Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was under pressure, with expectations for a recovery in earnings [1] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong growth in snack wholesale and overseas channels [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 504 million yuan, a decline of 13.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% [4][5] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 35.46%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to promotional activities [5][6] Product and Channel Performance - The comprehensive nuts and bean products segment showed strong performance in 2024, with revenue growth of 39.80% [5] - The company’s revenue from offline channels grew faster than online, with significant contributions from snack wholesale and overseas markets [5] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.609 billion, 3.041 billion, and 3.527 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 16%, 17%, and 16% [7][8] - Net profit projections for the same period are 391 million, 493 million, and 590 million yuan, with growth rates of 4%, 26%, and 20% [7][8] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 17.13 for 2025, decreasing to 11.35 by 2027 [7][9] - The expected ROE for 2025 is 21%, with a gradual increase to 24% by 2027 [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Ganyuan Food's Q1 2025 financial results showed a significant decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to high base effects from the previous year and a contraction in traditional supermarket business [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 504 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.99% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 52.76 million yuan, down 42.21% year-on-year [1]. - The sales net profit margin dropped to 10.47% from around 15% in previous years, with the non-recurring net profit margin falling to 9.09% [4]. Reasons for Performance Decline - Revenue decline was influenced by a significant reduction in low-priced gift box live-streaming during the Spring Festival and a decrease in traditional supermarket business scale [3]. - Increased procurement costs for key raw materials, such as palm oil, led to a gross margin reduction of 1.08% [3]. - Sales expense ratio increased by 4.24 percentage points, and management expense ratio rose by 1.56 percentage points [3]. Market Expansion and New Channels - Ganyuan Food is focusing on expanding into Southeast Asian markets and has initiated a strategy to enhance its export capabilities [4]. - The company has established stable partnerships with various snack retail systems, which include a range of products [5]. - New channels, particularly snack retail stores, are seen as crucial for driving growth, although traditional channels are experiencing a decline [6]. Industry Context - The Chinese snack food market reached a size of 1,124.7 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining rapid growth but facing intense competition [7]. - Competitors like Liuyin Pupu and Three Squirrels have begun price reductions to enhance competitiveness, indicating a challenging market environment [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on profit margins but is expected to benefit from scale effects in the future [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 2.257 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year [4][9] - The report highlights the company's strategies to optimize costs through various measures, including locking in palm oil prices and increasing direct sourcing of key raw materials [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 652 million yuan, a 22% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 14% to 99 million yuan [4] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 504 million yuan, a 14% decrease, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival and a decline in traditional supermarket business [4] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 decreased by 1 percentage point to 35.14% and 34.32%, respectively, mainly due to rising palm oil costs [5] - Selling expenses increased by 2 percentage points in Q4 2024 and 4 percentage points in Q1 2025, attributed to team expansion and increased marketing expenses [5] Product and Channel Growth - The company’s core products, including green peas, sunflower seeds, and broad beans, showed steady growth, with revenues of 524 million, 302 million, and 277 million yuan, respectively [6] - The comprehensive nut and bean product series generated 705 million yuan in revenue, a 40% increase, driven by product expansion and channel diversification [6] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company reported revenue growth in distribution channels, with sales from distributors and other channels increasing by 23% and 65%, respectively [7] - E-commerce revenue for 2024 was 239 million yuan, an 11% increase, with plans to enhance online collaboration for new product validation [8] Earnings Forecast - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.38, 5.13, and 5.89 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 13 times [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The company has reached a profit bottom, with active expansion in overseas markets [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376.19 million yuan, up 14.32% year-on-year [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 13.99% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 42.21% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix and emerging channels, particularly in Southeast Asia, with a significant increase in overseas revenue [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.18% and a net profit of 376.19 million yuan, reflecting a 14.32% increase [4][6] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is 2.655 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 17.63% [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 4.