1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International sugar market: As the production of the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season in Brazil progresses, the increasing supply from Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere continue to suppress international sugar prices. However, the low cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil and the signal of increased demand may provide some upward momentum for international sugar prices. Technically, the raw sugar price is oscillating and rebounding, but the rebound space is still limited [4]. - Domestic sugar market: The spot price of the domestic sugar market fluctuates slightly. Although the domestic - international sugar price spread is widening, the high domestic sugar production and sales rate and the appearance of import profits outside the quota are the main factors suppressing the sugar price. The new industrial inventory is in the destocking stage, which supports the domestic sugar price. It is expected that the sugar price will still show an oscillating trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display - Price changes: ICE raw sugar main contract rose from 16.56 to 16.79, an increase of 1.39%; ICE white sugar main contract rose from 479.4 to 486.4, an increase of 1.46%; Zheng sugar main contract decreased from 5810 to 5805, a decrease of 0.09%. The processing sugar costs in Brazil and Thailand also increased to varying degrees, while the prices in some domestic regions such as Guangxi Nanning decreased slightly, and Yunnan Kunming increased slightly [2]. - Profit changes: The import processing sugar profits (both outside and within the quota) and the import disk profit all showed a slight decline [2]. - Basis and spread: The basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou is expected to oscillate weakly; the spreads between Zheng sugar 9 - 11 and 9 - 1 are expected to weaken from high levels; the delivery costs in Guangxi and Yunnan are expected to oscillate slightly [3]. 3.2 Market Key Data Overview 3.2.1 International Market Key Data Overview - Brazil: The bi - weekly production increased from 245.00 million tons to 285.00 million tons, an increase of 16.33%; the monthly export volume increased from 225.66 million tons to 336.18 million tons, an increase of 48.98%. The production is gradually increasing, but the low cane - to - sugar ratio may lead to lower - than - expected production [4]. - Thailand and India: The report shows the bi - weekly cumulative production data of Thailand and India, but no specific analysis of the changes is provided [31][32]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market Key Data Overview - Production and sales: The domestic sugar production and sales rate increased from 65.22% to 72.69%, and the new industrial inventory entered the destocking stage. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5.57%, indicating that the spot inventory is low and the formation of warehouse receipts is slow [4]. - Import data: China's sugar import volume increased from 350,000 tons to 420,000 tons, a 20% increase; the import volume of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline month - on - month, but the June data has not been released [4]. - Downstream market: The report shows data such as the proportion of online retail in social consumer goods, the number of food industry enterprises, and the PPI of the sugar - making and downstream industries, but no specific analysis of the impact on the sugar market is provided [47][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International cotton market: Trade tariffs imposed by the US on most countries increase market uncertainty and may lead to inflation, supporting a rebound in cotton prices. However, the latest USDA export data shows that export pressure persists, constraining the upward movement of cotton prices. The expected increase in supply also exerts pressure on cotton prices [7]. - Domestic cotton market: Domestic cotton prices are rising strongly, supported by tight domestic cotton inventories. Cotton prices are expected to continue to rebound, but the downstream operating rate is still declining, spinning profit losses are increasing, and yarn inventories are accumulating, which is unfavorable for raw material procurement. Cotton prices face pressure from weakening demand and profit - taking by funds at high levels. The issue of Sino - US trade tariffs will gradually increase market attention and price volatility [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview Market Price Situation - Futures closing prices (active) of NYBOT 2 - grade cotton increased from 67.42 to 68.76, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%, and are expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM) rose from 75.28 to 76.38, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract increased from 13,885 to 14,270, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound. The international cotton market is still in a downward trend due to demand concerns, while the domestic market is relatively strong because of lower year - on - year inventories [5]. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) rose from 15,266 to 15,508, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) increased from 13,597 to 13,815, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) rose from 20,490 to 20,740, a week - on - week increase of 1.22%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - Cotton spot import profit increased from 1,669 to 1,693, a week - on - week increase of 1.44%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton futures import profit increased from 288 to 455, a week - on - week increase of 57.99%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton yarn import profit increased from - 1,524 to - 1,393, a week - on - week increase of 8.60%, but it remains weak [5]. - Cotton basis decreased from 1,420 to 1,238, a week - on - week decrease of 12.82%, and is expected to remain strong in the short term but gradually weaken [5]. - Cotton yarn basis decreased from 400 to 220, a week - on - week decrease of 45.00%, and is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [5]. Supply - Demand Factor Situation - International market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, global cotton production increased from 25.5038 million tons to 25.8156 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22%, and the next - year production forecast is upward - adjusted; global cotton inventory increased from 16.7434 million tons to 16.8557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 65.22% to 65.