Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore imports have increased as long - term agreement ores signed by smelters have arrived at ports, and smelters are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees have been reduced, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, smelter profits have shrunk significantly, and some smelters are in the red. Although new production capacities are being released, refined zinc output growth is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, the export window has opened, and it is expected to gradually shift to net exports. On the demand side, the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season effect is weak, the real estate sector is a drag, while the automotive and home appliance sectors show some bright spots due to policy support. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, the market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, the spot premium is low, but domestic inventories are decreasing, and LME inventories are also decreasing with a high spot premium. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small long position [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price difference between the December - January contracts of SHFE zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,066.5 dollars/ton, up 15.5 dollars. The total SHFE zinc open interest is 228,100 lots, up 1,217 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 15,827 lots, up 1,263 lots. SHFE zinc warrants are 69,869 tons, up 601 tons. The SHFE inventory is 100,208 tons (weekly), down 3,208 tons, and the LME inventory is 34,900 tons, up 800 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,420 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 152.26 dollars/ton, up 47.51 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,330 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons (monthly), down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons (monthly), up 17,700 tons. The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons (monthly), up 21,400 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons (monthly), up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons (monthly), up 38,100 tons [3]. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons (monthly), down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons (monthly), up 2,166.92 tons. Zinc social inventories are 161,800 tons (weekly), down 400 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.19% (daily), down 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.2% (daily), down 0.45 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.37% (daily), down 0.15 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.01% (daily), down 0.31 percentage points [3]. Industry News - In October, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the 6th consecutive month. PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% month - on - month increase in October, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollar terms, while imports increased 1% year - on - year. China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, and new - energy vehicle retail sales increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term tin prices are expected to be strong at high levels. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 286,560 yuan/ton, up 3,050 yuan; the closing price of the December - January contract for Shanghai tin is - 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,820 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 34,257 lots, up 4,167 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 671 lots, up 423 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,035 tons, up 60 tons. The SHFE inventory of tin is 5,992 tons, up 73 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 5,694 tons, down 109 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,800 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 286,370 yuan/ton, up 2,160 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 760 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan, and the processing fee is 0.87 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 275,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin concentrates by Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 197,600 tons, up 31,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In China, in October, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and the influence of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year with the increase for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased 1% year - on - year. The retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in China in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3]. 3.7 View Summary - The first batch of restarted mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are in the production ramp - up period. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is limited. The supply from Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season. The export of refined tin from Indonesia is planned to be accelerated in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains low; the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate is low, limiting the production of refined tin. In the demand side, the tin price has been oscillating recently. The downstream in the spot market mainly purchases at low prices, mostly for small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [3].

支撑。当前多空交织，短期暂且观望。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13580 | 0 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19865 | 15 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -115201 | -1940 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -20 | 71 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 570172 | -6107 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 24967 | -75 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 3294 | 281 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 19 | 13 | | 现货市场 | | 14844 | -15 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20520 | 0 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) -109 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. After the adjustment of the load of East China olefin enterprises, the overall olefin industry's start - up continued to decline last week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2130 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 1405588 lots, an increase of 14769 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 259592 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10790, a decrease of 124 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference was 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the Chinese main port was 243 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 273 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia was - 79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.32 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.15 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 49.56 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 8.