Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up. Overseas shipments arriving at the port increased, but downstream tire companies' cautious replenishment limited the port's shipping rate. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies varied last week. The production of semi - steel tire companies that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire companies dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. This week, the production of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,600 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,600 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,395 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 870 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,015 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 149,739 lots, up 1,146 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 65,375 lots, up 42,790 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 28,999 lots, down 2,443 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 10,258 lots, down 4,310 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 187,060 tons, down 1,590 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 36,792 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 155 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,439 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.29 Thai baht/kg, down 0.08 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 61.39 Thai baht/kg, down 0.61 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 16.6 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.55%, down 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.95%, down 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.95%, up 1.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.95%, up 1.61 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, with low precipitation in most other areas, reducing the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southeastern Indonesia, with low precipitation in most other areas, increasing the impact on tapping. As of July 13, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, up 4,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, up 1.66 percentage points month - on - month and down 14.25 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, down 0.42 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.55 percentage points year - on - year [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The current supply and demand in the nickel market are weak. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, and overseas inventory has accumulated again. Technically, the increase in positions and decline in price indicate a strengthening of short - selling forces. It is recommended to short with a light position [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is 15,235 dollars/ton, down 50 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 59,940 hands, down 1,587 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 14,145 hands, down 3,937 hands. LME nickel inventory is 206,580 tons, up 402 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,047 tons, up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,318 tons, up 768 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,296 tons, up 854 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 650 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 202.24 dollars/ton, down 3.99 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 896.49 million tons, up 24.65 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.44 million tons, up 1.85 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. In June, the M2 - M1 gap was 3.7 percentage points, 1.9 percentage points smaller than that in May. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The EU may impose counter - tariff measures on US goods worth about 72 billion euros if the US - EU trade negotiation fails. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources and increases the cost [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Great Beauty Act" and obvious economic stimulus for demand, lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and the annual line pressure still exists. Short - term investors can go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,005 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars [2]. - The spread between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 96,314 lots, up 1,494 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,343 lots, down 289 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 58,768 tons, up 3,638 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,149 tons, up 1,846 tons; the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, up 11,575 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 32.78 dollars/ton, up 0.84 dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,220 yuan, down 100 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 77.87%, down 1.18%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.61 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons [2]. - The monthly import volume of lead ore was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [2]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 10,164.29 yuan/ton, down 3.57 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,735.01 points, up 2.86 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [2]. - In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 6.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; from January to June, the output was 40.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [2]. - In June, the output of primary aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the output was 22.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The supply of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price, and the supply of recycled lead also increased slightly, but the supply increase was limited [2]. - The market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased [2]. - Overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased slightly, mainly due to the obvious price difference between domestic and foreign markets and obvious import processing opportunities. It is expected that the profit margin will decline in the future [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate began to decline, which will have a negative impact on the subsequent output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trading activity and positions in the polysilicon futures market as of July 14, with a slight increase in the main contract price and notable changes in trading volume and positions [1][2] - The main contract for polysilicon closed at 2509, with a price change of +0.99%, and a total trading volume of 82.22 million contracts, which is a decrease of 58.83 million contracts from the previous day [1] - The top 20 positions in the futures market show a net long position with a difference of 17,158 contracts, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders [1] Group 2 - The top three long positions are held by Guotai Junan Futures with a total holding of 33,927 contracts, CITIC Futures with 32,932 contracts, and Zheshang Futures with 25,495 contracts [1] - The top three short positions are held by Guotai Junan Futures with 24,321 contracts, CITIC Futures with 18,709 contracts, and CITIC Jiantou with 17,110 contracts [1] - The article provides detailed changes in positions, with CITIC Futures increasing their long position by 1,890 contracts, while Guotai Junan Futures decreased their long position by 1,234 contracts [1][3]

Group 1 - New Yi Sheng expects a net profit increase of 327.68%-385.47% for the first half of 2025, reaching between 37 billion to 42 billion yuan, driven by growth in AI-related computing power demand and product structure optimization [2][4] - Xinghui Entertainment plans to sell 99.66% of its stake in the Spanish club Espanyol for 1.3 billion euros, with half of the payment in cash and the other half in shares [3] - *ST Yushun intends to acquire 100% of three companies for a total of 33.5 billion yuan, aiming to diversify its business into data center infrastructure services and related products [4] Group 2 - Salted Fish plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.04%, with a major shareholder intending to sell 5,455,572 shares [5] - Lian Microelectronics expects a net loss of approximately 1.21 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [6] - Meinian Health anticipates a net loss of 1.92 billion to 2.