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.18 [4][6] Product and Market Expansion - The company’s product categories, including mixed nuts and beans, showed strong performance, with significant growth in overseas markets [6] - The overseas revenue reached 83.19 million yuan in 2024, a staggering increase of 1761.5% year-on-year [6] - The company has expanded its overseas distributor network to 31, marking a 106.7% increase [6] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 35.46%, a slight decrease of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a gross margin of 34.32%, down 1.07 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs [6] - Sales and management expense ratios increased, reflecting higher costs associated with overseas market expansion and promotional activities [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Views - The company has reached a profit bottom, and is actively expanding into overseas markets [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376.19 million yuan, up 14.32% year-on-year [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 13.99% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 42.21% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix and emerging channels, particularly in Southeast Asia, which has shown significant growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 2,257 million yuan - 2025E: 2,655 million yuan (17.63% YoY growth) - 2026E: 3,051 million yuan (14.91% YoY growth) - 2027E: 3,492 million yuan (14.46% YoY growth) [4][7] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 376.19 million yuan - 2025E: 424.01 million yuan (12.71% YoY growth) - 2026E: 497.60 million yuan (17.36% YoY growth) - 2027E: 571.19 million yuan (14.79% YoY growth) [4][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 4.04 yuan - 2025E: 4.55 yuan - 2026E: 5.34 yuan - 2027E: 6.13 yuan [4][7] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - 2025E: 16.18 - 2026E: 13.79 - 2027E: 12.01 [4][7] Market and Product Insights - The company has seen strong performance in its mixed nuts and bean products, with significant growth in overseas sales, particularly in Southeast Asia [6] - The domestic revenue reached 2.174 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.4% year-on-year, while overseas revenue surged to 83.19 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1761.5% [6] - The company is adjusting its sales strategy to improve margins, particularly in the e-commerce sector, where gross margins have increased [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on profit margins but is expected to benefit from scale effects in the future [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 2.257 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year [4][9] - The report highlights the company's strategies to optimize costs through various measures, including locking in palm oil prices and increasing direct sourcing of key raw materials [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 652 million yuan, a 22% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 14% to 99 million yuan [4] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 504 million yuan, a 14% decrease, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival and a decline in traditional supermarket business [4] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 decreased by 1 percentage point to 35.14% and 34.32%, respectively, mainly due to rising palm oil costs [5] - Selling expenses increased by 2 percentage points in Q4 2024 and 4 percentage points in Q1 2025, attributed to team expansion and increased marketing expenses [5] Product and Channel Growth - The company’s core products, including green peas, sunflower seeds, and broad beans, showed steady growth, with revenues of 524 million, 302 million, and 277 million yuan, respectively [6] - The comprehensive nut and bean product series generated 705 million yuan in revenue, a 40% increase, driven by product expansion and channel diversification [6] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company’s revenue from distribution and other channels reached 1.927 billion yuan and 81 million yuan, respectively, with significant growth in the snack wholesale channel [7] - E-commerce revenue for 2024 was 239 million yuan, an 11% increase, with plans to enhance product offerings and partnerships in 2025 [8] Earnings Forecast - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.38, 5.13, and 5.89 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 13 times [9][11]

Group 1: Ganyuan Food (甘源食品) - Ganyuan Food plans to conduct in-depth research in the Southeast Asian market starting Q4 2024, with an accelerated product export strategy in 2025 [1] - The company is addressing raw material fluctuations through advance reserves, supply chain alternatives, and increasing direct procurement [1] - The growth in accounts receivable is primarily due to the staggered impact of the Spring Festival, leading to increased receivables during peak sales periods [1] - The comprehensive nut and bean snack series growth is attributed to bulk snack channels and overseas markets [1] - A significant promotional effort in Q1 2024 resulted in lower e-commerce gross margins, but gross margins are expected to rise year-on-year in Q1 2025 [1] - Sales expenses in Q1 2025 are expected to increase due to the initiation of the Southeast Asia export strategy, including market research, product design, and new celebrity endorsement fees [1] Group 2: Tianshan Aluminum (天山铝业) - Tianshan Aluminum provided detailed insights on alumina price trends, Indonesian project progress, high-purity aluminum sales, and aluminum foil capacity planning [2] - Alumina prices are expected to rise in 2024, followed by a decline in 2025 due to the release of new capacity [2] - The Indonesian bauxite mine has been