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 386400 tons, an increase of 10300 tons. The start - up rate of methanol enterprises was 87.79%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde was 41.75%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether was 5.79%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the start - up rate of acetic acid was 69.61%, a decrease of 3.86 percentage points; the start - up rate of MTBE was 68.55%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points; the start - up rate of olefins was 89.98%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin was - 623 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton [2] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.43%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.92%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.12%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points [2] 7. Industry News - As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 38.64 tons, an increase of 1.04 tons month - on - month, a rise of 2.75%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 22.11 tons, an increase of 0.55 tons month - on - month, a rise of 2.57%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.71 tons, an increase of 1.06 tons. The inventory at East China ports increased by 2.42 tons, while the inventory at South China ports decreased by 1.36 tons. Recently, the production capacity loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was less than the output of the restored production capacity, and the overall output increased [2] 8. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The current freight rate market is greatly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more intensely. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1778.200, down 33.3; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1604.9, up 17.70 [1] - EC2512 - EC2602 spread: 173.30, down 46.70; EC2512 - EC2604 spread: 612.10, down 35.30 [1] - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1504.80, up 296.09; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 1327.91, up 62.56 [1] - SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 1058.17, up 36.78; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1366.85, up 43.04 [1] - Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 2104.00, down 41.00; Panama - type Freight Index (daily): 1833.00, down 16.00 [1] - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 17564.00, unchanged; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 28850.00, up 2368.00 [1] Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs announced to suspend the implementation of multiple export control measures from November 10, 2025, to November 10, 2026, covering super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, lithium batteries, etc. Also, since November 10, the soybean export qualification of 3 US enterprises to China has been restored, and the import of US logs has resumed [1] - US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer proposed a new plan to end the government shutdown, but the Republicans rejected it, though the exchange of proposals is seen as a sign of a possible loosening of the negotiation deadlock [1] - Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the Fed should be more cautious in future policy actions. New York Fed President Williams said the Fed may need to expand its balance sheet by buying bonds, and St. Louis Fed President Musalem expects 50 - 75 basis points of policy adjustment space [1] Market Analysis - On Monday, the prices of the container shipping index (European Line) futures showed differentiation. The main contract EC2512 fell 1.81%, and the far - month contracts had varying declines [1] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index rose 24.5% week - on - week, which is expected to support the recovery of freight rates. However, China's manufacturing PMI in October dropped seasonally, and the new export order index declined significantly, indicating a weak foundation for the recovery of terminal transport demand [1] - Mainstream shipping companies issued price - increase notices in November, but the price increase in late November has basically failed, and the consistency of shipping companies' price - increase efforts has differentiated [1] - The Middle East situation, especially the Israel - Palestine conflict, is in a delicate and unstable stage, delaying the expectation of Red Sea resumption of navigation. Germany's new government's proposed fiscal expansion policy may boost investors' confidence in the medium - term growth of the eurozone if more details are released [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The RB2601 contract rebounded with reduced positions on Monday. The U.S. Trade Representative's Office announced the suspension of 301 investigation - related measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries starting from November 10th. The weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 45.72%, remaining at a low level. Terminal demand declined, but inventories have decreased for four consecutive weeks. Overall, the macro - level released positive signals, market investment sentiment improved, and the reduction of short positions in mainstream holdings supported the rebound of futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The recommended operation is to go long on pullbacks with a stop - loss reference of 3000 and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,044.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; RB main contract open interest: 1,923,733 lots, down 37,153 lots; RB contract top 20 net open interest: - 53,077 lots, up 48,936 lots; RB1 - 5 contract spread: - 58 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 128,592 tons, down 9,143 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 208 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,230.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,313 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,200.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; RB main contract basis: 186.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 70.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 771.00 yuan/wet ton, down 2 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,640.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded): 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 148.9481 million tons, up 3.5557 million tons; Sample coking plant coke inventory: 361,500 tons, down 12,900 tons; Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.2656 million tons, down 23,200 tons; Tangshan billet inventory: 1.2 million tons, up 4,300 tons; 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.15%, up 1.42 percentage points; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 87.79%, down 0.80 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Sample steel mills' rebar output: 2.0854 million tons, down 40,500 tons; Sample steel mills' rebar capacity utilization rate: 45.72%, down 0.88 percentage points; Sample steel mills' rebar inventory: 1.6684 million tons, down 48,700 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 4.257 million tons, down 51,100 tons; Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 67.71%, unchanged; Domestic crude steel output: 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; China's rebar monthly output: 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons; Steel net export volume: 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 92.78, down 0.27; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: - 0.50%, down 1.00 percentage points; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 13.90%, down 1.00 percentage points; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment: 1.10%, down 0.90 percentage points; Cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters; Commercial housing unsold area: 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. Industry News - In October 2025, 822 projects started across the country with a total investment of about 494.812 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment are Fujian, Guangxi, and Guangdong, with total investments of 136.944 billion yuan, 82.1 billion yuan, and 71.7 billion yuan respectively. On November 9th local time, the U.S. Trade Representative's Office announced the suspension of 301 investigation - related measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year, starting from 12:01 am on November 10th, Eastern Time [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand pattern in the pig industry remains loose, which restricts price movements. When prices fall further, the supply - demand game may intensify, causing price fluctuations. Prices are expected to adjust weakly at a low level. Supply - side: Scale farms are expected to resume slaughter to meet annual targets, while some small - scale farmers may hold back sales due to price drops. Second - fattening participants are cautious. Demand - side: Temperature fluctuations led to a decline in the slaughterhouse's operating rate last week, indicating limited improvement in terminal demand [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,955 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the position of the main contract is 130,519 lots, down 5,241 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 90 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 38,588 lots, down 2,091 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices vary by region: 12,000 yuan/ton in Henan Zhumadian (unchanged), 11,900 yuan/ton in Jilin Siping (down 200 yuan), 12,500 yuan/ton in Guangdong Yunfu (up 200 yuan). The main base of live pigs is 45 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 436.8 million heads, up 12.33 million; the inventory of breeding sows is 40.35 million heads, down 30,000 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The month - on - month CPI growth rate is 0.2%, up 0.5 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the corn spot price is 2,243.33 yuan/ton, up 4.8 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 901.09, up 4.84. The monthly feed output is 31.287 million tons, up 2.015 million tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,515 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit for purchasing piglets is - 175.54 yuan/head, up 4.18 yuan; for self - breeding and self - raising is - 89.21 yuan/head, up 0.12 yuan. The monthly pork import volume is 80,000 tons, unchanged. The average price of white - striped chicken in the main production area is 13.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 35.84 million heads, up 2.34 million; the monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 450.86 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Mysteel data shows that in October 2025, the national pig feed sales increased by 1.87% month - on - month and 11.07% year - on - year. Piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 2.46% year - on - year; finishing pig feed increased by 2.46% month - on - month and 15.43% year - on - year. According to Shanghai Ganglian, on November 10, 2025, the daily national pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 290,903 heads, 1.28% lower than Friday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea production continues to increase this week following the previous cycle's equipment changes [2] - The compound fertilizer's operating rate has rebounded due to improved sales, but it is expected to decline steadily or slightly considering new orders [2] - Urea enterprise inventory increased slightly last week, and with weak agricultural demand and moderate industrial and reserve demand, some enterprises maintain a weak balance between production and sales, while inventory may continue to accumulate in the short - term [2] - The U2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1640 - 1690 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1660 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 72 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The main contract's open interest is 257,574 lots, down 11,014 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 31,413 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts are 6415 sheets, up 1830 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei remained unchanged at 1590 yuan/ton, while those in Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui increased by 30, 10, 20, and 20 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The main contract's basis is - 40 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2] - FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 357.5 and 385 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 and 7.5 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 7.9 million tons, down 3.1 million tons; enterprise inventory is 1.5781 billion tons, up 23.8 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.71%, up 2.39%; the daily output is 183,500 tons, down 4400 tons [2] - Urea exports are 1.37 million tons, up 57%; the monthly output is 5.73867 million tons, down 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.04%, unchanged; the melamine operating rate is 53.2%, up 3.22% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 83 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 165 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27,000 tons, up 1600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 5, enterprise inventory was 1.5781 billion tons, up 23.8 million tons week - on - week, a 1.53% increase [2] - As of November 6, port inventory was 7.9 million tons, down 3.1 million tons week - on - week, a 28.18% decrease [2] - As of November 6, production was 1.3545 billion tons, up 39.2 million tons week - on - week, a 2.98% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 82.71%, up 2.39% [2] 3.6 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 10, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1265.5, down 1.02%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. With the continuous implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, the PPI recorded its first monthly increase since November last year, and the year-on-year decline was the smallest in over a year. Fundamentally, the mine's operating rate has declined for three consecutive weeks due to safety inspections. The inventory is at a moderate level, and the mid - and downstream are replenishing stocks, with the total inventory showing a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range volatile operation [2]. - On November 10, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1743.5, down 1.19%. The third round of price increases for coke in the spot market has been implemented. Recently, Pingjiang County, Yueyang, Hunan Province, introduced new regulations and became the first county in Hunan to fully implement the ready - to - move housing sales system. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the pig iron output continued its seasonal decline this period, with the pig iron output at 234.22 (-2.14) million tons, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country this period was -22 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1265.50 yuan/ton, down 4.