螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/9/30 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,072.00 | -25↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1873832 | -52807↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -132445 | +38386↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -56 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 291546 | +15608↑ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Holiday - eve saw a divergence in the Shanghai precious metals market, with the Shanghai gold futures main - contract price hitting a new record high and the upward momentum of silver slowing [2]. - Geopolitical factors: If the peace agreement between the US and Israel makes substantial progress, the safe - haven premium of precious metals may decline, and a short - term correction is possible. The potential US government shutdown due to the lack of short - term funding has heightened market risk aversion [2]. - Fed officials emphasized the risk of inflation rebound, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts and a data - dependent path. The recent strong US economic data has slightly reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may hinder the upward movement of gold prices [2]. - The US 8 - month core PCE data met market expectations. Although the interest rate cut expectation declined marginally due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the PCE data's mildness secured a 25bps interest rate cut in the next FOMC meeting [2]. - The gold and silver ETFs in the external market had significant net inflows, and market bullish sentiment remained high. The market focus is on US economic data and Fed policies. Weak non - farm payrolls this week would increase the probability of further interest rate cuts and boost precious metals, while high inflation and economic resilience could lead to a rebound in the US dollar and bond yields and put downward pressure on precious metals [2]. - In the long - term, the US fiscal deficit, debt issues, tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. Silver generally follows gold, and the structural demand in the photovoltaic and new - energy sectors may bring additional elasticity when the global manufacturing industry stabilizes. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and beware of short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold futures main contract was 874.4 yuan/gram, up 7.88 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver futures main contract was 10918 yuan/kg, down 21 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 256,876 lots, down 6,344 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 476,244 lots, down 32,723 lots. The net positions of the top 20 traders in the Shanghai gold main contract were 166,413 lots, down 1,306 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 105,881 lots, up 6,986 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The gold warehouse receipts were 70,728 kg, up 2,100 kg; the silver warehouse receipts were 1,192,282 kg, up 2,634 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 872.95 yuan/gram, up 15.92 yuan; the silver spot price was 10,913 yuan/kg, up 143 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold futures main contract was - 1.45 yuan/gram, up 8.04 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver futures main contract was - 5 yuan/kg, up 164 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 1,011.73 tons, up 6.01 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,521.35 tons, up 159.51 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver were 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 13.38%, down 0.71 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.45%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 21.12%, up 1.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.11%, up 1.53 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump and Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting, and a peace plan was proposed. If implemented, the war would end immediately, and Israeli troops would withdraw to the agreed - upon border [2]. - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on overseas - made movies and large tariffs on countries where furniture is not made in the US [2]. - The value of the US Treasury's 261.5 million ounces of gold reserves exceeded $1 trillion. A market - value revaluation would release about $990 billion in funds for the US Treasury [2]. - Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts. Hamack opposed rate cuts due to inflation concerns, Musalem was open to future rate cuts but cautious, and Williams said monetary policy remained tight [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, the number of newly scheduled maintenance PVC plants is small, and previously shut - down plants are gradually restarting, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. The 200,000 - ton plant of Qingdao Gulf is expected to be put into production in October, which may further increase the industry's supply pressure. - In the early part of October, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production. After the holiday, there will be a phased replenishment demand from downstream enterprises, but the growth space of demand is restricted by the weak domestic real - estate market. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines, and its role in alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction is limited. - The PVC inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend, which is the main source of price pressure. Currently, the calcium carbide process is deeply in the red, and chlor - alkali enterprises use alkali profits to offset chlorine losses. As chlor - alkali profits shrink, the lower limit of PVC valuation may rise in the future, providing some support for the price. The PVC futures price is continuously suppressed by the supply - demand contradiction, but considering the current low valuation and cost support, the further downward space of the price may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,839 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan; the trading volume is 591,738 lots, a decrease of 62,851 lots; the open interest is 1,073,359 lots, a decrease of 1,002 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 837,249 lots, a decrease of 7,171 lots; the short position is 950,096 lots, an increase of 8,660 lots; the net long position is - 112,847 lots, a decrease of 15,831 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the spot market, the prices of ethylene - based PVC in East and South China remain unchanged, while the prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East and South China decline slightly. The CIF prices of PVC in China and Southeast Asia and the FOB price in Northwest Europe remain unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in North and Northwest China decline, while that in Central China remains unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East increase, while those in Southeast Asia remain unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.97%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.33%, an increase of 2.44 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 78.13%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 534,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The inventory in East China increases by 1,300 tons, while that in South China decreases by 1,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index is 93.05, a decrease of 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6.4310894 billion square meters, an increase of 43.7794 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.37%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.7%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options of PVC is 14.74%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [3]. 3.7行业消息 - From September 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. From September 19th to 25th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreases by 1.43% to 47.76%, among which the operating rate of pipes increases by 1.3% to 40.43%, and the operating rate of profiles decreases by 0.52% to 38.91%. As of September 25th, the PVC social inventory is 971,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%. From September 19th to 25th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increases to 5,312 yuan/ton, and the profit decreases by 127 yuan/ton to - 657 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreases to 5,602 yuan/ton, and the profit increases by 7 yuan/ton to - 645 yuan/ton [3].

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-09-30 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 120900 | -200 10-11月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -590 | -310 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15325 | 170 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 76140 | -7009 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -26033 | 2907 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 231312 | 1188 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 29008 | -826 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 6780 | -198 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 24817 | -240 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122450 | 450 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122550 | 650 ...

