growth Rate of Lithium Ore Imports Is Slow, while Domestic Ore Production Continues to Increase Significantly - In September 2025, China's lithium concentrate import volume was 521,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38%. From January to September, the import volume was 4.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In October, China's lithium ore production was 20,050 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.2% [37][38]. Chapter 4: Strong Consumption Expectations, Attention to Realization 4.1 Strong Domestic Consumption Demand, with a Faster Energy - Transition Pace than the Global Average - In 2025, China's total lithium carbonate consumption was about 520,000 tons LCE, accounting for 76% of global demand. The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Chengdu - Chongqing Economic Circle were the main consumption areas [41]. - In the domestic lithium carbonate consumption structure in 2025, power batteries accounted for about 74%, and energy - storage accounted for 18%, indicating a faster energy - transition pace than the global average [42]. 4.2 Power Batteries Remain Dominant, and the Proportion of Energy - Storage Continues to Increase - In 2025, in the global lithium carbonate demand structure, power batteries remained dominant, but the proportion of energy - storage and other emerging fields continued to increase. The demand for lithium carbonate from power batteries decreased from 82% in 2023 to 78% in 2025, while the energy - storage proportion increased from 11% to 15% [45]. 4.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate Has Become the Main Source of Growth in Lithium Carbonate Consumption - In 2025, lithium iron phosphate accounted for 82% of the demand in the downstream material structure of lithium carbonate, becoming the main source of growth in lithium carbonate consumption. The demand proportion of ternary materials decreased to 13%, and the combined proportion of lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate was less than 5% [48]. Chapter 5: The Marginal Impact of Cost Reduction Weakens, and the Price Gradually Moves Away from the Bottom - The cost range of lithium carbonate is large. The cost of using salt - lake production is the lowest, at 30,000 - 50,000 yuan per ton. The cash cost of self - owned mine enterprises is 40,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton, and the cost of externally purchased ore is about 60,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The cost of the recycling end is the highest, about 100,000 - 200,000 yuan per ton [50]. - In 2026, the global lithium ore market is still in an oversupply situation, but the degree of oversupply has narrowed. The industry cycle is expected to shift from oversupply to tight - balance, and the price of lithium ore is unlikely to fall to the 2025 low [50]. Chapter 6: Outlook for the Lithium Carbonate Price Trend in 2026 - In 2026, due to high - speed consumption growth, lithium carbonate is expected to shift from an oversupply pattern to a tight - balance pattern. The smooth release of supply is likely under high - profit conditions. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of consumption [4][55]. - If consumption exceeds expectations and supply encounters force majeure, short - term supply - demand may be tight. There is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the first half of the year. If consumption fails to meet expectations, the price may correct. If consumption continues to exceed expectations and supply - side production falls short of expectations in the second half of the year, the price is expected to strengthen [4][55]. - It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will range from 80,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton in 2026, with a rising price center and large fluctuations [4][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - From a fundamental perspective, the lithium carbonate market in 2026 is expected to show a tight - balance pattern with strong supply and demand. The supply side will have a clear division in regions and resource types, with domestic growth led by salt - lake lithium extraction and overseas by ore - based lithium projects. The demand side will be driven by the booming energy - storage market and the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new - energy heavy trucks, along with the stable growth of new - energy vehicle production and sales [2]. - From a technical perspective, given the previous sharp rise and overall bullish market sentiment, the possibility of a rapid and reverse decline in lithium carbonate prices is low. The current price is close to the first important high after the rebound following the decline of lithium carbonate futures, and it may take time to break through this level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Lithium Carbonate Trend Analysis: V - shaped Reversal - In 2025, the lithium carbonate market showed a typical V - shaped trend, divided into a unilateral decline from January to June due to weak industry fundamentals and external policy shocks, and an upward - trending period after late June driven by policies and events [5]. - From January to June, the market was in a state of structural oversupply, with downstream new - energy vehicle growth slowing and energy - storage demand under - performing. Social inventory reached 96,000 tons by the end of April, the highest since 2021. After April, the market accelerated its decline due to the US tariff policy, and prices dropped below the break - even point [6]. - After late June, the market rebounded. In July, the "anti - involution" policy boosted sentiment. From late July to