Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 0.18% on January 8, with *ST Panda leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the diversified financial sector included: - Yalian Development (002316) with a closing price of 5.19, up 9.96% and a trading volume of 242,600 shares [1] - *ST Rendo (002647) closed at 8.38, up 5.01% with a trading volume of 175,300 shares [1] - Zhejiang Dongfang (600120) closed at 6.84, up 4.43% with a trading volume of 2,004,800 shares [1] - Other stocks with minor gains included Bohai Leasing (000415), Lakala (300773), and Haide Shares (000567) [1] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 175 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 256 million yuan [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that Zhejiang Dongfang had a significant net inflow of 158 million yuan from institutional investors, while Yalian Development experienced a net outflow of 25.39 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the price of the container shipping index (European line) futures dropped significantly. The main contract EC2602 closed down 8.98%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1795.83, up 53.19 points from last week, a 3.1% increase. The manufacturing PMI data in China in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas. [1] - Maersk lowered the quotation for some non - European base ports (such as Gdansk) by $250 in the fourth week of January, and CMA CGM and the Ocean Alliance also lowered their quotations for the first half of January. The market quotation center generally fell to the range of $2300 - 2800 per FEU. The loosening of spot quotations by leading shipping companies broke the market's expectation of consistent price support by shipping companies, leading to a rapid decline in futures prices. [1] - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and European partners have reached a new level, and the conflict with Russia is expected to end in the first half of 2026. The expectation of the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has improved. The euro - zone economy has continued to pick up, and the inflation sub - item has continued to decline, which creates conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude. The euro - zone economy is expected to continue its relative strength since the third quarter. [1] - The planned freight rate increase has not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered their prices, and the support for futures prices has weakened. The geopolitical situation may improve, leading to a significant decline in freight rates. The current freight rate market is generally greatly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner. [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Data Indicators - EC main contract closing price: 1706.000, down 168.3; EC second - main contract closing price: 1163.3, down 58.20 [1] - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: - 54.40 (down), EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 291.00, down 65.20 [1] - EC contract basis: 89.83, up 73.10 [1] - EC main contract open interest: 20008, down 1803 [1] - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1795.83, up 53.19; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1250.12, down 51.29 [1] - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1656.32, up 103.40; Container ship capacity (in 10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged [1] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1146.67, up 21.94; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1519.06, up 45.16 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1776.00, up 54.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1317.00, down 13.00 [1] - Average charter price (Panamax ship): unchanged; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 20582.00, down 963.00 [1] Industry News - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and European partners have reached a new stage, and the conflict with Russia may end during Cyprus' term as the rotating EU presidency in 2026. [1] - The US "small non - farm" in December 2025 showed a mild recovery. The number of private - sector employees in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. The number of JOLTS job openings in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, hitting the lowest level since September 2024. [1] - The preliminary value of the euro - zone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service - sector inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. The market expects that unless there is a major change in the economic outlook, the European Central Bank will remain on hold for a long time. [1] Key Points to Watch - Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate in November on January 9th at 15:00 [1] - China's CPI annual rate in December on January 9th at 09:30 [1] - France's industrial output monthly rate in November on January 9th at 15:45 [1] - Euro - zone's retail sales monthly rate in November on January 9th at 18:00 [1] - US unemployment rate in December on January 9th at 21:30 [1] - US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls (in 10,000 people) in December on January 9th at 21:30 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. In December, the three major official PMI indices in China rebounded from below the boom - bust line to the expansion range, indicating economic repair signs. The important meetings at the end of 2025 set a positive tone for the economic work in 2026, creating a warm macro - environment and strong bottom support for A - shares [2]. - The US labor market shows a mild recovery. However, due to the demand for foreign exchange settlement of export enterprises and the expectation of economic recovery, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel. After the offshore RMB exchange rate weakened on January 7th, it strengthened again, and the strong exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in the first quarter [2]. - As the Spring Festival is relatively late this year, the market has started to trade in advance the policy expectations of the Two Sessions to be held in early March, leading to an obvious pre - positioning of the A - share spring market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - **Contract Prices**: The latest price of the IF (CSI 300) main contract (2603) is 4718.4, down 33.0; the IH (SSE 50) main contract (2603) is 3122.4, down 19.4; the IC (CSI 500) main contract (2603) is 7814.4, up 4.2; the IM (CSI 1000) main contract (2603) is 7820.6, up 52.0 