Core Insights - The report highlights the contrasting trading strategies of long-term fund managers compared to the overall public fund adjustments in Q4 2025, indicating a unique approach to navigating the structural market conditions [1] Fund Manager Adjustments - In Q4 2025, Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) became the largest holding for public funds, with an increase of over 22 billion yuan, while many long-term fund managers chose to reduce their positions in this stock by over 40% [2] - Similar trends were observed with Xinyisheng (300502), where public funds increased holdings by over 9 billion yuan, yet long-term fund manager Yang Dong reduced his position by over 40% [3] Divergence in Stock Adjustments - There were notable differences among long-term fund managers regarding their adjustments in Xinyisheng, with some increasing their positions while others significantly reduced theirs [3] - Industrial Fulian (601138) exited the top ten holdings for public funds, while some fund managers drastically reduced their positions, with reductions exceeding 80% [3] - In contrast, Zijin Mining (601899) and Shengyi Technology (600183) saw overall increases in public fund holdings, but individual fund managers had varying strategies, with some increasing and others decreasing their stakes [3] Position Management - Many long-term fund managers opted to lower their stock positions in Q4 2025, with significant reductions noted, such as a drop from 78.70% to 62.74% in one fund [4] - Other funds also reported reductions in stock positions ranging from 1% to 10% [4] Portfolio Diversification - Long-term funds generally maintained a high concentration in their top ten holdings, but there was a noticeable decrease in concentration compared to Q3 2025, with some funds seeing reductions of over 25 percentage points [5][6] - The focus of many fund managers shifted towards diversified sectors, including AI, cyclical industries, and consumer sectors, indicating a broader investment strategy [6] Sector Focus - The cyclical sector became a popular area for public fund increases, with significant investments in non-ferrous metals and chemicals [7] - Consumer and social service sectors also saw increased attention from fund managers, with notable additions to top holdings in these areas [8] Major Changes in Top Holdings - Several funds underwent significant changes in their top ten holdings, with multiple stocks being replaced, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [9] Outlook for 2026 - Fund managers expressed optimism for the A-share market in 2026, anticipating a potential upward trend driven by multiple positive factors [10] - AI applications are expected to be a core focus, with varying strategies among fund managers regarding their investment in AI-related sectors [11] - The cyclical sector is recognized for its investment potential, with expectations of improved performance in related industries [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the contrasting trading strategies of long-term fund managers compared to the overall public fund adjustments in Q4 2025, indicating a divergence in stock selection amidst a volatile market environment [1][2]. Fund Manager Adjustments - In Q4 2025, Zhongji Xuchuang replaced Ningde Times as the top holding for public funds, with an increase in market value exceeding 22 billion yuan. However, several long-term fund managers chose to reduce their positions in Zhongji Xuchuang, with reductions exceeding 40% by managers like Mo Haibo and Shen Ai Qian [1][2]. - Similar trends were observed with another popular stock, Xinyi Semiconductor, where public funds increased holdings by over 9 billion yuan, yet long-term fund manager Yang Dong reduced his position by over 40% [2]. - Notably, Industrial Fulian exited the top ten holdings for public funds, while some long-term managers like Liu Yuanhai increased their positions, showcasing differing strategies among fund managers [3]. Portfolio Management - Many long-term fund managers opted to lower their stock positions in Q4 2025, aligning with the overall trend of reduced stock allocations in public funds. For instance, the stock allocation of Mo Haibo's fund dropped from 85.20% to 71.92%, a decrease of approximately 13 percentage points [4]. - The concentration of holdings among long-term funds remained high, with many funds having over 50% of their net asset value in the top ten holdings, although some funds showed a noticeable decrease in concentration compared to Q3 2025 [5]. Sector Allocation - Fund managers displayed a diversified approach in their sector allocations, favoring areas such as AI, cyclical stocks, and consumer sectors. For example, Yang Dong's fund gained excess returns by focusing on AI and robotics, while Liu Yuanhai's fund adjusted its AI allocations during Q4 2025 [6][7]. - The cyclical sector gained traction among fund managers, with significant investments in non-ferrous metals and chemicals. For instance, Li You's fund made substantial increases in holdings of companies like Zijin Mining and Yun Aluminum [6][9]. - In the consumer and social services sectors, managers like Mo Haibo and Miao Weibin focused on domestic demand-related stocks, indicating a strategic shift towards consumer resilience and emerging consumption trends [6][9]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, long-term fund managers maintain an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, anticipating a potential upward trend driven by multiple positive factors, including corporate earnings recovery and improved liquidity [7][8]. - The AI sector remains a focal point, with managers emphasizing the importance of AI applications over hardware, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards practical applications of AI technology [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that foreign public funds have significantly increased their investments in China's technology sector, with many products achieving over 50% net value growth in 2025, driven by a focus on leading tech companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Hanwha, and Xinyisheng [1][2] - In 2025, several foreign public fund products, such as BlackRock Advanced Manufacturing One-Year Holding Mixed A and Allianz China Select Mixed A, reported net value growth rates exceeding 50%, despite a fourth-quarter pullback in A-share tech growth stocks [2][3] - Foreign public funds maintained a "neutral to high" position in the fourth quarter of 2025, focusing on technology sectors including AI, high-end manufacturing, and low-carbon growth [3] Group 2 - Foreign public funds are optimistic about the A-share market for 2026, believing that high-quality tech assets will continue to lead, with a preference for "overweight equities" in their portfolio strategies [4] - Fund managers from Allianz and BlackRock expressed that A-shares are more attractive compared to RMB bonds, indicating a sustained focus on equities while dynamically adjusting their overweight positions based on market conditions [4] - The emphasis on technology assets as a core investment theme is expected to yield significant excess returns in 2026, as foreign public funds increase their allocation to Chinese tech assets [4]

