文/定龙骑牛 徒步滚雪球 编审/王小鱼 （3）中国资产最佳对冲：A股更多反映"全球制造业周期"和"国内财政杠杆"，而纳指反映"全球科技创新周期"。两者驱动力来源完全不同。在配置模型 中，两者的相关性极低，是真正的有效多样化。 1.2 走势与展望： 当前美股市场机会与风险并存，整体风险较前期有所上升，但核心投资逻辑尚未被破坏。 以后美股相关的讨论，或加急的更新，都用这个账号发布！ 为方便复盘及大家伙儿分散投资风险，我会定期跟踪美股科技的估值情况。如无特别说明，本文使用PE-TTM（滚动市盈率）数据均来自iFind。 一、纳指100 1.1 配置必要性： 结合第一性原理看清资产收益的本质。纳指100的配置价值在于三个底层驱动力： （1）全要素生产率的收割机：经济增长的本质是劳动力、资本和生产率的提升。纳指100代表了当前人类社会全要素生产率（TFP）提升的最高水平。投 资纳指100，本质上是在做多"技术取代人力"和"算法驱动增长"的必然趋势。 （2）全球资本的"高质量回笼"：在全球不确定性增加的背景下，资金倾向于流向拥有最强自由现金流的企业。纳指100成分股多为垄断型科技巨头，它们 不仅赚钱多，还通过巨额股份回购 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2][8]. Core Insights - The release of Optimus Gen3 is anticipated in Q1 2026, with mass production expected to begin by the end of 2026, aiming for an annual capacity of 1 million units. This development positions Tesla favorably in the humanoid robot market, potentially outperforming existing competitors in China [4]. - The humanoid robot sector is seen as entering a new growth phase, with significant investment opportunities arising from the performance of Optimus Gen3 exceeding expectations [5]. - SpaceX plans to deploy up to 1 million satellites to create a "orbital data center" network, enhancing capabilities for advanced AI models and applications [6]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Sector - The Huaxin humanoid robot index fell by 7.97% this week, with a cumulative return of 111.5% since 2025. The trading volume of the humanoid robot sector accounted for 22.9% of the CSI 2000 index, indicating a high level of market activity [17]. - Among the sub-sectors, sensors performed relatively well, while components like actuators and dexterous hands saw declines of 9.0% and 8.9% respectively [21]. - Notable stocks in the humanoid robot sector include Tianqi Co., which rose by 19.5%, and Sanxiang New Materials, which increased by 9.0% [25]. Automotive Sector - The CITIC automotive index decreased by 5.1%, underperforming the broader market by 5.2 percentage points [33]. - Within the automotive sub-sectors, commercial vehicles showed better performance, with passenger vehicles down by 3.6% and automotive parts down by 6.7% [36]. - Key companies in the automotive sector that performed well include Xishanghai, which rose by 13.3%, and Shangchai Co., which increased by 13.0% [41]. Company Performance and Forecasts - The report highlights several companies with strong earnings forecasts, including: - Modu Technology, with an EPS forecast of 0.68 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [10]. - Shuanglin Co., with an EPS forecast of 1.24 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [10]. - New Spring Co., with an EPS forecast of 2.00 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [12]. - The automotive sector's PE ratio is at 32.7, placing it in the 41.3% percentile over the past four years, indicating a relatively favorable valuation [50].

