| 证券代码：002961 | 证券简称：瑞达期货 | 公告编号：2026-006 | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码：128116 | 债券简称：瑞达转债 | | 瑞达期货股份有限公司 关于提前赎回"瑞达转债"实施暨即将停止交易的重要提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1、最后交易日：2026 年 1 月 13 日 2026 年 1 月 13 日是"瑞达转债"最后一个交易日，当日"瑞达转债"简称 为"Z 达转债"；2026 年 1 月 13 日收市后"瑞达转债"将停止交易。 2、最后转股日：2026 年 1 月 16 日 2026 年 1 月 16 日是"瑞达转债"最后一个转股日，当日收市前，持有"瑞 达转债"的投资者仍可进行转股；2026 年 1 月 16 日收市后，未转股的"瑞达转 债"将停止转股。 3、截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日收市后，距离"瑞达转债"停止交易仅剩 2 个交 易日，距离"瑞达转债"停止转股并赎回仅剩 5 个交易日。特提醒"瑞达转债" 持有人务必仔细阅读本公告，充分了解 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures varied. The main contract EC2602 closed down 5.4%, and the far - month contracts had declines ranging from 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1795.83, up 53.19 points from last week, a 3.1% increase. The spot freight rate quotations of leading shipping companies have loosened, and the geopolitical situation may improve, causing the freight rate to drop significantly. The actual implementation of the shipping companies' price increase announcements needs further attention. In addition, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the boost effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. It is recommended that investors be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][35][36] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract price of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased this week. The EC2602 contract's trading volume and open interest both declined [11][13] - The specific price changes of each contract are shown as follows: EC2602 had a weekly decline of 5.40%, a weekly drop of 98.70, and a closing price of 1729.80; EC2604 had a decline of 1.94%, a drop of 22.70, and a closing price of 1144.50; EC2606 had an increase of 4.04%, a rise of 55.40, and a closing price of 1425.80; EC2608 had an increase of 1.95%, a rise of 29.20, and a closing price of 1525.70; EC2610 had an increase of 3.99%, a rise of 42.30, and a closing price of 1102.20; EC2612 had an increase of 4.11%, a rise of 53.50, and a closing price of 1354.00. The SCFIS index had a weekly increase of 3.10, a rise of 53.19, and a closing price of 1795.83 [9] 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Ukraine's President Zelensky said during a visit to Cyprus that the negotiations with US and European partners have reached a new level, and the conflict with Russia is expected to end in the first half of 2026, which is a bearish factor [16] - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that the Iranian armed forces are on high alert, a neutral - bullish factor [16] - China decided to ban the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users and for military purposes, a neutral - bearish factor [16] - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, which is a neutral factor [16] 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts both contracted this week [23] - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European line capacity increased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined this week, and the freight rates fluctuated slightly [27] - The charter price of Panamax ships decreased this week, and the spread between the offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar converged [30] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures varied this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 5.4%, and the far - month contracts had declines of 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rose 3.1% week - on - week. The spot freight rate quotations of leading shipping companies have loosened, the geopolitical situation may improve, the support for the futures price has weakened, and the freight rate has dropped significantly. The actual implementation of the shipping companies' price increase announcements needs further attention. China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data in a timely manner [6][35][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement expectation of China - Canada trade relations is rising, which drags down the prices of rapeseed - related futures. The rapeseed - related market shows different supply - demand situations, with both short - term support and long - term supply pressure [7][9]. - The rapeseed market is affected by factors such as the supply of the United States and Brazil, and the import situation of Canada and Australia. The rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal markets follow the trend of soybean - related products to some extent [7][9]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9042 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed is relatively loose, which restricts the price. The expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations supports the Canadian rapeseed market. In Indonesia, there may be a reduction in oil palm plantations and a possible increase in palm oil export tax, which is beneficial for palm oil prices, but the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory limits the increase. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a destocking mode, supporting the price and keeping the basis at a high level. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure [7]. 3.1.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Performance**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2338 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [9]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: During the US soybean export season, the supply is abundant, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US soybean market is under pressure. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is still restricted in the near term, and oil mills are shut down, leading to a tight supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure. Meanwhile, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total open interest of 245,121 lots, an increase of 45,683 lots compared with last week [14]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total open interest of 809,345 lots, an increase of 177,875 lots compared with last week [14]. 3.2.2 Top 20 Net Positions - The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures this week were - 10,917, compared with - 23,985 last week, with a decrease in net short positions [20]. - The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures this week were - 107,343, compared with - 40,144 last week, with an increase in net short positions [20]. 3.2.3 Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 2042 lots [26]. - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal were 84 lots [26]. 3.2.4 Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9770 yuan/ton, slightly rising compared with last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 728 yuan/ton [32]. - The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was reported at 2460 yuan/ton, basically unchanged compared with last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price of rapeseed meal was + 122 yuan/ton [38]. 3.2.5 Futures Inter - month Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was reported at + 21 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [44]. - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was reported at - 60 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [44]. 3.2.6 Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.867; the ratio of the average spot price was 3.87 [47]. 3.2.7 Price Spreads between Rapeseed Oil and Soybean Oil/Palm Oil - The spread between the 05 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1048 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed slightly this week [57]. - The spread between the 05 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil was 360 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed slightly this week [57]. 