白糖产业日报 2025-12-02 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 一定冲击，但价格相对坚挺，给与广西糖价一定支撑。另外市场前期利空基本消化，悲观情绪有所缓和， 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 预计后市糖价震荡为主。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5382 | -23 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 338486 | -12087 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The apple futures price is expected to maintain high - level operation in the short term, and the impact of other substitute fruits should be noted [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,488 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38; the main contract position is 73,846 lots, a decrease of 8,260; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 7,278 lots, a decrease of 417 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.6 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.06 yuan/kg; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons; the weekly storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 54.11%, a decrease of 0.01; the weekly storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 58.44%, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,334,364 million US dollars, a decrease of 503,616 million US dollars; the year - on - year monthly export amount of apples is - 14.3% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale prices of duck pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.71 yuan/kg, 5.37 yuan/kg, and 5.78 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of 0.04 yuan/kg, 0.03 yuan/kg, and 0.22 yuan/kg; the early - morning daily average arrival vehicle numbers in Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets are 16, 19.2, and 25.2 respectively, with changes of 3.8, not provided, and 1.4 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 1.85%, a decrease of 15.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 17.51%, a decrease of 9.27% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The overall apple production area trading is a bit light. In Shandong and Shaanxi, there are few merchants in cold - storage, and most of the small - volume shipments are self - picked by merchants. The inventory apple transfer trading is concentrated in Gansu, where the trading of Huaniu and small fruits is okay and the prices are stable. The trading of late - Fuji apples slows down, and the origin shipments are mainly for packaging pre - ordered goods. As of November 27, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from last week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 54.11%, a decrease of 0.18% from last week; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 58.44%, a decrease of 0.66% from last week. The warehousing work in Shandong is basically over, with a small amount of ground - trading merchants directly shipping to the market, and cold - storage trading starting gradually. The foreign - trade channel continues to look for goods, with small - fruit shipments being the main, and the outbound speed is slightly faster than the same period last year. Shaanxi is gradually shipping out, with Luochuan mainly having merchants packaging their own goods and shipping through their own channels, with a small amount of fruit from fruit farmers being transferred, and the cold - storage trading atmosphere being light [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The I2601 contract reduced positions and consolidated on Tuesday. Although the overall fundamentals of iron ore show a loose supply situation with port inventories turning from decreasing to increasing as molten iron output continues to decline, the positive macro - expectations and the firmness of spot prices still support the futures price. The view is to expect a volatile and bullish trend, with attention to risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 800.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the position volume was 358,611 lots, down 18,063 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 12,183 lots, up 430 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt of I was 1,300 lots, unchanged. The quoted price of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 103.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.23 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 866 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 859 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 761 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 58 yuan, down 1 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 107.35 US dollars/ton, up 1.35 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.07, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 874 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - From November 24 - 30, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3.3232 billion tons, up 447,000 tons week - on - week. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.7658 billion tons, up 1.284 million tons week - on - week. Australia's shipping volume was 1.8205 billion tons, down 191,000 tons, with 1.5911 billion tons shipped to China, up 375,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 945,300 tons, up 147,500 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2.784 billion tons, down 1.555 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2.6993 billion tons, down 1.178 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.4632 billion tons, up 249,000 tons [2] - The 47 - port iron ore inventory was 15.90122 billion tons, up 1.6637 million tons week - on - week; the sample steel mill iron ore inventory was 8.94248 billion tons, down 587,500 tons week - on - week. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11.131 billion tons, down 5.02 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 399,900 tons, down 6,000 tons week - on - week; the operating rate of 266 mines was 63.41%, down 0.59 percentage points week - on - week. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 403,200 tons, down 7,000 tons week - on - week. The BDI index was 2,583, up 23 [2] - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 25.28 US dollars/ton, up 0.19 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 12.075 US dollars/ton, up 0.18 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.07%, down 1.10 percentage points week - on - week; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.96%, down 0.60 percentage points week - on - week. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7.2 billion tons, down 1.49 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.24%, down 0.49 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.90%, down 0.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.76%, down 1.67 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.53%, down 0.89 percentage points [2] Industry News - The China Iron and Steel Association held a symposium on domestic iron ore resource development for the "Iron Resource Development Plan". Vice - President Xia Nong emphasized that domestic mining enterprises should accelerate key iron ore projects [2] View Summary - The view is that the iron ore market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with attention to risk control. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - In early December, the market will remain in a vacuum period of macro data, performance, and policies. Without clear trading guidance, the market is expected to move randomly, and stock index futures will maintain a volatile trend [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Prices - IF main contract (2512) dropped 14.4 to 4535.8, IF next main contract (2603) dropped 16.2 to 4497.0; IH main contract (2512) dropped 11.8 to 2971.4, IH next main contract (2603) dropped 12.0 to 2963.8; IC main contract (2512) dropped 44.6 to 6982.2, IC next main contract (2603) dropped 41.8 to 6809.8; IM main contract (2512) dropped 46.4 to 7239.6, IM next main contract (2603) dropped 43.6 to 7008.0 [2]. Futures Spreads - IF - IH current - month contract spread dropped 4.6 to 1564.4; IC - IF current - month contract spread dropped 29.8 to 2446.4; IM - IC current - month contract spread dropped 1.0 to 257.4; IC - IH current - month contract spread dropped 34.4 to 4010.8; IM - IF current - month contract spread dropped 30.8 to 2703.8; IM - IH current - month contract spread dropped 35.4 to 4268.2 [2]. Futures Term Spreads - IF current - quarter minus current - month dropped 1.6 to - 38.8, IF next - quarter minus current - month dropped 2.6 to - 89; IH current - quarter minus current - month increased 0.4 to - 7.6, IH next - quarter minus current - month dropped 0.4 to - 20; IC current - quarter minus current - month increased 1.4 to - 172.4, IC next - quarter minus current - month increased 6.0 to - 379.6; IM current - quarter minus current - month increased 0.8 to - 231.6, IM next - quarter minus current - month increased 6.0 to - 470.8 [2]. Futures Net Positions - IF top 20 net positions dropped 1801 to - 19,640; IH top 20 net positions increased 18 to - 12,245; IC top 20 net positions dropped 1279 to - 21,928; IM top 20 net positions dropped 3156 to - 33,266 [2]. Spot Prices - CSI 300 dropped 22.2 to 4554.33, IF main contract basis increased 2.6 to - 18.5; SSE 50 dropped 15.2 to 2978.5, IH main contract basis increased 0.2 to - 7.1; CSI 500 dropped 61.5 to 7040.3, IC main contract basis increased 12.1 to - 58.1; CSI 1000 A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) dropped 73.5 to 7313.2, IM main contract basis dropped 2821.83 [2]. Market Sentiment - Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) increased 434.09 to 2297.63; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, billion yuan) increased 1563 to - 3021; main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) dropped from - 31.25 to - 526.51; rising stock ratio (daily, %) dropped 34.06 to 28.27; Shibor (daily, %) dropped 0.005 to 1.302 [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares dropped 3.2 to 3.5; technical analysis dropped 3.4 to 2.8; capital analysis dropped 2.9 to 4.2 [2]. Industry News - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month; composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month [2]. - A - share major indices closed down across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3900 points. Small and medium - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.68%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.69%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell sharply. Over 3700 stocks declined. Most industry sectors fell, with media and non - ferrous metals leading the decline, and the petroleum and petrochemical sector leading the gain [2]. Key Data to Watch - December 2, 18:00, Eurozone November HCPI, core HCPI, unemployment rate - December 3, 21:15, US November ADP employment - December 4, 20:30, US November Challenger job cuts; 21:30, US November 29 weekly initial jobless claims - December 5, 23:00, US November PCE, core PCE [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2200 in the short term. The port inventory has a potential to accumulate due to the expected high volume of incoming vessels, but the unloading time is uncertain as some vessels are affected by cargo quality. The demand side shows that the load of olefin enterprises in East China has increased, and the olefin industry's weekly average operating rate is expected to continue to rise [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2132 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is -100 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 978,569 lots, down 25,153 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -196,042 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 3,800 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2115 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1995 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price spread is 105 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is -17 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 247 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 317 dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton. The price spread between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is -70 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 4.89 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.03 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 93.75 tons, down 8.03 tons; at South China ports, it is 42.6 tons, down 3.55 tons. The methanol import profit is -19.78 yuan/ton, down 3.44 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, up 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 373,700 tons, up 15,000 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.09%, up 0.32% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.98%, up 0.97%; of dimethyl ether, it is 7.88%, up 2.19%; of acetic acid, it is 73.06%, up 3.47%; of MTBE, it is 69.97%. The operating rate of olefins is 89.93%, up 0.28%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is -786 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.87%, down 0.57%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.52%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for methanol is 19.67%, down 0.24% [2] Industry News - As of November 26, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 37.37 tons, up 1.50 tons or 4.19% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, down 1.56 tons or 6.34%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 136.35 tons, down 11.58 tons from the previous period. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 91.01%, up 0.9% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, suggest light - position oscillatory trading, control rhythm and trading risks due to factors like supply and demand changes and technical indicators [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, recommend light - position oscillatory trading, pay attention to rhythm and trading risks considering supply - demand situation and option market sentiment [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, advocate light - position oscillatory trading, control rhythm and trading risks based on raw material supply, supply - demand and technical analysis [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,910 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 75 yuan, up 10 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai aluminum is 258,440 hands, down 7,183 hands. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,888 US dollars/ton, up 23 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 537,900 tons, down 1,150 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.59, down 0.05 [2]. - **Alumina Contracts**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,670 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 85 yuan, up 1 yuan. The main contract position of alumina is 358,708 hands, down 1,212 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Contracts**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 21,095 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 115 yuan, down 60 yuan. The main contract position is 15,759 hands, up 12,052 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,730 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 21,730 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The Shanghai Material Trade aluminum premium/discount is - 60 yuan, unchanged. The LME aluminum premium/discount is - 27.51 US dollars/ton, down 1.56 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Base - related Data**: The base of cast aluminum alloy is 405 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the base of electrolytic aluminum is - 180 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the base of alumina is 100 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Supply - demand**: The monthly output of alumina is 786.50 million tons, down 13.40%. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap Trade**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap is 16,700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. China's import of aluminum scrap and fragments is 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; export is 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: The export of alumina is 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import is 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import of primary aluminum is 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export is 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged. The production of electrolytic aluminum is affected by winter environmental protection and seasonal demand, showing a slight decline [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output of aluminum products is 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons. The export of aluminum alloy is 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Industry**: The monthly output of automobiles is 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 10.66%, down 0.30%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.72%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.04%, up 0.0081. The call - put ratio is 1.69, up 0.0507 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US November ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, below the boom - bust line of 50 for nine consecutive months [2]. - In November, BYD's new - energy vehicle sales were 480,200 units. Zero - Run's total delivery reached 70,327 units, up over 75% year - on - year. Other auto companies also had different sales performances [2]. - French President Macron will visit China from December 3 - 5 [2]. - The production schedule of the three major white - goods in December 2025 is 30.18 million units, down 14.1% compared with the same period last year [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract oscillates downward, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Supply may gradually converge due to profit issues, and demand shows some resilience. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates stronger, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. Supply decreases slightly, and demand has some resilience due to end - of - year factors. The option market sentiment is bullish. Recommend light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract oscillates, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. Supply may decline due to raw material shortage, and demand has some support from end - of - year consumption. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current supply - demand situation in the domestic cotton (yarn) market remains loose. The new cotton delivery is almost finished, but the sales progress is slow, and the port inventory is high. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, with fewer new orders for spinning mills and slower yarn sales. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of actual restocking willingness and macro - dynamics [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,800 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions were - 125,271 lots, down 682 lots; main contract cotton positions were 544,158 lots, down 2785 lots; cotton warehouse receipts were 2499, up 96. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 20,005 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions were - 696 lots, up 215 lots; main contract cotton yarn positions were 5997 lots, down 546 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 14, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 14,980 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 1% tariff - based FCIndexM was 12,956 yuan/ton; the sliding - duty FCIndexM was 13,941 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,984 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,240 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5790 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 785,000 tons, down 76,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the daily profit of imported cotton was 995 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.97 days, up 0.85 days; the monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, down 180 million meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 11003480.43 million US dollars, down 1449766.57 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 11258418.92 million US dollars, down 708097.08 million US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 8.02%, up 0.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 7.91%, up 0.51%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.27%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.32%, down 0.41% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton by national cotton processing enterprises was 19045387 bales, totaling 4.299376 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.72%. The cumulative notarized inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 4.229727 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.93%. ICE cotton futures fell on Monday, with the March contract down 0.08 cents, or 0.12%, to settle at 64.63 cents per pound [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. This week, 4 enterprises' plants are planned to stop, and 4 stopped plants may resume production. Considering short - term malfunctions, production is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - Recently, the procurement of Northeast reserve demand was relatively concentrated, but the procurement volume may slow down after appropriate replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizers increased month - on - month, and enterprises are gradually scheduling winter - storage fertilizer production. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in the short term [3]. - With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing. Due to the continued advancement of reserve demand and the restocking of downstream terminals such as compound fertilizers, the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline. Considering the advancement of reserve demand and partial export shipping expectations, the short - term urea inventory still has a slight de - stocking trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1660 - 1700 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 219,302 lots, down 426 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 22,309 lots, down 1429 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts were 7887 lots, down 50 lots [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1710 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 30 yuan, 20 yuan, 20 yuan, - 10 yuan, and 30 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports were 357.5 US dollars/ton and 397.5 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 7 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [3]. 3.3. Industry Situation - The port inventory was 100,000 tons, with no change; the enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.71%, down 0.2%; the daily urea output was 202,400 tons, down 500 tons; the urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 5,871,270 tons, up 132,600 tons [3]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06%, up 2.45%; the operating rate of melamine was 60.8%, down 1.4%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers was 44 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,500 tons, down 500 tons [3]. 3.5. Industry News - As of November 26, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.10%. As of November 27, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, with no change. The overall port arrival rhythm was slow, and the port inventory may increase after the end of legal inspection. As of November 27, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.417 million tons, down 0.34 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.71%, down 0.20% [3]. 3.6. Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated with an upward bias. The real - estate market declined slightly, but inventory continued to decrease. Overall, the supply and demand of rebar were both weak, but the rebound in the coking coal and coke futures prices supported steel prices, and the macro - economic outlook was positive. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising, but the red bars were shrinking. The reference view was to be bullish on the fluctuations, and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,169.00 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the trading volume of the RB main contract was 1,175,559 lots, up 127,790 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 46,437 lots, up 11,765 lots; the spread between the RB1 - 5 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the SHFE was 65,741 tons, down 4,134 tons; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 153 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou (actual weight), it was 3,415 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,550.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 161.00 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines in Qingdao Port was 798.00 yuan/wet ton, up 5.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - free) was 2,150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,990.