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to decline by 0.12%-5.83% [7] Group 3 - Chengdi Xiangjiang forecasts a net profit of 28 million to 42 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 69.29 million yuan in the previous year [8] - Jinpu Titanium plans to acquire 100% of Nanjing Lide Oriental Rubber and Plastic Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [9] - Bohai Leasing expects a net loss of 1.8 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 due to goodwill impairment from a subsidiary's asset sale [10] Group 4 - Foton Motor anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 87.5% for the first half of 2025, reaching about 777 million yuan [11] - Shenwan Hongyuan expects a net profit growth of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [12] - Ganfeng Lithium predicts a net loss of 5.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from a loss of 7.6 billion yuan in the previous year [13] Group 5 - Suzhou Planning intends to acquire 100% of Beijing Dongjin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [14] - Xiangyang Bearing expects a net loss of approximately 13 million yuan for the first half of 2025, slightly worse than the previous year's loss [15] - Tianqi Lithium forecasts a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 5.2 billion yuan in the previous year [16] Group 6 - Shandong Gold anticipates a net profit increase of 84.3%-120.5% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan [17] - Yunnan Geology expects a net profit of 16 million to 23 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [18] - Four-dimensional Map expects a net loss of 319 million to 268 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth of 3.07%-14.30% [19] Group 7 - Tangrenshen anticipates a net loss of 54 million to 69 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year's profit [20] - Changbai Mountain expects a net loss of 2.58 million to 1.58 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue decreasing by approximately 7.48% [21] - Jiu Gui Jiu predicts a net profit of 8 million to 12 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decline of 90.08%-93.39% compared to the previous year [22] Group 8 - Hengsheng Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 251 million yuan [23] - Qixia Construction anticipates a net profit of 5.5 million to 8 million yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions [24] - Poly Development expects a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 27.35 billion yuan [25] Group 9 - Anyuan Coal anticipates a net loss of 259 million to 310 million yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [26] - Zhonghua Equipment plans to acquire 100% of Yiyang Rubber Machine and Beihua Machine, with stock suspension expected for no more than 10 trading days [27] - Bayi Steel expects a net loss of 650 million to 700 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak market conditions [28] Group 10 - Yuegui Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 58.67%-77.12% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 215 million to 240 million yuan [29] - Dalian Friendship expects a net loss of 38 million to 30 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by tax-related issues [30] - Hangfa Power expects a net profit decrease of 84.53%-86.55% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 80 million to 92 million yuan [31] Group 11 - Dongfang Zirconium anticipates a net profit increase of 141.77%-156.80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 25 million to 34 million yuan [32] - Hangzhou Steel expects a net profit decrease of 2% from a major shareholder's planned reduction [33] - Jingao Technology predicts a net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [34] Group 12 - Shanshan Co. expects a net profit increase of 810.41%-1265.61% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 160 million to 240 million yuan [35] - Guocheng Mining anticipates a net profit increase of 1046.75%-1174.69% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 493 million to 548 million yuan [36] - Jindi Group expects a net loss of 3.4 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [37] Group 13 - Founder Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 22.96 billion to 24.32 billion yuan [38] - Hasi Lian expects a net loss of 98 million to 80 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [39] - Lanhua Ketech expects a net profit decrease of 89.12%-92.75% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 60 million yuan [40] Group 14 - Shanxi Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 58.17%-70.72% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 5.04 billion to 5.44 billion yuan [41] - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 3.5 billion to 3.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [42] - Xiangcai Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 63.64%-118.19% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 12 million to 16 million yuan [43] Group 15 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, despite an increase in sales volume [44] - Wentai Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 178%-317% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 390 million to 585 million yuan [45] - Ruida Futures expects a net profit increase of 50.56%-83.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 206 million to 251 million yuan [46] Group 16 - Debang Co. anticipates a net profit decrease of 84.26%-87.86% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 52 million yuan [47] - Jin Yi Culture expects a net loss of 20 million to 32 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [48] - Hongdian Film expects a net profit increase of 103.55%-160.09% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 180 million to 230 million yuan [49] Group 17 - Qiaqia Food anticipates a net profit decrease of 71.05%-76.25% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 80 million to 97.5 million yuan [50] - Guotai Haitong expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [51] - Xining Special Steel expects a net loss of approximately 234 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by low steel prices [52]

1. Core Views - For rapeseed meal, the current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth is "weather - dominated". The reduction of hot weather and beneficial rainfall in the Canadian plains this week bring pressure. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, and the short - term supply is loose, suppressing the price of the rapeseed meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for news on Sino - US trade negotiations. Recently, rapeseed meal has risen and may remain volatile in the short term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, although the production of Malaysian palm oil declines against the seasonal pattern, the unexpected drop in export data makes the MPOB report bearish. High - frequency data shows that the export improvement from July 1 - 10 provides some support, and the rebound of international oil prices also supports the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure. The uncertainty of third - quarter rapeseed purchases and the potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. Affected by the weakening of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil has declined in a volatile manner and may continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9424 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2659 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 683 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.9 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5099 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 81 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 355 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 16649 lots, up 1298 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are 4915 lots, up 6885 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 256301 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 560897 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 sheets, and for rapeseed meal is 12466 sheets [2]. 2.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9650 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 4893.66 yuan/ton, down 30.48 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.69, down 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 171 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 109 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 810 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200 thousand tons, up 50 thousand tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86%, down 2.67 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit is 304 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. 2.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92.9 thousand tons, down 7.2 thousand tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 15.1 thousand tons, up 10.5 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 592.7 thousand tons, down 6.8 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 355.8 thousand tons, down 13.2 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 69 thousand tons, down 3 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 293 thousand tons, down 8 thousand tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 21.1 thousand tons, down 8.9 thousand tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 23.2 thousand tons, down 11.6 thousand tons [2]. 