证券研究报告 汽车 | 乘用车 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 i6 及 L 系列改款有望助力 2026 年公司国内销量增长，公司亦加快出口布局。1、国 内：1）截至 11 月 1 日，i6 订单已超过 7 万辆，截至 10 月累计交付约 6 千辆，从 11 月起，为解决产能爬坡问题，i6 电池将启用双供应商模式，预计明年年初 i6 月产 能将稳步提升到 2 万辆。2）此外，公司预计明年还将推出增程 L 系列大改款，①会 回归精简的 SKU 模式，兼顾市场的覆盖和供应的效率。希望实现核心体验全系拉满， 彻底消除入门版体验打折的痛点；②设计方面，会延续家族的经典设计基因，同时 强化豪华质感的升级，平衡品牌的高辨识度以及用户体验的新鲜感，打造更加贴合 家庭需求的产品形态；③技术方面，全系会标配 5C 超充技术，能和现在的纯电超充 网络更好协同，更好地解决补能的焦虑。2、出口：理想增程系列车型亦正加快出海， 10 月公司在乌兹别克斯坦开设了海外首家授权零售中心，面向当地市场销售理想 L9、L7 和 L6，11 月哈萨克斯坦的两家零售中心也将陆续开业。公司会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the management philosophy of Li Xiang, founder of Li Auto, emphasizing the "Founder Mode" as defined by Paul Graham, which advocates for deep founder involvement in core business operations and breaking hierarchical structures [6][8][11]. Group 1: Founder Mode vs. Manager Mode - Paul Graham's "Founder Mode" contrasts with the traditional "Manager Mode," advocating for founders to engage directly in business details and decision-making rather than relying solely on hired managers [11][16]. - Li Xiang's management style reflects the "Founder Mode," focusing on direct communication, user value, and rejecting the rigidity of professional manager systems [19][20]. - The article highlights that the "Founder Mode" is particularly suited for rapidly changing industries like electric vehicles, where quick decision-making is crucial for survival [20][26]. Group 2: Li Auto's Management Practices - Li Xiang is known for his extreme product obsession, directly managing product definitions and details, which exemplifies the "Founder Mode" [19]. - The organizational structure at Li Auto is designed to be flat and efficient, allowing for direct access to core business areas, contrasting with traditional hierarchical models [19][20]. - Li Auto's approach includes acknowledging mistakes and quickly correcting course, a trait often lacking in professional managers who may hide errors to protect their positions [20]. Group 3: Challenges of Founder Mode - The article discusses potential challenges of the "Founder Mode," including the risk of founder burnout and the lack of decision-making training for middle management [20][24]. - It notes that while the "Founder Mode" can drive innovation, it may also lead to instability if the founder's vision is flawed or if they are unable to delegate effectively [20][24]. - The historical context of management evolution is provided, indicating that the shift from founder-led to professional management was necessary for handling organizational complexity as companies grew [21][23]. Group 4: Digital Transformation and Future Outlook - The article concludes with a call for Li Auto to leverage digital transformation tools to support Li Xiang's comprehensive management approach, suggesting that technology can enhance the effectiveness of the "Founder Mode" [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company faced significant challenges in Q3 due to a decline in sales and the Mega recall, resulting in a quarterly loss. Q3 sales were 93,200 units, down 39% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, with revenue decreasing 36% year-on-year to 27.4 billion yuan [1]. - The company is shifting back to a startup management model, focusing on user value and efficiency, while also planning to launch an AI system based on its self-developed M100 chip by 2026 [2]. - The i6 model is expected to alleviate supply chain capacity constraints, with production capacity projected to reach 20,000 units per month by early 2026 [3]. Financial Summary - Q3 gross margin was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the Mega recall costs and increased unit manufacturing costs [1]. - The company forecasts Q4 vehicle deliveries between 100,000 and 110,000 units, with revenue expected to be between 26.5 billion and 29.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.2% to 40.1% [1]. - For the years 2025-2027, the company anticipates sales of approximately 410,000, 590,000, and 700,000 units, with total revenues reaching 112.2 billion, 148.3 billion, and 182.4 billion yuan respectively [3]. Financial Metrics - The company reported a net loss of 625 million yuan in Q3, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 360 million yuan, translating to a Non-GAAP net loss margin of 1.3% [1]. - The projected GAAP net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 1.1 billion, 5.3 billion, and 8.1 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit margins of 1.0%, 3.5%, and 4.4% [3]. - The report indicates a target market capitalization of 163.1 billion yuan, with a target price of approximately 84 HKD per share [3].

