Core Viewpoint - TSMC is increasing capital spending in response to strong demand for AI accelerators, indicating confidence in the AI market despite concerns about a potential bubble [1][3][10] Financial Performance - TSMC reported a 20.5% year-over-year revenue increase and a 35% jump in net income for Q4 2025, with expectations of nearly 30% revenue growth in 2026 and a 25% compound annual growth rate through 2029 [2][8] AI Demand and Capital Expenditure - The demand for AI accelerators is projected to grow by at least 50% annually through 2029, prompting TSMC to ramp up capital expenditures to between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026, compared to around $40 billion in 2025 [3][8] - TSMC is also accelerating the start of production at its second fab in Arizona, with high-volume manufacturing expected to begin in the second half of 2027 [9] Market Confidence and Customer Insights - TSMC's CEO has engaged with customers to assess the sustainability of AI demand, concluding that "AI is real" and identifying it as an "AI megatrend" [6] - The financial health of hyperscale cloud providers, who are significant customers, has contributed to TSMC's confidence in future demand [6] Operational Efficiency - TSMC is utilizing AI to enhance productivity in its fabs, achieving gains of 1% to 2% at minimal cost [7] Industry Risks and Considerations - Despite the optimistic outlook, TSMC remains cautious about overexpansion, as the sustainability of AI demand and the financial viability of AI companies are uncertain [4][10][12] - The potential for unsustainable spending by AI companies raises questions about the long-term demand for AI computing capacity and TSMC's manufacturing capabilities [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The concern regarding the AI bubble seems to be diminishing, which aligns with previous insights on the semiconductor landscape [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - The analyst, Uttam, specializes in growth-oriented investment analysis, focusing on technology sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and cloud software [2] - Uttam has experience working in Silicon Valley with major technology firms like Apple and Google, leading teams [2] - He co-authors a newsletter, The Pragmatic Optimist, which is frequently cited by prominent publications like the Wall Street Journal and Forbes [2] Group 2: Analyst's Position - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in shares of AMD and TSM, indicating a vested interest in these companies [3]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|建筑装饰 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 建筑行业周报 海外持续景气叠加国产替代提速，继续看多洁净室 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 建筑行业周报:核聚变大会即 | 2026-01-11 | | --- | --- | | 将召开、存储芯片短缺持 | | | 续，继续推荐利柏特，重视 | | | 核聚变、洁净室、绿氢工程 | | | 标的 | | [联系人： Table_Contacts]张子峻 021-38003620 zhangzijun@gf.com.cn 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/14 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-18 | [分析师： Table_Author]耿鹏智 SAC 执证号：S0260524010001 021-38003620 gengpengzhi@gf.com.cn 分析师： 尉凯旋 ...

TSMC has for decades provided a "Silicon Shield†to its namesake island. Now it sees both business and geopolitical reasons for going big in the U.S. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by advancements in AI and high-end packaging technologies. TSMC has raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, a substantial increase of up to 36.9% from 2025, with a focus on advanced packaging and testing [3][4] - Major companies are actively expanding capacity to meet the rising demand for advanced packaging, with investments in new facilities and technologies across various sectors, including automotive and AI [4] - Price increases in packaging services are anticipated due to strong structural demand and rising raw material costs, with some companies already implementing price hikes of up to 30% [5] Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure and Growth - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, with advanced packaging investments expected to contribute over 10% of revenue by 2026 [3] - The revenue contribution from advanced packaging is expected to grow from approximately 8% in 2025 to slightly above 10% in 2026, indicating a higher growth rate than the overall company growth [3] Capacity Expansion - Major players like Changdian Technology and Jinglong Technology are investing heavily in new facilities to enhance their testing capabilities for high-end semiconductors, with investments reaching billions [4] - Companies such as Tongfu Microelectronics and Nexperia are also planning significant investments to boost their packaging capacities, indicating a trend of expansion in response to market demand [4] Price Trends in Packaging - The packaging industry