Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Some previously overhauled facilities have resumed operation, leading to a slight increase in domestic urea production. With 2 companies' facilities planned to shut down and 1 shut - down facility possibly resuming production this week, considering short - term malfunctions, the production change is expected to be limited [2] - Recent reserve demand has slowed down, but there is still short - term replenishment demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry is relatively strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to rise steadily [2] - Urea is being shipped to ports in batches, and some enterprises are in the final stage of shipping. Main production and sales areas' mainstream urea factories have slightly accumulated inventory this week, but Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are still showing obvious destocking due to reserve demand from the northwest and northeast. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the short - term order intake of urea factories is good. There is a possibility of further destocking [2] - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1720 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1646 yuan/ton, with a 16 - yuan increase; the 1 - 5 spread is - 37 yuan/ton, with a 6 - yuan increase [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 64839 lots, a decrease of 17154 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 11394, an increase of 3340 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 11202 sheets, a decrease of 12 sheets [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong remain unchanged at 1710 yuan/ton, 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1700 yuan/ton respectively; the price in Anhui is 1660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main ports are 347.5 US dollars/ton and 387.5 US dollars/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the daily urea output is 197900 tons, remaining unchanged [2] - The urea export volume is 120 million tons, a decrease of 17 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6000330 tons, an increase of 129060 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 40.62%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 61.86%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 137 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32200 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] Industry News - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 117.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.45 million tons from last week, a 4.42% decrease. The inventory decline is mainly concentrated in North, Northeast, and Northwest China [2] - As of December 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous period, a 17.14% increase. The current export land collection and port - calling process has slightly accelerated, and some ports have received goods successively [2] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of domestic methanol enterprises may still show a slight accumulation in the short - term. The port inventory of methanol decreased slightly this week. The提货 of the mainstream social warehouses in East China continued well, but the shutdown and maintenance of an olefin plant in Zhejiang continued to affect consumption. In South China, imports and domestic trade vessels continued to replenish, the提货 volume of the main storage areas was acceptable, and the inventory increased slightly. The market should continue to pay attention to the unloading of foreign vessels. - The operation of MTO industry declined. Although the production load of the newly - put - into - operation MTO device of Lianhong Gerun will gradually increase in the short - term, considering the previously shut - down and overhauled devices, the industry operation is still expected to decline. - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2180 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2156 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main methanol contract was 874,732 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 21,895 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 133,848 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts for methanol was 7,709, a week - on - week decrease of 726. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2095 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1955 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 34 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 245 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 253 euros/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 830,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108,200 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 403,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,800 tons. - The import profit of methanol was 7.94 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.42 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.6126 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 185,700 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 352,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 89.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 8.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1%. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 73.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.27%; the operating rate of MTBE was 69.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. - The operating rate of olefins was 89.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1014 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 83 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 0.55%. - The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 17.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 17.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 10.86%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.25%. - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 31,000 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 15,400 tons. - Recently, the production capacity loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was less than the production capacity output due to recovery, and the overall output increased. The operation of inland methanol projects was normal, and the overall supply was abundant. Affected by the previous snowfall and the concentrated return of goods from downstream enterprises during the week, the loading and shipping rhythm of upstream enterprises slowed down. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.68%. The Ningbo Fude plant was under maintenance, and the Qinghai Salt Lake plant was shut down after a short - term start - up, resulting in a decline in the operation of the MTO industry. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and oil mills being shut down, but marginal supply increases with Australian rapeseed arrivals, and there are rumors of increased future supply. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures price may remain weak in the short - term [2]. - The rapeseed oil market has a tightening supply structure due to the failure of China - Canada trade negotiations on rapeseed tariffs and oil mills being shut down, and it will continue the de - stocking mode. However, future supply is expected to increase with Australian rapeseed arrivals and rumors of inquiries for Canadian rapeseed. The ample supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil at a basic level. The rapeseed oil price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed, with the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil down 35 yuan/ton and that of rapeseed meal up 10 yuan/ton. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased, while the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders decreased. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 50, and that of rapeseed meal remained at 0 [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu, average rapeseed oil price, and the import cost of rapeseed decreased. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong increased by 10 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05. The basis of the main rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal contracts increased. The spot prices of substitute products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and soybean meal decreased, and the price differences between rapeseed oil and its substitutes also decreased [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 1.31 million tons. The total monthly rapeseed import volume is 0, a decrease of 11.53 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 39 yuan/ton. The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills increased by 0.1 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil decreased by 2 tons, while the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal increased by 6.29 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal and East China's rapeseed oil inventories decreased, while the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas remained unchanged and that in South China increased. The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil increased by 0.9 tons, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.45 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed decreased by 171.7 tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil decreased by 67.4 tons. The monthly retail sales of catering increased by 690.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal decreased, while the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day for rapeseed meal increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil increased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day for rapeseed oil also increased [2]. Industry News - On December 16, the ICE rapeseed futures continued to decline, with the most actively traded March contract down 4.00 Canadian dollars. During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and the US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. The US soybean futures price has fallen from its high due to China's slowdown in procurement [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The supply of rapeseed meal is tightening domestically, but marginal supply increases with Australian rapeseed arrivals, and future supply is expected to increase. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakened by the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may remain weak in the short - term [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The supply of rapeseed oil is structurally tightening, and it will continue the de - stocking mode. However, future supply is expected to increase. The demand for rapeseed oil is mainly at a basic level due to the substitution of soybean oil. The rapeseed oil price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Spot prices remain low and the breeding end is still in a loss state, with poor replenishment enthusiasm, which is favorable for forward prices. However, the current in - production inventory of laying hens remains high, the elimination of old hens has slowed down slightly, and high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, the near - month contract may be in a wide - range shock state, and it is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3092 yuan/500 kilograms, down 22 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 40001 lots, up 752 lots; the monthly spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of egg futures is - 443 yuan/500 kilograms, down 23 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active egg contract is 76366 lots, down 1830 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.09 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis (spot - futures) is - 4 yuan/500 kilograms, up 22 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 114.24 (with 2015 = 100), down 1.02; the national eliminated laying hen index is 114.44 (with 2015 = 100), down 10.19; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan/chick, down 0.05 yuan; the national new - born chick index is 67.09 (with 2015 = 100), down 9.56; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the breeding profit per laying hen is - 0.36 yuan, down 0.06 yuan; the average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 7.94 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan; the average age of eliminated chickens nationwide is 510 days, up 3 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.43 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.93 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.82 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, down 0.04 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.01 days, down 0.05 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7127 tons, up 12 tons [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.15 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.84 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.53 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens. The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, and the market sentiment has slightly improved [2]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Views Corn - Globally, the U.S. corn is in the export season with high supply pressure, and the global and U.S. corn supply - demand is still relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the U.S. corn's 2025/26 carry - over inventory forecast supports U.S. corn prices [2] - In China's Northeast region, the increased acquisition by reserve warehouses in December supports the market bottom, but high prices limit buyers' enthusiasm, and the release of grain sources due to rumors leads to a price decline In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers' selling enthusiasm increases slightly, and prices fluctuate slightly [2] - Corn futures prices have fallen from high levels recently after an unexpected increase, with high short - term volatility, so it's recommended to wait and see [2] Corn Starch - With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has risen, increasing supply pressure As of December 17, the national corn starch inventory has increased However, the upcoming festivals may boost demand, and the price increase of cassava starch may also increase the demand for corn starch [3] - Affected by the decline in corn prices, corn starch prices have also fallen, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2206 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2512 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 16 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 12 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 988,605 lots, up 543,683 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 132,098 lots, down 5,695 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 96,862 lots, up 6,528 lots; for corn starch: - 33,511 lots, down 193 lots [2] - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 54,440 lots, down 1,790 lots; for corn starch: 2,500 