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%, which is bearish for the market. The weekly net sales of US cotton decreased from 255,000 tons to 341,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.08%, which also exerts pressure on cotton prices [6]. - Domestic market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly from 6.54 million tons to 6.758 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.33%. Commercial cotton inventory decreased from 3.4587 million tons to 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.18%. Cotton imports decreased from 40,000 tons to 30,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The downstream operating rate decreased from 68.39% to 68.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. Textile exports increased from $26.20951 billion to $27.314921 billion, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%, but there are concerns about future exports [6]. 2. Spot Market Prices and Spreads - Spot cotton and yarn price trends: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B), the International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM), the China Yarn Price Index, and the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) all showed upward trends [5][13][14][15][16]. - Basis: This week, the cotton basis rebounded, while the cotton yarn basis showed a volatile downward trend [18]. - Cotton and cotton yarn internal - external spreads: The document presents the trends of import cotton prices, internal - external cotton spreads, import yarn prices, and internal - external yarn spreads [22]. 3. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - USDA supply - demand data (July): Global cotton production and ending inventory are upward - adjusted, which is bearish for the market [25]. - International market: US upland cotton export shipments and contracts decreased [28]. 4. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton market: According to the USDA July forecast, both supply and demand are expected to decline [32]. - Domestic cotton market: Commercial inventories are in a destocking state, and port inventories are declining at an accelerated pace [35]. - Domestic cotton market: Cotton imports are slowing down [38]. - Domestic textile enterprises: The operating rate is decreasing, yarn inventories are rising, and cotton raw material inventories are decreasing [41]. - Domestic cotton spinning: Imports have not increased significantly, while textile exports are not bad [44]. 5. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB is slowly appreciating [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, LPG futures fluctuated downward, weaker than crude oil. With the supply path of OPEC+ basically determined, the global supply divergence will decrease. On the demand side, although the peak season of the blending market is approaching, it has been operating at a high level. Once expectations are disappointed, a negative feedback loop may form quickly. Summer is also the traditional off - season for civilian demand, with little chance of unexpected changes. PDH profit has significantly recovered, which may support the subsequent operating rate. Overall, LPG supply is abundant, and CP prices may mainly fluctuate with crude oil. In the long - term, demand is expected to decline, and LPG futures prices are more likely to fall than rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG行情回顾 - **Market Review**: Both the commercial volume of liquefied gas and the port arrivals decreased. Although chemical demand increased, civilian consumption was weak, leading to a decline in the market production - sales ratio and an increase in inventories at production enterprises and ports. Next week, supply will continue to decline, and traditional off - season demand shows no signs of improvement. However, considering the decrease in imported arrivals, port inventories are expected to decrease. On July 17, the average domestic civilian price was 4480 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from last Thursday, and the average price of ether - after carbon four was 4714 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan/ton from last Thursday [5]. - **Logic and View**: LPG futures oscillated downward this week, weaker than crude oil. With the supply path of OPEC+ basically determined, global supply divergence will decrease. The blending market's peak season is approaching, but it has been operating at a high level. Once expectations are disappointed, a negative feedback loop may form quickly. Summer is the traditional off - season for civilian demand. PDH profit has recovered, which may support the operating rate. Overall, LPG supply is abundant, and CP prices may follow crude oil. In the long - term, demand is expected to decline, and LPG futures prices are more likely to fall than rise [6]. - **Key Strategy Recommendation**: For futures, try shorting at high prices [7]. PART 02: LPG基本面 - **Supply - Import**: The report presents historical data on LPG arrivals in China, import trade margins in the South China region, and import volumes from different countries such as the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE [14][17]. - **LPG Freight**: It shows historical freight data from the Arabian Gulf to the Far East and from the US Gulf Coast to the Far East [20]. - **LPG Inventory**: The report provides historical data on port inventories, refinery capacity utilization rates, and factory inventories in China, as well as production - sales ratios in regions such as South China, Shandong, and East China [22][26]. - **Industrial Indicators**: It includes