September, supply - side events strengthened the expectation of supply contraction, and prices first rose and then fell. After the National Day, the booming energy - storage demand drove prices above 100,000 yuan/ton, and in early December, a new round of upward trend began [7]. Lithium Carbonate Supply Side Capacity and Production - In 2026, the global new lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to be about 30 - 330,000 tons LCE, with a clear division in regions and resource types. Domestic capacity growth will mainly come from salt - lake lithium extraction, while overseas growth will be mainly from ore - based lithium projects. The actual capacity release depends on the price of lithium carbonate [9]. - In 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production increased strongly, with a cumulative output of 871,200 tons from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The growth was mainly driven by spodumene - based lithium extraction. In 2026, the domestic supply structure is expected to be further optimized, with salt - lake lithium extraction as the key incremental source, but the actual supply release still faces uncertainties [11][12]. Import - At the end of 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports remained stable, with an annual total of about 2.5 million tons. Imports from Argentina increased by 56%, while those from Chile decreased by 17%. In 2026, the import pattern is expected to shift from South - American dominance to diversified supply, with the total import volume expected to be between 2 - 2.5 million tons, but the growth rate may slow [14]. Inventory - Since August 2025, domestic lithium carbonate inventory has been continuously decreasing. In 2026, the market is expected to show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, with a tight balance", and the inventory center is expected to move down further and may show seasonal fluctuations [16]. Demand Side Energy Storage - From January to October 2025, the domestic energy - storage winning - bid capacity reached 148GWh, a year - on - year increase of 39%. In 2026, the energy - storage cell shipment is expected to reach 850GWh, and the annual demand for lithium carbonate in this field is expected to increase by more than 162,000 tons LCE. The global energy - storage demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 30% - 40% in 2026, with China contributing more than 40% [19]. New - energy Vehicles - From January to October 2025, China's new - energy vehicle market grew strongly, with production and sales increasing by more than 30% year - on - year, accounting for 46.7% of the total new - vehicle sales. Exports reached 2.65 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 54%. In 2026, new - energy vehicle production and sales are expected to continue to grow, driving up the demand for lithium carbonate [22][23]. New - energy Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the new - energy heavy - truck market in China grew strongly, with cumulative sales of 1.0423 million vehicles in the first 11 months, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In 2026, the market is expected to enter a stable development stage at a high level, and the penetration rate of new - energy heavy trucks is expected to exceed 30%, even reaching 35% - 40%, which will support the demand for lithium carbonate [24]. Cost Side - As of December 29, the forward spot price of Australian spodumene (5.5% - 6%) was $1680/ton, and the price of lithium - mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) was 1850 yuan/ton, with monthly increases of over 45%. The weighted cost of lithium carbonate is about 82,000 yuan/ton, which further strengthens the bottom support [28][29]. Summary - The environmental rectification and shutdown of Jiangxi's mica mines in 2025 was the key turning point for the lithium carbonate market from oversupply to tight balance. In 2026, the core contradiction in domestic supply lies in the resumption rhythm and intensity of lithium - mica mines in Jiangxi. Meanwhile, the explosive growth of energy - storage demand requires close tracking of policy implementation and actual demand fulfillment [3][30]. - Historically, the probability of price increases in the second half of the year is higher than in the first half. However, the market may show two scenarios in 2026, especially in the first half: either range - bound at the current high level or form a double - top pattern and then enter an adjustment phase. The depth and timing of subsequent corrections depend on the resumption progress of leading manufacturers and the actual fulfillment of energy - storage demand [3][30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's new round of mineral exploration actions is expected to drive up precious metal prices due to continued investment demand [1][5][6] Group 2 - Guosheng Technology announced a stock suspension for verification due to significant stock price fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of 370.20% during the specified period, indicating potential market overheating and irrational speculation risks [2] - The company's latest price-to-book ratio is significantly higher than the industry average, suggesting a bubble in stock prices, while the company remains in a loss-making state with a net profit of -151 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company is also facing uncertainties regarding external investments and high pledge ratios of controlling shareholders [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Natural Resources reported that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, significant progress was made in mineral exploration, with