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1743.50 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 956759.00 lots, down 46.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 48341.00 lots, down 82.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts: -78574.00 lots, down 7647.00 lots; Net position of the top 20 coke contracts: -5072.00 lots, down 376.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 37.50 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread: 133.00 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 100.00 sheets, down 300.00 sheets; Coke warehouse receipts: 2070.00 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian 5 raw coal: 1161.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1830.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 160.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1710.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1860.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 86.50 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 344.50 yuan/ton, up 4.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 27.50 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; The clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 295.00 million tons, up 10.60 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.38%, up 0.01%; Raw coal output: 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4173.70 million tons, down 426.30 million tons; The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 186.30 million tons, down 4.00 million tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports: 527.38 million tons, up 13.49 million tons; The inventory of coke at 18 ports: 262.51 million tons, down 7.39 million tons [2]. National Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 1070.02 million tons, up 17.32 million tons; The inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 58.30 million tons, down 1.57 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills: 787.30 million tons, down 9.02 million tons; The coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 626.64 million tons, down 2.41 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.84 days, down 0.12 days; The available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills: 11.07 days, down 0.50 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14 million tons; Coke and semi - coke exports: 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06 million tons; The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 72.31%, down 1.13% [2]. - The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants: -22.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; Coke output: 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 million tons [2]. National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.15%, up 1.42%; The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 87.79%, down 0.80% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84 million tons [2]. Industry News - In October, China's CPI exceeded market expectations and reached a nine - month high year - on - year due to the rise in non - food prices. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices had the largest year - on - year increase in 20 months. Under the continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the PPI recorded its first monthly increase since November last year, and the year - on - year decline was the smallest in over a year [2]. - In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food prices increased by 0.3%. Year - on - year, pork prices decreased by 16.0%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.23 percentage points. PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [2]. - At the end of 2024, the National Housing and Urban - Rural Construction Work Conference clearly listed "effectively and orderly promoting the ready - to - move housing sales" as one of the key tasks of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development in 2025. Recently, Pingjiang County, Yueyang, Hunan Province, introduced new regulations and became the first county in Hunan to fully implement the ready - to - move housing sales system [2]. - Iran's Energy Minister said that due to climate drought and aging water supply facilities, Iran is facing a water shortage problem. Tehran, the capital, will implement night - time water restrictions. Due to damage to some water pipelines in the conflict with Israel in June, the government is controlling leakage by reducing the water pressure in the pipeline network [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall market lacks significant driving factors, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the import data for October [2]. - The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar is still evident, but as the current crushing season nears its end, exports are expected to decline seasonally. With strong expected production increases in India and Thailand, the rebound of raw sugar prices is weak. The domestic market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas and policies. Guangxi sugar mills are mainly focused on inventory reduction, and the new crushing season is mostly expected to start in mid - to late November, with a possible delay, which provides some sales opportunities for old sugar [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,475 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 373,243 lots, an increase of 1,282 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,663, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 56,451 lots, an increase of 2,007 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,305, a decrease of 281. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,967 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 4,023 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,022 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,650 yuan/ton, in Nanning is 5,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 1,116.21 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 835.09 million tons, a decrease of 12.86 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of sugar is - 280,000 tons, and the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,560 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 1,504 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 505 yuan/ton, and for Thai sugar is 432 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.5%, an increase of 0.07%, and that of at - the - money put options is 7.51%, an increase of 0.01%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.34%, a decrease of 0.2%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.82%, a decrease of 0.15% [2]. Industry News - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending November 5, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 81, down from 86 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.0598 billion tons, up from 2.9933 billion tons the previous week. Three sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, one more than the same period last year. Brazil exported 420.5 million tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 13%. Since the 2025/26 crushing season (April - March of the following year) until October 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 21.9568 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.27% [2].