3.2.8 Price Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The spread between the 05 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 448 yuan/ton [63]. - As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was reported at 710 yuan/ton [63]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 60,000 tons, the same as last week, and 722,000 tons in the same period last year. The five - week average was 61,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 60,000 tons, 125,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively [67]. - **Import Pressing Profit**: As of January 8, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1293 yuan/ton [71]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 1st week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0.0 tons, the same as last week, with an operating rate of 0.0% [75]. - **Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 0.20 million tons, a decrease of 70.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72%, and 0 tons in the previous month [79]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 323,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23%. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 15.00%, and an increase of 30,000 tons compared with the previous month [83]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was reported at 4.276 million tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry were reported at 605.7 billion yuan [87]. - **Demand - Side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% [91]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Inventory**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 0.0 tons, the same as last week, with a flat month - on - month change [95]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume**: In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96%, and a month - on - month decrease of 5900 tons compared with the previous month [99]. - **Demand - Side Feed Output**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was reported at 2.9779 million tons [103]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of January 9, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed down this week. The corresponding option implied volatility was 25.54%, a rebound of 8.85% compared with 16.69% last week, and it was at a relatively high level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the precious metals market fluctuated widely. Silver price volatility intensified significantly, gold price stabilized and rebounded, and the gold - silver ratio rose. Geopolitical risks in Latin America boosted the safe - haven property of gold. US labor market data showed differentiation, but the service sector PMI was unexpectedly strong. If the Venezuela situation does not cool down quickly next week, non - farm payrolls are weak, and Fed officials signal rate cuts, the precious metals price center may remain high. In the medium - term, the bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short - term correction risks should be watched out for. The recommended trading ranges for next week are 4300 - 4500 dollars per ounce for London gold and 70 - 85 dollars per ounce for London silver [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - This week, the precious metals market was affected by long - position profit - taking and fluctuations in Fed rate - cut expectations. The US taking tough action against Venezuela strengthened global geopolitical risk concerns. US initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 last week, still at a historically low level. In October, the US trade deficit narrowed by 39% month - on - month. US labor market data was divided, with ADP private employment and JOLTS job openings weaker than expected, but the ISM services index in December unexpectedly rebounded. Looking ahead to next week, if the Venezuela situation persists, non - farm payrolls are poor, and Fed officials hint at rate cuts, precious metals prices may remain high, but short - term correction risks due to concentrated long - position liquidation should be noted. In the medium - to - long - term, a dip - buying strategy is recommended [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - This week, the precious metals market continued to oscillate strongly at a high level. As of January 9, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2604 rose 9.70% week - on - week, and the Shanghai gold main contract 2602 rose 2.96% week - on - week. This week, the net positions of foreign gold and silver ETFs had slight outflows. As of January 8, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.32% month - on - month, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1.40% month - on - month. As of December 30, 2025, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both decreased. This week, the basis of gold and silver strengthened. As of January 8, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 0.46 yuan per gram, with a basis ratio of 0.05%; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 970 yuan per kilogram, with a basis ratio of 5.26%. This week, the gold inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges increased, while silver inventories decreased [6][10][11] 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - As of November 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand increased. China's silver import volume was 263,505.88 kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 9.90%, and the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 180,915,984 kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 21.23%. Due to the growth in silver demand for semiconductors, the output of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to stabilize. As of November 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,390,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.6% [32][36][38] 3.3.2 Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand was in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 4%; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 22%; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The silver supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, the total silver supply was 1,015.1 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 2%; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, a month - on - month decrease of 26% [44][48][50] 3.3.3 Gold Supply and Demand - According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, and a total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [54] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield stabilized and rebounded. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility increased. The US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly. In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy gold, about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons respectively [58][62][66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose significantly this week, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up over 9%. The four stock index futures also increased, with small and mid-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market had a good start in the first trading week of 2026. Market trading activity rebounded significantly compared to last week, and northbound capital trading became active again. [5][87] - Overseas, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was lower than expected, and the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in December hit a 17 - month low. Domestically, in December, both CPI and PPI increased, with the year - on - year increase of CPI expanding and the month - on - month change turning from decline to increase, and the decline of PPI narrowing. The three official PMI indices announced before the holiday rebounded from below the boom - bust line to the expansion range. Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. [87] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2603 | 3.13 | 0.71 | 4743.8 | | | IH2603 | 3.63 | 0.62 | 3134.8 | | | IC2603 | 9.17 | 2.99 | 8037.8 | | | IM2603 | 8.23 | 3.07 | 8048.4 | | Spot | CSI 300 | 2.79 | 0.45 | 4758.92 | | | SSE 50 | 3.40 | 0.39 | 3134.32 | | | CSI 500 | 7.92 | 2.05 | 8056.69 | | | CSI 1000 | 7.03 | 1.98 | 8129.18 | [8] 3.2. News Overview - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and hitting a new low since October 2024. The ISM services PMI index rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest since October 2024. [11] - ADP data showed that private - sector employment in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. The number of JOLTS job openings in the US in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the expected 7.6 million, hitting a new low since September 2024. The number of layoffs in December was 35,553, a 17 - month low. [11] - On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year (previous value: 0.7%) and 0.2% month - on - month (previous value: - 0.1%); PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.2%) and increased by 0.2% month - on - month (previous value: 0.1%). [11] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.82% weekly, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 9.80%, the SME 100 Index rose 4.94%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.89%. [14] - **Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 0.92%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.94%, the Nikkei 225 rose 3.18%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 0.41%. [15] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors rose, with the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors strengthening significantly. Only the banking sector fell. [19] - **Industry Sector Main Capital Flow**: Main capital in most industries showed a net outflow, with significant net outflows in the electronics, power equipment, and communication sectors. [22] - **SHIBOR Short - Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates rose and then fell, and capital prices remained at a low level. [27] - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 11.98 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 164.993 billion yuan. Northbound capital had a total trading volume of 1266.11 billion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened. [30][38] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - A - share major indices and the four stock index futures rose this week, and small and mid - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. The economic climate has returned to the expansion range, and inflation recovery has a positive impact on the stock market at the macro - level. [87] - The US labor market is showing a mild recovery, pushing up the US dollar exchange rate. However, due to the settlement needs of export enterprises and the expectation of economic recovery, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel, and the exchange rate remains strong, supporting the expectation of loose monetary policy in the first quarter. [87] - Since the Spring Festival this year is relatively late, the market has begun to trade the policy expectations of the Two Sessions to be held in early March in advance, and the spring market of A - shares is significantly advanced. [87]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The geopolitical risk from the US's tough action against Venezuela boosts the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, but the trading sentiment of the platinum and palladium market weakens due to concentrated long - position reduction. The Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion provides bottom support for the precious metals market [7]. - The supply shortage of platinum persists due to long - term structural constraints in major producing areas, and the industrial demand remains resilient, especially in the automotive industry. In contrast, the demand for palladium is expected to weaken as it is over - concentrated in the automotive catalyst field and affected by the popularization of new - energy vehicles. The market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. In the short term, the US - Venezuela situation may support platinum and palladium prices, while in the long term, the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend is likely to continue [7]. - The operating ranges are: for London platinum, the upper resistance is $2500 per ounce and the lower support is $1900 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is $1900 per ounce and the lower support is $1500 per ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The US - Venezuela situation boosts the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, but trading sentiment weakens due to long - position reduction. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion provides support [7]. - Platinum supply shortage persists due to structural issues in major producing areas, and industrial demand is resilient. Palladium demand is expected to weaken as the market shifts to surplus, but the bullish sentiment from rate - cut expectations may support prices [7]. - In the short term, the US - Venezuela situation may support prices; in the long term, the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend is likely [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The platinum and palladium markets rebounded this week, showing a volatile and upward trend [8]. - As of January 9, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main contract 2606 was at 499.05 yuan/gram, up 17.37% week - on - week; the platinum main contract 2606 was at 599.80 yuan/gram, up 13.76% week - on - week [10]. - NYMEX platinum and palladium long - position net holdings differ significantly, with palladium showing a net outflow. As of December 30, 2025, NYMEX platinum long - position net holdings were 23,636 contracts, down 6.95% month - on - month; palladium long - position net holdings were - 1546 contracts, up 5.21% month - on - month [11][15]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts weakened [16]. - As of January 8, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 625,014.69 ounces, down 4.26% month - on - month; palladium inventory was 211,305.82 ounces, up 0.61% month - on - month [24]. - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold significantly increased at the beginning of 2025 [25]. - The rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices rises [27]. - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally [31]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - As of November 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum decreased [35]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally [40]. - The total global demand for platinum and palladium shows a moderate downward trend, and the global supply of platinum and palladium declines [45][50]. 