successfully delivered, and the alumina project has received environmental approval [2] - High-purity aluminum sales increased by 50% year-on-year, and aluminum foil capacity is gradually expanding [2] - The company aims to maintain a debt-to-asset ratio around 40% and plans to distribute at least 30% of distributable profits as cash dividends over the next three years [2] - The company has set clear carbon emission targets, aiming for a 13.5% reduction in energy consumption per unit of output and an 18% reduction in CO2 emissions per unit product by the end of 2025 [2] Group 3: Longhua New Materials (隆华新材) - Longhua New Materials specializes in the large-scale production of polyether polyols and polyamide resins, focusing on high-performance and environmentally friendly new materials [3] - The company expects total revenue of approximately 5.62 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.01%, while net profit is projected to decline by 30.90% [3] - In Q1 2025, the company anticipates revenue of approximately 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.52%, with net profit expected to rise by 19.52% [3] - The polyether industry is in a mature phase with broad market applications, and the company has developed proprietary production processes and equipment [3] - Ongoing projects include a 330,000-ton polyether polyol expansion and the first phase of a nylon 66 project with a production capacity of 40,000 tons [3] - The company has a minimal direct export volume to the U.S. and plans to implement measures to address complex external environments [3]

Group 1: Ganyuan Food - Ganyuan Food plans to conduct in-depth research in the Southeast Asian market starting in Q4 2024, with an accelerated product export strategy in 2025 [1] - The company is addressing raw material fluctuations through advance reserves, supply chain alternatives, and increasing direct procurement [1] - The growth in accounts receivable is primarily due to the staggered impact of the Spring Festival, leading to increased receivables during peak sales periods [1] - The growth of mixed nuts and bean snacks is attributed to bulk snack channels and overseas markets [1] - A significant promotional effort in Q1 2024 resulted in lower e-commerce gross margins, but gross margins are expected to rise year-on-year in Q1 2025 [1] - Sales expenses in Q1 2025 are expected to increase due to the initiation of the Southeast Asia export strategy, including market research, product design, sales personnel costs, and new celebrity endorsement fees [1] Group 2: Lepu Medical - Lepu Medical is optimistic about future profit growth from structural heart, dermatology, and neuro-regulation businesses [2] - The company has set profit margin assessments for each business segment and is controlling costs to maintain healthy cash flow [2] - The trend of centralized procurement may moderate, with significant regional differences across provinces [2] - The impact of US-China tariffs on the company is limited, and the domestic substitution process for some products may accelerate [2] - The promotion of new cardiovascular interventional products is progressing smoothly, with a sales target for coronary interventional business set for a 10% year-on-year increase [2] - The non-invasive blood glucose meter is undergoing further testing, and the candidate drug MWN101 has completed Phase II clinical trials [2] - The brain-computer interface business is in the incubation stage, and the market share of coronary stents has not met expectations, prompting increased focus on this area [2] - The AI business will increasingly integrate with hardware devices, and opportunities exist for DSA product promotion amid US-China trade tensions [2] - The company is placing greater emphasis on the neuro-regulation pipeline due to competition in the cardiac electrophysiology sector [2] - The TAVR product aims to enhance its popularity through reasonable pricing [2] Group 3: Baike Biotech - Baike Biotech experienced significant declines in performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with decreases of 32.64% and 39.96% respectively, primarily due to the impact on shingles vaccine sales [3] - The company plans to enhance market awareness of the shingles vaccine through various methods while maintaining its position in the chickenpox vaccine market and expanding into international markets [3] - In terms of R&D, multiple projects have made progress, including liquid nasal spray flu vaccines and rabies monoclonal antibodies [3] - The company anticipates an increase in R&D investment and sales expense ratios in 2025, followed by a gradual decline [3]

证券代码：002991 证券简称：甘源食品 甘源食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-002 投资者 关系活 动类别 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 √业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 参与单 位名称 线上参与 2024 年度暨 2025 年第一季度业绩说明会的全体投资者 时间 2025 年 4 月 21 日（星期一） 15:00-16:00 地点 价值在线（https://www.ir-online.cn/）网络互动 公司接 待人员 姓名 董事长、总经理、董事 严斌生先生 董事会秘书 张婷女士 财务总监、董事 涂文莉女士 独立董事 汤正梅女士 形式 网络线上 投资者 关系活 动主要 内容介 绍 提问与回答环节 问：请问一下，我们公司目前在海外的业务经营状况，以及未来有没有什么扩 大海外经营的计划？ 答:尊敬的投资者，您好！公司目前以东南亚市场为切入点开拓海外市场。公 司于 2024 年四季度起，陆续在印尼、马来西亚等国家进行了深入的市场调研， 了解目标国家的文化习俗、消费者偏好以及热销零食的情况。为了更好地满足 当地市场需求，由产品经理对海外产品进行本土化 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 食品饮料 2025 年 04 月 21 日 甘源食品 (002991) —— 经营阶段性承压 关注新品及海外拓展 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 73.60 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 95.98/47.54 | | 市净率 | 3.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.45 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 3,657 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,291.43/9,905.53 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 18.96 | | 资产负债率% | 18.86 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 93/50 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-22 05-22 06-22 07-22 08-22 09-22 10-22 11-22 12-22 0 ...