historical data on the operating rates and production margins of PDH, MTBE, and alkylated oil in China [31][33][35]. PART 03: LPG相关价格数据 - **Import Cost**: It shows the historical prices of CP far - month and current - month contracts, as well as the predicted prices of propane and butane in the external market, and the price trends of CP crude oil [40]. - **Domestic Prices**: The report presents historical data on the ex - factory prices of domestic civilian liquefied gas in Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao, as well as the ex - factory price of ether - after carbon four, the spot benchmark price of MTBE in Shandong, the market price of alkylated gasoline in Shandong, and the spot price of maleic anhydride [42][46][50]. PART 04: LPG其他数据 - **Related Data**: It includes historical data on the basis of the LPG main contract, the price difference between the first and second - month contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts of major delivery warehouses [54][56].

供需矛盾不大，甲醇偏弱震荡 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年7月20日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 虽然近期商品情绪好转，淘汰落后产能等消息刺激市场情绪，但反弹主要集中在黑色及新能源相关行业， 甲醇目前上游高利润、下游低利润，不具备大幅上涨的基础，所以甲醇表现相对平淡。就甲醇自身而言，中 东地缘政治冲突降温，现货流动性不再紧张，现货价格下跌，甲醇转入偏弱震荡。 甲醇基本面变动不大，甲醇自身供应压力还是比较大，高利润刺激上游形成高供应，下游需求增长乏力， 甲醇整体偏弱。情绪消退以后，预计会进入偏弱震荡的格局，我们建议谨防回调风险。 单边策略：谨防回调风险 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market presents both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential production cuts in some surveyed areas, high - temperature warnings during the physiological fruit - dropping period, and possible poor quality of new - season jujubes. Negative factors are high inventory, a consumption slump in July, and a likely normal but relatively small - yield year according to surveys [4]. - In mid - to late July, Xinjiang jujubes enter the physiological fruit - dropping period. There is no concentrated fruit - dropping yet, and recent temperatures in the producing areas are lower than forecast with more rainfall, which is suitable for fruit setting. In the sales areas, the arrival volume is still low, and terminal consumption is average during the traditional off - season. The short - term spot price of jujubes is expected to remain stable. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures price may fluctuate within a bottom range. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season jujubes [4]. - The trading strategy recommendations are to short on rallies for single - side trading, go long on the 09 contract and short on the 01 contract for inter - month trading, and there are no recommendations for volatility and options trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price (Main Producing Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing areas is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction prices in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6.0 yuan/kg respectively [6]. Spot Price (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, about 20 trucks of jujubes arrived this week, with the arrival volume increasing compared to last week. The price showed a small and stable fluctuation, with high - quality goods having a stronger price. The actual demand at the terminal has not been prominent during the traditional consumption off - season, and the transaction is average. The grade prices are as follows: super - special grade is 10.50 - 11.50 yuan/kg, special grade is 9.30 - 10.50 yuan/kg, first - grade is 8.50 - 9.00 yuan/kg, second - grade is 7.50 yuan/kg, and third - grade is 6.10 - 6.30 yuan/kg [10]. Spot Price (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable compared to the previous week. The price difference between special - grade and first - grade jujubes is 1.1 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg compared to last week. The price difference between first - grade and second - grade jujubes is 1.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg compared to last week [13]. Sample Point Weekly Inventory - As of July 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 10,320 tons, a decrease of 110 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 74.98% [16]. Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Producing Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing areas is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the first - grade finished product price in the Hebei sales area is 8.50 - 8.80 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 340 - 350 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 1.86 yuan/kg, remaining the same as last week [19]. Futures - Spot Basis (Special - Grade, First - Grade) - The jujube futures price is weakening, while the spot price is stable, causing the futures - spot basis to strengthen slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou has a discount of 450 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product [22]. Contract Spread - The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts has narrowed, with a discount of 220 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 contracts have a premium of 1240 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 contracts are fluctuating, with a discount of 1020 yuan/ton. There is a potential positive - spread arbitrage opportunity for the 9 - 1 contracts [25]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of July 11, the number of registered jujube warehouse receipts is 8971, and the number of valid forecasts is 1448, totaling 10419, equivalent to 52095 tons of spot [30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View - The report presents the weekly inventory data of manganese ore at Tianjin Port as of July 18, 2025, including details of inventory, outbound, inbound, and changes for different origins such as Gabon, Australia, South Africa, Ghana, and others [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog - **Overall Inventory Data**: The total inventory of manganese ore at Tianjin Port this week is 3,437,658 tons, a decrease of 111,081 tons compared to last week. The total outbound volume is 406,823 tons, and the