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore in 45 ports was 152.0607 million tons, up 1.5519 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants was 449,500 tons, up 16,200 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke in sample steel mills was 6.2553 million tons, up 31,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1476 million tons, down 13,400 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.07%, down 1.10 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.96%, down 0.60 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar in sample steel mills was 2.0608 million tons, down 18,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar in sample steel mills was 45.18%, down 0.41 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.4673 million tons, down 65,900 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8475 million tons, down 152,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 68.75%, down 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude - steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.475 million tons, up 41,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.28 million tons, down 640,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.52939 billion square meters, down 43.59 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing starts was 490.61 million square meters, down 36.62 million square meters; the unsold housing area was 396.45 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, 12 steel projects started or were put into production. Projects such as Xinfeng Steel (Egypt) and Jiangxi Chongxin New Materials started; projects such as Tianjin Decai Cold - rolling, Jiugang Hongyu New Materials, and Yunnan Yukun Iron and Steel were put into production. On December 1st, leading steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton reduction for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton reduction for dry - quenched coke [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 2nd, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1096.5, up 1.86%. After continuous price drops, coking coal and coke saw a technical rebound, driven by basis convergence and improved macro - expectations. Fundamentally, the mine capacity utilization rate declined this period, the refined coal inventory of mines and coal washing plants increased for 4 consecutive weeks, the total inventory was neutral, and the mid - downstream inventory showed a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term oscillating trend [2]. - On December 2nd, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1629.5, up 2.45%. The first round of coke price cut was implemented. Fundamentally, the demand side had a hot metal output of 234.68 (-1.60) tons this period, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term oscillating trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1096.50元/吨，环比上涨3.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1629.50元/吨，环比上涨10.00元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为842409.00手，环比减少9636.00手；J期货合约持仓量为47283.00手，环比减少1696.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 110919.00手，环比减少8149.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为346.00手，环比增加444.00手 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差为83.00元/吨，环比减少7.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为135.00元/吨，环比减少15.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为600.00张，无环比变化；焦炭仓单为2070.00张，无环比变化 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1000.00元/吨，环比上涨26.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1830.00元/吨，环比下降55.00元 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为162.00美元/湿吨，无环比变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比下降50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1510.00元/吨，无环比变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1720.00元/吨，环比下降50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1670.00元/吨，无环比变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比下降50.00元 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1610.00元/吨，无环比变化；J主力合约基差为200.50元/吨，环比下降65.00元 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1350.00元/吨，无环比变化；JM主力合约基差为513.50元/吨，环比下降3.50元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.60万吨，环比减少1.00万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存为305.30万吨，环比增加2.50万吨 [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.36%，环比下降0.01%；原煤产量为40675.00万吨，环比减少475.50万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为4174.00万吨，环比减少426.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.30万吨，环比减少2.10万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为465.00万吨，环比增加8.10万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为247.20万吨，环比减少6.20万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为1010.30万吨，环比减少27.89万吨；全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为801.30万吨，环比减少 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为13.01天，环比增加0.04天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.29天，环比增加0.24天 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 炼焦煤进口量为1059.32万吨，环比减少33.04万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为73.00万吨，环比增加19.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为4231.51万吨，环比增加255.59万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.95%，环比增加1.24% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为46.00元/吨，环比增加27.00元 [2]. - 焦炭产量为4189.60万吨，环比减少66.00万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.07%，环比下降1.10%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为87.96%，环比下降0.60% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 粗钢产量为7199.70万吨，环比减少149.31万吨 [2]. - On December 1st, leading steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton reduction for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton reduction for dry - quenched coke [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in November decreased by 0.5 points to 48.2, remaining below the 50 boom - bust line for nine consecutive months, marking the largest contraction in four months [2]. - Jiang Wei, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, Vice - President and Secretary - General of the China Iron and Steel Association, stated that the total steel demand has entered a downward phase, and the cost pressure is extremely high. The steel industry in China and Hebei should focus on high - end, green, intelligent and integrated development [2]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Liaoning was released, which mentioned strengthening the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, actively promoting the transformation and upgrading of coal - fired power plants and the replacement of scattered coal, and promoting the peak of coal and oil consumption [2].