lots, unchanged [2] - CS - C price difference of the main contract: 333 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 436 cents/bu, down 3.5 cents; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly): 1,616,139 contracts, up 13,001 contracts [2] - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn (weekly): 120,900 contracts, up 77,887 contracts [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,350.78 yuan/ton, down 3.14 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - CIF price of imported corn: 2,120.47 yuan/ton, down 2.11 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - International freight of imported corn: 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; basis of the main corn starch contract: 88 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] - Basis of the main corn contract: 144.78 yuan/ton, up 10.86 yuan; price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 466 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Average spot price of wheat: 2,517.78 yuan/ton, down 0.89 yuan; price difference between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly): 725 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2] - Price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 229 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the U.S. (monthly): 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Brazil (monthly): 131 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil (monthly): 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Argentina (monthly): 53 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina (monthly): 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in China (monthly): 295 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in China (monthly): 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Ukraine (monthly): 32 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly): 31.5 tons, down 20.2 tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 294 tons, up 18.6 tons [2] - Corn inventory at northern ports (weekly): 152 tons, down 11 tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 107.4 tons, up 2.5 tons [2] - Monthly import volume of corn: 36 tons, up 30 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 19.17 tons, up 6.39 tons [2] - Monthly feed production: 2,957 tons, down 171.7 tons; processing profit of corn starch in Shandong (daily): - 8 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn (weekly): 29.53 days, up 0.86 days; processing profit of corn starch in Hebei (daily): 74 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 141.67 tons, down 0.09 tons; processing profit of corn starch in Jilin (daily): - 53 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 68.22%, down 2.06%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 62.31%, down 0.53% [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 11.72%, down 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 9.45%, down 0.03% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn (daily): 1.48%, down 7.11%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn (daily): 5.17%, down 3.41% [2] Industry News - On December 16, CGSGB invited bids for the sale of imported corn, with 103,129 tons of 2021 U.S. corn planned for auction, all of which were sold The auction reserve price was 2,000 yuan/ton, the transaction price was 2,070 - 2,085 yuan/ton, and the premium was 70 - 85 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the pressure of MA10. The supply pressure increases as the production profit of stainless steel plants improves and the decline in production is limited. The downstream demand turns to the off - season, the export volume decreases, and the market trading is average. However, the social inventory of stainless steel in the whole country shows a seasonal slight decline, and there is support at the previous low of 13,000 level [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 125 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,103 lots, a decrease of 387 lots. The main contract position is 136,601 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 58,647 tons, a decrease of 1,156 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 115,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 587,700 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 49,0613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - US employment continues to cool, the 12 - month Markit composite PMI hits a six - month low, and the eurozone's 12 - month manufacturing PMI accelerates contraction. The Philippines enters the rainy season, the nickel ore grade declines, and the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tight, but the Indonesian nickel - iron output remains high. Central Financial Office says investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomically, the US added more non - farm jobs than expected in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high, not significantly changing expectations of Fed rate cuts [3] - Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, but overall imports are still low. On the smelting side, raw materials are scarce, and most enterprises' raw material inventories are low, with production expected to be restricted. In terms of imports, Indonesia's exports increased in November, but domestic imports remain unprofitable, and import volumes are expected to stay low. On the demand side, tin prices have recently adjusted, market trading has warmed up, and LME inventories have increased significantly [3] - Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected that Shanghai tin will adjust at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 328,600 yuan/ton, up 7,980 yuan; the closing price of the January - February contract is down 740 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 40,955 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 32,130 lots, down 155 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 498 lots, down 234 lots. LME tin total inventory is 3,815 tons, up 20 tons, and the LME tin cancelled warrants are 155 tons, down 5 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,391 tons, up 526 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt is 7,497 tons, up 34 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 325,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 325,580 yuan/ton, up 7,040 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 120 yuan/ton, up 3,170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 56 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 313,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 317,800 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 208,930 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons, up 14.47 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - US employment continues to cool: non - farm payrolls rebounded slightly in November, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high, and traders expect two rate cuts next year. The "New Fed News Agency" said that the non - farm data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's judgment on whether to cut rates again. The US Markit Composite PMI in December hit a six - month low, with a sharp rise in price indicators and weak employment indicators. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in December contracted at an accelerated pace, with Germany hitting a 10 - month low and France and Italy back in the expansion range. The Central Financial Office said that investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control increments and revitalize stocks [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo wide - range adjustments and suggests paying attention to the support at the 2.28 level [3][4]. - Upstream zinc mine imports have declined due to the deteriorating internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, which has led to increased competition for domestic ore procurement, significant drops in processing fees at home and abroad, and a contraction in smelter profits, with expected significant production decline [3]. - Recently, the London zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, while the automotive sector has some positive factors due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has corrected, the trading atmosphere has improved, the spot premium has remained high and stable, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, LME zinc inventories have increased significantly, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,970 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,035 dollars/ton, down 60 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 194,756 lots, down 12,790 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,722 lots, down 4,540 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 80,577 tons, down 11,339 tons; the LME inventory is 95,550 tons, up 31,075 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,020 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,750 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 50 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 16.47 dollars/ton, up 15.14 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,640 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory is 132,500 tons, down 1,400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, up 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, up 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 16.28%, down 1.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 16.27%, down 1.4 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.23%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.88%, up 0.59 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In the macro - aspect, the US November non - farm payrolls increased more than expected, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high, not significantly changing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US 12 - month Markit composite PMI hit a six - month low, with price indicators rising sharply and employment indicators weak. The eurozone's 12 - month manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction, Germany had its worst performance in 10 months, and France returned to the expansion range [3]. - The central financial office stated that the investment and consumption growth rates are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control the increment and revitalize the stock [3]. - In the fundamental aspect, the upstream zinc ore import volume declined due to the deteriorating internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, leading to increased competition for domestic ore procurement, significant drops in processing fees at home and abroad, and a contraction in smelter profits [3].

国债期货日报 2025/12/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.005 | 0.1% T主力成交量 | 72309 | -4956↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.840 | 0.06% TF主力成交量 | 56518 | -11258↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.434 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | 24444 | -10340↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.140 | 0.63% TL主力成交量 | 126024 | -22833↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.19 | -0.03↓ T03-TL03价差 | -4.14 | -0.65↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | -0.02 | -0.01↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.16 | -0.05↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.00 | +0.00↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract increased in volume and rose. In terms of the macro - situation, the US added 64,000 non - farm payrolls in November 2025, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased simultaneously. With the continuous decline of hot metal production, the iron ore port inventory is expected to continue to increase. Overall, the ports show a trend of inventory accumulation, and the supply is relatively loose. However, the raw material inventory of steel mills is generally at a medium - low level, and there is a certain expectation of buying near the end - of - year winter storage. Coupled with the futures discount to the spot price, it provides support for the futures price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebound upwards. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 768 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 488,996 lots, up 9,427 lots; the spread between the I 1 - 5 contracts is 20.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 8,171 lots, down 7,174 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt of I is 1,400 lots, unchanged; the quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 is 103.55 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 843 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 840 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 752 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 72 yuan, down 6 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 106.20 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.09, down 0.03; the estimated import cost is 862 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 3,592.50, up 224.00; the arrival volume of 47 ports in China (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 2,928.10, up 358.90; the iron ore inventory of 47 ports (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 16,111.47, up 120.36; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 8,834.20, down 150.53; the iron ore import volume (monthly, 10,000 tons) is 11,054.00, down 77.00; the available days of iron ore (weekly, days) is 21.00, up 4; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 37.87, up 0.07; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly, %) is 60.07, up 0.05; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly, 10,000 tons) is 44.97, up 5.41; the BDI index is 2,204.00, up 11.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 25.00 US dollars/ton, up 2.84 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.525 US dollars/ton, down 0.30 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %) is 78.61, down 1.53; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %) is 85.90, down 1.16; the domestic crude steel output (monthly, 10,000 tons) is 6,987, down 213 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily, %) is 12.85, up 0.48; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily, %) is 15.41, up 0.10; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily, %) is 15.96, up 1.37; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily, %) is 15.82, down 0.93 [2] Industry News - On December 15, the total port inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 16,092.66 tons, an increase of 68.68 tons from the previous Monday; the total inventory at 45 ports was 15,382.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33.48 tons. From December 8 to December 14, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.172 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,600 tons, showing a slight decline. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter of this year [2]