total inbound volume is 295,743 tons [1]. - **Inventory by Origin**: - **Gabon**: The inventory is 268,412 tons, a decrease of 52,280 tons, accounting for 6.50% of the total inventory [1]. - **Australia**: The inventory is 107,440 tons, an increase of 18,744 tons, accounting for 3.23% of the total inventory [1]. - **South Africa**: The inventory is 2,495,357 tons, a decrease of 115,993 tons, accounting for 75.01% of the total inventory [1]. - **Ghana**: The inventory is -30,702 tons (indicating a net decrease), with an outbound volume of 128,700 tons and an inbound volume of 159,402 tons, accounting for 3.87% of the total inventory [1]. - **Other Origins**: The inventory is 378,948 tons, an increase of 69,150 tons, accounting for 11.39% of the total inventory [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the supply - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, the demand is expected to decline, the terminal has sufficient inventory and poor finished - product profits. After the positive feedback sentiment in the market subsides, maintain a bearish view. In the short term, prevent risks and mainly wait and see [7][9]. - For the glass market, the supply side has a policy - favorable orientation but it has not yet affected the industry. The market sentiment has been boosted in the short term, but the valuation is still low. Hold a long - position at a low level, and leave the market flexibly if the sentiment weakens [153][155]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Soda Ash Market 3.1 Soda Ash Market Overview - **Supply**: The current total production is 73.32 million tons, with heavy - quality production at 41.47 million tons and light - quality production at 31.85 million tons. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, and the production is expected to increase in the future. The import is 0.03 million tons, and the export is 4.1 million tons [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - quality soda ash consumption is 33.22 million tons, and the light - quality soda ash apparent demand is 30.02 million tons. The overall apparent demand is 69.10 million tons, with a decreasing trend in the future [7]. - **Inventory**: The alkali - factory inventory is 190.56 million tons, and the social inventory is 24.66 million tons. The inventory is expected to increase [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ammonia - soda process cost is 1285 yuan, with a profit of - 85 yuan; the combined - soda process cost is 1133 yuan, with a profit of 17 yuan [7]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - The report provides historical data on monthly production, import, export, and apparent demand of soda ash from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][18][20]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - It includes the comparison of spot - futures prices, basis of soda ash contracts, inter - delivery spread of soda ash contracts, and glass - soda ash contract/spot spread [23][28][33][37]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - The current price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Shahe area is 1206 yuan, showing a downward trend compared with last week and last year. The report also provides price data for different regions and the price difference between heavy - and light - quality soda ash [45][49][69]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Enterprise Operation**: Some enterprises such as Shandong Haihua, Anhui Debang are in the process of maintenance or have low - load operation, and some enterprises like Fengcheng Yanhua and Suyan Jingshen have planned maintenance [76]. - **Operating Rate**: The current domestic operating rate is 84.1%, showing an upward trend compared with last week [77]. - **Production of Heavy - and Light - Quality Soda Ash**: The report provides historical data on the weekly production of domestic heavy - and light - quality soda ash [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: It includes the cost and profit data of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process, as well as the price of related products such as synthetic ammonia [87][91][99]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Demand for Heavy - Quality Soda Ash**: It is mainly affected by the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The report provides historical data on the daily melting volume and demand [121][122][124]. - **Weekly Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The report provides historical data on the weekly consumption and sales - to - production ratio of heavy - quality, light - quality, and overall soda ash [129][130][131]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: It provides historical price data of photovoltaic glass with different specifications [133][134][135]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - The current enterprise inventory is 190.56 million tons, with an increasing trend. The report also provides inventory data for different regions [139][140][148]. Glass Market 3.1 Glass Market Overview - **Supply**: The current daily melting volume of float glass is 157,825 tons, and the weekly production is 110.48 million tons. It is expected to increase slightly in the future [153]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 121.71 million tons, and the market sentiment has been boosted recently [153]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory is 324.70 million tons, showing a downward trend [153]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production lines such as natural - gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke vary. Some production lines are in a loss state [153]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - The report provides historical data on monthly production, import, and export of flat glass from 2020 - 2025 [160][162][165]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - It includes the comparison of spot - futures prices, basis of glass contracts, inter - delivery spread of glass contracts, and glass - soda ash contract/spot spread [168][173][177][182]. 