💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 MORGAN STANLEY SAYS THE FED WILL CUT RATES THREE TIMES THIS YEAR.HERE WE GO! 🚀 ...

Group 1 - The stablecoin market is projected to reach $2 trillion in the next three years, representing a tenfold increase, driven by regulatory frameworks like the Genius Act [1] - Stablecoins are defined as blockchain-based currencies typically pegged to traditional currencies, offering fast and low-cost payment processing without geographical constraints [2] - Initially serving as a bridge between traditional money and cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are now being explored by banks, retailers, and other entities for integration into their operations [3] Group 2 - The total volume of stablecoins in circulation exceeds $210 billion, surpassing the customer payables of several brokerages [5] - Tether has approximately $150 billion in circulation, while Circle's USD Coin totals nearly $63 billion; in contrast, Robinhood has over $7 billion in liquid assets, and Morgan Stanley has over $200 billion in customer payables [6] - Despite the growth of stablecoin deposits, traditional banks remain dominant, with JPMorgan Chase holding $2.1 trillion in deposits and Bank of America and Wells Fargo combined holding $3.3 trillion [8] Group 3 - If the transaction volume of stablecoins continues to grow at the current rate, they could potentially surpass existing payment systems within a decade, although uncertainties remain regarding the industry's future development [9]

对此，新浪科技就相关情况询问理想汽车方面，对方暂无回应。 责任编辑：李思阳 9月12日消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，即将于9月下旬推出的i6车型对理想汽车至关重要，建议采 取更激进的定价策略，将指导价从此前暂定的25-30万元下探至20-25万元区间。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley believes that the positive fundamentals of the optical module industry have been fully reflected in stock prices after several months of significant increases [1] - The firm suggests that investors should take profits during periods of high market sentiment, contrasting with optimistic reports from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup [1] - Morgan Stanley has made substantial rating adjustments for several leading optical module stocks, with New East Technology being downgraded to "underweight" [1] Group 2 - New East Technology experienced a 338% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, but its growth rate is expected to significantly slow in the coming quarters, potentially triggering a valuation downgrade [1] - Since April, New East Technology's stock has surged by 460%, while other companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication have seen increases of 312% and 269% respectively [1] - Despite the positive outlook for AI infrastructure demand, Morgan Stanley warns that the current level of market enthusiasm is unlikely to be sustainable [1]

Core Points - Morgan Stanley has scheduled its quarterly investor conference calls for the 2026 calendar year, with financial results to be released at approximately 7:30 a.m. (ET) on the day of the calls [1][5] - The calls will be accessible via the Morgan Stanley website, with playback options available [2] - Morgan Stanley is a prominent global financial services firm, offering a variety of investment banking, securities, wealth management, and investment management services across 42 countries [3] Financial Events - Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 call is set for January 15, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET) [5] - First Quarter 2026 call is scheduled for April 15, 2026, at 9:30 a.m. (ET) [5] - Second Quarter 2026 call will take place on July 15, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET) [5] - Third Quarter 2026 call is planned for October 14, 2026, at 9:30 a.m. (ET) [5]