每经记者｜孙桐桐 每经编辑｜陈柯名 裴健如 2月1日，多家主流车企陆续披露了2026年1月的销量数据。作为2026年首个完整销售月，头部新能源车品牌多数实现了销量的同比正增长。 从各汽车品牌官方公布的数据来看，2026年1月，车企销量呈现明显的阵营分化特征，新能源车成为各车企销量增长的核心驱动力。 小米汽车官方宣布，1月交付量超3.9万辆，较2025年12月超5万辆的交付量下降22%。 对此，小米集团创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军表示，当前销量得益于订单储备厚度与市场认可度，因SU7处于新老切换阶段，本月主力交付车型为YU7，新 一代SU7将于4月上市，2026年品牌整体销量目标为55万辆。 雷军发布微博称："SU7马上改款，目前主要交付的是YU7。" 值得一提的是，如今，小米汽车不仅是2026年1月的造车新势力销冠，而且拉开了与第二名零跑汽车的差距。 图片来源：每经记者 段思瑶 摄（资料图） 据比亚迪股份公告披露的数据，2026年1月，比亚迪新能源汽车销量约21万辆。 鸿蒙智行官方数据显示，其1月交付量达5.79万辆，同比增长65.6%，环比下滑35.3%。其中，问界车型是其绝对主力，1月交付超4万辆，同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on themes of intelligence and overseas expansion, highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies like BYD and Geely Automobile, as well as in the intelligent and robotics sectors such as Li Auto-W and Xpeng Motors-W [3][16]. Core Insights - Tesla is shifting its focus from traditional vehicle production to AI and robotics, planning to stop the production of Model S and Model X to allocate resources for the Optimus humanoid robot, with a target production capacity of 1 million units annually by 2026 [1][13]. - Li Auto is restructuring its R&D department to enhance its humanoid robot development, indicating a strong commitment to AI competition and innovation in robotics [2][14]. - The passenger car market has shown weak sales performance in early 2026, but there is optimism for recovery in Q1 2026 due to anticipated policy support and seasonal demand [2][15]. Industry Data Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08%, while the automotive index decreased by 5.08%, ranking 29th among 31 sectors [4][17]. - In the second week of January 2026, wholesale passenger car sales were 359,000 units, down 28% year-on-year, with a significant increase in new energy vehicle penetration to 50% [5][26]. - In December 2025, the total wholesale passenger car sales were 2.787 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 3.4% [6][34]. Industry Dynamics - Tesla's transition to focus on AI and robotics is part of a broader trend in the automotive industry, with companies like Xpeng and Li Auto also investing heavily in intelligent driving and robotics [1][3][66]. - The report highlights the importance of new energy vehicle exports, which have shown a consistent growth rate of over 20% year-on-year, indicating a long-term trend towards international markets [3][15]. - The introduction of mandatory standards for advanced driver assistance systems in China marks a significant regulatory shift that will impact the automotive landscape [68].

以下文章来源于远川科技评论 ，作者何律衡 远川科技评论 . 刻画这个时代（的前沿科技） 2014年，首批Model S在中国交付 马斯克在2019年就曾表示，继续生产Model S/X"更多是出于一种情怀"[2]，如今六年过去，这么长的时间也足够把情怀消磨干净了。 "光荣退役"的体面包装下，是一个越来越清晰的事实：特斯拉已经不关心汽车了。 特斯拉全年财报出炉，年度营收首次下降，汽车业务交付量连续第二年下滑，营收同比大降10%。财报电话会上，马斯克宣布了个伤感的消息： 特斯拉标杆车型Model S/X将在第二季度末停产，位于弗里蒙特的产线将被改造成Optimus机器人工厂，暂定小目标 年产能 100万台[1]。 作为S3XY系列的老大哥，Model S发布于2012年，是Roadster后特斯拉真正意义上的首款量产车型，Model X在2015年发布，两款车型确立了特斯拉电动车霸主的 品牌形象。 但从销量来看，Model S/X在特斯拉财报中与Cybertruck、Semi一同被归类于 other model 中，销量一直不高，2025年四个车型满打满算不到5万台，只有Model 3/Y 的零头（158.53万 ...

Group 1 - The core idea is that AI is still in its early stages and has a long way to go, with significant capital expenditures being made in the technology and telecommunications sectors, reminiscent of previous infrastructure cycles [10][11][12] - The current capital expenditure cycle is compared to historical infrastructure waves, with expectations that it could push the capital expenditure to GDP ratio to 12% [5][13] - The report highlights rapid expansion in AI infrastructure, with data center spending expected to reach $1.4 trillion annually by 2030, significantly up from $500 billion [17][18] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of being on the right side of change, particularly in the software market, which is projected to grow significantly, with potential growth rates of 19% in bear markets and up to 54% in bull markets [19][20] - The emergence of new companies with astonishing productivity levels, such as Tether, which achieved a per capita output of $50 million, indicates a potential for unprecedented productivity gains [22] - The integration of biotechnology and AI is expected to reduce drug development costs significantly, with estimates suggesting costs could drop from $2.4 billion to around $700 million over the next four years [24][26] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential of reusable rockets and the new industry of space data centers, highlighting the significant market opportunities that could arise from these technologies [28][30] - The analysis of autonomous vehicles suggests that the market could reach a valuation of approximately $34 trillion by 2030, driven by the efficiency of autonomous driving technology [43][44] - The logistics sector is also expected to see substantial cost reductions through automation, with drone delivery costs projected to decrease dramatically [46] Group 4 - The current period is described as a "golden time" for innovation, with many startups referencing the research to estimate market sizes and drive their innovations [48][50] - The report concludes that the innovation cycle is gaining momentum, suggesting that the current environment is conducive to significant advancements and market transformations [52]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 1 日 钠电池有望进入放量应用阶段 我们认为，钠电兼具成本和性能优势。根据 SMM 数据，1 月 30 日，国产电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）日均价为 16.05 万元，同比 （2025 年 1 月 27 日 7.78 万元）增长 106.3%。由于碳酸锂在锂 电池成本中的比重较高，假设 1GWh 锂电池需要 600 吨碳酸锂计 算，碳酸锂价格上涨 10 万元，将带来锂电池成本增加 0.06 元， 因此碳酸锂价格的明显上涨将带来锂电池成本的提升。而钠元 素凭借资源禀赋优势，相比之下性价比优势突显。根据 SMM 数 据，1 月 30 日，电池级碳酸钠（99.5%）平均价为 4150 元/吨。 此外，经过多年的发展，钠电池技术和工艺逐步成熟，在储 能、商用车、乘用车等领域，以及换电、低温等场景中的性能 优势明显，钠电池有望实现规模应用，布局钠电池以及相关材 料的企业有望受益。 [Table_Title] 看好电力设备出海成长性，容量电价政策落地 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 ...