3.4 Glass Market Price - The report provides price data of float glass with different specifications in different regions, such as Shahe, North China, East China, etc [190][191][193]. 3.5 Glass Supply - **Profit of Float Glass**: The profit of coal - gas enterprises, petroleum - coke enterprises, and natural - gas enterprises varies. The profit of coal - gas enterprises is relatively good, while that of natural - gas enterprises is in a loss state [229].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different trends are predicted for various commodities, including trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头. Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are classified as 偏空, 震荡, or 偏多 [2][5]. - For different sectors such as macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals and new materials, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, specific trading strategies and market outlooks are provided for each commodity. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to moving average support, consider gradually taking profits or adopting a covered call strategy. The market may have a demand for profit - taking due to the release of short - term positive factors [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the liquidity of funds during the tax period, and the bond market may rebound [12]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Market fluctuations are due to the release of second - quarter economic data and the current high profits of steel mills. In the short term, the market may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate in cash - futures positive spreads [15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Affected by industry policy expectations, the black series has risen, and coking coal and coke continue to rebound. In the short term, they are expected to maintain the rebound trend, but in the medium term, they may be weak due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies [16][17]. Ferroalloys - It is estimated that the supply gap of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will narrow significantly in July. It is recommended to hold short positions as the supply - demand structure weakens marginally [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be considered for short - selling when the market sentiment weakens; glass long - position holders at low levels can consider holding. The market has stabilized and risen today, following the strength of new energy varieties [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: It is recommended to short at high prices due to factors such as reduced risk appetite and increased inventory accumulation expectations. In the future, it can be bought at low prices during the peak consumption season. Alumina: It can be short - term long to repair the discount, but in the long term, there is an oversupply pressure [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state due to supply disturbances and market sentiment [22]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong operation, but there is no continuous upward driving force due to high supply elasticity [23]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile operation, but due to the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton price is in a volatile rebound. It is recommended to hold long September and short January positions cautiously at high levels. The focus is on macro and supply - demand changes [27][28]. Sugar - The domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile due to low domestic inventory and expected increase in imported sugar [30][32]. Eggs - It is recommended to short on rebounds as the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and the futures price is over - valued [34]. Apples - It is recommended to conduct light - position positive spreads. The price may weaken in the short term, and attention should be paid to the output and price of early - maturing apples [35]. Corn - The futures price is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price is affected by policy support and substitution from wheat [36]. Red Dates - It is recommended to lightly short. The market is currently in the physiological fruit - dropping period, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term [37]. Live Pigs - It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [38][39]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the long term. It is recommended to short at high prices [41]. Fuel Oil - The price is weaker than that of crude oil, and the fundamentals are gradually becoming looser [42]. Plastics - It is recommended to hold put options or be slightly short as the supply - demand situation is weak [43]. Rubber - It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Short - buying on dips can be considered, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level pressure [44]. Methanol - The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to be short after a rebound or consider put options [45]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term [46]. Asphalt - It follows the trend of crude oil, and its fundamentals are in the seasonal off - season with only rigid demand [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is not recommended to chase long positions, and short - selling on approaching pressure levels is recommended [48]. Pulp - The 09 contract is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to use strategies to increase income when holding spot goods [49]. Logs - Be cautious when going long, pay attention to the basis change, and consider hedging strategies [49]. Urea - It is recommended to buy on dips as the futures price has a callback demand and there is an upward driving force [49][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market is influenced by various factors including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events. Different sectors and commodities show diverse trends and investment opportunities [12][15][37]. - For macro - finance, the stock index futures market may have profit - taking demand, and the bond market may rebound. In the black market, it is expected to be mainly in