■记者观察 对于资本市场来说，资金更愿意为未来买单，资本始终追逐着最具想象力的增长故事。过去几年来，宁 德时代多次成为公募基金头号重仓股，对应着新能源产业成为经济增长的新引擎。如今中际旭创的登 顶，标志着AI已从概念走向产业核心，正在成为驱动经济增长的新动能。 本质而言，每一次重仓股结构的重大调整，背后都是主导产业动能的切换，也是经济增长引擎的迭代。 中际旭创的登顶，标志着始于2023年的全球AI浪潮，已经从主题炒作、预期博弈，进入了以扎实业绩 和清晰产业趋势为支撑的"基本面投资"阶段。从某种程度看，公募基金以总计1190只产品、784亿元持 仓市值的集体选择，用真金白银下注，或许存在部分泡沫，但更多是对一条高景气、高增长黄金赛道的 集体确认，也宣告一个以人工智能为核心驱动力的新经济周期已然来临。 同AI概念股备受追捧形成鲜明对比的，是不少传统资产的黯淡。曾几何时，"喝酒吃药"是基金获取稳定 超额收益的不二法门，贵州茅台长期占据重仓股榜单前列。但在最新的基金前50大重仓股名单中，传统 定义的消费医药公司仅有11家上榜。在基金重仓股名单的更迭背后，则是宏观经济环境、产业生命周期 与投资者预期的深刻变化。在经济增 ...

Group 1 - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] - The report indicates that the communication sector's fund holdings have continued to rise quarter-on-quarter, with a notable increase in the allocation towards optical modules in Q4 2025 [6][20] - The communication sector's PE-TTM as of December 31, 2025, is 49.5 times, ranking it 7th among all Shenwan first-level industry indices, with a slight increase compared to the previous quarter [14][20] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, the total market value of fund holdings in the communication sector reached 186.39 billion CNY, an increase of 23.88 billion CNY from Q3 2025, marking the highest proportion of fund stock holdings in four years at 9.5% [23][25] - The report highlights a significant trend of increasing fund concentration in optical modules, with major holdings in companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [28][31] - The report notes a shift in fund strategies, with increased holdings in China Telecom (H shares) and a reduction in holdings of telecom equipment manufacturers like Zhongtian Technology and ZTE [46][54]

Group 1 - The QDII funds have shown impressive performance since 2025, with an average net value increase of 27.9%, particularly driven by funds heavily invested in Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - Notable funds such as Huatai-PB Korea Semiconductor ETF and E Fund Global Growth Select Mixed A have seen net value increases of 127.55% and 102.91% respectively, with several other funds also exceeding 80% growth [2] - The top holdings of these high-performing funds predominantly include Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical stocks, with examples like Kelun-Botai Biotech and Innovent Biologics among the top five holdings of Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Select Mixed A [2] Group 2 - The technology sector is also a key focus for many high-performing products, with E Fund Global Growth Select Mixed A holding major global tech stocks such as TSMC and Google-A among its top ten holdings [3] - Fund managers express optimism for the future of the innovative pharmaceutical and technology sectors, citing a recent phase of adjustment in the innovative drug industry as a temporary market sentiment issue rather than a fundamental change [4][5] - The innovative drug sector's valuation has become attractive, with expectations of upward potential, and the industry is anticipated to show resilience and technological attributes over the next 2 to 3 years [5] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see positive changes in 2026, with contract development organizations (CXO) gaining confidence from solid data, and new technologies like artificial intelligence and brain-machine interfaces opening new application scenarios [5] - The semiconductor sector, particularly in storage, is projected to continue its cycle, with local market trends favoring leading storage manufacturers and potential IPOs supporting capacity expansion [6]