汽车行业周报 比亚迪发布天神之眼 5.0，辅助驾驶不断进阶 中游制造/汽车 1 月 25 日至 1 月 31 日，汽车行业整体下跌 5.1%。本周，比亚迪发布天神之眼 辅助驾驶系统 5.0 版本，在全闭环端到端的基础上，新增强化学习能力，其核心 优势为强化学习+闭环训练，实现 AI 大模型自进化。特斯拉获准在瑞典全境测 试完全自动驾驶系统，标志着特斯拉向在更广泛欧洲市场落地 FSD 系统迈出关 键一步。阿联酋正全面提速无人驾驶商业化进程，其中，阿布扎比目标是到 2040 年实现 25%的出行由自动驾驶完成，迪拜计划在 2030 年前让 25%的出行转为 自动驾驶。 ❑ 市场板块行情回顾 本周 CS 汽车+2.2%。本周（1 月 25 日至 1 月 31 日，下同）上证 A 指周度 涨跌幅为-0.4%，深证 A 指涨跌幅为-2.3%，创业板涨跌幅为-0.1%。本周各 行业板块下跌居多，涨幅较大的行业板块为 CS 石油石化（+6.9%）、CS 通 信（+4.8%）和 CS 煤炭（+4.0%），下跌幅度较大的行业板块为 CS 国防军 工（-7.6%）、CS 综合金融（-6.2%）和 CS 汽车（-5.1%）。 汽车 ...

In case you had any doubt, a trillion dollars can go a long way. That cash figure, equivalent to a million millions, can cover the combined purchase cost of Apple and McDonald's or buy every residential home in San Diego County. Or, it could snap up tickets to every football game at the University of Nebraska’s Memorial Stadium, with a capacity of 93,000 fans for the next 400 years, even if the Cornhuskers hit the gridiron every day. The $1 trillion figure is gaining traction on social media and among e ...

单击或点击此处输入文字。 核心观点： 机器人：景气度加速向上，特斯拉三代机器人即将发布，多家机器人本体联袂亮相春晚。 特斯拉三代机器人即将发布，Modle S/X 产线将改建为机器人产线。1 月 29 日，马斯克在 2025 业绩交流会上表示， 第三代 Optimus 预计数月内推出，定位为通用型人形机器人，可通过观察、语言和视频学习任务。机器人在灵巧手、 现实场景智能和规模化制造三大核心能力上具备系统性优势。产能规划方面，弗里蒙特工厂的 Model S/X 产线将改造 为 Optimus 生产基地，长期目标年产 100 万台。由于供应链完全从零构建，产能爬坡将呈相对平缓的 S 曲线。长 期来看，Optimus 对美国 GDP 具备显著拉动潜力，是长期最具颠覆性的增长方向之一。 宇树科技等四家具身厂商合作总台春晚，机器人将走进大众视野。今年央视春晚已汇聚宇树科技、松延动力、魔法原 子、银河通用等四家机器人企业。今年春晚机器人阵容已覆盖从双足人形到轮式具身智能的多条技术路线。其中，三 家机器人公司为首次登陆春晚。2026 年春晚机器人合作伙伴阵容的扩大，将创下春晚机器人品牌集中亮相新纪录。 亚信科技、ABB 机 ...