a short - term shock state. For non - ferrous metals and new materials, different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions. In the agricultural products market, prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies. The energy and chemical industry is also affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [12][15][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The Chinese government is focusing on strengthening the domestic cycle and regulating the new energy vehicle industry. The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo was opened. NVIDIA's CEO believes that China's open - source AI promotes global progress, and the next wave of AI will be robot systems [8]. - From July 1 - 13, the national passenger car market retail volume increased by 7% year - on - year, and the new energy market retail volume increased by 26% year - on - year. Trump said he probably won't fire Powell, and he is considering trade agreements and tariffs. The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and the Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity [9]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the support of the moving average and consider gradually taking profits or adopting a covered call strategy. The market may have profit - taking demand due to the release of macro data and company reports [12]. Bond Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the capital situation during the tax period, and the bond market may rebound. The central bank's reverse repurchase increases to protect the capital during the tax period. The economic data shows that the annual growth target pressure is reduced, and the bond market may correct the pricing of capital and supervision [13]. Black Market Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Market fluctuation reason: The release of economic data led to a weak performance in the black market. - Future market view: The policy expectation has improved in the short - to - medium term, but it is more likely to be stable overall. The downstream demand has seasonal and marginal weakening, and the supply will remain at a high level. The steel valuation may increase, and the short - term market may be mainly in shock [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - View: Affected by policy expectations, the black - series commodities rebounded, driving the double - coking to continue to rebound. In the medium term, it is still under pressure due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies [16]. Ferroalloys - Market outlook: In July, the supply gap of double - silicon is expected to narrow significantly, and the supply - demand structure will weaken marginally. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: With the decline in risk preference and the increase in inventory accumulation expectations, it is recommended to short at high prices. In the off - season, it can be bought at low prices for the peak - season consumption [21]. - Alumina: In the short term, it can be bought to repair the discount. In the long term, it is under pressure due to over - supply and high inventory [21]. Zinc - View: The inventory has increased, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak. The zinc price will oscillate and decline [22]. Lithium Carbonate - View: It will mainly operate in a wide - range shock before the impact of the mine - end disturbance is determined [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, but it may return to the over - supply situation due to the high elasticity of supply. The market is expected to be in shock [24]. - Polysilicon: The anti -内卷 signal has been issued, which may deviate from the over - supply contradiction in the short term. The supply - demand difference may return to the inventory - accumulation expectation [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: The cotton price is still in the process of shock and rebound. It is recommended to hold the long - September and short - January trade [27]. Sugar - Logic and view: The domestic sugar price is under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar and the decrease in import costs. It will run in shock in the short term [28]. Eggs - View: It has entered the seasonal rise, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the long - term anti - arbitrage combination [30]. Apples - View: It is recommended to conduct light - position positive arbitrage. The market is in a range - bound shock [31]. Corn - View: The market is in shock. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the valuation repair opportunity after the market decline [32]. Red Dates - View: It is recommended to lightly short. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short term, and the market is in the bottom - range shock [33]. Pigs - View: The spot price is declining, and it is recommended to short the near - month contract lightly [35]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by trade wars and the global economic situation. It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and it is recommended to short at high prices [37]. Fuel Oil - The price is weaker than that of crude oil, and the fundamentals are gradually becoming looser. The market is affected by factors such as power - generation demand and shipping [38]. Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold put options or have a slightly short - biased allocation [39]. Methanol - The port inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock. It is recommended to short after a rebound or consider put options [41]. Caustic Soda - The futures contract is expected to be in a weak shock. The weakening of liquid chlorine will support the price in the short term [42]. Asphalt - It follows the price of crude oil and is stronger than crude oil. The fundamentals are stable during the rainy season [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is still recommended to short at high prices. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations and trends [44]. Pulp - The 09 contract is expected to be in shock. It is recommended to adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating puts for those holding spot goods [45]. Logs - The 09 contract is expected to be in shock. Pay attention to the downstream start - up and port inventory [46]. Urea - Affected by rumors and market fundamentals, the price has a downward drive, but it is not advisable to short aggressively. It can be considered to buy at low prices [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff 2.0 on copper and copper products has a negative impact on the macro - sentiment. The tariff of 50% on copper and copper products starting from August 1st is beyond market expectations, causing a divergence in the trends of US and London copper, with the price difference widening to $2000 - 3000. The tariff will lead to a decrease in copper flowing from non - US regions to the US, alleviating the supply pressure in non - US regions and having a negative impact on London and Shanghai copper prices. Short - term copper prices will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. The recommended strategies are to short on rallies and sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Weekly Review 3.1.1 Weekly Data - **Supply - side**: The spot TC of copper concentrate was $44.25/ton, up $0.46 or 1.04% week - on - week. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1848 yuan/ton, down 1011 yuan or 54.72%. The southern crude copper processing fee remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton. The operating rate of refined copper rods was 64%, down 3 percentage points or 5.11%. The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 25%, up 0.7 percentage points or 2.66%. The operating rate of wire and cable was 68%, down 4 percentage points or 5.47% [7]. - **Inventory**: The available days of copper concentrate port inventory were 5.6 days, down 0.2 days or 3.09%. The social inventory of electrolytic copper was 14.29 million tons, up 0.47 million tons or 3.29%. The bonded area inventory was 7.29 million tons, up 0.59 million tons or 8.09%. The total global inventory was 50.04 million tons, up 4.05 million tons or 8.09% [7]. - **Valuation**: The spot smelting comprehensive profit was - 3850 yuan/ton, up 561 yuan or 14.58%. The long - term smelting comprehensive profit was - 317 yuan/ton, up 541 yuan or 170.69%. The import profit was - 970 yuan/ton, up 659 yuan or 67.93% [7]. 3.1.2 Comprehensive Logic - Affected by the copper tariff expectation, about 400,000 tons of copper (about half a year's import volume in the US) has been imported into the US in advance. After the tariff is implemented in early August, the flow of copper from non - US regions to the US will stop, and the supply pressure in non - US regions will be alleviated. The tariff policy has a negative impact on London and Shanghai copper prices. Short - term copper prices will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3.1.3 Fed Rate - cut Path - The report provides the expected interest rate changes and implied overnight interest rates of different regions and time points in the US through the federal funds futures and OIS models, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's rate - cut path [11]. Part 2: Copper Industry Chain 3.2.1 Price/Spread/Cost/Profit - **Price**: The report presents the historical data of SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper term structure, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, and LME3 closing price [13][16][21][23]. - **Spread**: It shows the historical data of the Shanghai - London ratio, Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate), and LME(0 - 3) premium/discount [23]. - **Cost/Profit**: The report provides the historical data of spot copper import profit, electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (including by - product sulfuric acid), feed - processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit for long - term contracts [25][27][29][31]. 3.2.2 Copper Supply/Demand - **Supply**: It includes the production of copper concentrate in Chile and Peru, the import volume of copper concentrate, scrap copper, and crude copper, and the production and import volume of electrolytic copper [33][37][40]. - **Demand**: - **Copper Rod - Cable**: The operating rates of refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire, as well as the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper rod lines are presented [44][45]. - **Cable Terminal - Power Grid**: The cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion amounts are provided [46][47]. - **Copper Tube - Air Conditioner**: The operating rate of copper tubes, the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper tubes, and the production, domestic sales, and export volumes of household air conditioners are shown [54][55]. - **Copper Plate - Strip**: The operating rate of copper plate - strips, and the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper plate - strips are presented [58][59]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: The monthly production and sales volumes of automobiles and new - energy vehicles are provided [61][62][64]. - **Brass Rod - Real Estate**: The operating rate of brass rods, the monthly and cumulative housing completion areas, and the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large cities are shown [67][68][70][72]. 3.2.3 Copper Inventory - **Domestic**: The report provides the historical data of domestic copper inventories, including social inventory, bonded area inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory, and SMM copper concentrate port inventory [73][74]. - **Overseas**: It shows the historical data of overseas copper inventories, including LME electrolytic copper inventory, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, and global refined copper inventory [76][77]. Part 3: Capital Position 3.3.1 Copper External Market Position - On July 8th, the non - commercial long - position ratio of CFTC was 35.1%, slightly lower and basically flat, and the net long - position increased to 39,600 lots. On July 11th, the net long - position of LME investment funds was 32,182 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6990 lots [83].