润改善，后续复产力度有望增加。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，7月房地产数据依旧继续下滑，下游深加 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1241 139 | 24 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 8 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1102 1532487 | 16 27765 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1395908 | -2793 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -411546 | -18978 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -365065 | -34435 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3394 | -70 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 797 | 797 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -45 | -4 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -94 | -10 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -41 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction is the low profit and limited downstream demand. In the short - term, the spot price may remain firm due to the increased non - aluminum procurement enthusiasm, and for the futures, attention should be paid to the pressure around 2600 for SH2509 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2532 yuan/ton, the futures trading volume is 874144 hands with an increase of 283841 hands, and the futures open interest is 237978 hands with a decrease of 14539 hands. The closing prices of the January and May contracts are 2509 yuan/ton and 2564 yuan/ton respectively, and the latter increased by 28 yuan/ton. The net position of the top 20 futures decreased from - 8629 hands to - 2114 hands [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are 840 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region is 2625 yuan/ton, and the basis is 93 yuan/ton with an increase of 26 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest regions are 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are - 550 yuan/ton and - 175 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13020 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3140 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. As of July 10th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.64% compared with the same period last year [1] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, new plants in Central and East China were under maintenance last week, while the load of some plants in South and North China increased, and the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.1% to 80.4%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, with an average profit of 300.3 yuan/ton; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 2.63% to 77.80%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.29% to 59.9% [1] 3.8 Inventory Situation - Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 374,300 tons, with little inventory pressure [1] 3.9 Outlook - The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased, but due to the concentrated maintenance of PVC downstream of liquid chlorine, the backlog of liquid chlorine has led to a deep price inversion and dragged down the chlor - alkali profit, thus restricting the increase in the caustic soda operating rate. This week, there are many plant shutdowns and restarts, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises has decreased. The non - aluminum demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Fundamental factors show that the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad is rising, the processing fee of zinc ore is continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, resulting in a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been widely adjusted, and downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. Overseas, the LME zinc premium has risen, and inventory has continued to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, with a decline in positions, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,738 US dollars/ton, down 39 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 238,274 lots, down 13,815 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 15,052 lots, down 8,302 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 9,171 tons, up 298 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 49,981 tons (weekly), up 4,617 tons, and the LME inventory is 105,250 tons, down 350 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,180 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,850 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 0.36 US dollars/ton, down 5.04 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; according to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production (monthly) is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined zinc is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons, and the export volume of refined zinc is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social inventory of zinc is 72,500 tons (weekly), up 2,700 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons, and the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.95% (daily), up 0.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.95% (daily), up 0.39 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.27% (daily), up 1.64 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.14% (daily), down 0.06 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest tariff measures announced by US President Trump have muddled the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support the interest - rate cut policy strongly advocated by Trump. The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge. In the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to the domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The raw - material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the increase in Indonesian nickel - iron production despite the higher supply cost caused by the PNBP policy. Steel mills are facing greater cost - inversion pressure and are increasing production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further. In the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure. Downstream industries are cautious and pessimistic. The domestic inventory de - stocking is poor, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking effect of subsequent production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected to have short - term volatile adjustments, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, with a change of 5. The 08 - 09 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,072 lots, a decrease of 540. The main - contract position is 66,494 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,051 tons, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The SS main - contract basis is 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units. - The monthly output of medium - and large - sized tractors is 10,400 units, and the monthly output of small tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 行业消息 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that US President Trump's newly announced tariff measures have muddled the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's advocated interest - rate cut policy. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge, and in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the policy implementation intensity and rhythm according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State has significant uncertainties, and Thailand has banned the transit transportation of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin mines. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, the tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined, and the electronics industry has entered a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has fluctuated widely, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory has continued to decline. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low - position in the open interest, and the price is adjusting widely within a range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars. - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the main contract open interest for Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,605 tons, down 26 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. - The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that US President Trump's newly announced tariff measures have muddled the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's strongly advocated interest - rate cut policy. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, the effects of the implemented monetary policies will further emerge, and in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, pay close attention to and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]. 3.7重点关注 Today, there is no important news [3].