Core Insights - The public fund industry in China achieved a record profit of 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025, recovering from a cumulative loss of 1.87 trillion yuan from 2022 to 2023 [1][2] - Despite a loss of approximately 110 billion yuan in Q4 2025, the overall annual performance marked a significant recovery for the industry [2][3] Fund Performance - In Q4 2025, public funds reported a total loss of 1,097.65 billion yuan, ending a streak of seven consecutive profitable quarters [2][3] - Equity funds were the hardest hit, with a combined loss of 1,306.91 billion yuan in Q4, while mixed funds lost 499.56 billion yuan [3][4] - For the entire year, equity funds still managed to generate a profit of 1.99 trillion yuan, despite the Q4 downturn [4] Product Categories - QDII funds and FOF funds also faced losses in Q4, amounting to 710.47 billion yuan and 2.12 billion yuan respectively, but ended the year with profits of 1,125.22 billion yuan and 186.38 billion yuan [4] - Fixed-income products, including bond and money market funds, contributed significantly to profits, with bond funds earning 580.81 billion yuan and money market funds 443.13 billion yuan [4] Fund Company Performance - Among 167 fund companies, 108 reported positive profits, with over 60% achieving profitability [5] - Notable performers included Guotou Ruijin Fund, which led the industry with a profit of 72.82 billion yuan [5] Stock Holdings Adjustments - Public funds increased their holdings in 83 new stocks by the end of Q4 2025, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [7] - Ningde Times remained the top holding stock, despite a reduction of 1,993 million shares, while Zhongji Xuchuang became the most held stock among active funds [10][11] Sector Focus - The communication sector, particularly in optical modules, saw increased institutional investment, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinye Technology becoming top holdings [10] - The top three sectors for public fund investments were electronics, power equipment, and communication, with significant capital allocated to these areas [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical module sector, specifically recommending Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [11]. Core Insights - The optical communication market is currently influenced by three cyclical forces: supply-demand cycle, chip structure, and performance cycle, with the chip cycle being the dominant force at this time [2][21]. - Demand for optical modules remains robust, driven by increased capital expenditures from major North American cloud providers, which are projected to exceed $380 billion by 2025 [3][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the supply chain, noting that leading companies have stronger delivery capabilities due to their scale and technological advantages [3][22]. - The report highlights a rebalancing of chip structures, where previously concentrated holdings are becoming more diversified, which is expected to create a healthier market environment [4][23]. - The performance cycle is seen as a dynamic measure of relative value among companies, with ongoing fluctuations in market expectations reflected in the valuation ratios of leading firms [5][24]. Summary by Sections Supply-Demand Cycle - The demand for optical modules is strong, with major cloud companies increasing their capital expenditures [3][22]. - Leading firms are expanding their production capacity and have better supply chain control, ensuring stable delivery amid high demand [3][22]. Chip Cycle - The market has seen a shift from consensus to overcrowding, with leading optical module companies becoming heavily weighted in institutional portfolios [4][23]. - A rebalancing of holdings is occurring, which, while causing short-term price pressure, is setting the stage for a healthier market [4][23]. Performance Cycle - The relative valuation between companies, such as the market cap ratio of Xinyi Sheng to Zhongji Xuchuang, provides insights into market expectations and company performance [5][24]. - The report suggests that as long as the underlying demand and technological advancements remain strong, fluctuations among leading companies will present structural investment opportunities [8][28]. Recommendations - The report continues to recommend investments in the optical module sector, particularly in companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, as well as other related firms in the computing and cooling sectors [9][14].

个股方面，本周中国平安、美的集团、海光信息、寒武纪-U、赣锋锂业获主力净流入居前，均超10亿 元；净流出方面，三花智控、中际旭创、香农芯创遭主力净流出居前，分别为61.4亿元、49.88亿元、 41.69亿元。 按申万一级行业来看，本周银行、非银金融、有色金属、煤炭、石油石化五大行业获得主力资金青睐， 其中，银行业获主力净流入47.52亿元；在净流出方面，电子、通信、计算机、电力设备、机械设备行 业均遭抛售超百亿元。 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 1 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公募基金四季报是否会影响我们对 市场和板块的判断？ ——公募基金 25 年 Q4 配置分析 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | 010-59136616 | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郑恺 | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 杨清源 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525080001 | | yangqingyuan@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，杨清源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [联系人： Table_Contac毕露露 ts] 1860044269 ...