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The IF - IH spread of the current - month contract is 1616.2, down 12.2; the IC - IF spread is 3151.6, up 54.8; the IM - IC spread is 64.6, up 52.2 [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20**: The net position of the top 20 in IF is - 31,972.00, up 2406.0; in IH is - 15,637.00, up 327.0; in IC is - 28,190.00, down 1954.0; in IM is - 43,286.00, down 2146.0 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the IF main contract is - 19.3, up 4.4; the IH main contract is 0.3, up 1.7; the IC main contract is - 80.1, down 7.7; the IM main contract is - 552.6, down 151.0 [2]. Spot Market Data - **Index Prices**: The CSI 300 is 4737.65, down 39.0; the SSE 50 is 3122.1, down 23.1; the CSI 500 is 7894.5, up 19.5; the CSI 1000 is not clearly presented in a comparable form [2]. - **Market Turnover and Balance**: A - share trading volume is 7,971.6 billion yuan, up 65.2; margin trading balance is 26,047.42 billion yuan, up 248.42; north - bound trading volume is 3268.59 billion yuan, up 82.68 [2]. Market Sentiment - **Fund Flows**: The main funds' net outflow decreased from - 633.24 billion yuan to - 536.40 billion yuan [2]. - **Option Data**: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2601) is 40.60, down 21.40; the implied volatility is 14.99%, up 0.28; the closing price of the put option is 49.00, up 12.40; the implied volatility is 14.99%, down 0.10 [2]. - **Volatility and PCR**: The 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index is 13.64%, up 0.24; the volume PCR is 47.47%, down 5.47; the open interest PCR is 75.80%, down 6.80 [2]. Industry News - A - share major indices mostly closed down, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chips. The defense and military industry sector strengthened significantly, while the non - bank financial sector weakened [2]. - In the US, the private - sector employment in December increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline and driving the overnight US dollar index stronger [2]. Key Data to Focus On - On January 8th at 20:30, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US in December; on January 9th at 9:30, China's December CPI and PPI; on January 9th at 21:30, the US's December non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. Imported soybean customs clearance policies affect near - month supply. With Australian rapeseed arriving, the marginal supply increases, and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations enhances the medium - and long - term supply pressure. Meanwhile, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal price dropped significantly today and is generally volatile [2]. - The rapeseed oil market: Domestic oil mills continue to be shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price and keeping the basis at a high level. Imported soybean customs clearance policies affect near - month supply. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed for later crushing and the increasing expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure increases. The rapeseed oil price is volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 8,956 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2,358 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan. The futures closing price of the active ICE rapeseed was 618.5 Canadian dollars/ton, up 5.7 Canadian dollars; that of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was 13 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was - 61 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract position of rapeseed oil was 248,582 lots, up 20,113 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 785,807 lots, up 64,896 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 22,389 lots, down 9,350 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 97,538 lots, down 78,782 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,892, down 238; that of rapeseed meal was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,440 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,806.25 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The import cost price of imported rapeseed was 7,488.03 yuan/ton, up 87.2 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 744 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; that of the main rapeseed meal contract was 82 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,220 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,080 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 710 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons. The annual forecasted rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 499 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rate**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4. Industry Situation - **Imports**: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume was 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue was 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6. Options Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.56%, up 1.51%; that of at - the - money put options was 19.57%, up 1.51%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.25%, up 1.35%; that of at - the - money put options was 16.25%, up 1.36% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.75%, down 0.59%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 12%, up 0.17%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.01%, down 0.62%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 13.17%, up 0.01% [2]. 3.7. Industry News - On January 7 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by optimistic trade expectations and the spill - over effect of the stronger US soybeans. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract rose 6.10 Canadian dollars, settling at 620 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the short - term supply is abundant, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means that the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, so there is still pressure on the US soybean market [2]. 3.8. Key Points to Follow - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will enter an adjustment phase, and investors should pay attention to the battle at the 24,000 yuan mark. The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has intensified, leading to a significant decline in processing fees both at home and abroad, and a contraction in domestic smelter profits, which is expected to continue to limit production. The export window may close again due to the recent decline in LME zinc prices and the rise in the Shanghai-London ratio. