生猪产业日报 2025-07-14 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14285 | -60 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 69384 | -2852 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 444 | -3 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -16658 | 219 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14600 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 1 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 14, 2025 - Report Name: Methanol Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol has decreased slightly due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity outputs from restarts. The port inventory of methanol may accumulate slightly as downstream demand remains weak. The olefin industry's overall start - up increased slightly last week, and the start - up rate may continue to rise slightly this week, but some MTO devices are expected to stop. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2396 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 67 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 655,519 lots, down 29,742 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 103,899 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,528, down 162 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1975 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 395 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 26 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 273 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 245 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 60 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.36 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.01 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 tons, up 6.1 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 14.84 tons, down 1.58 tons. The import profit of methanol is 2.98 yuan/ton, up 24.09 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons; the methanol enterprise start - up rate is 84.75%, down 3.43% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 45.24%, down 0.83%; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, unchanged; the start - up rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, up 0.49%; the start - up rate of MTBE is 66.86%, up 1.8%; the start - up rate of olefins is 85.15%, up 0.55%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 921 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.87%, down 2.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.77%, down 0.24%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options of methanol is 16.05%, up 0.38% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.69 tons, up 0.46 tons, a 1.31% increase; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 22.12 tons, down 2.00 tons, an 8.29% decrease. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 71.89 tons, up 4.52 tons. The inventory in East China increased by 6.1 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 1.58 tons. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.94%, a 0.55% increase [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The tariff situation has heated up again, the market risk appetite has declined, and short - term market hedging demand has increased, causing the gold price to break through an important level [2]. - The jump in the implied annualized lease rate of London spot silver indicates a surge in investment demand leading to tight inventories, providing strong support for the silver price, which may continue to rise in the short term [2]. - Gold prices may still be driven by three factors: the Fed's dovish policy expectation suppressing real interest rates, the risk of US fiscal deficit monetization pushing up sovereign credit premiums, and geopolitical uncertainty maintaining hedging demand [2]. - The long - term supply - demand tightness of silver provides price support. However, due to the large uncertainty in inflation prospects and the swing of rate - cut expectations, and the silver price being at a high level since 2012, it may face some short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 7.84 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9207 yuan/kilogram, up 167 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai gold main contract is 191,083 lots, up 9,151 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract is 448,095 lots, up 45,139 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 133,792 lots, up 2,823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract is 147,543 lots, up 16,243 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kilograms, up 4,272 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,223,982 kilograms, down 79,611 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.2 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 9168 yuan/kilogram, up 182 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.2 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 39 yuan/kilogram, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, down 1.16 tons; the silver ETF position is 14,758.52 tons, down 131.41 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.62%, up 0.73%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.69%, down 0.36% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches from July 7 to July 12, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [2]. - The 35% tariff on Canada does not apply to goods meeting the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and Canada will not double its retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum as originally planned [2]. - Trump has criticized Fed Chairman Powell multiple times this year for not announcing rate cuts, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 920.0, up 1.15%. The market should be treated with a bias towards a bullish oscillation. For coke, the J2509 contract closed at 1525.0, up 1.09%, and it should also be treated with a bias towards a bullish oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 920.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 was 1525.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 807,762.00 hands, up 15,898.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 was 55,759.00 hands, up 285.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was -61,570.00 hands, down 13,485.00 hands; that of J was -4,034.00 hands, down 351.00 hands [2]. - The JM1 - 9 monthly contract spread was 43.50 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan; the J1 - 9 monthly contract spread was 44.00 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 1,400.00 sheets, up 1,200.00 sheets; the coke warehouse receipts were 90.00 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 757.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 118.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1330.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J主力合约基差 was - 135.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 960.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM主力合约基差 was 10.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 300.77 million tons, down 11.40 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 197.07 million tons, down 17.91 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.33%, up 2.61 percentage points; the raw coal output was 40,328.40 million tons, up 1,397.80 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3,303.70 million tons, down 300.30 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.80 thousand tons, up 3.80 thousand tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 553.79 million tons, up 29.08 million tons; the total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 892.35 million tons, up 44.17 million tons [2]. - The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 782.93 million tons, down 6.67 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 637.80 million tons, up 0.31 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises were 12.48 days, down 0.03 days; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.64 days, up 0.12 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 738.69 million tons, down 150.65 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons [2]. - The output of coking coal was 4,070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, down 0.30 percentage points [2]. - The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 63.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan/ton; the output of coke was 4,237.60 million tons, up 77.60 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.44%, down 0.40 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, down 0.58 percentage points [2]. - The crude steel output was 8,654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association, Wang Yingsheng, said that the total steel output in China has reached its peak. The domestic consumption of crude steel is expected to remain at around 800 - 900 million tons, and the industry shows an obvious trend of减量 development, but the industrial concentration is increasing [2]. - Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with US Secretary of State Rubio in Kuala Lumpur. They agreed to strengthen communication and dialogue and explore expanding cooperation areas [2]. - Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng chaired a party group meeting, stating that efforts should be made to implement large - scale equipment renewal and technological transformation projects in the manufacturing industry and promote digital transformation [2]. - In the next week, the heat will intensify in many places, and nearly 10 provinces such as Shaanxi, Hebei, and Henan will experience extremely hot weather above 40°C [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with the previous optimistic sentiment on the disk gradually calming down and the market returning to the fundamental reality. The electrolytic aluminum market has a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, and its upward space may be limited due to the off - season and trade uncertainties. The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the cost support logic is relatively strong, and its upward space in the short term may be limited [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,415 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,602 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract was 19,805 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 32,657 hands, and those of alumina decreased by 10,712 hands. The main contract positions of casting aluminum alloy decreased by 558 hands [2] - LME aluminum inventories increased by 4,550 tons to 400,275 tons, and Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventories increased by 8,565 tons to 103,197 tons. The total alumina inventory decreased by 5,347 tons to 59,664 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,470 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan [2] - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of casting aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, and alumina all weakened [2] Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month was 748.80 million tons, an increase of 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 720.02 million tons, an increase of 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina was - 25.26 million tons, a decrease of 15.33 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap, it was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The export volume of alumina was 21.00 million tons, a decrease of 5.00 million tons; the import volume was 6.75 million tons, an increase of 5.68 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 41.20 million tons, a decrease of 1.20 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,520.70 million tons, an increase of 0.50 million tons [2] - The primary aluminum import volume was 223,095.59 tons, a decrease of 27,381.21 tons; the export volume was 32,094.07 tons, an increase of 18,421.29 tons [2] - The aluminum product production was 576.20 million tons, a decrease of 0.20%; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 48.90 million tons, a decrease of 6.10 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 164.50 million tons, an increase of 11.70 million tons [2] - The automobile production was 264.20 million vehicles, an increase of 3.80 million vehicles. The National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 1.40% to 9.69%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.68% to 9.35%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased slightly [2] Industry News - The global trade pattern is at a critical turning point. The US tariff policy has promoted the global trade system to develop towards true diversification. The influence of the US is gradually weakening, and developing countries and emerging economies are becoming new growth points [2] - The proportion of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 50% this year, and the sales volume is expected to reach 16 million [2] Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, and the alumina supply is relatively abundant. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is stable. The market is gradually returning to the fundamental reality. It is recommended to trade with a light position and control risks [2] Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable with a slight increase, the demand is weak due to the off - season, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to trade with a light position and control risks [2] Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The supply and demand of casting aluminum alloy are both weak, but the cost support is strong. The market is in a game between cost support and weak fundamentals, and the upward space in the short term is limited. It is recommended to trade with a light position and control risks [2]