Group 1 - The presentation is led by Angel Castillo Malpica, who is the U.S. machinery and construction analyst at Morgan Stanley [1] - Gabe Bruno, the EVP, CFO, and Treasurer of Lincoln Electric, is present for the discussion [2]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of softening, with several CEOs indicating a potential slowdown ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [2][3][6] - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon noted that while the economy is still progressing, there are signals suggesting a shift [2][4] - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about the economy weakening, stating uncertainty about whether it is heading towards a recession [5][6] Labor Market Insights - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised its nonfarm payrolls data, showing a significant drop of 911,000 from initial estimates, marking the largest shift in over 20 years [1] - Job creation in August was weak, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 [8] - Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf highlighted a growing disparity between higher-income and lower-income consumers, indicating economic struggles for the latter [7] Federal Reserve Expectations - There is a consensus among CEOs that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates, with expectations of a 25-basis point reduction [4][10] - Barclays CEO C. S. Venkatakrishnan mentioned that the Fed's decision may be influenced by the softness in the labor market [10] - PNC Financial Services CEO Bill Demchak noted underlying pressures in the economy that could lead to rate cuts despite consumer spending driving growth [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The focus is on the **China equity market**, particularly the interest from **US investors** in **Chinese equities** and sectors such as **AI humanoid robotics**, **biotech**, and **new consumption** [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Increased Investor Interest**: There has been a significant rise in interest from US investors in the China market, with over **90%** expressing willingness to increase exposure, marking the highest level since early **2021** [3][4]. 2. **Shift in Investment Focus**: US investors are expanding their focus beyond **ADR** and internet stocks to include the **onshore A-share market**, particularly in sectors like **AI/semiconductors** and **robotics** [4][7]. 3. **Positive Market Sentiment**: Factors contributing to this positive sentiment include: - China's leadership in tech sectors [7]. - Incremental policy steps by Chinese policymakers aimed at stabilizing the economy [7]. - Improved liquidity in the China market, which is expected to sustain market rallies [7]. - A growing demand for diversification from US-centric allocations [7]. 4. **Current Positioning of US Investors**: Many US investors are just beginning to re-enter the China market after years of reduced investment, indicating a potential for increased inflows as they conduct further research [10] [11]. Important Considerations and Monitoring Points 1. **Macro Concerns**: Ongoing concerns about deflation and the housing market, with excess inventory expected to take **10 to 12 months** to digest [11]. 2. **Policy Direction**: Monitoring the upcoming **4th plenary** for insights on domestic price stabilization and economic rebalancing is crucial [11]. 3. **Hedging Tools**: The availability of hedging tools is essential for macro and quant funds to participate more actively in the A-share market [11]. 4. **Geopolitical Uncertainty**: Potential meetings between US and Chinese leaders around the **APEC summit** and ongoing negotiations could impact market volatility [11]. Additional Insights - The overall preferred trading markets for US investors remain **ADR > Hong Kong > A-shares**, indicating a hierarchy in trading preferences [4]. - The report suggests that while the sentiment is positive, investors should remain cautious and monitor specific macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that could affect market conditions [11].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley suggests that the recent slowdown in the U.S. labor market is a signal of economic bottoming rather than an impending recession [1][3] - The firm believes the U.S. economy is in the early stages of a "rolling recovery," supported by recent employment data [1][3] Employment Data Analysis - Morgan Stanley interprets the August non-farm payroll report positively, indicating that the U.S. economy has entered a recovery phase [3] - The firm expects June to be the low point of the current economic cycle, with no significant deterioration in non-farm employment data anticipated unless an external shock occurs [3][5] - August's non-farm employment increased by 22,000, which was below market expectations, while July's data was revised upward [3] Economic Recovery Perspective - The research team asserts that the recession began in 2022 and has reached a bottom at specific points, with recent employment data confirming the early recovery phase [5] - The recovery is primarily driven by the technology and consumer goods sectors, benefiting from pandemic-related stimulus measures [5] - The breadth of earnings revisions shows a V-shaped rebound, indicating that such upward turning points occur post-recession rather than pre-recession [5] Market Outlook - While maintaining an optimistic economic outlook, Morgan Stanley highlights a key risk for the stock market related to the extent of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [5] - The Fed remains focused on underlying inflation and weak employment data, but the current data is not "bad enough" to warrant significant rate cuts in the short term [5] - Market volatility may occur during a weak seasonal window, but any consolidation is expected to lay the groundwork for strong performance later in the year [5]

Core Viewpoint - American investors' interest in Chinese stocks is at a five-year high, with their return to the Chinese market just beginning [1][4]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Over 90% of investors expressed a willingness to increase exposure to the Chinese market, marking the highest level since early 2021 [3]. - The interest from American investors extends beyond U.S.-listed Chinese stocks to onshore A-shares, with quantitative and macro funds increasing investments through ETFs and index futures [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Chinese policymakers are gradually taking steps to stabilize the economy and boost the stock market, suggesting that the worst period may be over [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded over 40% since last September, with a nearly 19% increase this year, raising hopes for a slow bull market [5]. Group 3: Recent Data - In August, foreign investors injected nearly $45 billion into emerging market stocks and bonds, with $39 billion flowing into Chinese bonds and stocks [6]. - Global hedge funds recorded the highest net purchases of Chinese assets since September of last year, with total positions reaching a two-year high [7].