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors also weakening, while the automotive sector has some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, with weak procurement recently, high and stable spot premiums, and a significant increase in domestic inventories. The increase in LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position has decreased, the price has adjusted, the bullish sentiment is cautious, and there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan; the 02 - 03 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,167.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 83.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 225,559 lots, a decrease of 4,684 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 5,885 lots, an increase of 163 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons; the LME inventory is 105,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 45.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.53 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, a decrease of 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 1.139 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, an increase of 240,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 25.8%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 25.8%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 19.15%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 12.39%, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Eight departments plan to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals, aiming to achieve safe and reliable supply of key core technologies in artificial intelligence in China by 2027. The Bloomberg Commodity Index will conduct its annual weight re - balancing from January 8th to 14th, and the "technical selling" of passive funds may cause a liquidity shock. In the US, the ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, reversing the decline in November but lower than expected. The JOLTS job openings in November dropped to a more than one - year low, with the number of job openings less than the number of unemployed for the first time in four years, indicating a slowdown in recruitment. The ISM services PMI in December reached 54.4, a more than one - year high, showing robust demand and a recovery in recruitment [3].

大；云南开榨糖厂已达38家，同比增加7家。12月广西糖产量同比减少，白糖价格震荡可能。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5279 | -2 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 429678 | -10268 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 6005 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -71689 | 9715 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 4563 | 0 | | | | | | 4079 | 50 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 4124 | 50 | | 现货市场 | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5168 | 吨) 65 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5227 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas of China decreased by 126,600 tons compared with last week, and the de - stocking speed increased slightly month - on - month but was still lower than the same period last year. The market price of high - quality Fuji apples in the cold storage was relatively stable, and the general fruit farmer's goods were priced according to quality. The overall trading atmosphere in the producing areas was not strong, and most merchants purchased on demand. In the Shaanxi producing area, the trading volume of fruit farmers' goods increased slightly, while in the Shandong producing area, the transactions were sporadic. The downstream traders replenished their stocks cautiously, and the trading of fruit farmers' goods was light. In the sales area, fruits such as cherries and citrus were popular, but as the producing areas entered the festival stocking stage, the short - term price would run strongly [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 9,531 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest was 122,541 lots, a decrease of 11,108 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 5,464 lots, a decrease of 1,061 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) was 5.25 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) was 2.4 yuan/jin, both unchanged. The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) was 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 second - grade fruit farmers' goods) was 4 yuan/jin, both unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China was 51.2851 million tons, an increase of 1.6834 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples was 9.43 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.1 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.80%, and that of Shandong apples was 51.85%, a decrease of 0.57%. The total inventory of national apple cold storage was 7.209 million tons, a decrease of 126,600 tons. The monthly export volume of apples was 120,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 11.17946 million US dollars, a decrease of 2.16418 million US dollars. The year - on - year export value of apples decreased by 216,418 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears was 6.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas was 6.93 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 5.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg. The average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 17.25 vehicles, a decrease of 1.35 vehicles; that at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 21.25 vehicles, and that at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market was 31.75 vehicles, a decrease of 4.05 vehicles [2] Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 25.08%, an increase of 0.1%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 25.08%, an increase of 0.09% [2]