2025年11月29日理想整车电动产品负责人唐华寅表示已经有国际大牌碳化硅芯片供应商和理想研发团 队联系获取技术IP和合作机会。 理想碳化硅芯片 用户价值： 1.自研电机/碳化硅电控系统/碳化硅芯片带来30公里续航提升。 2.支持整车高压网络从400V平台向更高的800V电压平台转变，达成更快的充电速度。 3.更快的开关速度支持了更精细的电机电流控制，降低了电磁噪声，提升了驾乘静谧性 。 4.碳化硅功率模块像车辆动力系统的心脏，通过它，电驱动系统将电池提供的直流电转变为电机所需 的交流电，从而输出动力。 行业因电流能力不足，为了降低通道电阻，选择浅PN结设计，导致极限工况下脆弱 。得益于电流能 力的富余，理想采用2倍能量注入的超深PN结，面对1000安培短路电流也能稳健夹断，测试通过率超 99.9% 。 行业为了压榨性能，不得不追求极致的光刻线宽，导致工艺容错率极低 。理想依靠元胞架 构的高通道优势，不再依赖极限线宽，将工艺制造窗口扩大了50%，显著提升了可制造性与良品率 。 5.耐压高、导热好、损耗低，显著减少电驱动系统的重量、体积。（从而有可以把省下来的重量体积 给其他配置） 6.基于长期大量测试数据，较 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto has announced a special repurchase policy and tax incentives for first-time car owners, aiming to enhance customer loyalty and stimulate new vehicle sales before December 31, 2025 [1] Summary by Category Repurchase Policy - First-time owners of Li Auto vehicles can enjoy differentiated benefits when purchasing new cars before December 31, 2025 [1] - Owners of the 2020 models of Li ONE will receive a CNY 10,000 reduction on the final payment for repurchase [1] - Owners of the 2020 and 2021 models of Li ONE can transfer their original vehicle warranty to the new car and receive 30,000 points [1] - Owners of L series, MEGA, and i series vehicles will receive 30,000 points upon repurchase [1] Cash Discounts - For the repurchase of the i8 model, owners of the 2020 Li ONE will receive a CNY 10,000 reduction on the final payment [1] - Owners of the 2020 and 2021 Li ONE can transfer warranty rights and receive a CNY 10,000 cash discount [1] - Owners of L series, MEGA, and i series vehicles will also receive a CNY 10,000 cash discount for repurchasing the i8 model [1]

Core Points - Li Auto has issued an apology to users regarding the delayed delivery of some i6 models due to fluctuations in the supply of core components [1][3] - The company is actively working with its supply chain to expedite production scheduling and aims to achieve timely vehicle deliveries [3] User Care Policy - Li Auto announced a user care policy that provides compensation for users affected by delivery delays, offering 600 points per day (equivalent to 60 yuan per day) for those whose deliveries were delayed due to company reasons [3] - This compensation policy is retroactively applicable to users who have already received their vehicles [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant changes at Li Auto following its Q3 financial report, highlighting CEO Li Xiang's admission of mistakes in the company's management approach and the decision to revert to a startup model from a professional manager system [3][4]. Group 1: Management Changes - CEO Li Xiang publicly acknowledged the failure of the professional manager system implemented over the past three years and announced a return to a startup model starting Q4 [3]. - The shift aims to eliminate redundant processes, shorten decision-making chains, and focus on user value rather than merely meeting mechanical targets [3][8]. - Li Auto has integrated its previously separate "Organization Department" and "Human Resources Department" into a unified HR department, signaling a return of core personnel authority to the founder [4]. Group 2: Departure of Huawei Executives - The departure of key executives from Huawei, including Li Wen Zhi and Yuan Chun Feng, marks the end of the management team that was brought in to implement the "learn from Huawei" strategy [5]. - This exodus reflects the broader organizational adjustments as Li Auto moves away from the Huawei-inspired management structure [5]. Group 3: Issues with Huawei's Management Model - The PBC (Performance-Based Compensation) model adopted from Huawei has been criticized for creating a toxic competitive environment, leading to issues such as cross-region order stealing and violations of commission rules [6]. - The overemphasis on sales metrics resulted in strategic misjudgments in the electric vehicle sector, prompting Li Auto to abandon the PBC model in favor of the previously used OKR (Objectives and Key Results) system [6]. Group 4: Historical Context - Li Auto's attempt to emulate Huawei began in late 2022 during a period of rapid expansion, driven by the need to address management deficiencies [8]. - The return to a startup management style is seen as a necessary adjustment, with Li Xiang citing that even leading companies like Nvidia and Tesla operate under similar models [8].