is experiencing price increases driven by high demand for AI and memory chips, with companies like ASE and others in Taiwan raising prices by 5-20% and up to 30% respectively [5] - The increase in raw material costs, including metals like gold and copper, is contributing to the overall rise in packaging costs, which may lead to improved profitability for packaging companies [5] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on domestic companies actively engaged in high-end advanced packaging, such as Changdian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics, as well as those benefiting from the sector's growth like Yongxi Electronics and Huada Technology [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the AI hardware sector, highlighting strong demand for AI computing power and significant capital expenditure growth from TSMC in 2026 [5][19]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.7 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 3.3%, with a gross margin of 62.3% and an adjusted net profit of $16.29 billion, surpassing expectations by 10.4% [2][11]. - The HPC segment remains the core growth driver for TSMC, accounting for 55% of Q4 revenue and showing a 48% year-over-year growth, which is expected to continue into 2026 [2][19]. - The SELF DRIVE Act is poised to significantly increase the annual exemption limit for autonomous vehicles from 2,500 to 90,000 units per manufacturer, facilitating large-scale deployment of Level 4 autonomous vehicles [4][17]. - AMD and Intel's server CPU inventories are reportedly sold out, with a projected price increase of up to 15% due to high demand from hyperscale cloud providers [4][18]. Summary by Sections TSMC Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue was $33.7 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% and an adjusted net profit of $16.29 billion, all exceeding market expectations [2][11]. - For the full year 2025, TSMC's revenue is projected at $122.56 billion, with a gross margin of 59.9% and an adjusted net profit growth of 552.7% [2][11]. - The company plans a capital expenditure of $52-56 billion for 2026, a significant increase from $40.9 billion in 2025, with expected revenue growth of nearly 30% year-over-year [12][19]. AI Hardware Demand - The report emphasizes strong and certain demand for AI computing power, with TSMC's HPC business expected to account for 58% of total revenue in 2025, growing at 48% year-over-year [5][19]. - The introduction of Anthropic's Cowork feature marks a significant advancement in AI applications, allowing for more autonomous task management and collaboration [3][14]. Autonomous Vehicle Regulations - The SELF DRIVE Act aims to enhance the regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles, proposing to raise the exemption limit for manufacturers significantly, which could accelerate the deployment of autonomous vehicle technology [4][17]. - The bipartisan support for the SELF DRIVE Act indicates a strong political will to advance autonomous vehicle technology in the U.S. [4][17]. Server CPU Market - The server CPU market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with AMD and Intel's inventories reportedly sold out, leading to anticipated price increases of up to 15% [4][18]. - The demand surge is primarily driven by hyperscale cloud providers upgrading their server architectures [4][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on companies like TSMC and others involved in AI and advanced manufacturing processes [6][30]. Core Insights - TSMC's FY25Q4 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, with revenue reaching $33.73 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase [10][11]. - The company anticipates continued robust growth in AI demand, with a projected CAGR of mid-to-high 50% for AI accelerator business from 2024 to 2029 [16][20]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, primarily for advanced process capacity expansion [2][20]. Summary by Sections TSMC Performance - TSMC's Q4 FY25 revenue was $33.73 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% and a net profit margin of 48.3% [10][11]. - The company expects Q1 FY26 revenue to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin of 63%-65% [10][12]. AI Demand and Market Trends - AI demand is identified as a significant growth driver, with high-performance computing (HPC) accounting for 55% of TSMC's revenue in Q4 FY25 [13][16]. - The report highlights a healthy and genuine demand for AI, with expectations for continued growth in advanced processes and AI-related applications [2][20]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity Expansion - TSMC plans to allocate 70%-80% of its 2026 capital expenditure to advanced process expansion, with careful assessment of customer needs [2][20]. - The company