研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/12/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,125.00 | +41↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1575943 | -28786↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 40134 | +13027↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | 1 | -10↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 78665 | +8↑ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 152 | -9↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,320.00 | +20↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,405 | +21↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,510.00 | +20↑ 天津 HRB400E 20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Thursday's HC2605 contract rebounded with reduced positions. Macroscopically, the Central Financial Office responded to economic hot - spot issues, and expanding domestic demand is the top - priority task for next year. Consumption should be boosted from both supply and demand sides, and consumption and investment should be coordinated. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased significantly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 74.57%. Terminal demand shrank, and the apparent demand fell below 3 million tons. Overall, the terminal demand for plates declined, but with the rebound of furnace materials and positive macro - expectations, the futures price was supported. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,277 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. - HC main contract position: 1,189,556 lots, down 10,392 lots. - HC contract top 20 net position: 11,975 lots, down 23,488 lots. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: 11 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 131,004 tons, down 300 tons. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 152 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - HC main contract basis: 13 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 796 yuan/wet ton, up 11 yuan. - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 154.2786 million tons, up 1.3152 million tons. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 499,600 tons, up 55,100 tons. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3522 million tons, up 99,700 tons. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1313 million tons, up 14,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 78.61%, down 1.53 percentage points. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 85.9%, down 1.16 percentage points. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 2.9191 million tons, down 168,000 tons. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 74.57%, down 4.29 percentage points. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 834,200 tons, down 6,100 tons. - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 3.073 million tons, down 57,600 tons. - Domestic crude steel output: 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons. - Steel net export volume: 9.48 million tons, up 200,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.5316 million vehicles, up 172,900 vehicles. - Automobile sales: 3.429 million vehicles, up 106,900 vehicles. - Air - conditioner production: 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units. - Household refrigerator production: 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units. - Household washing machine production: 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2]. Industry News - On December 18, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 2.9191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 168,000 tons; factory inventory was 834,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons; social inventory was 3.073 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,600 tons; total inventory was 3.9072 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,700 tons; apparent demand was 2.9828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 136,900 tons. - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 14th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 vehicles, a 24% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in December and a 2% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 22.247 million vehicles, a 5% year - on - year increase [2].

| | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 980.500 | 0.8↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 15521 | +9.00↑ | | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 196,733.00 | -372.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 17,974.00 | -318.00↓ | | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 241,109.00 | -34780.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,571,738.00 | -55330.00↓ | | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 91716 | -6↓ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 912,164 | 240↑ | | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 975.55 | 2.84↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 15,380.00 | 190.00↑ | ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 18, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Egg Industry Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is in a state of game between weak reality and strong expectations The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range震荡 state, and investors can try to go long on far - month contracts with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2,916 yuan/500 kilograms, down 176 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 43,866 lots, down 3,865 lots [2] - The egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 473 yuan/500 kilograms, down 28 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active egg contract is 179,290 lots, up 102,924 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.19 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 272 yuan/500 kilograms, up 276 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 114.24 (with 2015 = 100), down 1.02; the culled laying hen index nationwide is 114.44 (with 2015 = 100), down 10.19 [2] - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/chick, down 0.05 yuan; the new chick index nationwide is 67.09 (with 2015 = 100), down 9.56 [2] - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.36 yuan/hen, down 0.06 yuan [2] - The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 7.94 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan; the culling age of chickens nationwide is 510 days, up 3 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.51 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.9 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.82 yuan/kg, with no change; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, down 0.04 days [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.01 days, down 0.05 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13,394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7,127 tons, up 12 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 6.15 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.86 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.53 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Continuous losses in the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling of old hens. The laying hen inventory has declined slightly, and the market sentiment has improved slightly [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

| 数据指标 项目类别 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | 21,955.00 | +40.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,553.00 | -5.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -105.00 294,165.00 | -10.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) +175.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -128.00 170,112.00 | -10.00↓ -10314.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 73,675.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 258,836.00 | -1119.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | 2,905.50 -99.00 | +23.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） +467.00↑ 沪伦比值 | 519,60 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, the prices of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new - season sugar from Guangxi in sales areas, the competition among the three sugar sources under poor market transactions has a negative impact on prices [2]. - As of the current incomplete statistics, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, 29,000 tons less than the same period last year. 29 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 10 more than the same period last year, and more than half of the sugar mills have started production. Overall, as the new - season sugar - making reaches its peak, supply continues to increase, spot prices weaken, and there is a lack of positive drivers. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 518,010 lots, an increase of 30,075 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 78,980 lots, an increase of 2,578 lots [2]. - The total effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 1,490, unchanged; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,172 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1.48 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840,330 hectares, an increase of 5,240 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 billion tons, an increase of 549,000 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 894,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons [2]. - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 44,800 tons, a decrease of 237,400 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.302 billion tons, a decrease of 903,000 tons [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; the cumulative sugar import volume is 3.9 billion tons, an increase of 740,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 883,000 tons, an increase of 343,900 tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1.0962 billion tons, a decrease of 495,500 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.68%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.67%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.9%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.86%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of November 25, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 194,604 lots, an increase of 6,204 lots from the previous week. The long position was 148,893 lots, a decrease of 1,574 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 343,497 lots, an increase of 4,630 lots from the previous week [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. The decline of the Brazilian real encouraged Brazilian sugar producers to increase exports. The contract closed down 0.06 cents, or 0.40%, at 14.76 cents per pound [2].