预计有望继续调整，但整体回调力度并不会过大，重点关注现货价格幅度。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 41765 | 435 8-9月多晶硅价差 | 330 | 30 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 78328 | -7597 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 33070 | 155 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 45500 | -500 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 4670 | 15 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0.72 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased by 5.75% week-on-week to 164,000 tons. The number of domestic petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene maintenance devices increased this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Due to the restart of large domestic devices and the high volume of ships arriving at ports, pure benzene is still in a state of loose supply. Downstream demand is limited, mainly supported by styrene and caprolactam. There are plans to put new downstream devices into production this month, which may improve the supply - demand contradiction in the future market. In terms of cost, the overall global crude oil supply - demand is weak, but geopolitical uncertainties still disturb short - term oil prices. In the short term, the situation of low spot valuation caused by weak supply - demand may continue. The spot price of pure benzene is expected to fluctuate at a low level this week. Pay attention to the implementation of new downstream production capacity in the future market. BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the daily operating range expected to be around 6,100 - 6,300 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 6,189 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the settlement price was 6,209 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 37,605 lots, down 26,870 lots; the open interest was 14,760 lots, down 1,278 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,960 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; in the South China market, it was 5,950 yuan/ton; in the North China market, it was 5,860 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; in the Northeast region, it was 5,850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton. The FOB intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 722 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 738.5 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 72.64 US dollars/barrel, up 2.06 US dollars/barrel. The CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 584.25 US dollars/ton, down 6.75 US dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output was 431,700 tons, down 1,600 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 174,000 tons, down 3,000 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The total开工率 of styrene was 79.21%, down 0.82%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41%; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, down 0.1%; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, up 2% [2] Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the weekly profit of pure benzene was 584 yuan/ton, down 153 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. As of July 14th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 164,000 tons, down 5.75% compared with the previous period. BZ2603 fluctuated widely and closed at 6,189 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the impact of the shutdown of petroleum benzene devices expanded last week, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.29% week - on - week to 77.85%; three hydrobenzene devices were shut down, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 9.32% week - on - week to 61.95%. On the demand side, the downstream开工率 of pure benzene rose and fell last week [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - International supply is expected to be loose, suppressing raw sugar prices, but short - term support exists due to Pakistan's import plan and reduced sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in late June [2]. - In China, there is a divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign markets. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. However, the summer consumption peak and the demand for food and beverage inventory replenishment provide some support for sugar prices [2]. - Recently, the domestic white sugar price fluctuates repeatedly following raw sugar, but shows stronger performance than the foreign market due to rising domestic demand. In the later period, with both supply and demand being strong, price fluctuations will intensify. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5817 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 327,581 hands, with a change of 17,613 hands [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 22,716, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, a decrease of 106 [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22,354 hands [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4539 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5769 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5905 yuan/ton, 6060 yuan/ton, and 6140 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; Brazil's monthly sugar export volume is 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1543 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1414 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 353 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 184 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar is 7.55%, a decrease of 3.45 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.58%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.55%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's latest supply - demand report shows that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season starting in October is 9.19 million short tons, a decrease of 59,000 short tons from last month's estimate due to the decline in beet sugar production. Sugar consumption is expected to be reduced by 165,000 short tons to 12.16 million short tons [2].

推动蛋价反弹。盘面来看，受现货低位回弹提振，盘面跌势也有所放缓，可轻仓试多远月。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3461 | 19 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -27512 | 1339 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(9-1):(日,元/500千克) | -10 | 22 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 99503 | -11564 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 24 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 2.78 | 0.19 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | -676 | 170 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 110.89 | -1.46 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent supply and demand are both weak. Downstream buyers purchase as needed, leading to a slight increase in domestic social inventory, while overseas inventory remains stable. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low level of open interest. Attention should be paid to the pressure of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai Nickel is -120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,235 dollars/ton, down 50 dollars. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 59,940 lots, down 1,587 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is -14,145 lots, down 3,937 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 206,580 tons, up 402 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 25,047 tons (weekly), up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,318 tons, up 768 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 21,296 tons, up 854 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 650 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -202.24 dollars/ton, down 3.99 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 896.49 million tons (weekly), up 24.65 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is down 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.44 million tons, up 1.85 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest tariff measures announced by US President Trump have muddied the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support the interest - rate cut policy strongly advocated by Trump. The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of the implemented monetary policies will further emerge. In the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]