is expanding its manufacturing capacity in the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan to meet long-term trends in AI and HPC [17][20]. Technology Roadmap - TSMC's N2 process has entered mass production, with expectations for rapid ramp-up in 2026, alongside the introduction of N2P and A16 processes [18][20]. - The N2 family is anticipated to become a key platform with a long lifecycle, reinforcing TSMC's leadership in advanced process technology [18][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][36] Core Insights - TSMC significantly increased its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, up from $40.9 billion in 2025, driven by strong demand for AI hardware [3][6] - The report highlights the robust growth in AI-driven high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, which accounted for 55% of TSMC's Q4 revenue, with advanced process nodes (3nm and 5nm) contributing 63% of Q4 revenue [3][6] - The report emphasizes the anticipated growth in the semiconductor cycle driven by AI, recommending a focus on the entire semiconductor supply chain, including key stocks such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others [3][34] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - TSMC reported Q4 revenue of $33.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9%, with a gross margin of 62.3% [6] - The report notes that TSMC's net profit reached NT$505.74 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase, with a net profit margin of 48.3% [6] Market Review - The electronic industry saw a weekly increase of 3.77% from January 12 to January 16, with the computer sector leading at 3.82% [9][11] - Among the electronic sub-sectors, the integrated circuit packaging and testing sector had the highest increase at 14.47% [11] High-Frequency Data Tracking - Panel prices for TVs are expected to see a mild increase in January, driven by strong supply control from manufacturers and rising material costs [14] - Memory prices showed an upward trend, with DDR5 16G prices rising from $32.50 to $35.00 and DDR4 16Gb prices increasing from $70.50 to $76.13 between January 12 and January 16 [19]

1）台积电资本支出及业绩超预期：A）台积电公布 2025 年 Q4 财务报告，公司当季营收为 337.3 亿美元，同比+25.5%， 环比+1.9%。全面上修业绩增速与毛利率指引，将 2024 至 2029 年 AI 营收 CAGR 从原先的"40%中段"提升至"50%中 高段"。B）2026 年资本支出规模进一步扩大至 520 亿至 560 亿美元。公司管理层强调，约七成至八成资本将投向先 进制程技术，其余用于特殊制程、先进封装等领域，以应对持续旺盛的 AI 芯片需求。全球 AI 算力需求持续旺盛。2） 国产芯片、国产大模型、国产应用携手共进，加速国产链向上：A）首个完全依托国产芯片全程训练的 SOTA 多模态模 型 GLM-Image，开源 24 小时内登顶全球知名 AI 开源社区 Hugging Face Trending，标志国产 AI 模型的端到端自主研 发能力在国际竞争中取得突破。B）DeepSeek 发布新论文，提出 Engram 机制，在等参数、等算力条件下显著提升模型 在知识调用、推理、代码、数学等任务上的表现。同时，DeepSeek 开源相关记忆模块 Engram。我们认为此机制意味 着在 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance from TSMC and Google, emphasizing the importance of the silicon photonics chain and Google chain [14][17] - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is significantly increased, indicating robust growth signals in AI [5][15] - Apple's partnership with Google to utilize the Gemini model for AI applications, particularly in Siri, is noted as a positive development for Google's AI capabilities [17] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.7 billion, slightly above expectations, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.9% [5][14] - TSMC's 2025 annual revenue was $122 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, outperforming the foundry industry growth of 16% [5][14] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in silicon photonics and liquid cooling due to the AI-driven demand [16] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of November 2025, China's 5G base stations totaled 4.83 million, with a net increase of 579,000 from the end of 2024 [28] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.193 billion, a year-on-year growth of 19.06% [28] - 5G mobile phone shipments in November 2025 were 27.614 million units, accounting for 91.6% of total shipments, with a year-on-year growth of 1.08% [28] 3. Operator Performance - China Mobile's cloud revenue for the first half of 2025 was 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year [47] - China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud revenue for the same period was 57.3 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase [47] - The ARPU values for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom remained relatively stable, with slight decreases noted for China Unicom [47][52][56] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main AI investment themes: "Optical, Liquid Cooling, and Domestic Computing Power" [18] - Specific recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Yingwei Ke [16][18] - The report also highlights potential beneficiaries in various sectors, including AI applications, operators, and satellite internet [18][19][26]