Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on strengthening its main brand, Zhou Dasheng, while building a diverse sub-brand matrix to capture market share. Despite the pressure on the gold consumption market, the revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 15.106 billion, 16.698 billion, and 18.421 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.108 billion, 1.237 billion, and 1.377 billion, leading to a projected PE ratio of 13x, 12x, and 10x [2][15]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 138.91 billion, a decrease of 14.73%, and a net profit of 10.10 billion, down 23.25%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 30.83 billion, down 18.79%, and a net profit of 1.55 billion, down 29.69% [4][11]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that the main product, gold jewelry, generated 114.39 billion, accounting for 82.35% of total revenue, while other segments like embedded jewelry and brand usage fees also contributed [5][12]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 20.80% in 2024, up 2.66 percentage points, attributed to a higher proportion of self-operated business and a decrease in low-margin gold products [14]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its multi-brand strategy, with a total of 5,008 stores by the end of 2024, including 4,655 franchise stores and 353 self-operated stores. The focus is on integrating channel resources and optimizing store layouts to strengthen the main brand while promoting sub-brands [15][12]. - The sub-brands include "Zhou Dasheng X National Treasure," which targets high-end channels, "Zhou Dasheng Classic," focusing on cultural heritage, and "Zhuanzhuge," which will launch in the second half of 2024, emphasizing low investment and high returns [15].

Industry Overview - The gold market in China is experiencing increased volatility, with domestic brand gold jewelry prices around 1000 RMB per gram as of May 1 [1][4] - Consumer interest in gold purchases is influenced by cultural practices, particularly the tradition of buying gold jewelry as part of wedding preparations [1] Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are currently purchasing gold jewelry primarily due to wedding needs, with a noticeable decline in gift purchases compared to the Spring Festival [1] - A significant number of consumers are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding gold purchases due to price fluctuations [8] Consumption Data - According to the China Gold Association, the national gold consumption in Q1 2025 was 290.492 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96%. Specifically, gold jewelry consumption fell by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 29.81% increase [8] - Revenue reports from major companies indicate a decline in sales, with China Gold's Q1 revenue at 11.003 billion RMB, down 39.71%, and Lao Feng Xiang's at 17.521 billion RMB, down 31.64% [8] Company Performance - Some companies reported positive performance despite the overall decline; Cai Bai Co. achieved a Q1 revenue of 8.222 billion RMB, up 30.18%, and a net profit of 320 million RMB, up 17.32% [8] - Chao Hong Ji reported a Q1 revenue of 2.252 billion RMB, an increase of 25.36% [8] Market Trends - The younger consumer demographic (post-80s, 90s, and 00s) is increasingly driving demand for gold jewelry, with a focus on innovative designs and high craftsmanship [9] - The World Gold Council indicates a shift in consumer decision-making towards self-value realization, with consumers willing to pay a premium for products that align with personal aesthetics [9]

周大生（002867.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 13.03 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.60/9.97 | | 总市值(亿元) | 142.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 141.97 | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.96 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.90 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 53.6 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 周大生 沪深300 相关研究报告 《经营业绩承压，渠道逆势扩张积蓄 势能—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.1 《二季度终端销售承压，费用投入拖 累业绩表现—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.28 2025Q1 业绩短期承压，关注后续品牌矩阵优化 纺织服饰/饰品 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 受金价上涨影响，公司 2024 ...

纺织服饰/饰品 周大生（002867.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 13.03 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.60/9.97 | | 总市值(亿元) | 142.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 141.97 | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.96 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.90 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 53.6 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 周大生 沪深300 相关研究报告 《经营业绩承压，渠道逆势扩张积蓄 势能—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.1 《二季度终端销售承压，费用投入拖 累业绩表现—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.28 2025Q1 业绩短期承压，关注后续品牌矩阵优化 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 公司发布年报、一季报：2024 ...

Group 1 - Domestic gold jewelry prices continue to decline, with some falling below 1,000 yuan per gram [1] - Multiple gold jewelry brands reported a decrease in the price of 24K gold jewelry, with prices dropping by 13 yuan per gram to 1,009 yuan per gram [1] - Specific brands such as Laomiao and Caibai saw price reductions of 21 yuan per gram to 995 yuan per gram and 10 yuan per gram to 998 yuan per gram, respectively [1][3] Group 2 - The current prices for various brands of 24K gold jewelry are as follows: Zhou Dasheng at 1,009 yuan per gram, Caibai at 998 yuan per gram, and Chao Hongji at 1,022 yuan per gram [3] - TSL and Jin Zun brands are also priced at 1,009 yuan per gram, while Zhou Liufu is at 1,022 yuan per gram [3]