中东、俄乌地缘局势仍存不确定性，或给到短期油价一定支撑。总体上，国内纯苯供需矛盾改善有限，BZ2 免责声明 603预计在低估值区间偏弱震荡。关注假期国际油价走势对节后开盘的影响。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯苯产业日报 2025-09-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 5800 | -85 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 5801 | -94 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | 5583 5860 ...

棕榈油产业日报 2025-09-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 9228 | -6 棕榈油1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 192 | 18 90 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:棕榈油(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):棕榈油(日,手) | 332147 | -21314 注册仓单量:棕榈油(日,手) | 500 | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:棕榈油(日,手) | 15778 | -9449 期货结算价(连续):BMD毛棕榈油(日,马来 | 4318 | -2 | | | 期货结算价(活跃合约):NYMEX轻质原油( | 63.45 | 西亚林吉特/吨) -2.27 | | | | | 日,美元/桶) 现货价:棕榈油(24度):广东(日,元/吨) | 9060 | -50 棕榈油(马来西亚):FOB离岸价(日,美元/吨 | 1090 | -5 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | 现货价:棕榈油(24度):张家港(日,元/吨) | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market is still under fundamental sentiment suppression but remains stable overall. The new energy - consumption national standard may affect the supply pattern in the short - term, and the uncertainty of the "anti - involution" policy is an important factor in market fluctuations. New capacity faces difficulties in being launched in the short - term. On the demand side, silicon wafer prices are flat, downstream inventory is high, new orders slow down, and domestic PV installation has declined for two consecutive months, resulting in weak terminal demand. However, the growth in N - type material demand may offset some of the P - type surplus and support prices. It is recommended to buy on dips and observe whether downstream PV enterprises can effectively transfer costs after the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 51,360 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread is - 2,560 yuan, down 60 yuan; the main position is 87,359 lots, down 6,409 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,720 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 1,270 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the weekly average price of PV - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,640 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price is 9,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.89 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6,985.7 million watts, up 347.5 million watts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 149,022,600 units, up 38,589,900 units; the monthly import volume is 21,440,200 units, up 6,914,600 units; the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars/unit. The weekly PV industry comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - At the 2025 Brazil São Paulo Solar Exhibition, TrinaTracker announced supplying a 130MW Smart Tracking System for the Colinas project in Brazil, showing continuous breakthroughs of Chinese PV enterprises in the Latin American market. The draft of the new energy - consumption national standard for polysilicon has been released, and the "anti - involution" policy details are yet to be finalized [2].

整体需求尚未出现明显的爆发式增长，仍处于缓慢恢复阶段。从国内外库存数据来看，国外铅库存下跌， 国内库存也呈现下跌趋势，仓单数量同样下降，整体库存下降表明需求在一定程度上拉动了库存去化。国 | | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-09-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16940 | 85 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1997 | -4.5 | | | 11-12月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -45 | -15 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 72939 | -6723 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -2066 | -1650 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 29568 | -2378 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 41894 | -7315 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 218825 | -600 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16800 | 0 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/ ...

Report Date - The report is dated September 30, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The supply side has pressure as large - scale farms continue to sell and small - scale farmers are also actively selling large pigs. The demand side has marginal improvement due to cooler weather, price drops, and approaching holidays, but the growth is less than that of the supply side. The supply is sufficient while demand growth is limited, so the pig supply - demand remains in a loose pattern, suppressing pig prices. The pig 2511 contract decreased with reduced positions, continuing the weak trend [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for pigs is 12,355 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the main contract position is 61,105 hands, down 14,348 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 27,701 hands, up 1,256 hands; the main basis of live pigs is 245 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of pigs in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 12,600 yuan/ton, 12,200 yuan/ton, and 12,700 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads; CPI month - on - month is - 0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the corn spot price is 2,368.63 yuan/ton, down 0.98 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 883.25, down 5.13; the monthly feed output is 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,548 yuan/head, down 77 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 236.57 yuan/head, down 37.26 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 74.11 yuan/head, down 49.67 yuan; the monthly pork import volume is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, down 1,840,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Industry News - According to Shanghai Ganglian's data, on September 30, 2025, the daily national pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 268,150 heads, a 7.20% drop from the previous day [2] Key Focus - There is no key news today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply glut of industrial silicon has not improved yet. Although there is a production reduction expectation in the southwest region, the supply in the northwest region is stable. The downstream demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries is generally flat, and the industry inventory remains high. Industrial silicon is expected to have no significant changes overall. It is recommended to buy at low prices and observe the production reduction intensity during the dry season after the holiday [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,640 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the position of the main contract is 206,977 lots, down 34,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -51,575 lots, up 9,359 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX are 50,983 lots, up 781 lots; the closing price of the December contract is -400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the difference between the November and December contracts is -400 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygenated 553 silicon is 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 810 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex-factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.59%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons [2] Industry News - At the 2025 Brazil São Paulo Solar Exhibition, TrinaTracker, a Chinese photovoltaic enterprise, announced that it will supply a 130MW Blazer 1P intelligent tracking system for the Colinas project in Pernambuco, Brazil, marking a continuous breakthrough of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises in the Latin American market with the strategy of "global production + local service" [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon has been fluctuating upward this week. There is a production reduction expectation in the southwest region, while the supply in the northwest region is stable. On the demand side, the downstream industries of industrial silicon, including organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy, have a flat overall demand for industrial silicon. The industry inventory remains high, and the digestion of inventory still faces certain pressure [2] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]