价格预计强于现货。技术上，EB2508日度K线关注7360附近支撑与7550附近压力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 苯乙烯产业日报 2025-07-14 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7478 391013 | 62 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 6256 9月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 294934 7367 | -47719 51 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | | 手) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 238912 | -3097 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -13527 | -52 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17085 | 10 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2017 | -20 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -30 | 10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 94820 | -1037 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1632 | 407 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 55130 | 2229 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 55149 | 1846 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 249375 | -3000 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16875 | -50 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17040 | -30 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -210 | -60 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -33.62 | -11.04 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) WB ...

证券代码：002961 证券简称：瑞达期货 公告编号：2025-064 债券代码：128116 债券简称：瑞达转债 | 证券代码:002961 | | --- | | 债券代码:128116 | 瑞达期货股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日 2、业绩预告情况： 亏损 扭亏为盈 同向上升 同向下降 | 项目 | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股 东的净利润 | 盈利：20,600 万元–25,060 万元 | | | 盈利：13,682.62 | | 万元 | | | 比上年同期增长：50.56%–83.15% | | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股 东的扣除非经常性 | 盈利：20,588.20 万元 | 万元–25,048.20 | | 盈利：13,400.89 | | 万元 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,695 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the position of the main contract is 402,890 lots, up 35,080 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 76,228 lots, up 2,828 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,229 lots, down 315 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is 5 yuan, up 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, up 0.72 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 117,000 tons, up 16,450 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 7,624.27 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - There are frequent rumors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, but they are not confirmed and need further tracking. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1st [2]. 3.7 Supply - side Analysis - The spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly this period. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have no news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest region has decreased. The resumption of production in Baoshan is positive, but the scale in Nujiang and Dehong is lower than expected. Sichuan manufacturers mainly focus on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants, with no significant increase in the overall operating rate [2]. 3.8 Demand - side Analysis - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. In the organic silicon market, the spot price has increased, and production profits have recovered, supporting the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, mainstream enterprises have cut production, and downstream photovoltaic demand has declined, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing and prices flat, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].

7月14日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前。其中，工业硅期货主力合约开盘报8460.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，工业硅主力最高触及8740.0元，下方探低8350.0元，涨幅达2.85%附近。 目前来看，工业硅行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于工业硅后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 广州期货指出，反内卷效果显著，下游多晶硅大幅上调报价，其利润得到明显修复，市场预期对原料工 业硅采购压价情绪或有所缓解，进而带动工业硅市场情绪改善，在库存压力并未进一步增加情况下，短 期或仍有支撑。但西南丰水期背景下，后续南方工厂套保意愿或逐步增强，对反弹高度存在压制。策略 上，波段操作思路，主力合约参考区间（8000，9000）。 中辉期货表示，强预期VS弱现实，成本端焦煤反弹对工业硅形成支撑。基本面尚未出现实质性改善， 高库存压制上方反弹空间。价格波动剧烈谨慎追涨【8240-8550】。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，从供应端来看，本期工业硅现货价格大幅上行，当前西北伊犁地区的化肥 补贴政策仍保持稳定执行，暂无显著调整；大型生产企业未传出减产或停产的相关消息。西南区域生产 成本有所下降，其中保 ...