研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11325 | -110 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 165734 | -1647 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 823 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -46138 | -91 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12000 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 18, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1126.5, up 6.07%. Coking coal continued its technical rebound. The mine capacity utilization rate has been rising, and the mine - end clean coal inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. The mid - and downstream inventories increased this period. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [2] - On December 18, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1603.5, up 5.39%. There was a second - round price cut on the spot side. The central government plans to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides next year. The coke inventory is moderately weak, and the steel mill inventory increased this period. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1126.50 yuan/ton, up 64.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1603.50 yuan/ton, up 73.00 yuan. - The JM futures contract position was 703005.00 lots, down 5489.00 lots; the J futures contract position was 38997.00 lots, down 2591.00 lots. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 39347.00 lots, up 10104.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was 48.00 lots, down 701.00 lots. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 110.50 yuan/ton, up 19.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 139.50 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 200.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 919.00 yuan/ton, down 51.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 160.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1500.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The JM main contract basis was 483.50 yuan/ton, down 64.50 yuan; the J main contract basis was 171.50 yuan/ton, down 73.00 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.30 million tons per day, down 0.60 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 327.30 million tons per week, down 5.10 million tons. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, down 0.01%; the raw coal output was 42679.30 million tons per month, up 2004.30 million tons. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4405.00 million tons per month, up 231.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 192.70 million tons, up 2.90 million tons. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 481.60 million tons per week, up 11.00 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 248.60 million tons per week, up 2.80 million tons. - The total inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 1037.30 million tons per week, up 28.10 million tons; the inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills across the country was 794.65 million tons per week. - The inventory of coke in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 87.32 million tons per week, up 10.88 million tons; the inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills across the country was 635.28 million tons per week, up 10.03 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - The available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises were 12.82 days per week, down 0.06 days; the available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills were 11.66 days per week, up 0.37 days. - The import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons per month, down 33.04 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 72.00 million tons per month, down 1.00 million tons. - The output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons per month, up 255.59 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.16%, down 0.68%. - The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 44.00 yuan/ton per week, up 14.00 yuan. - The output of coke was 4170.30 million tons per month, down 19.30 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country was 78.61% per week, down 1.53%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.90% per week, down 1.16%. - The crude steel output was 6987.10 million tons per month, down 212.60 million tons. [2] Industry News - In 2025, China's indirect steel exports are estimated to reach about 143 million tons, an increase of 9.5 million tons year - on - year, with a growth rate of about 7%. It is expected to continue to grow in 2026, reaching about 150 million tons, with a growth rate of about 4% - 5%. - From January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 200516 billion yuan, up 0.8% year - on - year; the national general public budget expenditure was 248538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year. - In 2025, the new silicon - iron production capacity was mainly concentrated in Gansu and Inner Mongolia, with 33000 tons put into production in Gansu and 81000 tons in Inner Mongolia, accounting for 1.16% of the total production capacity. In 2026, the silicon - iron production capacity is expected to reach 1041300 tons, with an annual output of 560000 - 570000 tons. - According to the International Energy Agency, global coal demand increased by 0.5% in 2025, reaching a record 8850 million tons, but demand has entered a plateau. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is committed to steady and balanced development across its business segments, particularly in asset management and risk management, through the second half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - As of the first three quarters of 2025, the company's total operating revenue has slightly decreased compared to the same period last year [1] - However, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company has increased by 42.15% year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - The company, Ruida Futures, announced that its stock price has been above 130% of the current conversion price of "Ruida Convertible Bonds" for ten trading days from November 13, 2025, to December 17, 2025, indicating strong market performance [2] - If the stock price remains above 130% of the conversion price for fifteen out of thirty consecutive trading days, it will trigger the conditional redemption clause as stated in the prospectus of the convertible bonds [2] - Upon triggering the conditional redemption clause, the company will convene a board meeting on the triggering date to decide whether to redeem all or part of the unconverted convertible bonds at face value plus accrued interest, and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations promptly [2]