2.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981 thousand tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2]. 2.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.17%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.02%, up 0.56 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.45%, down 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.48%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.49%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.82%, down 2.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.19%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. 2.7 Industry News - On July 11th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the improved weather conditions in the Canadian plains. The most actively traded November rapeseed contract closed down 2.40 Canadian dollars at 682.70 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 2.50 Canadian dollars to 691.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year. The current weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, and the good - to - excellent rate is relatively high. The US tariff issue may damage the downstream demand for US soybeans and restrict the market price [2]. 2.8 Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions released by myagric on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

润改善，后续复产力度有望增加。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，7月房地产数据依旧继续下滑，下游深加 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1241 139 | 24 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 8 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1102 1532487 | 16 27765 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1395908 | -2793 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -411546 | -18978 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -365065 | -34435 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3394 | -70 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 797 | 797 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -45 | -4 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -94 | -10 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -41 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction is the low profit and limited downstream demand. In the short - term, the spot price may remain firm due to the increased non - aluminum procurement enthusiasm, and for the futures, attention should be paid to the pressure around 2600 for SH2509 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2532 yuan/ton, the futures trading volume is 874144 hands with an increase of 283841 hands, and the futures open interest is 237978 hands with a decrease of 14539 hands. The closing prices of the January and May contracts are 2509 yuan/ton and 2564 yuan/ton respectively, and the latter increased by 28 yuan/ton. The net position of the top 20 futures decreased from - 8629 hands to - 2114 hands [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are 840 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region is 2625 yuan/ton, and the basis is 93 yuan/ton with an increase of 26 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest regions are 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are - 550 yuan/ton and - 175 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13020 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3140 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. As of July 10th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.64% compared with the same period last year [1] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, new plants in Central and East China were under maintenance last week, while the load of some plants in South and North China increased, and the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.1% to 80.4%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, with an average profit of 300.3 yuan/ton; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 2.63% to 77.80%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.29% to 59.9% [1] 3.8 Inventory Situation - Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 374,300 tons, with little inventory pressure [1] 3.9 Outlook - The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased, but due to the concentrated maintenance of PVC downstream of liquid chlorine, the backlog of liquid chlorine has led to a deep price inversion and dragged down the chlor - alkali profit, thus restricting the increase in the caustic soda operating rate. This week, there are many plant shutdowns and restarts, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises has decreased. The non - aluminum demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Fundamental factors show that the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad is rising, the processing fee of zinc ore is continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, resulting in a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been widely adjusted, and downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. Overseas, the LME zinc premium has risen, and inventory has continued to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, with a decline in positions, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,738 US dollars/ton, down 39 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 238,274 lots, down 13,815 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 15,052 lots, down 8,302 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 9,171 tons, up 298 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 49,981 tons (weekly), up 4,617 tons, and the LME inventory is 105,250 tons, down 350 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,180 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,850 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 0.36 US dollars/ton, down 5.04 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; according to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production (monthly) is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined zinc is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons, and the export volume of refined zinc is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social inventory of zinc is 72,500 tons (weekly), up 2,700 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons, and the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.95% (daily), up 0.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.95% (daily), up 0.39 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.27% (daily), up 1.64 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.14% (daily), down 0.06 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest tariff measures announced by US President Trump have muddled the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support the interest - rate cut policy strongly advocated by Trump. The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge. In the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to the domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The raw - material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the increase in Indonesian nickel - iron production despite the higher supply cost caused by the PNBP policy. Steel mills are facing greater cost - inversion pressure and are increasing production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further. In the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure. Downstream industries are cautious and pessimistic. The domestic inventory de - stocking is poor, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking effect of subsequent production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected to have short - term volatile adjustments, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, with a change of 5. The 08 - 09 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,072 lots, a decrease of 540. The main - contract position is 66,494 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,051 tons, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The SS main - contract basis is 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units. - The monthly output of medium - and large - sized tractors is 10,400 units, and the monthly output of small tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 行业消息 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that US President Trump's newly announced tariff measures have muddled the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's advocated interest - rate cut policy. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge, and in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the policy implementation intensity and rhythm according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations [2].