3.4 Macroeconomics and Options - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded steadily [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures oscillated and closed higher this week, with the main 2603 contract closing at 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn is entering the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions support its price. In China, the corn purchase in the Northeast has exceeded half, reserve and imported corn supplies are increasing, and farmers are still reluctant to sell. Feed and deep - processing enterprises' inventories are rising, and low inventories at ports and downstream enterprises support the price. However, the driving force for continuous increase needs further observation, so it's advisable to wait and see [6]. - Dalian corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher, with the main 2603 contract closing at 2535 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of January 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was at a high level, indicating supply pressure. But some downstream customers are repurchasing corn starch due to the large increase in tapioca starch price, so it's necessary to pay attention to the pre - Spring Festival stocking. Affected by the rise in corn price, starch prices followed suit, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Zhoudu Yaodian Xiaojie (Weekly Key Points Summary) Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure, but good exports support the price. In China, as of December 29, 1.17 billion tons of corn had been purchased in the Northeast. After New Year's Day, reserve and imported corn supplies increased, farmers were reluctant to sell, deep - processing enterprises' inventories rose, and feed enterprises maintained rigid procurement. Low inventories at ports and downstream enterprises support the price, but the driving force for continuous increase needs observation [6]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2535 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: As of January 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 1.125 million tons, up 0.20 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14%. High inventory means supply pressure, but some downstream customers are turning back to corn starch due to tapioca starch price increase. Pay attention to pre - Spring Festival stocking [8]. 2. Qixian Shichang Qingkuang (Futures and Spot Market Situation) Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 1,049,843 lots, up 40,582 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 197,160 lots, up 1,671 lots from last week [14]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 146,474, compared with - 168,889 last week, indicating a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 40,680, compared with - 31,610 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [20]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 36,555 lots, and those of corn starch were 12,477 lots [26]. Spot Price and Basis - As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2351.37 yuan/ton. The basis between the active 3 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 88 yuan/ton [31]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton in Shandong, remaining stable this week. The basis between the 3 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 165 yuan/ton [35]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 9 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 43 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [41]. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contracts of starch and corn was 272 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 424 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from last week [48]. Substitute Spread - As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2511.44 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2351.37 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 160.07 yuan/ton. In the second week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 626 yuan/ton, narrowing 35 yuan/ton from last week [55]. 3. Chan Ye Qingkuang (Industrial Chain Situation) Corn Supply Side - As of January 2, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, up 93,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 294,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 1.538 million tons, down 75,000 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 593,000 tons, down 74,000 tons week - on - week [45]. - As of January 8, the overall corn selling progress was 48%, up 4% from last week and 3% from the same period last year. Different provinces showed varying progress [57]. - In November 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons (86.67%) from the same period last year and 200,000 tons from the previous month [61]. - As of January 8, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.10 days, up 0.18 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [65]. Demand Side - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, up 9.86 million (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million, down 450,000 (1.12%) month - on - month [69]. - As of January 2, 2026, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 34.59 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 48.35 yuan/head [73]. - As of January 8, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 49 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 510 yuan/ton in Henan, - 826 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 289 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [78]. Corn Starch Supply Side - As of January 7, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.54 million tons, with an increase of 1.32% [82]. - From January 1 - 7, 2026, the national corn processing volume was 627,900 tons, down 3,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 324,800 tons, down 2,700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 59.37%, down 0.49% from last week. As of January 7, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.125 million tons, up 2,000 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14% [86]. 4. Qiquan Shichang Fenxi (Option Market Analysis) - As of January 9, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated and rose, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 12.23%, up 0.91% from 11.32% last week. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a volatile and upward trend this week, with a gain of +17.69% and an amplitude of 21.15%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton [7]. - The lithium carbonate market fundamentals may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and cautious demand, with industrial inventory basically unchanged from last week and the inventory reduction rate slowing down. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading and pay attention to controlling risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate main contract was volatile and slightly stronger on the weekly line, with a gain of +17.69% and an amplitude of 21.15%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton [7]. - **Macro Aspect**: Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to implement a green consumption promotion campaign, with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects, supporting consumers to purchase new - energy vehicles [7]. - **Fundamentals - Raw Material End**: Lithium ore prices have been rising with the continuous increase in lithium carbonate prices. Due to the relatively favorable lithium carbonate futures price, there may be a certain hedging space, which has improved the raw material trading situation [7]. - **Supply End**: Due to the existence of hedging space in the futures market, smelters may maintain a relatively active production state after participation, and the domestic supply has shown a slight upward trend [7]. - **Demand End**: Downstream battery cathode material manufacturers generally have a low acceptance of the current high - price lithium, and their procurement strategies are mainly based on rigid - demand purchases. Therefore, the market sentiment remains cautious [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 143,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21,840 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 4,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 140,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21,500 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 3,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 340 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,600 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 140 US dollars/ton. As of the latest data this week, the US dollar - to - RMB spot exchange rate was 6.9807, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13% [22]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of lithiophilite was 16,075 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,050 yuan/ton. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 6,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 894 yuan/ton [26]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply - **Imports and Exports**: As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a decrease of 1,825.51 tons or 7.64% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The monthly export volume was 759.243 tons, an increase of 513.33 tons or 208.75% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 249% [32]. - **Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, an increase of 2,840 tons or 5.26% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Downstream Demand - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 157,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22,500 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 231,050 tons, an increase of 12,150 tons or 5.55% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 37.08% [35]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 47,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, an increase of 440 tons or 0.16% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [39]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a decrease of 1,090 tons or 1.77% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to rise [44]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a decrease of 180 tons or 1.76% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 49,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 yuan/ton [48]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 388,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,800 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a decrease of 280 tons or 1.74% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 118.72% [51]. 3.6 Industry Situation - Application - **New - Energy Vehicles - Sales**: As of November 2025, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles was 47.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74% and a year - on - year increase of 7.18%. The monthly production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%; the sales volume was 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% [53]. - **New - Energy Vehicles - Exports**: As of November 2025, the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 102.89% [58]. 3.7 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.28, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cost support of the natural rubber market strengthened, and rubber prices showed a strong consolidation after surging. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, but the spot purchase price was lower than that of the far - month contracts. Factory restocking was in moderation. The futures market maintained a strong and volatile pattern, and domestic spot prices followed the upward trend. Downstream purchasing willingness was relatively weak, mainly for moderate and necessary restocking, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions [7]. - The Yunnan rubber - producing area in China is in the non - tapping period, and the Hainan area is at the end of the tapping season. It is expected that the Hainan area will fully enter the non - tapping period next week. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao ports has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the total inventory accumulation rate has expanded compared to the previous period. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuated at a high level. Some tire enterprises had holiday maintenance and shutdowns. Except for a small amount of restocking at low prices, most enterprises were in a wait - and - see mode, and their purchasing was cautious. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao ports led to a significant increase in the total inventory [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume operation, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The cost support of the natural rubber market strengthened this week. Import rubber offers rose, futures were volatile and strong, and domestic spot prices followed the increase. Downstream purchasing was mainly for necessary restocking, and actual transactions were light [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and Hainan is at the end of the tapping season. Qingdao port inventory is accumulating. Before the holiday, rubber prices are high, and tire enterprises' purchasing is cautious. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises decreased this week and may increase slightly next week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,600 - 16,400, and the nr2603 contract between 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 2.72% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber rose by 2.33% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided, only the topics of the top 20 position changes of Shanghai rubber and 20 - grade rubber are mentioned [12][14]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 9, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 25, and the spread between the February and March contracts of 20 - grade rubber was - 45 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 9, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 104,490 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber were 56,952 tons, a decrease of 1,007 tons from last week [26]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 8, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of January 8, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of January 9, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 56 (+1.8) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.2 (+1.1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 24 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of January 8, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the Yunnan producing area was in the non - tapping period [44]. - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [47]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.80% [51]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles sold [60].

Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 0.18% on January 8, with *ST Panda leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the diversified financial sector included: - Yalian Development (002316) with a closing price of 5.19, up 9.96% and a trading volume of 242,600 shares [1] - *ST Rendo (002647) closed at 8.38, up 5.01% with a trading volume of 175,300 shares [1] - Zhejiang Dongfang (600120) closed at 6.84, up 4.43% with a trading volume of 2,004,800 shares [1] - Other stocks with minor gains included Bohai Leasing (000415), Lakala (300773), and Haide Shares (000567) [1] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 175 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 256 million yuan [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that Zhejiang Dongfang had a significant net inflow of 158 million yuan from institutional investors, while Yalian Development experienced a net outflow of 25.39 million yuan from retail investors [3]