the discovery of 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields, and substantial increases in resources such as uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potassium salt [5][6] - The exploration strategy will continue into 2026, focusing on improving the exploration, development, and reserve capabilities of strategic mineral resources [6] Group 4 - The global prices of non-ferrous metals have been on the rise, with London gold and silver experiencing significant increases of 64.56% and 147.79% respectively in 2025, marking the highest annual growth since 1980 [8] - As of January 6, 2026, non-ferrous metals continued their upward trend, driven by geopolitical risks, supply constraints, and steady demand [9] Group 5 - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen substantial net financing inflows, with a total of 10.97 billion yuan since December 2025, ranking fourth among all industries [10] - Companies such as Zijin Mining and Ganfeng Lithium have reported significant profit increases, with Zijin Mining expecting a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Natural Resources reports significant achievements in China's mineral exploration strategy during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on key mineral types and the discovery of new large oil and gas fields [1] Group 1: Mineral Discovery Achievements - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China discovered 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields, with substantial increases in uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potassium salt resources [1] - The Dadonggou gold mine in Liaoning has a proven resource of 1,444.49 tons [1] Group 2: Future Plans and Regulations - In 2026, China will continue a new round of mineral exploration strategy actions and implement a special rectification for "circle but not explore" practices, cracking down on illegal mining of strategic mineral resources [1] - The 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on improving the coordination of exploration, production, supply, reserve, and sales of strategic mineral resources, enhancing safety risk monitoring and early warning systems [1] Group 3: Market Performance - Since the end of the New Year holiday, the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a significant rise, with the industry index increasing by 6.98% over two trading days [1] - 16 stocks, including Tianli Composite, Hunan Silver, and China Aluminum, have recorded cumulative gains of over 10% [1] - As of December 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry has seen a net financing inflow of 10.97 billion yuan, ranking fourth among all industries [1] - Major companies such as Zijin Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Western Materials, China Uranium, Tianqi Lithium, and Xingye Silver Tin have each received net financing inflows exceeding 500 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant market movement in solid-state battery stocks, driven by the announcement of the world's first commercially viable all-solid-state battery by Finnish startup Donut Lab [1] - Solid-state batteries are expected to revolutionize the electric vehicle industry due to their superior energy density, charging speed, cycle life, and adaptability to extreme environments [1] - Aijian Securities believes that the industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with a high likelihood of using sulfide electrolytes and silicon/lithium metal anodes, which offer better mechanical properties and ionic conductivity [1] Group 2 - According to statistics, several companies have been highlighted in institutional research reports regarding solid-state batteries, including Tianci Materials, Haixi Communications, and Xiamen Tungsten New Energy [2] - Tianci Materials is in the pilot testing stage for sulfide electrolytes, focusing on performance advantages in moisture control and cycle efficiency, with plans to establish a hundred-ton pilot production line by mid-2026 [2] - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy has achieved supply of positive electrode materials for oxide route solid-state batteries and has successfully produced ton-level oxide solid electrolytes [2] Group 3 - Predictions indicate that several solid-state battery concept stocks, such as Enjie Co., Rongbai Technology, and Ganfeng Lithium, are expected to see a significant increase in net profits this year, with some companies projected to double their net profits [3] - Other companies like Tiannai Technology and EVE Energy are also expected to experience net profit growth exceeding 50% [3]

Group 1 - The energy metals sector increased by 4.11% on January 6, with Huayou Cobalt leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up 1.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up 1.4% [1] - Key stocks in the energy metals sector showed significant price increases, with Huayou Cobalt rising by 8.07% to a closing price of 73.49 [1] Group 2 - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 1.878 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.272 billion yuan [2] - Major stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium attracted significant main fund inflows, with Huayou Cobalt receiving 4.43 billion yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a negative trend in several stocks, with notable outflows from Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [3]

Group 1 - Hong Kong lithium mining stocks are showing active performance, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) rising by 4.13% to HKD 55.5 [1] - Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) has increased by 3.04% to HKD 54.3 [1]