Group 1: Zhou Dasheng - Zhou Dasheng's operations in 2024 and Q1 of this year are impacted by gold price fluctuations, prompting the company to adopt various measures [1] - The company is enhancing research and development of gold and non-gold products, diversifying product offerings, adjusting brand matrix, and advancing retail models and digital transformation [1] - Gross margin improvement is attributed to the increase in self-operated business proportion and product mix optimization, with gold inventory accounting for 70% of total inventory, of which 20% is gold leasing [1] - The "National Treasure" brand will be upgraded to "National Treasure Cultural Collection Gold Products Leader," focusing on comprehensive enhancements in brand, product, and operations [1] - Zhou Dasheng's classic positioning is in the intangible cultural heritage sector, with the "Zhuge Pavilion" adopting a light asset, high gross margin, and high turnover model [1] - 30% of franchise stores are located in first and second-tier cities, while 70% are in third-tier and below cities, with the initial investment in inventory accounting for 90% of store opening costs [1] Group 2: Jin Zai Food - Jin Zai Food reported Q1 2025 revenue of 595 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.27%, with a net profit of 67.55 million [2] - The company is successfully expanding offline channels, with rapid growth in snack specialty channels and stable growth in circulation channels, while online channels have seen a slight decline [2] - The quail egg business is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2024, with the company implementing differentiated, branded, and long-term development strategies, launching the "Seven Doctors" brand and innovative products [2] - Overseas sales revenue reached approximately 34 million, a 90% year-on-year increase, focusing on breakthroughs in the Southeast Asian market with products tailored to local tastes [2] - Growth in the bean products segment is driven by quality upgrades of traditional dried tofu and the introduction of new products like "Zhou Fresh Fresh" short-shelf-life dried tofu and fresh mixed shaking dried tofu [2] - The deep-sea eel fish segment continues to grow rapidly, achieving double-digit growth in Q1, with a focus on core category research and innovation, as well as expanding new channels and blank points [2] - The company aims to enhance quail egg gross margins through supply chain optimization, innovative product launches, increased brand investment, and improved capacity utilization [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to high gold prices, leading to a decline in consumer demand for gold jewelry. However, the company is focusing on brand upgrades and enhancing its product matrix [7]. - The company reported a total revenue of 138.91 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%, with a net profit of 10.10 billion yuan, down 23.25% year-on-year [7]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 26.73 billion yuan, a significant decline of 47.28% year-on-year, primarily due to rising gold prices affecting consumer purchasing behavior [7]. - The company is expanding its self-operated stores and enhancing its brand presence through differentiated store formats, including collaborations with CCTV and new product lines [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected total revenue for 2025 is 15.47 billion yuan, with an expected net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10.4% compared to 2024 [6][9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 19.0% in 2025, down from 20.8% in 2024, indicating a shift in product mix and pricing pressures [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 6.5 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling approximately 7.06 billion yuan [7].

证券研究报告 周大生 (002867 CH) 业绩短期承压，高分红回馈股东 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 零售 | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (人民币百万) | 16,290 | 13,891 | 15,246 | 16,999 | 18,968 | | +/-% | 46.52 | (14.73) | 9.75 | 11.50 | 11.59 | | 归属母公司净利润 (人民币百万) | 1,316 | 1,010 | 1,104 | 1,227 | 1,383 | | +/-% | 20.67 | (23.25) | 9.27 | 11.18 | 12.73 | | EPS (人民币，最新摊薄) | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.12 | 1.26 | | ROE (%) | 20.56 | 15.77 | 17.15 | 18.39 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Maintain Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a revenue decline of 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan in 2024. The gross margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 20.8% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant revenue drop of 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, although the gross margin increased by 10.6 percentage points to 26.2% due to rising gold prices and product/channel optimization [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product and channel structure to enhance performance in 2025, with expected revenue growth of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan and net profit growth of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan [11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan. The dividend payout was 0.95 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.32% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue fell by 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 26.1% to 2.5 billion yuan [2] Channel Performance - **Self-operated Offline**: Revenue grew by 7.8% to 17.44 billion yuan in 2024, with 353 self-operated stores, but Q1 2025 revenue declined by 16.29% to 5.27 billion yuan [3] - **Self-operated Online**: Revenue increased by 11.42% to 27.95 billion yuan in 2024, but saw a decline of 6.71% to 5.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [4] - **Franchise Business**: Revenue dropped by 23.26% to 91.87 billion yuan in 2024, with a further decline of 58.63% to 15.84 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [5] Product Performance - Revenue from gold jewelry and embedded jewelry decreased by 16.62% and 17.36% respectively in 2024, while gross margins were affected by rising gold prices [10] - The company plans to launch new products in 2025 to stimulate demand, focusing on both gold and non-gold categories [10] Financial Projections - The company expects a revenue increase of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 14 times [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to rising gold prices leading to increased store closures among franchisees, but maintains a high dividend policy [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For 2024, the company recorded revenue of 13.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.25% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 2.67 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.3%, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, down 26.1% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), with an annual total dividend of 0.95 yuan per share (tax included), resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 7% [1]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its brand matrix to adapt to current consumer trends and capture market share, with four main brands focusing on different segments [2]. - The main brand "Zhou Dazheng" is improving store profitability through adjustments in store image and product structure [2]. - "Zhou Dazheng Classic" focuses on gold products blending Eastern culture with modern fashion, while "Zhou Dazheng National Treasure" targets high-end channels [2]. - "Zhuanzhuge" is positioned as a light asset, high-margin brand focusing on cultural jewelry products, with over 60 stores opened [2]. Group 3: Revenue Channels and Profitability - In Q1 2025, franchise business revenue was 1.58 billion yuan, down 58.6%, with a revenue share decrease of 16.3 percentage points to 59.3%, attributed to increased store closures [3]. - Offline self-operated and e-commerce channel revenues were 527 million yuan and 534 million yuan, down 16.3% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 26.2%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 9.4%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 12% and 11% to 1.1 billion yuan and 1.23 billion yuan, respectively, and introduced a 2027 forecast of 1.38 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.3%, 11.2%, and 12.7% [4]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is expected to be 14 times, reflecting improved consumer demand in the gold and jewelry sector [4]. - The company is assigned a 2025 PE of 17 times, leading to a target price of 17.2 yuan, up from a previous 14.8 yuan [4].