Core Viewpoint - US Tiger Securities has lowered its price target on Li Auto to $24 from $28 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting concerns over recent performance and strategic adjustments [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Li Auto's deliveries fell 39% year-over-year to 93,211 units due to supply-chain constraints, a product-mix transition, and the impact of the MEGA recall [1] - Revenue dropped 36% year-over-year to RMB 27.4 billion, with gross margin contracting to 16.3%, or 20.4% excluding recall effects [1] Group 2: Strategic Outlook - The recent quarter is viewed as a "strategic reset," with positive signals noted in Li Auto's BEV strategy, expanding product pipeline, and improving AI capabilities [2] - Management has announced a return to a more entrepreneurial operating model, which is expected to enhance execution speed and product-cycle discipline into 2026 [2]

Core Insights - Li Auto reported Q3 2025 revenue of 27.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 36.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.5% [1] - Vehicle sales revenue was 25.87 billion yuan, down 37.4% year-on-year and 10.4% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company recorded a net loss of 620 million yuan, with Non-GAAP net profit at -360 million yuan, marking a shift to loss compared to previous periods [1] Financial Performance - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Automotive sales gross margin was 15.5%, reflecting a decrease of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The decline in gross margin was primarily due to increased unit manufacturing costs from the MEGA recall and reduced production [1] Cost Management - R&D expenses for Q3 2025 were 2.97 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year and 5.8% quarter-on-quarter, driven by new model project timelines and increased product and technology costs [1] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses were 2.77 billion yuan, down 17.6% year-on-year but up 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] Sales and Production - The company achieved wholesale sales of 93,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, with an average revenue per vehicle of 278,000 yuan [1] - The average gross profit per vehicle was 43,000 yuan [1] Organizational Strategy - The company plans to revert to a startup management model starting Q4 2025, focusing on deep dialogue, user value, efficiency, and identifying key issues [1] - Li Auto is developing the M100 chip, designed for embodied intelligence, currently undergoing large-scale system testing, with commercial use expected in 2026 [1] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 113.4 billion, 138.1 billion, and 191.2 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -22%, +22%, and +39% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period have been reduced to 900 million, 1.6 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -90%, +86%, and +302% respectively [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, considering the potential of its AI transformation [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Li Auto's Q3 2025 revenue and profit fell short of expectations due to recall costs, with total revenue declining by 36.2% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The automotive gross margin was reported at 15.5%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, which was below market expectations; excluding the Li MEGA recall impact, the gross margin would have been 19.8% [1] - The average selling price per vehicle increased by 6.7% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to reduced promotional efforts for the L series models and improved product mix, although the decline in sales volume negatively impacted overall revenue [1] Group 2 - For Q4 2025, the company guided vehicle deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, corresponding to revenue of 26.5 billion to 29.2 billion yuan, with a projected sales increase of 7.3% to 18.0% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Despite strong market demand for new electric models i6 and i8, with cumulative orders exceeding 100,000 units, short-term deliveries are constrained by supply chain bottlenecks for key components like batteries [2] - Management expects supply shortages to gradually ease after implementing a dual-supplier model in November, with production capacity anticipated to rise to an average of 20,000 units per month by early next year [2] Group 3 - The company maintains a neutral rating, suggesting that the current stock price reflects most negative factors, with recovery dependent on the resolution of Q4 supply chain issues and actual sales realization from i6/i8 production ramp-up [3] - The management emphasized strategic investments in AI and embodied intelligence during a recent conference call, indicating potential positive impacts on stock price if tangible products emerge next year [3] - The stock price has corrected approximately 40% from previous highs, and the current valuation is believed to account for most of the negative factors [3]