企业收单明显好转，报价连续上涨，但因前期尿素企业库存已经有部分增加，去库幅度有限。随着近期尿 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 素价格上涨，下游追涨趋势或有所放缓，短期尿素企业去库幅度预计有限。UR2605合约短线预计在1750-1 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 800区间波动。 免责声明 尿素产业日报 2026-01-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1776 | -14 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | -1 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 232651 | -344 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -19358 | 7570 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 12850 | 231 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1750 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market has relatively sufficient supply as the national cotton inspection volume has exceeded 6 million tons, and the ginning mills' lint processing is nearly finished. The orders for medium - and high - count yarns from downstream textile enterprises are stable, with most enterprises making just - in - time replenishments. Some regional warehouses have seen a slight decrease in inventory, and overall outbound shipments are good, but the national commercial inventory is expected to continue increasing. - There are growing expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, and the new cycle of target price subsidies provides a bottom - line support. In the short term, the upward driving force for cotton prices remains unchanged, and potential risks and correction opportunities should be monitored. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,740 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 20,795 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 162,774 lots, an increase of 27,643 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 2,298 lots, an increase of 203 lots. - The main contract positions of cotton were 862,891 lots, a decrease of 62,575 lots; the main contract positions of cotton yarn were 17,043 lots, a decrease of 906 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 7,189 lots, an increase of 140 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 20 lots, unchanged. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,992 yuan/ton, an increase of 208 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The arrival price of imported cotton (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,599 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 21,059 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan. - The arrival price of imported cotton (FCIndexM:sliding duty) was 13,729 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,387 yuan/ton, an increase of 103 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,308 yuan/ton, down 208 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 120,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 150,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 2,263 yuan/ton, an increase of 233 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.81 billion meters, an increase of 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.039 million tons, an increase of 0.038 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, an increase of 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,275,733 thousand US dollars, an increase of 1,017,314.08 thousand US dollars. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 15.87%, an increase of 2.74%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 15.87%, an increase of 2.73%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 9.63%, an increase of 0.32%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.53%, an increase of 0.27%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of the week of January 4, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 0.53% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 397,300 tons. Among them, the inventory in Shandong's Qingdao, Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses was 334,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.48%, the inventory in Jiangsu's Zhangjiagang port and surrounding warehouses was about 34,100 tons, and the inventory in other ports was about 29,200 tons. This week, the arrivals were mainly Brazilian and Australian cotton, and the quotas have not been issued yet, with the market in a wait - and - see mode. - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures fell on Wednesday, erasing earlier gains and closing lower due to the stronger US dollar. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.21 cents, or 0.32%, at 64.85 cents per pound. - Brazil's cotton sowing progress is smooth, significantly faster than the five - year average. As of the week of December 27, 2025, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% the previous week and a five - year average of 15.6%. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is gradually digesting potential negatives, and sentiment has eased. In the short - term, interest rates are expected to continue in a volatile pattern due to the intersection of multiple factors. The government bond issuance scale in Q1 is expected to be roughly the same as in Q1 2025, and the specific proportion of ultra - long bond supply remains to be confirmed. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year may lead to a short - term profit - taking demand and a market consolidation, which is expected to relieve liquidity pressure. However, the fundamental support may weaken, and the necessity of further loose monetary policies in the short - term has decreased [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.15%, 0.09%, 0.02%, and 0.37% respectively. - **Futures Volumes**: T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 10,723, 262, and 12,149 respectively, while TL main contract trading volume increased by 1,357. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads increased (e.g., TL2603 - 2606, T2603 - 2606), while others decreased (e.g., T03 - TL03, TF03 - T03). - **Futures Positions**: T main contract open interest increased by 2,197, TF and TS main contract open interests decreased by 4,357 and 889 respectively, and TL main contract open interest decreased by 2,129 [2] 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 250018.IB (up 0.0793), 220025.IB (up 0.0642), etc. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds increased by 3.50bp, 1.25bp, 1.25bp, and 1.55bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 2.91bp, Shibor overnight rate increased by 0.40bp; silver - pledged 7 - day rate decreased by 5.62bp, Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 1.20bp; silver - pledged 14 - day rate increased by 1.67bp, Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 2.90bp. - **LPR Rates**: 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - On January 8, the central bank will conduct 1100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase maturing this month, achieving an equal - amount offset and the third consecutive month of equal - amount roll - over [2] 3.5 Industry News - China's foreign exchange reserves reached a ten - year high in December 2025, with a scale of 3357.9 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.15 billion US dollars. Gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces month - on - month, marking the 14th consecutive month of increase. - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'", aiming to achieve a safe and reliable supply of key core technologies in artificial intelligence by 2027 [2][3]